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Twins Skidding, But No Need to Panic

On the morning of June 1, the Twins awoke a happy team. They had just beaten Seattle in the first of a four-game series, extending their lead in the AL Central to 4.5 games, their largest of the year. Their record, 31-20, was tied for the second best in baseball. With three more games against the offensively hapless Mariners, it looked like the Twins might extend their lead even further. Alas, the situation didn’t play out as anyone had expected.

After their 6-0 loss to the Mets yesterday the Twins find themselves just a half game ahead of the Tigers, who head to Target Field for a three-game set this week. Things don’t get easier for the Twins after that, as they have to play four against Tampa Bay this weekend, and will eventually play Detroit three more times, this time away, leading into the All-Star Break. There exists a distinct chance that the Twins enter the break not only out of first place in the Central, but perhaps all the way down to third place. The White Sox, after all, have gone streaking.

The biggest change for the Twins in June comes from the offense. During the season’s first two months the Twins had scored 4.92 runs per game. In June that mark is down a full run to 3.92 per game. Part of this comes from players leveling out. Justin Morneau, for instance, wasn’t going to hit .377/.493/.680 on the season. In June he’s hit .282/.333/.471 — not terrible numbers but still not to the standard he set earlier in the season. That brings his season marks to .346/.445/.612, which, if he could finish there, would still be quite remarkable. Joe Mauer, too, has skidded a bit, hitting .273/.354/.398 in June after hitting .321/.396/.453 in the first two months. Also slumping in June: Denard Span (.240/.283/.340) and Michael Cuddyer (.216/.284/.284).

The injury to Orlando Hudson has also hurt the Twins. He hit the DL on May 31 with a left wrist sprain and missed 18 days. Matt Tolbert replaced him both in the field and in the batting order, and during that 18-day span he went 8 for 38 with four walks and two extra base hits. Since his return Hudson is just 7 for 38 with three walks and one extra base hit, so it appears that his wrist still isn’t at full strength. On the other end, J.J. Hardy’s left wrist injury has turned out to be a net gain for the team. His replacement, Nick Punto, has hit .354/.425/.462 since the injury, and Punto’s replacement, Danny Valencia, has also filled in admirably. Then again, it’s not difficult to improve on Hardy’s .217/.265/.333 batting line.

In his State of the Twins post, Seth Stohs makes an observation about the injuries:

There have been times that the Twins have had four starters out of the lineup. Are injuries an excuse? Yes, they are. But what the injuries did was show that the Twins depth was not real good. Their weaknesses have been exposed.

It seems, however, that the only injury that has really cost them was the Hudson one. Mauer missed time, but the Twins played well enough in his absence. Punto missed half a month, but he was hitting horribly then. His replacement, Brendan Harris, actually hit better during Punto’s DL stint. And, again, that doesn’t really explain the Twins’ June performance. The drop of one run per game is really attributable to some routine slumps and Hudson’s injury and poor return. Aaron Gleeman, I think, nails it:

Had the timing of the good and bad stretches been flipped, with the Twins starting 10-14 and then playing well for two months, the perception of their current situation would be different. It’s similar to how a player who follows a big April with a mediocre May through September will spend most of the season with nice-looking numbers, but a player who follows a terrible April with a strong May through September will spend much of the season with bad-looking stats.

They may both end up hitting the same .300 with 25 homers and an .850 OPS, but one guy will probably make the All-Star team while people spend months talking about how the other guy is slumping. At the end of the day a hit in April or May counts the same as a hit in September, and along those same lines while it certainly would have been nice for the Twins to go through the entire season without a lengthy rough patch that was never particularly likely.

There is, of course, also the pitching to consider. In April and May the Twins allowed just 3.82 runs per game, but since the calendar flipped they’ve seen that rise to 4.46. Chalk that up to Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, as Nick Blackburn. Carl Pavano — 2.25 ERA, .187 BABIP, 84.5% strand rate — and Francisco Liriano — 1.50 FIP, 11.33 K/9, 0 HR — have held up their ends. The other three have been quite terrible this month, which, combined with a poor offensive showing, will surely lead to a team slump.

Does that mean that the Twins have to change anything between now and the deadline? We’ll surely learn more about that when the Twins come up in our What Should They Do series. As a quick preview, yeah, it appears as though they could use one more starter. Slowey, Blackburn, and Baker are all better than they’ve shown in June, but the rotation as a whole could use an upgrade on one of them later in the season. They could probably use a third baseman as well, unless Valencia keeps hitting. But what they need most is patience. This is still a good team, talent-wise still the best in the AL Central. They’ve hit a rough patch, and it’s easy to lose sight of the big picture during one of those. The Twins needn’t panic, though. They’re still in a good position, and will likely be in a better one once the offense turns back around.


Sam LeCure Finally Gets a Favorable Draw

While perusing the box scores a few weeks ago, I saw a starting pitcher for the Reds I didn’t recognize. Sam LeCure had just tossed a quality game against the Giants, completing six innings and allowing just one run on five hits. He had walked four and struck out only three, so it wasn’t exceptional, but the results were there, at least. Then I looked at the Giants’ side of the box and saw his opponent. Matt Cain pitched a complete game shutout. Tough luck, I guess.

As often happens when I run into a player, particularly a starting pitcher, with whom I’m not familiar, I started looking into LeCure. A fourth-round pick in 2005, he was never a heralded prospect. Turning to the Reds blogs, I found a nice write-up on LeCure at Redleg Nation, which brought to light an interesting fact. When the Reds drafted him in 2005 he hadn’t pitched for the Texas Longhorns since 2004 due to academic ineligibility. He was excellent while there, though, especially at keeping the ball inside the park. The Reds drafted him based on his stellar 2004 season and assigned him to their Rookie League team, where he tossed 41.1 pretty good innings.

Despite the academic ineligibility, from what I’ve read it sounds like LeCure knows what he’s doing on the mound. The Redleg Nation profile cited a John Sickels write-up, which they quoted as saying, “he has a good feel for pitching and can outthink hitters,” though that quote no longer exists on Sickels’s website. The profile on Redlegs Baseball echoes the sentiment, describing LeCure as, “one who has a great degree of ‘pitchability’ and an understanding of how to pitch.” In both spots, however, we get a less than flattering description of his stuff: a low-90s fastball, decent slider, decent changeup.

Overall, LeCure posted quality minor league numbers, though his walks at the higher levels were a bit high for a pitcher with his kind of stuff. Still, he had a 4.17 ERA (3.90 FIP) in AA in 2008, which he followed with a homer-less Arizona Fall League stint (2.20 FIP). In 2008, his results at AAA improved, a 3.42 ERA and 3.60 FIP. Still, even at 24 years old, the Reds did not promote him to AAA. He went there in 2009, and while his results, a 4.46 ERA and 17 home runs, weren’t encouraging, he did get his walks down to 2.8 per nine, which led to a 3.84 FIP. He lost the fifth starter competition this spring, but again pitched well at AAA, a 2.55 ERA and 3.04 FIP. That earned him the first pitching call-up from the minors.

LeCure’s debut went well. He threw six innings of two-run ball against the Astros, though he did walk four. The Reds’ offense handed him his first big-league win by scoring eight runs off of Wandy Rodriguez. It would be the last non-elite pitcher LeCure would face for quite a while. His next four starts pitted him against some of the best the league has to offer. Here are the pitchers he faced, and the results they achieved.

June 2 – Chris Carpenter: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
June 8 – Matt Cain: 9 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
June 13 – Zack Greinke: 9 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 12 K
June 19 – Felix Hernandez: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

In other words, even if LeCure had pitched well above his head he still stood little chance in these starts. He did make a valiant effort against Greinke, but he couldn’t get through the seventh and the bullpen put the game out of reach. It’s tough for any pitcher, never mind a rookie with fringy stuff, to do much of anything against this group.

Thankfully for him and his team, LeCure will draw a bit easier of an assignment on Saturday, Cleveland’s Justin Masterson. LeCure’s recent performances against AL teams haven’t helped his case. He has allowed nine runs in 12.2 innings in his last two starts against two weak offenses. Cleveland also features a well below average lineup, ranking 11th in the AL in runs per game. LeCure’s biggest benefit, however, should come from the offense. The Reds understandably managed just five runs in that brutal four-game run with LeCure on the mound. If his fortunes are going to change, this weekend could be a good start.


Gaby Sanchez Does Not Want to Be a Placeholder

It can’t be comfortable for a major leaguer to know that he plays the same position as one of his team’s top prospects. Will the team trade him? Bench him? Or will they, to the incumbent’s joy, trade the prospect for an upgrade at another position? This feeling has to grow intensity for a player who just won the position. That appears to be the case for Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez. With only 31 plate appearances previously, he’s still a rookie this season, and he’s the Marlins’ starting first baseman. Yet even before the season began he carried an ominous label: placeholder.

The label wasn’t exactly an indictment of Sanchez, per se. Instead, it was a nod to the Marlins’ consensus No. 2 prospect, Logan Morrison. After missing two months last season it was unlikely that he’d break camp with the team, but he seemed like a prime candidate for a mid-season promotion. While Sanchez, who the Marinls drafted 18 rounds ahead of Morrison in 2005, would start the season at first, chances are he’d be displaced at some point. But while Morrison did get a promotion this year, it was from AA to AAA, and not the majors. Sanchez is a big reason for that.

Last night Sanchez went 3 for 3 and hit his 17th double of the season. That raises his season triple slash to .307/.377/.484, a .380 wOBA, one point behind team leader Hanley Ramirez. He’s walking in nearly 10 percent of his plate appearances and is hitting the ball on a line nearly 20 percent of the time. On top of that he’s playing solid defense at first base, a 1.3 UZR in 553 defensive innings. He has made the idea of promotion Morrison to the majors an absurd one. How could the Marlins justify moving one of their three best hitters?

This performance from Sanchez should not come as much of a surprise. A fourth round pick in 2005, he has raked at nearly every minor league level. The only time his SLG fell below .475 was in 2007 when he struggled, just a little, in the class-A Florida State League, not exactly a hitter-friendly league. He followed that up by posting a .411 wOBA the next year in AA, which bought him a cup of coffee later in the season. The next year, at AAA, he posted a .378 wOBA and again racked up a few major league at-bats. It was clearly time for him to take on a more prominent role, and he has responded in kind.

Despite his solid performance to date, Sanchez seemingly can’t shake that placeholder tag. On June 10, when Sanchez was hitting .269/.324/.425 through 146 PA, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus reiterated his position on Morrison, saying that perhaps it’s time for Sanchez to “pass the torch.” Since then Sanchez has gone on a tear, hitting .444/.483/.704 in his last 61 PA. That includes 24 hits, seven of which have gone for extra bases. At the same time, Morrison has adjusted well to his promotion. He has gone 14 for 39 with two doubles and a home run in his last 10 games.

This is, of course, a favorable situation for the Marlins. They have one player performing at the major league level, and a top prospect right on his tail. They do have a few options defensively, too. Sanchez has played third base in the minors as recently as last season, when he played 41 games there. It’s not certain, though, that he can play there passably in the majors. The team is also playing Morrison in left field four days a week. That sets up the ideal scenario, in which Logan, Cameron Maybin, and Mike Stanton roam the outfield, with Chris Coghlan moving to second. Dan Uggla has one year remaining of arbitration, and considering his salary, $7.8 million this season, it seems likely that the Marlins will trade him, whether at the deadline or in the off-season.

Keeping Sanchez at first, then, appears to be the best situation for the Marlins. His solid performance to date affords the Marlins the flexibility they need. Chances are they’d trade Uggla and move Coghlan at some point anyway. The difference is that with Sanchez at first and Morrison in left, the Marlins are better positioned offensively. They need a lot of things to break their way, but if they get just a little lucky they could be in a good spot for 2011.


Reds Doing the Earl Weaver with Chapman

If starting pitchers are more valuable than relievers, then why do we frequently see teams place some of their best young pitchers in the bullpen? We’ve seen it so many times during the past few years. The Yankees brought up Joba Chamberlain, just a year after drafting him, to solidify a shaky bullpen. The Mariners moved Brandon Morrow there. The Braves brought up Kris Medlen in a relief role before moving him to the rotation. The Mets brought 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia to Queens with them — though they have finally sent him to the minors to start.

This week we heard of another such case. On Wednesday John Fay reported that the Reds would “look at [the] bullpen” for their $30 million man, Aroldis Chapman. Sure enough, Chapman pitched his first game in relief that night, allowing one run in two innings against Toledo, striking out three to one walk and two hits. The Reds will likely keep him in this role, giving him multi-inning appearances in the minors before possibly calling him up to fortify the major league bullpen. The question we’re always asking is of whether the switch is a prudent move.

The main issue here is development. The Reds invested heavily in Chapman knowing that he was a raw pitcher who would need plenty of seasoning before becoming a finished product. Hence, he did not break camp with the team, but instead was assigned to Louisville of the International League, whrer he could work on repeating his delivery.  But, as Keith Law observed in spring training, his mechanics seem in order. Before the season started it sounded like Chapman would be starting for the Reds at some point this season.

His results, however, have not exactly impressed. While he’s been able to, unsurprisingly, strike out plenty of AAA hitters — 79 in 67.2 innings — he has had plenty of trouble with his control. His walk rate, 5.45 per nine, certainly needs improvement. Again, it’s one of the reasons the Reds assigned him to a minor league affiliate. The problem hasn’t improved recently, either, as he has walked 29 in his last 10 appearances, which cover 46.2 innings. The wildness is something he is going to have to continue to work on, and the Reds apparently believe that could happen in the bullpen.

How will the new role affect his development? Opinions abound. Craig Calcaterra thinks that turning him into a one-inning reliever will “do his development a serious disservice.” The Reds want him to be a starter long-term, and therefore they should keep him in that role and allow him to learn to be a starter by starting, where he can aclimate himself to the schedule, to the pace, and to using all of his pitches. On the other side, both Chad and Bill from Redleg Nation love the move. Chad calls it, “a stroke of genius,” noting that it serves the dual purpose of limiting his innings and getting him experience against major league hitters. Both cases have merit, and I’m not sure there is any one objectively correct move. The team has to decide for itself which is the best path for its player.

While there are certainly developmental concerns, I do buy into the notion that breaking young pitchers into the league as relievers is a sound strategy. As we’ve heard so often, Earl Weaver did this with many pitchers and with success. We have also seen many current players spend time in the bullpen before entering the rotation. Chad Billingsley started the 2007 season in the bullpen and made his first 23 appearances there. He then moved to the rotation and was successful. The Yankees moved Phil Hughes to the bullpen last year after he produced mediocre results as a starter. He returned to the rotation this year and has been quite the success himself.

There are two advantages of using young pitchers in the bullpen. First is the obvious, that they gain experience facing major league hitters. Many young pitchers are just too good for the minors and need to test their mettle against elite hitters. Why not, then, put them in the major league rotation? That brings us to the second point. By pitching in the bullpen they receive constant feedback. Relievers pitch in games more often than starters, which means more opportunities to gain feedback on their performances. You can read a few academic articles on feedback here, here, and here. If the pitcher can put this feedback to good use, then he might be ripe for the rotation in the following year, or even perhaps later in the same year.

The one place where I get hung up on this issue relates to innings. Young pitchers need to build up their innings from year to year, just like runners must ramp up their distances when training for a marathon. No one goes from the couch to a 26.2 mile run, just like no one goes from high school to 200 innings. Chapman’s case becomes a bit more difficult because he pitched in Cuba, which is a different baseball environment than America. He did throw 118.1 innings in 2008 for Holguin, but how much do we really know about those innings? There is also the question of how many innings he pitched internationally. By the sheer numbers it looks like Chapman could pitch around 150 innings this year. Since he is at 67 now and has moved to the bullpen, though, it looks like he won’t get even close to that mark.

Developing young pitchers is as subjective as it gets in baseball. Each pitcher requires different tactics to help spur growth. Teams have to determine, on a case-by-case basis, which will work best. The Reds have chosen the bullpen path for Chapman, and they certainly have their reasons. I’m not sure if it’s right or wrong; I don’t think anyone can be wrong. But I think the arguments in favor of the move are compelling enough to justify it. Long-term, Chapman’s value lies in his ability to work out the kinks in his control and become a top-end starter. But for now, a move to the bullpen might be what he needs to achieve success as a starting pitcher.


White Sox Playing to Their Potential

It all started with a comeback win over the Indians. Heading into that Sunday matinee the White Sox, after dropping the first two games of the series, were 23-32, 9.5 games behind the Twins and only 1.5 games ahead of the last-place Indians. They drew Jake Westbrook and managed to score six runs before the end of the fifth. Unfortunately for them, the Indians had managed six in three innings off of Mark Buehrle. That tie continued until the bottom of the seventh, when two Indians relievers managed to load the bases and a third allowed two of them to score. Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks held the lead, and the White Sox avoided going 10 games under .500.

Since then the White Sox are 14-2, having outscored their opponents 84-46. The streak has improved their season record to 37-34. With Minnesota’s loss to the Brewers today the White Sox find themselves just 2.5 games out of first. They were 9.5 games back as recently as June 9. That makes the AL Central look like a three-team race — the Tigers are 38-32, though they have a nearly even run differential. Could this present an opportunity for the White Sox to change the landscape of the division?

In the aggregate the White Sox are still pretty terrible. While the Tigers have a +1 run differential, Chicago’s still sits at -9. Before today’s 2-0 win over the Braves the Sox had scored just 4.39 runs per game, which will obviously go down, which ranks 10th in the American League. They’re not doing a great job of preventing runs either, allowing 4.54 runs per game, 9th in the AL. Only two of their hitters sport a wOBA over .350, and only one of their starters has an xFIP below 4.00. That doesn’t sound like a team rallying towards first place.

Of course, much of that has changed during the streak. They’ve had a number of players fall short of expectations during the season’s first two months, and those players have stepped up in the past two-plus weeks. It’s doubtful that they keep up their current pace, but if they revert to expectations, rather than the poor performances they realized earlier in the season, perhaps the White Sox can finish the season with a respectable record.

All stats prior to today.

A.J. Pierzynski:

Season: .254/.290/.380
Streak: .327/.400/.558

Alexei Ramirez:

Season: .261/.298/.392
Streak: .293/.339/.414

Omar Vizquel:

Season: .269/.333/.346
Streak: .308/.378/.436

Carlos Quentin:

Season: .227/.315/.441
Streak: .308/.321/.596

Mark Kotsay:

Season: .210/.311/.371
Streak: .276/.364/.448

And then there’s Paul Konerko, who is hitting .415/.484/.528 during the streak. Alex Rios has actually underperformed his season numbers during the streak, as has Juan Pierre (yet he continues to hit leadoff). Gordon Beckham and Andruw Jones have continued to hit poorly despite their teammates’ excellence.

Pitching, of course, plays a big role in the streak as well. Jake Peavy has allowed just four runs, one home run, in his last 23 IP, striking out 15 to four walks. John Danks, the Sox best starter this year, has allowed just five runs in 22 IP in his last three starts. Buehrle, a huge disappointment early in the season, has allowed just four runs and has struck out 17 to just two walks in his last 20 IP. Gavin Floyd might be the best of them all right now. He has allowed just three runs in his last 29 IP, striking out 31 to seven walks. That includes his seven-inning start today, in which he allowed no runs while striking out nine. Even Freddy Garcia is in on the action, eating 19.2 innings in three starts during the streak, allowing 10 runs along the way.

Some of these guys are going to come down to earth. Floyd and Pierzynski seem the most obvious culprits. Neither is exactly bad, but nor are they as good as they have been in the past 18 days. If Vizquel finishes with his current season numbers the Sox should be happy. Ditto Ramirez. Quentin is a tough case. He’s certainly better than his season numbers, but I wonder how close to his streak numbers he can remain.

There is no doubt that the White Sox have talent. For the most part that talent underperformed expectations in the first two months, but in the past 18 days they’ve surged. It probably won’t lead them on a miraculous run to the playoffs — the Twins are just too good, and the Wild Card is certainly coming from the AL East. But, as the Sox have shown, they’re not as bad as they were early in the season. They’re just a little too good for that.


Derek Jeter’s Double Play Condition

Heading into the 2009 season, Joe Girardi knew he had a small problem on his hands. By most measures, his Nos. 1 and 2 hitters, Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter, ranked among the best in the league. In 2008, Damon posted a .375 OBP, a solid mark from the leadoff spot. Jeter, even in a down year, had a .363 OBP. They were both proven players who figured to get on base plenty for the power bats in the middle of the order. The problem was, Damon’s on-base skills sometimes went for naught. Jeter simply grounded into too many double plays.

It’s expected that Jeter, a groundball hitter, will hit into his share of twin killings. When he was younger he used his above-average speed to keep that mark in the low double digits. As he crossed the age-30 barrier, however, that number started to rise. In 2007, he grounded into a double play in 14 percent of his opportunities, and in 2008 that rose to 18 percent. Worse, because Damon got on base so frequently Jeter found himself in many double play situations — once every 4.94 plate appearances.

Girardi didn’t want to see his leadoff hitter eliminated so frequently. It would kill rallies and take men off base for their new No.3 hitter, Mark Teixeira. As it turned out, the World Baseball Classic, in which Jeter participated by Damon did not, gave Girardi his opening. Maybe he read John Walsh’s article on double play opportunities, maybe he didn’t. In that piece, Walsh showed that Damon is historically good at avoiding the double play. A leadoff man much of his life, he hasn’t faced tons of situations, but when he does face them he tends to avoid making two outs. When Jeter returned from the WBC he found himself in the leadoff spot, with Damon hitting behind him.

The outcome was as good as it could have been. Jeter still grounded into a double play in 17 percent of his opportunities, but he faced those situations only once every 6.75 PA. It saved the Yankees a few outs in the 2009 season. Even when Damon departed after the season and the Yankees acquired career leadoff man Curtis Granderson to take his place, there was little question of who would bat first. There was just no way Girardi would move Jeter out of that spot after he had performed so well in 2009.

This year we have seen a strange development in this case. In 2009, the Yankees’ No. 9 hitters posted a .309 OBP, which is part of the reason why Jeter saw fewer double play opportunities. In 2010, that number is up to .324, mainly because Brett Gardner has frequented that spot. Moreover, Jeter’s groundball percentage has risen more than 10 points this season, to 67.2%. Combined with yet another year of slowing physically and it sounds like a surefire recipe for a bevy of double plays. Yet that has not been the case at all.

Jeter has faced a double play situation once every 5.86 plate appearances, and has grounded into one eight times. That is a 14 percent mark, his lowest since 2007. That includes his two double play grounders last night. If he keeps up this pace he would finish with 17, one fewer than last season. The two double plays last night make it a bit tougher to get a read on his pace, too. After all, before then he had grounded into six double plays in 55 opportunities, 11 percent. For all we know he could drop down to that rate for the rest of the season. Or, of course, he could ground into double plays in five of his next 10 opportunities and end the season with an inflated rate. Such are the perils of situational stats like these.

It still seems odd, though, that Jeter has avoided double plays this year despite conditions that indicate that he’d hit into more. More base runners and more ground balls points to more double plays. We still have plenty of time to determine whether this is a fluke — for instance, the No. 9 hitter frequently reaches with two outs. Something tells me it is. I just don’t see how you can see more runners on base and hit the ball on the ground more and end up hitting into fewer double plays. During the course of an entire season, I suspect, we’ll see Jeter’s rate around the 17, 18 percent we saw in 2008 and 2009.


What Should the Orioles Do?

Overview

With their 10-4 loss to the Marlins last night the Orioles are now 19-51, last place in the majors by six full games. That puts them on pace for a 44-118 season, which would put them in company with the 2003 Tigers and 1962 Mets. It would also be a 20-game downturn from last season, when they went 64-98. There are a few bright spots and plenty of potential, but these Orioles are a bad team that has underperformed. There’s not much anyone can do to fix that.

Buy Or Sell

The O’s face a conundrum as the deadline approaches. They do have a number of players who other teams will find attractive. The Orioles stand to improve future teams by cashing in on those players, so in an ideal world they’d be aggressive sellers. But the Orioles have to deal with reality, and in reality those trade chips rank among their top performers. To sell them off could be what pushes the Orioles past that 120-loss mark. No team wants to face that possibility.

Orioles president and CEO Andy MacPhail might not have a choice. He knows what lies ahead for his team. There is no mercy for the weak in the AL East, and the division will only get tougher as Toronto reloads. For Baltimore to keep its best trading chips would be to miss an opportunity to help build a stronger future. That is not something they can afford right now. If it means a new low in the loss column, well, that’s the price that teams sometimes have to pay for future wins.

After a strong start Kevin Millwood has pitched poorly lately, which certainly hurts his trade stock. As Dave wrote yesterday, however, he could present a bargain for a contending team looking for an additional arm. This is good for the contender, but bad for the Orioles. According to Eddie Bajek’s reverse engineering of the Elias rankings Millwood still rates as a Type B free agent, and unless he completely collapses probably won’t lose that designation. The Orioles can likely do better — they did, after all, nab Josh Bell for George Sherrill last year — but they shouldn’t expect a huge return for Millwood.

Ty Wigginton has made the most of his playing time. He started the season as a reserve, but became a starter when Brian Roberts hit the DL with back problems. He would have gotten at-bats anyway, considering Garrett Atkins’s horrible bat, but he has taken advantage regardless. His .367 wOBA still ranks high on the AL charts, though it is dropping. Since May 19th he’s hitting .223/.339/.282. He’s clearly better than that, but he’s not as good as his early season hot streak either. Because he is versatile he should find a few suitors, but because he is a free agent at the end of the year teams likely won’t give up much for the rental.

The player that could probably fetch the greatest return is outfielder Luke Scott. This is his sixth season in the majors, but he has accumulated only three full years of service time, meaning he has two more dates with the arbitration panel before becoming a free agent. His production this year, a .365 wOBA, is in line with his career .360 mark. His best defensive innings have come at the outfield corners, where he has a positive career UZR. The production and service time combination means the Orioles could get more for Scott than they could for Millwood and Wigginton. In a year when offense is down, there are certainly a few contenders who could use an outfielder with an .838 OPS.

The rest of the roster features nothing attractive. The Orioles want to hang onto their younger players, and the rest are veterans who probably wouldn’t help a contender. Even Miguel Tejada looks pretty terrible right now. The only other name that approaches attractiveness is Jeremy Guthrie, and it’s unlikely the O’s trade him. Like Scott, he has two more years of arbitration which, combined with his mere $3 million salary in 2010, could yield some decent offers from other clubs. But to lose Guthrie would be to lose veteran presence in the rotation next year. It’s not something that we can really quantify, but I’m sure the Orioles would like to avoid relying on a rotation of pitchers 25 and younger.

On The Farm

This is where things get interesting for the Orioles. They have already tapped a couple of pitchers from their top 10, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta, and could again dip into that pool later this season. LHP Zach Britton, their No. 3 prospect entering the season, has pitched very well at AA and might take a trip to Baltimore before season’s end. Switch-hitting Josh Bellhasn’t hit that well at AAA, but considering the poor production the O’s are getting from third base he could also crack the roster this season. First base prospect Brandon Snyder has heated up of late and could find himself with the big league squad in September. Again, it’s not like they’re getting anything from their current first basemen.

Beyond those guys the O’s have a number of high-ceiling guys at the lower levels. Some of them might be able to help next year, but as the team has learned this year it’s not something they can count on. It looks like the O’s could use more in the way of middle infield prospects. They have plenty of pitching on the farm.

Budget

The O’s opened the season with a $73.8 million payroll, their highest since 2007. That shouldn’t matter much, though. Budget is probably the last item on the team’s collective mind. It’s all about rebuilding now. Even if that means losing 120 games.


Jay Bruce Showing Improvement Against Lefties

To date, Jay Bruce hasn’t lived up to the hype that comes with being the No. 1 prospect in baseball. He’s made progress for sure, and it shows in his 2009 numbers. His OBP sits at .345, far above his .318 career average. This shows up in his wOBA, which is 20 points higher than last year, and he’s only 103 PA behind the 387 he accumulated last year. There’s still time for Bruce to turn this into a breakout season, and given improvement in one aspect of his game, we just might see it.

When Baseball America named Bruce the No. 1 overall prospect in 2008, they said that he “has few faults.” Given his 2007 performance, it’s easy to understand why they’d say that. He clobbered the Florida State League before a brief stint of dominance in the AA Southern League. The Reds moved him to AAA to cover for an injury, but he hit so well that they kept him there. In 204 PA, he racked up 57 hits, including 25 for extra bases. Baseball America said it, though they didn’t really need to: Bruce was ready for the bigs in 2008, at age 21.

Bruce had held his own during his two previous minor league seasons, 2005 playing in the rookie league and 2006 in the class-A Midwest League. One factor that held him back was his performance against lefties. During his debut in 2005 he displayed a distinct split, a .874 OPS against righties and a .719 mark against lefties. In the Midwest League he displayed a similar split, .932 against righties and .790 against lefties. The biggest difference was that he faced lefties in only 21 percent of his PA that year.

We know that splits, especially of the platoon variety, can display plenty of noise to go with the signal, especially in small samples. This effect can be amplified for young players who are still getting used to the rigors of a full baseball season. Bruce showed in 2007 that maybe hitting lefties wouldn’t be a problem. He faced a lefty 30 percent of the time that year and posted a .919 OPS, against a .992 vs. righties. That was, of course, a pretty small sample itself, just 177 PA, but it also showed that his splits from 05 and 06 weren’t necessarily indicative of his skill.

Yet, when he showed up in the majors, he certainly displayed that platoon split. Pick a number and it was probably poor against lefties: a .190 BA, a .263 OBP, a .109 ISO, a .255 wOBA, -9.2 wRAA. He also struck out in 33.6 percent of his at-bats against them. In 2009 he improved in some aspects, but he was still a far below average hitter against lefties, a mere 73 wRC+. He had lowered his overall strikeout rate against lefties but still whiffed against them far more than against righties. He still didn’t hit them for power, a .120 ISO. The only positive was that he started walking against them and had a .313 OBP, while he had a .299 mark against righties.

While, as Jack noted in Bruce’s The Year Ahead section, his low BABIP was a concern coming into 2010, his platoon splits also had to be something of a concern. It’s certainly something that a young player can correct — the record books are full of lefties who struggled against same-handed pitchers only to turn things around as they matured. This year Bruce has started showing signs of such a turnaround. The most notable improvement comes in his power, a .157 ISO on the strength of three homers and four doubles in 83 AB. But he’s made progress in other areas, as well.

Check out the following platoon split graphs. These are just his AVG, BABIP, and ISO, but you can see see his whole platoon graph page and see a similar effect. Many of the graphs start with the blue (lefty) and red (righty) dots decently far apart. In every case they’re much closer together this year.



We are, of course, dealing with volatile samples, both for this season and for Bruce’s career. It would not be surprising, however, to see a 23-year-old start to improve certain aspects of his game, including his performance against same-handed pitchers. If what we’re seeing is a true improvement and not an ephemeral trend disguised as a small sample, we could see a turnaround from Bruce as soon as this year.

His BABIP is up to .324. His line drive rate is up to 21.7 percent. He’s slumped a bit in June, hitting .227 and walking just seven times, but even then he has seven homers, two doubles, and a triple, giving him a .228 ISO, an improvement on his first two months. Things could be coming together for Jay Bruce. If he puts it all together this year and breaks out in the second half, it could be just what the Reds need to keep up their pace in the NL Central.


John Lannan Demoted to AA

For two years, John Lannan looked like the luckiest man in baseball. In 2008, he struck out just 5.79 per nine and walked 3.56 per nine, yet still ended the year with a 3.91 ERA. His 4.79 FIP suggested that he might be performing a bit above his head. But then in 2009 he saw his strikeout numbers fall to an unfathomable 3.88. His walks decreased a bit, as did his home runs, but that still added up to a 4.70 FIP. Lannan’s ERA that season: 3.88. This year, however, his fortunes have changed.

It started on Opening Day and didn’t get much better after that. Three starts later Jack, commented on Lannan’s continued futility after a six-inning outing against Colorado in which he allowed four runs on 11 hits, striking out two to one walk. “The ridiculous amount of balls in play that Lannan allows is finally catching up to him, it would appear,” Jack wrote. “It is a long season, and there is time for Lannan to revert to the form that added up to that 3.98 ERA the first few years of his career.” Yet, that just hasn’t happened.

The White Sox pummeled Lannan yesterday, scoring five runs on 11 hits through four innings. Lannan didn’t walk anyone, but he also struck out just one. He did keep the ball on the ground, inducing 12 ground balls to three fly balls and five line drives. And, to his credit, only one of those 11 hits went for extra bases, a double to Alex Rios. That double, unfortunately, came in the four-run fifth, during which Lannan allowed four straight hits without recording an out. That resulted in three runs. The fourth scored after Miguel Bautista allowed two hits of his own before inducing a run-scoring double play.

After the game, Nats manager Jim Riggleman said, “I believe in John.” After hearing the pronouncement, MASN’s Phil Wood summed up Lannan perfectly:

Make no mistake about it: John Lannan doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He’s never been a strikeout pitcher, and in his short career has relied on command in the bottom of the strike zone. Today, as he had in his past couple of starts, he threw strikes, but very hittable ones. It was too easy for the Chicago hitters to center on the ball and get it over the infield.

Lannan apparently hasn’t had that bottom of the zone precision this year. His groundball rate is down for the third straight year, and his line drive rate is up at 21 percent, which is higher than any point in his career. It suggests that he either isn’t hitting his spots like has in the past, or that hitters know where those spots exist and have exploited them. In any case, it has added up to terrible results, a 5.18 FIP and 5.76 ERA through 14 starts and 75 innings.

Today, we got a bit of a surprise. Earlier this afternoon, MASN’s Ben Goessling reported that Lannan had been optioned to AA Harrisburg. Joel Peralta will take his spot. It sounds like the Nats want Lannan to take the necessary time to again find the stuff that made him so successful in 2008 and 2009. That could take some work, especially if hitters have found his sweet spots. It’s been a sharp fall for the two-time Opening Day starter. It’s no sure thing at all that Lannan finds his way back.


Eric Hinske Working His Mojo in the NL

After a weekend of feasting on the Royals the Braves have improved to 42-28, the best record in baseball outside the AL East. It wasn’t long ago, however, that the Braves were in last place. On May 9, fresh off a series loss to the then-division-leading Phillies, the Braves were 13-18, last place in the NL East. Their outfielders, outside Jason Heyward, were hitting horribly. Melky Cabrera was at .192/.279/.222 and Nate McLouth was at .176/.304/.294. Clearly something had to change if the Braves were going to turn around their season. The answer, as it happens so many times, sat right in front of them.

Through May 9, Eric Hinske had started just five games. Bobby Cox regularly used him as a pinch hitter, so he did have 36 PA. In that limited playing time he was hitting .273/.333/.424, right around his career totals. Still, those numbers were far better than those of the starters. Cox didn’t start Hinske the next day when his team faced the lefty Doug Davis, but the next day, against David Bush, he penciled Hinske’s name into the sixth spot, taking Cabrera’s spot in the field. Hinske went 2-for-2 with two doubles and two walks. Bobby had created a monster.

Since that day in mid-May, Hinske has started 27 of the Braves’ 38 games. He has hit .324/.391/.588 in 115 PA, raising his season wOBA to .397. He falls about 70 PA short of qualification, but if he did qualify he’d rank fourth among NL outfielders in wOBA, just one point behind Josh Willingham. Combined with a resurgent performance from Troy Glaus during the same period, .300/.405/.614, the Braves have displayed a greatly improved offense. They went from 3.90 runs per game in their first 31 games to 5.72 per game in their last 39. That has shown up in the standings. After their low point, 13-18 on May 9, they’ve gone 29-10 and now sit at 42-28, 2.5 games ahead of the second place Mets.

Unsurprisingly, Hinske, a lefty, has demonstrated marked career platoon splits. Against lefties he sports a .295 career wOBA, while against righties he has a .351 wOBA. This year he’s demonstrating a similar tendency, posting a .287 wOBA against lefties and a .405 wOBA against righties. His wOBA against righties is so close to his season wOBA for a reason. Of his 151 PA, only 10 have come against lefties. Cox should have an easier time keeping Hinske out against lefties once Matt Diaz returns, too. He struggled in general before suffering a thumb injury, but he has a career .384 wOBA against lefties. A Hinske-Diaz platoon could be the answer for the Braves in left field. It helps, too, that Cabrera is hitting .340/.367/.468 in his last 99 PA.

That Hinske’s increased playing time has correlated with the Braves winning ballgames should come as little surprise. As Tommy Rancel so aptly put it, “Not only is Hinske better in the East, but he makes his teammates better.” (Yes, he was obviously being tongue-in-cheek.) Tommy was referring to the AL East, but apparently it’s any team in the East. It’s the Hinske magic, and Frank Wren captured it when he signed Hinske to a mere $1 million deal in January. It looks as though he’ll also get that $500K in performance bonuses as well. Hinske has been a savior to the Braves this season. The question is to which team he’ll bring his mojo next year.