Author Archive

On Shin-Soo Choo and the Charity of a Hit

It’s so funny, the things that stick with us from when we were kids. I don’t remember learning to read, but I do vividly recall the time my father told me I shouldn’t eat raisins because they are actually roly-poly bugs. I’ve since come to learn that Dad was fibbing, but I still don’t care for raisins. I carefully pick them out of trail mix in favor of M&Ms and peanuts. Part of it is the taste and some of it is the little seeds, but at least a bit of it is a concern that one of them will start moving around in my mouth as I chew. I know I’m not appreciating raisins as I should, but I just can’t shake what my dad said. And I think baseball types, so long enamored with batting average, might be similarly stuck when it comes to on-base streaks, even though our tastes have matured past thinking we’re eating bugs.

Shin-Soo Choo has a 51-game on-base streak, and we aren’t really talking about it much. We are talking about it some, of course. Back on July 6, when Choo’s streak was 44 games long, Jay Jaffe checked in on the venerable company Choo could soon be keeping if he kept streaking. The Rangers have mentioned it on their broadcasts. But a search of MLB’s twitter account for “Choo on base” since May 13, when the streak began, doesn’t return any results. I don’t recall any At-Bat notifications about it. It seems to have gone largely unremarked upon, which suggests it isn’t thought to be that remarkable, and I’ve been trying to figure out why.

I should say, hitting streaks have a greater degree of difficulty. After all, there is only one thing you can do to extend a hitting streak — which, most obviously, is to get a hit. No player has really come close to challenging Joe DiMaggio’s famous 1941 56-game hitting streak; the next closest batter, Pete Rose, tapped out at 44 hits during in 1978.

But it’s more than just the degree of difficulty. I think it’s that we see too much charity in the walks and hit by pitches that find their way into on-base streaks. We tend to think of hits in terms of action and, importantly, in terms of having earned something. They’re about the hitter doing. Walks, or a pitch that plunks a guy in the ribs, on the other hand, seem to carry with them the generosity of strangers. Sometimes it’s the pitcher’s, for being unable or unwilling (undoubtedly the worst sort of charity in this calculus is the intentional kind) to locate. Sometimes it’s a fielder, who doesn’t get an error but really ought to have gotten that ball. Or else it’s the umpire’s, for balls that really ought to be strikes. Even though we know that patience is a skill — a skill we prize! — we can’t shake the sense that the batter has been given a little gift. Has done a little less doing. And while that’s partly fair, I would assert that how we seem to think of Choo’s streak suggests that we see too much of the charity in walks and hit by pitches (a rather mean sort of present!) and too little of the charity in hitting.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/17/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Good morning all, and welcome to the chat!

12:01
Meg Rowley: As I mentioned last week, there is likely to be a bit of shifting around with the Tuesday schedule in the weeks to come so that we aren’t doubling up on chats.

12:01
Meg Rowley: But until then, here I am!

12:01
Waltharius: Why would LAD need Machado? They have enough hitting in Taylor at SS, and Turner at 3B

12:03
Meg Rowley: It allows them to move on from Forsythe. Heyman had a tweet on how they’d shift around the infield and I imagine it’s pretty close to what you’d see.

12:03
Rox Rox Purple Sox: Rockies have a ton of infield prospects in the pipeline (Bregman, Hampson, Welker). Do you think those guys factor into a decision to resign LeMahieu this year, or are they too far away?

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On Liking Jean Segura

There are few things that can make us feel more anxious than when we realize that people we consider our friends don’t enjoy the same things we do. Music, comedy specials, how much to go outside. There’s a little daring in liking things, especially when we like them deeply. By professing that we like something, we invite someone else to say that they don’t like that something, and then suddenly, there is one less thing that knits us to that someone.

Not liking the same little somethings is fine; I like eggplant and I have friends who don’t and it has never mattered, not even one time. But it can be hard to suss out in advance which little things, when pulled open, will lead to the bigger somethings that do matter. And so sharing the things we like can make us feel nervous. Perhaps you, the eggplant disliker, don’t care for its texture. That’s fine; eggplant has divisive mouthfeel. But maybe you don’t like it because you prefer the meaty taste of the human persons you have folded up in your basement freezer. That’s considerably less good! I went in liking eggplant and came out knowing you’re a murderer. Friendship can be dicey in this way, but I guess we have to risk it.

So here’s what I like. I like watching Jean Segura play baseball.

I liked this single, on a ball just above the zone.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/10/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Good morning, and welcome to the chat!

12:00
Meg Rowley: Carson has some away from his computer business to attend to, so I’ll just be going an hour so as to ensure that FanGraphs does not burn down in his absence. But for now? Chat!

12:00
Zonk: The contract is a sunk cost, but is Albert Pujols even worth a roster spot at this point into next season?  If the answer is no, how does this play out for the Angels and Albert?

12:01
Meg Rowley: He’s a marginally better hitter than last year? Pujols has not been good, and the feel good milestones are pretty much behind him now, but also, he isn’t the real reason the Angels aren’t in a Wild Card spot.

12:02
Meg Rowley: Given how the org has dealt with big, bad contracts in the past, I’d be surprised if they cut him outright.

12:03
Meg Rowley: In my own life, I once faced a decision between making finance money and being happy and satisfied, and decided to make a lot less, but I also wasn’t making Pujols’ salary. I imagine a time will come when it isn’t worth it for him anymore, but I wonder if that will be more a function of physical discomfort (he looks like running isn’t fun for him) than pride.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/3/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Happy baseball chat from the mountains, friends!

12:00
Meg Rowley: I’ll probably go a bit shorter than usual today in an effort to do some editing (read: go on a hike before it gets too hot).

12:00
Meg Rowley: But for now? Chat!

12:01
Brad Johnson: Does Justin always chat at the same time as you? (I swapped shifts with him)

Should I forward all the fantasy questions to you? You can direct the poop and farts to me I suppose.

12:01
Meg Rowley: He does I think? Everyone, go ask Brad your fantasy baseball questions.

12:01
Meg Rowley: Don’t you dare take the poop/farts beat away from me, Brad.

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Let’s Use Reason to Deduce When Archie Bradley Pooped Himself

I don’t know how exactly I came to occupy this particular beat, but it sure seems to be at least a little mine. One piece dedicated to wondering not if but why Adam Lind maybe visibly farted might be dismissed as a fluke, but this entry is likely sufficient to constitute a pattern. So here I am, the person who scrutinizes baseball players’ various public excretions. Today? Pooping!

On the June 26 episode of the Yahoo Sports MLB Podcast, Archie Bradley recounted a funny – if gross – story to Tim Brown. Per Mike Oz’s transcript:

“I was warming up to go in a game. I knew I had the next hitter. I knew he was on deck. The at-bat was kinda taking a little bit. As a bullpen guy in these big situations, I call ’em nervous pees, where like I don’t have to pee a lot, but I know I have to pee before I go in the game. I can’t believe I’m telling you this,” Bradley said to Yahoo Sports.

So it’s a 2-2 count, and I’m like, ‘Man, I have to pee. I have to go pee.’ So I run in our bathroom real quick, I’m ready to go. I’m trying to pee and I actually [expletive] my pants. Like right before I’m about to go in the game, I pooped my pants. I’m like ‘Oh my gosh.’ I know I’m a pitch away from going in the game, so I’m scrambling to clean myself up. I get it cleaned up the best I can, button my pants up, and our bullpen coach Mike Fetters says, ‘Hey, you’re in the game.’ So I’m jogging into the game to pitch with poop in my pants essentially.

It was the most uncomfortable I’ve ever been on the mound. And I actually had a good inning. I had a clean inning, and I walked in the dugout and I was like, ‘Guys, I just [expletive] myself.’ They didn’t believe me, then the bullpen came in and they’re like ‘Oh my God, you had to see this.’”

Bradley’s story contains a great many details — too many, it could be argued. But after listening to the podcast and reading the abundant coverage that followed (baseball writers: we love pooping!), I was struck by what was missing. For all his detail, Bradley never specifically told us when this incident occurred. Sure, he gave us clues. A bunch of clues, even. But he left the “when” of it as a little mystery, and I love mysteries. And yes, I’ll acknowledge I could have just tried to ask him. I’m a professional baseball writer. I could have contacted the Diamondbacks and said, “Hey, get Archie on the phone, will you?” But I didn’t. Despite his candor, it somehow felt overly familiar to ask a stranger when it was exactly that he suffered this (now) public indignity. So I began an investigation of my own; I set out to solve an icky mystery.

First, let’s review what we know. We know this occurred during a home game. We know the hitter up to bat immediately before Bradley entered the game was in a 2-2 count when the nervous pees struck, which suggests another pitcher or pitchers appeared in the inning prior to his outing. The podcast confirms he was wearing white pants. We know that, despite his plight, he threw a “clean inning.” We know all that — and also that he had some amount of poop in his pants. We assume he is a reliable narrator. What choice do we have?

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 6/27/18

12:01
Meg Rowley: Good morning! As you might have guessed, I am not Kiley. We will return to our regularly scheduled programming next week, but for now, a Wednesday Meg chat!

12:01
yojiveself: imagine if you could start MLB all over again.  No history, no records.  How many games a season do you want?  To me, a 100 game season would be perfect.  Start mid-April, WS in late September.  Thoughts?

12:02
Meg Rowley: Dropping all the way down to 100 feels very drastic. Now you might say, hey, that’s because you’re used to baseball as it is, and this is meant to be a question about baseball as it should be.

12:02
Meg Rowley: To which I would say, well yeah, but 100 is too few.

12:02
Meg Rowley: I think something in the 150s allows you to skirt some of the really yucky weather on the front end, but keeps October the same.

12:03
Meg Rowley: There’s something about crisp air during playoff baseball I’d be loathe to do. Also, the sample size is nice.

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FanGraphs Meetup: Denver, Today!

FanGraphs is coming to Denver, and since few things are better than talking about baseball with your friends over a drink, we’ll be hosting a meetup while we’re in town. So come join us Friday, June 22 from 6 to 9 pm at the Wynkoop Brewing Company. We’ll have appetizers for everyone to enjoy. It’s a great chance to meet other baseball fans and chat with a bunch of your favorite FanGraphs writers. And while we won’t be attending the Rockies game that evening, Wynkoop is a convenient walk to the ballpark for those hoping to grab a drink before taking in Colorado’s 6:40 start against the Marlins.

If you plan on joining us, we would appreciate you RSVPing using this handy Google form so that we know how many snacks to order.

We hope to see you there!

Details

Friday, June 22 from 6 to 9 pm
Wynkoop Brewing Company
1634 18th Street

We’ve reserved the upstairs Landing area for our revelry. Please note that this event is for those age 21 and up.

FanGraphs Attendees

David Appelman
Carson Cistulli
Sean Dolinar
Craig Edwards
Jay Jaffe
Eric Longenhagen
Kiley McDaniel
Al Melchior
Nick Pollack
Meg Rowley
Travis Sawchik
Paul Sporer
Jeff Sullivan
Jeff Zimmerman


It’s Time to Talk About the AL Playoff Picture

It might seem a bit premature, but I think it’s time to talk about the American League playoff picture. Even though we’re only in the middle of June, the field might already be rounding into its final form, so we ought to at least entertain the conversation. During the preseason, we thought we had this all figured out; the preseason is when we feel our most clever. And for the most part, things in this sortable table don’t look terribly different than we expected them to before Opening Day.

American League Playoff Odds
Team Preseason
Odds
Current
Odds
Win Div Win WC SOS Pyth.
Record
BaseRuns
Record
Astros 98.8% 100% 98.1% 1.9% 0.491 -5 -2
Indians 96.6% 95.9% 95.4% 0.5% 0.477 -1 -1
Yankees 89.7% 100% 74.8% 25.2% 0.489 +3 +1
Red Sox 84.2% 99.5% 25.2% 74.3% 0.509 +1 +2
Blue Jays 37.1% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.506 0 +2
Twins 28.7% 7.0% 4.4% 2.6% 0.484 -2 0
Angels 27.1% 14.0% 0.1% 13.9% 0.510 -1 0
Mariners 9.4% 74.9% 1.8% 73.0% 0.516 +8 +7
Athletics 9.2% 5.6% 0.0% 5.5% 0.508 +1 +1
Rangers 7.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.504 +1 +2
Orioles 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.523 -4 -3
Rays 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.515 -1 -5
Royals 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.501 0 -2
Tigers 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.506 +2 +1
White Sox 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.505 -2 -6

The Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox are the class of the league, with all three teams projected to win at least 100 games and the first two of those each projected to win 103. The Indians are worse than we thought they would be, but the presence of the Royals, White Sox, Tigers, and even the Twins means their pursuit of another division championship likely won’t be imperiled.

We expected the Indians to win, and it looks like they will. We expected the Yankees and Red Sox to kick the snot out of each other on their way to sterling records, and for one of them to end up a quite overqualified Wild Card teams, and that looks overwhelmingly likely, too. And despite their currently narrow two-game lead on the Mariners, we expected that the Astros would run away with the West. That still looks probable, as well. It all still mostly looks probable. We (or at least the projections) were pretty clever.

Except for one thing, that is — namely, that the Mariners are currently in sole possession of the second Wild Card and that the Mariners are 7.5 games up on the Angels.

This isn’t a post about the Mariners, per se, but it is useful to think about how they got to this point. As Jay Jaffe wrote, they’ve been both ridiculously successful in one-run games (currently 23-10) and ridiculously clutch in high-leverage situations. (Their current 7.17 Clutch Score still leads the AL.) Their bullpen is quite good (fourth in the AL). Mitch Haniger has taken a big step forward, Marco Gonzales a more modest one. James Paxton has a FIP in the twos. Jean Segura would deserve to be an All-Star if shortstop weren’t such a crowded position.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 6/19/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Good morning and welcome to the chat!

12:00
BFreeman123: How does the Boston rotation shake out when Pomeranz back? Thanks

12:01
Meg Rowley: Without any special knowledge, I wouldn’t be surprised if the less effective of him or Steven Wright ended up throwing some relief innings.

12:01
Rockie Dangerfield: Lemme tell you a joke.
“The Rockies’ bullpen.”
Get it?

12:02
Meg Rowley: We can tell the truth about things, be funny, and resist the temptation to be mean for no reason. It just requires us to embrace a higher degree of difficulty in our humor.

12:02
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Why do I feel like the Brewers are headed for a complete dogshit 1-15 type stretch where they completely blow their playoff chances? That offense is either scoring in double digits or 0/1.

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