Author Archive

The Status of the Scouts vs. Stats Debate

“Scouts vs. stats” is an expression that boils a complex, gray issue into clear black-and-white sides,in a way that’s familiar to those who follow political media. In the reality of front-office decision-making, however, this “debate” has been settled for years and the obvious answer was always “both.”

In fact, the issue has moved past simply using both. Until recently, if one suggested that a club should move further toward one side at the expense of the other, anyone could shoot back with a counter example of recent success from the other end of the spectrum. That’s a bit harder do now: two years removed from the Royals’ latest World Series appearance and three years out from the 2010-2014 Giants run, there isn’t a current standard bearer for the traditional point of view, even if that’s just cyclical and I’m using a somewhat subjective label.

The final four clubs standing in each of 2016 and 2017 — the Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, and Yankees — would all rank among the top 10 of any industry poll of the league’s most progressive clubs. If you want to argue that their success is the result of variance, a blip, or mere coincidence, this development isn’t just the product of randomness. There’s an actual explanation. In these last two seasons, we’ve seen a fundamental change in the style of play (a greater emphasis on the air ball, quick hooks on starters, more aggressive bullpen usage, etc.) — particularly in the postseason. A progressive club, by definition, will adapt more quickly to such changes.

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Introducing the 2016-2018 Sortable Draft Ranking Boards

I announced yesterday my looming exit from FanGraphs to join the Atlanta Braves later this week. It wouldn’t be me unless I went out with a bang, so we’re rolling out sortable boards for the next three draft classes today, all of them months in the making. Here’s the current draft order, though it will change as free agents move around this offseason.

For the 2016 class, I ranked as far as I felt like there was some separation (63 players), then gave you 101 additional players who project for the top 3-4 rounds. For the 2017 class, I gave you a ranked top 30 then 42 additional players who have already emerged as early round prospects. For the 2018 class (that’s high school sophomores and the incoming college freshman who were high schoolers eligible for the draft last summer) I gave you 30 players and, within that 30, included four high schoolers who already have scouts excited. The additional players in the 2016 and 2017 sortable boards who aren’t ranked are grouped by pitcher/hitter and high school/college and then ranked roughly in order of my preference within those listings.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 10/6/15

11:57
Kiley McDaniel: I’m making a few calls but will drop in at noon eastern to baseball chat with you

12:04
Comment From Tim
Best college hitter in the 2016 draft?

12:05
Kiley McDaniel: Either Florida CF Buddy Reed or Louisville CF Corey Ray, both from Team USA this summer. Slight edge to Ray right now, but Reed has more upside and could overtake him this year. Both in the top 5-6 picks at this point for me.

12:05
Comment From Mike
The Orioles received some grief for taking Ryan Mountcastle with their 1st round compensation pick. But he performed pretty well in his first professional experience. What is his longterm outlook?

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: I like him as a prospect, I thought he was more of a 3rd round talent, but right before the draft there was buzz of a few teams looking at him in the early to middle 2nd round, so I think Baltimore had to take him there to get him.

Projectable frame, above average raw power, average to slightly above runner, makes a lot of contact, has had some trouble getting to the power in games but he’s still just 18. Most scouts say LF fit, but BAL thinks he can play 3B. Fringy arm and just okay feet/hands.

12:08
Comment From CoolWinnebago
Hi Kiley, have you written any in depth pitcher scouting articles? Specifically what you look for in throwing mechanics?

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/29/15

11:57

Kiley McDaniel: Giving you guys a minute to get some questions in before I start my yapping

12:05
Comment From Some Guy
What are you hearing about the teenage Cuban defector “Lazarito” that’s currently training in Haiti?

12:06

Kiley McDaniel: Fitting to start with one of the two buzziest topics among scouts right now. The hype on this kid is already pretty heavy and many heavy hitters haven’t really seen him before. I was going to write something about him this week, but it wouldn’t have too much hard info, so I figured it may be better for the chat.

12:12

Kiley McDaniel: So he’s a 16 year old Cuban named Lazaro Armenteros that defected. He’s about to start open workouts and I’ve talked to some scouts that saw him in int’l tourneys and one guy that saw him working out for smaller groups of scouts in the Caribbean recently.

He’s a built 6’2/205 with some projection, 65-70 speed, at least plus raw power and at least a plus arm, with the grades varying a bit on each of those grades given the incomplete looks and an age where things are still improving, but the lowest I’m hearing so far on those tools is 60. It’s a CF/RF fit, though he’s played some 1B/3B. You can see why Yasiel Puig is a common name mentioned as a similar player.

He’s more physically developed that almost all the recent big July 2 names you’d ask me to compare him to and the guys I talked to said he isn’t a tools goof with no feel, he’s actually got some instincts.

You can try to triangulate this and you end up in the Yoan Moncada type territory ($31.5M bonus from BOS that came with $31.5M penalty and two-year sanctions on signings over $300K) pretty quickly. Hard to say for sure if it’ll be above or below that, but everyone I’ve talked to said it will be huge money.

Way too early to know a team to project, but I’ve said many times that all the top Cubans this period will be tied to the Dodgers by default since they have limitless amounts of money and are going over during this period…which was a direct result of passing on Moncada late last period to instead go over for more than just one player. There’s a number of other Cubans that would be $5M+ types and would be pool-eligible once they get cleared to sign…so the Dodgers may finally find their financial limits in this market, but not without getting plenty of talent first.

12:16
Comment From Blaine
Wanted to thank you for the top notch content. You do a great job! I was just wondering what upside do you see in Blake Rutherford? How far is he from. Superstar draft prospect, 60 FV? And as a Braves fan, I see the Phils going with an arm at 1, do you think the Braves are in on Rutherford?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: And now to the other topic getting buzz in scouting circles right now. I’m in the final stages of wrapping up my calls/emails on the draft list and there’s been some shuffling from the off-the-cuff names I’ve been mentioning recently in chats/twitter.

Rutherford has slipped a few spots but is still in the top tier of players, which is probably 6-7 names. He’s the oldest of the top prep prospects and is a tweener defensively without much physical projection. So, while the now ability is really good, he still projects and a top 10 pick, and he may have looked the best over the summer of this group, you can see why some scouts may downgrade him a bit when projecting into the future.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/22/15

12:06
Kiley McDaniel: Lets have a baseball chat

12:13
Comment From GPT
Other than Christian Arroyo, who has impressed you the most in the Giants system this year? From what you’ve seen personally and the reports you get.

12:14
Kiley McDaniel: There hasn’t really been a huge riser in their system this year, but I like the guys they’ve added: Lucius Fox from July 2 and the draft crop of Phil Bickford, Jalen Miller, Chris Shaw and Andrew Suarez. Those guys are all 45s and 50s FV-wise to a system that needed some of those.

12:14
Comment From Rick
Can Austin Riley stick at 3B?

12:15
Kiley McDaniel: I didn’t think so last summer but he dropped some weight and now it looks like yes.

12:15
Comment From You up?
Will you ever have a chance to finish the tool grades for MLB players? Seemed like a cool idea

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/15/15

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley’s here, get used to it

1:08
Comment From James
Will AJ Reed’s power and hitting ability translate to the majors? Seems the Astros have a black hole at first base right now. Thanks.

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: In college it was a bit of a concern that there was some stiffness to his swing, but he had a good approach and he hit all while pitching each Friday. So, there was a slight concern about contact but it was more that he was 1B only and weren’t quite sure what he was, with most scouting looks coming in his one big year in college.

He’s obviously answered those questions. It isn’t a perfect swing and I think expectations are getting a little too high given his numbers. He won’t be Schwarber just because the minor league numbers are the same–there’s a reason they were drafted so far apart.

All that said, it’s possibly 30 HR power (70 raw) and he should be able to hit around the .250 or .270 range and draw some walks, so he could still be really good. This is why a bit of a mystery player went in the top 50 picks as a college 1B–if it was 60 power he slides another 20 picks lower.

1:12
Comment From Limp-Wristed Liberal
Hey Kiley! Can you give a current MLB comp for an average outcome for Max Kepler? Blackmon? Polanco?

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a bunch of 50 and 55 tools that’s an OF tweener defensively. A name doesn’t come to mind for a comp, but you can probably figure that one out.

1:13
Comment From James
Colin Moran has put together a good season in AA at 22 years old. Will he see a rise in his stock this off season? Does he have enough power potential to make an impact at MLB level?

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/8/15

11:58
Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be back in a few moments to answer your fantasy football start ’em/sit ’em questions for week 12. Thanks!

12:13
Comment From Fitch+McTeer
Have Archie Bradley, Jon Gray and Henry Owens held firm on their FV grades or have any slipped? Do any of these three have a high risk to bust?

12:16
Kiley McDaniel: Preseason, Gray was the lowest 60 and Bradley/Owens were the high end of 55, just a few slots behind. So, basically there were all the same in the 55-60 area. The only slight change is Gray slid down a few spots to a 55 and all three missed the in-season update since they have big league time but not enough to graduate and just missed the top 26, which includes all the 60’s and a few 55’s http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…Being power-based righties, Bradley/Gray have more risk than Owens, but trying to guess who will bust even with AAA/MLB arms isn’t very easy.

12:16
Comment From Emmett
Theoretically, if a hitter had an 80 grade hit tool and 50 raw power, could the power actually play up in games because of the amount of quality contact they would make?

12:17
Kiley McDaniel: Yep and that happens with some big leaguers like Mauer, but it’s very rare and to project a 70-80 bat that would make this happen, means it’s very tough to predict in advance since 70-80 bat projection in the minors means top 10 prospect in the game.

12:17
Comment From Fitch+McTeer
Can Richie Shaffer be the starting 1B in TB next year? Or will they re-sign superstar James Loney to block him?

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Likely Scenarios for Current Front-Office Vacancies

Two seasons ago, I ranked the job security of each general manager and listed GM prospects. I think I did a pretty good job with both lists given what we knew at the time, and may do it again as Opening Day 2016 closes in. We’ve had less executive movement in the last few off-seasons than usual and it looks like the regression is happening this year, with four GM jobs currently open and a likely fifth coming soon. This seemed like a good time to cover each of the situations in flux and target some possible changes in the near future, along with some names to keep in mind as candidates to fill these openings.

The Open GM Spots
We have two teams without a top baseball decision-making executive, in Seattle and Milwaukee:

Mariners
The Mariners moved on from (now former) GM Jack Zduriencik recently, a long-rumored move that club president Kevin Mather admitted he waited too long to execute. Mather has said they’re looking for a replacement sooner than later (likely eliminating execs from playoff teams), with GM experience (eliminating most of the GM prospects you’ll see below), and that the team doesn’t require a rebuild (meaning a shorter leash and higher expectations from day one). This should prove to narrow the pool of candidates a good bit, but this is still seen as the best of the currently open jobs.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/1/15

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t worry

12:09
Comment From GRANDPA
KILEY YOU’RE LATE

12:09
Kiley McDaniel: Good to hear from you, internet

12:09
Comment From Mark
Comments on the Nationals bringing Trea Turner up without giving him playing time?

12:11
Kiley McDaniel: Talked about it on the podcast this week. On the face, it doesn’t make much sense when he could get regular AAA at bats for a few more weeks, but the fact that he’s likely the opening day starter next year means there’s a little more urgency to see him around the big leagues and gauge his mental readiness.

And, since they’re in a race and can’t play him everyday, it would take longer than 4 weeks for him to get a true 4-week experience in the big leagues. That’s me trying to figure out why WSH did it this way and you can kinda see where they’re going.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 8/25/15

11:08
Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be back and start answering questions in a couple minutes.

11:17
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here and ready to chat with YOU

11:17
Comment From Bret
Not a pure prospect question, but definitely one about an exciting young player. Should the Jays have any apprehension about having Marcus Stroman return to the rotation in a few weeks if his rehab goes well?

11:18
Kiley McDaniel: The answer to any question about returning from an injury is1) they should be careful to not risk his future in coming back to soon
2) they know way more about his body than I do, so I can’t tell you much more than you already know

11:19
Comment From Xolo
Were he eligible, where would Javier Baez fall in your rankings?

11:20
Kiley McDaniel: I was always low on him–I think I put him in the teens a few years ago and people were telling me I was crazy to not put him in the top 5. He’d be a 50 or 55 at this point but I haven’t really thought about him much since he lost prospect eligibility and everyone I’ve talked to about him said he hasn’t made any adjustments…and makeup/coachability/attitude concerns are the reason I’ve always been the low one on him

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