Brad Lidge didn’t top 90 on the radar gun Monday.

Sure, yesterday was a big first step for the 34-year-old reliever. The first appearance of the year — especially when it happens this late in a season — is an important moment for any pitcher who’s recovered from an injury. But, if the muted radar-gun readings are to believed, the outing was perhaps just one point on the long highway back to full strength — at best. At worst, he might find that his new fastball velocity will limit him to the side roads of success. That is, unless he can be legendary with his slider.

Read the rest of this entry »

“Even the smallest person can change the course of the future.” J.R.R. Tolkien

By most accounts, Jose Altuve did not have the most impressive debut for the Houston Astros on Wednesday. The 21-year-old second baseman stepped into the void left by Jeff Keppinger’s move to San Francisco and… well, he didn’t fill that void. Aggressive in each of his at-bats, he went one for five with a strikeout. The fact that he was in the major leagues at all was a bit of an upset, however: Altuve is only five foot seven, and perhaps generously listed as such.

With the Astros not headed to the post season and looking to see what they have for the future, Altuve is in line for at least 200 plate appearances the rest of the way. The team is likely to give him enough leash to finish the year no matter how he fares. Only 22 middle infielders that were his height or shorter have ever accomplished that feat in their first year. But how did those comp players fare at the plate? And how did those numbers compare to the general middle infield population? That might help us manage our expectations for the diminutive one.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s trade rumor season. It’s time for fans of contenders to lust after the best players on lesser teams. The airways of AM radio are already full of trade ideas, many of them ridiculous. Their most valuable player for your least valuable prospects is no way to build a trade, and those rumors are easy to dismiss.

The problem is, even if we set the filter higher, and listen only to rumors that come from reputable sources and concern acquirable names, we are still going to hear a decent amount of hogwash. Let’s just take a couple tasty morsels and examine why the rumored swap makes little sense for one team in the dance. Even a real rumor from a real source can be a real silly idea.

Read the rest of this entry »

And I’ve been putting out fire / With gasoline – David Bowie, Cat People

If Felipe Paulino qualified for the ERA title, his 95.1 MPH fastball velocity would rank second in all of baseball among starters. Felipe Paulino’s 95.1 MPH fastball might be what stands between him and future success.

Paulino has long been a head-scratcher. His career ERA (5.48) matches neither his career FIP (4.27) nor xFIP (4.03), and once you delve into the components, he doesn’t become any easier to understand. He’s struck out over eight batters per nine on the strength of an above-average swinging strike rate. He’s walked batters at a slightly-above average rate, but he’s also managed an average ground-ball rate. And then there’s the gas he pumps out of his right arm.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday, Jordan Zimmermann continued his excellent season with six and a third shutout innings at home against the Rockies. He struck out six, walked none, and it was the 17th time in his 18 starts that he walked fewer than two batters. Though he doesn’t have an above-average whiff rate or strikeout rate, his excellent control has proven that he should remain a good major league starter for the forseeable future.

Or, at least for another seven starts or so this year. If Bill Ladson’s reporting is correct, the team will be limiting the 25-year-old right-hander to 160 innings this year. Though the pitcher hasn’t mentioned any health issues, the Nationals would like to be cautious and will make Zimmermann the fifth starter so they can skip the occasional start and limit the innings. After all, he’s still coming off Tommy John surgery and hasn’t ever pitched more than 134 innings combined in one calendar year.

But, as you might have noticed from the titular hint, this is not a post about Jordan Zimmermann and innings limits. Instead, it’s about some comments that Nationals manager Davey Johnson made about the plan to limit the innings.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Society of American Baseball Research is in the midst of their 41st gathering and by all accounts it has been an excellent exercise of baseball thought. FanGraphs presented a panel at the conference on Thursday night, and this totally unbiased opinion had the night at around the “pretty sweet” level.

Coming together on the first squaretable were Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts (or “the first stathead to induct someone into the Hall of Fame” as moderator Jonah Keri put it), Sam Miller of the Orange County Register, Eric Stephen of True Blue LA and Jon Weisman of Dodger Talk. Because these men are talented wordsmiths (and all really great guys, Jonah assures us), we won’t waste any more words here. Bask, instead, in the glory of direct quotes.

“The Angels are a great mystery. How they’ve managed to win despite their run differentials is a mystery. How they’ve won despite Jeff Mathis is a mystery.” – Sam Miller
“You’ve done a lot of Jeff Mathis research – ” Jonah Keri
“Yes, I have done a lot of research and I’ve found.. he’s not a good hitter.” – Miller

Read the rest of this entry »

Some players make their name for prodigious power and hit home runs in five consecutive games like Paul Konerko. Other players are known more for their feet and steal bags in four straight like Juan Pierre did earlier this year.

But, among these great luminaries of our time, there is one White Sox player who threatens to be the best ever at what he does: Carlos Quentin. That’s right, in more than 2,200 plate appearances, Quentin is already threatening the top of a certain leaderboard.

Read the rest of this entry »

Nothing is set in stone, but Ike Davis has some torn cartilage and a bone bruise in his ankle that is not healing. He’ll face some more tests and try to run in three weeks, but if he can’t, he’ll be facing season-ending surgery. It’s possible that season-ending surgery will be of the bone-chilling microfracture variety. Let’s pause for a second until the cacophony of “snakebit” and “woe is us” coming from Queens dies down.

There, that’s better. It’s upsetting though, of course. And the one of the main complaints may have some merit. With this story so familiar in recent years, it does seem merited to wonder if the Mets medical staff is doing their jobs correctly. You could take the words “Ike Davis” out of this situation and slide in “Carlos Beltran” and only the joint in question would be any different.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Rockies have activated Dexter Fowler from his recent rehab assignment and demoted him to Triple-A to work on his strikeouts. Haven’t we heard this all before? Recently we’ve seen Ian Stewart and Chris Iannetta struggle with the same issues and get the same treatment. At some point, there has to be some exploration into the culpability of the team itself. Is there a chance the Rockies have brought this on themselves somehow?

First, let’s establish if there is a pattern. At the very least, we know that the team has had three young players struggle with strikeouts in the major leagues. Fowler’s lifetime strikeout rate is 26.3%, Stewart’s is 32.3% and Iannetta’s 27.3%. All three have had trouble staying with the big league club — or at least they’ve all been sent down after showing decent performances in the major leagues. All three have achieved wRC+ numbers at least 100 or more, all three whiffed a little too much thereafter, and all three lost their jobs. Only Iannetta so far has retaken his job. 

Read the rest of this entry »

After yesterday’s seven-run, four-inning fiasco against the Reds, Chad Billingsley is sporting some ugly numbers. His current 4.65 ERA is the worst that number has been at this point in the season. Last year’s 4.34 ERA on June 15th was his second-worst, though, and something has been amiss in his repertoire since as early as 2009. As the doubles kept falling in on Wednesday, the twitter questions began pouring in: “What’s wrong with Chad Billingsley?”

The easy answer is nothing. His 8.09 K/9 is basically the same as his career number (8.18). So is his 3.84 BB/9 (3.86 career). His fastball velocity is still right around 91-92, and he’s still using the same pitching mix as ever. This could just be his ongoing below-average control working hand-in-hand with his career-worst BABIP (.336). It could.

Watching yesterday’s game, you can get that BABIP feeling. In the second inning, Brandon Phillips hit a dink that was a hair away from an out. Fred Lewis‘ double later that same inning was a hair fair. In the third inning, Edgar Renteria slapped a single into right field that wasn’t lined with authority. Jonny Gomes broke his bat on a flare single that prompted Vin Scully to exclaim that he’d “be happy with that.”

Then again, there were some moments that were all poor performance. The Scott Rolen double that plated the first run of the day was down-the-middle belt-high. A couple ball fours were way out of the strike zone. He walked in a run. He hit 94 on the gun a few times… on balls. It wasn’t a good performance waylaid by the bouncing ball. It was a mediocre performance that was augmented by some poor luck.

Scanning his pitching mix, it seems that Bills is using his cutter and curveball less and using his changeup more, and that doesn’t seem optimal. By pitch-type linear weights, his cutter and curveball are by far his best pitches. And yet his curveball usage is at his second-lowest level, and the pitch itself is at its slowest. Perhaps there’s something to this. Per Dave Allen, he only used the pitch eight times last night, in 88 pitches, which is far below his 18.4% career usage. Ryan Hanigan’s two-run single was on a curveball. The pitch broke well enough, but Hanigan seemed ready for it. There might be something off with his off-speed pitches: Billingsley only managed six swinging strikes on Wednesday, and all of them were on fastballs. Perhaps a Pitch F/x centered approach could find something wrong with his curve, even if the pitch is still a positive by linear weights. It doesn’t seem quite right.

Since 2009, Billingsley has the fifth-worst ERA-FIP difference among qualified starters. Ricky Nolasco and Jason Hammel sit one-two in that category. Somehow, this is a fitting group for Billingsley to be in. In recent years, the overall results have not matched up with the outcomes of his individual at-bats. As long as his curveball is okay, though, Billingsley should right ship again. Then again, with Clayton Kershaw in town, he’ll never reach top billing again in Los Angeles.