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The Quad-A All-Star Lineup

It’s All-Star time around the minors, a time for scouts and fans alike to head out and see firsthand a collection of the minors’ top prospects. This morning I want to look at players who waived bye-bye to their prospect status a long time ago. While there is no Quad-A level, there players with the Quad-A label, and this is my collection of this year’s Quad-A All Stars. The qualifications are straightforward: the player must be at least 27, in AAA and must be one of the leagues top performers.

Some of these players may be current call-ups, which doesn’t disqualify them from the list, because let’s face it, it won’t be long before they’re on the next bus back to the minors.

Catcher

Eliezer Alfonzo, 30 years old, Padres, .306/.323/.565. Alfonzo actually filled in somewhat admirably as the Giants every day catcher after Mike Matheny went down with a concussion in 2006, but he’s been doing his thing in the minors ever since. Alfonzo has always shown some decent pop in the minors, but is as free of a swinger as they come. Over his 12 year minor league career, he’s walked in just 4% of his plate appearances.

First Base

Oscar Salazar, 31, Orioles, .372/.417/.542. Salazar is someone who might just shed his Quad-A label this year. The Venezuelan born player was tucked away in the Mexican League for awhile before coming back to affiliated baseball, and is currently hitting well for Baltimore, in albeit a couple dozen at-bats. His ZiPS projection calls for a respectable .351 wOBA for the season. Contact is the name of his game.

Second Base

Craig Stansberry, 27, Padres, .309/.393/.435. Thin crop at second base, I almost went with Andy Phillips but I guess he recently went over to Japan.

Shortstop

Mike McCoy, 28, Rockies, .343/.443/.453, 25 steals in 28 attempts. McCoy came up through the Cardinal organization before being signed by Baltimore as a minor league free agent. He was released mid-season last year, and hit .343/.391/.507 in 140 at-bats for Colorado Springs. McCoy evidently enjoys the thin air, it’s not only helped him put up some gaudy batting numbers, but rejuvenated his legs. McCoy stole a career high 30 bases in 129 games in 2006, and looks to be well on his way to beat his own personal mark.

Third Base

Hector Luna, 29, Dodgers, .353/.420/.657. Luna was plucked from the Cleveland organization before being selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Cardinals in 2004. St. Louis sent him back to Cleveland in 2006 for Ronnie Belliard, a player who was just a weird fit in St. Louis. Luna’s been more of a defense-first player coming up through the minors, but he never lived up to his rep. He’s never hit over 11 home-runs in his career, minors or majors, but now he’s hitting 13. Albuquerque can help a player out like that.

Outfielders

Shelley Duncan, 29, Yankees, .290/.367/.609. Had his Kevin Maas like time in the sun, and some silly controversies along the way.

Ryan Langerhans, 29, Mariners, .278/.371/.488. Recently traded for Mike Morse. Langerhans seems to be a favorite in the stat-head community for his decent walk rates and most of all, his nifty UZR numbers in left field. Langerhans is sort of a poor man’s Nyjer Morgan, if there is such a thing.

Dee Brown, 31, Dodgers, .303/.364/.567. Dee Brown can dunk a basketball with his eyes covered. No, wait. Once upon a time, Dee Brown looked like a superstar in the making. He was a first round draft pick of the Royals and was absolutely crushing the minors at a very young age. He never adjusted to the majors leagues for some reason or another and has been a journeyman ever since. It would be a nice story if he ever did hit his way into a regular gig, even if it were for a season or two.

There are other names I debated on putting on the team, but these are the players who made my final cut. Who would be on your Quad-A All-Star team?


No Really, Brandon Inge Should Be Your Tiger

Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson are probably both shoe-ins to be representing Detroit in the All Star Game, but believe it or not, Brandon Inge is the guy who deserves to be in St. Louis the most. Inge is having the season of his life, with a .382 wOBA to go along with some very good defense. Pretty impressive for someone who struggled to find regular work the season prior.

A former catcher turned third baseman, Inge evidently has worked his behind off to make himself an effective defender at the hot corner. When Ivan Rodriguez came to Detroit, Inge was asked to move to third base. He scuffled in his first season to the tune of a -18 UZR per 150 games in his first season at the position, but the following seasons Inge improved to +6, +13, +9 and +8. This season he’s been a +13 per 150 games.

Being the lesser bat than Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen, Inge was tagged with the super-utility role last season, but was less than super. Spending most of his playing time as Ivan Rodriguez’s backup, he also played third on occasion and even…wait for it…center field. Yep, Inge was the Tigers 2008 Opening Day center fielder while Granderson was on the shelf. When Pudge was traded to the Yankees, Inge took over as the Tigers’ everyday catching job once again, but for the season he posted a .297 wOBA, his worst season since 2003, that fateful year the Tigers lost 119 games.

After watching a $135 million + payroll tank it last year, Dave Dombrowski remembered that defense is important, went out and got Adam Everett and Gerald Laird this past winter, and reinstalled Inge at the hot corner. Now thanks to defense and good starting pitching, the Tigers find themselves in 1st place, and Inge is having his finest season to date.

Inge has been improving upon his patience at the plate, walking now in 11% of his plate appearances two seasons running. What’s really boosted his value is his career-high .249 isolated power. Inge has always had average power, but this is quite out of line with what he’s done, and it’s not likely that one of every five of his fly balls he hits will continue to clear the fence.

Inge is projected to hit for a .338 wOBA the rest of the season, which is respectable when you can pick it like he can. Because of that skill, Inge was a over a 3 win player two years in a row in 2005-2006, and thanks to a hot start is well on his way to being the quietest 5 win player of the season.


The Mark DeRosa Trade

That loud collective groan you heard over the weekend was the sound of Cub fans reacting to one of their favorite players getting traded to their hated division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. When Mark DeRosa was moved to the Cleveland Indians for a trio of C grade pitchers, it was a salary clearing move to enable the Cubs to sign Milton Bradley, who has predictably been unable to stay in the lineup, and over the weekend was called a piece of excrement (to keep it PG) by his manager for his “shenanigans”. Before trading DeRosa, the Cubs signed Aaron Miles, lord of the .228 wOBA. Good times in Cub Town.

The Cardinals gave up one pitcher that is worth more than the three the Indians traded to obtain DeRosa’s services by trading Chris Perez, who has been regarded by most prospect watchers as a top 100 talent. He was all but anointed to be the St. Louis closer headed into the season, but wasn’t quite able to nail down the job. Depending on how you view Perez is how you evaluate this trade, and of course there is the other shoe still yet to drop. Perez is a fastball/slider reliever who can brings the heat at an average of 94 MPH. To give you an idea of Perez’s “stuff”, here’s his movement chart from 5/18/09.

5213_p_0_200905180_game

With two above average offerings, the problem with Perez has never been his repertoire, but rather his command. In 113.1 innings pitched throughout the minors, Perez struck out 12 batters per nine innings, but walked 6 per nine. In the 65.1 big league innings, he’s struck out 10 batters per nine but walked 5.2 per nine and has a FIP of 4.38. It’s that lack of command that has prevented him from ascending into the high leverage innings, and he lost his manager’s trust this year, with an average leverage index of a .84, compared with an LI of 1.34 the previous season.

If the Indians can coax Perez into throwing more strikes, they’ll have a good, cheap high-leverage reliever under team control for the next five years, making this deal a real win. If that doesn’t happen, he’s basically another Kyle Farnsworth, which still has some value, but isn’t exactly a rare commodity.

Mark DeRosa is a La Russa guy if there ever was one, in that he’s a veteran who can play a bunch of different positions, and the good news for Cardinal fans is he can actually hit a little bit. With Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick and Chris Duncan slumping at the same time and Troy Glaus still on the shelf, the Cardinals in sore need of some run production. DeRosa is not a world-beater, but is projected to hit for a .348 wOBA the rest of the season, and he will probably be playing third base more often than not. The Cardinals are getting a .296 wOBA from the position, so they’ll gladly take it.

DeRosa’s not a plus defender at 3B by any stretch (-8 UZR per 150 games career), but neither was Joe Thurston. The last three seasons DeRosa’s been near a 3 win player or better, and should give the Cardinals about ~1-1.5 WAR the rest of the way. In a division in which the cellar-dwelling Pirates are just five games out, that could mean a world of difference for the Cardinals.

The Cardinals may have paid a stiffer price than they’d like by giving up their “future closer” for a half a season’s rental, but chances are Perez’s command never quite comes around, and they still would have been driven to the market once Ryan Franklin’s magic closer beard gets shaved off, or when he becomes a free agent in 2010, whichever comes first. I have to also think this trade was made not to just get DeRosa, but to keep him away from Milwaukee and Chicago, who also were expressing an interest.


What’s Wrong with Rollins?

With now over 300 plate appearances into the season, it’s hard to keep saying it’s just a slump for Jimmy Rollins. To the chagrin of his fantasy owners and fans of the reigning World Champs, the 2007 MVP is currently the worst hitting regular shortstop in baseball. His .255 wOBA translates to -20.5 batting runs. His manager, Charlie Manuel recently said Jimmy needs to “sit and relax”, meaning Rollins is going to ride some pine for a while and try and sort things out.

While I’d like to point to his .218 BABIP and blame bad luck, it is a little more dubious than that. Rollins really is trending downward in all the wrong places.

        BB%     LD%     IFFB%   HR/FB   wFB/C   Spd    UZR/150
2007    6.4     19.9     7.5    10.7     0.58   8.8     6.3
2008    9.4 	24.0    11.8     7.2    -0.12   7.8    15.0
2009    5.1     16.5    14.4     5.4    -1.57   5.7     4.0

What really rears it’s ugly head is that J-Roll is really having some major hang-ups with the heat, to the tune of -1.57 runs per 100 fastballs pitched. He’s also not striking the ball with authority, as evidenced by a plummeting line-drive rate and a hike in infield flies. It could be something as simple as a flat swing, or it could a slowing bat. That’s where scouting comes in, and someone who regularly watches the Phillies can feel free to help me fill in the blanks.

There’s also that drop in his speed score and UZR, which could have other implications, as in maybe he’s lost a step. At 31-years old, I’m hardly saying Rollins is finished, though I think this could be the beginning of the end of Rollins best days. Of course, he also could win another MVP next year and make me look really stupid.

Regardless of whether he’s entering a decline phase or is just in the slump of a lifetime, there has to be a little hand-wringing going on in Philadelphia over their star shortstop.


In Defense of Tony Sanchez

The Pirates were pilloried for “playing it safe” with their selection of Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez as the 4th overall pick on draft day. Most draft gurus and pundits seemed to think a bigger reach could not have been made if Neil Huntington had Go-Go Gadget arms. But was it really so terrible?

One rainy day I took the time to compile the first 6-year WAR totals for all the first round picks drafted in the 1990’s. (6 years because that’s how long a player is under team control). I’ve shared some of the findings elsewhere, but I wanted to revisit the research with respect to the Pirates’ first round pick. Just getting down to brass tacks, college hitters, on average, are worth 1 WAR per season while under team control. What Bucco fans seemed to have wanted was another pitcher, but if any fanbase should know the risk of drafting pitchers in the 1st round, it should be Pittsburgh fans.

While it’s true the strength of this draft was in arms; the problem is that historically first round pitchers have been less valuable than position players. In my study, high school pitchers on average contributed .4 WAR per year during his first 6 years in the majors. College pitchers were only a little better, averaging .5 WAR a season. Furthermore, very highly drafted pitchers seldom become stars, even though most make a contribution. The knock on Sanchez is that he’s hardly a superstar in the making, but then again neither are most the pitchers selected at or near the top of the draft.

So what sort of a big league future do scouts envision for Sanchez? In a nutshell, they see a defense-first catcher with slightly above average hitting skills. Being a catcher is about as physically and mentally demanding job as you can imagine, making them harder to come by. That’s why they get a +12.5 run adjustment when figuring their WAR. And most catchers really suck at hitting; the average regular catcher posted a .315 wOBA last year. Say Sanchez meets expectations by being good for a .320 wOBA and half a win on defense every season. We’re talking about a 2, 2 ½ win per season player. Is that really so awful?

After playing it safe with their highest and most expensive pick, Pittsburgh then loaded up on some high-upside arms, including some potentially tough to sign players. Seems to me Huntington executed a well-laid out plan. Play it safe first with a college position player, then load up on pitching when the distinct advantages disappear.

Now if he can bring Miguel Angel Sano into the fold, the Pirates will have one heck of a farm system.


What’s Eating Max Ramirez?

Winning a big league job this year was well within Max Ramirez’s reach, despite the fact that he found himself behind Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden on the Rangers’ depth chart. He looked to be even more prepared for a big league gig after smacking 15 homers in the Venezuelan Winter League before the season. No, he’s not the defensive catcher Teagarden is, in fact far from it. And no, he’s never been the centerpiece of a headline trade as Salty has, not unless you consider being traded for Bob Wickman or a 40-year old Kenny Lofton a blockbuster deal. What Ramirez is, or was supposed to be, was the best pure-hitter out of the three and that was his stake on the Rangers’ catching job.

Well, at least that as his claim. I fully realize that it is only mid-June, but since getting the call up to AAA Oklahoma City, Ramirez’s plate discipline has gone completely kerflooey.

maxramplatedisc

While it’s not unusual to see Ramirez strike out, he’s really found himself in dangerous territory as of late, striking out in a third of his plate appearances. What really sticks out like a sore thumb is the big decrease in his walk rate. Ramirez hasn’t had a wOBA under .400 over a full season in his minor league career, but currently is among the bottom of the Pacific Coast League pack with a wOBA of just .282.

With the Salty/Teagarden platoon equaling just .6 WAR to this point, and Chris Davis melting like a Popsicle in the hot Texas sun, Ramirez picked a real bad time to hit the skids. Tools don’t just evaporate for a 24-year old hitter, but Ramirez needs to find his bearings soon. For someone whose bat was supposed to give him an opportunity to play, and now with surprisingly ample opportunity in Arlington, Ramirez finds himself on the outside looking in.


Colby Jack

First of all, let me say thanks to David Appelman for inviting me to the party. It’s an honor to be a part of a team of such great writers, hopefully I can maintain the standard of excellence they’ve set. Let’s just get this out of the way right now: I am a Cardinal fan, so please indulge me a bit this morning as sing the praises of the best Cardinal rookie to come along since Phat Albert.

Colby Rasmus is well on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year, but early on in the season, it looked like he might have been quickly shuttled back down to AAA. After his first thirty games, Colby was hitting for a meager .263/.343/.379 line as the Cardinals’ 4th outfielder. The isolated plate discipline looked good, but Colby wasn’t really showing the “five tools” he was hyped for in the minors, particularly power. It seemed all too often Colby was watching strike three go by, and his manager preached to him to take a more aggressive approach.

Normally you cringe when you hear a manager telling a kid to stop walking and start hacking, but at least to this point, it’s working for Colby. Since 5/15, Colby is hitting .283/.302/.531, and in the month of June the young Mr. Rasmus is hitting .375/.375/.625. I guess when you’re beating the living hell out of the ball, what’s the point in taking a walk?

Looking at his plate discipline stats, you’ll find he’s no Pablo Sandoval. He does swing at more pitches in the zone than your average bear — the average Z-Swing% is 65.8%, Colby’s is 74.9%, but he’s not just swinging away at any and everything thrown in his direction. His O-Swing% is 24%, which is major league average. In the minors, Colby walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances, so the ability to draw walks is there, at least in potential.

For another oddity, Colby also has reached double-digits in stolen bases in each of his seasons in the minors dating back to his Appy League days, but only has one steal so far this season. I think that speaks more to his team’s philosophy than on Colby’s ability.

What we’re seeing is a 22-year old kid just starting to figure out how good he is, and it’s only going to get better from here. Colby currently has a .336 wOBA and has played freakishly good defense, with a UZR of 12. His rest of season ZiPS projection calls for a modest .323 wOBA which he could easily surpass. Assuming he’s not this amazing at defense, but is at least a +1 win fly catcher in center as his minor league numbers suggest, and we’re talking about not just the Senior Circuit’s best rookie, but one of its best center fielders, and this could just be the tip of the iceberg of what is to come.