It came down to the last day, but thanks to a Padres loss the Braves have earned a playoff spot. In the first round they’ll match up with the Giants, whose rotation we profiled on Friday.

1) Tim Hudson CHONE: 3.95 nERA, 3.76 FIP
2010: 2.8 WAR, 4.09 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 3.89 tERA, 2.83 ERA

For Tim Hudson, 2010 was all about preventing hits on balls in play. His .250 BABIP was the lowest of his career by 11 points — and that previous low came in 2003. He combined this with the highest ground ball rate of his career, 64.1 percent, and the highest strand rate, 81.2 percent. With all that and a low line drive rate, it’s no wonder that he greatly outperformed his component ERAs.

The Braves schedule actually works out well for Hudson. As the Game 1 starter for the Wild Card team, Hudson would make at least one start in each series on the road. In the LDS he’d start Games 1 and 5 on the road. While away from Turner Field he has struck out fewer, walked more, and has given up more home runs. That has led to far worse results and component numbers. But, since he started on Sunday he’ll be out for Game 1, and could sit out Game 2 as well, given the performance of Tommy Hanson.

2) Tommy Hanson CHONE: 3.86 nERA, 3.55 FIP
2010: 4.4 WAR, 3.31 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 3.23 tERA, 3.33 ERA

Hudson might have produced the best results on the season, but Tommy Hanson has been the Braves’ best pitcher in the second half. He hit a bump in the road during May and June, but since then has been on fire. He’ll likely start Game 2, but could just as easily lead off each series for the Braves.

If there is one concerning factor with Hanson it’s his strikeout rate. In the first half he struck out a batter per inning; in the second half he struck out just 69 in 100.1 innings. Yet his defense turned those additional balls in play into outs at an efficient clip, as evidenced by Hanson’s .233 second half BABIP. He has also avoided walking too many hitters and has kept the ball in the park.

At 24 years old, Hanson just might be the Braves’ best bet in the playoffs.

3) Derek Lowe CHONE: 4.27 nERA, 3.87 FIP
2010: 2.8 WAR, 3.89 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, 4.23 tERA, 4.00 ERA

He hasn’t been the Derek Lowe that the Braves signed after the 2008 season, but the 2010 version was a bit better than the 2009 one. Lowe actually came very close to his career marks in FIP and xFIP, and even his ERA was with in 0.15 of his career average. Compared to last year he struck out more, induced a few more ground balls, and left more runners stranded on base. The Braves might be disappointed, but overall his numbers fell in line with reasonable expectations — especially given his 2009 season.

While the Braves, especially on offense, stumbled through September, Lowe posted his best month of the season. He struck out 8.51 per nine, walked just 0.88 per nine, and allowed only a single home run. He compensated for a .335 BABIP by leaving a staggering 91.8 percent of runners stranded. He’ll need to continue riding that wave into October, and he’ll be the one to kick things off. He hasn’t started since September 29, and will likely be Bobby Cox’s Game 1 starter on Thursday.

Question marks

4) Jair Jurrjens CHONE: 3.99 nERA, 3.79 FIP
2010: 1.3 WAR, 4.19 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 4.28 tERA, 4.64 ERA

After two excellent seasons in Atlanta, Jurrjens experienced his worst in 2010. Much of that was due to injury. He got off to a terrible start, but then bounced back. But he has had problems lately, and hasn’t started a game since September 14. There was a chance he’d throw in the bullpen this weekend, but that didn’t happen. It sounds like he might make a Game 4 start, but there are no guarantees. I’m not sure how the Braves can be overly confident in him, given that this is his second leg issue of the year.

5) Brandon Beachy CHONE: N/A
2010: 0.5 WAR, 2.48 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 3.66 tERA, 3.00 ERA

6) Mike Minor CHONE: 4.21 nERA, 3.94 FIP
2010: 0.6 WAR, 3.77 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.64 tERA, 5.98 ERA

Given the situation, I would think the Braves turn to Lowe in a potential Game 4 before going to Hanson or Hudson in Game 5. If Jurrjens is ready maybe they go there, but I’m not so sure they’d turn to either rookie to start a playoff game.

Minor was the first one up, recalled when Kris Medlen went down with an elbow injury in early Augut. He performed well at first, but a few bad starts did him in. He hasn’t gone longer than five innings since August 22. There’s a chance he works out of the bullpen, though. He did get in a scoreless inning and a third of work on Friday.

Beachy, called up for a start on September 20, pitched well in his three outings, two of which came against Philadelphia. Still, there’s little chance they’d let him start in the postseason. He made it into the sixth inning just once. While his peripherals are good, he won’t keep up his homerless streak. That could bite the Braves in the playoffs. I wouldn’t count him out of the bullpen, but I doubt the Braves start him based on three September appearances.

With their afternoon win followed by a Padres loss, the Giants have clinched at least a tie for the NL West crown. All they have to do is win one game at home this weekend to put themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2003. Even in the unlikely event of a sweep they’ll still have a Game 163 on Monday. They’d head down to San Diego for that one, since the Padres have the season series at hand. But that scenario is still not likely. The odds are heavily in favor of San Francisco playing in the postseason.

While the Phillies have a seemingly unstoppable rotation, the Giants have a formidable staff themselves. There is only a small chance that the two will meet in the NLDS — it would take San Diego winning the West and San Fran taking the Wild Card over Atlanta. But this would be one amazing NLCS pitching match-up.

1) Tim Lincecum CHONE: 3.40 nERA, 2.60 FIP
2010: 5.2 WAR, 3.16 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 3.47 tERA, 3.43 ERA

This hasn’t been Lincecum’s finest season, nor has he been the best pitcher on the Giants. But he has still been excellent, despite the narrative that something is wrong with him. Regardless of his standing among his rotation-mates, he lines up to start Game 1 of the NLDS.

While Linecum’s strikeout rate is down this year, 9.79 per nine against 10.42 in 2009 and 10.51 in 2008, he still leads the NL. His home run rate has almost doubled from last year, but he’s still in the Top 20. His FIP ranks eighth and his xFIP ranks fourth. In other words, a down year by his standards is still an ace-like one. A Lincecum – Tim Hudson NLDS Game 1 sounds like a thrilling one.

2) Matt Cain CHONE: 3.88 nERA, 3.77 FIP
2010: 4.4 WAR, 3.51 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 3.31 tERA, 2.95 ERA

Tonight Cain gets the first shot at delivering the NL West title, as he’ll take the hill for the Giants. This is the second straight year Cain has produced an ERA under 3.00, an the fourth in a row in which he has outperformed both his FIP and xFIP. He has, however, been a bit closer to his tERA this year, mainly because of his lower line drive rate, 16.8 percent against 18.7 percent last year and 22.8 percent in 2008. Yet he’s still outperforming that. Some guys simply defy their component ERAs.

One noticeable change in Cain this year is that he’s lost about a mile per hour off his fastball, as suggested by both the BIS data and PitchFX. Yet heh asn’t let it get in the way of his effectiveness. The BIS data has him throwing the changeup a bit more often, and at a lower speed than in previous years. The PitchFX data differs slightly in changeup usage data, but reports the same trend in velocity. It also appears that he’s getting a bit more movement away from left-handed hitters.

Just as Lincecum matches up with any other team’s ace, Cain can stack up to any other No. 2 pitcher he’ll face.

Question Marks

I’m placing the next three pitchers as question marks, because I honestly have no idea how San Francisco will line up their staff in the postseason. Barry Zito pitches on Saturday, so he would line up for a Game 3 start. But he hasn’t pitched as well as Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. Will the Giants go with Zito and his playoff experience, or a lefty who has pitched better? I’ll bet on the experience, just because that’s how these things seem to go.

3) Barry Zito CHONE: 4.47 nERA, 4.39 FIP
2010: 2.2 WAR, 4.25 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, 4.31 tERA, 4.08 ERA

In April it appeared as though we were witnessing the Great Barry Zito Resurgence. In 35.1 innings he produced a 1.53 ERA and 2.66 FIP. It was clear that he wouldn’t continue pitching like that all season, but he had a chance for a quality third season in San Francisco. But then in May he had a 4.50 ERA and 4.81 FIP, which evened out his numbers a bit. Later he had an August every bit as bad as his April was good, 7.76 ERA and 6.24 FIP, which has made his season look rather pedestrian on the whole. Yet given his veteran status and playoff experience he’ll probably get the ball in Game 3 — though I hope I’m wrong.

4) Jonathan Sanchez CHONE: 4.42 nERA, 3.91 FIP
2010: 2.6 WAR, 4.01 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 3.67 tERA, 3.15 ERA

For the first time in his career Sanchez has out-performed his FIP, and the Giants’ staff is all the better for it. He has continued his career-long trend of being a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher who allows about an average number of home runs. The difference this year is that he’s limited line drives to 14.6 percent, which has in part caused a dip in his BABIP to .263 from a career mark of .301. A 78.7 percent strand rate has also helped his ERA.

Based on his results for the 2010 season, Sanchez seems like the pick for a Game 3 start. There’s the risk that his walks come back to haunt him, or that he sees some hits fall in that didn’t during the regular season, but that’s a risk with any pitcher. He has produced the results this season, and the Giants should give him a chance to finish his strong finish to the season (1.17 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 10.86 K/9 in September).

5) Madison Bumgarner CHONE: 4.78 nERA, 4.45 FIP
2010: 2.0 WAR, 3.66 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 3.59 tERA, 3.00 ERA

He’s just 20 years old, but Bumgarner has been a major contributor for the Giants this season. And, as is the case with Sanchez, he’s finishing the season strong. In 32 September innings he has a 1.13 ERA and 1.96 FIP, striking out a batter per inning along the way. His BABIP is a bit high at .340, but he’s helped off-set that with a 92.5 percent strand rate. It’s been quite a month, and if the Giants think they can ride that into October they should hand him the ball in Game 4. It’s a long shot, of course, with both Zito and Sanchez on the roster. But if the Giants want to go on results, it will be Sanchez and Bumgarner taking the ball while Zito watches from the bench. The more likely scenario is that Bumgarner finds a place in the bullpen.

The term “must-win game” is overused to the point of rendering it useless. When fans, panicking over a June slump, call Game 68 a must-win, it tends to lose all meaning. Yet there are still games that a team must win if it will advance to the playoffs. By that strict definition, the Padres are not in a must-win situation tonight. Even if they lose and the Giants win they’ll still be three back in the division with three games against the Giants this weekend. But prayers of a four-game sweep, including Game 163, are not ones that are frequently answered.

Turning to Garland

With their last chance to gain ground before the weekend series in San Francisco, the Padres will hand the ball to Jon Garland. It will be the second time this season he has faced the Cubs. The first was on August 17, when he shut out Chicago through seven innings. That was at Wrigley Field. This time he’ll have a bit more margin for error while pitching at home in Petco Park. But as we know, past performance is no guarantee of future gains — especially when that past performance comprises just one outing.

During his first season in San Diego, Garland has realized a few changes from years past. He’s striking out nearly six per nine innings, a mark that he hasn’t approached previously in his career. The closest he came was 5.23 per nine back in 2002. He’s also walking a ton of batters, four per nine, which is the highest rate he’s realized since walking 4.23 per nine in 117 innings as a 21-year-old. Yet his FIP and xFIP are still within one standard deviation of his career average. So why, then, is his ERA so low at 3.58?

A career-high 52.4 percent ground ball rate has to play into the reason for Garland’s success. Only in 2008, when pitching for the Angels, did he come close to keeping half of his balls in play on the ground. That has helped his tERA, 4.31 against a career average of 5.19. He has also realized good results on balls in play, as his .267 BABIP is his lowest since 2005. His strand rate, 75.4 percent, is also his best since 2005. It’s no surprise, then, that his ERA also approaches his 2005 mark.

The Padres have to be comfortable with Garland taking the hill in a season-making game. He’s had success at Petco this season, a 3.19 ERA in 101.2 innings, and has generally been among the team’s top pitchers. If the Pads continue to play stellar defense, Garland should be just fine.

Offense stumbling

The Padres haven’t had a very good offense all season. At 4.15 runs per game they rank 11th in the NL. That includes a September swoon in which they’ve scored just three runs per game and have scored zero or one runs seven times. In their next four games they will play the Nos. 10 and 9 offenses in the NL, so they’re not at a distinct disadvantage. But they still have to score more than three runs per game in their final four. That’s going to be a rough proposition when facing San Francisco and its No. 2 pitching staff. Thankfully for them, the Cubs have allowed the fourth most runs in the NL, so perhaps tonight they can put up a crooked number in support of Garland and, ultimately, their playoff hopes.

Out of their control

In a way the Padres control their own destiny. If they win their next four games they will, at worst, force a one-game playoff with San Francisco. If the Giants drop the finale to Arizona tonight, a four-game win streak (five counting last night) will put the Padres alone atop the NL West. But, again, banking on sweeping a team that is not only ahead, but has also played better baseball of late, does not always reap rewards.

Before they take on the Cubs at 6:35 EDT this evening, the Padres will certainly be in the clubhouse watching San Francisco play Arizona. If Arizona can defeat Madison Bumgarner, the Padres will move to within 1.5 games of first. A victory on their part would put just a single game between the two teams heading into their weekend series. The Padres, then, would only need to win two of three on the road in order to force a Game 163. If the Giants win, the Padres must then win all three games in San Francisco.

The Braves also present an obstacle for the Padres. A game and a half currently separates the two teams, meaning San Diego desperately needs a win tonight to stay within one game heading into the final weekend. Atlanta plays Philadelphia at home, and while they fight for their playoff lives Philly will be worried about resting up for the NLDS; they already have home-field advantage locked up. While Philly swept Atlanta just last week, the stakes are different this time. Philly won’t lay down for Atlanta, but they also won’t be starting Roy Halladay. It doesn’t guarantee Atlanta anything, but it certainly makes for a match-up more favorable than the last one.

The importance of tonight

While the Padres can retain their postseason hopes even with a loss tonight, a win will go a long way. Here’s the general breakdown.

If the Padres lose tonight, they need:

1) To sweep San Francisco this weekend, whether San Fran wins or loses today.

or

2) To take two of three from San Francisco and have the Phillies sweep the Braves.

Winning tonight changes that a bit. A San Fran win means that a sweep is still required, but it does make San Diego’s Wild Card hunt a bit easier. In that case they would need to take two of three while Philly takes two of three. And if San Fran loses it means that San Diego has to take only two of three to force a tie.

In any scenario it will not be an easy path to the postseason for San Diego. Their hopes ride on winning, and possibly sweeping, a series on the road against a team that not only has a better record, but also has been playing much better baseball lately. It also means getting help from a team that has nothing left to play for. That doesn’t bod well. But it does make for some excellent September baseball.

Starting pitching fuels playoff runs. That’s why Matt and I are running down the rotations for each postseason participant. But bullpens also play a large role in the postseason. A starting pitcher can go seven strong and put his team in a position to win, but a poor relief outing can ruin all of his hard work. Which AL teams have the best unit to back up their starters?

First, let’s look at team relief stats. On Monday Jeff went over shutdowns and meltdowns and how they affect playoff teams. Here we’ll look at some similar data, plus some other factors, for just AL teams.

SD = shutdowns, MD = meltdowns, IS% = inherited runners scored rate, BSv% = blown save rate, WPA/LI = situational wins

It appears as though each team’s bullpen excels in a different area. The Twins don’t fare well in shutdown to meltdown ratio, but they also allow the lowest percentage of inherited runners to score. The Yankees and the Rays have identical SD/MD ratios and nearly identical inherited runner rates, but the Rays’ bullpen blows far fewer save opportunities. The Rangers’ bullpen might allow inerited runners to score, but it can absolutely shut down a team. Both the Rangers’ and the Yankees’ bullpens have more situational wins than their competitors.

The difference between the postseason and the regular season is that the lesser arms in the bullpen won’t get much work in the postseason. With that in mind let’s look at the key relievers on each team.

Tampa Bay Rays

Closer: Rafael Soriano

Soriano might not be the strikeout machine he was in Atlanta, but he’s still getting his share of whiffs. To compensate he’s shaved plenty off his walk rate, which means he’s putting fewer men on base. His .210 BABIP furthers that cause, to which his 0.78 WHIP is a testament. The Rays have also done a nice job keeping his workload limited, just 61.1 innings in 63 appearances, so he should be fresh for the playoffs. If not for the agelessness of another closer, he might be the best in the playoffs.

Relief Ace: Joaquin Benoit

After he missed all of 2009 recovering from shoulder surgery, Benoit had to settle for a minor league contract. The Rays were the beneficiaries of that. Benoit has become an irreplaceable part of their bullpen, bridging the gap between the starters and Soriano. Oddly enough, he’s throwing harder than ever, with a fastball that averages 93.9 mph. He has used that to strike out 72 of the 209 batters he’s faced, an 11.11 per nine ratio. Even though he has a BABIP under .200, his fielding independent numbers back up his dominance (2.53 FIP, 2.64 xFIP). He’s also done the one thing a fireman must: leave men on base. His strand rate sits at a ridiculous 94.8 percent, and he’s allowed just two of 23 inherited runners to score (9 percent). If the Rays enter the eighth with a lead teams will find it exceedingly difficult to mount a comeback.

Of note: Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler

The Rays have gotten an excellent season out of Balfour after a shaky 2009, and it has added great depth to the bullpen. He’s good for a strikeout when they need one, and he generally keeps the ball inside the park. Wheeler can also come up with a big K, mostly when facing right-handed hitting. Touted prospect Jake McGee has come on fairly strong in September and would give the Rays a better look from the left side than Randy Choate. But he still walks way too many batters.

New York Yankees

Closer: Mariano Rivera

We need not revisit the lore of Mariano Rivera. His track record, and particularly his postseason track record, speaks for itself. He experienced a rough stretch in September, which can be alarming for a 40-year-old closer. But until he proves otherwise it is inadvisable to bet against Rivera.

Relief ace: David Robertson

After a shaky start to the season Robertson has turned into the Yankees true relief ace. Joe Girardi is willing to use him in any critical spot regardless of inning. He frequently comes in with men on base, though he has allowed 30 percent of those runners to score. But he does come up with strikeouts, 10.28 per nine.

Of note: Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan

Had Wood been with the team all season he might have earned Girardi’s trust as the relief ace. As it stands, he fills more of a traditional setup role. Since coming to the Yankees he has allowed just one run in 25 innings, striking out 29 and walking 15. He has also allowed just one of 10 inherited runners to score, and could certainly could hear his name called when there are men on base. Chamberlain has been a bit shaky, but has come on later in the season. After two rough stints that included far too many walks, Logan has shown that he can get out lefties and even stay in the game to face a righty if need be.

Minnesota Twins

Closer: Matt Capps

Giving up prospect Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps didn’t sit well with many Twins fans at first, but they’ve hardly had reason to complain about Capps’s performance in the closer role. He’s not anyone’s idea of an overpowering guy, but he strikes out a healthy number while limiting his walks and keeping the ball inside the park. He’s no Joe Nathan, but he’s as good a replacement as the Twins could find.

Relief ace: Matt Guerrier

While Jon Rauch might play a more traditional setup role, Guerrier is the guy Ron Gardenhire calls on with runners on base. This season he has taken the responsibility for 45 runners not his own, and has allowed only 10 to score. Three of them came when he surrendered a grand slam in May, so he’s been even more effective otherwise. He might not strike out a ton of guys, which would seem a requirement for a pitcher coming in with men on, but Guerrier has been successful despite that.

Of note: Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes

Clearly the Twins have a deep bullpen. Removed from the closer role when the Twins acquired Capps, Rauch has remained an effective reliever. He limits walks and strikes out a decent number, key components of an effective reliever. Mijares started the season poorly but has been dominant ever since. Crain is back to being the guy the Twins had a few years ago, though his walks could become a problem. Fuentes has proven an effective waiver acquisition; he has yet to allow a run as a Twin.

Texas Rangers

Closer: Neftali Feliz

Last year Feliz was a sensation. This year he’s playing a key role on the Rangers’ first playoff team since 1999. He brings the excellent combination of high strikeouts and low walks, and even though he pitches home games in a hitter-friendly park he has limited his home runs and extra base hits. He rounds out an excellent AL playoff closer crew.

Relief ace: Darren O’Day

He might not be the most recognizable pick, but he has been one of the Rangers’ most effective setup men. He has picked up 50 batters and has allowed just 13 to score. Like Feliz he suppresses homers, another important aspect of a relief ace. He’s the guy Ron Washington will turn to in a key spot.

Of note: Frank Francisco, Darren Oliver, Alexi Ogando

Even though Ogando has thrown just 40.1 innings, he has taken on 30 inherited runners. He has allowed 12 to score, so perhaps he won’t get the call in a big spot. But he can bring it with a clean slate. Francisco was removed from the closer role early but has regained his effectiveness in a setup role. Darren Oliver continues to amaze at 39 years old. He, too, will come in with men on base, especially to face a tough lefty.

With one more win or a Cardinals loss, the Cincinnati Reds will be the second National League team to clinch a playoff spot. That gives them time to rest their guys and line up their playoff rotation. But unlike the Phillies, the Reds don’t have a dominant top three — they don’t even have a dominant top one. That makes their playoff rotation decisions a bit more interesting. We could see them go a number of ways, though it does appear clear who will start the first two games.

1) Bronson Arroyo CHONE: 4.55 nERA, 4.70 FIP
2010: 1.8 WAR, 4.65 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 4.67 tERA, 3.97 ERA

I think Stan McNeal of The Sporting News put it best when he described Arroyo as, “the Reds’ No. 1 for his experience more than his stuff.” Chances are he’ll get the ball in Game 1, and given the results he has produced this season that might not be a bad thing. He has kept his ERA under 4.00 through 208.2 innings, a remarkable feat given his DIPS numbers. His 5.05 K/9 ranks seventh worst among MLB starters with at least 170 innings, and his 1.21 HR/9 ranks ninth worst among the same group. Yet his 3.97 ERA outpaces his 4.65 FIP, in no small part because of his .249 BABIP. That’s the lowest in the NL and second lowest in MLB.

With BABIP it’s easy to fall into the trap of writing it off as luck and expecting a regression. In Arroyo’s case that has to be somewhat true. Last year Randy Wolf and Ross Ohlendorf ranked among the league’s lowest in BABIP, and both have seen a nearly 30 point rise this year. But that overlooks two points: 1) a regression won’t necessarily occur in the playoffs, and 2) Arroyo might have changed something that has aided his low BABIP. It does appear that he is going to the changeup and curveball more often and the slider far less often than in year’s past. I’m not sure if that has made a difference in his BABIP, but it’s more constructive, I think, to ponder these possibilities than to write it off to luck and assume he’ll regress.

Arroyo might not be anyone’s prototypical No. 1 starter, but he’s done well by the Reds in the past few years. They might have a physically more capable pitcher on staff, but it appears they’re comfortable giving the ball to the veteran in Game 1.

2) Johnny Cueto CHONE: 4.58 nERA, 4.32 FIP
2010: 2.7 WAR, 4.07 FIP, 4.34 xFIP, 4.40 tERA, 3.73 ERA

Good things can happen when you allow fewer home runs. In many ways Johnny Cueto’s 2010 season looks like his 2009 one. His ground ball and strikeout rates are fairly close, while his BABIP is nearly identical. There are two noticeable differences, though, in his rate stats. First is his walk rate, 2.82 per nine down from 3.20. That has moved his WHIP from 1.36 to 1.28. That might not seem like a lot, but it does mean fewer base runners. That plays into the next change, his home run rate. Thanks to an 8.8 percent HR/FB ratio, down from his 11.2 percent rate from last year, Cueto has reduced his home run rate from 1.26 per nine to 0.96 per nine. If, all other aspects being equal, a pitcher puts fewer runners on base and allows fewer homers, it stands to reason that his ERA will drop. That is the case with Cueto, whose 3.73 ERA is a stark improvement over his 4.41 mark from last year.

While the Reds will clinch in the next day or so, they still have something to play for in the season’s final week. Finishing ahead of the NL West leader means they’ll start the NLDS at home, which is favorable with Cueto on the mound in Game 2. He has fared much better at home this season, striking out more batters, walking fewer, and allowing fewer home runs. This is all the more remarkable because The Great American Ballpark ranks eighth in ESPN’s HR Park Factors. That trend might not carry over into next season, but that doesn’t matter right now. As long as it carries over into the playoffs the Reds will be in a good position.

3) Travis Wood CHONE: 4.29 nERA, 4.31 FIP
2010: 2.2 WAR, 3.39 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 3.89 tERA, 3.46 ERA

I had originally planned to put Wood in the question marks section, but then I read Redleg Naton, where Chad Dotson convinced me otherwise:

Travis Wood is a no-brainer, as far as I’m concerned. He’s the only lefty, and he’s earned it.

Earned it he has. Though he’s thrown just 96.1 innings this year, Wood has shown the Reds plenty. While CHONE isn’t so optimistic about him sustaining his current production, his fielding independent numbers suggest otherwise. As you can see, his FIP and tERA aren’t too far off of his actual ERA, though his xFIP is a bit higher. That’s because of a 6 percent home run to fly ball ratio. It’s tough to say at this point in his career whether that’s a sustainable mark, but Wood has given us little reason to doubt he’ll continue keeping balls in the park for the rest of the season.

What’d odd about Wood is that he hasn’t gotten much experience at his home ballpark. Of those 96.1 innings, only 16 have come in Cincinnati. The results in those 16 innings have been fine, but that’s not to say that they’ll stay that way. A few unlucky breaks on fly balls could break a playoff game. I do wonder if this, combined with Cueto’s home numbers, would move the Reds to ensure that Wood starts on the road. That would be easy if they start the NLDS at home. But would Baker and Co. start Wood in a Game 2 on the road and Cueto in Game 3 at home? It seems like an odd move based on relatively small samples, but we’ve seen odder things.

Question marks

The final two spots in the rotation are up for grabs, though it appears that Edinson Volquez has the upper hand.

4) Edinson Volquez CHONE: 4.12 nERA, 3.98 FIP
2010: 0.7 WAR, 4.35 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 4.25 tERA, 4.45 ERA

While Volquez’s 2010 numbers appear above for the sake of uniformity, they don’t really tell us anything about what we can expect in the playoffs. He didn’t get a start until later in the season and so had pitched just 56.2 innings. Yet even that is misleading. After an excellent season debut against Colorado, Volquez stumbled a bit. The breaking point was a 0.2-inning, 5-ER start against the Giants on August 23. On August 31 the Reds optioned Volquez to class-A in hopes that he could rediscover his form. They recalled him in time for a September 11 start, and since then he’s been quite strong: 21.2 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 7 BB, 23 K. The only problem is that he’s faced three non-playoff teams in that span.

When he’s good Volquez is the ace of this staff. He does have trouble with control, but his stuff helps make up for that. If he comes anywhere near his 2008 levels he will provide Cincinnati with a favorable matchup in any Game 4. The only question remaining is of whether he’s really back or not. He’ll get another audition tonight against Houston, though again that’s not the most strenuous test. Still, it seems as though the Reds will give him a shot in case of an NLDS Game 4.

5) Homer Bailey CHONE: 4.56 nERA, 4.43 FIP
2010: 1.8 WAR, 3.89 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.32 tERA, 4.59 ERA

While the top of the Reds rotation has outperformed its fielding independent numbers, Bailey has fallen short of his. That has evened out a bit in September, as he sports a 3.72 ERA, but to trust September numbers is a folly. Three of the five teams he faced were out of the race, and so had no reason to put out the A lineup. He did fare well against the Padres last time out, striking out six and walking just run in a seven-inning, two-run performance. But one start does not a postseason campaign make.

Maybe a move to the bullpen for the playoffs will be good for Bailey. The Reds have to hope it will be, because that seems like the move they’ll make. It’s tough to make a case for trusting Volquez at the moment, but at least he’s had success in the majors. Bailey has yet to experience a sustained run of good starts. He still has some promise, but in terms of this year’s playoff rotation it appears he’s the odd man out. Maybe a strong final start, combined with a Volquez implosion, will change Dusty Baker’s mind. But I doubt it.

Matt has already started looking at AL playoff rotations. Since the NL demands equal treatment, we’ll also look at the rotations for those six teams. The only sensible starting point is the team that has already clinched. As with Matt’s, we’ll go with each pitcher’s basic season numbers, plus the park- and defense-neutralized ERA (nERA) from the CHONE August projections and the FIP derived from that.

1) Roy Halladay CHONE: nERA 3.15, FIP 2.84
2010: 6.5 WAR, 3.07 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 3.44 tERA, 2.53 ERA

Halladay has done exactly what everyone expected following his move to the National League. His ERA, 2.53, is his lowest since 2005, which is in some part due to his high strand rate, 82.5 percent. On one hand, that could change in the playoffs when he’s facing the better lineups in the league. On the other hand, the Phillies could face the Giants in the first round.

Even still, there’s little reason to doubt Halladay. He’ll be pitching more innings than in years past, but that doesn’t seem like much of a concern. The way Halladay has thrown the ball in the past five years it looks like he could keep going forever.

2) Cole Hamels CHONE: nERA 3.88, FIP 3.66
2010: 3.9 WAR, 3.09 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 3.74 tERA, 3.70 ERA

In 2010, Hamels has established himself as a model DIPS pitcher. For the past three seasons now he has sported nearly identical FIP numbers while seeing fluctuating ERAs. Last year was a down year, a 4.32 ERA, but this year he’s back to the 3.09 mark he had in 2008. Chances are Charlie Manuel will name him the Game 2 starter, if for no reason other than his handedness. But that doesn’t take away from Hamels’ excellent season.

Like Halladay, Hamels has a higher strand rate than normal. That’s about the only bad thing about him. His groundball rate is higher than ever and he’s striking out a batter more per inning than he did in 2008 and 09. While the Phillies had questions about Hamels heading into the 2009 playoffs, there are none this year. It’s like 2008 all over again, only this time the Phils have a pitcher even better to take the ball in Game 1.

3) Roy Oswalt CHONE: nERA 3.86, FIP 3.58
2010: 4.7 WAR, 3.29 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 3.42 tERA, 2.80 ERA

While the CHONE formula projects Oswalt to perform a bit worse than he has, it’s tough to watch his starts and come to a similar conclusion. Even with his rough first start for the Phillies, he has a 1.76 ERA and 3.07 FIP with his new, contending team. Even though he’s 32 he’s proven that he’s durable. He’s also worked through a long playoff run, pitching almost 270 innings in 2005.

In 2009, the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee at the trade deadline, and he led them through the regular season, into the playoffs, and eventually to the World Series. In 2010, Roy Oswalt doesn’t have to do that. Just as the Phillies have 2008 all over again with Hamels, they have 2009 all over again with Oswalt replacing Lee. Only, again, they have the best pitcher in the league taking the ball in Game 1, and another top of the rotation starter in Game 2.

4) Joe Blanton CHONE nERA 4.52, 4.26 FIP
2010: 1.9 WAR, 4.34 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 4.58 tERA 4.94 ERA

As long as the Phillies hang onto the NL’s best record, they won’t even need Joe Blanton in the first round. They can simply skip him over and start Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt on normal rest in all five games. He only becomes a factor in the ALCS and World Series, and even then it’s just one game. Even then it’s not all downside. His 4.94 ERA might look ugly, but as you can see nearly every component ERA rates him a bit better. This doesn’t make him a good pitcher; it simply means that having him start once a series shouldn’t kill the team. There’s a chance, too, that Blanton makes zero postseason starts.

Update: On the advice of commenter NEPP I checked the splits, and Blanton has seemingly gotten better every month this season. His overall numbers are certainly hurt by his first two months, which came after he missed April with an injury. He has also struck out 30 in 29 innings this month, which boggles the mind. I’d still advocate a three-man rotation, but with the way Blanton has been pitching and with the decisions Manuel made last year I’m fairly certain he’ll stick with having his guys on normal rest.

Question marks

The only question mark facing the Phillies rotation is of whether they’ll take the 2009 Yankees’ route and use only three starters. As David Murphy explained last week, Oswalt, Hamels, and Halladay can start 17 of 19 postseason games. But perhaps Charlie Manuel learned last year that going all-in is the right tactic.

Because the only off-days in the LCS occur between Games 2 and 3, and Games 5 and 6, the Phillies would have to throw each of their starters on short rest in order to avoid Blanton. That changes the situation somewhat; the Yankees were able to get through the 2009 playoffs with three pitchers largely because they got an extra day off in the LCS and had to throw only CC Sabathia on short rest in that round. But unless the Phillies find themselves up 3-0 heading into Game 4, it sounds like a good move for Manuel to go with Halladay.

It’s tough to pick against the Phillies in the NL as it is right now. Imagine if they throw out the inferior fourth starter and just go with their top three throughout the playoffs. They already have three of the top five or six playoff starters. If they throw only those three I don’t see how any other team stacks up.

It doesn’t take much for a hot streak to turn cold. Two weeks ago the Rockies were plowing through opponents en route to a 10-game winning streak. They lost some momentum with two straight losses to the Padres, but then came back to win three straight, putting them within a game of the NL West and within 2.5 of the Wild Card. But two straight losses have dropped them to 2.5 games out of the West with 12 games to play. That’s a tall order with two teams sitting in front of them.

Tonight the Rockies play the second of three games in Arizona, and it is the definition of a must-win. This isn’t just because of their position in the standings, but because they have their ace on the mound. If the Rockies can’t pick up a game, or at least stay even, with Ubaldo Jimenez pitching then they’re going to have an awfully tough time gaining any ground in the West. This is also Ubaldo’s first shot at 20 wins. While that’s normally not that important, it is in this case. The Rockies need not only for Jimenez to pitch well, but they need to support him with runs.

Part of the Rockies’ late-season advantage was their number of games at home. At 51-24 they have the second best home winning percentage in the league. While they’ll return home for an important series against San Francisco this weekend, they’re stuck in the Phoenix for the next two games. Thankfully for them Jimenez has been excellent on the road this season. While he has a higher walk rate on the road, he also has induced far more ground balls away from Coors Field, 56.4 to 41.3 percent. His FIP, 3.13, is a bit higher, but not much. His xFIP, 3.67, is a bit lower. In terms of results he has a 2.50 road ERA compared to 3.23 at home.

When facing the Diamondbacks this year Jimenez has fared very well. In 126 PA during 33 innings opponents have hit .197/.248/.333 against him. That has led to just six runs. The Diamondbacks have also struck out 28 times and drawn just eight walks while homering twice. Of the players he will face tonight, only Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche have hit him well in their careers, though neither has homered off him. Stephen Drew is 8 for 32 with five walks and four doubles as well. Miguel Montero might be a nuisance as well; he is just 3 for 23 lifetime off Jimenez, but two of those hits have been home runs.

According to pitch type values, Jimenez matches up well against the Diamondbacks. The Arizona offense has hit knuckelballers and cutters particularly well, and are also above average against the fastball. Jimenez does go to the fastball often, 62.5 percent, but many of those are sinking two-seamers. The Diamondbacks tend to flail against sliders, curveballs, and changeups, all three of which Jimenez features in his arsenal.

Even if the Rockies lose they do have a chance to pick up ground against San Francisco this weekend. That might make this seem like a less important game. But it’s not. It seems like everything plays in their favor this evening. With their ace on the mound against one of the worst regular pitchers in the NL, there is no excuse to drop the game.

Sometimes early impressions stick with us and play disproportionate roles in our judgments. Case in point: this week’s FanGraphs Audio, in which we discuss postseason awards. After spending a good chunk of the show’s 40 minutes discussing the Cy Young and MVP cases, we kind of gloss over the Rookies of the Year. They seem so obvious. Jason Heyward stands out from the pack in the NL. In the AL, Austin Jackson established himself early and is the rookie WAR leader. Does that mean his case is as clear-cut as Heyward’s?

Beyond Jackson, the only player any of the panelists named as an alternative was Rays’ catcher John Jaso. Playing catcher certainly helps his case, as does his .377 OBP and .345 wOBA. Since his recall in mid-April he has accumulated 370 PA, mostly batting leadoff against right-handed pitchers. The platoon role obviously cuts into his playing time, which affects his WAR. A negative DRS hurts a bit, too, but it still leaves Jaso with 2.3 WAR, sixth among AL catchers. That certainly makes a strong case, but I’m not sure it’s stronger than Jackson’s.

Yesterday, a commenter asked a good question: Why hadn’t anyone mentioned Danny Valencia? I’m sure we could give a number of reasons, but I think it really comes down to one thing: Valencia has accumulated just 273 PA this season, which means he won’t appear on any default leader boards. That’s nothing but laziness on our parts. Considering what a remarkable season he has put together, he certainly warrants at least a mention for the AL Rookie of the Year award. Consider this post a mea culpa.

For years, third base has been a weak spot for the Twins. They’ve had a mix of good and bad defenders play there, but on the whole none of them could hit. Here is their 3B wOBA since they lost Corey Koskie:

2005: .306
2006: .309
2007: .293
2008: .320
2009: .309

Of course, the only year they fielded remotely respectable offensive third basemen, they finished with a -11.3 UZR, fourth worst in the majors.

Heading into the 2010 season Valencia represented the possibility of an upgrade at the position. He put up excellent offensive numbers through AA, though he did struggle a bit at AAA. Even so, Baseball America ranked him the Twins’ No. 6 prospect and had nothing but good things to say about his offensive skills. “He has the bat speed to get to good fastballs and trusts his hands, staying back on breaking balls and using the whole field,” they wrote on their prospect list. They also praised his ability to play third, but noted that he would need more work to fulfill his potential defensively. Still, it sounded like he could be a solid answer to the team’s void at the hot corner.

Apparently the Twins didn’t think Valencia was ready at the start. They optioned him to AAA, leaving the third base job to Brendan Harris and Nick Punto. That predictably turned out poorly. Harris hit just .170/.260/.239 through May, and Punto hit .221/.287/.284 in limited duty thanks to a groin injury. The Twins needed help, and even though Valencia struggled with his power stroke in AAA they called him up in the beginning of June.

For his first month the power remained dormant, as he had just one double in 50 PA, a .022 ISO. But in July he surged, producing a .492 wOBA on the strength of six doubles and a homer. While he came back down to earth a bit in August, Valencia has again torn the cover off the ball in September, a .417 wOBA through 53 PA. It all adds up to a .373 wOBA in 273 PA, which amounts to 2.8 WAR. Despite the two-month handicap, Valencia still ranks fifth among AL third basemen in WAR.

Considering Valencia’s torrid production during his three and a half months, I think his case is a bit more solid than Jaso’s. He has a higher WAR in fewer plate appearances. For those who don’t like to make cross-position comparisons, especially with catchers, based on WAR, Valencia also has a better batting component than Jaso. For that matter, he has a higher batting component than Jackson. That, I think, should earn him consideration for the award.

When the votes are tallied in November, I still believe that Jackson will win the AL ROY award. He has gone wire-to-wire as the Tigers’ center fielder and leadoff hitter, and has put up attractive numbers. He might have an unsustainably high BABIP, but that shouldn’t factor into the award voting. Valencia makes a strong case, and if he had come up maybe three weeks earlier I think he’d be in more serious consideration. But because Jackson has put up his numbers in more than twice the number of plate appearances, I think it goes to him. The Twins might have found their third baseman of the future, and I wouldn’t complain at all if he snuck in and won the ROY. But right now Jackson still looks like the man.

At this time last year, the future seemed uncertain for Marcus Thames. Although his OBP was above .300 for the first time in two years, he was hitting for less power than he had in his entire career. That’s not a good sign for a guy whose sole skill is hitting a baseball hard. The extra times on base were nice, but when combined with the reduced power it amounted to a .329 wOBA. That’s not bad for a fourth outfielder that can play defense, but Thames had proven so poor in the field that he was relegated mostly to DH duty in 2009. The Tigers cold have brought him back, but the possibility of a non-tender loomed.

The situation actually never got to that point. Faced with re-adding players from the 60-day disabled list, the Tigers released Thames in early November. That made him a free agent one year early. It wasn’t going to lead to big money, but there were a few teams that could have used a righty DH/OF with some pop. Yet as the winter wore on it became clear that teams just weren’t interested in Thames. He didn’t sign a contract until early February, and even then it was a minor league deal with the Yankees. Since they had Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann in camp Thames wasn’t at all guaranteed a spot. But despite a poor spring the Yankees did add him to the 25-man roster.

The idea at first was to platoon him in left field with Brett Gardner, but a combination of Thames’s horrible defense and Gardner’s excellent play brought that to an early halt. It took injuries to starting DH Nick Johnson and center fielder Curtis Granderson for Thames to get more opportunities. He took advantage, producing numbers that were previously thought to be out of his reach. Through 212 PA he is hitting .299 with a .368 OBP and a .214 ISO. It amounts to a .382 wOBA, easily the highest of his career. As with any player performing at that level it raises the question of what team will sign Thames for next year.

Since his batting average is 50 points higher than his career mark we can assume that he is playing above his head. A BABIP more than 80 points higher than his career average confirms that idea. This might signal that he’s due to regress and will become a burden to any team that signs him next season. Yet that might not exactly be true. While there is little chance that Thames will hit .299 with a .360 BABIP next season, might he be a useful bench option for a team looking for a little pop against left-handed pitching?

Throughout his career Thames has been known as a lefty-masher. His career wOBA against lefties is .362 against just .332 when facing right-handed pitching. The Yankees understand this, as they’ve sent him to the plate 123 times against lefties and 89 times against righties. The Tigers sent him to the plate against righties more often than lefties in each of his six seasons there. At first glance, this might seem like the key to Thames’s increased production this year. He does, after all, have a .370 wOBA against left-handed pitching. But the Yankees have seen him succeed smashingly against righties, too. In those 89 PA he has seven home runs and has walked 10 times, amounting to a staggering .398 wOBA.

An 89 PA sample is an awfully small one, so it would be unwise to draw from it conclusions about Thames’s ability to hit righties. In fact, running his numbers through the xBABIP calculator we get .264, which is exactly his career BABIP against righties. His performance this season, unsurprisingly, is an anomaly that shouldn’t fetch him a better contract. Even his numbers against lefties this season seem a bit inflated. He has a .383 BABIP against them, which according to the xBABIP calculator should be closer to .290. That is, again unsurprisingly, right around his career mark.

It would seem, then, that Thames’s numbers just don’t add up this season. His expected numbers appear to be right around his career averages, while his actual performance soars above his previous production. That should buy him a job on some team’s bench next season, and in that capacity he could continue to succeed. By limiting his appearance against right-handed pitching teams can avoid exposing his greatest weaknesses. There has to be at least a little concern about his BABIP-fueled numbers against lefties, but given his career success against them it might not prevent him from helping a team.

The aura of a top prospect can continue to glow long after the player has proven ineffective. There’s always a glimmer of hope that with a fresh start in a new organization the former prospect can fulfill some of his promise. Rarely does it actually happen. In this way the Royals have gotten lucky. During the off-season they signed Wilson Betemit to a minor league contract. About two months into the season they called him up, and he has been a major contributor ever since. While it’s doubtful that his current performance will carry over to next year, the Royals still might have found a useful player for 2011.

Betemit’s story begins in 1996 when, at age 15, the Braves signed him to an amateur free-agent contract. That turned out to be a big mistake. MLB mandates that international free agent signings must be at least 16 years old. The Braves and Betemit eventually reached a new agreement, but MLB did bar the Braves from signing Dominican prospects for six months. Betemit did play in the GCL in 1997 and returned there in 1998, but in neither year did he stand out. It wasn’t until he reached the Appalachian League in 1999 that he truly broke out, a .320/.383/.463 line in 291 PA. That earned him the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s Top 100.

In 2000, playing in the New York-Penn League, Betemit’s stock continued rising. He hit .331/.393/.457 in 308 PA and moved up to No. 29 on BA’s prospect list, and reached No. 1 for the Braves. In 2001, he didn’t overly impress in the Carolina League, but he absolutely tore up the AA Southern League. After he hit .355/.394/.514, the Braves called him up for September. Before the 2002, season BA rated him the No. 8 prospect in baseball. That was the height of his fame. He wouldn’t crack a .336 OBP again until 2004. By 2005, he was out of options and had to stay with the major league team, though his .337 wOBA made him a good utility infielder. In 2006, Betemit produced a .355 wOBA in 219 PA before the Braves traded him to the Dodgers.

Betemit was actually traded at the deadline in both 2006 and 2007, and in both instances he went from performing well with the first team to stumbling with the second. After a disappointing 2008 season the Yankees traded him to the White Sox in the Nick Swisher deal. He performed miserably in his 50 PA there and didn’t fare much better in AAA, so the White Sox let him go. That’s where the Royals come into play. They took on no risk by signing Betemit to a minor league deal, but they have realized plenty of reward. Even though nine Royals have more PA than him this season, he is still third on the team in WAR.

It doesn’t take much more than a glance at Betemit’s BABIP to see that his .410 wOBA won’t last much longer. While he has always been a high-BABIP guy — .333 career rate — a hits on balls in play rate of 38 percent is obviously unsustainable. Running his results through the xBABIP calculator we can see that a .314 BABIP is a more reasonable figure. Assuming all non-BIP results remain the same Betemit would have 63 hits instead of 73. That would lower his average from .317 to .274 and his OBP from .399 to .361. If those missing 10 hits were all singles it would reduce his SLG from .552 to .509. Going one step further, if we assume a career average BABIP and all the same non-BIP results, Betemit would be hitting .287/.373/.522. Either way he’d still be having a productive season.

After the season the Royals will have a decision to make. Betemit’s service this year will push him over the five-year mark, meaning he has one year of arbitration remaining. Should the Royals make the offer? His performance this year, even adjusted for a high BABIP, suggests that it would be a wise move. Other factors should also move the Royals to tender him a contract this December. It won’t be a risk-free decision this time around, but it’s one that a team like the Royals should make.

In terms of salary the Royals shouldn’t worry. They have a few arbitration cases to deal with, including Billy Butler, but for the most part the money coming off the books — Jose Guillen, most notably — should more than offset those raises. Betemit also doesn’t figure to earn top dollar in the arbitration process. His peak salary was $1.3 million, so he should be in the $2 million range, $2.5 million tops. Considering the Royals had previously committed $1.7 million to Willie Bloomquist in 2010, they can surely afford a few hundred thousand extra for Betemit.

Betemit would also have a chance to amass some playing time early in the year. This year he has spent the majority of his time manning third base, and that position figures to be open this off-season. The Royals have Mike Moustakas on the rise, but chances are he’ll start the 2011 season in the minors to hold back his arbitration clock. That means the Royals could have a few months where they need a third baseman. Josh Fields is one option, though he hasn’t done much in the majors. Signing Betemit, then, could give the Royals a solid option at third base until Moustakas arrives. Even after that Betemit can serve as a backup at most positions.

The Royals have a farm system that could lead to a bright future, but expecting them to contend in 2011 is still a bit optimistic. Prospects like Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Montgomery are still a few years away from realizing their potential, if they are going to at all. But that doesn’t mean the Royals should just punt on the season. They have a useful player on their team who will be available at a fairly reasonable salary. Wilson Betemit might not be a long-term solution, but he can certainly help lay the bridge between the present and the future. There seems little reason for the Royals to not tender him a contract this December.