Better in the Bigs
With the callups of some possible stars in Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, and Jose Tabata, I wanted to take a look at a few guys who, although may have been highly touted, underperformed in the minor leagues relative to their major league track record.
2B Robinson Cano
MiLB: .278/.331/.425
MLB: .312/.345/.490
Back in 2005, the Yankees had had enough with the struggling Tony Womack and decided to shake things up. Lots of pundits and fans were saying Robinson wasn’t ready, and that Cashman/Torre were rushing the kid too quickly. Cano hit pretty well for a rookie at second base (despite his walk rate of just 3.0%). Since then, he’s been one of the better players in baseball.
SS Hanley Ramirez
MiLB: .297/.352/.430
MLB: .314/.385/.526
I often argue with my Red Sox friends over whether or not the Red Sox should take back the Hanley-Beckett deal if offered if they would also have to give up their World Series in 2007. Flags fly forever, but Hanley has hit forever, crushing major league pitching at a rate much better than his minor league line. In his last season before being called up, Hanley hit just .271/.335/.385. Since then, it’s been Cooperstown-worthy stuff.
1B/OF Garrett Jones
MiLB: .258/.312/.450
MLB: .271/.346/.490
Despite being a big guy, the power was never really there for Jones during his minor league career. During his first five years in the minors, his career high in slugging was .423. However, he broke out in 2004 in Double-A, slugging 31 homers. After some more farm time, Jones finally got a shot last season, and has been solid for the Buccos.
CL Joakim Soria
MiLB: 4.05 ERA, 2.43 K:BB
MLB: 2.13 ERA, 3.98 K:BB
The Mexicutioner was snagged by the Royals in 2006 via the Rule V draft and immediately became a force for Kansas City. Despite medicore control and so-so results in the minors, Soria quickly became one of the best closers in the game by utilizing his wicked off-speed stuff (curveball, slider, and changeup).
2B Placido Polanco
MiLB: .279/.317/.344
MLB: .304/.348/.415
When you look at the numbers Polanco put up in the minors, nobody would blame you for thinking that he was destined to be a utility man at best. His lack of patience and power meant he would rely heavily on his BABIP, and he just didn’t ever hit for much average to cancel out his other problems. During his time in the major leagues, the story has changed. Polanco can be relied on to his .300+ each year, and with a decent amount of pop too.
SP Johan Santana
MiLB: 4.78 ERA, 2.69 K:BB
MLB: 3.10 ERA, 3.60 K:BB
Like Soria, Santana was another product of the Rule V draft, with the Astros as the poor suckers who let him go. The Marlins actually took Santana first overall in the V, but a pre-arranged deal had him sent to Minnesota for $50,000. Santana started out as a rocky pitcher in the Twins pen, but since then, well, you know the story.
I love minor league baseball, and we live in an age in which it’s more popular than ever. Although there are some feel good stories in here, there also are some developmental things that aren’t too surprising (i.e. H-Ram developing power). Still, you never know if a major league career can just take off despite so-so minor league numbers, and these guys show why.
Pat Andriola is an Analyst at Bloomberg Sports who formerly worked in Major League Baseball's Labor Relations Department. You can contact him at Patrick.Andriola@tufts.edu or follow him on Twitter @tuftspat
Magglio Ordonez is another name to add here. He had an extraordinarily long and less-than-stellar minor league career for someone whose major league career has been as successful and long as his has been:
MiLB: 2622 PA, 269/327/418, 60 HR in 6 years
MLB: 7253 PA, 312/372/512, 285 HR in 14 years
Ive always wondered who was on the Astros 40 man roster when they left Santana unprotected. Is there any place to look at that?
Ive never blamed them for losing him mainly because he was not major league ready, and only a foolish team would have kept him in the bigs all year, or, as the Astros found out, a 90+ loss team with nothing to lose.
but the Astros wouldn’t have had to keep him in the majors all year, they just had to put him on their 40 man.
not saying they should or shouldn’t have done that, but only the drafting team has to keep him on the roster all year.
Right, but without knowing who they did protect, I can sleep at night. If I ever saw the 40 man from that year Im sure I would see several 30+ year old AAA guys being kept for depth, and that would make me weep.
Though who knows if the Astros would have developed him into an ace. Ive always heard that the Twins sent him to AAA in 2002 to work on his changeup. It isnt until that AAA stint that his K/9 numbers became truly dominant.
The Astros’ 1999 roster and 2000 roster offer no indication they had the 40 man stocked with crucial prospects and talent and just ran out of room for Santana.
But Santana’s 1999 minors season in Single A Michigan (160.1 IP, 14 HR, 55 BB, 150 K, ~3.49 FIP) offered no indication that he’d have been swiped in the Rule 5 Draft that season.
It’s more of a case of a team surprisingly picking a guy off the radar in the Rule 5 Draft than a case of the Astros not protecting a prize talent. After three mediocre and meandering seasons between rookie ball and full season A ball, Johan offered no indication to the Astros he was a prize talent… and no indication that a team would go out of their way to swipe him and put him on an MLB roster.
Martin Prado I believe is another one of these guys. I don’t have time right now to look up his milb vs mlb numbers but I’m pretty sure its significant.. Anyone wanna help me out with the numbers?
Minor league line of .300/.353/.393
Major league line of .311/.362/.450
Casey McGehee comes to mind, also.
Casey McGehee should be the captain of this team
Denard Span:
MiLB: 2,388 PA, .287/.357/.358
MLB: 1,370 PA, .299/.382/.410
Ricky Romero. Drafted 6th overall, showed flashes in the minors but overall was pretty unimpressive. He exploded on the scene last year and hasn’t looked back.
Milb: 4.42 ERA, 430.0 IP, 336 K , 1.474 WHIP
MLB: 3.90 ERA, 263.1 IP, 227K, 1.416 WHIP
2010: 3.06 ERA, 85.1 IP, 86 K, 1.195 WHIP
Pujols!
Pujols really doesn’t have much of a minor league sample size.
Soria basically has zero minor league track record, only 16 2/3 innings. It’s virtually impossible to determine that his control was mediocre and results so-so based on that. In some ways, though, the small sample size makes his success even more surprising.
I see now that you are including Soria’s numbers from the Mexican leagues, which really shouldn’t be considered without translating them. The park factors there are so extreme that the numbers should be stated as equivalents, rather than raw figures.
Mike Leake: 0 K in MiLB, 52 K in MLB.
I think you can put Pablo Sandoval on that list too.
MiLB: .303/.342/.445/.787
MLB: .321/.369/.512/.881
Basically, I think the common denominator is that their power didn’t kick in until late in their minor league career, then blossomed in the majors.
Nice article.
The Mexicutioner. Now *THAT* friends is a nickname. No I-Rod or U-Ball cover-your-eyes awfulness.
According to a test report released by MLB on balls used in 2000 and 2001, minor league balls made in China were made to different specs than MLB balls made in Costa Rica. In the tests, the minor league balls travelled 8 ft less in the 400 ft test. If this is still true, it may affect some of the projections out there. The higher COR would also help the SOB and result in more base hits, although better fielding might negate some of that.
The report is floating around on the internet. I believe Alan Nathans baseball physics site had a copy.
Other things like better lighting, different strike zone (smaller?), more frequent ball changes (whiter) may play a role for hitters. Also, hitters do not mature power wise until age 28 +/-2 yrs, so taken together, really not surprising.