While the discourse surrounding the details of a new CBA has largely focused on economic issues, Sunday offered a glimpse into its potential impact on the playing field. In their proposal that day, the MLBPA agreed to grant the commissioner the ability to implement a pitch clock, larger bases, and restrictions on the shift for the 2023 season with less offseason notice than previously allowed (45 days compared to a year), per Evan Drellich of The Athletic.

Though no element of the new CBA has been finalized, it does seem likely that the league will be free to experiment with rule changes, given little incentive on the players’ part to resist them when broader matters are at stake. Already, there’s been speculation about how they’ll impact the game, with much of it concerning the demise of the infield shift. On the fantasy side, articles have popped up analyzing which hitters would benefit. On the social media side, there have been memes — lots of them.

On the FanGraphs side — well, let’s give it a shot! It’s a few days overdue, but late is better than never. There’s no guarantee that the commissioner will outlaw infield shifts, but if he does, what happens? Will the game be nudged in the right direction, or will its supposed problems worsen instead? What do we want out of a plan to ban the shift, anyways?

A huge part of it isn’t related to any numbers, but rather aesthetics. Consider how baseball is both a symmetrical and stationary game. It’s true that team sports designate positions to players corresponding to offensive or defensive roles, but in most cases, they come with the freedom to mingle and roam about. In soccer, varying formations are regarded as tradition, not experimentation. In football, there are seemingly endless amounts of routes and passes for teams to implement. In hockey, they play hockey.

Baseball is different. For decades, fielders have remained loyal to their assigned districts, moving only to respond to an incoming ball; even then, they take caution so as not to disrupt an adjacent teammate. Fans, players, and coaches have long understood this. The shift, in this context, is an incongruity that evokes a feeling of discomfort. When a hitter sends a ball through a gap created by an infield shift, we tend to focus on the aberration (the shift) rather than the outcome (a base hit). Likewise, when a line drive is snared by a second baseman in right field, the same out appears unnatural. It’s no wonder numerous fans want the shift gone. It’s also no wonder that they attribute this disruption of baseball’s law and order to a myriad of issues. Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, there was a question raised on Twitter that sparked a good amount of discussion:

Which is most important for a hitter?

— Jason Ochart (@JasonOchart) March 4, 2022

It’s a straightforward premise with a not-so-straightforward answer. Bat-to-ball skills came out on top, but there’s a convincing case for each option. Bat speed matters most due to a strong correlation between exit velocity and overall production. Bat-to-ball skills matter most because without a sufficient rate of contact, it’s difficult to translate raw power into in-game power. Swing decisions matter most because good ones lead to favorable counts, which in turn lead to favorable results.

This author leans toward bat speed. It’s also the option that received the fewest amount of votes. This isn’t to say one side is in the wrong — the truth is that all three skills are integral to offensive production — but I’m here to defend what seemed like an unpopular choice. As far as I can comprehend, the remaining two are predicated on, or at least amplified by, the existence of bat speed.

Onto the case! It’s a little unorthodox, though, because I didn’t start off to prove a point. Before seeing that poll, I’d been working on a metric to evaluate a hitter’s swing decisions. It didn’t turn out as hoped, so I’ve put it on hold for now, but at least all that effort didn’t go to waste, because how hitters perform according to that metric indirectly reveals the importance of bat speed. Specifically, I’m going to narrow in on 0–0 counts, for three reasons: They’re the most ubiquitous; this article can’t go on forever; and the numbers get a bit wonky in other counts. See, there’s a reason why it didn’t work out. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s difficult to be a major league hitter right now, maybe more than ever. For one, pitchers are filthier than ever, with mere relievers averaging velocities that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Teams have also become crafty with how they configure not only their infields, but also outfields, to great effect: League-wide BABIP on grounders and line drives has declined steadily over the years. It’s no wonder some hitters are left frustrated.

But that doesn’t mean hitters are without options. “They may take away our base hits, but they’ll never take away our plate discipline!” Joey Gallo might cry, if Braveheart is ever remade as an epic battle between a small nation of sluggers and a tyrannical pitcher-state. That really is motivating, though, because if you think about it, a hitter has complete control over when to swing. He may be influenced by the opposing pitcher’s sequencing, deception, and so on, but the decision itself can be traced back to his synapses firing off commands or staying put, all in a matter of milliseconds. Read the rest of this entry »

Picture this: Bases loaded, two outs, full count in a tie game. It’s the ultimate high-stakes situation, and isolated on the mound is the pitcher, left to fend for himself. He can’t mess up — not here, not in front of everyone. He does what only a pitcher can do, and that’s use the adrenaline pent up inside to his benefit. So on the next pitch, he fires off a 100-mph fastball, up and in. The opposing hitter swings… and misses. The crowd goes berserk. Inning over. Jam: escaped.

This is the stuff of legends. It’s a moment we’ve thought about at least once as a kid; there’s nothing quite like a bases-loaded escapade that captures the imagination. The cool thing, though? It’s that major league pitchers have been more than willing to live out this fantasy. In 2018, Sam Miller wrote about which instances produce a pitcher’s fastest fastball, and his conclusions are intuitive: when the pitcher is ahead, especially with two strikes, and when there’s two outs. Our favorite pitchers aren’t just strike-throwing robots; they’re also swayed by the heat of the moment, making them even more entertaining to watch.

Inspired, I started to look at data from last season. With two strikes, pitchers averaged 94.2 mph on their four-seamers. In all other counts, they averaged 93.5 mph, for a difference of 0.7 miles per hour. Not too dramatic, but across a large sample of pitchers, it’s significant nonetheless. It’s here I began to wonder: which pitchers in 2021 had the largest differences between their average four-seam velocity in two-strike counts and non–two-strike counts? Maybe you thought of Max Scherzer, who’s known for having a second, even third gear. He’s up there for sure, but not high enough. Because this is what the top five looks like:

Hey there, Shohei. Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a somewhat uncomfortable truth: The majority of rookies kind of stink. Everyone wants their team’s star prospects to take off as soon as they step foot onto a major league diamond, but the reality is that development takes time. Last season, for example, rookie hitters collectively put up a 87 wRC+, and looking at the past ten seasons, that figure has ranged from a low of 83 to a high of just 93. Not everyone hits the ground running.

Enter Brandon Marsh. His first 260 big league plate appearances resulted in a 86 wRC+ — pretty much average for a rookie. That can be interpreted as either a good or bad sign. On one hand, he performed like the typical rookie, and his prospect pedigree suggests room for growth. On the other hand, that isn’t a guarantee, and an 86 wRC+ is an 86 wRC+, no matter the context. This ambiguity could be partially why he hasn’t been at the center of prospect discourse. It’s not as if he shined like Wander Franco, and it’s not as if he bombed like Jarred Kelenic, whom we’re inclined to give the benefit of the doubt. A so-so debut isn’t one people remember.

But I’m here to argue that Marsh is one of the most interesting young hitters around, worthy of your utmost attention. And it all starts with a number one might consider a red flag: a .403 BABIP. Read the rest of this entry »

Some articles need an elaborate introduction, but not this one. Let’s cut straight to the chase:

That is a graph showing the number of plate appearances, by team, given to below-replacement-level hitters last season, with pitchers excluded so as to not penalize the DH-less National League. The hallmark of a good team is the strength of its roster, from stars to regulars to the benchwarmers. It’s worth noting that the Angels, with a roster characterized by a serious imbalance of talent, rank seventh by this measure. It’s also worth noting that the Rays, a club littered with usable bats and arms, rank 28th.

We can create a similar graph for pitchers, using total batters faced rather than plate appearances:

Read the rest of this entry »

A fact: Among the 157 pitchers with a minimum of 400 innings pitched since 2016, Dodgers southpaw Julio Urías has the lowest home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) at 8.4%. The distance between him and second-place Brad Keller (10.1%) is the same as the distance between Keller and 20th-place Rich Hill (11.8%). It’s no wonder that Urías has been terrific so far in his career – he’s controlled the contact he allows like no other.

Also a fact: The reason why xFIP still holds up as a decent ERA estimator is because most pitchers, regardless of their talent level, tend to drift towards a league-average HR/FB rate. Yet here’s Urías, resisting the inevitable pull of regression before our very eyes. Does he have a secret? Or is he merely running from the grim reaper, time ticking with each step? I’m still not sure! But if you’ll allow, here are a few educated guesses that hopefully make sense.

First things first, I need to address a common possibility. As Jeff Zimmerman demonstrated years ago, pitchers with higher fly ball rates also have lower HR/FB rates. That’s because they also get their fair share of popups, so the denominator ends up outpacing the numerator. But even though Urías isn’t a groundball pitcher, he isn’t a notable fly ball pitcher, either. He’s 37th among the aforementioned 157 in terms of fly ball rate – above-average, sure, but not extreme enough to explain his deflated career HR/FB mark. Our answers, if any, lie elsewhere. Read the rest of this entry »

Is throwing a four-seam fastball down the middle a good idea? Regardless of whom you ask, the answer is probably no, and for good reason – the heart of the zone is where the majority of hard contact occurs, and fastballs are the most contact-prone of any pitch type. This disdain is rooted in our baseball lexicon, too. You’ll notice that after a ball is hit out of the park, broadcasters tend to remark that the pitcher “left one over the middle” or “hung his fastball.” The location is often to blame.

That doesn’t stop pitchers from trying, though. That’s not always because they want to – command comes and goes, after all – but it’s also because hitting a baseball is extremely difficult. Swings and misses happen! Bad contact happens! In each season since 2015, when Statcast data became public, hitters have accumulated a negative run value against down-the-middle fastballs. They’re still in the red despite seeing easier pitches. Though no pitcher would want to live solely in the middle, it makes sense why one might venture there.

But 2021 brought changes to the majors, and this is one of them: Hitters did worse against so-called meatballs than ever before. Here’s a graph that shows the league’s run value per 100 against fastballs in Baseball Savant’s “Heart” zone. Again, 2015 is the starting point:

Read the rest of this entry »

This is Part 2 of my recap of what happened this winter in the KBO, a league that saw a flurry of signings that changed the outlooks of several teams heading into the 2022 season. Part 1 can be found here, featuring analysis of the KT Wiz, Samsung Lions, LG Twins, Doosan Bears, and Kiwoom Heroes. Part 2 will cover the remaining five teams: Landers, Dinos, Giants, Tigers, and Eagles.

Team Notes

SSG Landers
Shin-Soo Choo 추신수 signed a highly publicized one-year deal with the Landers last season and proceeded to do what he does best: get on base. His .409 on-base percentage last season ranked sixth among qualified KBO hitters, and he took advantage of all those trips to first base by swiping 25 bags, which also ranked sixth. Choo didn’t generate the monstrous home run totals some Korean fans expected of him, but power was never his strongest suit. Instead, he’ll be an excellent leadoff hitter for the Landers for an additional year.

Also returning is Wilmer Font 폰트, a righty with mesmerizing stuff but a lack of consistency. He’ll fan nine or ten batters with ease when he’s on but will otherwise rack up pitch counts with substandard command, often failing to go beyond the fifth inning. He has the potential to dominate the KBO, though, which is why the Landers are committed to him once more. Count me in as well. I’m hoping Font gains trust in his stuff and starts locating more in the zone — even down the pipe. Few would have a chance. Lastly, because KBO players can now sign multi-year contracts in non–free-agent years, right-handers Jong-hun Park 박종훈 and Seung-won Moon 문승원, and outfielder Yoo-seom Han 한유섬 all agreed to five-year extensions.

As for newcomers, Kevin Cron is arriving to replace Jamie Romak 로맥, who served as the Landers’ (and formerly Wyverns’) first baseman for five seasons. Cron enters Korea with an eye-popping resume, including a .329/.446/.777 Triple-A line in 2019, but it’s worth noting he played in the Pacific Coast League, where offense skyrockets due to the hitter-friendly parks and the introduction of those bouncy, bouncy balls back in 2019. His NPB stint was lackluster (.239/.296/.433 in 95 games), which raises further concerns. But Cron is still 28, and the upside is enormous; 30-or-so home runs seem reasonable to expect from his rookie KBO season.

If asked to guess before this offseason which pitcher the Landers would sign, I legitimately think it would have taken 50 attempts for Iván Nova’s name to pop up. It’s just rare for a pitcher his age with his pedigree to consider baseball in Korea. But why even pursue him, anyways? Well, his average fastball velocity in 2020 was still a robust 92.7 mph, and he’s a groundball machine with decent walk rates that might be effective in the KBO. Nova is also 35, however, so there are clear pros and cons. All in all, he has enough positive qualities that he should end up a reliable contributor to the Landers, who barely missed the playoffs last season.
Read the rest of this entry »

While MLB’s lockout means baseball in the United States has descended to the is-Jon-Lester-a-Hall-of-Famer level of purgatory, the KBO has been going swimmingly. As of this writing, all available free agents have signed, and only one team, the Doosan Bears, is without a third foreign player on its roster. And with the chances of a blockbuster trade extremely slim, I thought now would be a good time to recap what happened in the KBO this winter.

I’m doing this in order of the regular season standings, so Part 1 will discuss 2021’s top five teams, while Part 2 will deal with the remaining five. Without further ado, here’s the latest news on baseball in Korea:

Team Notes

KT Wiz
As defending champions, the Wiz only needed to maintain a certain amount of talent on their roster to have another shot at contending – and that’s exactly what they’ve accomplished. William Cuevas 쿠에바스 and Odrisamer Despaigne 데스파이네 both agreed to return on one-year deals, which is great news for the Wiz: Their rotation last season ranked first in ERA and innings pitched by a wide margin. Notably, Despaigne has tossed 396.1 innings since joining the Wiz in 2020, meaning even if he’s a bit rustier in 2022, he’ll still anchor what projects to be a deep staff.

Replacing Jared Hoying 호잉 in the outfield is Henry Ramos, who most recently appeared in 18 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks, hitting for a paltry 48 wRC+ before getting outrighted from the 40-man roster in October. But he absolutely raked in Triple-A (.371/.439/.582), and if there’s anything we’ve learned from his predecessors, it’s that minor league stats can be a reliable predictor of KBO success. Read the rest of this entry »