Coming into the 2010 season, there wasn’t all that much to be excited about as a Jays fan. Although new GM Alex Anthopoulos was ready to take over with a bright future ahead, hopes in Toronto rested mostly in prospects such as Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace. With Roy Halladay and Alex Rios gone, the Jays were looking at a rock bottom season.

But that hasn’t happened at all. Instead, the Jays stand at a surprising five games over .500 in the dangerous territory we call the American League East. Although Toronto’s pitching has been solid, it has been their offense that has shocked everyone around baseball. Let’s take a look at some of those guys who are turning heads.

CF Vernon Wells
2010 wOBA: .396
2009 wOBA: .314
Career wOBA: .346

Oh, Vernon. When the Jays put Alex Rios on waivers last season, most people were pointing at Wells’ massive contract as a worse failure than Rios’. However, like Rios, Wells has bounced back big this year. For Wells it’s been due to his power resurgence; his BABIP of .293 is right around his career norm, but his HR/FB rate of 19.7% is a career high at the moment.

OF Jose Bautista
2010 wOBA: .390
2009 wOBA: .339
Career wOBA: .328

The biggest shocker of them all, Bautista is currently slugging .152 better than last year with 18 homers already on the season. Aside from the pop, he’s also increased his walk numbers, getting on base at a career high rate. Bautista’s .221 BABIP is well below his career mark of .275, but his HR/FB rate of 20.2% is not only a career high but one of the top marks in the major leagues.

SS Alex Gonzalez
2010 wOBA: .349
2009 wOBA: .275
Career wOBA: .298

If Bautista is the biggest shock, Gonzalez is certainly a close second. Gonzalez got his contract with Toronto based mostly on his durability, defense, and rings. However, the man who slugged .355 last year is now at .509, a dramatic increase. Gonzalez, who has already hit five more homers than he did in all of 2009, has been a godsend for the Jays.

LF Fred Lewis
2010 wOBA: .340
2009 wOBA: .327
Career wOBA: .343

While Lewis’ production this year certainly isn’t jaw-dropping, it is nevertheless surprising; Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and FanGraphs Fans all predicted Lewis to underperform his current wOBA. Considering Lewis was also cut in Spring Training and had to find his way to a new team (and divison, and league, and country) right before the season, and that he had a subpar 2009, this has been a nice year for Fred.

C John Buck
2010 wOBA: .337
2009 wOBA: .332
Career wOBA: .307

Poor Royals fans. Despite putting up 0.5 WAR in just 59 games last year, Kansas City decided to go with Jason Kendall for 2010. Toronto has been the benefactor of that mistake, as Buck already hit more homeruns this year than all of 2009. While his numbers aren’t as gaudy as some of the other players, his pop makes him a nice asset at catcher.

With the huge struggles from Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay, and Adam Lind, the Toronto Blue Jays would be in a far worse position were it not for the great seasons being had by some surprising names. I’m not sure if Anthopoulos planned it all to go down this way, but he gets the credit nonetheless, and the Jays find themselves in a decent position with some bright players on the farm.

With all the hooplah surrounding the Mets, one player who usually gets put under the radar is Rod Barajas. This off-season, Omar Minaya avoided the temptation of signing Bengie Molina, a wise move that level-headed fans applauded. He instead signed two veteran catchers, Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, to decent contracts, all the while keeping a plethora of backup options (Josh Thole, Chris Coste, Omir Santos, etc) ready. Thus far, the combination of Barajas and Blanco behind the plate has been solid, racking up 1.6 WAR on the season.

However, in typical Mets fan fashion, many have gotten caught up in Barajas’ homeruns and RBI totals instead of his humble 0.8 WAR. David Lennon at Newsday wrote an article entitled, “Mets would be wise to re-sign Barajas,” and although I can’t see much of it thanks to Newsday’s silly paywall, I can guess the whole thing talks at length about leadership, handling New York, RBI/homers, and managing the pitching staff (i.e. very intangible things). Many Mets fans are in unison with Lennon on the issue, which is all the more upsetting.

There are currently fourteen other catchers in the National League alone with a WAR of at least equal to Barajas’ 0.8. Barajas has certainly exceeded my level of expectations, but those were low to begin with. Rod had an OBP of .258 (!) last season in 125 games, and his mark of .281 this year isn’t much better. However, his .500+ SLG gives him a solid .330 wOBA on the year. Unfortunately, ZiPS only projects him to slug .421 the rest of the way, good for just a .306 wOBA. Even with his career-high power streak this year, Barajas’ wRC+ sits at just 104, meaning that once his fly balls stop leaving the yard at his current rate, he’s doomed for below mediocrity.

So what can the Mets do rather than sign Barajas to an extension after he’s performed decently for three months? They can see see how the rest of the season goes and evaluate things in November. They can let him go and give a chance to Josh Thole, who had the following wOBA projections preseason:

CHONE: .321
ZiPS: .343
Marcel: .315

Although Thole has struggled somewhat in Triple-A, he did perform well in a brief major league appearance in 2009. His defense isn’t great, but neither is Barajas’. Most importantly, he’s cheap and controlled by the team.

However, Thole doesn’t have to be the only option either. The Mets could attempt to buy low on Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta, a very good catcher who’s been displaced by the surging Miguel Olivo. Iannetta put up 5.7 WAR from 2008-09, and ZiPS has him projected for a .344 wOBA for the rest of 2010.

The Mets can sell high on Barajas at the trade deadline and put Thole and Blanco in a true platoon behind the plate. Due to the clubhouse issues and media attention, this one seems very unlikely.

Finally, the Mets can do what they did last season: cut ties with their major league catchers and just wait for something to fall in the off-season, a strategy that usually works especially well with catchers.

Last year, the Mets unnecessarily traded Ramon Castro to the White Sox because they were excited about the play of Omir Santos. You want to know what was said of Santos? He was energetic, handled the pitching staff well, a fan-favorite, could deal with the pressure of New York, and was hitting pretty well (pop, but no walks). Where is Omir Santos today? Hitting .105 for Double-A Binghamton. I’m not saying that Rod Barajas = Omir Santos (Barajas is clearly, clearly better); however, the Mets should just be extremely wary to overreact to a few months of average play from their catcher just because some buzz words have been thrown around. Hopefully Omar is listening.

With the callups of some possible stars in Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, and Jose Tabata, I wanted to take a look at a few guys who, although may have been highly touted, underperformed in the minor leagues relative to their major league track record.

2B Robinson Cano
MiLB: .278/.331/.425
MLB: .312/.345/.490

Back in 2005, the Yankees had had enough with the struggling Tony Womack and decided to shake things up. Lots of pundits and fans were saying Robinson wasn’t ready, and that Cashman/Torre were rushing the kid too quickly. Cano hit pretty well for a rookie at second base (despite his walk rate of just 3.0%). Since then, he’s been one of the better players in baseball.

SS Hanley Ramirez
MiLB: .297/.352/.430
MLB: .314/.385/.526

I often argue with my Red Sox friends over whether or not the Red Sox should take back the Hanley-Beckett deal if offered if they would also have to give up their World Series in 2007. Flags fly forever, but Hanley has hit forever, crushing major league pitching at a rate much better than his minor league line. In his last season before being called up, Hanley hit just .271/.335/.385. Since then, it’s been Cooperstown-worthy stuff.

1B/OF Garrett Jones
MiLB: .258/.312/.450
MLB: .271/.346/.490

Despite being a big guy, the power was never really there for Jones during his minor league career. During his first five years in the minors, his career high in slugging was .423. However, he broke out in 2004 in Double-A, slugging 31 homers. After some more farm time, Jones finally got a shot last season, and has been solid for the Buccos.

CL Joakim Soria
MiLB: 4.05 ERA, 2.43 K:BB
MLB: 2.13 ERA, 3.98 K:BB

The Mexicutioner was snagged by the Royals in 2006 via the Rule V draft and immediately became a force for Kansas City. Despite medicore control and so-so results in the minors, Soria quickly became one of the best closers in the game by utilizing his wicked off-speed stuff (curveball, slider, and changeup).

2B Placido Polanco
MiLB: .279/.317/.344
MLB: .304/.348/.415

When you look at the numbers Polanco put up in the minors, nobody would blame you for thinking that he was destined to be a utility man at best. His lack of patience and power meant he would rely heavily on his BABIP, and he just didn’t ever hit for much average to cancel out his other problems. During his time in the major leagues, the story has changed. Polanco can be relied on to his .300+ each year, and with a decent amount of pop too.

SP Johan Santana
MiLB: 4.78 ERA, 2.69 K:BB
MLB: 3.10 ERA, 3.60 K:BB

Like Soria, Santana was another product of the Rule V draft, with the Astros as the poor suckers who let him go. The Marlins actually took Santana first overall in the V, but a pre-arranged deal had him sent to Minnesota for $50,000. Santana started out as a rocky pitcher in the Twins pen, but since then, well, you know the story.

I love minor league baseball, and we live in an age in which it’s more popular than ever. Although there are some feel good stories in here, there also are some developmental things that aren’t too surprising (i.e. H-Ram developing power). Still, you never know if a major league career can just take off despite so-so minor league numbers, and these guys show why.

As we learned from Moneyball, one needs to find undervalued assets when faced with a finite budget. When looking around baseball, analysts often refer to Billy Beane in Oakland and Andrew Friedman in Tampa Bay as two guys who have succeeded with a limited payroll. I’d like to add one more team to the list that always seems to get overlooked in this aspect: the Florida Marlins. For years the Marlins have stayed relatively competitive with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball, and even with a weak fanbase, have won two World Series despite being around for less than two decades. While we can go back and look at some bargains they got in the late 90’s, I think it’d be interesting to check out some of their latest grabs:

OF Cody Ross
Acquired: May 2006 trade with Cincinnati for cash/PTBNL
2007-10 WAR: 9.2

During the 2006 season, Cody Ross found his way around three National League teams, eventually finding a home in Miami, where he’s been one of the most underrated players in baseball since. For the ’06 season, Ross hit just .227/.293/.431, and although he had some pop, was considered nothing more than a fourth or fifth outfielder. He was not only twenty six years old, but was never considered a top prospect or anyone who would have an impact career. However, Ross has taken off in Florida. His best season came in 2008, where he racked up 3.7 WAR thanks to plus offense and defense in centerfield.

1B/3B Jorge Cantu
Acquired: January 2008 on a minor league contract with invite to Spring Training
2008-10 WAR: 5.4

Cantu might be the most interesting case of them all. He came up for neighboring Tampa Bay as a highly touted slugger, and after putting up a .346 wOBA in fifty games as a rookie in 2004, smacked 28 homers the following year. However, after a dramatic decline from 2006-2007, he found himself without a home going into the 2008 season. The Marlins gave him a chance, and he’s been a staple of their batting order ever since.

2B Dan Uggla
Acquired: December 2005 from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Rule V Draft
2006-10 WAR: 16

This story is definitely the most well-known. Uggla was seen as a career minor leaguer by most teams, including his own, which meant he wasn’t protected by the D’Backs during the Rule V draft leading up to the ’06 season. Despite hitting extremely well in Double-A in 2005, he never earned a promotion even to Triple-A, and as a twenty five year-old was just seen as another guy who mashed minor league pitching but couldn’t handle the big leagues. The All-Star secondbaseman has certainly made geniuses out of the Marlins front office, never having a season with less than 2.4 WAR.

C John Baker
Acquired: March 30 2007 in trade with Oakland for 1B Jason Stokes
2008-10 WAR: 3.2

Baker, who ironically was a central figure in Moneyball, was swapped back and forth between Oakland and Florida via waivers before the Marlins finally held onto him after a 2007 trade. Baker blossomed in 2008, posting a .392 OBP, an excellent number for a guy at a premium position. After a stellar year in 2009, Baker has gotten off to a slow start in 2010 thanks to injury.

C Ronny Paulino
Acquired: March 2009 in trade with San Francisco for P Hector Correa
2009-10 WAR: 2.6

Primarily a backup catcher in Florida, Paulino has stepped up ever since Baker’s injury, and after posting 1.7 WAR in 2009 despite playing less than half of a season, has been even better this year, posting a wRC+ of 110.

CL Leo Nunez
Acquired: October 2008 in trade with Kansas City for current Buffalo Bison 1B Mike Jacobs
2009-10 WAR: As Dean Wormer would say, 0.0

Although Nunez had a so-so 2009 (4.41 xFIP), his 2010 has been phenomenal thus far, as his xFIP stands at 2.90. He could be the Marlins closer for quite some time.

Those are the most notable names, but you can also look to the entire Marlins bullpen over the past few years as a ragtag of journeymen or pickups who excelled when given the chance. The Marlins may not have the biggest budget, but they know a bargain when they see it, and that’s dangerous.

Going into the 2009 season, one player on top of everyone’s “Must Watch” list was Diamondbacks 1B/LF Conor Jackson. Jackson, a former first round pick out of UC-Berkeley (smart guy), had put up a 3.0 WAR season in 2008, hitting .300/.376/.446 while playing plus defense in left field and okay defense at first base. However, he was turning twenty seven years old going into the ’09 season, and was primed to at least repeat his numbers from the previous year.

But then something sad happened. After getting off to an already rough start to the 2009 campaign, Jackson caught a bad case of Valley Fever, which the Mayo Clinic says, “…is highly variable. It can take from six months to a year to fully recover, and fatigue and joint aches can last even longer. The severity of the disease depends on several factors, including your overall health and the number of fungus spores you inhale.” The Valley Fever eventually turned into pneumonia, and Jackson just couldn’t take it anymore:

Jackson said he had a cough, was sore and achy and had been feeling constantly tired.

“By the third inning, it felt like I had played 20 innings with an 80-pound backpack on,” he said. “It was brutal.”

…He said the first signs of sickness came during the team’s first road trip of the season to San Francisco in mid-April. He said the pneumonia hit him during the most-recent homestand, at which point the club placed him on the disabled list.

…”I haven’t lifted a weight, I haven’t run, in three weeks pretty much,” he said. “We haven’t even talked about timetable. One doctor told me, ‘You’re going to be fatigued for the rest of the year.’ The infectious-disease guy said everybody reacts differently, so I don’t know what to expect.”

Jackson would end his season on May 11th, hitting just .182/.264/.253 in 110 plate appearances, good for -1.0 WAR for the season despite playing just thirty games. The Valley Fever did not go away immediately, and it took months for Jackson to finally get over it. The results were damaging; weight loss, muscle atrophy, and rust all set in, and even though Jackson was able to come back for the start of the 2010 season, the results have not been pretty. He’s hitting .242/.336/.333 with just one homer in 148 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of just 82. Jackson also missed time on the DL in late April this year after straining his right hamstring.

Most shockingly for Jackson has been his balls in play. He’s hitting line drives at a staggering rate of 27.6% (!), but has a BABIP of just .270 for the season. Those numbers lead me to believe Jackson’s line drives have been more of the Juan Pierre variety than that of Albert Pujols, as the power numbers still remain staggeringly low.

Jackson still has the possibility of reviving his career, but his natural talent has not been able to supersede his temporary physical problems. Until Jackson’s power numbers come back, his value at first base and left field is extremely limited, and the Diamondbacks have to wonder how much rope they’ll give him before they’re forced to go in a different direction.

The answer is Triple-A Pawtucket. The question is why. The Red Sox have a very interesting reliever on their hands in Robert Manuel, who is still in the minor leagues despite being past the point of being called a “prospect.” This off-season, upon the Sox picking up Manuel off of waivers, I wrote about my general enthusiasm for the move:

Is Manuel the next coming of Papelbon? No. His stuff probably isn’t good enough to make him a lights out force out of the pen in the big leagues. However, as long as he’s able to get strikeouts and avoid walks, Sox fans should be wary to overlook this guy, and instead be anxious to give Theo a nice pat on the back for this one. He deserves it.

I’m starting to take my hand off of Theo’s back pretty quickly. Manuel, a 26-year-old, 6’3″ right-hander who throws a fastball, slider, and changeup, has absolutely dominated in the minor leagues throughout his career. According to MinorLeagueSplits, his career MiLB FIP is 2.88 in 390 innings pitched. Over the past few years, Manuel has pitched 98.2 innings in Triple-A in a few organizations, compiling a 2.28 ERA with a 75:23 K:BB ratio. In Pawtucket this season, he has a 1.16 ERA in 31 innings, along with a 26:7 K:BB ratio.

But most importantly, Manuel could realistically be better than some of the other guys to see the mound for Boston this year. Scott Atchison, Scott Schoeneweis, and Ramon Ramirez have all pitched poorly, while Joe Nelson recently got the call up to Fenway despite a very poor outing with the Rays last season. Manuel could also be used as a bit of an early-inning ROOGY, as he’s struck out 208 and walked just 32 righties in his minor league career, good for a 2.80 FIP. Here are what the prognosticators said before the season:

Marcel: 4.31 FIP
CHONE: 4.30 FIP
ZiPS: 4.80 FIP

Not bad. However, there are legitimate concerns as to Manuel’s potential to be successful in the majors leagues (many scouts see him as a Quad-A reliever). About half of his balls in play during his minor league career have been in the air, including 57.1% this year. He’s been aided by a HR/FB rate of just 3.4%, a very low number. Considering his fastball sits in the mid to high 80s, it’s very possible he could be homer happy in the big leagues while successful in the minors.

Manuel is by no means a panacea for the Red Sox in their journey to climb over the Rays and/or Yankees in 2010. However, he can be a valuable arm in the bullpen, and maybe even more if finally given a chance to succeed in the big leagues. I think it’s just a matter of time before he forces the front office’s hand to give him that shot.

When it comes to righty/lefty matchups, my nerdy senses start tingling. I think it is one of the most fascinating subjects in baseball, mostly because it’s a cool combination of game theory, statistics, and psychology. Although Ryan Howard’s name is in the title, this isn’t really about him (I promise my time at Fangraphs won’t be spent solely on Ryan Howard and philosophy).

As a baseball fan, I watch a lot of games. As a follower of advanced analysis, I know this can be both helpful and hurtful. When it comes to righties and lefties, I sometimes let my gut take over, and to be honest, I feel a little guilty. From watching games, my gut tells me that Ryan Howard stinks against lefties. The numbers back it up. For his career, Howard is hitting .226/.304/.441 against southpaws in 1144 plate appearnces. But a few months ago, the incredibly wise Mitchel Lichtman (MGL) wrote the following:

IOW, how a batter does against RH pitchers informs us on how he will likely do against LH pitchers and vice versa. Why? Because there is not much of a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players yet there is a large spread in overall true hitting talent among ML baseball players. So if we see a large platoon split, like for a player like Howard, it is likely a fluke. If a player does really well versus RH pitchers but terrible against LH pitchers, both the “really well” and the “terrible” numbers are likely fluky and the “truth” is somewhere in between…

…First we’ll estimate his overall true OPS. In his career, it is .966. We’ll regress that and call it .930, which is a typical projection for him. Now we have to take his observed platoon ratio (I like to use ratio – some people use a differential) and regress that. His observed platoon ratio for those 4 years is 1.052/.719, or 1.46. For the average lefty, it is 1.20 and we just don’t see that much variation among players in their true platoon splits. IOW, that 1.46 is likely very (but not completely) flukey. We might regress that 1.46 80% toward the league average of 1.20, to get 1.25. That is Howard’s “true” estimated platoon split.

Now we simply apply that to his overall estimated true OPS of .930 and the fact that he faced 62% RHP. That gives us an OPS of .805 versus LHP and 1.006 versus RHP.

Matt Swartz of Baseball Prospectus also looked at the numbers before the start of the 2009 season and concluded, “…a mixture of an inability to avoid comparing Howard’s skills versus lefties from his skills versus righties, and unwillingness to actually look up the numbers has led the sabermetric community to be just as inaccurate and groupthinking as the mainstream media.”

Maybe I should just stop right there when two really smart guys like Litchman and Swartz are agreeing on an issue. However, my main area of contention is the argument that because Howard is good at hitting righties, it shows he is a good hitter and that his performance versus lefties is a “fluke.” I understand the argument, but what about the possibility that Howard is just bad against lefties and very, very good against righties? From watching games, this seems to be the case. This is what my “baseball mind” is telling me. The issues with resting on that gut feeling are obvious and many, but that doesn’t mean the conclusion is necessarily wrong.

I guess I should also clarify what I mean by “bad.” He’s not 2010 Aramis Ramirez bad against lefties, just more like 2007 Jason Bay bad. His immense success against righties also makes things relative.

Below are Howard’s wRC+ from 2005-2010, going from overall to versus lefties and then versus righties:

2005: 135, 4, 169
2006: 166, 133, 182
2007: 140, 110, 159
2008: 123, 91, 143
2009: 141, 71, 178
2010: 109, 75, 129

Using the splits section, we can also see that the quality of balls hit by Howard against lefties is much worse than against righties (fewer line drives, more infield flies, etc). Am I saying that Howard should be sat versus lefties? No. I also think that MGL is right, that Howard is more likely to be better than his career OPS versus lefties than worse. The question is how much. Howard’s career walk rate against lefties is 9.4%. This year it’s 3.6%. As we discussed the other day, Howard is having a rough year. The question I want to pose to everyone is, how long do we need to wait until we can “tell” that someone is just not very good against lefties? Is this an instance where we need our gut to take over a bit because the sample size needed for this platoon is big enough to take many years to get to? You tell me, because I still haven’t figured this one out.

In looking at whether or not Commissioner Bud Selig should overturn Jim Joyce’s call and award Armando Galarraga a perfect game, I want to take a philosophical approach. Unfortunately, most of the dialogue surrounding the situation has been wrapped in cliche and hyperbole, so I believe thinking about it more logically could help everyone involved.

I’m a utilitarian, which means I belong to a moral philosophy that believes acts should be judged on the amount of utility (or happiness) they bring to people. If you’ve ever taken Philosophy 101 or read any of Mill, you understand my position. So what would a utilitarian have to say about this situation? Well, I think the burden of unhappiness or unrest sits most heavily with the people most closely involved with the situation. This would be Armando Galarraga and his family, Jim Joyce and his family, and the Detroit Tigers organization and fans. For everybody else involved, this will likely just be a news story that fades away and is eventually forgotten about. However, the people directly involved will not forget about this situation (meaning be at mental ease about it) for a long, long time. Without question, the decision to make Galarraga’s start a Perfect Game would bring them great amounts of happiness.

So if Selig’s decision could only bring happiness, where is the issue? Firstly, many people will not be thrilled with the decision, but as I said earlier, their small inconvenience will be outweighed by those intimately involved, along with the many people who will like the decision. Why do many people not like the potential decision? They are worried about the “precedent” it may set. There are other irrational worries out there, but the precedent argument seems to be the one most often put forth by intelligent analysts (such as Keith Law). Baseball columnist Phil Rogers states the case:

If Selig announces that Galarraga does in fact have a perfect game, he’ll also have to make a few other changes too. The St. Louis Cardinals will be awarded the 1985 World Series, which was changed forever by the Don Denkinger call. Milt Pappas will get his perfect game, because everyone knows Bruce Froemming squeezed him. Willie Keeler, Pete Rose or someone else will own the longest hitting streak, as favorable scoring calls helped Joe DiMaggio put together his streak of 56 games in a row.

There’s no precedence for Selig to issue an after-the-fact finding, no matter how badly Joyce would love to be let off the hook.

But this is as silly as a strawman as I have ever seen. Just because someone makes a decision in one specific situation does not mean people down the line need to act only according to the previous decision (or, as Rogers absurdly argues, retroactively change prior events with loosely related circumstances). Tom Boswell hits the nail on the head here:

I think Bud should reverse the call in the best interests of the game. Everybody screams, “But what about the precedent it would set!”

Yeah, what precedent? That the next time an umpire blows the 27th out of a perfect game by two feet (then the pitcher gets the 28th out on the next hitter so that the bad call has no effect on the outcome) the next commssioner will reversethat call, too? Oh, you mean that precedent?

Come on, just do the right thing.

Besides the fact that another situation happening like this one (perfect game blown on safe/out call on last play of the game) is extremely, extremely unlikely, if it does happen again, then change it in the future if you see fit! If not, don’t. Rational actors keep agency in future events. There’s a reason the “slippery slope” is an informal fallacy!

I hope this was at the least a unique perspective on the situation. Considering there will be more utility, and the fears of the relatively inconvenienced fans/sportwriters against it rest mostly on logical fallacies, I believe Bud Selig should rule Galarraga’s start a “Perfect Game” in the best interest of baseball.

With the All-Star voting underway, the National League outfield would look a little interesting if we went solely by WAR going into yesterday’s action:

LF Josh Willingham
CF Andres Torres
RF Jason Heyward

While Willingham has had a solid major league career, and Jason Heyward is the Chosen One, seeing Andres Torres starting in center may be a shock for some people. The truth is that it should be. A fourth round draft pick in 1998, Torres was a known entity only in the minds of the most passionate fans before the 2009 season. By the end of the 2005 campaign, Torres had spent four fragmented seasons in the major leagues with Detroit and Texas. In his only consistent playing time in 2003, he hit .220/.263/.298, a wRC+ of a measly 45, nothing at all worthy of major league playing time. From 2002-2005, Andres contributed -1.0 WAR for his respective teams; needless to say, he was seen as a non-factor within baseball circles.

After the 2005 season, Torres went back to the minors and continued to struggle. In 2006, as a twenty-eight year old in Triple-A Rochester of the Twins organization, he hit .236/.333/.353 while striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. Torres returned to the Tigers organization in 2007, and since then has become a completely different player. After starting the ’07 season in Double-A Erie, Torres earned a promotion to Triple-A by putting up an .844 OPS. Although he posted a .366 wOBA in forty-two games for the Triple-A club, he was promptly released the following year, finding a home with the Cubs for the 2008 season.

At thirty years old in Triple-A, it seemed as though Torres’ peak was as a Quad-A player. However, Torres lit it up that year, hitting .306/.391/.501 while swiping 29 bases in 33 attempts. After playing just a handful of minor league games for the Giants in 2009, Torres got called up to the majors and slugged .533 with a .379 wOBA while playing solid defense, totaling 2.0 WAR in just 75 games. So far in 2010, Torres has had his best year in professional baseball at thirty-two years old, hitting .286/.375/.479, good for 2.0 WAR thanks to a UZR/150 of 42.7 in the outfield.

Although we know that late bloomers are a part of the game, Torres’ story makes his sudden arrival less surprising. From the San Jose Mercury News:

For much of his life, it looked as if Torres would one day be impressing on the track rather than the diamond. He was a high school sprint star in Puerto Rico, excelling in the 100- and 200-meter dashes and the 400 relay. Baseball was an afterthought until a scout handed him a business card during his senior year.

“It wasn’t like I was trying to be a pro,” Torres said. “I was a track guy. I’ve been made into a baseball player.”

Torres went to Miami-Dade Community College, where, by his own admission, he was “just a guy who could run and catch.” Those skills were sharp enough to get the attention of scouts, and he signed with Detroit after being drafted in the fourth round in 1998…

…There was just one problem: Torres still didn’t really know how to hit.

His speed got him to the big leagues with the Tigers in 2002, but it wasn’t until fellow Puerto Ricans Luis Alicea and Carlos Beltran pulled him aside that he realized how much he had left to learn.

“They told me I wasn’t loading with my hands at all, and I had no idea,” Torres said. “I didn’t care about hitting, but when I got called up, I realized there are a lot of things that I needed to do to stay (in the majors).”

A really incredible story, and the Giants have to be thrilled to have gotten the best out of Andres Torres. He probably won’t make the All-Star team, but his value for San Francisco has been above and beyond what anyone would have projected just two years ago.

We want to welcome a new writer to the fold today – Pat Andriola has joined the team, and will be contributing daily in this slot.

Ryan Howard certainly has not produced as Phillies fans would like this year, amassing only 0.2 WAR while the Philadelphia offense has found itself struggling over the last few weeks. However, Howard, who is thirty years old and turning thirty-one this November, is not hitting as a typical “declining slugger” is expected to. Because Howard is a homer-hitting first baseman with a large build, as he declines we should project an increase in strikeouts (K %) and a decrease in power (SLG) and ability to make contact (Contact %), along with more of a reliance on eye (BB %) to maintain offensive value.

Instead, we find ourselves looking at a player who is seemingly attempting to change his game midway through a fantastic career. Here are Ryan Howard’s relevant statistics, along with the difference from last season:

K %: 25.6% (-4.6)
SLG: .454 (-.117)
Contact %: 69.7% (+2.6)
Z-Contact %: 85.6% (+7.3)
BB %: 7.6% (-3.1)

While all of the numbers are surprising, maybe none is as shocking as Howard’s walk numbers for the year. Considering his lack of power, which was predicted by most of the projection systems preseason (although not at this current rate), Ryan should be looking to generate offense via the walk, which we all remember from the David Justice experiment in Moneyball is one skill that sticks for aging players. A drop of 3.1% is huge, and is a good amount less than half of his 2007 rate. We can see below how serious the walk decline has been, with the blue line being the major league average walk rate, and the green line being Howard:

Thanks to a BABIP that’s .10 points above his career average, Howard’s OBP has stayed afloat at .338, although his ISO of .174 is a drastic career low.

We also tend to see aging sluggers swing and miss more often, a result of declining bat speed. However, Howard has actually been making contact more often this season, and his contact in pitches in the zone has seen a significant jump. But most shocking has been Howard’s decrease in strikeouts, which currently sits over 10% less than what it was in 2007. Against lefties, Howard has struck out 32.1% of the time in 2010, compared to a career rate of 39.1% against southpaws.

Nothing is concrete, and sample size issues abound. However, while Ryan Howard’s new strategy may be appealing to those who hate strikeouts, his overall performance has been down. He’s produced a wRC+ of just 108, a full thirty-one points below his career average. With the decrease in power/walks/strikeouts and increase in contact, Howard is looking more like Shane Victorino than his usual self. If Howard is making a conscious adjustment, he may want to revert to his old ways. While the strikeouts and lack of power are a scary thought for an aging slugger, they are typically inevitable (ignoring those aided by illegal substances), and can be mitigated by a solid walk rate. At the least, the Phillies have 125 million reasons to hope to see the old Ryan Howard.