Pitching WPA > 1.0, 1974-2008

This morning, we took a lot at a good portion of the 38 instances since 1974 during which a hitter amassed a WPA total exceeding one full win in a single game. While 38 might not seem like a whole heck of a lot of instances, it is nearly three times the amount of like-games for pitchers. Since 1974, which I will forevermore refer to as “the Fangraphs era,” only 13 pitchers have been able to add one or more wins to their team in one game. Interestingly enough, all 13 of these games occurred 1974 and 1986, meaning nobody has done so in over twenty seasons.

Seven of the pitchers to accomplish this rare feat were starters, meaning the remaining six did so out of the bullpen. Even though the starter/reliever designation was virtually split amongst this group, the least amount of innings pitched is 6.1, and five pitchers threw 13-inning complete games. Now it might make more sense as to why nobody has been able to do this since 1986, with pitchers rarely even reaching the 7-inning mark these days. Here are the relief outings:

Juan Agosto    5/18/84     7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K  1.01 WPA
Gary Serum     9/17/77   6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K  1.05 WPA
Claude Osteen  9/11/74   9.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K  1.14 WPA
Dave Tobik     6/9/82    8.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K  1.17 WPA
Len Barker     9/17/77   9.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K  1.17 WPA
Dick Tidrow    8/25/76  10.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K  1.27 WPA

In case you have not noticed, Serum and Barker managed to be worth more than one win on the same exact day; while only thirteen pitchers have done this over the last 30+ years, two did so at the same time. And the starters:

Wilbur Wood     5/7/74   11 IP,  2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 K  1.03 WPA   
Bert Blyleven   8/27/75  11 IP,  6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K  1.05 WPA
Jim Colborn     9/27/74  13 IP,  8 H, 0 ER, 6 BB,  9 K  1.05 WPA
Frank Tanana    9/22/75  13 IP,  6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 13 K  1.13 WPA
Charlie Hough   6/11/86  13 IP,  8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB,  7 K  1.14 WPA
Dave Freisleben 8/4/74   13 IP,  8 H, 0 ER, 3 BB,  7 K  1.15 WPA
Tommy John      9/14/83  13 IP, 13 H, 0 ER, 0 BB,  6 K  1.22 WPA

I think it is pretty safe to say that no starting pitcher, in a game started, will ever reach wins added levels seen above. Hough’s game was the most recent, and it occured over 22 years ago, in the only game listed in this article to involve earned runs allowed. It has been much easier, historically, for a pitcher to record a single-game WPA of -1.0 or below than the inverse, and I see no reason to think this trend will change.

Using the Bill James Game Score, Tanana’s game earned a 105, the second best in the span of 1974-1986. Wood comes in at #6, with Blyleven at #13, and Freisleben at #26. Nobody else fell in the top thirty, leading me to the conclusion that WPA may be interesting to use in terms of seeing how many wins a pitcher added in an individual game, but actually rating the games should be left to the WPA/LI, perhaps, or the Game Score.