During the baseball off-season, few, if any aspects of the game are as interesting as where free agents end up. Each signing catalyzes a frenzy of analytical activity as writers from all walks of baseball life attempt to deduce whether or not certain moves made sense or were executed under poor judgment. On occasion, deals can be deemed poor before money even enters the picture, due primarily to the player being below average outside of some shiny stat like home runs or RBIs. On the other hand, there are always plenty of deals that make sense, statistically, but the money does not add up.

For the last month or so, Dave and I have used statistical analysis as well as economic concepts to determine the fair market value for several players. Essentially, we have been working to determine what a player is worth, relative to a replacement level player, while factoring in the going rate of dollars per win, inflation, and a potential discount rate for multi-year deals. There is no better way to evaluate a contract from a context-neutral standpoint then to combine offense and defense and determine wins above replacement.

Unfortunately, as Rob Neyer pointed out in a post yesterday revolving around my article on Gil Meche’s worth, baseball does not exist inside of a vacuum, and context is very real. Rob’s point, with which I firmly agree, is that even though Meche has statistically been worth over the average annual value of his current contract, the deal is still poor when the context of the Kansas City Royals is taken into account. As in, is that $11 mil/yr really worth increasing the win total from 71 to 73?

This idea of context is extremely important, because the price of increasing from 71 to 73 wins is vastly different than an improvement of two wins from 91 to 93. The difference, realistically, involves the playoffs. That 93-win team may now play into October whereas, with 91 wins, they would have fallen just short. Therefore, it would make more sense for teams in this situation to pay a higher fee per win than the 71-73 win team. Perhaps they value wins at a rate of $7-7.5 mil as opposed to $4.8-5 mil. Along similar lines, the team with the win total in the 70s may be inclined so as to value players at a rate of $3-3.5 mil/win. With regards to Meche, Rob’s point boiled down to the fact that even though Meche is worth about $12.4 mil right now, he is not worth that much to the Royals, with their payroll and attendance struggles, as well as their inability to make the playoffs, or even the .500 mark.

Our analyses here generally tend not to discuss context, as we merely look at the fair market value of a player, regardless of where he signs, perhaps to serve as a benchmark. If Meche were a free agent right now, he would be worth 12.5-13.8 mil, depending on whether or not he signed a one- or multi-year deal. If he were a free agent today, worth a projected 2.75 wins above replacement, it would make sense for a team on the cusp of making the playoffs to “overpay” his worth to increase their chances. It would not make sense, however, for a team like the Royals to do the same, given that they would still struggle to even reach the .500 mark.

In an e-mail conversation with Neyer, we arrived at the same conclusion: the issue of an opportunity cost is what this really boils down to; that is, what would happen if the $55 million given to Gil were instead invested into international talent, the amateur draft, or scouting? In that scenario, how many potential wins could be added to the major league team in the five years of Meche’s tenure, or even the year after? For all we know, those investments could have resulted in five players capable of sniffing the +1.5-2.5 win mark. And would the attendance or TV ratings from the past two years be any worse without Meche?

I like Meche, and statistically, he is worth more than the average annual value in his current contract, but I wanted to make it clear that context needs to be included when evaluating a deal in order to be as accurate as possible. It is different determining if an actual signing makes sense compared to simply determining the fair market value. For instance, if we wanted to see if Ryan Dempster was worth his deal, or how much his worth exceeded the value, a similar analysis would need to be run, and the context of the Chicago Cubs would also need to be taken into account. If the goal involved merely determining his fair market value, prior to signing, context is not necessarily as important.

The problem we run into, though, is that even though all dollars/win are not created equally, it is particularly tough to determine the true rates. Are 85-win teams justified in spending $7 mil/win? Are 90-win teams justified in spending $9 mil/win? Are 65-win teams justified in spending anything over $3 mil/win on a single player, given their likely low payroll and the fact that one player would not turn the team around? What are your thoughts on the matter? At what win threshold does it make sense to exceed the general going rate or fall short? Should teams with little shot at contending for several seasons even attempt big deals?

In 2004, Carlos Beltran had a coming out party, of sorts, on the grandest of stages with the Houston Astros. He joined the Drayton Gang earlier in the season as part of a three-team trade, and while he was always highly valued, mashing eight post-season home runs and setting the record for most consecutive playoff games with a home run cemented his superstardom. Following the season, agent Scott Boras and he signed a 7-yr/119 mil deal with the New York Mets, an average annual value of 17 million dollars.

In 2,609 PAs with the Mets from 2005-08, Beltran is hitting .275/.362/.505 with an average of 36 doubles, 29 home runs, and 21 stolen bases. He also plays fantastic defense and is a menace on the basepaths. Bill James and Marcel disagree on his 2009 projection, with James being more optimistic in the form of more plate appearances and a higher wOBA. The godfather of sabermetrics sees Beltran posting a .383 wOBA in 680 PAs, while Marcel is calling for a .368 wOBA in 617 PAs. Weighting the two projections, Beltran’s true talent level is around a .376 wOBA in 649 PAs.

Over the last three seasons, Beltran has posted + – defensive marks of +11, +24, and +24. Weighted, with another year of aging taken into account, we can be comfortable calling him a +20 fielder for 2009, which amounts to +16 runs, and +2.5 more need to be added as a positional adjustment since he is a centerfielder. Before his offense even comes into play, Beltran is worth +18.5 runs compared to an average player.

To determine his offensive contribution, subtract the league average wOBA from his projected mark, divide by 1.15, and multiply that quotient by the number of plate appearances. ((.376-.332)/1.15)*649= 24.8. Therefore, Beltran is worth +24.8, or +25, runs compared to an average player, or about two and a half wins. Add this to the +18.5 from other facets of his play and Beltran, for 2009, is a +43.5 runs above average player. Converted to wins, he is worth 4.35 wins above what an average player would contribute. Then we must add another two wins to establish his mark above replacement level, making him +6.35 wins.

Next, we want to see if he is worth the AAV of 17 mil, so multiply the 6.35 wins by the 5 mil rate of dollars per win. The product is 31 million dollars, meaning that if Carlos were a free agent right now, and signed a 1-yr deal, a fee of 31 mil would be appropriate. Factor in a 10% discount rate for security with a team, and that he has three years remaining on his deal with the Mets, a 3-yr deal at this juncture would be worth 84 mil, an AAV of 28 mil.

A 17-mil/season deal would pay Beltran to be worth 3.4 wins. As we have just seen, right now, he is worth about three full wins more. The Mets are paying him handsomely, but his market value at this moment much greater in terms of salary. Now, Rob Neyer linked here this morning discussing the idea that certain teams can afford to, or should pay more for certain players, based on the payroll and potential success of the team. As in, the Mets increasing their wins total from 92-95 should be worth more money than Meche increasing the Royals from 70-73 wins.

This makes Beltran’s case even more interesting, because the Mets are currently paying him for much less than he is worth on the market today, and the Mets are a team with a payroll, fanbase, and potential success large enough to pay, with merit, more than the 5 mil/win rate. Essentially, they are paying a 6.5 win player money for a 3.5 win player in the context of their team, which could/should pay closer to 6.5-7 mil per win. His offensive numbers may not be as impressive as a few years ago, but he is a dynamite baserunner and arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the game, which adds immense value normally not taken into account.

Following the 2006 season, Gil Meche inked a 5-yr/55 million dollar contract with the Kansas City Royals. The deal underwent immediate scrutiny due to Meche’s below average performance throughout the previous few seasons. His ERA ranged from 4.48 to 5.09, with an FIP entrenched in the 4.60-4.70 area. Simply put, an average annual value of 11 million dollars did not seem appropriate for someone with his credentials. Perhaps Dayton Moore, who apparently goes by the nickname DMGM, knew what he was doing, because Meche has established himself as a solid and consistent pitcher over the past two seasons.

2007: 34 GS, 216.0 IP, 6.50 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 2.52 K/BB, 4.02 FIP
2008: 34 GS, 210.1 IP, 7.83 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 2.51 K/BB, 3.61 FIP

His walk rate rose a bit this past season, but his WHIP remained in the same general vicinity as 2007, and his FIP improved by almost a half-run, all the while repeating his durability. So, the 55-million dollar question then becomes is he worth the 11 mil per season? As in, if Meche were a free agent right now, what would an appropriate contract look like? To figure out the answer, we turn to the ever familiar dollar valuation formula that Dave and I have used here recently.

For starters, we need to see what Meche is projected to do in 2009. Bill James and Marcel disagree, both in innings logged and FIP, with James calling for more innings and Marcel projecting a lower FIP. Averaging the projections, Meche in 2009 would pitch 199 innings with a 4.18 FIP. His value would be how this compares to a replacement level pitcher. For a starting pitcher, replacement level FIP is set at 5.50. Unfortunately, a replacement level starter would not be left out there for 200 innings. Instead, he would amass somewhere around 150 innings. The remaining 49 innings would be logged by a reliever. For bullpen hurlers, replacement FIP is 4.50.

Replacement SP:    150 IP  5.50 FIP  92 runs
Replacement RP:     49 IP  4.50 FIP  25 runs
Replacement Total: 199 IP            117 runs

Meche, with a 4.18 FIP in 199 innings, would be responsible for 92 runs. Conveniently enough, this cancels out with the 92 runs surrendered by the replacement starter, meaning Meche’s value above replacement level is +25 runs. Converted to wins, Meche would be worth 2.5 wins. Then, factor in that Meche is taking innings away from the bullpen, and I’m comfortable adding another quarter-win, bringing the total to 2.75 wins.

Last year, the average dollar figure per win was around 4.5-4.75 million dollars. With inflation, I’ll call this year’s amount a firm 5 million per win. 2.75 wins multiplied by 5 million dollars per win amounts to 13.8 million dollars. That is, if Meche were a free agent right now and signed a 1-yr deal, 13.8 million dollars would be an appropriate fee. For multi-year deals, we usually factor in a 10% discount rate, since players tend to sacrifice a bit of their monetary value for some security. With that in mind, a 3-yr deal for Meche would come out to 37.3 million dollars. A 5-yr deal would be valued at 62.1 million dollars.

Meche may not have seemed worth the money back in 2006, but as of right now, his average annual value would be somewhere around 12.4 million dollars, above the 11 mil in his actual contract.

Much has been discussed over the last few days regarding the lists I have brought forth involving single-game WPAs exceeding 1.0, as well as the top performances of the year via the same win probability metric. I wanted to clear something up: just because Jon Lester‘s and Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitters do not show up in the top ten, does not mean that these games were inferior to those on the list. To truly determine which games were the best, something as simple as the Game Score would be just fine. The point of the previous posts, though, was to show interesting occurrences of WPA and which performances in 2008 added the most wins to a team.

Some great points evolved in the comments thread of the two-part series evaluating the top ten pitching WPA performances of the season. It is very difficult for a pitcher to post a single-game WPA above 1.0, counting only pitching, unless he manages to log 12+ innings. As we saw last night, of the 13 pitchers to accrue a WPA above 1.0 since 1974, only two featured pitchers logging under 8.2 innings. In fact, one threw 10.2, two threw 11, and five threw 13!

Mark Mulder’s 2005 game was mentioned in the thread as well; in that game, Mulder tossed a 10-inning complete game shutout. He only managed to amass a 0.832 WPA, leading us to wonder which pitchers have come closest in recent history. Was Mulder the closest? Below are the top ten WPA performances from 2000-2008:

Roy Halladay    9/6/03   10 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  5 K   0.936 WPA
AJ Burnett      6/26/05   9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB,  7 K   0.904 WPA
Jason Schmidt   5/18/04   9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K   0.856 WPA
Brad Penny      4/4/02    9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB,  3 K   0.834 WPA
Al Leiter       4/18/02   9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB,  8 K   0.834 WPA
Johan Santana   8/12/05   9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  9 K   0.834 WPA
Mark Mulder     4/23/05  10 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB,  5 K   0.832 WPA
Steve Trachsel  5/6/00    9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K   0.818 WPA
Brad Radke      9/17/00   9 IP, 8 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  4 K   0.815 WPA
Curt Schilling  6/7/07    9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB,  4 K   0.811 WPA

All of these were complete-game shutouts, with Schilling and Schmidt coming within pitches of a no-hitter. Schilling’s game was the one during which he shook off Jason Varitek before surrendering his lone hit at the end of the game. Mulder’s 2005 game may be the most recent wherein a pitcher logged ten or more innings while shutting the opponent out, but Halladay did the same thing two years earlier, earning about a full tenth of a win more than Mulder.

What happens when we incorporate the Game Score? Looking at the top game scores from 2000-2008, Schmidt’s performance in 2004 ranked ninth, with a 97 GSC, and Halladay’s 2003 performance ranked 97th. None of the others in the top ten via WPA finished amongst the top 100 game scores this decade. When evaluating single-game performances, the game score is likely the best way to do so, or at least the WPA/LI, but it is nevertheless interesting to see which games brought with them the most added wins to a team.

This morning, we took a lot at a good portion of the 38 instances since 1974 during which a hitter amassed a WPA total exceeding one full win in a single game. While 38 might not seem like a whole heck of a lot of instances, it is nearly three times the amount of like-games for pitchers. Since 1974, which I will forevermore refer to as “the Fangraphs era,” only 13 pitchers have been able to add one or more wins to their team in one game. Interestingly enough, all 13 of these games occurred 1974 and 1986, meaning nobody has done so in over twenty seasons.

Seven of the pitchers to accomplish this rare feat were starters, meaning the remaining six did so out of the bullpen. Even though the starter/reliever designation was virtually split amongst this group, the least amount of innings pitched is 6.1, and five pitchers threw 13-inning complete games. Now it might make more sense as to why nobody has been able to do this since 1986, with pitchers rarely even reaching the 7-inning mark these days. Here are the relief outings:

Juan Agosto    5/18/84     7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K  1.01 WPA
Gary Serum     9/17/77   6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K  1.05 WPA
Claude Osteen  9/11/74   9.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K  1.14 WPA
Dave Tobik     6/9/82    8.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K  1.17 WPA
Len Barker     9/17/77   9.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K  1.17 WPA
Dick Tidrow    8/25/76  10.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K  1.27 WPA

In case you have not noticed, Serum and Barker managed to be worth more than one win on the same exact day; while only thirteen pitchers have done this over the last 30+ years, two did so at the same time. And the starters:

Wilbur Wood     5/7/74   11 IP,  2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 K  1.03 WPA   
Bert Blyleven   8/27/75  11 IP,  6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K  1.05 WPA
Jim Colborn     9/27/74  13 IP,  8 H, 0 ER, 6 BB,  9 K  1.05 WPA
Frank Tanana    9/22/75  13 IP,  6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 13 K  1.13 WPA
Charlie Hough   6/11/86  13 IP,  8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB,  7 K  1.14 WPA
Dave Freisleben 8/4/74   13 IP,  8 H, 0 ER, 3 BB,  7 K  1.15 WPA
Tommy John      9/14/83  13 IP, 13 H, 0 ER, 0 BB,  6 K  1.22 WPA

I think it is pretty safe to say that no starting pitcher, in a game started, will ever reach wins added levels seen above. Hough’s game was the most recent, and it occured over 22 years ago, in the only game listed in this article to involve earned runs allowed. It has been much easier, historically, for a pitcher to record a single-game WPA of -1.0 or below than the inverse, and I see no reason to think this trend will change.

Using the Bill James Game Score, Tanana’s game earned a 105, the second best in the span of 1974-1986. Wood comes in at #6, with Blyleven at #13, and Freisleben at #26. Nobody else fell in the top thirty, leading me to the conclusion that WPA may be interesting to use in terms of seeing how many wins a pitcher added in an individual game, but actually rating the games should be left to the WPA/LI, perhaps, or the Game Score.

In case anybody out there has failed to notice, I have been particularly obsessed this month with WPA and interesting situations involving the metric. We have explored the ten best offensive plays of the season via shifts in win expectancy, the ten best pitching performances via single-game WPA, as well as instances when hitters and pitchers either exceed +1.0 WPA, or fall below -1.0, in a game. When discussing hitters who have been worth one or more wins in a single game, our focus was on Kurt Suzuki and Cody Ross, both of whom accomplished the rare feat in 2008.

There are, however, 35 other players who have done so at one point in their career, and it just felt natural to share these players and their great games. From 1990-2008, 19 players were so great in a single game that they actually contributed more than one win to their team. First, here are the players from the Y2K era:

6/20/08   Kurt Suzuki      1.002 WPA   4-5, 1B, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI
6/7/08    Cody Ross        1.133 WPA   2-4, 1B, HR, BB, SB, 3 RBI
6/29/07   Mark Loretta     1.002 WPA   2-3, 1B, HR, BB, 2 RBI
9/7/05    Ryan Langerhans  1.115 WPA   3-4, 2 1B, 2B, BB, 3 RBI
6/11/04   Todd Helton      1.071 WPA   4-5, 1B, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI
8/24/03   Brandon Inge     1.032 WPA   3-5, 2 1B, HR, SB, 3 RBI
8/21/00   Brian Daubach    1.273 WPA   3-5, 2 1B, HR, 4 RBI
5/10/00   Midre Cummings   1.023 WPA   1-2, HR, 3 RBI

Not exactly your standard list of all stars, eh? Sure, Cody Ross and Brandon Inge have power, and Mark Loretta has been solid offensively his whole career, but outside of Todd Helton this list is not all that impressive. And yet, these eight hitters put together arguably the top single-game performances of the whole decade. To top things off, Daubach’s game in late August of 2000 was over one-tenth of a win better than the next closest player. Did Brian Daubach really have the best game of the decade?

Now, let’s take a trip back to the 1990s, when Alanis Morisette and Hootie and the Blowfish hogged the radio, South Park began its first season, pogs were popular, and people knew who Jon Nunnally was:

4/8/99    Raul Mondesi     1.055 WPA   4-5, 2 1B, 2 HR, BB, 6 RBI
6/13/98   Travis Lee       1.036 WPA   3-5, 1B, 2 HR, 5 RBI
6/10/98   Dante Bichette   1.074 WPA   4-6, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI
9/10/96   Steve Finley     1.063 WPA   4-5, 2 1B, 2B, HR, SB, 3 RBI
9/2/96    Mike Greenwell   1.029 WPA   4-5, 1B, 2B, 2 HR, 9 RBI
8/24/96   Fred McGriff     1.093 WPA   5-5, 2 1B, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI
6/11/94   James Mouton     1.005 WPA   2-4, 2 1B, BB, 2 RBI, 3 SB
8/12/91   Barry Bonds      1.103 WPA   2-4, 2 HR, BB, SB, 4 RBI
5/10/91   Roberto Alomar   1.042 WPA   3-4, 1B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 RBI
4/16/91   Dave Henderson   1.082 WPA   5-6, 2 1B, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI
6/23/90   Dwight Evans     1.147 WPA   3-5, 1B, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Okay, so yes, Dante Bichette’s game was a cycle, let’s clear that up first. And, yes, Mike Greenwell knocked in nine runs on that fateful September 1996 day. Fred McGriff is the only player not to be retired. Also, Dwight Evans, whose game actually led all 1990-1999ers, appears to be the least interesting, at least relative to the stats posted next to the WPA. Which brings me to the next point: Evans’ WPA of 1.147 is 0.126 wins, behind Daubach’s 1.273. Did Brian Daubach really have the best game offensively from 1990-2008!?

Via WPA, which counts certain plate appearances as worth more than others, due to the clutchiness factor built in, it appears so: Brian Daubach had the best offensive game relative to shifts in win expectancy over the last nineteen seasons.

This morning, our topic of discussion involved the bottom half of the top ten pitching performances of 2008, as determined by single-game WPA. As mentioned then, no pitcher accrued an individual game WPA above +1.0 this season, but there were still some absolutely fantastic outings. For posterity’s sake, numbers ten through six were:

10) Bronson Arroyo, 8/26 @ Hou:   0.660 WPA, 9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
9)  Roy Oswalt,     9/6 @ Col:    0.676 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
8)  James Shields,  5/9 vs. LAA:  0.685 WPA, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
7)  Jeff Karstens,  8/6 @ Ari:    0.695 WPA, 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
6)  Matt Cain,      7/24 vs. Was: 0.707 WPA, 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

And here are the top five:

#5: Cliff Lee, 5/12 vs. Toronto
Cliff Lee had a remarkable season. After having to fight for his job in Spring Training, Lee went onto win the 2008 AL Cy Young Award. Without attempting to stir any discussions about Lee/Halladay, his top performance of the year, via WPA, occurred on May 12, against Doc’s team. Lee pitched a complete game shutout, scattering seven hits and two walks over nine innings, striking out five in the process. At the end of the day, Lee was putting the finishing touches on an incredible streak to start the season, earning a 0.715 WPA.

#4: Josh Banks, 5/25 vs. Cincinnati
Jeff Karstens seemed a tad out of place on this list, but at least there are plenty of people who have heard of him. Banks, however, is not well-known, and did not have a very solid 2008 season, yet he somehow managed to harness everything he has into the fourth best performance of the season. For those that do not remember, this 5/25 Padres/Reds game was the one that went 18 innings. Banks pitched six fantastic relief innings, surrendering five hits and no runs to go with two walks and four strikeouts. His work earned him a 0.718 WPA.

#3: Jesse Carlson, 4/16 vs. Texas
Keeping with the theme of relievers earning high WPA marks, Jesse Carlson of the Blue Jays found himself in quite the predicament against the Rangers early in the season. BJ Ryan had blown the save in the ninth inning, and the Rangers were again threatening in the tenth. Brian Wolfe allowed the first three batters to reach base safely, and was lifted in favor of Carlson. Jesse entered into a bases loaded, no outs, situation, and managed to get out of it, recording a “Houdini” in the process. He would pitch two more scoreless innings, limiting the baserunners to one hit and two walks, while striking out four. The Rangers would win the game, but Carlson recorded a 0.721 WPA for his stellar work.

#2: Ben Sheets, 9/6 vs. San Diego
Ben Sheets has always been the guy with the ridiculous “stuff” and potential to be fantastic if he could stay healthy. We got to see a lot of him this year, and he didn’t disappoint, but none of his games were better than the one on September 6. Against the Padres, home at Miller Park, Sheets tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, walking one and fanning seven. His 0.729 WPA for the day placed him second on our list, though quite the distant second behind the best performance of the season.

#1: CC Sabathia, 6/10 vs. Minnesota
How could a list like this not have Sabathia? An eventual teammate of second-place Sheets, Sabathia’s game on June 10 actually occurred before he was sent to Milwaukee. Back when he was a member of the Indians, CC tossed a five-hit, complete game shutout, with no walks and five strikeouts. His single-game WPA, the best of any game for a pitcher this year, was 0.775, significantly better than everyone else on this list.

Nobody may have produced single-game WPAs above +1.0, but it is tough to imagine, after seeing these games, what someone would have to do to accomplish such a feat.

Last night, we took a look at the four games from 2000 or later in which a pitcher accrued a WPA of -1.0 or worse, thereby costing his team one or more wins in a single game. Prior to that, our discussion centered around the brilliant games of Cody Ross and Kurt Suzuki, who, in the span of three weeks managed to become the only two offensive players to post a WPA equal to, or greater than, +1.0 in a single game. Unfortunately, no pitcher in 2008 had a performance good enough to be worth one or more wins, but there were still some fantastic outings. Today, we will examine the ten best pitching performances of 2008, sorted by the WPA earned.

#10: Bronson Arroyo, 8/26 @ Houston
Arroyo might not be an all star but, over the last four years, has been average at worst (-0.12 WPA this year), while logging 200+ innings each season. His BABIP, LOB, BB/9, and WHIP have trended in the downward direction, but even pitchers in the decline phase can toss out a gem here and there. On August 26, in Houston’s bandbox stadium, Arroyo went the distance, earning a complete game, surrendering just five hits and one run, walking two and striking out three. While it may not seem all that amazing, he earned a WPA of 0.660 for his efforts, the tenth most individual game WPA for pitchers this season.

#9: Roy Oswalt, 9/6 @ Colorado
If you thought Arroyo may have had a tough time pitching a gem in Houston, how could Oswalt pull off an even better game in Coors Field? Roy had an interesting season, getting off to an extremely un-Oswalt-like start, before finishing extremely strong, racking up some pretty impressive numbers. His ERA and FIP may have been higher in years past, but his xFIP, which normalizes the home run rate, is actually right in line with these seasons. On September 6, Roy was in the midst of a brilliant streak of games; none, however, were as brilliant as his performance against the Rockies. On the day, he pitched a 9-inning complete game shutout, giving up just one hit, walking two, and striking out six. All told, his individual game WPA of 0.676 takes the ninth spot on our list.

#8: James Shields, 5/9 vs. Los Angeles Anaheim Angels of California
In 2008, James Shields continued to stake claim as the Rays #1 starter with a season very similar to his breakout 2007 campaign. He pitched 215 innings in both years, posted FIP marks between 3.82 and 3.86, ranged from 1.51-1.67 in BB/9, and produced identical .292 BABIPs. On May 9th, home against the Angels—ironically, this is the first home game on our list so far—Shields was so dominant that dominant doesn’t even describe his performance. He tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just one hit. Excellent with control, Shields walked nobody and struck out eight Halos hitters. His WPA? 0.685, good enough for the eighth best pitched game of the season. How could it get better than that you might be thinking, but hold on, we’re moving on up.

#7: Jeff Karstens, 8/6 @ Arizona
I remember a few years back, while working minor league baseball telecasts for CN8, getting to see Jeff Karstens pitch on a regular basis. He always seemed to have the poise and “stuff” that should translate into major league success. Suffice it to say, things have not panned out the way that I, or other Yankees fans, imagined, and Jeff found himself a member of the Pirates in 2008. He did post a 4.03 ERA in his nine starts, but he K/9 was ridiculously low and his 4.77 FIP does a better job of explaining his performance level. Still, in his first two starts, he looked fantastic. On August 1st, he held the Cubs scoreless over six innings, surrendering only five hits. In his next start, against the Diamondbacks, he pitched a two-hit, complete game shutout, with two walks and four strikeouts. Though this game does not feel better than Oswalt’s or Shields’, Karstens earned a WPA of 0.695. Couple that with his 0.360 in the Cubs game, and Jeff was worth over one whole win after his first two starts of the season. A shame it all went downhill from there…

#6: Matt Cain, 7/24 vs. Washington
For those who have followed my writings over the last year and a half or so, you will know that I have some crazy manlove for Matt Cain. I don’t know if it’s due to the criminally low run support he receives, or how dominant he looks most of the time, but I tend to watch all of his starts, which is something I only did (watch starts for non-Phillies players) for Greg Maddux, and Sabathia’s crazy stretch this season. Overall, Cain once more logged 200+ innings of performance under 4.00 in the ERA and FIP department, with a K/BB above 2.0. Unfortunately, he rarely is credited with a win because his team refuses to support him. On July 24, he actually did record a win, pitching a complete game shutout against the Nationals. Cain surrendered just four hits, walked nary a hitter, and fanned four, earning a 0.707 WPA.

Tonight we will continue by examining the five best pitching performances of 2008.

This past weekend, while out watching an absolutely dreadful Eagles game, I found myself explaining WPA and WPA/LI to some friends. They were curious about the site, but perhaps embarrassed to express their lack of knowledge with regards to certain areas. I explained that WPA is basically, as Studes calls it, the story stat: it tracks the positive and negative shifts in win expectancy over the course of a game, and accumulates these measurements for the entire season. The single-game part of the explanation piqued their interest moreso than the overall seasonal total.

“So, in theory, could someone be worth more then one win in a single game?” Bill asked.

Sure, I responded, though as we saw earlier this morning, the instances of such an event are so few and far between that it is pretty remarkable when someone can accomplish such a feat. My friend Ryan then chimed in:

“Could it go the other way, too? Like, could someone technically blow more than one game’s worth of games in a single game?”

I had never really thought about it like that, but I didn’t see why not, given that it is merely the opposite of the aforementioned scenario. I assumed that these instances would also be few and far between, but still existant. Luckily, when David sent me the information regarding players recording a WPA of 1.0+ in a single game, from 1974-2008, he also sent along pitchers who have recorded a WPA of -1.0 or lower in an individual outing.

There have been 26 games over the past 35 years during which a pitcher has cost his team more than one win in a single game; interestingly enough, there have only been 13 games in this same span wherein a pitcher’s WPA met or exceeded +1.0. It’s much easier to be awful.

Just a small number of these games have even taken place recently, as well, with just four occurring between 2000-2007. No pitcher exceeded a +1.0 WPA or fell below a -1.0 WPA in 2008. None at all. The most recent terrible outing took place on June 1, 2007, when Todd Jones of the Tigers blew a save on the road against the Indians. In his three appearances prior to the June 1st outing, Jones had given up five runs in 2.1 innings, without a strikeout, raising his ERA from 2.37 to 4.22 in the process. Clearly, with a WPA below -1.0, things did not improve against the Indians.

Jones would face 12 batters in his one inning of work of June 1, 2007, surrendering seven hits and two walks, en route to five runs and a -1.01 WPA. His ERA skyrocketed from 4.22 to 6.04.

The next most recent game on our list took place almost five years to the day before Jones’ fateful outing. On June 5, 2002, Hideki Irabu made the fifth worst outing since 1974. In his final season, then with the Rangers, Irabu entered in the ninth inning, attempting to preserve the win for Ismael Valdez—who had a stellar game. The Rangers led the Angels, 4-2, but Irabu wanted to make things interesting. After retiring Garret Anderson on three pitches, he gave up back-to-back home runs to Brad Fullmer and Tim Salmon, throwing just one pitch to each hitter.

The game was now tied at four, but the Rangers did score in the top of the tenth to go ahead by a run. Now, Irabu was in line for the blown save win. Adam Kennedy led off the bottom of the tenth with a double, and moved to third on a David Eckstein single. With two on and nobody out, Darin Erstad grounded out, scoring Kennedy in the process. Once again, the game was tied, but this time, the Angels still had a runner on base. Four pitches later, Troy Glaus knocked the ball into the stands to give the Halos a 7-5 victory, and Irabu a -1.21 WPA for his efforts.

The other two games this decade took place in May, and July 2000, respectively. The first saw Jason Isringhausen give up four runs on five hits in 1.1 innings, while the second involved Jeff Brantley getting tagged for three runs on four hits in a mere one-third of an inning. Both outings resulted in a -1.09 WPA. Tomorrow we will take a look at like games that took place prior to 2000, but now you have an interesting trivia question moving forward, in that the game in 2000 or later that cost his team the most in terms of win expectancy involved Hideki Irabu on June 5, 2002.

A few weeks ago, I ran a series here detailing the ten biggest offensive plays of the 2008 season, based on shifts in win expectancy. That is, the ten instances where the team’s probability of winning the game increased the most due to the occurrences in a single plate appearance. David DeJesus, if you recall, took home the honors of producing the top play of the season with his July 12th walkoff home run against Brandon Morrow of the Mariners.

Though several great threads developed in that series of articles, one in particular piqued my interest. This specific commenter wondered if there were any games this season during which a player accrued a WPA over 1.00; as in, was anyone worth one or more wins, in one game? Luckily, Senor Appelman was accomodating with the data, probed from the Fangraphs database, and I now have in my possession every instance from 1974-2008 during which a player’s single-game WPA met or exceeded 1.00. There are only 38 such batting games, but two of them occurred during this very season.

The bigger of the two games took place on June 7, and belonged to Cody Ross of the Florida Marlins. This also happened to the game featuring a walkoff home run from Ross that ended up #4 on the list of the biggest offensive plays of the season. Ross went 2-4 on the day, with a single, the three-run homer, a walk, and a stolen base. All told, his efforts resulted in a 1.13 WPA for the game. Ross had a solid season, especially from a power standpoint, hitting 22 home runs with a .488 SLG and .804 OPS. His seasonal WPA was 1.56, 1.13 of which belonged to this game. Essentially, outside of this game, his positive and negative win advancements amounted to a net of +0.43.

The other such instance took place two weeks later, as Kurt Suzuki of the Oakland Athletics produced to the tune of a 1.00 WPA. Suzuki went 4-5, with a single, two doubles, and a home run, en route to five runs batted in on the day. His overall WPA for the season was -1.61, meaning that outside of this game, his win advancements amounted to a net of -2.61. Even poor offensive players can win a game for their team every now and then, it seems.

Despite Ross’s advantage in the WPA department, when evaluating these two games in terms of run expectancy, the edge shifts to Suzuki. Kurt amassed 4.55 BRAA in this game, good enough for 0.509 wins based on run expectancy. Ross, however, contributed 2.62 BRAA and a 0.258 REW. And there you have it: Cody Ross not only produced the fourth biggest offensive play of the season, but that particular game saw him become one of just 38 players to produce a WPA greater than, or equal to, a full win, in a single game, since 1974; and even though Kurt Suzuki had a very poor season at the plate, he essentially won one whole game for the Athletics back on June 20.