Heading into the 2010 season most American League teams had a plan with the DH spot. As I noted earlier this month, many of those plans failed. As we can see on the team DH leader board, only six teams have gotten better than a .321 wOBA from the hitter-only position. In some cases this was poor luck. The Angels and Blue Jays had solid plans for the DH spot but saw them blow up, while the Rays had a good hitter who just couldn’t do it as a DH or in the AL, apparently. Other teams had plans that predictably failed. The White Sox are the prime culprits here.

During the off-season the Sox faced some criticism for passing on potential full-time DHs. They instead favored a rotation that would allow them to give someone a half day’s rest every once in a while. That might sound like a reasonable tactic, but the half day’s rest is a dubious assumption. There is no study, to my knowledge, that demonstrates the effect a day at DH has on an everyday player. Employing this tactic also means the team must replace the everyday player in the field, and that usually involves an inferior player. The White Sox have certainly felt the latter effect.

Twenty times this year Paul Konerko has filled the DH spot and seven times he has taken a day off. In all 27 instances Mark Kotsay took his place at first base. In an additional 47 games Kotsay himself has served as the DH. This has been nothing but a detriment to the team. Kotsay is no longer a good hitter, and really hasn’t been one since 2004. He has a mere .304 wOBA this year after a .309 mark last year, and he hasn’t crossed the .320 mark since 2005. There was no reason to think he’d approach average production for a DH. Yet he has been their primary guy in that spot. It seems like it could have gone to a more worthy player.

Kotsay wasn’t the Sox only option heading into the year. During the off-season they had signed Andruw Jones, who spent the majority of his 2009 season at DH. They also had Carlos Quentin, who struggled with injuries in 2008 and 2009. A rotation between the outfield and DH might have served both of them well. But the White Sox couldn’t count on that, since neither played a full 2009 season. Since they couldn’t count on it, the Sox would have done well with a more solid option at DH. Instead they turned to Kotsay.

The Sox weren’t lacking for options at DH. Jim Thome expressed his desire to return to Chicago after his short stint in Los Angeles, but the Sox passed. Minnesota jumped at the opportunity, and for relative pennies they picked up a 2.4 WAR player. Jermaine Dye also wanted to return, but there didn’t seem to be any interest from Chicago. There were good reasons to avoid him, but those reasons become diminished when your team has Mark Kotsay penciled into the DH spot. CHONE projected Dye to produce 1.2 WAR on the season, and that might have been even more if he didn’t play the field. That’s a nearly two-win boost over Kotsay, who has produced -0.6 WAR.

Passing on Thome hurt the most, of course, because of the swing it caused. This is all in hindsight, of course, but it still must sting to see a three-win difference between Thome and Kotsay. That’s three more potential wins for the White Sox and 2.5 fewer for the Twins. Even rounding down that’s a five-game differential, which would have the Sox in first by a game. Even with Dye over Kotsay the Sox could be within two games of first. Instead they’re four games back against a team that has played exceptionally since late July. And the entire difference might have come down to the decision to punt the DH spot.

As Dave noted yesterday, the White Sox stand to improve by adding Manny Ramirez, perhaps to the tune of a full win upgrade in September. But they could have used those wins earlier in the year. The team made a conscious decision to keep the DH spot open this winter, and it has come back to bite them. Maybe the 20 games at DH have helped keep Konerko fresh and productive, but we can’t prove that. What we can prove is that the usage of Mark Kotsay as the primary DH has hurt the team. Other teams might have gotten burned by their DH plan, but the Sox got burned by their lack of one. If they’re still in second place on October 4, it wouldn’t be wrong to point fingers at the guy whose DH plan included Mark Kotsay.

We are now more than 10 years past the height of the shortstop renaissance. In 1999, it seemed like shortstops ruled the American League. Two of them, Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter, finished among the top 5 in the AL in wOBA, with .436 and .428 marks. Alex Rodriguez was right behind at .397, and even Omar Vizquel broke out the hitting shoes that year and produced a .379 wOBA. Royce Clayton was the fifth best-hitting AL shortstop that year with a .344 wOBA.

In 2000, we saw the trend continue. A-Rod produced a .433 wOBA and Garciaparra trailed him by a single point. Jeter remained near the top, at .399. That year six AL shortstops finished with a .340 wOBA or better, including Jose Valentin, Miguel Tejada, and again Vizquel. But in 2001 that changed a bit. While five AL shortstops finished with a .340 or better wOBA, only one, A-Rod, finished above .400. Jeter was the next closest at .379. The same held true in 2002 and 2003, with only A-Rod topping .400. But after he moved to third in 2004, no AL shortstop reached a .400 wOBA (though Jeter and Carlos Guillen both came close, each at .399 at one point.)

Even without the top-heaviness, AL shortstops remained a productive bunch. In most years they have five or six with wOBAs above .340. In 2007 that was the case, as five hit the .340 mark. The difference was that the leader, Jeter, produced a .369 wOBA, far down from the top end of years past. In 2008, AL shortstop was even further down. In 2009, it recovered a bit, mainly because of superb season from Jeter and Jason Bartlett, but in 2010 it is down again. It is, in fact, lower than it has been in more than two decades.

Here’s a chart showing the flow of wOBA for AL shortstops from 2005 through 2010:

You can see the top end tumble precipitously from 2006 through 2008, with a quick spike in 2009 and then back to the normal decline. Chances are we’re not going to see a significant uptick any time soon. The guys who topped this list either don’t play the position any more (Michael Young, Guillen, Jhonny Peralta), are aging (Jeter), or both (Tejada). Since there doesn’t seem to be any upcoming AL shortstops with big-time power potential, and since teams have placed an emphasis on defense, chances are we’ve seen the era of the shortstop come to a close, though maybe it’s more like a temporary halt.

Thankfully, shortstops need not hit like right fielders to provide value to their teams. Defense plays a big part in evaluating a shortstop. The quirk in this is that while AL shortstops are producing at a lower offensive level, they also seem to be producing a bit less in terms of UZR defense. That is the topic for another article, though.

When we heard that the Rockies placed OF Brad Hawpe on waivers, it came as no surprise. Most players on a 40-man roster are placed on waivers in August, since the process presents no downside for a team. If another team claims the player, the original team can just pull him back. But a player like Hawpe, with a $7.5 million salary, will almost certainly clear and become eligible for a trade with any team. Earlier this week we learned that Hawpe cleared. But the news that broke last night, that the Rockies had released their right fielder, came as quite the surprise.

For the past few years Hawpe has been a cornerstone of the Rockies’ offense. From 2006 through 2009 he finished third on the team in wOBA, with that production never falling below .376. Unfortunately, his defense often sapped his value. Despite producing between 15.2 and 23.7 park adjusted runs above average from 2006 through 2009, his WAR never got higher than 2.7, attained in 2006 when his fielding was average. In 2008 his UZR was -36. In the past three years no player comes even close to Hawpe’s -60.2 UZR and -29.7 UZR/150.

A player with such poor defensive performance needs a heavy bat for a team to justify a roster spot, never mind a spot in the starting lineup. Hawpe obviously had that, and to start 2010 nothing looked different. He went 15 for 42 (.357) in his first month, with eight walks (.460 OBP) and nine extra base hits (.714 SLG) for a .495 wOBA. But from there he struggled. In 80 May PA he produced a .321 wOBA and in June that fell to .269. He hit just two home runs in those 168 PA.

In late June he sat out a bit with soreness in his ribs, so there had to be home that the injury had sapped his production and that some rest would bring him back. But since his return on June 28 he has hit just .203/.314/.365 in 86 PA. He hasn’t gotten a chance to get in a groove, as he’s started three days in a row just once, and started two days in a row just twice before that. Not that he deserved to start more with his production. But some regular can find it tough to get back in a groove if they’re not getting regular playing time.

This leads into the discussion of Hawpe’s landing spot. He’s more valuable to an American League team because they can keep his bat in the lineup and his glove out of the field. But as we’ve seen with a few former NL players, the transition from two-way player to DH is not always easy. Pat Burrell never made the adjustment in Tampa Bay, and Lance Berkman struggled after his move to New York. That’s not to say that Hawpe will react similarly, but it’s a possibility. Thankfully for any acquiring team there’s little risk involved. Hawpe can be had for the league minimum.

The Rockies release of Hawpe might come as a surprise, but that’s only because of his past production. This year his value has taken a serious hit. With the Rockies out of contention his release does make a degree of sense. Chances are that unless he produced a monster year they weren’t going to pick up his $10 million option for 2011. The team set a payroll record this year at over $84 million, and already has almost $50 million committed to nine players next year. That doesn’t include arbitration raises, either. In effect, this is just Hawpe hitting free agency a month and chance ahead of schedule.

Earlier this afternoon I explored the case for Paul Janish, the shortstop who is outperforming Orlando Cabrera while the latter sits on the DL. Janish is one of many Reds bench players who has contributed to the team’s success this year. A few commenters in the post point out a couple of other bench players who might provide an upgrade if given more playing time.

The Reds outfield this year has been not so good. The three players with the most PA — Jonny Gomes, Jay Bruce, and Drew Stubbs — have wOBAs of .330, .322, and .319. Keeping Bruce and Stubbs in the outfield is understandable. They’re struggling, but they’re also young and considered part of the franchise’s future. Gomes might have the best wOBA among them, but he’s a year-to-year player at this point. In any case, his wOBA is heavily influenced by his torrid May, during which he produced a .445 wOBA. In the three months since he’s hit .304, .297, and .318.

Jim Edmonds was brought in to help, at least in a platoon with Gomes. He hasn’t hit too well since his move, but that’s a measly 15 PA sample. Chances are he’ll help fortify the outfield unit once he hits his stride. The Reds do have another guy who could help: rookie Chris Heisey. A 17th-round pick in 2002, Heisey has never been a highly regarded prospect despite quality minor league production. In 133 PA this season he’s produced a .381 wOBA. As in the case of Janish that’s likely unsustainable and could certainly drop when he’s exposed to regular playing time. But considering the way Gomes and Stubbs have hit there seems little risk in going with Edmonds, Heisey, and Bruce in the outfield on most days.

(And, if Dusty wanted to get cute he could platoon Gomes and Bruce.)

There was a mention in the comments, too, about the team’s catching situation. Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez have nearly identical wOBAs, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Hanigan has picked up a few more PA, especially of late. His season numbers, especially his .380 OBP, make an argument that he should see more time than Hernandez. But Hernandez has the edge in the power department, and his .359 OBP ranks seventh among NL catchers with at least 200 PA. Hanigan has also slumped since returning from a stint on the DL, producing a .258 wOBA in July and a .189 wOBA in August. Hernandez has a .361 wOBA in August, so if Dusty wants to stay with the hot hand he’ll give Hernandez more playing time.

This brings us to another interesting comment, that Dusty doesn’t want to mess with what’s working. There’s some merit to that, in that it sounds like a bad idea to piss off some key clubhouse guys. But I wonder what the on-field effect would be. That is, how would production suffer if a clubhouse presence like Cabrera were offended by Janish playing more often. Or if Gomes were upset over losing his spot to Heisey. If the aforementioned bench players can maintain their production when pressed into more regular duty, it would seem like they would help the team create more runs. At this point, in the middle of a pennant race, it seems like it’s at least worth a shot.

The Reds, it appears, have caught a break. Last week they dropped three straight to the Cardinals, turning a two-game NL Central lead into a one-game deficit. But since then things have turned around. St. Louis lost two of three to the Cubs and then dropped the series opener to the Brewers, while the Reds swept the Marlins and took the first game against Arizona. That has put Cincinnati back on top and has put their excellent August in better view. They’re 10-4 this month and have led the division most of the way.

One change the team made this month came when Orlando Cabrera suffered a strained oblique during the team’s August 2 win against the Pirates. This wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. While Cabrera had rebounded from an atrocious defensive season in 2009, he was by far the team’s worst producer on offense. His .289 wOBA is not only worst among Reds with 200 PA (by 30 points), but it is also third-worst among MLB shortstops. Yet despite this abject futility, Dusty Baker continued to pencil Cabrera into the No. 1 or 2 spot in the lineup regularly.

At this point in the season the Reds cannot afford to continue playing a player as ineffective as Cabrera. They’re in a race with a team that, by most measures, has more talent than they do. That means the Reds need to catch every break possible. As Seneca said, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Playing the third-worst shortstop in the league and then positioning him at the top of the order doesn’t seem like ample preparation. In fact, it seems like a detriment to the team.

The problem, of course, is finding someone who can replace Cabrera in the field and lineup while providing better production. Thankfully for the Reds, they had someone worth trying. Paul Janish, the team’s fifth-round pick in 2004, had hit well coming off the bench, a .270/.370/.413 line in 74 PA. It’s understandable why the Reds didn’t outright bench a healthy Cabrera in favor of Janish, but now that they’re getting production from the latter they owe it to the team to ride this as far as it goes. If that means benching Cabrera upon his return, that might be a necessary sacrifice.

In their pre-season 2007 rankings Baseball America had Janish as the Reds No. 9 prospect, saying that he “will go as far as his bat allows him.” That bat produced a .358 wOBA in high-A ball in 2006. Still, his best skill remained his defense. It wasn’t so much his incredible range, but as BA put it, his “nearly flawless footwork, soft hands and a plus arm.” The next year Janish fell out of the top 10, though they did rate him as having the best strike zone discipline in the system. His 12.8 percent walk rate in 2007 represented a three-point jump from his 2006 season and it came at a higher level, Double-A. A drop in power meant a lower wOBA, but the future still looked bright for young Janish.

Overall, though, Janish produced underwhelming minor league numbers. The player who had once shown promise on offense stumbled through about a full season at Triple-A, producing a .319 wOBA in his final run in 2008. By 2009 he was with the big league club, playing his expected part-time role off the bench. In 292 PA last year he produced a .275 wOBA, though he turned that into a 1.0 WAR with stellar defense. But the Reds didn’t think that was enough for him to hold a spot as a regular, so they signed Cabrera this off-season.

While Janish hit well enough in part-time duty before the Cabrera injury he has really stepped it up in his absence, going 13-for-43 (.302 AVG) with four walks (.362 OBP) and four extra base hits (.488 SLG). He has done this without the aid of a ridiculous BABIP, .292 on the season and .289 in August. This adds up to a 0.9 WAR season, which is 0.2 behind Cabrera despite having 331 fewer PA. He deserves a shot to stay in the starting lineup as long as he keeps this up.

How long will he keep it up, though? His minor league and scant major league record suggest not long. He’s had success in some regards, but nothing that suggests he can maintain a .348 wOBA for an extended stretch. But, at this point, that shouldn’t be of much consideration to the Reds. They’re in a pennant race with a tough team, and they need to find every advantage possible. If that means playing a hot-hitting Janish at the expense of Cabrera, so be it. There would be nothing worse than to remove Janish during a hot streak and replace him with the currently inferior Cabrera.

In May, the Braves surged into first place. Troy Glaus was a huge part of that. In April, the team had scored just 85 runs on the way to a 9-14 record, a major disappointment given preseason expectations. Glaus, a gamble signing, looked cooked, hitting just .194 and producing a .282 wOBA. But in May he found his groove, producing a .408 wOBA that helped the Braves score 163 runs. The gamble looked like a clear win. A .375 wOBA in June helped reinforce that notion.

Towards the end of June, Glaus started to slump a bit, going 4 for his last 38 in the month, including 0 for his final 12. The stumble has turned into a prolonged slump. Since June 18, he’s hitting just .175/.301/.279 in 183 PA. He has battled through a few nagging injuries during that time, including his left knee and left wrist. Manager Bobby Cox gave him a break in early August, but if that has helped the results haven’t shown it yet. Since his return to the lineup on August 6, he’s just 8-for-35 with one walk and three extra base hits.

What can the Braves do to keep Glaus healthy and productive? The most obvious answer would be to play him less often, something that Peter Hjort of Capitol Avenue Club advocates:

The organization has to do something about Troy Glaus, he’s not fit to play at the moment.  Disable him if you think he has something left this season, release him if not.  Call up Freddie Freeman if you want, or call up Barbaro Canizares and platoon him with Eric Hinske (the option I prefer).  Either way, you’re going to be getting a lot more from 1B than you would by continuing to play Glaus.

Freeman, the team’s No. 2 prospect before the season, is hitting .311/.371/.516 in the International League as a 20-year-old. He hits left-handed, so the Braves could set up a platoon with him and Glaus. The same can be done with Hinske, though his numbers against righties have dropped a bit since his early season success. Both platoons sound like a better situation than bringing up 30-year-old Canizares, though he his hitting quite well during his third full season in AAA, a .885 overall OPS and a .963 OPS against left-handed pitching. They might catch lightning in a bottle with him, but a Glaus platoon with either Hinske or Freeman sounds like a better bet.

The Braves could also scour the waiver wire for a first baseman. According to MLBTR’s players who cleared waivers list, Lyle Overbay is the only attractive fit. His season line of .249/.330/.420 doesn’t look too pretty, but he’s hitting .251/.344/.431 against righties and .280/.363/.517 since July 4. He does have a no trade clause, but the desire to play for a contender for the first time in his career could become motivation to waive it.

It has become clear that the Braves need to shore up their weakness at first base. With Chipper Jones done for the season the Braves need all the offensive reinforcements they can get. Indications point to Glaus wearing down, so a platoon situation could benefit him. Whether that’s with a rookie like Freeman or an import like Overbay remains a decision in the hands of the Braves front office. But they have to do something. To leave the problem alone would be to neglect a vulnerability at the worst possible time. The Braves have had a division lead since May, but it’s just two games now. The Phillies are getting healthier. The Braves have to act.

Mark Teixeira, for whatever reason, typically gets off to slow starts. Maybe it’s because he’s a switch hitter and has to fine-tune two different swings. This is the explanation he offered when the Yankees introduced him. That might not be true of switch hitters in general, but it still might be something Teixeira personally struggles with. As he explains, he’s a “power hitter that relies on timing,” so it might take him a game or 25 to get in sync. But whatever the reason, the results are clear.

Teixeira has a career .389 wOBA, but in April it is just .329. That does mean that he’s producing at an even higher level in the following five months, but those first 25 or so games still put him in a hole. This year he started off quite a bit worse, a .271 wOBA in April. He came back in May with a .365 wOBA, though that was still lower than his career .386 wOBA in May. Things got even worse in June, where he dropped to a .352 wOBA. By the end of the month it was certain that he would not reach his numbers from 2009. The chances that he’d even reach his career numbers even looked bleak.

On Monday I wrote about Raul Ibanez and the rock bottom point of his season. Not only did Teixeira have one of them, but it came at the same time. Ibanez hit his low point on June 6. Teixeira hit his on June 5 when he struck out five times in a 14-inning game against the Blue Jays, one the Yankees lost 3-2. Since then he’s been on a tear, outpacing even his 2009 season with a .299/.399/.626 line. It has come with steady improvement in both his OBP and ISO, as the following graph shows.

Click for larger

The vertical line is the five-strikeout game. Before then he was up and down, though that’s to be expected of early season numbers. But since then he has steadily increased his output. What this makes me wonder is where we’ll see these lines level off. Clearly they can’t keep going up — and the OBP line has leveled off a bit already. At some point he just won’t be able to hit for any more power, or raise his OBP above a certain point. Will that come at the end of the season? Or will he level off at some point before that?

This leads me to the further question of whether Teixeira can reach his career numbers this season. Reproducing his 2009 season is essentially out of the question. He’d have to hit .380 the rest of the way to accomplish that. But if he reaches the same 707 PA he did last year, could we see him get back to his career line of .287/.377/.540?

Teixeira has 198 PA before he hits 707. At his current 13 percent walk rate, he’d take a free pass about 25 times. He’ll also probably get hit by three more pitches (1.5 percent of his PA) and will hit maybe one more sac fly. That’s 29 PA, leaving him with 169 AB, or 602 on the season. In order to hit .287 he’d need 173 hits on the season, 62 more, so he’d have to hit .367 the rest of the way. To reach his career .540 SLG he’d need 325 total bases, or 110 more than he has now. That would mean a .651 SLG the rest of the way.

His OBP throws off the situation because of his higher than normal walk rate. For his career that rate is 11.5 percent, but to change that would throw off all the other calculations. But, just for fun, if he walked in 11.5 percent of his remaining 198 PA he’d have 23 walks, which we could make, say, 26 because of HBP and SF. That gives him 172 AB the rest of the way, so he would need a .360 BA and .651 SLG to reach his .287/.540 career marks. At the 11.5 percent walk rate he’d then reach a .386 OBP, which outpaces his career (because of the walks he took earlier in the season, I guess).

Can Teixeira hit .360/.444/.651 the rest of the way? Almost certainly not. Even at his currently torrid pace that’s an unrealistic expectation. It seems, then, that Teixeira will end the season with numbers considerably below his career marks. It happens to the best of them. But at this point his season numbers mean very little. If he continues to hit .299/.399/.626 the rest of the way I don’t think anyone in New York will complain.

In the 2008-2009 off-season Pat Burrell was in an excellent situation. After nine seasons in Philadelphia he had finally won a World Series. He had endured plenty of criticism while playing there, including particularly fervent booing in 2003. At age 31, he had options — including a possible return to the only team he had ever known. But in mid-December the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year contract, which effectively ended Burrell’s time in red pinstripes. That put him in front of 29 other teams, most intriguingly the 14 AL teams that could use him as a DH.

Looking for another championship he signed with the team the Phillies beat in 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays. The marriage seemed perfect. Tampa Bay didn’t get much production out of the DH spot during their pennant year, employing Cliff Floyd while he wasn’t injured and a ragtag bunch of below-average DHs when he wasn’t. Adding Burrell would give them a right-handed power bat to complement left-handed first baseman Carlos Pena. Best of all, it meant that Burrell’s defense would no longer subtract from his overall value.

Nothing went according to plan. The Rays spent most of the year in third place, trailing the Red Sox and the Yankees in the AL East. Their run differential made it seem as though they were perpetually poised to make a charge, but that never materialized. Burrell didn’t help the cause, turning in the worst season of his career. Even with his poor defense, a career -44.9 UZR in left field, he was able to produce at least 2 WAR in each of his seasons with Philadelphia, save for his ugly 2003 campaign. In 2009, with no defensive issues holding him back, he produced the worst wOBA of his career, .309, which amounted to -0.5 WAR, more than a full win worse than his previous worst season.

His bounceback attempt in 2010 didn’t go well either. In fact, it went much worse than 2009. Burrell produced a .283 wOBA, including a mere .131 ISO. After 24 games at DH, the Rays designated him for assignment, releasing him four days later. He’d end up somewhere for sure, probably a team like the White Sox that could have used a DH. Instead he signed a minor league contract with the Giants. It seemed like an odd pairing, a defensive statue like Burrell potentially playing for an NL team, but the Giants needed bats.

After just five games at Triple-A, the Giants recalled Burrell and slotted him into his familiar position, left field. The gamble paid off almost immediately. In 74 June PA, Burrell produced a .425 wOBA. He slowed down a bit in July, riding a .237 BABIP to a .273 wOBA, but the Giants offense covered for him, scoring 149 runs, by far their most in any month of 2010. In August he’s picked up the pace again, going 12-for-32 with five doubles and two homers. He has had a hand in 10 of the Giants’ 36 runs scored this month, so again his presence has helped the team avoid a prolonged slump.

Burrell’s recent hot streak, and really his season overall, calls into question the reasons why he failed so horribly in Tampa Bay. Does playing the field really affect his hitting ability? Does he simply know NL pitchers better, even though there are many pitchers he didn’t face during his time in the NL last decade? Was there something making him uncomfortable in Tampa Bay? In the AL? Like most issues of causation, there are likely myriad reasons why Burrell failed in 2009 and the first two months of 2010. He has apparently put that behind him, though, and is now playing a prominent role on a contending team. A year and a half later, Pat the Bat is realizing the perfect marriage he thought he had in 2009.

Bonus trivia: Did you know that Pat Burrell is the all-time leader in home runs for players born in Arkansas? The previous record holder: Brooks Robinson.

Justin Morneau played his last game of 2009 on September 12, his team 5.5 games back of Detroit, and even a half-game back of Chicago, in the AL Central. The Twins were, in fact, two games below .500 at that point, and with just 20 games remaining their chances of making up the deficit seemed bleak. They had just lost three straight and Morneau, their second best hitter, was done for the season with a stress fracture in his lower back. It looked like the MVP-Mauer-led Twins would watch from their homes in October.

What came next surprised everyone. The sans-Morneau Twins rattled off six straight wins, including the first two in a series with Detroit. They dropped that last game, but then came back to win another five straight, including a three-game sweep of the White Sox. After dropping three of four, including two to Detroit, they won their final four games of the season. With a little help from Detroit they were able to catch up and force a one-game playoff, which they also won. Including the sudden death game the Twins went 17-4 in their last 21 games. All without Morneau and his .371 wOBA.

This year the Twins started off hot, but tapered off a bit as the season wore on. Morneau had been doing his part, producing a .447 wOBA and 5.2 WAR through July 7. But on that day, while sliding into second, he took a knee to the head and suffered a concussion. That figured to keep him out for a few days, but his recovery has not gone so well. A little more than a week after the injury the Twins placed him on the DL, and to this day he remains there. There is no real timetable for his return, though it sounds like the weekend is the earliest possibility. That has to be hurting the Twins right now.

Instead of seeing the Twins fall further behind the White Sox, we’ve again seen them gain ground since Morneau’s injury. After the game during which Morneau sustained his injury the Twins fell to 45-39, 1.5 games back of Detroit and a half game back of Chicago. Losing Morneau looked like an even bigger blow this year than it was last year. Joe Mauer led the Twins then, but his production has dropped a bit this year. A .379 wOBA from a catcher is excellent, but it’s still significantly below the .438 wOBA he produced last year. Morneau has led the team this year, and so the Twins have been without their best bat for more than a month now.

The Morneau-less lineup didn’t fare as well as it did in 2009, at least off the bat. In fact, the Twins dropped three straight after the injury, scoring just eight runs in those games. That put them four games behind Detroit and 3.5 games behind Chicago. At just three games over .500 and having no idea when their best hitter would return, there was some doubt about the Twins’ season. They had gone from best team in the Central to also-rans in a short span. How could they survive without Morneau?

After those losses, though, the Twins caught fire. They beat Detroit to avoid a sweep, and after dropping the first of a four game series to Chicago they came back to win the final three. The turnaround didn’t seem evident in the next five games, as they went 2-3 against the Indians and Orioles, but following the loss in Baltimore they rattled off eight straight wins in which they scored 66 runs. Since then they have split a series at Tampa Bay, won two out of three against Cleveland, and, after last night’s 12-6 drubbing, have reclaimed first place by defeating the White Sox.

The Twins 19-10 record in Morneau’s absence might not seem particularly torrid, but it does outpace their season record by a decent margin. After the loss on July 7 they had a .536 win percentage, so they’ve won more since then. Even crazier, after the initial three losses they’ve gone 19-7, a .731 win percentage. It’s not quite the .810 win percentage of their final 21 games in 2009, but it has been enough for them to retake sole possession of first place in the Central for the first time since July 2.

A graph of the Twins performance since Morneau’s injury. Thanks to Tommy Bennett for whipping this up. Click for larger.

While the typical talk radio reaction might involving lamenting Morneau’s return — they’re better without him, just look at the standings! — clearly it will be a nice boost for the team. Michael Cuddyer filled in admirably at first for a while, producing his best month of the year, but his bat has again tapered. But even when Cuddyer was hot he was no match for Morneau’s production. Few players in baseball are.

The Twins have made a nice run, and with one more win in the next two days against Chicago they’ll be set up well as they return home for nine games. Chances are we’ll see him back in the lineup some time during that stretch. That should scare other teams, particularly the White Sox (whom the Twins will face in another three-game series starting next Tuesday). If the Twins are playing this well without Morneau’s bat, imagine how hot they can get once her returns.

Look around the American League and you’ll see teams using the DH spot in a few different ways. Some, like the White Sox and Tigers, use it, or have used it, as a rotating spot that can afford a veteran a half day off. Others, like the Blue Jays, use it for a player without a position, whether the position is filled by someone else or the player himself isn’t particularly good at any one spot. Yet it seems like a good number of teams reserve the DH spot for an aging slugger who, freed from the physical rigors of playing defense, can save their energy for the one thing at which they excel. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, and Twins employ this strategy.

This past off season four of those teams signed a veteran to fill the DH spot on a more or less full-time basis. The Twins signed Jim Thome with designs of him being a bench player, but knowing that he could fill the DH on a more permanent basis if necessary. The Angels brought in World Series MVP Hideki Matsui to fill the spot vacated by Vladimir Guerrero, who signed on with the Rangers to handle DH duties. The Yankees brought back Nick Johnson, a defensively capable first baseman who moved to DH in an attempt to reduce the physical toll on his oft-injured body.

Despite having signed similar players for the same position, each team has experienced different results with their DHs. This was the gamble heading into the off-season. The free agents all had something going against them. Thome was headed into his age-39 season and had seen his numbers dip for two years after a strong 2007 season. Matsui had his knees drained twice during the 2009 season and despite quality production still presented an injury risk. Johnson had spent plenty of time on the DL in his career, including missing most of the 2008 season with a wrist injury. Vlad missed time in 2009 and had also seen his numbers decline in the last two years.

Faced with this dilemma, the GMs seeking a full-time DH got to work. Two of them filled their spots with apparent cast-offs from other teams. Matsui signed first, going from New York, which sought a DH, to Anaheim, which had let its incumbent DH, Guerrero, leave via free agency. About a month later Guerrero signed a one-year, $5.5 million contract with a $9 million mutual option and $1 million buyout. New York, seeking to get a bit younger, let Matsui walk without a counter-offer, opting instead to sign Johnson, a player whom they had traded for Javier Vazquez, a player they would re-acquire later in December. The Twins already had Jason Kubel as an in-house DH option, but signed Thome to the curiously cheap salary of $1.5 million, with playing time escalators that could bring it to $2.25 million.

Out of the gate Vlad and Matsui looked like winners. In 93 April PA Vlad produced a .374 wOBA while Matsui was close behind at .357. Thome actually led the pack at .415, but that came in just 52 PA, so he add quite as much value as Vlad or Matsui. The Yankees appeared on the short end of this one, as Nick Johnson produced a mere .308 wOBA, which was almost completely based on his 25.9 percent walk rate. His batting average .138, and his ISO, .086, were downright terrible. He was the youngest out of the four, which is a big reason why the Yankees chose him. That completely backfired.

His season wouldn’t last that much longer, though. After just 17 May PA Johnson complained of wrist pain, which resulted in his second wrist surgery in three years. This was a lesser procedure and his return remains a remote possibility, but the signing was a nearly complete loss for the Yankees. The only consolation is that it opened a spot for them to acquire Lance Berkman. He hasn’t had an easy go in New York so far, but his track record suggests that he could provide ample value.

For Matsui, things have turned south. After his .357 wOBA in April he dropped all the way to .248 in March. He does have a streaky tendency, and in the early goings of 2009 he didn’t hit particularly well. To that end he recovered well in June, producing a .389 wOBA. In July and August, however, that has fallen to around .300. That brings his season wOBA to .323, not the stuff of a DH. Manager Mike Scioscia has defended Matsui while he’s slumped, but he has still kept him out of the lineup a few times in the past week.

Through June Vlad looked to be the best of the bunch, as he continued to hit better and better. From his .374 wOBA in April he went to .405 in May and then .437 in June, making him a big part of Texas’s first place run. In June he also uncharacteristically walked 10.7 percent of the time. But ever since he’s slowed down. In 100 July PA he produced a .275 wOBA that comprised a .282 OBP and .130 ISO. Things have gotten even worse in his 23 August PA, where he’s just 5 for 22 with two doubles and one walk. Joey from Baseball Time in Arlington examined the issue, and noticed that Vlad has been hitting the ball the other way lately, perhaps suggesting a slowing bat or timing issue.

Thome, the elder statesman, has actually been the best of the bunch. His wOBA has been over .400 in each month of the season save for May. He doesn’t have a ton of PA, just 232, so he won’t have standout counting numbers, but given the context his 14 homers looks pretty impressive. So does his .404 season wOBA. The Twins can also afford to play him almost exclusively against righties, as he’s hitting them hard this season. Not only does he have a .336 ISO against righties, but he has also walked in 20.7 percent of his PA.

Since he’s been healthy all season and productive for most of it, you might think Vlad would stand out as the WAR leader of the group. You’d be right, of course, as he’s produced 2.1 WAR. But Thome, despite 212 fewer plate appearances, comes in a close second with 1.8 WAR. There is a contingency of Yankees fans who continually scold the front office for signing Johnson over Matsui, but the two have produced identical WAR values this year, 0.1. It goes to show that when general managers have to make choices among a number of flawed players, there’s no real correct answer at the time. We just don’t know what these oft-injured and aging players will produce.