Colby Jack
First of all, let me say thanks to David Appelman for inviting me to the party. It’s an honor to be a part of a team of such great writers, hopefully I can maintain the standard of excellence they’ve set. Let’s just get this out of the way right now: I am a Cardinal fan, so please indulge me a bit this morning as sing the praises of the best Cardinal rookie to come along since Phat Albert.
Colby Rasmus is well on his way to winning the NL Rookie of the Year, but early on in the season, it looked like he might have been quickly shuttled back down to AAA. After his first thirty games, Colby was hitting for a meager .263/.343/.379 line as the Cardinals’ 4th outfielder. The isolated plate discipline looked good, but Colby wasn’t really showing the “five tools” he was hyped for in the minors, particularly power. It seemed all too often Colby was watching strike three go by, and his manager preached to him to take a more aggressive approach.
Normally you cringe when you hear a manager telling a kid to stop walking and start hacking, but at least to this point, it’s working for Colby. Since 5/15, Colby is hitting .283/.302/.531, and in the month of June the young Mr. Rasmus is hitting .375/.375/.625. I guess when you’re beating the living hell out of the ball, what’s the point in taking a walk?
Looking at his plate discipline stats, you’ll find he’s no Pablo Sandoval. He does swing at more pitches in the zone than your average bear — the average Z-Swing% is 65.8%, Colby’s is 74.9%, but he’s not just swinging away at any and everything thrown in his direction. His O-Swing% is 24%, which is major league average. In the minors, Colby walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances, so the ability to draw walks is there, at least in potential.
For another oddity, Colby also has reached double-digits in stolen bases in each of his seasons in the minors dating back to his Appy League days, but only has one steal so far this season. I think that speaks more to his team’s philosophy than on Colby’s ability.
What we’re seeing is a 22-year old kid just starting to figure out how good he is, and it’s only going to get better from here. Colby currently has a .336 wOBA and has played freakishly good defense, with a UZR of 12. His rest of season ZiPS projection calls for a modest .323 wOBA which he could easily surpass. Assuming he’s not this amazing at defense, but is at least a +1 win fly catcher in center as his minor league numbers suggest, and we’re talking about not just the Senior Circuit’s best rookie, but one of its best center fielders, and this could just be the tip of the iceberg of what is to come.
Erik Manning is the founder of Future Redbirds and covers the Cardinals for Heater Magazine. You can get more of his analysis and rantings in bite-sized bits by following him on twitter.
Welcome to Fangraphs erik! You are very busy in your “retirement”. FR, BTB and now this…
“He does swing at more pitches in the zone then you’re average bear”
*your
I think there’s a decent case to be made based on his minor league stats that he wasn’t lost or overwhelmed by being in the big leagues earlier this year, but that he is a traditional slow starter. He was pretty bad last year to start the year before exploding a couple months into the season, and I would expect the same this year.
“He does swing at more pitches then *your* average bear”
*THAN*
Wow, two obvious grammar errors in my first post, all in one sentence. Forget rookie hazings, I just hazed myself. Very nice. At least I spelled Appelman correctly.
Nick,
You forget his other blog http://www.pitchershiteighth.com
Yeah you’re right I forgot about that. He must not have a “real” job…
I thought he was “retiring” to spend time with the family 😉
But the thing he has done is given up a lot of the DFRs which obviously take a lot more time than I would have expected but after looking at it I can see why (lots of links and some background and sometimes non standard stats not found in the box scores, etc.)
What can I say boys, I’m the Brett Favre of baseball blogging in that right, but hopefully I’m less annoying. When you get the opportunity to write for blogs like BtB or Fangraphs, you pretty much have to say yes. And I have my family’s “ok”, so why not?
Wow, now Erik is getting credit for my site too?!?! 🙂
Good stuff Erik, glad to see you over here.
That’s right the neglected blog is playahardnine.
erik – Glad to hear the family signed on…I was starting to think that you were like the fisherman that you see out on the lake in the cold rain, you know the one who you see out there and think to yourself, “he must really hate his wife.”
for some reason I could have sworn that Erik was doing that site…now I am all confused
First off congrats Erik, nice to see you over here. Now back to Colby.
I am surprised you didn’t talk about his Lefty vs Righty splits.
.872 vs RH in 167 AB’s
.402 vs LH in 44 AB’s
Now he does have have a .118 BABIP vs LH pitching but it is something to keep an eye on. He didn’t show really any kind of splits in the minor leagues
.826 vs LH
.860 vs RH
With young guys like Rasmus, pitchers are more likely to throw them pitches in the zone to see if they can actually hit. It makes sense for Rasmus to take a more aggressive approach until they start throwing him junk outside. The real test will be when they stop throwing him strikes, to see if Rasmus adjusts and starts walking more again.
Congrats on the new gig, Erik. Great stuff on Colby. I love watching him hit but would also like to see just a little more patience at the plate. Of course, only 1 player on the Cards’ team seems to have any. Thank God we have him.
I agree with everything posted by this esteemed VEB front-pager.
I also want to say congrats to Erik for the gig. Seems like he’s got something of a posse.
David, you made a big mistake with this signing.