The AL Playoff Bullpens
Starting pitching fuels playoff runs. That’s why Matt and I are running down the rotations for each postseason participant. But bullpens also play a large role in the postseason. A starting pitcher can go seven strong and put his team in a position to win, but a poor relief outing can ruin all of his hard work. Which AL teams have the best unit to back up their starters?
First, let’s look at team relief stats. On Monday Jeff went over shutdowns and meltdowns and how they affect playoff teams. Here we’ll look at some similar data, plus some other factors, for just AL teams.
SD = shutdowns, MD = meltdowns, IS% = inherited runners scored rate, BSv% = blown save rate, WPA/LI = situational wins
It appears as though each team’s bullpen excels in a different area. The Twins don’t fare well in shutdown to meltdown ratio, but they also allow the lowest percentage of inherited runners to score. The Yankees and the Rays have identical SD/MD ratios and nearly identical inherited runner rates, but the Rays’ bullpen blows far fewer save opportunities. The Rangers’ bullpen might allow inerited runners to score, but it can absolutely shut down a team. Both the Rangers’ and the Yankees’ bullpens have more situational wins than their competitors.
The difference between the postseason and the regular season is that the lesser arms in the bullpen won’t get much work in the postseason. With that in mind let’s look at the key relievers on each team.
Tampa Bay Rays
Closer: Rafael Soriano
Soriano might not be the strikeout machine he was in Atlanta, but he’s still getting his share of whiffs. To compensate he’s shaved plenty off his walk rate, which means he’s putting fewer men on base. His .210 BABIP furthers that cause, to which his 0.78 WHIP is a testament. The Rays have also done a nice job keeping his workload limited, just 61.1 innings in 63 appearances, so he should be fresh for the playoffs. If not for the agelessness of another closer, he might be the best in the playoffs.
Relief Ace: Joaquin Benoit
After he missed all of 2009 recovering from shoulder surgery, Benoit had to settle for a minor league contract. The Rays were the beneficiaries of that. Benoit has become an irreplaceable part of their bullpen, bridging the gap between the starters and Soriano. Oddly enough, he’s throwing harder than ever, with a fastball that averages 93.9 mph. He has used that to strike out 72 of the 209 batters he’s faced, an 11.11 per nine ratio. Even though he has a BABIP under .200, his fielding independent numbers back up his dominance (2.53 FIP, 2.64 xFIP). He’s also done the one thing a fireman must: leave men on base. His strand rate sits at a ridiculous 94.8 percent, and he’s allowed just two of 23 inherited runners to score (9 percent). If the Rays enter the eighth with a lead teams will find it exceedingly difficult to mount a comeback.
Of note: Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler
The Rays have gotten an excellent season out of Balfour after a shaky 2009, and it has added great depth to the bullpen. He’s good for a strikeout when they need one, and he generally keeps the ball inside the park. Wheeler can also come up with a big K, mostly when facing right-handed hitting. Touted prospect Jake McGee has come on fairly strong in September and would give the Rays a better look from the left side than Randy Choate. But he still walks way too many batters.
New York Yankees
Closer: Mariano Rivera
We need not revisit the lore of Mariano Rivera. His track record, and particularly his postseason track record, speaks for itself. He experienced a rough stretch in September, which can be alarming for a 40-year-old closer. But until he proves otherwise it is inadvisable to bet against Rivera.
Relief ace: David Robertson
After a shaky start to the season Robertson has turned into the Yankees true relief ace. Joe Girardi is willing to use him in any critical spot regardless of inning. He frequently comes in with men on base, though he has allowed 30 percent of those runners to score. But he does come up with strikeouts, 10.28 per nine.
Of note: Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan
Had Wood been with the team all season he might have earned Girardi’s trust as the relief ace. As it stands, he fills more of a traditional setup role. Since coming to the Yankees he has allowed just one run in 25 innings, striking out 29 and walking 15. He has also allowed just one of 10 inherited runners to score, and could certainly could hear his name called when there are men on base. Chamberlain has been a bit shaky, but has come on later in the season. After two rough stints that included far too many walks, Logan has shown that he can get out lefties and even stay in the game to face a righty if need be.
Minnesota Twins
Closer: Matt Capps
Giving up prospect Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps didn’t sit well with many Twins fans at first, but they’ve hardly had reason to complain about Capps’s performance in the closer role. He’s not anyone’s idea of an overpowering guy, but he strikes out a healthy number while limiting his walks and keeping the ball inside the park. He’s no Joe Nathan, but he’s as good a replacement as the Twins could find.
Relief ace: Matt Guerrier
While Jon Rauch might play a more traditional setup role, Guerrier is the guy Ron Gardenhire calls on with runners on base. This season he has taken the responsibility for 45 runners not his own, and has allowed only 10 to score. Three of them came when he surrendered a grand slam in May, so he’s been even more effective otherwise. He might not strike out a ton of guys, which would seem a requirement for a pitcher coming in with men on, but Guerrier has been successful despite that.
Of note: Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes
Clearly the Twins have a deep bullpen. Removed from the closer role when the Twins acquired Capps, Rauch has remained an effective reliever. He limits walks and strikes out a decent number, key components of an effective reliever. Mijares started the season poorly but has been dominant ever since. Crain is back to being the guy the Twins had a few years ago, though his walks could become a problem. Fuentes has proven an effective waiver acquisition; he has yet to allow a run as a Twin.
Texas Rangers
Closer: Neftali Feliz
Last year Feliz was a sensation. This year he’s playing a key role on the Rangers’ first playoff team since 1999. He brings the excellent combination of high strikeouts and low walks, and even though he pitches home games in a hitter-friendly park he has limited his home runs and extra base hits. He rounds out an excellent AL playoff closer crew.
Relief ace: Darren O’Day
He might not be the most recognizable pick, but he has been one of the Rangers’ most effective setup men. He has picked up 50 batters and has allowed just 13 to score. Like Feliz he suppresses homers, another important aspect of a relief ace. He’s the guy Ron Washington will turn to in a key spot.
Of note: Frank Francisco, Darren Oliver, Alexi Ogando
Even though Ogando has thrown just 40.1 innings, he has taken on 30 inherited runners. He has allowed 12 to score, so perhaps he won’t get the call in a big spot. But he can bring it with a clean slate. Francisco was removed from the closer role early but has regained his effectiveness in a setup role. Darren Oliver continues to amaze at 39 years old. He, too, will come in with men on base, especially to face a tough lefty.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
While Guerrier may look as though he has become the guy that Gardenhire runs to with runners on base, that has become Jesse Crain over the last 2 months – who has been one of the best relievers in all of baseball over that span.
Just wanted to throw that out there – coming from a Twins fan, and all.
Yea, Gardy really messes up bullpen management. He overworks the arms he depends on way too much, which is why Guerrier has lost his go-to status. Hopefully he will get enough rest to pitch productively in the play-offs.
Also, Gardy will go to Fuentes in the ninth for a tough lefty, so Capps doesn’t have a perfect closing gig.
Gardy messes up bullpen management? LOL. Gardy annually takes a bunch of average arms in the pen and ends up with a bullpen ERA near the top of the league. They’ve never once had a bullpen below league average in his 9 years as manager.
Bullpen management is among his strongest assets. Who gives a crap if Guerrier is overused? Finding the next Matt Guerrier is relatively easy. BTW, “Gardy will go to Fuentes in the ninth for a tough lefty?? He’s done it once, in Fuentes very first Twins appearance. Hasn’t done it since in a save situation.
And this article is pretty poorly researched. Guerrier is, at best, the third RH option in Twins pen, behind Crain and Rausch. And Capps, of course.
Gardenhire’s bullpen management leaves plenty of be desired.
Don’t act as if he is flawless in this area, because he is most certainly not.
Francisco is likely out for the season, by the way.
Where’s my one line summary so I don’t have to read a whole essay? Can’t you just come to conclusions for me? Just tell me who’s best so I can unfairly judge the teams when they exceed/deceed expectations.
Seriously though, great read.
“But bullpens also play a large role in the postseason” — I’ve always thought that bullpens, especially in short series, are subject to such a high degree of variance that they aren’t that important of a factor in wagering on a team prior to the series starting. And should not heavily weighted in any equation in picking favorites.
I will admint they do have a role, but not as large a role as starting pitching, defense, offense, and base-running. For example, if you SP puts you in a 3-4 run whole early in a game, it usually doesn’t matter if your bullpen doesn’t give up any more damage, and further, each bullpen is shortened so that you are only featuring your three best relief pitchers in most situations. They just don’t have enough game situations to make a large impact.
still it can be so demoralizing to cough up the lead with a shaky bullpen when you have a 2-1 lead in the ninth in game 1 (ace duel so assume low scoring). sure the rotation is much more important, but locking down wins after the starter leaves with a lead is huge, and not having to worry about it is a great relief to the starter.
Joe – Nice overview and I particularly liked how you designated aces by their use in high leverage situations rather than as a proxy for the 8th-inning set-up man.
Only one minor disagreement beyond the inclusion of Francisco and that is your description of the Rays’ McGee when you write he walks way too many batters.
(1) McGee has only pitched 3.1 innings in September so we can’t conclude much from that sample size.
(2) Notwithstanding the limit in (1), it’s worth mentioning that McGee gave up three walks in his debut, lasting only one-third of an inning. He was clearly rattled and that affected his mechanics — his fastball velocity was off 5 clicks from his normal mid-90s heat according to pitchFX. Since then he has pitched 3 innings, his velocity is back to normal and he hasn’t given up a walk.
(3) In 90 innings in AAA as a starter, McGee walked 33, not a stellar rate but a pretty good one, certainly much better than Kerry Wood, who has kept runs to a minimal despite a high walk rate.
The risk with McGee isn’t his control but rather that he may fall prone again to rookie jitters.
About the Yankees, it looks like Wood is going to be the 8th inning guy, so I would list him as the bullpen ace.
Michael – I think you may be confusing the difference between the 8th inning guy and what Joe calls the bullpen ace — they are not one in the same. The ace is the reliever who is used whenever the game is most on the line regardless of the inning — it could be the fifth inning, for example. These so called high-leverage moments don’t all neatly into the ninth or eight innings, a point made in research by Tam Tango and others. That Wood is being used in the 8th makes him the traditional setup man — but not the ace. The latter is the domain of Robertson, whom Joe writes of: “Joe Girardi is willing to use him in any critical spot regardless of inning.”
Off the subject of this years pens. Who closes for TB next year? 3 of the 4 guys mentioned above are FA and they have stated they are cutting payroll(great place to start in my opinion).
Scenarios:
1.) Do they pickup Wheeler’s option ($4mm) and make him the closer.
2.) Do they sign Benoit to a one year, below value contract, and tell him it’s his to lose. Setting up a big payday next offseason if he gets the 40 saves they surely will create.
3.) Do they sign a veteran similar to Soriano’s deal or is that too expensive?
4.) Make due from within using their cheap, under control, bevy of quality starting arms?
Anyone? Beuller? Thoughts? Comments and/or insightful banter would be appreciated.
(1) I think Wheeler is too weak against lefties to be an effective closer
(2) I think other teams will spend more who are also willing to give Benoit a chance at closing.
(3) Fuentes and Putz will be free agents. Rivera will be too but the Rays can’t afford him Thornton is a free agent too but either he or the White Sox hold an option.
(4) For entirely selfish reasons I’m pulling for Jake McGee — He’s on my fantasy squad.