Twins Again Surge Without Morneau
Justin Morneau played his last game of 2009 on September 12, his team 5.5 games back of Detroit, and even a half-game back of Chicago, in the AL Central. The Twins were, in fact, two games below .500 at that point, and with just 20 games remaining their chances of making up the deficit seemed bleak. They had just lost three straight and Morneau, their second best hitter, was done for the season with a stress fracture in his lower back. It looked like the MVP-Mauer-led Twins would watch from their homes in October.
What came next surprised everyone. The sans-Morneau Twins rattled off six straight wins, including the first two in a series with Detroit. They dropped that last game, but then came back to win another five straight, including a three-game sweep of the White Sox. After dropping three of four, including two to Detroit, they won their final four games of the season. With a little help from Detroit they were able to catch up and force a one-game playoff, which they also won. Including the sudden death game the Twins went 17-4 in their last 21 games. All without Morneau and his .371 wOBA.
This year the Twins started off hot, but tapered off a bit as the season wore on. Morneau had been doing his part, producing a .447 wOBA and 5.2 WAR through July 7. But on that day, while sliding into second, he took a knee to the head and suffered a concussion. That figured to keep him out for a few days, but his recovery has not gone so well. A little more than a week after the injury the Twins placed him on the DL, and to this day he remains there. There is no real timetable for his return, though it sounds like the weekend is the earliest possibility. That has to be hurting the Twins right now.
Instead of seeing the Twins fall further behind the White Sox, we’ve again seen them gain ground since Morneau’s injury. After the game during which Morneau sustained his injury the Twins fell to 45-39, 1.5 games back of Detroit and a half game back of Chicago. Losing Morneau looked like an even bigger blow this year than it was last year. Joe Mauer led the Twins then, but his production has dropped a bit this year. A .379 wOBA from a catcher is excellent, but it’s still significantly below the .438 wOBA he produced last year. Morneau has led the team this year, and so the Twins have been without their best bat for more than a month now.
The Morneau-less lineup didn’t fare as well as it did in 2009, at least off the bat. In fact, the Twins dropped three straight after the injury, scoring just eight runs in those games. That put them four games behind Detroit and 3.5 games behind Chicago. At just three games over .500 and having no idea when their best hitter would return, there was some doubt about the Twins’ season. They had gone from best team in the Central to also-rans in a short span. How could they survive without Morneau?
After those losses, though, the Twins caught fire. They beat Detroit to avoid a sweep, and after dropping the first of a four game series to Chicago they came back to win the final three. The turnaround didn’t seem evident in the next five games, as they went 2-3 against the Indians and Orioles, but following the loss in Baltimore they rattled off eight straight wins in which they scored 66 runs. Since then they have split a series at Tampa Bay, won two out of three against Cleveland, and, after last night’s 12-6 drubbing, have reclaimed first place by defeating the White Sox.
The Twins 19-10 record in Morneau’s absence might not seem particularly torrid, but it does outpace their season record by a decent margin. After the loss on July 7 they had a .536 win percentage, so they’ve won more since then. Even crazier, after the initial three losses they’ve gone 19-7, a .731 win percentage. It’s not quite the .810 win percentage of their final 21 games in 2009, but it has been enough for them to retake sole possession of first place in the Central for the first time since July 2.
A graph of the Twins performance since Morneau’s injury. Thanks to Tommy Bennett for whipping this up. Click for larger.
While the typical talk radio reaction might involving lamenting Morneau’s return — they’re better without him, just look at the standings! — clearly it will be a nice boost for the team. Michael Cuddyer filled in admirably at first for a while, producing his best month of the year, but his bat has again tapered. But even when Cuddyer was hot he was no match for Morneau’s production. Few players in baseball are.
The Twins have made a nice run, and with one more win in the next two days against Chicago they’ll be set up well as they return home for nine games. Chances are we’ll see him back in the lineup some time during that stretch. That should scare other teams, particularly the White Sox (whom the Twins will face in another three-game series starting next Tuesday). If the Twins are playing this well without Morneau’s bat, imagine how hot they can get once her returns.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
They’ve also hit a very easy portion of the schedule.
I find it very interesting that your comment received NO responses. It might be the most important paret of the whole thread.
Let’s look at who they’ve played …
Jul 19-21 = 3g CLE (47-66, 4.54, 25th in ML)
Jul 22-25 – 4g BAL (39-74, 5.06 ERA, 28th in ML )
Jul 27-29 = 3g KCR (47-66, 5.04 ERA, 27th in ML)
Jul 30-Aug = 3g SEA (44-70, 3.98 ERA, 12th in ML)
Aug 2-5 = 4g TBR (69-44, 3.63 ERA, 5th in ML)
Aug 6-8 = 3g CLE (47-66, 4.54 ERA, 25th in ML)
We’ll I’ll be damned, look at that.
Turns out when you play 13 of 20 (65%) games against the teams in the bottom 5th of MLB in ERA, your batting stats go up. Who knew?
The Twins runs allowed also went down, coincidence?
Folks, strength of opponent is a BIG deal when we’re talking about game samples of 15-20. I don;t know why it’s ignored consistently from an “analysis” site.
So, it would mean one less Twin-friendly article. I’d rather have reality.
Seriously, the first comment (of one sentence) was the most impolrtant information in the whole thread.
Typos suck. Deal with it. *grin*
Not surprisingly, the Twins hit Freddy Garcia better than they hit John Danks.
Massive overstatement. That’s a .457 strength of schedule according to PECOTA. Is that really enough to negate a 14-6 stretch and this entire article? That’s before even considering the other nine games against Chicago, Detroit and Toronto that you conveniently forgot to mention.
Massive overstatement. That’s a .457 strength of schedule according to PECOTA. Is that really enough to negate a 14-6 stretch with an even stronger Pythagpat and this entire article?
Pythagenpat. Typos do suck.
I don’t think it’s an overstatement. I think strength of opponent is something that is prevalent in other sports, but not baseball.
When a running back goes for 250, the first thing mentioned is the run defense rank of the opponent. When a point guard scores 38, the first thing mentioned is Steve Nash was guarding him.
But, when the Twins go on an offensive surge without one of their best hitters, it;’s not mentioned that they played the bulk of those games against some of the worst pitching teams?
An an emotionless, objective, logical, analysis website, wouldn’t “they playing a bunch of games against bad pitchers” be the most logical conclusion, rather than “they’re steppin’ up”, “they’re getting lucky”, “they’re experiencing positive randomness”, etc?
We look at ALL these stats, and do all these calculations, and we often leave out one of the most important factors … who the batter/pitcher is facing.
For example, when looking at pitcher’s stats … we don;t even take into consideration the strength of the opposing lineup, when that is THE most important factor.
The Twiuns are a good hitting club, and it shows because when they lose their MVP this season, they still mash against bad pitching teams.
Greg, I just went back to July 19th to present, because I thought that was the same number of games as the sample size presented in the opening post.
I presented the teams consecutively as they appear on the schedule.
I am wrong from time to time (sometimes too often), but I generally try to be fair and honest and present the information as is, and let the chips fall where they may.
If I omitted important information or gave the appearance of a selection bias, it was unintentional.
The Twins are a good team that pummeled bad pitching teams without one of their best hitters in the lineup. To me, that would be more expected than unexpected. Now, if they do the same thing against the tough pitching competition they’re facing in the next 20 games, I’ll be dang impressed, and will concede the division.
Shit, my first post didn’t show up on my end for over an hour, hence the double post.
I’m just saying the schedule over those twenty games wasn’t soft enough to come anywhere close to negating the article. Even if they were a .600 team playing a .400 schedule, their record was exactly in line with expectations. A .750ish Pythagenpat in baseball is solid regardless of who you are or who you play.
So, 13 games against the bottom 15% of pitching isn’t enough to cause a spike in batting stats? (over a 20-game sample).
That is all I am saying. I am not saying anything bad about the Twins. I’m saying that batters should expect a spike in production when playing 2/3’s of their games against bad pitchers.
Essentially, the entire lineup had a crazy July to make up for the loss of Morneau:
Young (.504 July wOBA, .371 2010 wOBA)
Valencia (.493, .359)
Mauer (.411, .379)
Thome (.408, .413)
Hardy (.381, .313)
Cuddyer (.376, .334)
They’ll likely fall back to usual levels (with the possible exceptions of Thome and Mauer), so getting Morneau back will be more than welcome. Of course we’ll end up hearing the “Team hits better without him” explanation, but it’s just regression.
Ewing Theory
symbaton beat me to it.
Since Morneau’s injury, a number of other guys in the Twins lineup have picked up their production significantly – including the likes of Mauer, Young, Thome, Kubel, etc.
This was built to be one of the better offenses in baseball – and I think they have proven that with their season long production. Last time I checked, they were behind only the Yankees and Red Sox in most major statistical categories.
By the way, Erik, your blog’s name is priceless.
I’m guessing they won’t keep it up either, and there won;t be anything “regression”, “bad luck” or mystery about it. Just look at their upcoming schedule …
6g v. CWS (3.89 ERA, 10th in ML)
3g v. LAA (4.38 ERA, 21st in ML)
3g v. OAK (3.65 ERA, 6th in ML)
4g v. TEX (3.77 ERA, 7th in ML)
So, that’ll be 13 of 16 games against teams in the top 10 in ERA.
Yeah, my guess is their hitting will “cool off” at tad. Funny how that works.
The Twins have been one of the best offensive teams in the American League all season.
Your point isn’t as valid as you would think.
I know they are a good offense. Let’s concentrate on what I am saying.
The “surge without Morneau” could simply just be due to playing the lesser pitching staffs in the game.
Logically, all teams hit better against these teams, which is why they’re in the bottom 10 ofMLB.
I’m not slighting the Twins, they’re doing what they’re supposed to.
It’s actually unfortunate for Morneau. He’s in contention for the MVP, and he just lost out 13 games against the league’s worst pitchers.
Well, CircleChange11, they just got done with the first three of those games–against the Sox–and put up 19 runs, which included games against Floyd and Danks. Funny how that works.
If they maintain their surge over the next 10 games that feature staffs that rank 21, 6, and 7 in ERA … I will gladly change my opinion that’s it’s primarily due to strength of opponent.
I just wasn’t going to chalk it up to something else when quality of pitching opponent was so poor. It was just too obvious.
I wanted to check back on this thread and see how it has played out (Hint: not good for the CWS for one thing).
6g v. CWS (3.89 ERA, 10th in ML) — 33 ER in 53 IP (5.60 ERA)
3g v. LAA (4.38 ERA, 21st in ML) — 14 ER in 25 IP (5.04 ERA)
3g v. OAK (3.65 ERA, 6th in ML) — 7 ER in 24 IP (2.63 ERA)
4g v. TEX (3.77 ERA, 7th in ML) —- Current Series
So far, opponent pitching has yielded 54 ER in 100 IP for a 4.86 ERA.
The 12 ER game against CWS inflates it quite a bit, but you have to give them credit because they scored the runs. But, strength of schedule, in terms of opponent’s ERA, does seem to be a factor in the Twins’ increased production. I don’t see how it couldn’t.
MIN is currently being shut out (no hit) against TEX.
What amazing to me is that over these 12 games, the Twins are 9-3, despite outscoring their opponents by 4 runs.
What amazing to me is that over these 12 games, the Twins are 9-3, despite outscoring their opponents by 4 runs.
Why is that amazing? Losing a game 11-0 in a same that small is obviously going to dramatically skew a run differential.
In a *sample* that small.
A little footnote, the White Sox lost Peavy at the same time (7/6).
Chemistry!!!
Since the Twins carry 2 not-quite-Morneau-but-good lefty DHs (Thome and Kubel), even on paper they’re not really all THAT different a team without him. They lose Morneau’s projected 409 wOBA, but replace it with a guy who projects in the mid 360s, not a replacement-level or even average bat. That they have a hot streak without him shouldn’t be all that much more shocking than having one with him. Depth pays!
What came next surprised everyone. The sans-Morneau Twins rattled off six straight wins, including the first two in a series with Detroit. They dropped that last game, but then came back to win another five straight, including a three-game sweep of the White Sox. After dropping three of four, including two to Detroit, winning their final four games of the season. With a little help from Detroit they were able to catch up and force a one-game playoff, which they also won. Including the sudden death game the Twins went 17-4 in their last 21 games. All without Morneau and his .317 wOBA.
*After dropping three of four, including two to Detroit, THEY WON their final four games of the season.
**With a little help from CHICAGO, they were able to catch up and force a one-game playoff.
***All without Morneau and his .371 wOBA.
Yeah, this paragraph was incomprehensible. Take your time, it’s not worth posting if it can’t be followed.
The only real error was the first one. They did get help from Detroit, because Detroit lost. They might have lost to Chicago, but you can phrase it either way. And the flipping of the wOBA is easy enough to understand, though I should have caught that on the read-through.
Normally I wouldn’t even respond, but this asshole shows up every once in a while, mostly to correct non-grammatical mistakes. Some people get their rocks off on that, I guess.
Joe and I go back a ways with this good stuff.
http://riveraveblues.com/2010/07/a-few-fish-on-the-yankss-radar-32285/#comment-976870
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/orioles-pick-hernandez-over-tillman/#comments
Is it annoying? Of course. That said, it can’t really be argued that there were errors in the prose of the content, can it?
What dick…
That’s, “What ‘a’ dick,” to you, sir!
Why is it so hard to spell “grammar”?
Really?
Really.
Don’t forget this gem:
“While the typical talk radio reaction might involving lamenting Morneau’s return — they’re better without him, just look at the standings! — clearly it will be a nice boost for the team.”
The grammar nazi may be an asshole but if you want to be taken seriously as a writer you have to communicate your information with some resemblance to the Queen’s standard english.
Nazi and English are capitalized words/proper nouns.
And unless Morneau had a sex change:
“If the Twins are playing this well without Morneau’s bat, imagine how hot they can get once her returns.”
All he’s asking is that you double check your writing.
That’s not a bad offense at all. That wasn’t a mistake in usage of sexuality, it was a forgotten ‘e’.
No one would ever use “her” or “him” in that context. Ever.
Is this what FG’s has come to – people correcting the grammar and spelling of others?
Go to the Webster Dictionary website if you want to get off on this kind of stuff.
It’s Webster’s, not Webster. You somehow managed to spell Eric wrong too.
I thought we all learned in the “Domonic Brown” (Dominic) thread that making fun of how someone spells their name could be racism (even if they have a teammate that spells their name “Jayson”).
But, yes, he did spell Eric wrong. *wink*
I’m just amazed they taught a Pawlikowski to type.
I am not really excellent with English but I line up this real easy to read . comments by Victor Battani @ The interesting viewpoint is mentioned in the email from Bobby Koci @ <a href=??ttp://www.windowsrumor.com/??Windows rumor