If you clicked through to read this post, you’ve probably visited the ABS Challenge Leaderboard on Baseball Savant at some point this season. While you were there, you may have sorted by Won% to see which players have been the most successful with their challenges. And if you, like me, are a bit of hater, you also reverse sorted to see which players are now considered a fire hazard because of how rapidly they burn through challenges. In that case, you know that James Wood has won just 20% of his 15 challenges, that Josh Naylor owns a 25% success rate on 12 challenges, and that Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a 27% hit rate on his 15 challenges. Players this bad at picking their spots probably shouldn’t be allowed to challenge at all, right? Well the truth is, those samples probably aren’t large enough to definitively signal an inability to consistently win ABS challenges. Or maybe they are large enough, but it’s tough to say for sure because the ABS challenge system hasn’t been in place long enough to generate the volume of data needed to determine an appropriate sample size.

But even if there were absolute certainty about which players lack the eye for challenging ball/strike calls, sitting a player down and telling him he’s not allowed to challenge anymore because he sucks at it isn’t exactly the best strategy. It runs the risk of damaging the relationship between the player and the team and it shuts down the opportunity to improve with additional reps. And let’s say that player is in the box for a pitch that absolutely should be challenged — given the short window to challenge following a call, a batter paralyzed by self-doubt or concern over potential reprimand is set up to fail. It’s also much easier to communicate and get buy-in on a single, team-wide philosophy than it is to devise a bunch of player-specific exceptions to the rule.

The good news is that there’s a straightforward method for eliminating many of the most infuriating failed challenges, a method independent of any given player’s ability to judge whether a pitch was in the zone. Because there’s more to challenging than assessing whether a ball/strike call is correct and then assigning a level of certainty to that assessment. If you’ve ever watched a batter on your favorite team spend a challenge on an 0-0 count in the first inning, you know that it’s vexing on multiple levels. Even a successful challenge in that scenario doesn’t offer a significant swing in advantage, since it’s just flipping an 0-1 count to a 1-0 count (a swing in run expectancy of about a tenth of a run, depending on the base-out state). And to make things even more maddening, it also tightens the calculus around future challenges, since an additional failed challenge risks leaving the team unable to act on a potential missed call in a late-and-close situation. Read the rest of this entry »

Not sure if PokéBallpark is the game for you? Follow me! I’m about to play the demo, and I hereby grant you permission to roam the land with me!

Our character has just woken up as an amorphous blob. It’s unclear who or where we are. First, we’re given a device for storing all of our PokéBallKnowledge, it’s called a FanGraph. Our FanGraph reveals that we are a versatile creature who inhabits the world of baseball.

Our character (whom I’ve named RedAsh, I hope you’re cool with that) has a transformation ability that enables it to quickly pick up moves from other PokéBallers and take on the role of GM, player, or coach as needed. And it will be needed because the baseball world is looking dire. PokéBallers are nowhere to be found. Once lively stadiums are now deserted ruins. The only sign of life is the flickering screen of a videoboard in the distance. Read the rest of this entry »

Like many of you, Lilo & Stitch taught me that, “‘Ohana means family,” and Hawaiian Bros, like many businesses, boasts that it has a familial relationship with its employees and customers. But that didn’t stop the fast casual restaurant chain from making a business decision to walk back a promise to its most loyal customers.

At the beginning of the season, Hawaiian Bros announced a Plates for Plates promotion in conjunction with the Royals. Anytime the Royals “plated” six or more runs during a home game, HB Rewards members would be eligible for a free Classic Plate Lunch, redeemable the following day at participating locations. But by May 6, the Kansas City-based restaurant had issued a statement to its rewards members, announcing a change to the Plates for Plates promotion. Now when the Royals score six or more runs at Kauffman Stadium, members of the loyalty program can receive a free Classic Plate Lunch only with the purchase of a Plate Lunch. It’s still a good deal, but going from a no-purchase-necessary perk to one that requires spending a minimum of $12 is a sizable downgrade.

So what prompted the change? In their first 17 home games, the Royals reached the six-run scoring threshold eight times. To start 2025, Kansas City hit the six-run mark just three times over the same number of home games. The promotion’s cashing in at more than twice the rate it would have just one season prior is reason enough for the company to reevaluate, but the Royals amplified the issue for those running the corporate fraternity of Polynesian food by scoring six-plus runs in five consecutive home games from April 21 to April 26.

At this early stage of the season, it is fair to wonder if Hawaiian Bros perhaps overreacted to a hot performance during a soft part of the schedule. Maybe this year’s slate of opponents was less competitive than last year. The Guardians, Orioles, Twins, Rockies, Astros, and White Sox made up the early part of the home schedule in 2025, while this year, the Royals faced the Twins, Brewers, White Sox, Orioles, Angels, and Guardians. Some overlapping opponents and similar vibes across both years, but for the sake of thoroughness, I calculated a weighted ERA- to compare the overall quality of pitching faced in the early going each season. In 2025, that number came in at 103, and in 2026, it was 104, making for a very similar strength of opponent in the visiting dugout. Read the rest of this entry »

Imagine a video game designed around failure. One where winning isn’t defined as completing a set of objectives, but rather as finding the most creative, painful, and improbable ways to avoid completing the task at hand. I haven’t heard of such a game, but I’m convinced that it must exist, because the Reds are speedrunning it before our very eyes.

Entering May, Cincinnati was 20-11 and in sole possession of first place in the NL Central. To that point, they hadn’t been more than a game out of the division since April 3. One week later, the Reds are now 20-18, six games back, and in sole possession of last place in the division. Now, measuring strictly on length of losing streak, Cincinnati’s skid isn’t nearly as notable as the 12-gamer put up by the Mets or the 10-gamer that contributed to the dismissal of Phillies manager Rob Thomson. But by several other measures, the last week of Reds baseball has been an even more profound and excruciating experience of failure.

The Reds’ true talent as a team is still a bit of an enigma at this point in the season. They haven’t hit well — their team wOBA sits at .311, which ranks all the way down at 23rd in the majors, but a BABIP of .262 and an xwOBA of .332 suggest some misfortune at the plate. On the other side of the ball, their 4.61 team ERA is in the bottom third of the league, their 5.16 xERA ranks last in the majors, and their 4.80 FIP doesn’t rate much better. With those numbers in mind, it should come as no surprise that Cincinnati’s win total as estimated by BaseRuns sits around 16, a full four wins fewer than their actual mark. Read the rest of this entry »

Though spring training concluded several weeks ago, it’s still spring on the solar calendar, and this year, spring cleaning in Boston involved the Red Sox clearing out some dirty laundry. On Saturday night, ESPN reported the firings of manager Alex Cora, bench coach Ramón Vázquez, third base and outfield coach Kyle Hudson, hitting coach Peter Fatse, assistant hitting coach Dillon Lawson, and major league hitting strategist Joe Cronin. Further, game planning and run prevention coach Jason Varitek has been offered a different role within the organization.

The Red Sox began the season projected to win 85 games, with 60.8% odds to make the playoffs. Of the 25 writers who contributed to the FanGraphs 2026 Staff Predictions, 21 picked the Red Sox to make the postseason and nine had them winning the division, which tied Boston with Toronto as the most popular pick to take the AL East. Heading into Sunday’s games, the Red Sox had a projected win total of 80, and their odds of making the playoffs were down to 31.4%. Their drop of 29.4 percentage points in playoff odds was the largest in the AL, while in the NL, the Mets and Phillies saw their playoff odds decline by 41.0 points and 33.0 points, respectively.

At just 27 games into the season, Boston’s dismissal of Cora is the earliest manager firing since 2018, when the Reds fired Bryan Price after the club started the year 3-15. Cincinnati entered the season looking to complete the transition from rebuilding to contention, but instead finished in last place in the NL Central with a 67-95 record. The Reds simultaneously cut ties with pitching coach Mack Jenkins, which is representative of a common pattern with coaching changes. When a team’s struggle is particularly acute on one side of the ball, the coach leading that effort is often held accountable along with the manager. But rarely does an organization remove seven members of its major league coaching staff in one fell swoop. Boston’s overhaul was so dramatic, the team had to bring in what appears to be a party bus to transport the deposed coaches away from the team hotel. Read the rest of this entry »

“I thought our story was epic, you know. You and me. Spanning years and continents. Lives ruined and blood shed. Epic.”

Over the last decade or two, internet meme-speak has watered down the word epic to a synonym of awesome, but with an exaggerated grandeur not quite captured by merely saying, “That’s awesome!” Because awesome itself has been watered down over the years, and no longer really implies something awe-inspiring, but instead something more akin to “cool.” And now, due to the fleeting nature of internet trends, the word epic is now outdated meme-speak at that, only used by cringe olds, too self-obsessed to notice that no one talks like that anymore.

But near the end of the second season of Veronica Mars, when Logan Echolls (quoted above) bemoans the way his relationship with Veronica has seemingly fizzled out, he’s using the more traditional, literary definition of epic (a little less Homer Simpson and a little more Homer’s The Iliad). Epic poems are rhythmic, lyrical narratives, known for their vast length and fantastical foes. Veronica immediately pushes back against Logan’s romanticized notion of epic love. Epic should not be an aspirational modifier for one’s love story. In general, epic narratives are pretty unpleasant for everyone with direct involvement, but they make for great television. And baseball games.

Late Saturday afternoon, the University of Northern Colorado Bears earned a walk-off win against the University of St. Thomas Tommies in a 21-inning epic at Koch Diamond in St. Paul, Minnesota. It was the longest game in Summit League history and the eighth-longest game by innings in Division I history.

But the sharp-eyed among you may have noticed a strange detail in the game’s description, aside from the general oddity of its going 21 innings. To understand how the Bears were able to win in a walk-off on the Tommies’ home field, we have to go all the way back to March, when the first bad omen befell the season series between these two teams. Read the rest of this entry »

First things first, I need you to divorce yourself from the notion of marrying strictly for love. Because that’s not how it worked for Evelyn Hugo.

Oh wait. That’s right, some of you probably don’t know who Evelyn Hugo is. Imagine Elizabeth Taylor, Rita Hayworth, and Ava Gardener all rolled into one, and now, in her twilight years, she’s sitting for a longform, tell-all interview spanning her entire career — every marriage, every movie, every divorce. That’s the premise of The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo, a novel by Taylor Jenkins Reid.

None of Hugo’s marriages are fairytale romances. For her, they entail more practical considerations. Sometimes love is a factor, but it’s never the sole focus, and rarely the primary concern. Nevertheless, each marriage plays a distinct role in Hugo’s story, in the creation of her final, self-actualized form. Read the rest of this entry »

Hollywood awards season may have come to an end, but that doesn’t mean the rest of us have to stop handing out hardware. So, excuse me while I change into a tuxedo and pin my Conan O’Brien wig in place, and then we can get on with the show. What show, you ask? Well, as we embark upon a brand new season of baseball, MLB teams have announced their promotional schedules, and a selection of the giveaways and theme nights on offer are worthy of recognition. Not because they’re good. No, no, no. Sure, objectively good promotional events exist on the calendar, but I wouldn’t dream of gathering you all together in your best formalwear to discuss bobbleheads that actually resemble the player in question or this legitimately stunning jersey the Dodgers are giving away as part of their Japanese Heritage Night. No, we’re here to shed light on the truly weird stuff teams are getting up to this season.

The nominees for the most bonkers ballpark promotion are split into seven categories: Items Honoring a Specific Player or Coach, Unconventional Items, Cats, Pop Culture, Food, Miscellaneous, and Sport Crossovers. Where available, visuals associated with each promotion are included in a collage at the top of each category.

Thus concludes my monologue. On with the show! Read the rest of this entry »

The introduction to last year’s center field rankings highlighted a changing of the guard at the position, initiated by Mike Trout’s departure from the top of the heap in 2024 and continuing with Aaron Judge vacating the no. 2 spot in the rankings in 2025. This year, Trout might be headed back to center field (👀👀👀), but this isn’t a return of the old guard. He no longer sits atop the hierarchy (spoiler alert: the Angels check in at 23rd); the transition is complete.

But the new guard isn’t just new; they’re also young. Which, duh. That’s how lifecycles work. Something gets old or ineffective, and we replace it with a newer, younger model. Perhaps this changing of the guard is enough to explain the simultaneous youth movement happening at the position. Because this is a very young crop of center fielders. This year, the average age of the player at the top of each team’s depth chart is 26.9. Is this data point merely a momentary dip before the average age of center fielders begins its gradual ascent once more? Or is it part of a larger trend? Has center field become a young person’s position? Is the middle pasture strictly playable by folks speedmaxxing and rangemogging their opponents? Will all center fielders soon be wearing JNCOs in their tunnel fits and dressing their Labubus in Gucci?

As it turns out, yes. Read the rest of this entry »

The rosters for the 2026 World Baseball Classic were announced earlier this month, so aside from changes due to injuries or insurance eligibility decisions, we now know who will be suiting up for each country when the tournament begins in early March. In this series of posts, you’ll find a team-by-team breakdown, with notable players, storylines to monitor, and speculation on the serious stuff, such as how the squad will fare on the field, as well as commentary on some of the less serious stuff, like uniforms and team aura.

If you missed the post covering Pool A, or you need a quick refresher on how the WBC works, you can catch up on that here. The post covering Pool B is right over here, and for Pool C click here.

The five teams competing in Pool D — Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, the Netherlands, Israel, and Nicaragua — will play their games in Miami from March 6 to March 11. The two clubs with the best records after playing each of the other four will advance to the Knockout stage, where they will compete in a single-elimination bracket against the six teams that advance from the other pools. Read the rest of this entry »