He Didn’t Leave a ‘Lastings’ Impression
In 2003, the New York Mets drafted 18-year old Lastings Milledge with the 12th overall selection. On Thursday, the White Sox designated 26-year old Lastings Milledge for assignment. Having spent time in both the major and minor leagues for four different organizations over the past four seasons, the former highly touted high school product has lost virtually all of his luster.
Though his career is at a crossroads right now, Milledge finds himself in an interesting situation. He isn’t talented enough to legitimately help any team, but he will undoubtedly be given every opportunity to prove that assessment incorrect.
At 26, Milledge is still young enough not to be written off as a bust, but he hasn’t developed the skills many envisioned would come with more experience in the majors. He has some pop but not enough to make scouts think that the power stroke is right around the corner. He can run, but has not been successful stealing bases. Further, he does not even reach base enough to effectively utilize his speed. And while he won’t hurt a team in the outfield with his defensive play, he also isn’t a range demon. Mix everything together and that resume seems to belong to the last player on a bench and not a prospect about to blossom into an effective regular.
His splits don’t even profile well in a platoon situation. Against opposite handed pitchers he has a career line of .287/.361/.432, which is similar to Raul Ibanez ‘s overall numbers last year–decent but underwhelming. To merit usage in a specified role such as a platoon, you better bring it with the stick against an opposite-handed hurler. Teams aren’t going to be confident using a player with that slash line as the right-handed piece of bread in a platoon sandwich. Those that express such an interest are likely desperate or just in need of a cheap stopgap.
When a player is designated for assignment, the team has 10 days to decide whether it wants to release, trade, or assign him to the minors. Deciding on the latter course of action requires the team to place the player on irrevocable outright waivers, where he can be claimed by any of the other 29 teams. Given how Milledge’s career has gone so far, it’s likely that some team will submit a waiver claim.
That’s what happens to players like Milledge, who fall into the awkward area of not being good enough to retain a job on a major league team, but who are young and who have an enticing enough pedigree to consistently be given opportunities to succeed. I could probably store this article as a template on my computer, update the initial employer and the age, and run it each year, as the circumstances are unlikely to change.
Don’t believe me? Heck, Corey Patterson is still getting chances, and his background is similar. Milledge has a career .269/.328/.395 slash line. Patterson has hit .253/.292/.404. Their skillsets are a tad different, but if I had to project the rest of Milledge’s career I would suggest you look no further than Patterson.
Players like Milledge don’t generally “figure it out” but neither do teams. By the time Milledge is 30 years old, he will have played for eight teams, each of which kicked itself for not being able to turn perceived garbage into gold. Bank it.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
Very good stuff Eric. I feel that is even more so true of left-handed pitchers, where they don’t even need to have the “enticing enough pedigree” they just need to have a left arm (see: Chen, Bruce).
I think that’s the fans’ perceptions, but the consensus I get from reading Tango, BPro, etc is that average lefty starter has to be better than the average righty starter because there are so many more right-handed batters, and RHBs generally have a favorable split versus LHPs.
So, the idea that teams just throw a lefty out there because he’s a lefty doesn’t seem to jive with how the other team’s lineup is constructed.
While the WARs vary depending on source, Chen has not been a highly paid commodity (only “getting paid” after his 2-3W WAR season in 08). Most years he has been replacement level or above for replacement level money … with 3 years above replacement and a couple at league average.
Being left-handed probably doesn’t due him in favors in terms of being able to get people out. Teams keep Chen around because he usually makes $~500K, which is dirt cheap for a starter. This year he makes $2M because of a league average + 2010.
Yeah I am not saying that a lefty-starter isn’t a difficult job, but let’s also be honest and say if Chen was right-handed and put up those numbers he would not have a 14 or so year career. There are guys like Oliver Perez, getting another shot (lefty) whereas a right-handed pitcher wouldnt. It isnt about their pay, it is about the fact they can stick around so long for years and years with such mediocre results.
Beg to differ that he won’t hurt a team with his defense, his routes and instincts are just plain terrible. Way too many misplayed balls, particularly in left and he has a lollipop arm.
Really after watching him closely for the better parts of two years, its really hard to see any of the “tools” that he was believed to have. He is a terrible baserunner as well and makes numerous bonheaded decisions out there. His hit tool seems to be decent, but he has had zero power and really only handles lefties well. I have no idea how he managed an almost 15 HR/25 SB season in Washington.
exactly. He misplayed two balls last week, and I think that was the prompt to drop him. Viciedo can be the same meh outfielder for the Sox, but with plenty of pop.
Look, I’m not a Lastings fan at all, but there is a reason teams take chances on guys this young.
Jayson Werth’s age 22-24 seasons:
.208/.255/.417 in 326 pa
0.262/.338/.486 in 395 pa
0.234/.338/.374 in 304 pa
Milledge’s 22-24 seasons:
.272/.341/.446 in 206 pa
.268/.330/.402 in 587 pa
.279/.323/.373 in 265 pa
I know they’re very different players and have different situations and all that. I also know it’s not likely Lastings becomes anything. But it’s certainly not unheard of and it would be worth it for a lot of teams to give him a shot.
Not an apples-to-apples comparison. Werth was injured for most of the beginning of his career and he was a significantly different type of player, with a vastly different body type and form of athleticism. Taking chances on Werth is one thing. Taking chances on Milledge and Corey Patterson is an entirely different animal.
Lastings has been injured nearly every year of his career so far.
I know it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. But I’m saying it’s not all that crazy to hope for a team to take a shot on guys like that. Check out the career paths of guys like Andres Torres and Angel Pagan – sometimes players take a little longer. The problem for Milledge is that expectations were extremely high and he also has a bad reputation, and I’m not even sure where the bad reputation came from. Like I said – I’m not Milledge fan, but I couldn’t fault a rebuilding team for giving him a shot.
I’m not faulting anyone either. I’m just saying it seems unlikely that he will pan out. And expectations SHOULD have been high. Pagan showed signs of being successful, Milledge has not. He’s certainly worth taking a flier on, but I’m very bearish on him ever achieving success.
I don’t get stuff like this. What did the White Sox learn in 4 PA over 2 games and 11 innings in LF that they didn’t know a week ago coming out of Tucson? I know he is the 25th guy on the roster, it doesn’t matter a whole lot and they weren’t expecting a 4 WAR season but what made him worse now than he was then?
Dropped a flyball in Cleveland, though ruled a hit.
Looked terrible on at least two balls in Kansas City. Even Hawk and Stoney couldn’t make excuses for him and they didn’t even try.
The problem was less Millidge and more Will Ohman. The White Sox bullpen has already thrown a bunch of innings, and Ohman has been awful pretty much every time he’s pitched. So Ozzie and Kenny agreed that they needed a 12th pitcher, thus meaning they had to DFA either Millidge or Brent Lillibridge. They chose to hold onto the latter because of speed and positional versatility. Ozzie, who is always candid with his feelings about players, said telling Millidge was being DFA’d was an incredibly difficult thing for him to do.
A couple of things are wrong with this article and the first was pointed out by PiratesHurdles – Milledge is not an average outfielder. At best, he is slightly below average.
I also don’t see how he is “the last player on a bench” – he clearly isn’t even that good or he would have stuck with one of his last four teams. His peak at this point is a AAA player.
He’s been above replacement level each of the last 4 years, so I’d say his floor is AAAA journeyman, though the possibility he ever develops into a productive regular anywhere is getting pretty small.
“Given how Milledge’s career has gone so far, it’s likely that some team will submit a waiver claim.”
I actually disagree – I think that given how his career has progressed thus far, it appears increasingly likely that teams may be beginning to realize that Milledge blows big monkey schlong.
His on base skills are a lot better than you are giving him credit for. You cant compare to Patterson – Milledge has a career .380 minor league OBP, and while his MLB .328 obp is not good, most of his at bats came in his pre-peak years of ages 21-24, and as you mentioned, he is at 361 versus Lefties. Well deserving of a major league platoon or 4th OF job in my opinion.
Except that Patterson plays a creditable center field. If your defense isn’t that good — even in a corner –, you’re NOT going to be a fourth outfielder unless you marry the manager’s daughter.
If the best thing you say about Milledge is that he had a good minor league OBP, you have a problem. I wish this article mentioned who was replacing him on the roster. If it’s Viciedo, Milledge likely only made the team because of injury to a better player.
Anyway, all comparisons I’ve seen to Milledge don’t make sense yet, mainly because all other guys mentioned are useful. Milledge is a classic guy where you need to ignore the numbers (not that they’re great) and you need to see him to understand why he won’t make any team better. Bad baserunning, bad fielding, poor hitting. That’s why teams give up on him so quickly. Plus, I don’t think he has a very team oriented attitiude, which is very necessary for a bench guy.
I hate the Patterson comparison because Patterson was actually successful early on. He was a productive major league player for a couple of years. Milledge had about a month where he looked like a future star. Look at Patterson’s year last year. Very successful as a fill in. Very good baserunning and better than replacement fielding. Even as a pinch runner, Patterson has good value.
I guess the White Sox actually called up Jeff Gray… well that’s just sad.
With the way Will Ohman has pitched and the number of innings the bullpen has already thrown, management decided that it was necessary to bring a 7th reliever.
I also wonder like MikeS. Millage is known for his fire…did he burn the bridge halfway across?
LM is a platoon DH v LHP with .400 wOBA in two of the last four seasons, .370 the other… not much there, and then there is the likely personal issue.
“then there is the likely personal issue.”
What?
I cannot unread that article title…
RASTING MILLEEEJ!!
Worst article I’ve read in a while. The guy who wrote it must have been asleep this spring in which Milledge showed that his upside is still very high by posting tremendous numbers. The fact is that he wasn’t even supposed to make the Sox in the first place, but played so well in spring that they couldn’t cut him and still sleep at night. unfortunately the ineffectiveness of some of their pitchers forced management’s hand and made them get rid of Milledge after 4 at bats. Any rational and unbiased baseball fan can see that Milledge is still a developing player and has shown signs that he will possibly be a productive big league player. Im thinking Ozzie Guillen & Ken Williams might have a little more credibility than whoever wrote this article.
spring training stats? i don’t think anyone disputes that lastings milledge can hit minor league pitchers.
you ever heard of Jayson Werth?
yeah. quite different players with quite different reasons for why they stunk early in their careers. if you’re going to hold out for the extreme outlier, feel free to do so.
I plan on doing exactly that. good talking with u though.
I’m not sure that Corey Patterson is a good example for Milledge, though.
Patterson keeps landing jobs because he’s a plus defensive center fielder that brings some value on the bases- any offensive value he provides is gravy. But with Milledge, like you said, he’s a solid-but-unimpressive defender on the corners that can’t match Patterson’s speed or base-stealing ability.
Ok anyone who thinks Lasto Millage is a “solid but unimpressive” fielder has never seen him play. He is just about the worst defensive OF I have ever seen (watched the game for 30 years). He is downright dreadful! When he was a Nat he was brutal. He often ran semi-circles while the ball went over his head. The inside the park homerun against the NATS on opening day in 2009 was entirely his fault. His CF defense was a primary cause for the terrible ERA the NATS had early that season. Lannan is just strarting to pitch to contact again after losing confidence in 2009. LASTO is just dreadful, dreadful defensively (and I watched Dunn play LF for most of an entire season). Honestly, Lasto makes Jack Cust look like a gold glover.
false. complete bull assessment based on bias and small sample sizes.
While I havn’t watched Lastings field since I gave him a high five at Shea (note: this is how his bad reputation began) I agree with Conjecture101).
How many of Lastings’ put outs could “kick me in the GO NATS” have watched? It baffles me that people as uninformed on basic-modern-baseball-analysis as “kick me in the GO NATS” not only read this site but also take the time to post responses.
Disclaimer: I did not actually give Lastings the aforementioned high-five, but I did watch him field in that game and remember ONLY the high-five.
Very similar to how “kick me in the GO NATS” ONLY remembers him misplaying one FB that went for an ITPHR.
Exactly on target, he is a terrible fielder with bad instincts.
Funny you mentioned Patterson. I did a list of batters from THT’s Forecasts, Milledge was 120th of 179 LFers, ahead of only Garret Anderson and Corey Patterson among guys who played in MLB last year.
what ever happened to Elijia Dukes?
google “DUKES IS A LOVING HUSBAND”
Disagree with the assessment of Milledge in this article. A 26-year old OF that’s played the majority of his career between the Nats and Pirates (one season where he had 14 HRs and 26 SBs) should be able to produce in the right organization.
Agreed
Well known in baseball circles “toolsy” outfielders can often take a long time to develop to fruition; IF they ever do. I think the verdict still has to be out on this kid honestly…
I watched almost every game he played for Pittsburgh and there is no projection left. He is what he is, a bad fielding, bad base running, no arm replacement level player.
That’s because “toolsy” is code for: “Does lots of stuff okay, but nothing so great that you’d point it out- plus doesn’t have good enough instincts to be called a natural.” Needless to say, there’s an awful lot that can go wrong when you’re toolsy…
Who would the Bucs release or DFA to sign Lastings? Steve Pearce? John Bowker? If neither of them, does he have options left in AAA? I’m not sure we have room for him in AAA. Then AA?
I just cannot possibly fathom why they continue to hold on to Lillibridge.
All of you guys who comment on how bad of a defender he is and how he is not a good player obsivously know nothing about baseball. These nationals fans always have something real slick to say when millledge name comes up in the news yet the player they traded for him is not even on there team anymore. Message to these national fans you guys stunk with him and you stink without him stop acting like your this great team without milledge. This article was written buy someone who does not like millegde im sure he’s more into the Jason Bay type U know the guy that shows no emotion on the field and puts up decent numbers but in the end he never wins. Millegde will be up by the all star break
Excellent, keep doing you hot the idea