Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/29/15

Kiley McDaniel: Giving you guys a minute to get some questions in before I start my yapping

Comment From Some Guy
What are you hearing about the teenage Cuban defector “Lazarito” that’s currently training in Haiti?

Kiley McDaniel: Fitting to start with one of the two buzziest topics among scouts right now. The hype on this kid is already pretty heavy and many heavy hitters haven’t really seen him before. I was going to write something about him this week, but it wouldn’t have too much hard info, so I figured it may be better for the chat.

Kiley McDaniel: So he’s a 16 year old Cuban named Lazaro Armenteros that defected. He’s about to start open workouts and I’ve talked to some scouts that saw him in int’l tourneys and one guy that saw him working out for smaller groups of scouts in the Caribbean recently.

He’s a built 6’2/205 with some projection, 65-70 speed, at least plus raw power and at least a plus arm, with the grades varying a bit on each of those grades given the incomplete looks and an age where things are still improving, but the lowest I’m hearing so far on those tools is 60. It’s a CF/RF fit, though he’s played some 1B/3B. You can see why Yasiel Puig is a common name mentioned as a similar player.

He’s more physically developed that almost all the recent big July 2 names you’d ask me to compare him to and the guys I talked to said he isn’t a tools goof with no feel, he’s actually got some instincts.

You can try to triangulate this and you end up in the Yoan Moncada type territory ($31.5M bonus from BOS that came with $31.5M penalty and two-year sanctions on signings over $300K) pretty quickly. Hard to say for sure if it’ll be above or below that, but everyone I’ve talked to said it will be huge money.

Way too early to know a team to project, but I’ve said many times that all the top Cubans this period will be tied to the Dodgers by default since they have limitless amounts of money and are going over during this period…which was a direct result of passing on Moncada late last period to instead go over for more than just one player. There’s a number of other Cubans that would be $5M+ types and would be pool-eligible once they get cleared to sign…so the Dodgers may finally find their financial limits in this market, but not without getting plenty of talent first.

Comment From Blaine
Wanted to thank you for the top notch content. You do a great job! I was just wondering what upside do you see in Blake Rutherford? How far is he from. Superstar draft prospect, 60 FV? And as a Braves fan, I see the Phils going with an arm at 1, do you think the Braves are in on Rutherford?

Kiley McDaniel: And now to the other topic getting buzz in scouting circles right now. I’m in the final stages of wrapping up my calls/emails on the draft list and there’s been some shuffling from the off-the-cuff names I’ve been mentioning recently in chats/twitter.

Rutherford has slipped a few spots but is still in the top tier of players, which is probably 6-7 names. He’s the oldest of the top prep prospects and is a tweener defensively without much physical projection. So, while the now ability is really good, he still projects and a top 10 pick, and he may have looked the best over the summer of this group, you can see why some scouts may downgrade him a bit when projecting into the future.

Kiley McDaniel: But Rutherford isn’t the buzzy thing right now, it’s Oklahoma righty Alec Hansen. I ranked him as the top guy in the class back in April http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… but he didn’t pitch anywhere this summer, so he slid a few spots due to a lack of information or uncertainty. He’s hitting the mound now for fall ball and is performing better than he did during the spring, when I said he was “basically has the same stuff as [2015 #4 overall pick] Dillon Tate (94-97, touch 99 mph, 65 or so slider, 55 or so changeup) but is 6’7/235 (Tate is 6’1/190)”

Hansen has been 94-99 and throwing more strikes this fall than he did last spring, so, in short he went from, let’s say 1 in April to maybe 5 during the summer to probably 1 or 2 right now, but obviously none of these silly rankings matter until closer to draft time.

Comment From Pat
Thoughts on Isiah Gilliam? looks like he can rake in a short sample at a low level….

Kiley McDaniel: Okay so now back to some more typical chat q&a

Kiley McDaniel: Always liked Gilliam, some questions about sticking with one approach at the plate and making the contact to get to his plus raw power (from both sides). He’s also a LF/1B fit, so he has to mash. He’s looked good in pro ball, so that projection may be creeping up from longshot power bat to real prospect.

Comment From Kyle
Was Lewis Brinson the biggest mover this year? I know it was a SSS in AA and AAA, but damn he was impressive in the playoffs.

Kiley McDaniel: Into the top 30 in all of baseball and I think I had him about 110 or so entering the year, so big mover but we also graduated like 30 guys ahead of him and there’s a nice handful of almost unknowns that are now ranked near Brinson, like Victor Robles (RF, WSH), Francis Martes (RHP, HOU) and a few others. So, to answer you question: no, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t improved a lot.

Comment From Guest
What is your opinion on Dipoto as a Gm and will he work out for Seattle?

Kiley McDaniel: Smart guy that was the runner-up last time in SEA and is regarded well in the industry, so sure he has a chance to be a difference maker there, but there’s a ways to go to fix this one.

Comment From Mike
Is David Hess a legit prospect for the Orioles? He had a 1.34 ERA over his last 12 starts at high-A, and then was lights out in the Eastern League playoffs after being promoted.

Kiley McDaniel: 93-96 with avg offspeed last year and early this year, velo down a tick late in the season (nothing to worry about) but other secondary stuff was a little sharper. Moving up the list and getting near that MLB discussion.

Comment From Mike
ETA on Chance Sisco? He held his own at AA after a mid-year promotion and will likely start there next year. Any chance of seeing him in the majors in 2016? Will he stick at C?

Kiley McDaniel: Chance for late next year, but catchers always take longer to develop, more weird stuff goes wrong and there’s more to learn at the upper levels than other positions. I know Wieters likes the kid and BAL thinks he can stick, but other teams are more dubious. Tools are there and may be a situation where if his framing is a separator (can’t really know until he’s in the bigs) you put up with some other stuff that is just okay. The bat is for real, though, so he’ll find a spot eventually. If Wieters doesn’t return, he’s the guy they will be looking to and sooner than later.

Oh and that pun was not intended.

Comment From Mike
Is Jomar Reyes a top-100 prospect for you? When he wasn’t hurt he handled full-season ball pretty well for an 18-year old.

Kiley McDaniel: He right around #100. Can’t know for sure until I line everyone up like 6 months from now, but there’s still some shades of Miguel Sano here, which gets some people really excited about Reyes.

Comment From Wrenzie
Who has more ceiling between Yusniel Diaz or Eddy Julio Martinez?

Kiley McDaniel: Martinez. I have Eddy (20 years old) as a 65 runner with a 55 arm and 50 raw power that profiles as an everyday CF that could be above average depending on if the bat is a 45 or a 55. I have Yusniel (19) as a 60 runner with a 55 arm and 40 raw power that can be an everyday guy if he hits enough (50 or 55).

Comment From Mitch
With so many of the best prospects in the Major Leagues this year, which minor leaguers do you think have the upside to be the next super prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s this week’s plug of my updated rankings of the minors leagues from a few weeks back. I think only Luis Severino (RHP, NYY) has lots his prospect eligibility from this list, so everyone else on there would be a prospect now. The aforementioned Lewis Brinson (CF, TEX) was the last cut, so I guess slide him on the end to take Severino’s spot.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From EC
I’m a Nats fan and sad about this week. Any good news or tidbits on our farm system that might help?

Kiley McDaniel: You know Giolito is legit. Trea Turner is better than you thought and you have a new shiny prospect toy in Victor Robles–top 50 dude in the minors.

Comment From Doug
Who will have a better career – Benintendi or Margot?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve got Margot ahead of Benintendi right now. Not a huge margin, but enough that it isn’t a coinflip.

Comment From Danny
Where do you see Tyler Wade relative to the beginning of the year and in the farm system as a whole? I think you said you heard he may even be 50 FV, which puts him in top 7 of the system.

Kiley McDaniel: I have the systems ranked in tiers by FV, since the numerical rankings come when all the calls are made, but yeah Wade is right in the 5-10 area right now.

Comment From Bruce
Who is the better pitching prospect for Phillies Franklyn Kilome or Ricardo Pinto? Based on their development this year, do you see either/both as possible #1 or #2 pitchers?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take Kilome. I’d hope for #3 starter from either of them, but Kilome is young enough that we don’t know exactly what he will be yet. Well tbh I don’t know what I’m having for lunch, but you know what I mean.

Comment From Danny
Do you think Jagielo can make it at 3B or is his only way to make it with Yankees over Bird?

Kiley McDaniel: Still passable over there to where you can’t give up. There’s a shot he’ll end up average but I’d hope for fringy/enough to leave him there.

Comment From Doug
How much of next season does Aaron Judge play in NY? Is .260/.350/.450 slightly realistic?

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’ll get decided next March, but he obviously get some time next year. I pegged his “upside” before the season, or what I call a 75% projection, as .270/.340/.490, 30 homers. So that’s kind the high end of what you could expect. What you’re saying is basically my 50% projection, or what I’d actually expect.

As for next year, he could be anything from amazing to terrible–these projections are referring to his peak years–and guys with long arms sometimes take longer to make that last step to big league ready.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Wrenzie
Does postseason play have any effects in scouting in the Minors? For example, a minor leaguer who experienced an average regular season but played really well in the postseason.

Kiley McDaniel: Not really, Very small samples. Velocity spiking or strength/power improving, etc. in the playoffs would change a projection, but those usually don’t happen in the last 2 weeks of the season.

Comment From Tomas
AJ Reed going to make an impact for HOU in 2016? With their aggressive promotions of Correa/McCullers/Velasquez, etc this year, he seems poised to get a shot next summer.

Kiley McDaniel: I’d expect him to get a long look in the first half of next year. Harder to say more than that at this point.

Comment From Joe
I liked in your last podcast where you talked about different responsibilities for Assistant GMs. At some point could you do an in depth breakdown of the different roles and responsibilities of front offices, player development and scouting staffs. I always when reading over all the job titles, what they do. Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: Sure I’ll tell Carson to add that to the agenda. Seems like a good topic to refresh people on everyone now and then.

Comment From Jimmers
Is Ben Gamel #Legit??

Kiley McDaniel: I was talking to someone about him earlier this year and think he may be one of those under the radar, not great tools but good skills guys that could turn into an everyday guy. Kinda 4th OF profile, but we’ve all seen grinder types that have instincts to outplay 4th OF tools and turn into an everyday guy for 5 years. He might be that guy.

Comment From Danny
Do you think Eddy Julio Martinez has received offers higher than the Yankees pre-June 30 offer?

Kiley McDaniel: Either he has and is waiting for more or he’s had very good reason to believe that offer is coming and it will be significantly higher.

Comment From Guest
Any Phillies gm buzz?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s pretty quiet. You can try to connect dots, take MacPhail’s quotes as literal and probably guess a few of the interviewees, but I’m not expecting a lot of leaks on this one.

Kiley McDaniel: Also hearing buzz that Josh Byrnes has momentum for the LAA job.

Comment From Tomas
Does Michael Reed have the stick to hold down CF for MIL the next few years?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think he’s fast enough to play CF, but he’s good in RF and the stick could be enough to play there. Talked about that specifically on the podcast this week. Nori Aoki is a guide for lighter power types on the corners.

Comment From HVC
Over/under 4 combined innings in instructs before both Harvey & Bundy are shut down with “stiffness” or “discomfort?

Kiley McDaniel: Harvey was shut down in side sessions before instructs started, so that one is off to a not-so-great start.

Comment From Eric D
Kiley,

Comment From Better than Arbys
I know you weren’t a fan of Richie Shaffer. Seems like he has struggled in the majors, but I wonder what a major league comp for him would be… Mark Reynolds or Richie Sexson maybe?

Kiley McDaniel: Mark Reynolds is probably a solid outcome for Shaffer. If Shaffer can figure out how to consistently get to his power in games while K’ing a lot, then he’s a useful piece and he’s also a fringe to below avg 3B that’s probably more 1B fit. I have Shaffer as a 40-45 FV, which is basically hedging for the outcome that he’s less than Reynolds, who was a 50 FV for a few years before becoming a platoon guy (45 FV).

Comment From Dan
Obviously some of the shine has come off of Gary Sanchez, but could he still be an everyday player, either at catcher or another position?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure. Still big arm and raw power, is slowly making improvements on defense, attitude and consistency.

Comment From goodboy
What do you think about Moncada’s bat-power potential? If Redsox call up him next year where will he be playing?

Kiley McDaniel: Upside is 60 on both. I would expect most or all of next year in the minors.

Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry
Does your internal monologue include scouting grades for ladies you come across?

Kiley McDaniel: A gentleman never tells. I definitely do this in the produce aisle, though.

Comment From Razor
Do you see Souza building on his decent last month or is this trade officially a fleecing?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll get better. I had him pegged as a 2.5 WAR type, maybe 3 in a peak year. With 600 PA this year, he’d be over 2 WAR.

Comment From @OutfieldGrass24
I know we don’t evaluate draft outcomes for several years, but we can always question the strategy immediately. It seems like Arizona did a terrible job managing the largest pool in 2015. Would you agree?

Kiley McDaniel: Kind of impossible to disagree with that. You can’t leave 7 figures worth of value on the table and say that you did the best you could.

Comment From Jeff
I have not been able to find anything/read anything about Jays signing Juan Mesa. Anything you know/can share? Thx

Kiley McDaniel: It’s Juan Meza. Lots of details here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Jeff
Higher ceiling for Jays, Pompey or Alford?

Kiley McDaniel: Alford by a lot

Comment From Dr Johnny Fever
What would be your MLB dream job?

Kiley McDaniel: Basically what I’m doing now (lots of different departments/markets), but doing it for a team.

Comment From Tondo
Indians teenage slugger Bobby Bradley owned the AZL last year after the draft and he led the Midwest league in OPS in his first full season gig, smashing 27 HR. Can’t do more than that. Why isn’t he considered as a top 100 prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: He may be one, but he’s also 1B only and struck out a lot.

Comment From Only Pirates Fan in Arkansas
Does Josh Bell develop more power?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s 55, maybe 60 raw, 20-25 HR type power. The pop is there, basically a matter of mechanical/approach adjustments, which are pretty hard to project confidently without knowing the kid really well, which I don’t.

Comment From owen
Are you going to finish the scouting explained series this offseason?

Kiley McDaniel: If I finish the lists as quickly as I hope to finish them, yes.

Comment From GPT
When will you have a good idea on the favorites to sign the talented Cubans who have received exemptions along with Eddy Martinez and Vladimir Gutierrez?

Kiley McDaniel: Basically, after their big open workout, that whole process begins. We see who was heavily at the workout, who gets private workouts and exactly what the player is now, since often they change a lot in the months-long layoff. Some like Martinez choose to wait and then their market resets itself.

Comment From Ryan
I know questions like this suck, but now that Dombrowski and Stearns are in charge, doesn’t a deal built around Lucroy for Swihart make quite a bit of sense? What else would have to be included to make that work?

Kiley McDaniel: “questions like this suck”

Comment From El Duderino
Is Jose Berrios big league ready now, or does he start next season in AAA again?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s ready.

Comment From 976
Is Dustin Fowler the next Brett Gardner?

Kiley McDaniel: I am so confused by this question

Comment From Sirras
Are there any prospects coming back from injury for next season that you are particularly interested in?

Kiley McDaniel: Max Fried, left with the Braves coming off TJ as the top prospect acquired in the Justin Upton deal from SD. Sounds like he may not throw at all this fall/winter and instead debut for ATL in the spring.

Comment From Jameson Taillon
JAMESOIN TAILLON

Kiley McDaniel: Yup, these are my chats.