The Rockies and Indians finalized a deal Saturday night that sent ace Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland in exchange for prospects Alex White, Joe Gardner, Matt McBride and Drew Pomeranz. The rumors swirling around Jimenez were strange from the start, since a team in the Rockies position usually looks to acquire pitchers of that ilk rather than deal them away. However, after learning of the exact return package and assessing the state of the Rockies organization, dealing away Jimenez made more sense than it originally seemed, and might benefit the team more over the next few years.

In Jimenez, the Rockies had a very valuable trade chip if he was ever to be made available. He tallied about 4.5 WAR in 2008, and then sat right around 6 WAR in both 2009 and 2010. Cost-controlled pitchers with that type of resume just aren’t generally made available, since those are the pitchers teams try to build around, not without. Jimenez is currently signed to a four-year, $10 million deal that expires in 2012, with club options for $3.75 million in 2013 and $8 million the very next season. By virtue of his contract, however, he can void the 2014 option if traded.

In spite of the cost control, if a great deal of the budget is already committed and the top prospects within the system — who were going to be relied upon to contribute in the major league rotation before 2013-14 — weren’t developing up to expectations, then there isn’t a whole lot to actually build with. By trading away Jimenez, the Rockies basically admitted one of two things, if not both:

1) They were bearish on Jimenez’ ability to ever reach that 5+ WAR area again
2) They have soured on farmhands like Christian Friedrich and Tyler Matzek, who haven’t developed the way the organization envisioned

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The Nationals made a pair of moves Saturday, sending utility-man Jerry Hairston Jr to the Brewers and starting pitcher Jason Marquis to the Diamondbacks. Both were marginal moves that weren’t all that exciting, but the Nats turned two players who didn’t factor into their plans into prospects who might. In exchange for Hairston, the Brewers sent back outfielder Erik Komatsu. For Marquis, the Diamondbacks traded away shortstop Zach Walters. Neither prospect is what we might label “can’t-miss” but both have the upside to help the Nationals as their rebuilding blossoms into contention.

Hairston signed a one year, $2 million deal in the offseason with the Nats, leading some to question why a team in their position even needed someone like him. Well, this is why. As the trade deadline approaches, some fringe contender is going to need middle infield help, either to replace a failed starter or to bide time due to an injury, and will make a trade for a player of that ilk. Hairston accomplishes both of those goals for the Brewers, who are not only dealing with the offensive impotence of Casey McGehee and Yuniesky Betancourt, but also injuries to Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez.

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The Astros finalized a deal Friday night sending all-star outfielder Hunter Pence to the Phillies, along with $1 million in cash, for RHP Jarred Cosart, 1B/OF Jonathan Singleton, and two players to be named later. One of the PTBNLs turned out to be Josh Zeid, a reliever from Double-A Reading, while the other isn’t considered to be a major prospect per Ken Rosenthal, who broke the story.

The Astros didn’t have to deal Pence right now since he is under team control for two more years. However, his value has never been greater, since he can impact three playoff races. Most available players are half-year rentals or are under contract or control for one more season. Pence was also about to get fairly expensive for the Astros, who, as a rebuilding team did not need to carry a $12-15 mm player that didn’t help accomplish their goals. Pence might have been the face of the Astros franchise, but that was more indicative of the status of the organization than anything specific to his set of skills.

Though he isn’t truly a differencemaker, or an offensive savior for any interested team, the perception of his abilities around the league likely exceeds his actual production. Combine these ideas and the Astros should have been able to extract a great return for a good, not great, player. In getting Cosart and Singleton, they took on some risk (Cosart’s durability, Singleton’s lack of position), but there is a very good chance that they acquired a package equally as good as the return on Roy Halladay.

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The rumor mill is spinning with the trade deadline a mere five days away as teams amp up their approach to accomplish their goals. On Monday, we took a look at ten teams who could make moves this week, but who don’t really have a pressing need to act. Some teams, like the Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees, are going to make the playoffs, and any moves they make this week will be to improve a minor deficiency. Others, like the Blue Jays and Rockies, don’t have much to sell and aren’t in the position to buy either. Yesterday, the focus shifted to teams who could benefit from making moves, either to get back into the race like White Sox, or to unload valuable assets like the Padres and Orioles.

Today ends the series by examining the ten teams who really need to make or field offers this week for different reasons. Each member of the group has a pressing need to transact this week in order to accomplish goals for this season, next, or both.

#10 – Tampa Bay Rays
Despite squashing rumors of James Shields potentially being available, the Rays have one of the most attractive deadline pieces in B.J. Upton. Though his offense has suffered quite a bit since 2007-08, the elder Upton brother is still a 3+ WAR player capable of hitting 15-20 homers while stealing 40 bases. Add in decent defense in center field and it becomes easy to see why many teams are coveting him. The Nationals are looking to acquire a long-term solution in center field and could make a strong push, though the Braves have also been linked to him.

Upton reaches free agency after the 2012 season, so with a year and two months left under team control, now is the right time to move him. With Desmond Jennings already promoted to the majors, Upton has been made expendable, and if the end solution involves trading him, it’s better to do so when he could impact two playoff races.

Kyle Farnsworth tends to change teams around this time every season, and his stellar numbers so far — 1.99 ERA, 2.69 SIERA, 4.0 K/BB could have plenty of teams calling. The Rangers could use relief help, as could the Cardinals and Tigers. The Rays could also look to capitalize on the potentially fluky success of Casey Kotchman, who will be a free agent after the season. His .388/.450 OBP/SLG would be mighty attractive to a few teams.

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Teams approach the trade deadline in different fashions based on their financial outlook and position in the playoff picture. Based on the varying degrees of needs for both buyers and sellers I ranked all of the major league teams on how important it is for them to act before the July 31 trade deadline. Some teams need to add a significant piece, while others need to extract value from their major league assets. For serious contenders, success in the postseason was considered on top of the likelihood they make the playoffs.

Yesterday, we looked at the ten teams with the least pressing need to make a move. From #30-#21, the order went: Red Sox, Phillies, Rockies, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners, Marlins, Yankees, Nationals, Braves. Today’s group starts with teams that may benefit from a move but who don’t absolutely need to be active this week, to those who should be on the phone rather frequently.

#20 – Minnesota Twins
Though they have rebounded quite a bit from a dreadful start, making up seven games in the AL Central over two months will be difficult. Their biggest trade chips are Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Jim Thome, Denard Span and Scott Baker, but only Span has been mentioned in recent rumors.

He is also probably considered the bronze trophy to teams that miss out on Michael Bourn and BJ Upton. Kubel will be a free agent at the end of the year and the Twins could probably get a better return on compensatory picks. The Twins would have to pay virtually all of Cuddyer’s remaining money to get anything of value in return, and despite a losing season, Jim Thome’s quest for 600 HR will likely keep him in Minneapolis until the waiver wire period. They have some interesting pieces that may have been valued more in trades earlier in the season, but not so much right now.

Then again, given the thin nature of the starting pitchers on the market, Scott Baker would vault toward the top of that list if made available.

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The trade deadline will pass at 4:00 PM EST on Sunday July 31, giving teams a week to make deals before having to resort to the waiver wire.

Clubs approach the deadline differently based on goals relative to their current position in the playoff picture and their financial outlook. Playoff locks will look to improve a minor roster deficiency, while teams on the fringe will try to plug a major hole to shed their quasi-contender status. Some teams might try to unload a bad contract, even if they have to pay a large portion of the remaining salary. Teams clearly out of the race may look to trade away their valuable major league assets for prospects in the hope of contending in the future.

Despite the varying approaches, each team has a certain level of need to get things done. To that end, I decided to rank the teams in order of their levels of necessity as a makeshift primer of what can be expected as the deadline draws nearer.

The rankings are based on the goals mentioned above but don’t follow a specific formula. Not every team at the top is a fringe contender in a tight race, and the bottom third isn’t dominated by teams out of the playoff picture. The cellar-dwelling Astros, for instance, have as pressing a need to make moves this week as the Cardinals, who are tied in their division. Their respective spots in the rankings reflect the similar needs.

For the serious contenders, success in the playoffs did come into play to an extent, though it was definitely balanced with the likelihood they make the playoffs to begin with. The list is presented in order from least pressing to most pressing need to make moves this week, and our first group features as many contenders as non-contenders.

#30 – Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are way too strong to miss the playoffs. In fact, they might be the one contender capable of dealing away pieces based on their depth. If Jed Lowrie were healthy, the Sox could deal Marco Scutaro to a team like the Diamondbacks, who desperately need a shortstop. Scutaro is unlikely to be moved, but if any team could unload an everyday position player and not miss a beat, it’s the Red Sox. Word is they might be looking to acquire a backup outfielder and a 5th starter, but their odds of making the playoffs and winning the world series don’t hinge on either move.

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Few baseball terms are misused as frequently as ‘consistency’ and ‘volatility’. Much like some of the more arcane statistics that have fallen by the wayside — looking at you, W/L records and batting average — the terms are often conflated with overall performance. We thought they told us more about a player than they actually did. Pitchers perceived to be more consistent are often deemed to be more valuable than their volatile counterparts, as long as their numbers aren’t drastically different. While that perception might make sense from a logical standpoint it fails to hold up under the lens of quantification.

Consistency might keep fans and managers from reaching for the Tums jar, but it should not be used as anything other than anecdotal. It certainly should not be used as a performance marker. Why? Well, because consistency itself is inconsistent.

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Derek Lowe hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $60 million contract so far, but his steady contributions have been valuable to a deep Braves rotation.

Lowe is one of the more predictably effective pitchers. His walk and strikeout rates tend to hover around the league average, while he doesn’t allow many home runs and induces grounders at a phenomenal rate. From 2007 through this season, Lowe’s 60% groundball rate ranks second in the majors to teammate Tim Hudson’s 61.5%.

Despite being 38 years old and having about $21 million remaining on his contract through 2012, Lowe is reportedly on a couple of contending teams’ radars. The idea of Atlanta trading Lowe while itself being a legitimate playoff contender is interesting. Rare are the times when arguably the best starting pitcher available comes from a team thick in the playoff hunt. But for a team deep with starting pitching, a potential deal also hits on the notion of trading from depth and maximizing returns to fix deficiencies elsewhere.

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In discussing Thursday how Jose Bautista has been, without question, the best and most valuable player in the American League this year, the topic of where his first “half” ranks historically was raised. Bautista played 84 games through the break and tallied 6.6 wins above replacement. Last year, he finished with 6.9 WAR in an excellent breakout campaign. He essentially matched his production from a year ago in half of a season.

Nobody else is even close to him this season either — it would actually take the combined WAR totals of Adrian Gonzalez and Jay Bruce, an MVP candidate and an All-Star, to match his singular productivity. But where does his 6.6 WAR total through the first half of the season rank?

According to our splits data and the yeoman work of David Appelman, Bautista’s 6.6 WAR is the second-highest total since the 1974 season. That was the first year in the sample given the full availability of detailed event information on a game-by-game basis. Babe Ruth produced insane totals in 1920 (14.1), 1921 (14.4), 1923 (15.4) and 1927 (13.2) but we don’t have the capability of determining his totals through the same period.

In any event, here are the top four WAR totals through July 10 in a given year from 1974-2011:

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The baseball season still has two and a half months left of games to be played, but the bifurcation around the All Star Game often results in award discussions. The discussions tend to grow contentious when one player clearly stands out amongst the crop of candidates, but is passed over in lieu of a player with a more fitting narrative.

Right now, Jose Bautista is the most valuable player in the American League, not Adrian Gonzalez.

Bautista boasts a .334/.468/.702 line, and a gaudy .487 wOBA. He has launched 31 home runs in 84 games, and is on pace to hit right around 50 by the end of the season. He is walking in almost 20 percent of his plate appearances and has actually improved his strikeout rate. With average defense and plus-baserunning, it becomes difficult to point out any flaws in his game. Last year was clearly his breakout season, as he tallied 6.9 wins above replacement. In slightly over half of a season this year he has already produced 6.6 WAR, and very well may turn in one of the best seasons in the history of baseball.

Gonzalez is having a fantastic season, but one very clearly south of Bautista. The Red Sox first baseman has a higher batting average at .354, and a better fielding mark (albeit at an easier position), and that’s about it. His on-base percentage is 54 points lower. His .591 slugging percentage is 111 points lower. Put everything together and Gonzalez has a .429 wOBA, which would lead the league if not for the fact that Bautista’s mark is almost 60 points higher. Gonzalez is the best player in the American League outside of the Jose Bautista division, but there is a clear line of demarcation between he and Bautista.

Why are so many touting Gonzalez as the MVP of the first half? The arguments tend to boil down to the following areas: his quest for the batting title, the high RBI total, clutch performance, and the performance of the Red Sox as a team.

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