Author Archive

Triple Slash Line Anomalies

Statistical anomalies in baseball are fun to monitor. I stumbled across one this morning while checking to see how Bobby Abreu had fared this season. In 120 plate appearances, Abreu is slashing .271/.417/.375. The season is still young, but out-OBPing a slugging percentage after 80-100 PAs is strange to the eye. Unorthodox slash lines like Abreu’s stick out for their rarity and invite the questions of why and often they occur.

By analyzing the three rates in the “slash” fashion, fans and analysts have come to expect each successive rate to exceed its predecessor. Outlying that norm is difficult given the inputs fueling the rates. Even Willie Bloomquist can luck himself into an extra-base hit.

It’s extremely rare to post a batting average higher than an OBP, as it would entail never walking or getting hit by a pitch, but recording a few sacrifice flies. And players infrequently post OBPs in excess of their SLG while simultaneously having a decent season. More commonly, these players would fail to record many, or any, extra base hits. It makes more sense to see Reid Brignac’s .212/.257/.212 than Abreu’s line.

But Abreu’s wOBA is currently .365, meaning he is having a solid season at the plate in spite of his slash line cosmetics. There are currently six qualifying players with a wOBA of .325 or higher who boast unorthodox slash lines.

Read the rest of this entry »


Iannetta Battles the BABIP Gods

Chris Iannetta can’t catch a break.

First, the Rockies’ catcher had to compete for a starting spot in 2009 despite producing a .391 wOBA the year before. Since being named the starter, his supposed failure to record hits over the last couple of seasons has that status being called into question. Iannetta is one of the game’s most patient hitters, but the 28-year-old frequently strikes out, and his lack of success with balls in play has led to some truly wacky slash lines.

The latter two components of his 2009 slash line were solid at .344/.460, but a .228 batting average fueled by an ugly .245 BABIP dropped his overall production. Last season the trend continued, albeit with poorer results on balls in play: Iannetta hit .197/.318/.383, with a .212 BABIP in 223 plate appearances. Through 67 plate appearances this season the situation remains the same. Iannetta is hitting a strange, yet impressive, .163/.388/.388. Remove the batting average, and his numbers are solid for a starting catcher.

Regardless of his high on-base marks, we have to question why Iannetta has struggled in the BABIP department, and then research whether similar-profile players can improve in that area.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Non-Shutout No-Hitter

Anibal Sanchez came close to throwing his second career no-hitter Friday night against the Rockies. He would have become just the 29th pitcher to hold a team hitless on multiple occasions. Before Dexter Fowler led off the top of the ninth inning with a single to right — slightly out of second baseman Omar Infante’s reach — Sanchez had walked three batters and allowed a run without surrendering a hit.  After a double play wiped Fowler away and Carlos Gonzalez grounded out, Sanchez had pitched a one-hit, one-run game with an 89 game score.

The concept of throwing a no-hitter while allowing a run piqued my interest as it feels counterintuitive. I immediately correlate no-hitters with shutouts, fair or not, and anything against that grain feels strange. A no-hitter is certainly a remarkable feat, but the wiggle room allowed for walks and runs can strip away some of its luster. Would you rather have a one-hit shutout or a one-run no-hitter? Or how about a one-hit shutout with no walks issued or a no-hitter with seven walks?

These are the types of inane questions I ask myself during games, but given Sanchez’s almost-accomplishment, I questioned how many of the no-hitters thrown in baseball history involved the hitless team scoring one or more runs.

Read the rest of this entry »


Will Brandon Wood Figure Things Out?

The Angels designated Brandon Wood for assignment earlier this week. He will latch on elsewhere given his former status as a top-tier prospect, but whether the 26-year old infielder can translate minor league raking into big league success remains to be seen.

Many expected the world from Wood given his gaudy minor league numbers and his ability to ably handle the shortstop position. In five Triple-A seasons — and 1,437 plate appearances — Wood has hit .283/.350/.536. Even at a fraction of that slash line he would theoretically become one of the top offensive shortstops in the majors. However, his minor league numbers can be viewed two different ways.

On one hand, a slash line like that at the highest level of minor league play merits a legitimate shot in the majors. Not a week here or a month there, spread over several seasons, but a full and uninterrupted season. On the other hand, his struggles in limited major league action — a .168/.197/.259 line in 494 plate appearances — should not have been surprising given the frequency at which he struck out.

Read the rest of this entry »


Addressing the James Loney Situation

James Loney isn’t good enough to be a big-league starter.

In 486 plate appearances from 2006-07, Loney hit .321/.372/.543 and took the league by storm. At just 23 years of age, his future seemed bright. He boasted a sweet left-handed swing, smart baserunning ability, and smooth glovework.

He has since spent 1,951 plate appearances slashing .279/.341/.409 — a sub-replacement level line for the position — with an average UZR. He hasn’t shown any signs of improving or turning the corner. He slugged below .400 in each of the last two seasons. His ability to reach base has sputtered in spite of league average BABIP rates. His defense has been decent, but underwhelming, which has exacerbated the offensive woes.

Loney is now 27 years old and clearly lacks the requisite skills for a regular starting role.

Read the rest of this entry »


Stop Toying With Emaus’ Playing Time

Small sample sizes kill — player development, that is.

Brad Emaus was supposed to be the man at second base for the New York Mets this year. At least that’s what any reasonable person could have anticipated after a Spring Training in which the team cut ties with Luis Castillo, sent Justin Turner to the minor leagues, and slapped the utility tag on Daniel Murphy. Emaus profiled well, as Joe Pawlikowski noted, comparing nicely to fellow former Rule 5 pick Dan Uggla. For every reason imaginable, it was easy to see why Emaus was the popular in-house candidate: a 25-year-old, cost-controlled player with potential seemed exactly what the Mets needed to get back on track.

But Emaus was removed as the everyday starter after only six games. And he’s started half of the last eight. It’s pretty easy to see why — he’s posted an anemic 162/.262/.162 in 42 PA — but is it the right decision, based on such a limited number of plate appearances?

Read the rest of this entry »


Roster Doctor: Fixing the Mets

Building a roster is tough. Rebuilding one is even tougher. Not only does a team need to adhere to a strict game plan in acquiring the right mix of talent at both the major and minor league levels, but it must also resist the urge to break away from a strategy if the returns are not immediately satisfactory. Sometimes multiple roster turnovers are needed before a competitive team emerges. I bring this up because the Mets currently find themselves in a strange situation, the gray area between competing and rebuilding.

Their roster was originally constructed with a win-now mentality. But a slew of serious injuries and the regression associated with various players aging kept them from seriously competing in years past. These same factors have also rendered them unlikely to battle for a playoff berth this season. The extremely high cost of several players, acquired under previous management, mixed with the financial troubles of ownership has made budgeting a serious consideration. The Mets simply cannot spend like they used to.

Without a dynamite farm system, and with high-priced players on the books, it could be particularly difficult for the team to get where it needs to be, even with a solid front office featuring Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta.  How can the Mets right the proverbial ship? Here is a brief overview of do’s and dont’s that could help vault the team back to the top of the competitive spectrum.

Read the rest of this entry »


Clint Hurdle’s Excellent Decision

The Pirates downed the Rockies in 14 innings on Friday thanks to a game-winning double off the bat of Jose Tabata. But the real hero of the game was manager Clint Hurdle, whose strategic decision to send Andrew McCutchen to the on-deck circle as opposed to relief pitcher Garrett Olson likely confused Jim Tracy into pitching to Tabata in the first place.

The Pirates bench was empty and, due to a double-switch made earlier in the game, the pitcher’s spot was due up second in the order, behind Tabata and before McCutchen. After Franklin Morales walked Josh Rodriguez with two outs in the 14th frame of a game knotted at three runs each, Tabata stepped into the batters box.

Knowing that the next scheduled hitter was a reliever, and that the Pirates’ only other pinch-hit options were pitchers, the safe course of action is to walk Tabata. This puts runners at first and second, but with a vastly inferior hitter at the dish.

The situation cannot be effectively measured by WPA without incorporating the strength of the batter. The Pirates might appear to have more of a chance to win the game with runners at first and second as opposed to just having first base occupied, but the difference is likely offset by the gap in productivity at the plate between Tabata and Olson. It’s interesting to ponder: does Tabata up with a runner on first give you a better shot at winning than a reliever up with first and second? I vote yes without hesitation, meaning Tracy’s decision should have been clear.

Read the rest of this entry »


He Didn’t Leave a ‘Lastings’ Impression

In 2003, the New York Mets drafted 18-year old Lastings Milledge with the 12th overall selection. On Thursday, the White Sox designated 26-year old Lastings Milledge for assignment. Having spent time in both the major and minor leagues for four different organizations over the past four seasons, the former highly touted high school product has lost virtually all of his luster.

Though his career is at a crossroads right now, Milledge finds himself in an interesting situation. He isn’t talented enough to legitimately help any team, but he will undoubtedly be given every opportunity to prove that assessment incorrect.

Read the rest of this entry »


Jays Decline Hill’s Oddly Structured Options

Teams have gravitated toward contract options in recent years in an attempt to better insure themselves against a lack of payroll flexibility. Options allow teams to retain players in future seasons without guaranteeing the salary. Some deals, like the one Aaron Hill signed after a solid 3.5 win season in 2007, include multiple options.

Hill’s contract is particularly interesting as it includes a unique clause related to the options for the 2012-14 seasons. Before their season opener against the Twins, the Jays had the ability to exercise or decline all three of those options at once. They structured the deal in a manner that allowed them to make a decision on the three option years as a cohesive unit before the season while still being able to exercise the individual options for 2012 and 2013 if they so desired at the end of the year.

The move carries little risk. The Jays eliminated the possibility of Hill earning the $10 million his contract called for if the 2014 option were to be picked up, while leaving open the possibility of bringing him back at $8 million each over the next two seasons. It almost seems as if the 2014 option was used exclusively as a ploy to entice Hill into signing the deal. Why else structure a contract in this unique manner?

As fun as the contractual clause is to discuss, Hill’s numbers are even more interesting.

Read the rest of this entry »