Kris Benson has had quite the curious career, mixing solid and awful campaigns with an unappealing injury history, and a personal relationship that hogged more headlines than his actual performance. He burst onto the scene in 1999, with the Pirates, and put up an impressive 4.14 FIP in 196.2 innings. Benson avoided the sophomore slump in 2000, posting a 4.20 FIP in 217.2 innings. He then missed the entire 2001 season recovering from an injury and saw limited action the next two seasons.

In 2004, Benson split time between the Pirates and Mets, and put together his best season. With a 3.75 FIP, 2.20 K/BB, and +3.8 wins in 200.1 innings, Benson appeared to have finally recovered from his injury woes, righting the proverbial ship in the process. Unfortunately, this was not the case, as his strikeout and home run rates trended in opposite directions in 2005 and 2006, leading Benson back under the knife for rotator cuff surgery.

He missed the entire 2007 season recovering and went through the audition process before landing a gig in the Phillies farm system in 2008. Things didn’t exactly work out as planned, as not only did Benson fail to reach the major leagues, he struggled to shut down AAA hitting, eventually earning his release from the team. After some more auditioning, the Rangers have taken a flyer on Benson, signing him to a minor league deal that could be valued at $2 mil if he makes the team and earns a spot in the rotation.

This bugs me. I don’t know how I became the Chairman of the Odalis Perez Foundation, but I just struggle to comprehend how the 34-yr old Benson, who stunk in the minor leagues last year and has not pitched in the majors since 2006 has the chance to make over twice what the 31-yr old Odalis Perez—who has put up win values of +1.6, +1.4, +1.5, and +1.5 over the last four seasons—will make in 2009.

Ignoring the Perez comparison, this is not a bad move for the Rangers given how poor their rotation performed last season and how relatively little Benson costs. If he makes the team, he seems capable of hovering around +1-win performance but he no longer has the +2 or +3 win upside evident in his stellar 2004 season. And who knows if he has even fully recovered? This is a solid move for the Rangers but I just wonder why someone like Perez was not more attractive to their plans.

Well, after countless rumors over the last few offseasons involving a potential Brian Roberts trade, the second baseman has agreed to a 4-yr extension with the Baltimore Orioles. He stated that his decision centered around a desire to remain with the same team for his entire career as well as how the Orioles are going to shape up as players in the AL East sweepstakes throughout the duration of this extension.

Well… there’s that, or the fact that, if this offseason is any indication, a 31-yr old second baseman who would likely garner the Type A status is simply not going to get anything near this deal from anyone other than the Yankees.

The extension runs from 2010-2013 and will pay Roberts $10 mil/season for a grand total of $40 mil. Since 2003, Roberts has been a very productive second baseman. Dave wrote this afternoon about Orlando Hudson’s productivity, averaging +2.5 wins over the last four seasons. From 2003-08, the lowest win value posted by Roberts was +2.3, in 2004. All told, he has averaged +3.9 wins/season over the last six seasons.

Most people know of Roberts thanks to his gaudy 2005 campaign, in which he produced +6.3 wins on the heels of a .314/.387/.515 line, a .389 wOBA, and +5 run defense at the keystone. Following that career year, Roberts halved his productivity to +3.1 wins. +3.1 wins from a second baseman is very impressive but the mark paled in comparison to the previous season and many considered Roberts a bust. His critics were largely silenced over the last two seasons when he posted win values of +4.4 and +4.5.

Roberts’ fielding has declined since 2006, and does not shape up to get any better. CHONE sees Roberts at around a .360 wOBA worth +17 runs. Roberts is also a good bet to play over 150 games and amass 650+ PA. With that in mind, his 2009 win value components break down like this: +17 batting, -2 fielding, +23 replacement, +2.4 positional. Put together, Roberts looks like a +3.6 win player. In a normal market, that production commands $16.2 mil. If he declines by a half-win each season, and the average annual dollars/win stayed $4.5 mil, with a 10% discount for the contractual guarantee, the four-year deal would be valued at $46 mil.

Initially the deal looks better for Roberts, as he simply was not going to get this much elsewhere. Normally, it might favor the Orioles as they would have a hard time bringing in as productive of a player for $10 mil or below. If Roberts had been a free agent this season we would have a better idea of what he could have commanded but, as of now, I’m comfortable saying that the deal favors Roberts over the Orioles but that the Orioles are still getting a very productive player at a seemingly below market price.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote here about the odd contract Odalis Perez signed with the Washington Nationals. The deal, non-guaranteed, would pay Perez just $850,000 if he ended up making the team. My major points of contention were that a) Perez has been eerily consistent over the last four seasons, putting up win values of +1.6, +1.4, +1.5, and +1.5 and b) Perez projected to be worth right around +1.5 wins again in 2009, a fair market value of around $6.5 mil. It also made little sense that Tim Redding, essentially the same age yet much less productive in the recent past, would garner a guaranteed deal worth three times the money.

Well, apparenty Odalis reads Fangraphs and agrees with my assessment because he is now in the process of holding out for a better deal. Okay, he probably has no idea about this site, but the timing sure seems like he does. Perez stated that the more he thought about the contract, the more it bothered him. He wants his work last season to be appreciated and feels he deserves a guaranteed spot in the rotation with at least a bit more money. Honestly, I can’t blame him.

However, I can blame him for reaching his epiphany at this juncture. If someone offers me a contract, I’m going to carefully think over my options as well as the terms and then make a decision. This situation has the feel to it that Odalis signed the first deal thrown his way after experiencing the harsh market and then realized after the fact he was taken advantage of. The situation also seems similar to a prima-donna actor who feels a part should be given to him without auditioning because he has delivered solid performances in past films. Perhaps the actor, and Perez, should receive guarantees sans auditions, but these are contractual terms to be negotiated before signing, not afterwards.

If Perez does have a deal considered binding by the MLB and the Players Association, the right thing to do would be to honor the deal and report to camp. What makes little sense here is that Perez has no offers from opposing teams, and the best deal he could conjure up involved a non-guaranteed $850K from the equivalent of a Quad-A team. What does he expect is going to happen? That he’ll captain the Dominican team to the WBC Championship and the Yankees will offer him a 2-yr/$8 mil guaranteed deal? This simply is not likely to occur. If Odalis Perez wants to play baseball this year he should honor the contract he signed. It may be a lowballing deal and he may be worth more, but he should have thought about these things prior to signing.

Frank Thomas turns 41 years old on May 27, has not played over 27 games in the field since 2003, and is coming off of a poor 2008 season that, though marred with injuries, resulted in a league average .328 wOBA. Perhaps the average offensive output, deemed abysmal by many, speaks more for the career of Thomas than the season itself; you’re probably in good baseball shape when a .328 wOBA is considered poor compared to the .363-.421 range posted over the previous six seasons. Thomas is a sure-fire Hall of Fame player, with a .301/.419/.555 line, a .416 wOBA, and 521 home runs. Heck, with a bit more luck on the injury front, Thomas could be in line to approach the Willie Mays mark this season. He could hang up his cleats right now and walk away as one of the best hitters we have seen in a while.

But Frank Thomas does not want to retire. Instead, Frank has seemingly adopted the age-old spring training cliche that he is in great shape. In fact, Thomas recently stated he feels capable of mashing 35-40 home runs, and is surprised that nobody has made any type of bid for his services. With all of the corner outfielders and potential designated hitters on the market this offseason, Thomas became an afterthought, perhaps not even a worst case scenario. Good reasoning exists behind his lack of appeal, though, as Thomas has played 140+ games just three times in the last eight seasons. Combine that with the attributes mentioned at the very beginning of this post and it is not hard to see why teams are not exactly jumping to sign the former MVP.

Thomas’s balls-in-play rates last season were not too far off of his 2006 and 2007 marks, when he hit well enough to post wOBAs of .391 and .372 while launching a total of 65 dingers. His .282 BABIP actually surpassed the .251 mark produced in 2006, when he had a monster season. He sustained a solid BB-rate and didn’t see too drastic a jump in his K-rate either. So what happened? For one, Frank’s 7.9% HR/FB not only fell below the league average, but was essentially cut in half from the 15% HR/FB averaged since 2002. On top of that, his power output vanished. Since 2005, Thomas has seen his ISO decline from .371 to .275 to .203 to just .134.

If the nagging quad injury really hurt The Big Hurt’s production, and he checks out physically, why aren’t more teams calling? After all, without even factoring in a rebound from injury, Thomas still projects to be worth around +1.3 wins. Maybe, like Ray Durham, Thomas does not want to play for a bargain-bin salary or a non-guaranteed contract. Maybe he feels that with a fully healed quad, his production would more closely resemble the +2.4 wins amassed in 2007 or even the +3.3 wins supplied to the Athletics in 2006. The big elephant in the room of course is that he doesn’t check out physically.

Then again, if he were willing to accept a non-guaranteed contract or performance based deal, this wouldn’t be an issue. Just like the Eric Gagne deal, if Thomas makes the team he earns some money, and if he produces up to the standards he holds himself to, he would make even more. Frank Thomas is nowhere near as bad as he looked in 2008, with +0.2 win production, but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking he is going to rebound into a +4-win player again. He could still help a team but it would have to be on their terms. We’ll have to wait and see if Thomas is too proud to play that way.

He did so back in 2006 to prove he could still hit, but who knows if he really wants to do that again. Maybe he feels that the 2006 and 2007 seasons suffice as showing what he can do and the 2008 campaign should obviously be considered a blip on the radar. This clearly is not obvious to GMs and I would venture a guess that Thomas doesn’t sign prior to Opening Day. No matter what, he has still put together one heck of a career.

Oh, how the markets change. Last night, we took a look at Will Ohman, a lefty reliever coming off of the best season of his career, who may be in line to take a 40 percent paycut off of his $1.6 mil salary in 2008. Today, our subject of discussion is Eric Gagne, who, in 2007, posted a +1.1 win value just two-tenths of a win higher than Ohman’s +0.9 last season, yet somehow parlayed that production into a $10 mil salary from the Brewers. The deal was questionable at best at the time of the signing and looked downright foolish at the end of the season.

In 50 games, Gagne posted a 5.44 ERA and 6.13 FIP, actually costing the Brewers an entire win on the season. With a -1.0 WAR, it would have cost the Brewers $4.6 mil just to get back to replacement level at his roster spot. Well, Gagne is going to return to the Brewers in 2009, albeit under much different circumstances. This time around, he is not guaranteed a roster spot, and even if incentives kick in, the contract maxes out at $4.5 mil, under half of last year’s figure.

If he makes the big league roster out of Spring Training, Gagne will earn a base salary of $1.5 mil. Up to $2 mil in incentives can be earned by pitching anywhere from 25-60 games. Lastly, another $1 mil could be had by finishing 50-65 games, which simply isn’t going to happen. Assuming he pitches in 45 games with the major league team, Gagne looks poised to make around $3 mil next season. And yet Will Ohman, with better and more consistent production over the last three years is struggling to sniff $1 mil on a 1-yr deal?

GM Doug Melvin stated that Gagne pitched much better in the second half of the season. In his first 25 games, Gagne produced a 7.03 ERA with 16 BB and 23 K in 24.1 innings. He could still strike hitters out but his control vanished and too many baserunners came around to score. In his next 25 games, the numbers vastly improved to the tune of a 3.68 ERA, 6 BB and 15 K, and a lower home run rate.

Under the lenses of this microscope, the deal looks great for the Brewers. Gagne isn’t guaranteed any money, and if he pitches like he did down the stretch in 2008, his production would likely command the $3-$3.5 mil anyways. If his second half numbers turned out to be flukey and the result of much-needed regression, no harm, no foul, and the Brewers can cut him before the regular season gets underway.

Bringing in formerly great pitchers and giving them a chance to revert to their former selves is a fine tactic utilized by many GMs. Doing so at a $10 mil salary isn’t as sound. A $1.5 mil base salary with potential for incentives, or a deal with similar terms, is the way to go, making this a win for the Brewers.

With the marquis free agent relievers all reporting to their new digs and Juan Cruz figuring out exactly what the heck is going on with his status, much attention has been turned to three lefty relievers: Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, and Joe Beimel. While Reyes and Beimel have been linked to a couple of different teams, both apparently pale in comparison to Will Ohman, who now has six teams vying for his services. Ohman, 31, spent last season with the Atlanta Braves after four years with the Chicago Cubs.

In 58.2 innings spread over 83 games, Ohman posted a 3.17 FIP that proved good enough to add +0.9 wins to the Braves. This mark isn’t too far off his three-year average of +0.7 wins, which is close to his projection next season. At fair market value, +0.7 wins would command between $3 and $3.2 mil. If that fee seems a bit on the high side, perhaps the more realistic fair market value for such production falls in the $2.2-$2.6 mil range. Being able to sign an effective lefty like Ohman for somewhere in that range of salaries would be a relative steal, yet the teams interested in acquiring the quirky lefty do not feel the same.

In fact, several are reported to be unlikely to go past $1 mil with Ohman. Ohman currently has offers on the table from the Pirates, Padres, and Marlins, but is waiting to hear back from the Phillies, Mets, and Dodgers. The Phillies would be a nice fit for Ohman given the suspension to JC Romero, but Ruben Amaro Jr does not seem too keen on paying $2-$3 mil to a pitcher who will realistically just fill in for two months of the season. The Mets seem to feel the same way given the upgrades made to their bullpen. Adding Ohman would be nice but they aren’t going to “break the bank” to bring him in.

If the reports that the Pirates, Padres, and Marlins—teams that have made Ohman offers—are not willing to go past $1 mil on a 1-yr deal are true, and that the contending teams with interest do not want to “overpay” it becomes quite possible that Ohman’s salary in 2009 might decline by 40 percent following the best season he has put together.

And if Ohman signs first, does that then increase the value of both Reyes and Beimel given the lower supply of available and effective relievers? Perhaps Ohman would like to see Beimel or Reyes sign first and use those contracts as leverage. Unfortunately, while teams have expressed interest, it is halfway through February and negotiations have not even begun for several of these suitors. These are certainly strange times and it is even odder to consider a 40% forced paycut on only a 1-yr deal to someone like Ohman coming a year after Francisco Cordero received his ridiculously lucrative 4-yr deal.

The New York Mets made early splashes this offseason by acquiring Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz to strengthen their bullpen. Omar Minaya then nabbed Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia to potentially fill the back of the rotation, and signed Oliver Perez to man the fourth spot. Which makes it particularly odd that they signed Livan Hernandez over the weekend to a minor league deal. The deal is worth $1 mil and another $1 mil in performance bonuses that obviously could not be earned if he fails to make the major league team.

Livan has the reputation as an innings-eater, which is what the media calls pitchers who log a good amount innings with no other real skills. For instance, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana are also innings-eaters but are never referred to as such because they are actually fantastic pitchers. Livan was never a fantastic pitcher, but, from 1997-2004, he had plenty of value. If his rookie season in 1997 is discounted due to a lack of playing time, and we instead look at 1998-2004, Livan’s 1605 innings pitched ranks second to just Randy Johnson. Despite all of the innings, he provided league average production with a 101 ERA+.

After the 2004 season, his modest strikeout and walk rates began to trend in opposite directions. In 2007 his rates had plummeted to an awful 3.96 in the K/9 department and a 3.48 BB/9. Due to the large amounts of innings logged his raw walk numbers always looked worse than his rates, but he failed to miss bats and became way too susceptible to hits allowed.

He signed with the Twins last season but was released after 23 games. At that juncture he had a 4.68 FIP and a 5.48 ERA. His BB/9 had dropped nicely to the tune of 1.87, but unfortunately his strikeout rate followed suit, falling to an abysmal 3.48 per nine innings. The Rockies, for whatever reason, thought he was a tremendous upgrade over Kip Wells and brought him aboard. In the eight starts he made for the Rockies, Livan posted a 2.90 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9, a 5.86 FIP, and an 8.03 ERA.

The only thing that has saved Hernandez over the last three years in the win value department is his durability. Without the innings, he has the peripherals of a replacement or below-replacement pitcher. All told, over the last three seasons he has posted win values of +1.7, +0.3, and +1.4. CHONE projects Hernandez to log 171 innings with a 5.21 FIP, which means a slightly higher FIP in a slightly lesser amount of innings. Should these marks come to fruition, Hernandez would likely produce exactly +1 win.

Relative to fair market value, the deal favors the Mets, because Hernandez can be cut if he stinks like he did with the Rockies. There is nothing wrong with giving a few pitchers shots at making the big league team on non-guaranteed contracts with invitations to Spring Training, but Livan looks way past finished. How he was able to pitch in so many innings with poor production is beyond me, but he will need to start missing bats to be anywhere near effective.

Color this analyst skeptical that this 35-yr old is suddenly going to revert to the 1997-1999 version of himself and make the all-star team. The Mets already have Tim Redding as the de facto fifth starter and Freddy Garcia signed a hefty incentive-laden deal to potentially compete with Redding. Do they really need a third horse in this race? Again, there is nothing wrong with this contract from a terms standpoint, but it definitely catalyzes some head scratches.

The Phillies and first-year GM Ruben Amaro Jr raised eyebrows this offseason when they quickly signed Raul Ibanez to a 3-yr/$31.5 mil contract. Many analysts, myself included, jumped all over the move, questioning Ibanez’s performance and productivity in relation to the terms of the deal while simultaneously comparing the former Mariner to Phillies stalwart Pat Burrell. One critique of the signing that initially took a backseat to the performance comparison involves the surplus of similar players on the market. With at least six corner outfielders eligible for free agency, especially in this economy, Ibanez could have been had for a much lower salary.

According to former Phillies GM Pat Gillick, this might not be true. While hanging around Clearwater, the Phillies home for Spring Training, Gillick remarked that the Cubs had a strong interest in Ibanez and were pushing pretty hard. Lou Piniella and Ibanez shared a solid relationship dating back to Sweet Lou’s managerial tenure in Seattle and was extremely high on the left-handed left-fielder.

The Cubs desired a left-handed outfielder and apparently Ibanez topped their list. If this is true, then the Phillies acted similarly to the Braves with Derek Lowe. Frank Wren and Co. jumped on Lowe, perhaps even paying him a bit more, when they heard the Phillies were seriously considering moving Brett Myers to free up some payroll space. It would also mean that, if the Phillies were also sold on Ibanez as the best choice, the rationale behind the years/dollars is not as transparent as before. Don’t get me wrong, I still consider it a very poor deal due to his age, fielding, and potentially declining offense, but it now makes more sense why they signed him so early in the offseason: they felt he was the guy and learned of a serious competitor. In my eyes they are wrong, but at least their reasoning is a bit more known despite being overly incorrect.

Gillick also touched on the Pat Burrell situation, implying that the Phillies had plenty of interest in his return, but debates raged over specific contractual terms. The actual average annual value was not the problem, but rather the years. Given that the Phillies have stated they offered Burrell a 2-yr/$22 mil deal, I’m guessing Burrell wanted 3-yr/$33 mil. Halfway through the season that may actually have been realistic as an extension, but given all of the factors mentioned at the top of this post, it simply wasn’t going to happen in the free agent market.

The big issue arose when the Phillies signed Ibanez to the above-market contract and then witnessed the market collapse to the point that Burrell could only coax the Rays for 2-yr/$16 mil. He is more productive than Raul, and younger, and signed for half the total dollars. The problem here isn’t necessarily that the Phillies hopped on a player very early in an odd market, but that they felt Ibanez was such a superior option than everyone else. Had they practiced some due diligence, they not only could have brought back the more productive player, but they could have done so at a vastly discounted price.

Things are finally beginning to shape out. After Raul Ibanez signed a somewhat ludicrous contract well before the glut of corner outfielders felt the constraints of the current economy, first hand, some of these cards have been drawn. Bobby Abreu signed for 1-yr/$5 mil with the Angels. Adam Dunn signed for 2-yr/$20 mil with the Nationals. Compared to the 3-yr/$31.5 mil contract handed to Ibanez, and, in a vacuum, the former two signings are relative steals.

As Dave pointed out yesterday, however, both create issues for their respective teams and lineups. One aspect of their signings not yet touched on is what it means for the remaining corner outfielders on the market, primarily Manny Ramirez. Manny has already turned down deals worth 2-yr/$45 mil and 1-yr/$25 mil, both offered from the Dodgers, who seem to be his only suitor.

The Giants reportedly had interest in the services of ManRam, but their 4-yr/$100 mil rumored deal proved fictitious or exaggerated at best. And the Giants may spend a good portion of what they have left on Joe Crede. The Mets are out. The Angels, another potential suitor, filled a void that probably didn’t exist by signing Abreu. The Nats, who had plenty to spend, inked Dunn. Realistically, Manny has one team really interested in what he brings to the table, a team that has to date offered him two contracts defying what we have generally seen in the market, in Manny’s favor.

For a while, plenty of analysts suggested that Manny would dictate what happened to Dunn, Abreu, Griffey and Garret. Realistically, the deals inked by both Abreu and Dunn not only lower the bar even further for Griffey and Garret, but hurt Manny’s leverage. With potentially interested teams filling needs elsewhere, Ramirez will have to sign with the Dodgers if he wants to play baseball next year, unless some other team swoops in out of nowhere and snatches him up.

Either way, this has certainly been the craziest free agent market I can remember in my years of baseball fandom. We have a player seeking an extremely lucrative deal in a depressed market from a team that has no competition for his services. Then again, Scott Boras, the best agent of all time, represents Manny, so don’t be surprised if he actually does coax the Dodgers for a surplus of funds.

The Dodgers starting rotation next season is going to look a tad different. Derek Lowe has left for greener pastures in Atlanta, Brad Penny is expected to amalgamate with John Smoltz to provide a decent pitcher in Boston, and Greg Maddux’s retirement disables him from being acquired late in the season for a third time. Returning will be incumbent ace Chad Billingsley, the productive but somewhat inconsistent Hiroki Kuroda, and the youngster Clayton Kershaw.

Randy Wolf signed a 1-yr/$5 mil deal to man the fourth spot in the rotation earlier this week, meaning the fifth spot is up for grabs between a good number of candidates. Competing for that fifth spot will be, at the very least, Jason Schmidt, Shawn Estes, Eric Stults, and Claudio Vargas. Ramon Troncoso may also figure into the mix. One recently signed pitcher who will not compete for the fifth spot in Spring Training is Jeff Weaver.

Weaver inked a $500,000 minor league deal this week with an invitation to Spring Training. He plans on competing for a bullpen spot. In 2004 and 2005, while with the Dodgers, Weaver posted seasons of +3.5 and +2.0 wins, logging 220+ innings each season. He signed with the Angels in 2006 and proceeded to put up a 5.23 FIP in 16 starts, before finding himself donning a Cardinals uniform.

On the surface, it appears that he performed better in St. Louis, with an ERA over one point lower, but it was largely smoke. His FIP actually rose to 5.71 in the 15 subsequent starts with the Cardinals. Weaver pitched well in the 2006 playoffs, though, en route to a World Series win, and coaxed a contract from the Mariners the following season. As Dave Cameron noted in the 2007 The Hardball Times Annual, Weaver’s season was incredibly interesting to follow. At times he looked unstoppable, but in between those games were spurts, sometimes extended, of awful performance.

Overall, Weaver made 27 starts with a 5.07 FIP and 6.20 ERA in 2007. He bounced around the farm systems of both the Indians and Brewers last season, but his numbers failed to improve. Putting up a 5.18+ FIP in the minor leagues is not going to impress anyone, especially when you are no longer a 22-yr old prospect still looking to harness raw abilities.

If Weaver can have a solid Spring Training he may be a good bet to replace Chan Ho Park as an extended righty out of the pen with the potential to make starts when needed. Either way, this is a low-risk move for the Dodgers if there ever was one: if he makes the team, then he had to have shown them some semblance of remaining ability, making his ~league minimum $500k salary worth the cost.

If he has completely lost everything, he won’t make the team or earn any money. I cannot pinpoint why but I am personally pulling for him to make the club and produce at the major league level again. Regardless, this is likely his last chance to salvage what was once a very promising career.