He won us the game! Maul him!

Orioles 2, Mariners 1

Moving the Needle: J.J. Hardy comes up with the walk-off single, +.463 WPA. This game came in two acts. First was regulation, in which the two pitchers dueled to a stalemate. The second was a series of one-inning playoffs. The Mariners struck first, scratching across a run in the top of the third playoff. They went to their closer, since it they were on the road and it was no longer a tie game. Brandon League immediately allowed a single and then plunked two straight batters. His shortstop, Luis Rodriguez, who absolutely deserves a mention, saved at least a run, and maybe the game, with a diving catch on a line drive. League wouldn’t get so lucky with Hardy at the plate. He grounded one up the middle and brought both runners home. Both acts were rich entertainment.

Notables

Justin Vargas: 9 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 12 GB. Coming into the game Vargas had an ERA inflated by a couple of bad starts. But in four of his seven starts he allowed two or fewer runs. That ERA dropped from 4.68 to 3.87. Despite the eight base runners, he never really got too deeply into trouble, which, I suppose, is why he was able to hold them scoreless for nine.

Zach Britton: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 12 GB. Game Score goes to Britton on this one. He faced 29 batters and only used 108 pitches to get through those nine innings. In five of his eight starts he has given up 1 or zero runs, combining for a line of: 34.2 IP, 20 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 11 BB, 16 K, 52 GB.

Also in this issue: Braves 6, Nationals 5 | Rays 7, Indians 4 | Cardinals 9, Cubs 1 | Royals 11, Yankees 5 | Mets 9, Rockies 5 | Giants 3, Diamondbacks 2

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In terms of position players, the Pirates at least have something going. They have four above average position players age 25 or younger, and a few promising players on the way. Better yet, two of the current young players, along with a couple of the up-and-comers, occupy premium spots on the defensive spectrum. It might not guarantee them a powerhouse offense for years to come, but it’s a fine foundation.

When we move to the other side of ball and look at Pittsburgh’s pitching, we see a completely different story. There is plenty of room for optimism, sure, but it’s mostly based on wishes and dreams. It’s certainly not based on the current major league staff. Few, if any, of them will be around in the next few years.

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Guess where that one’s headed.

Tigers 9, Twins 7

Moving the Needle: Jhonny Peralta homers to put the Tigers back on top, +.467 WPA. Do you like high scoring games? Do you like multiple lead changes? Then you probably should have been watching the Tigers and Twins square off yesterday afternoon. Only one inning passed without either team scoring a run, the sixth, and even then both teams loaded the bases. In the eighth, with the Twins on top 6-5, the Tigers seemingly struck the definitive blow when Jhonny Peralta hit a long two-run homer to left. It flew farther than the two-run shot that topped the charts in Tuesday’s game. The Twins caught a break in the bottom of the inning when they scored on an error, but the Tigers again struck in the ninth, this time holding the lead and taking the game.

Notables

Jason Kubel: 2 for 3, 1 HR, 2 BB. That’s only his fourth home run of the year, yet his wOBA has crossed the .400 mark.

Victor Martinez: 3 for 4, 1 HR, 1 BB. He has three hits in each of his last three games, including four doubles, two home runs, and three walks. That’s one way to compensate for missed time.

Brandon Inge: 2 for 5, 1 3B. His ninth-inning triple put the Tigers on top for good.

Also in this issue: White Sox 6, Angels 4 | Nationals 7, Braves 3 | Orioles 4, Mariners 2 | Cubs 11, Cardinals 4 | Rays 8, Indians 2 | Phillies 5, Marlins 3 | Astros 4, Reds 3 | Royals 4, Yankees 3 | Padres 13, Brewers 6 | Blue Jays 9, Red Sox 3 | Dodgers 2, Pirates 0 | Giants 4, Diamondbacks 3

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While examining the Pirates this week, I’ve found myself asking the same question again and again: how important is it for the team to get the .500-record monkey off its back? Put another way, I’ve been wondering what portion of its resources it should use to help the 2011 team for the 2011 team’s sake, and what portion it should use to help the 2012 and beyond teams actually contend. Clearly the focus is on 2012 and beyond, since the goal is contention, not a .500 record. Still, teams have to consider the present for many reasons, including fan interest. If the Pirates continue winning at a reasonable clip, the front office could face some tough decisions in July.

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Dude, seriously?

Orioles 7, Mariners 6

Moving the Needle: Felix Pie ties the game in the 13th, +.489 WPA. After three scoreless extra frames, the Mariners finally came through with a run, capitalizing on a double that led off the 13th. They had a chance for more, too, but they couldn’t scratch across that one insurance run. Too bad, say the Orioles. They started off the inning strong as well, putting runners on first and second with one out. Pie came through with a single up the middle, and then, after Jake Fox got cut down at the plate trying to score the winning run, Matt Wieters came through with the game winner.

Fun: Both teams had potential go-ahead (or winning) runs cut down at the plate. The Orioles looked silly trying to score in the ninth, while the Miguel Olivo just wasn’t fast enough to score in the 12th.

Notables

Adam Jones: 3 for 6, 2 2B. He had only three doubles on the season heading into the game.

J.J. Hardy: 4 for 5, 1 HR, 1 BB. That’s a nice welcome back from the DL. His first homer of the year, yes. Further he had more hits in this game than he did in in his first six games of the season cobined.

Also in this issue: Angels 6, White Sox 2 | Nationals 7, Braves 6 | Cardinals 6, Cubs 4 | Indians 5, Rays 4 | Mets 4, Rockies 3 | Tigers 10, Twins 2 | Marlins 2, Phillies 1 | Rangers 7, A’s 2 | Brewers 8, Padres 6 | Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 6 | Dodgers 10, Pirates 3 | Giants 1, Diamondbacks 0 | Yankees 3, Royals 1 | Reds 7, Astros 3

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There’s something interesting about every team, at every point in the season. Each week I’ll examine a different one, tackling a different topic each day. This is normally a Monday post. Forgive it’s tardiness.

Hell yeah, they’re over .500, bros!

Last night, with a 4-1 victory over the Dodgers, the Pirates pushed their record to 18-17. That means that they have at least one more day with a .500 or better record, which, at this point, is significant in Pittsburgh. When they wrapped up a victory on Sunday they reached .500 again, the latest date at which they had an even record since 2004. After that things got pretty ugly, which makes this year’s run that much more enjoyable.

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Sorry for the lack of graphs. The site apparently thinks it is yesterday morning. This post should update soon after things get sorted out.

Youk’s idea of a celebration: tackling the dude to the ground and rolling around in the grass with him. Awk-ward.

Red Sox 2, Twins 1

Moving the Needle: Carl Crawford doubles home the winning run from first, +.356 WPA. It almost didn’t get this far. It took a balk and some help from the luck dragons to push across the tying run in the top of the eighth. Scoreless they remained until the bottom of the 11th, when Jed Lowrie drew a one-out walk. Jose Iglesias stepped in as the pinch runner, and when Carl Crawford flied one towards the Monster, Iglesias was off. (He was running with the pitch, but had to pause momentarily at second to make sure the ball would indeed hit the wall.) Ben Revere’s poor throw didn’t help, and Iglesias scored with relative ease, giving the Sox the game and a 3-1 series victory, after dropping the first game.

Notables

Josh Beckett: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 9 GB. Not his strongest start of the year, but it was, on a normal night, good enough to win in regulation. He has given up just 10 runs in 45.1 IP this season.

Also in this issue: Pirates 4, Dodgers 1 | Tigers 10, Blue Jays 5 | Phillies 6, Marlins 4 | Reds 6, Astros 1 | A’s 7, Rangers 2 | Brewers 4, Padres 3 | Rockies 2, Mets 1 | White Sox 8, Angels 0

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Pirates over Astros, 2 games to 1

Moving the Needle: Sunday, Ryan Doumit brings the Pirates all the way back with a three-run shot, +.596 WPA. Now this is the kind of WPA swing I’m talkin’ ’bout. The Pirates had a 2-0 lead in this one, but the second the bullpen entered the game things got dicey. As in, the bullpen blew the lead and left the Pirates down 4-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth. But after a single and a walk Doumit absolutely crushed one, putting his team on top 5-4. Joel Hanrahan closed it out, giving the Pirates the game and the weekend advantage.

Notable Pitching

Charlie Morton: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 12 GB.

James McDonald: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K. He really needed this one. That’s three straight serviceable starts for him. Now, if only he could pitch into the seventh.

Astros 3, Pirates 2
Pirates 6, Astros 1
Pirates 5, Astros 4

Also in this issue: Angels over Indians | Reds over Cubs | Rays over Orioles | Nationals over Marlins | Red Sox over Twins | Mets over Dodgers | White Sox over Mariners | Yankees over Rangers | Cardinals over Brewers | Tigers over Blue Jays | Padres over Diamondbacks | A’s over Royals | Braves over Phillies | Giants over Rockies

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Earlier this afternoon Dave raised an interesting point regarding newly promoted Royal Eric Hosmer. Plenty of prospects have produced high BABIPs in the minors, which has led to results that simply aren’t sustainable in the majors. Among the BABIP casualties he lists is Alex Gordon, former top prospect turned bust, who is now ripping through the league with a .385 wOBA. Yet much of his success this season rides on his .380 BABIP.

This is clearly — wait for it — unsustainable. Gee, how did I ever come to that conclusion? Of course, if it were merely a matter of inflated BABIP driving Gordon’s success, he wouldn’t warrant a further look. You could glance at the number on his player page, see that it’s out of line with his career totals, and write him off as lucky and a severe regression candidate. But it’s not that simple. BABIP is not composed 100% of luck.

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Indians 4, A’s 3

Moving the Needle: Ryan Sweeney doubles home the tying run and sets up more, +.392 WPA. Down 2-1 in the eighth, the A’s started to rally, putting runners on first and second with one out. Sweeney came through with a bloop to left that brought the tying run around and set up second and third, giving them a chance to go ahead without a hit. But they didn’t take the lead, and it cost them in extras. Craig Brewslow surrendered two in the 12th, and while Sweeney drove in a run to cut the deficit, Hideki Matsui cold not come through to bring home the runner from third with two outs.

Notables

Brett Anderson: 9 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 20 GB. Seriously, standing O for Anderson. Tough luck in this one.

Jack Hannahan: 1 for 5. That’s not much in the box score, but he drove in the go-ahead run in the 12th.

Lou Marson: 3 for 5, 1 3B. His 12th inning single also gave the Indians a needed insurance run.

Also in this issue: Angels 11, Red Sox 0 | Diamondbacks 3, Rockies 2 | Tigers 6, Yankees 3 | Braves 2, Brewers 1 | Royals 9, Orioles 1 | Reds 10, Astros 4 | Mets 5, Giants 2 | Mariners 3, Rangers 1 | Phillies 7, Nationals 3 | Rays 3, Blue Jays 1 | Cardinals 6, Marlins 3

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