Few baseball players do everything. Some can consistently field balls at spots their peers have trouble reaching. Some can beat out a slow chopper to short. Some display a keen batting eye that keeps pitchers honest. Some possess a preternatural ability to hit the ball where they ain’t. A few accomplish this by hitting the the ball so far that outfielders run out of room long before it lands. Only a small smattering of players do all these things. The ones who can do one or two of those things usually find themselves in a starting lineup, or at least play on a regular basis.

When it comes to Adam Dunn, the focus seems to be on what he can’t do rather than what he does well. Since his full-season debut at age 22 in 2002, Dunn has done two things at an elite level. He has kept pitchers honest by taking the pitches he can’t hit. If the pitcher does deliver a hittable pitch, Dunn tends to hit it far beyond the reach of fielders. From 2004 through 2008 Dunn hit at least 40 home runs, and fell only two short of that mark in 2009. Yet when it comes to mainstream evaluation, the focus is not on these strong points, but rather on his weaknesses. That is, his ability to make consistent contact and his poor performance in the outfield.

Dunn understands the criticism he receives, but given a comment he made in spring 2007, he also knows the value he provides with his approach. “I’m going to be Ichiro,” he said. “I’m going to have 216 hits, 177 of them singles, six homers and steal 77 bags.” He did later make some more serious comments about improving his contact skills, though not much came of it. His 70.4 percent contact rate from 2006 does remain the lowest of his career, but he hasn’t improved on it significantly in the past three and a third seasons. His rate consistently sits well below league average.

Even so, he had his two strengths to fall back on. From 2007 through 2009 Dunn hit 118 homers and 79 doubles, which have accounted for nearly 49 percent of his total hits. He has also drawn 339 walks which, while not quite as valuable as hits, are far, far more valuable than outs. Plenty of major leaguers have hit for a higher average than Dunn, but few have matched his other skills. This shows up in his wOBA, which hasn’t fallen below .383 since 2006, that .234 BA year. That mark sits at .386 this season, but the composition has changed. Something is quite different about Adam Dunn in 2010.

The aspect that stands out the most is Dunn’s OBP, just .371 this year. That mark usually comes across a bit higher, in the mid-.380s. Last year, on the power of a 17.4 percent walk rate, Dunn got it all the way up to .398. He also raised his batting average to .267, by the slimmest of margins the highest mark of his career. That batting average sits around the same mark this year, .271, but his walk rate has slipped to 12.7 percent. Dunn has never experienced a rate so low, not even during his short stint as a 21-year-old in 2001. It made me wonder whether this is a blip on the radar or a complete change for Dunn.

Seeking an explanation of some sort, I turned to his plate discipline data, which, as expected, yielded an oddity. While Dunn has established a reputation of not doing the pitcher any favors, this year it appears he has, swinging at 26.2 percent of pitches outside the zone. For the first time in his career he approaches the league average mark. From 2002 through 2009 he swung at just 17.5 percent of pitches outside the zone, always falling a good deal below the average. But this year he’s close. Closer than he’s ever been. These extra hacks at bad pitches also show up in his swinging strike rate, 12.7 percent, another career high.

Where have all these walks gone? It appears that two of Dunn’s teammates have compensated a bit. Ryan Zimmerman, scorcher of baseballs, has added over four percentage points to his walk rate from last year, which had added almost four percentage points from the previous year. Josh Willingham, also in the midst of a career year, has added more than five percentage points to his walk rate from last year, which, as with Zimmerman, was then a career high. I’m not sure if those two have to do with Dunn, but it is curious that those two are drawing far more walks while Dunn draws far fewer.

There might be a solution in this. For most of the season Jim Riggleman has penciled in a 3-4-5 of Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham. Those are his three best hitters, and since they go righty-lefty-righty it fits perfectly with baseball conventions. The problem does not lie in those three, but instead at the top of the Nats’ order. Nyjer Morgan, Christian Guzman, and Adam Kennedy have seen most of the time in the top two spots, and none of those three sports an OBP that screams leadoff hitter. That means fewer men on base for the heart of the order.

Might it be better for the Nats’ offense if Riggleman spared the convention and started condensing his better hitters closer to the top of the order? Lead off with either Guzman or Morgan, and then go right to Zimmerman, followed by Willingham and then Dunn, or Dunn and then Willingham if the right-lefty-righty combo is so important. That means not only more at-bats for the best hitters in the lineup, but also that they can hit with more men on base. Might Dunn get more hittable pitches if he has two .400+ on-base guys hitting in front of him? It seems at least worth a try.

Chances are that we’ll see this run its course without any tweaks. Two relatively weak hitters will continue to hit atop the order, creating more outs ahead of Zimmerman, Dunn, and Willingham. That gives them fewer opportunities to knock in runs. That’s convention, though, and it will take more than an article centering on a few data points to change that. Still, it seems like that might at least slightly boost the Nats’ production. As for Dunn, I’m not sure that a lineup change will help his newfound propensity to swing at pitches outside the zone. At this point, though, isn’t it worth a shot?

Beyond that parting question, I’d like to ask something of Nats fans. Dunn is seeing more pitches than ever outside the zone, 56.9 percent against league average of 52.6 percent and Dunn’s career average of 52.4 percent. At the same time he’s seeing more first-pitch strikes than ever, 57.8 percent. We’re dealing with just 237 PA, so it’s difficult to draw any conclusions. Have you noticed pitchers attacking him in a deliberate manner? Is there a pattern for how pitchers work him that might throw off his game plan? This won’t show up in composite numbers, so I’m looking to Nats fans for a take on the question.

Tinkering with lineups has long been a fan pleasure. We all have opinions on players, and with that comes an opinion where they should hit in the batting order. In the past half decade, however, we’ve learned that lineup construction doesn’t have an enormous effect on run scoring. In 2002 Keith Woolner of Baseball Prospectus tackled the topic. Three years later his colleague James Click followed it up. A year later Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times compiled perhaps the most straightforward demonstration of lineup construction. The results are pretty much the same: a team’s best hitters should bat first, second, and fourth, with third and fifth coming next and sixth through ninth going in descending order.

If the No. 2 spot is one of the top three most important parts of the lineup, why do we routinely see managers place poor hitters there? Is it, as Click describes in his article, the conventional knowledge that the No. 2 guy should be a contact hitter? That really needn’t be the case. The No. 2 hitter’s primary job is to set the table for the power hitters. An ability to move a leadoff hitter from first to third is a bonus, but not the primary goal. Why, then, do managers slot hitters with poor OBPs into the No. 2 spot?

This year in the AL I’ve noticed six such arrangements, three of which continue today. The other three have been removed from the No. 2 spot, one in an ironically hilarious manner.

Aaron Hill

In the Blue Jays’ 55 games manager Cito Gaston has made a few lineup tweaks. He inserted Fred Lewis into the leadoff spot when Toronto acquired him in April. With Aaron Hill on the DL he slid the hot Alex Gonzalez into the two hole. In the past week he has moved the Jose Bautista into the fifth spot, supplanting the disappointing Lyle Overbay. Yet some things haven’t changed. Despite his power outburst, John Buck remains in the eighth spot, two spots the now normal Gonzalez. The Nos. 2 and 3 spots remain unchanged as well, despite poor results.

It’s understandable why Gaston would stick with Aaron Hill in the No. 2 spot. He is, after all, just one year removed from a breakout season. But even then his .330 OBP doesn’t fit the ideal mold of a No. 2 hitter. That seems more like a No. 5 hitter, though that’s just an anecdotal observation. Right now Hill sports a .188 BA and .286 OBP, so he’s not helping the team much at all. Going with the best hitters at Nos. 1, 2, and 4, it would seem right now that Fred Lewis, Vernon Wells, and Bautista should be hitting in those spots.

Howie Kendrick

Through the first 36 games of the season Bobby Abreu was the regular No. 2 hitter for the Angels. He was OK, not great in that role, hitting .254/.329/.420 in 155 PA. Hideki Matsui was hitting a bit worse, though, and manager Mike Scioscia wanted to move him out of the cleanup spot. For a few games he accomplished this by flipping Matsui and Kendry Morales, but after the 12th he showed a new-look order. Abreu moved to the No. 3 spot, Torii Hunter became the cleanup guy, Morales went back to his regular No. 5 spot, and Matsui hit sixth. Taking over the No. 2 spot was Howie Kendrick.

At the end of April it looked as though Kendrick would build on his second half of 2009. He was hitting .293/.341/.390, and probably would have been a nice fit in the No. 2 spot. By May 12, however, he was already slumping. His numbers had fallen to .288/.323/.400, but that might have been just a slump. Scioscia apparently thought so. But since the move Kendrick has hit .233/.358/.356. It looked as though, for a few games, that Maicer Izturis would take over, but for the last two Scioscia has gone back to Kendrick. It’s not the spot for him right now.

Chone Figgins

As with Gaston and Hill, it’s understandable why Don Wakamatsu has stuck with Chone Figgins in the No. 2 spot. Figgins has, in fact, started every one of the Mariners’ 53 games, and in every game he has hit second. The original idea was close to perfect. With Ichiro and Figgins hitting in the top two spots, the middle of the Mariners order would have plenty of chances. With the improving Franklin Gutierrez in the second spot and Milton Bradley hitting cleanup, it looked like the Mariners could make most of their mostly weak offense.

Two parts of that plan have worked out. Ichiro has been Ichiro, slapping hits all over the field. His .342 BA and .392 OBP make him an ideal top of the order hitter. Gutierrez, too, has shown improvement from last year. His .371 wOBA makes him a good fit at No. 3 — at least in terms of the Mariners’ roster. Yet Figgins and Bradley have sorely disappointed. In his first 135 PA of 2010 Bradley has hit for very little power, a .116 ISO, and otherwise has posted horrible numbers. He hasn’t been much better since returning from his short layoff, .235/.273/.294. In the No. 2 hole Figgins has below average OBP, .325, and a horrendous BA, .215. Unfortunately, unless they want to ride Josh Wilson’s hot hand, Figgins still profiles best in that spot.

And now I’ll finish up quickly, as I must run and escape the wrath of Dave Cameron…

Relieved of duty

Earlier in the season a few other AL teams featured poor No. 2 hitters. In fact, all three were in the AL Central. Since then they’ve been removed from the spot, either because of ineffectiveness or injury.

Gordon Beckham: Apparently, Ozzie Guillen does not like having men on base for the heart of his order. He has hit Juan Pierre (.313 OBP) leadoff in 42 of the team’s 53 games. For 29 of his team’s first 32 games he also hit Gordon Beckham second. From the start of the season through May 9, his last day in the No. 2 spot, he hit .193/.305/.257. He’s now hitting ninth and also hitting much worse, .213/.250/.213 since the demotion. Since then A.J. Pierzynski has taken the most reps at No. 2, and he’s been horrible too, .250/.260/.389 since the move and .224/.264/.339 overall.

Scott Podsednik: This actually worked out well. For 29 of the team’s first 33 games Podsednik hit in the No. 2 spot. In that time he hit .314/.368/.413. Yet starting in May he slipped a bit, hitting .244/.262/.488 from May 1 through May 11, when he moved out of the No. 2 spot in favor of Mike Aviles, who is hitting .305/.336/.410. But these are the Royals, so there has to be a catch, right? No way they’d just happen to notice Podsednik slowing down and move him quickly out of the No. 2 spot, right? You got it. Starting on May 12 they moved him to the leadoff spot, where he’s hitting .265/.319/.289. Sounds more like No. 9 hitter to me.

Grady Sizemore: Back in March, when Manny Acta announced that Grady Sizemore would hit second, I liked the move. It would give Asdrubal Cabrera a chance to test his mettle in the leadoff spot and would let the Indians take more advantage of Sizemore’s power. The move just didn’t work out. Sizemore hit .211/.271/.289 in 33 games before hitting the DL. He’s set to undergo knee surgery today and will miss at least the next six weeks. If he needs another procedure to correct a microfracture he could be out quite a while longer.

No one in baseball this season has thrown the slider more frequently than Padres reliever Luke Gregerson. At 60 percent of his total pitches, Gregerson edges out the Cubs Carlos Marmol, but after that there aren’t any pitchers who have thrown the slider even 50 percent of the time. They both employ the pitch for good reason. Though they have thrown far fewer pitches than noted slider hurlers Colby Lewis, Anibal Sanchez, and Francisco Liriano, they rank third and fourth in the league in wSL.

Just last week Matthew examined Marmol’s insane strikeout rate, two batters per inning pitched. He also walks a ton, 5.40 per nine, and when hitters make contact they have produced good results, a .369 BABIP. Yet only four of 28 baserunners have come around to score. That’s where his strikeout rate comes into play. Runners reaching base is no big deal with Marmol on the mound. A few more sliders and he can set down the next hitter. The strikeout rate, in fact, is likely a large part of his insane 91.2 percent strand rate.

Though his strikeout rate isn’t Marmolian, Gregerson’s 10.05 per nine puts him near the top of the league. Where he really stands out, though, is in his control. A pitcher who throws sliders so frequently is bound to walk hitters, but not Gregerson. He has walked just two in 28.2 innings, a rate not only far superior to Marmol’s, but good enough for second in the league. Only the Cardinals Ryan Franklin has walked hitters at a lesser clip, just one in 24.1 innings. Though perhaps Cliff Lee’s four walks in 52.2 innings is a bit more impressive.

Looking back on R.J.’s article from last September, this isn’t exactly new for Gregerson. He was barely hittable then, and that has carried over into this season. Yet much has changed. He threw the slider 49.6 percent of the time last year, still a high mark, but not as frequent as this season’s 60 percent. The results have shown up in the batted ball data. Opponents have a .170 BABIP against him, and have managed a line drive rate of just 12.5 percent, both marks falling far below last year’s. While some of that might be luck, the slider plays a prominent role. It looks like hitters just can’t square up the slider, even if they know it’s coming.

When his slider isn’t working, Gregerson has little to work with. It appears that this has only happened twice this season. The first came in Gregerson’s first appearance of the season. Manager Bud Black said that Gregerson’s slider “didn’t look right” in that outing against the Diamondbacks, who allowed three hits and a walk in just a third of an inning. Then, in an appearance on May 14th, he hung a slider to Matt Kemp. That remains the only home run Gregerson has surrendered this year. It comes as little surprise that Gregerson struck out no hitters in those two appearances.

Whenever I see a pitcher who throws breaking pitches so frequently, I wonder about long-term health prospects. Can a pitcher possibly get by while twirling the ball more than every other pitch? Mike Wuertz, who threw sliders more frequently than any other pitcher last season, missed the first month of 2010 with shoulder tendinitis. Mitch Stetter, who threw over 60 percent sliders last year, hasn’t gotten hurt, but the Brewers optioned him to AAA after 3.2 horrible innings this year. Brad Lidge, who threw 56.2 percent sliders during his dominant 2008 season, spent time on the DL in 2009 and 2010. Bill Bray, who threw 50.9 percent sliders in 2008, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009. Kiko Calero, league leader in slider percentage in 2007, missed 121 days between the end of 2008 and 2009 with various shoulder injuries.

There are some survivors, of course. There always are. Marmol himself hasn’t missed time with an arm injury since 2006, and that was before he started throwing the slider 50 percent of the time. Wuertz has thrown more than 60 percent sliders in each of the past three years and this year was the first time he spent time on the major league DL with arm trouble. There seems to be some correlation in the anecdotes and the data, which does cause some concern for Gregerson’s future.

The Padres’ bullpen has benefitted greatly from Gregerson and his slider. The unit claims the NL trifecta of fewest walks, most strikeouts, and lowest batting average against. They’re getting help from everywhere, but Gregerson has been a particular bright spot this season. The high slider frequency does cause a little concern, but for right now it’s his nearly unhittable weapon. I can’t imagine being an opposing hitter and standing in to face him.

In the comments to yesterday’s post about catchers good enough to DH, someone suggested a related idea. How about DHs who hit like catchers? The idea would have been a bit more robust earlier in the year, when a number of DHs were hitting like sissies. In that post, I noted three DHs who weren’t producing, but since then two, David Ortiz and Travis Hafner, have turned it around, while Eric Chavez hit the DL with bulging discs in his neck and gave way to Jack Cust…who is hitting like a sissy.

Cust isn’t the worst of the lot, of course. He’s picked up just 52 PA since being recalled in late May, so we’ll forgive him for the tepid start. We can’t say the same for Adam Lind and Hideki Matsui, each of whom has a below average wOBA. If that sounds unacceptable coming from a player whose sole job is to hit the baseball, well, it is. Some players might have a hard time adjusting to playing just half a game. Some might find themselves penciled in as DH because of a nagging injury. Lind and Matsui, however, are full-time DHs, and have been for the past two years. Lind started 92 of his 147 games at DH last season, while Matsui played a half game every time.

Matsui’s hot start to the season has kept him afloat through the first two months. In his first 55 PA he hit .327/.400/.612 and generally made Yankees fans hate the front office for letting him leave in favor of Nick Johnson. Since then he’s hit .200/.374/.323. That brings his wOBA down to .313, which just doesn’t fit the profile of a DH. He ranks between Russell Martin (.315 wOBA) and Jason Kendall (.309 wOBA). That’s just not a good place for a DH. Angels fans can rest assured that Matsui will come around. Last year he hit .194/.234/.361 from April 30 through May 24. For the rest of the season he hit .288/.384/.542.

Adam Lind has crashed this year after breaking out last season. His .296 wOBA ranks last among DHs with at least 150 PA, and is right near the bottom of the list of DHs with 100 PA. Just about everything has gone wrong for Lind this season. His ISO has gone from .257 to .171; his BB% has dropped by nearly a full percentage point; his K% has risen from 18.7 to 26.3; he’s hitting line drives 18.2 percent of the time, compared to two percentage points higher last year; his BABIP is more than 60 points lower; his HR/FB ratio is 8 percentage points lower; he’s swinging at more pitches, especially pitches outside the zone, and making less contact. His wOBA puts him right below Matt Wieters, though more than 10 points above the next lowest, Bengie Molina.

Jason Kubel currently has a .332 wOBA, though that’s rising. After a painfully slow start, which hit a low point on May 23 when his OPS hit .645, Kubel has rebounded. He’s 8 for his last 34 with three homers, three doubles, and four walks. Still, many a catcher ranks above him in wOBA. In fact, 20 catchers with more than 100 PA have a better wOBA, out of 32 total. Kubel might rank ahead of Kurt Suzuki, but he’s behind Yorvit Torrealba and Ivan Rodriguez. Chances are that won’t last.

Finally, it would be tough to assemble a post of limp-hitting DHs and leave off Ken Griffey Jr.. There’s no reason to spend time chronicling his poor season, since others have spilled many words on the topic. Still, if I’m doing a post about DHs who don’t deserve the spot, it would be downright irresponsible to leave off Griffey. Every single catcher with more than 100 PA has a higher wOBA than Griffey’s .216. He has said that he’ll know when it’s time to retire. Isn’t hitting worse than every catcher in the league a sign?

This post would have been much longer had it come a month earlier. It seemed like most AL teams were employing sub-optimal solutions at DH. There were Ortiz and Hafner, former sluggers struggling to hit in April. There was Nick Johnson, whose only value came via the walk. There was Chavez, trying to come back from years of injuries. Pat Burrell was hitting even worse than last season. Most of the teams gave their DHs time to turn it around. Some did. Others have been set aside in favor of better options. How long, then, will the Angels stick with Matsui and the Blue Jays with Lind?

In a game on May 16, Jorge Posada, who had missed time earlier in the month with a strained calf, fouled a ball off his right foot. It didn’t seem like a big deal. Players foul balls off their feet all the time, and rarely does it result in anything other than some swelling and soreness. The foul, while certainly painful, didn’t appear to be anything out of the ordinary. That Posada caught the rest of the game made most people forget about it. But then Francisco Cervelli started the next game, with Jorge not so much as DHing. It was then that we learned of Jorge’s discomfort after the foul.

Three days after the foul, the Yankees revealed that Posada had a hairline fracture, and that he would miss three to four weeks. His retroactive date was May 17th, meaning he becomes eligible for activation today. On the 19th the possibility of him missing just the minimum seemed remote, if not impossible. Yet there’s a good chance that the Yankees could activate him in the next couple of days. Part of that comes from Posada’s quick recovery. The other stems from the Yankees’ roster construction.

Over the weekend Posada took batting practice and ran sprints on the field, which represent two of the more important tests prior to his return. A normal position player might find himself activated by this point, but Posada, a catcher, might not quite be ready. The Yankees still have no idea if he can squat for a full game, and might want to give him a few more days, and perhaps a rehab game, to help ease him back. But they might not have to. With Cervelli showing that he can handle a heavy workload at catcher, both behind and, so far, at the plate, the Yankees can easy Posada back while getting his bat into the lineup.

Few catchers carry a bat heavy enough to warrant a regular DH role. In fact, only eight players in baseball history have spent at least 15 percent of their playing time at both DH and catcher. We also have some modern examples who, while not accumulating enough time at both catcher and DH, have established themselves as catchers worthy of the DH spot they sometimes occupy.

Brian Downing

Downing broke into the league in 1973, the year the American League introduced the designated hitter rule. He did play one of his 34 games there that year, though he was more of an all-purpose player, manning the outfield corners and catcher positions. By 1975 he was a full-time catcher, though not always a healthy one. The injuries forced him off the position by 1982, at which point he became an outfielder and DH. The move apparently aided his power. He hit .260/.365/.363 in 2,423 PA as a catcher in his prime, and .272/.375/.453 in 3,527 PA as a DH mostly in his waning years.

Carlton Fisk

Fisk picked up the AL Rookie of the Year award the year before the DH rule came into play. The Red Sox took advantage of it only a handful of times in the ensuing years, but in 1979, amid a few injuries, the Sox used Fisk as their DH for 42 games, while starting him behind the plate in just 35. The White Sox then started using him more at DH starting in 1985, though he still only played about a dozen games there per year. Fisk never took well to playing half the game, hitting .236/.291/.388 in 677 PA as a DH. That might also be attributable to lingering injuries. As we’re seeing with Posada, teams can keep a good catcher in the lineup more often by playing him at DH. Unfortunately, with Fisk his production at DH didn’t necessarily justify the playing time.

Mickey Tettleton

Like Downing, Mickey Tettleton benefited greatly from time spent out of the squat and in the DH spot. He hit like most catchers during his first few years in Oakland, which is to say weakly. He did manage a few average years, a plus, but that production didn’t come close to what he did once the Orioles and Tigers started playing him at other positions. DHing was a big part of that, as Tettleton hit .243/.381/.455 in 1,522 career PA. Then again, he was no slouch as a catcher either, hitting .242/.362/.433 in 3,209 PA. He is just one of 19 catchers, who played at least half their careers behind the plate, to boast an OPS of .800 or better. He ranks 13th at .818.

Mike Stanley

Stanley might have been a catcher in name, but in practice he left much to be desired with his receiving skills. While he played more games at catcher, 751, than at any other position, he also played 301 at first base and 323 as a DH. He hit very well as a catcher, .277/.387/.469 in 2,584 career PA. As a DH he fared a bit wrose, .256/.359/.438 in 1,124 career PA. His .827 career OPS ranks just ahead of Tettleton on the all-time catcher list.

Joe Mauer

The Twins do well by playing Joe Mauer at DH instead of giving him full days off. That keeps his potent bat in the lineup. The only year since 2005 in which he didn’t DH more than 13 games came in 2008, when he started 135 games behind the plate. He missed the first month of 2009, and ended up DHing 28 games. That certainly helped his MVP cause, as he hit .330/.406/.482 in those games. He’s back to catching a bit more frequently this year, likely because the Twins have the lefty DH combo of Jason Kubel and Jim Thome. But when Mauer has a nagging injury, he presents a better option than both at DH.

Victor Martinez

Like Stanley, Martinez doesn’t play behind the plate because of his receiving skills. He’s there for his bat, and it has been quite a potent bat during his nine-year career. In fact, because he doesn’t profile as an everyday catcher, the Indians frequently used him at first base. He has played just 34 games at DH in his career, and like others hasn’t taken well to it. He holds a .235/.316/.395 line when playing half a game. The Red Sox have played him there for four games this season, and he is 1 for 16.

Posada

Posada came into the league in the late 90s, splitting time with Joe Girardi behind the plate. While Girardi was there for defensive purposes, it was Posada’s bat that enticed the Yankees. Strangely, the Yankees did not often employ him as a DH when Girardi caught. In his career he has played 64 half games, hitting .217/.332/.362 in 247 PA. His season with the most PA as a DH, though, came in 2008, when he battled a shoulder injury for most of the season and posted the worst offensive numbers of his career. Chances are, injuries explain the poor play at DH for many of the above players.

In his first eight starts of the year, Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer faced many problems. In 2009 with the Diamondbacks he struck out 9.19 batters per nine innings, which ranked eighth among NL starters. This year, in a move to the AL, he struck out just 5.57 per nine. That, along with an inflated home run rate and very low strand rate, boosted his ERA to 7.29, well above his 6.01 FIP and 5.04 xFIP. Still, those numbers aren’t good, hence Scherzer’s demotion to AAA. After a pair of absolutely dominant starts there he returned to the Tigers on Sunday. It was quite the outing.

Scherzer faced 24 batters in 5.2 innings, only five of whom made contact. Kevin Kouzmanoff fouled out in the first, Ryan Sweeney grounded out in the third, Kouzmanoff lined out, Jack Cust doubled in the same inning, and Landon Powell singled in the fifth. Other than that, everyone else either walked, got hit by a pitch, or struck out. Scherzer’s day ended after he plunked Mark Ellis in the sixth, before which he struck out 14 Athletics. Even more impressively, 11 of those strikeouts came on swings and misses, including all three batters in the second. His four walks and one HBP topped off a mostly contactless day.

With the performance Scherzer becomes the 209th pitcher in the past 30 years who has recorded at least 14 strikeouts in a game. Yet he separates himself a bit from the pack. Of the 98 pitchers with 14 strikeouts, only five have done it in six innings. None have done it in fewer, meaning Scherzer has the quickest 14 strikeouts in the past 30 years. In fact, no pitcher in baseball history has struck out as many as 14 in 5.2 innings. In 1994 Kevin Appier struck out 13 in 5.2 innings. Only A.J. Burnett did it with Scherzer’s wildness. He walked four and struck out 14 in six innings for the Marlins in 2005.

Final fun fact: Since 1920 there have been 87 pitchers who have struck out at least 14 and walked at least four in a start. Twenty-five of them did it in greater than nine innings. The real fun fact is that only 30 have done it without allowing a run. The shortest such appearance was 8 IP, by Jason Bere of the White Sox in 1994. Scherzer held the A’s scoreless, and Phil Coke cleaned up his bequeathed runners.

This season hasn’t gone too well for the two main components of the Braves-Pirates trade from last season. Nate McLouth’s production declined a bit last season after his move to Atlanta, and he has completely fallen off this year. Pittsburgh got three players in return, though the most major league ready was Charlie Morton. He broke camp in the Pirates’ rotation this year, and has been one of the more notable 2010 disasters. It’s hard to ignore some of Morton’s crazy stats.

He has the NL-worst ERA, though you might not know it

If you go to the NL pitchers leaderboard and sort by ERA, you’ll see Edwin Jackson’s name atop the list. That’s strange, because Morton’s ERA is over three runs worse than Jackson’s. That’s because Morton doesn’t have enough innings to qualify. He has made 10 starts, which puts him in a massive tie for second in the NL, but has thrown only 43.1 innings. Four and a third innings per start will not get the job done.

xFIP might like him a bit much

Not only is Morton’s ERA 9.35, but his FIP sits at 6.46, which is one of the worse ones I can remember. Yet his xFIP sits at just 4.38. This might lead some to think that he’s getting unlucky on fly balls, but this isn’t necessarily the case. Morton has a 30 percent fly ball rate and a 25 percent HR/FB ratio. Yet he also has a 24.4 percent line drive rate. I wonder how many 12 home runs he has allowed have come on line drives. That number could certainly alter a perception of ill luck.

His strand rate is crazy low, but…

Morton currently has a 49.1 percent strand rate, which at some point should change. It has already, really, as it has been 60 percent in May after 38 percent in April. On the road, though, he has a 38.5 percent strand rate. That’s pretty insanely low.

It’s not just his strand rate

The road hasn’t been a kind place for Morton. He’s striking out more hitters there and walking fewer, but everything else is worse. And by everything I mean his home run rate is off the charts. Of the 12 he has surrendered 10 have come on the road. His WHIP sits at 2.05, his BABIP is 4.18, his LD% is 28.6, and his HR/FB is 33.3.

When the going gets tough, the tough get Morton

Morton has faced only 12 batters in high leverage situations — when you average 4.1 IP per start you tend to miss out on those dramatics. Of those 12 hitters, six have picked up hits, producing eight runs, seven earned. All 12 have put the ball in play, and five have hit the ball on a line. Another five have hit it on the ground, though, so he has that going for him. Which is nice.

GAB didn’t help

Morton faced the Reds last night at the Great American Ballpark, and it went about as poorly as possible. In two innings he allowed eight hits, including two homers, and walked three. Yet he did strike out two, keeping up his 8.88 K/9 rate on the road.

Randy at Pittsburgh Lumber Co. thinks they should send Morton to Indy. His next start comes against the Cubs at home, so maybe the Pirates will give him one more shot before going with Jeff Karstens or Daniel McCutchen. But man, his numbers are really something else this year.

If not for Ubaldo Jimenez’s continued dominance, Jaime Garcia might be the big story of the National League right now. Garcia pitched six shutout innings last night, holding the Padres to just three hits. Yet on the front page of most major baseball outlets you probably saw a picture of Jimenez, and rightly so . He not only took his shutout two innings further than Garcia, but he also did it against the NL’s top offense. That might overshadow Garcia’s performance, but that doesn’t mean Garcia hasn’t been doing amazing things with the baseball this season.

Garcia, a twenty-second round pick in 2005, made his mark during his 2006 debut. That earned him the No. 2 spot on Baseball America’s Top 30 Cardinals prospects, and No. 70 on the overall Top 100 Prospects list. The Cardinals promoted him to AA that year, and he achieved quality results, a 3.75 ERA in 103.1 innings, though his FIP was up around 4.13. His season ended in July when he sprained an elbow ligament, but the injury did not require surgery and Garcia returned healthy for spring training. He had dropped to fourth on the Cardinals prospect list and off the Top 100.

The Cardinals did call him up during the 2008 season, though he started just one game, a five-inning, three-run performance against the Padres. In his other nine performances he pitched in relief, and while he had a few good runs he got rocked in a couple of outings, including his final one on August 26, in which he allowed three runs in an inning of mop-up work. Just a few days later the Cardinals announced that he would undergo Tommy John surgery. That kept him off the Cardinals top prospects list for 2009. That might have been a blessing, though.

During his recovery, Garcia added his top secondary pitch, a slider, or cutter, of sorts that clocks about 5 mph slower than his fastball. He used it successfully in his short rehab stint, which included a six-inning shutout performance in the Pacific Coast League playoffs. Impressed by his arsenal — which also includes a curveball “that’s a genuine swing-and-miss pitch” — Baseball America rated Garcia the Cardinals’ No. 2 prospect in 2010, projecting him as a No. 3 starter. So far, he’s been much more than that.

In their 2007 assessment of Garcia, Baseball America commented that he, “leans on his curveball too much at times and needs to use his changeup more often.” Garcia has made that adjustment in 2010, using his curveball just 11.2 percent of the time, while throwing the changeup 12 percent. The addition of the cutter has helped in this regard as well, as Garcia can use in place of both his curveball and fastball. He has thrown just 51.5 percent four-seamers this year, leaning on his cutter for 25.2 percent of his pitches.

While his 1.14 ERA contains a large amount of luck, Garcia has still shown the makings of a quality starter, perhaps exceeding the No. 3 expectations Baseball America pegged on him. He has struck out 7.32 per nine, a bit above league average, and has kept the ball on the ground for 59.7 percent of balls in play. Only Tim Hudson ranks better among NL starters. He has also done a good job of inducing poor contact, probably an effect of the cutter. Hitters have just a 16.1 percent line drive rate, which has helped keep his BABIP at a low .255. This poor contact tendency has also kept the ball inside the park, as only one of his 35 outfield flies has resulted in a home run.

During his time in professional baseball Garcia has earned a reputation as an unflappable performer. Opponents just don’t shake him. That shows in his numbers this season. NL batters have hit .224/.457/.364 with the count full this season, but Garcia has outperformed that, holding hitters to a .167/.464/.167 line. He also bears down when his opponent puts runners in scoring position. In 59 such situations he has allowed just seven hits, and only one for extra bases. He performs even better when those runners stand in scoring position with two outs, allowing hits in just three of 32 attempts. Opponents are just 4 for 27, with no extra base hits, against him in high leverage spots.

Garcia has yet to face any opponent for the second time, so his luck could take a turn later in the season. Chances are his BABIP won’t stay at its current rate, and once they get a good scouting read on him opponents might make better contact and raise that low line drive rate. Perhaps, too, hitters will stop chasing so many pitches outside the zone. Garcia has thrown 56.4 percent of his pitches outside the zone, but opponents have chased them an above-average 29.7 percent. His strand rate, 87.9 percent, is the third highest in the NL, trailing just Jimenez and a guy whose luck might be running out. Once these numbers come back to earth Garcia’s ERA should look mortal.

If there is one blemish on Garcia’s ledger, it’s his control. He experienced rising walk rates as he ascended through the minor leagues, and this year has walked 24 in 55.1 innings, 3.90 per nine. He has been able to mask this tendency with his strikeouts and groundballs, but as his luck starts to turn he’ll need better control in order to offset the changing results. He also needs better control in order to pitch deeper into games. He has pitched into the seventh just three times this season, and has only finished that inning twice. Then again, that might be more on the offense than on him. The Cardinals haven’t provided league average run support while Garcia is in the game, which forces Tony LaRussa to pinch hit for him. In just two of his nine starts has he thrown 100 pitches.

In his first nine starts Jaime Garcia has done more than the Cardinals could have possibly expected. He won’t maintain his 1.14 ERA throughout the season, but if he makes a few more adjustments he can keep it under control as hitters get a better read off him. But as long as he keeps the ball on the ground and keeps striking out hitters at an above-average clip, he should be a mainstay in the Cardinals rotation for years to come.

Dateline: April 9, 2010. Carson Cistulli leads Dave Cameron and me in a discussion of pre-season predictions. Dave goes out on a limb and predicts James Shields to win the AL Cy Young and Josh Hamilton to win the AL MVP. I have a hearty laugh, compose myself, and offer safer, saner alternatives. Miguel Cabrera for MVP, Jon Lester for Cy Young. Apparently the latter prediction became the equivalent of the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. Lester, who had already struggled through five innings in his season debut against the Yankees, faced equal, if not worse, troubles in his next two starts against the Twins and the Rays. His line after three starts:

16 IP, 21 H, 15 R, 15 ER, 9 BB, 15 K, 2 HR

After the third start, against the Rays, clearly Lester’s worst of the season, I had to smack myself upside the head. Lester had been an attractive pre-season pick for Cy Young. He actually underperformed his peripherals last season, posting a 3.41 ERA against a 3.15 FIP and 3.13 xFIP. His career-high .323 BABIP was sure to decline. If he could replicate his walk and strikeout rates, 9.96 per nine and 2.83 per nine, he’d be on his way to one stellar season. In fact, if his luck completely turned on BABIP and it dipped below his career norm in 2010, he might have ended the Cy Young discussion before it even started.

Then came those three games. The strikeouts were still there, which was about the only positive for Lester during that period. His walk rate resembled that of his minor league career. Opponents were hitting .313/.405/.478 against him, hitting the ball on a line 24 percent of the time. His BABIP, the one point on which I thought his season could turn, sat at an ugly .352. It was just three starts, hardly something on which we can judge a season. But they were three ugly starts.

There was still plenty of hope for young Lester. Last season he started off even worse, allowing 34 runs in his first 47 IP. That situation was even worse. He had allowed 10 home runs in those 47 innings, and his BABIP sat at an ugly .391. But then from May 21 through the end of the season he allowed just 43 runs in 156.1 innings, including just 10 home runs with a .298 BABIP. His June through September performance might have gotten him into the Cy discussion, but the voters tend to count those April and May starts, too.

This year Lester’s turnaround occurred after just three starts, so he has more than enough time to bring his season numbers into line with his true talent. In fact, with his performance last night he might have done just that. It took him 111 pitches to get through six innings, but when you strike out nine and walk five your pitch count tends to rise quickly. Regardless, he allowed just one hit and no runs, bringing his season ERA down to 3.15. That is right in line with his FIP, 3.17, and xFIP, 3.25. The slight bump in xFIP is due to his 9.5 percent HR/FB ratio, but that seems also relate to his increased ground ball percentage, 54.6, compared to his career average of 45.8.

What makes me even more optimistic about Lester’s chances to put together a league-best season is how he described his effort last night.

“I had a hard time getting into a rhythm,” he told reporters after the game. “It was just kind of a battle from the beginning. I was just not in a rhythm, not in a flow of the game, just kind of had a think feeling.” (from MLB.com)

I’m not quite sure what Lester considers a “thick feeling,” but if it results in one hit and nine strikeouts I’m sure he’ll take it on most nights. In any case, on a night where he clearly wasn’t feeling his best he managed to completely shut down the team that has scored the second most runs per game in the AL. Just imagine, then, what the game will look like over the summer, when Lester has his A game and is facing the Royals lineup. Fun times should lie ahead for the Red Sox and their ace.

On the whole, last season represented another disappointment for former No. 1 prospect Delmon Young. He struck out more often than ever before in his career, and walked at a lesser rate. For the second straight year he produced negative WAR, largely because of his fielding components, but also in part because of negative batting components. It represented the second straight year in which the Twins regretted sending Matt Garza to the Rays.

Yet not all was lost for the young Delmon. It’s easy to forget, because he had been such a hyped prospect for so long, that he was just 23 years old for most of last year. He did show an improvement in his power, posting a .142 ISO, his highest mark since his brief 30-game appearance in 2006. He also showed improvement in the second half. Both his ISO and his K% improved. His batting average also shot up 34 points, despite a BABIP 44 points lower. Even more encouragingly, he capped his season with a monster September, .340/.364/.544.

As R.J. warned us late last year, we shouldn’t look too much into Delmon’s season splits. Plenty of players have posted excellent second half numbers only to revert to their disappointing selves the next year. This is even more true of September performances. The circumstances change that month — benches, especially bullpens, are much longer, and many teams have little left to play for. We’d be better off weighing a September performance in proportion to the player’s career, rather than taking it as a sign of turnaround.

That appears to be the case for Delmon this year upon first glance. Even though he’s producing at a slightly above league average level, a 102 wRC+, he’s still not coming close to his potential. That’s just a look at the results, though. In terms of process, Delmon has showed signs of life. What stands out the most: his walk rate currently sits at a career high level, while his strikeout rate falls far below his career norm. His ISO, .176, also sits comfortably above his career mark. The next stat to the right on his Dashboard also tells a story. His BABIP, .266, is not only generally low, but low for Delmon, who has had a .338 BABIP in each of the past three seasons.

Part of this drop is his balls in play rate. Strikeouts, fly outs, and ground outs are just forms of outs. The only difference is that the latter two count against a player’s BABIP, while the strikeouts do not. It is therefore not very surprising that Delmon’s BABIP has dropped. That drop, however, seems to be a bit disproportionate. If he were merely, say, grounding out where he formerly struck out, his batting average would hardly see an effect. In those terms, an out is an out regardless of how a player makes it. Yet Delmon’s .264 batting average is the lowest of his career.

According to the xBABIP calculator, Delmon should be at around a .314 mark for the season. That’s lower than his normal, but again that’s expected considering his lower strikeout total. At that BABIP, even if all the additional hits were singles, Delmon would be hitting .304/.355/.472. That offensive production, combined with his much improved defense, would provide the Twins with some semblance of the value they thought they were getting in the winter of 2007-2008.

Even as it stands, Delmon has produced positive WAR, 0.5. That includes positive batting and fielding components, the first time Delmon has accomplished that since 2006. If he continues what he’s doing right now — displaying more patience and hitting for power — he might even out some of his early season poor luck and start to approach his potential. The Twins have been patient. It just might pay off with Delmon.