I can’t believe it.

As a baseball analyst on several highly trafficked websites, it is important to stay objective when covering the whole league. I know there have been several times when I have broken from this mold to show love for my Philadelphia Phillies, and I have to say this is probably the best sports moment of my life. I always wondered what it would be like to have a team you devote so much of yourself to, to come away with a championship, and to be honest, my eyes were teary for several minutes following that 0-2 slider to Eric Hinske.

First, I don’t care about the viewing audience of this World Series, as several writers have discussed. This was a very fun series of baseball to watch, as was this entire post-season. This game five was quite unconventional, but it made for one entertaining three and a half innings of baseball. Ryan Madson did not want to know whether or not he would be “starting,” instead hoping that he would get his call via the bullpen phone in order to keep his normal routine in order. Geoff Jenkins experienced an extremely reduced role following an injury and had not seen consistent playing time in several months. He comes up and smacks a 3-2 double to right-centerfield to kick things off.

Jimmy Rollins bunts him over and Jayson Werth singles him in on a popup that narrowly missed Akinori Iwamura’s glove. Then, somehow Rocco Baldelli muscled that Madson fastball over the left-field wall, a point at which my hope began to diminish. JC Romero then managed to induce a BJ Upton double play and a Carlos Pena flyout before Pat Burrell, hitless in 13 World Series at bats, barely misses a home run, instead settling for a double. After that, Pedro Feliz, of all people, knocks in what amounted to be the game-winning run.

Even when Brad Lidge came in, my breath still had to be held. He may have been “perfect” in save opportunities, but as those who follow the team know, his saves never tend to be easy or stress free. When Evan Longoria popped out, my confidence increased exponentially, but the Fernando Perez stolen base helped cancel some of that out. With a runner on second, and one out, I swore Ben Zobrist’s line drive was going to fall in, as my heart nearly stopped. Two outs. In steps Eric Hinske, who absolutely demolished a home run in his previous World Series at bat.

As he swung over the 0-2 slider, I did not know how to react. I knew I was happy, but the emotions inside me did not manifest themselves in the form of jumping up and down or streaking up and down my elderly neighborhood. I smiled. I laughed. My eyes became teary for a bit. I finally got to see the team I pull for the most win a championship. Pat Burrell likely won’t be back, and who knows what will happen with Jamie Moyer, or whether some of the players currently on the roster will return or not, but regardless, this team has firmly entrenched itself as one of the best the city has seen, and it is a great feeling.

Congratulations to both the Rays and Phillies for reaching this juncture, and I can only hope these two meet again in October sometime soon.

The Cincinnati Reds may have struggled to compete over the last several seasons, but there were still several bright spots. One of these positives was the right arm of ace Aaron Harang. A former Athletics prospect, Harang emerged as a durable and extremely effective pitcher for the Reds, compiling some of the best numbers in the senior circuit from 2005-07. In that span, he made 32+ starts each year and amassed a minimum of 211.2 innings pitched. His K/9 rose from 6.93 to 8.47, while his BB/9 with intentional walks removed dropped from 2.04 to 1.80 before settling in at 1.90 in 2007.

Harang’s WHIP of 1.27 in 2005-06 dropped to 1.14 in 2007, and his strand rate ranged from 73.8%-74.6%, three marks well above average. Additionally, his ERA decreased from 3.83 to 3.73. Unfortunately for Harang, his HR/9 rose from 0.94 to 1.09, and his FIP “rose” from 3.67 to 3.71. In 2005-06, his FIP was better than the ERA, however in 2007, they were essentially identical. Regardless, it is hard to argue that he seemed on the verge of several all star berths as one of the best righthanded pitches in the National League.

This season, however, he suffered a setback. In 30 games, 29 of which were starts, he only tossed 184.1 innings, and experienced worse numbers pretty much across the board. His K/9 decreased by one full strikeout to 7.47, while his unintentional walk rate rose to 2.20. This increase in walks, coupled with a .317 BABIP resulted in a 1.38 WHIP, his highest in any full season. Additionally, his 4.78 ERA and 4.79 FIP were significantly worse than anything over the previous four seasons. How did this happen? Well, it’s easy to point to a lack of luck, but was that really the case?

Harang’s HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.71, way up from the 1.09 in 2007, so perhaps his performance really was the result of bad luck. Unfortunately, his dropoff in strikeouts also contributed to the higher FIP, as his walk rate did not necessareily rise that much. The .317 BABIP, as well, while much higher than average, is actually in the same range as his marks in 2004-06, when he was able to produce quality seasons, and his strand rate of 73.6% is not only above average but right in line with his 2005-07 rates. And even though the HR/9 rose to 1.71, his HR/FB was just 13.9%; while 13.9% is definitely above the average of 10-11%, it was not as if this rate soared to 17-20% or anything along those lines. One way to check if poor luck with regard to the home run aspect of controllable skills affects the FIP is to look at the normalized version of the metric. Via The Hardball Times, Harang’s xFIP was 4.38, meaning yes, he was a bit unlucky, but still significantly worse than 2005-07.

This past season saw his highest percentage of flyballs in a full season at 44%, so he threw more balls in the air, and a higher percentage than usual left the park. This should regress moving forward, but the dropoff in strikeouts does signal some sense of a dropoff. He lost some velocity on the fastball, but nothing drastic enough to claim a large role in the much poorer 2008 campaign. Is Harang as bad as he performed in 2008? No, not by a longshot, but there was a serious performance decline here that cannot be chalked up solely as bad luck, which could have to do with some type of injury, or could signal the start of his decline. He will likely be much better next season, but the potential award winner from 2005-07 may be gone for good.

Over the summer, I wrote a post discussing the idea that Javier Vazquez is the most disappointing pitcher in baseball. Sure, he has had success, and he always has exhibited great stuff and the potential to dominate, but something is missing. After eleven seasons in the big leagues, he has proven himself capable of being productive, but nowhere near the award-winning caliber of production that so many analysts saw in him for a while. His controllable skills and peripheral statistics are always very good, but they just do not seem to translate into extremely solid measures of run-prevention.

Consider this: from 2000-2008, there are only six starting pitchers who made at least 190 starts, with a K/9 above 8.0 and a BB/9 below 3.0, and Vazquez has the highest inclusive ERA of them all at 4.11. For good measure, the others are: Pedro Martinez (2.99), Randy Johnson (3.25), Jake Peavy (3.25), Roger Clemens (3.34), and Josh Beckett (3.78). Something tells me that Vazquez does not exactly belong in the same conversation as these other five all stars and/or future hall of famers. Regardless, the fact remains that he has always been able to strikeout plenty of batters, routinely fanning around, if not more than 200 a season, while vastly limiting his walks.

He has made 32+ starts for nine consecutive seasons, surpassing 200 innings in all but one of those years, when he amassed 198 innings with the Yankees in 2004. In fact, he leads the aforementioned six pitchers in innings pitched by a great margin, trails only Johnson in total strikeouts and complete games, and is virtually tied with Pedro with a 2.24 BB/9; Pedro’s was 2.16, so not much of a difference.

These controllable skills translate into very nice FIP marks throughout his career, but Javy’s ERA consistently exceeds his FIP. And, when his ERA is technically lower than the FIP, it is much closer to being the same than definitively better. This season was no different than many years past, as Vazquez started 33 games, threw for 208.1 innings, posted an 8.64 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9, with a 4.67 ERA and 3.74 FIP. Now, his BABIP rose to .328 this season, from .297 in 2007, which increased his WHIP to 1.32, the highest it has been since 1999. Couple that with a well below average strand rate of 68% and we see that he allowed many more baserunners and was not able to prevent them scoring at the league average rate.

He is generally about even when it comes to percentages of groundballs and flyballs, and he has not lost any velocity on his pitches. In fact, he has actually gained velocity on some offspeed deliveries. Javy’s WPA/LI pegs him at a bit over nine wins above average for his career, and since 2000, he has been above average in that regard in all but one season, which was not the 2004 season with the Yankees. Instead, the following season, his 2005 campaign with the Diamondbacks is considered below average via context-neutral wins.

Vazquez signed a three-year extension that will keep him under contract until 2010, earning $11.5 mm. This appears to be who he really is, and the potential tag should be all but gone by now, which is very disappointing given how durable and effective he seems capable of being. I asked before and I’ll reprise my question: is there any pitcher in recent history as frustrating and/or disappointing as Javier Vazquez? To clarify, I am talking about pitchers that have been virtually as durable as him and not frustrating in the sense that Kerry Wood and Mark Prior have been frustrating and disappointing. Instead, someone who has been out there all the time, has the potential to dominate, still posts great peripherals, but just seems to be missing something from pushing him over the top.

Entering yesterday’s Game Five between the Phillies and Rays, Cole Hamels had pitched brilliantly in four straight post-season starts, and could have become the first pitcher in the Wild Card era to win all five of his playoff starts. Due to the nasty weather conditions, it is unlikely for him to reach this feat, but he could still pull it off if the Phillies take the lead in the bottom of the sixth inning and hold on for the victory. Sure, it would be quite the odd win, but regardless of whether or not he records a decision, his post-season has been extremely stellar.

In five starts, he scattered 23 hits over 35 innings, walking 9, striking out 30, and surrendering just two home runs. All told, he produced a 1.80 ERA, 3.33 K/BB, 0.91 WHIP, and a 2.92 FIP. While he has pitched beautifully and basically provided a guarantee that the Phillies would win or, at the very least, stay in the ballgame, he is not alone in post-season dominance this decade. From 2000-2007, I found five other post-seasons that either matched or surpassed Hamels in 2008.

In 2001, we saw a pair of amazing performances from the Diamondbacks dynamic duo of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. In six starts, Schilling posted the following: 48.1 IP, 25 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 56 K. Those numbers resulted in a miniscule 1.12 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, a 9.33 K/BB, and a 1.98 FIP. Teammate Johnson appeared in six games, five of which were starts, putting together the following line: 41.1 IP, 25 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 47 K. His 5.88 K/BB is fantastic but actually pales in comparison to Schilling’s, as do his 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His FIP of 2.06 comes strikingly close, however. It is no wonder the Diamondbacks were able to win the World Series.

In 2003, Andy Pettitte put together a tremendous line, even though the Yankees ended up losing the World Series to the Florida Marlins. Pettitte, in five starts, produced a 2.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.09 K/BB, and 3.24 FIP. Josh Beckett, then a member of the series winning Marlins, put together even better post-season numbers: a 2.11 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 3.92 K/BB, and 2.67 FIP in 42.2 innings assembled over five starts.

Beckett further cemented himself as arguably the best playoff pitcher in recent history, if not ever, with his line in 2007 as a member of the Red Sox: 4 GS, 30 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 35 K. Yes, Beckett produced a K/BB of 17.50, almost doubling Schilling’s overly impressive ratio from 2001. Beckett posted a 1.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and an astounding 1.42 FIP, which is actually lower than that of others before adding the 3-3.20 ERA normalizing number. Hamels may have just put the finishing touches on a brilliant post-season, but let’s not forget that there have been other absolutely tremendous performances. Which do you think was the best? Beckett in 2007, or Schilling in 2001?

This season has been quite the rollercoaster for me, considering I never thought in a thousand years that I would bare witness to the team I root for taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series. Clearly, the dominance of Cole Hamels, tonight’s game five starter, has loomed large in the team reaching this juncture, but the work of their relief corps has been outstanding, and is another reason why they find themselves in a series-clinching game tonight. The bullpen of the Phillies was extremely solid all season long, posting one of the lowest ERAs in baseball while simultaneously producing one of the best FIPs. And, as mentioned last week, they threw the lowest percentage of fastballs of any bullpen in baseball, relying almost equally on offspeed pitches.

Against the Brewers, in the NLDS, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, Chad Durbrin, JC Romero, Scott Eyre, and Clay Condrey allowed four earned runs in 10 innings of work. The sextet walked just three batters while striking out nine. The 3.60 ERA and 3.00 K/BB were both impressive, but they did allow 13 hits, as Durbin and Eyre combined to give up 6 hits in 1.2 innings. The big three of Lidge, Madson, and Romero, however, combined for: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.

The Phillies won the series three games to one and moved onto play the Dodgers. JA Happ joined the previously mentioned six relievers in dominating the opposition, as the bullpen allowed just two earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. All told, their numbers were: 18.2 IP, 13 H, 2 ER, 12 BB, 17 K. The walks and strikeouts could be much better, but next to nobody scored in their appearances, as they produced an ERA below 1.00. The big three scattered six hits over 11.2 innings, walking six and striking out 13, all while stranding every baserunner that reached. Through the first two series tiers, the Phillies bullpen had posted the following numbers: 28.2 IP, 26 H, 6 ER, 15 BB, 26 K.

They then moved onto the World Series, to take on the Rays, who themselves had an extremely solid bullpen in the regular season. They had not been as stellar in the DS and CS, but had balance and depth that most other teams lacked. While they have faltered to some degree through four World Series games, the Phillies relievers have continued to flourish. Happ and Condrey have not seen action, but Lidge, Madson, Romero, Eyre, and Durbin have combined for 8.2 innings in which only one earned run has scored. Only two Rays batters have recorded hits off of this quintet, who suddenly stopped walking hitters. All told, they have walked one batter while striking out 12.

In the Division Series, the Phillies had decent K/BB numbers, but their ERA was higher than they would have liked. In the Championship Series, they drastically reduced the ERA, but their K/BB numbers got much worse. In the World Series, so far, they have put everything together, coupling a Bob Gibson-esque ERA with a Pedro Martinez circa 1999-2000 K/BB ratio. Having confidence in a bullpen can reduce the stress on a manager to make the decision of whether or not to keep a starter in the game, and the Phillies bullpen has done everything possible to earn this confidence. Will they all be this good next season? Who knows, but what is certainly clear is that if they can sustain their performances for at least one more game, they could end their season on the highest of high notes.

The goal of an ideal bullpen is to relieve the starting pitcher and effectively shut the opposition down to the point that they stand no chance of coming back. We hear so often the idea that playoff spots are won and lost in the bullpen, and from reading numerous blogs, one might think that 26 of the 30 major league teams have “the worst bullpen in baseball.” In my eyes, the best type of reliever is one who limits his walks, gives up as few home runs as possible, and strikes out as many batters as he can. These are the controllable skills for a pitcher, or, in other words, game outcomes that have nothing to do with the defense. Which bullpen comes closest to this ideal reliever? Well, with the update to the team pages here at Fangraphs, we now have the capability to check.

For starters, which relief corps posted the best strikeout rates? The Cubs (8.68), Yankees (8.66), and Dodgers (8.62) vastly stood out from the rest in this category. The impressive Rays bullpen came in fourth place at 8.03, narrowly ahead of the Reds at 7.97. At the bottom of the league were the Pirates (6.45), Orioles (6.80), Tigers (6.83), Rangers (6.85), and Cardinals (6.87). The Cardinals may have stuck around for a while in the playoff picture, but their season was not as statistically sound as the results would indicate. And I don’t think anyone will argue that the Pirates, Orioles, and Rangers have very poor pitching staffs, or that the Tigers were an all-around disappointment this season.

When we move to walks, we see that the Dodgers (3.22) once again find themselves in the top five, at the number one spot, but their “colleagues” are different. The DBacks come in second at 3.24, followed by the Twins at 3.26, White Sox at 3.31, and Indians at 3.33, meaning that the bullpens that struck out plenty of batters were not too tremendous at limiting walks. At the bottom of the heap we once again find the Orioles, Rangers, Pirates, and Tigers, with the Mariners now mixed in. See any trend emerging?

Moving to K/BB ratio, we get a mixture of the K/9 and BB/9 leaders, as the Dodgers (2.68) lead the Cubs (2.57) and Yankees (2.46), with the White Sox (2.38) and Diamondbacks (2.32) rounding out the top five. Guess who is at the bottom? Yes, the Orioles, Tigers, Pirates, Rangers, and new-found friend the Mariners. The Orioles bullpen had an ugly 1.40 K/BB. The Mariners at least registered a K/9 above 7.0, they just had issues limiting walks.

How about home runs? The Phillies, whose bullpen has been lauded for the entire season, finally break into the top five, finishing first with a 0.69 HR/9. Led by Brad Lidge and his unsustainable 3.9% HR/FB, the Phils narrowly edged the Blue Jays (0.70), the familiar Dodgers (0.73), and the Mariners and Athletics (0.78 each). When we put it all together, in the form of FIP, the ERA equivalent of controllable skills, the Dodgers led by a wide margin over all others at 3.47.

The Yankees, Phillies, and Blue Jays then ranged from 3.82-3.85. Controllable skills are not the only measure of success, but they are very important, and nobody realistically came close to the Dodgers in 2008. The Blue Jays did have a big ERA and FIP differential, as they posted the lowest bullpen WHIP at 1.25 and highest bullpen LOB rate at 79.8%. Their FIP of 3.85 suggests their 2.94 ERA was a bit lower than expected, but elite relievers are known for being able to consistently post high strand rates, low BABIPs, and other luck-based indicators that tend to normalize for starters. Based on these results, it seems the best controllable skills in the NL belong to the Dodgers bullpen, while the Yankees and Blue Jays topped the junior circuit.

For those unaware, David revamped the team pages today to provide some incredibly useful information for readers and researchers. Now, by clicking the link at the top of the page, you can sort the same statistics found on the league leaderboards for individual teams, as well as sort the overall team totals in several different categories. With the dominant bullpens of the Phillies and Rays, on display in Game One of the World Series last night, in mind, I decided to take a look at the pitch repertoires and frequencies for the bullpens of each team to see how they stacked up.

The Phillies bullpen threw an aggregate 52.5% fastballs, the lowest amount of any bullpen. Their relief corps of Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin, rely moreso on offspeed pitches than all others. On the flipside, the Texas Rangers throw 69.5% fastballs, by far the most. As Dave noted earlier, perhaps a lower percentage of fastballs could help their 5.51 bullpen ERA moving forward.

The Padres bullpen threw the slowest fastball, on average, at 89.9 mph, with the White Sox leading the league at 92.5 mph. The White Sox led very narrowly over the Red Sox and Diamondbacks, both at 92.4 mph, and the Tigers at 92.3 mph. Matt Thornton is the only White Sox reliever in the top ten in the junior circuit, though Bobby Jenks does join him in the top thirty. The Red Sox, however, have Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, and David Aardsma in the top thirty.

The Cubs threw sliders most often, at 33.1%, while the Orioles threw 11.6% curveballs, the highest frequency of any team. Moving to changeups, the Cardinals ‘pen threw them just 3.1% of the time, while the Royals threw at a percentage over five times higher, at 16%. And, lastly, the Angels and Royals led in splitter frequency, both chiming in under 5%.

No team threw 10%+ for four different pitchers, with the Rays and Rangers coming closest. The Rays threw 66.4% fastballs, 14.8% sliders, 8.6% curveballs, and 9.1% changeups. The Rangers threw 69.5% fastballs, 11.9% sliders, 7.5% curveballs, and 8.0% changeups. Both teams rely moreso on the fastball than anything else, but they did come closest to throwing four pitches ten percent or more of the time. This is just one of the neat things we are now able to do with the updated team pages.

The setup man for the Phillies, otherwise known as “The Bridge to Lidge,” is the 6’6″ righty Ryan Madson. A minor league starting pitching prospect, Madson jumped onto the scene in 2004 and made quite a splash as a rookie reliever. In 52 games and 77 innings, Madson posted a 2.34 ERA and 3.57 FIP, to go along with a 2.89 K/BB and 1.13 WHIP. In 2005, his ERA jumped to 4.14, but his 3.92 FIP suggested he was a bit unlucky. His BABIP rose from .277 to .305 and his strand rate dropped from 82% to 71%. His K/BB ratio improved, however, to 3.16.

In 2006, he had a poor season, with a 5.69 ERA and 4.95 FIP, meaning he was unlucky, but still much worse than his freshman and sophomore campaigns. Madson made 17 starts that season to go along with 33 relief appearances, raising his innings pitched total to 134.1, but his 1.68 WHIP and high rate stats were largely due to an abnormally high .358 BABIP. That regressed in 2007, when he posted a 3.05 ERA in 38 games before missing the end of the year with injuries. His FIP was 4.20, though, primarily due to his reduced strikeout rate and elevated walk rate. Those numbers normalized this season, when he posted an identical 3.05 ERA but a 3.33 FIP.

What’s interesting about Madson is that, since being permanently given the eighth inning role towards the latter part of the season, he has become a flamethrower. For those of you reading this that watched the NLDS, NLCS, or Game 1 of the World Series, and saw Madson throwing 95+ mph, this is not the Ryan Madson that Phillies fans like myself have come to know. Don’t get me wrong, he has been a solid enough reliever in the past, but he normally threw somewhere around 90-93 mph, with a tremendous changeup and the occasional slider. This year, he increased his average fastball velocity to somewhere around 93.5 mph, but that pales in comparison to his current velocity.

Suddenly, Madson is regularly registering 96 mph on the radar gun. Initially, I thought that FOX was just being generous, but the Pitch F/X data says that Madson really is throwing harder. In the eighth inning last night, he averaged around 96 mph on the fastball, even though his average for the season was 92 mph. Regardless of how he is doing it, this “new” Ryan Madson looks better than ever, and he is steadily inching towards that area in which Phillies fans have supreme confidence that he will get the job done. Most of the discussions focusing on the Phillies bullpens deals with Brad Lidge, but Ryan Madson did a heck of a job in the regular season and has been dominant in the playoffs.

Our look at the free agent class of 2009 ends with a trip to Jeterville, AKA shortstop, a position once filled with some of the best offensive and defensive players in the sport. The players about to hit the market have a similar theme amongst themselves: unusually good or bad seasons in certain regards that are bound to regress moving forward. We have two of the top ten fielders at the position in 2008, as well as a player who is used to topping everyone in fielding at the position. Additionally, there are a few players that should not be playing the demanding position anymore as well as two players with seasons on offense moving in different directions.

The youngest of the group is Cesar Izturis, who, in 135 games with the Cardinals produced a -1.71 WPA/LI on the heels of a .263/.319/.309 line. His OPS has been fairly consistent over the past three seasons meaning he just is not very valuable on offense. His defense, however, earned him the #4 spot at the position this season, at +19 plays above average. At 29 years old, Izturis could realistically sign a two or three year deal somewhere, based on his defense, but his offense could be a very big problem. If there is anything he can take away regarding his offensive production this season it would be that his walk rate was higher than ever before.

The elder statesman of the group is Omar Vizquel, who, at 42 years old, still has “it” in the field. In 92 games, Omar was +9 plays above average defensively, good for eighth at the position. He has a 5.2 mm option on his contract for next season, but can be bought out for $ 300,000. If the Giants choose to move in a younger direction, which I thought was the reason for not bringing Barry Bonds back, and buy Vizquel out, I would hope he hangs up his glove rather than stick around until his only solid skill deteriorates. Offensively, he was worth over two wins less than an average player, so defense is all he has left.

Aside from these two, the remaining seven players range from 30-34 years old. Juan Uribe is 30, and spent most of this season at third base due to Joe Crede’s injuries, but was a +3 and a -7 at shortstop in 2006 and 2007. He also ranged from 16-23 home runs from 2004-07, before hitting just 7 this season. At .247/.296/.386, Uribe had a WPA/LI of -0.66, which, coupled with his declining fielding skills, just does not make him a very attractive commodity. I would expect him to have a job next season, but as more of a platoon player or pinch-hitter/defensive replacement on an NL team.

Rafael Furcal is 31, and is going to get a big payday, even though his ridiculously productive 36 regular season games are a very small sample and largely unsustainable. He hit .357/.439/.573, and was worth almost 1.5 wins above average despite playing in April and then the final week of September. His .217 ISO was the highest it has ever been, but his numbers were built upon a .380 BABIP, which will not repeat. Defensively, the injuries have hurt him recently, but he was the definition of league average this season. In the previous two seasons, however, he registered a +4 and +6. Expect him to land a big 4-yr deal, with the offense declining and the defense impoving.

Adam Everett, 32, is everyone’s favorite saber-darling, since his average or below average offense is more than made up for by his incredible defense. In 2006, the guy was +41 plays above average. That fell to +18 in 2007, before this season’s -1 in Minnesota. He played just 48 games, but it is somewhat clear that his fielding skills are not what they once were. If he cannot get back to that +10 to +15 range, he will not be worth much.

At 33 years old we have Alex Cora and Edgar Renteria, one valued for his defense and leadership and another coming off of an extremely disappointing season. Cora was a -3 in the field and about a half-win less effective offensively than an average hitter. With a .270/.371/.349 line, it is clear that Cora has the ability to hit and get on base, but he does not combine that with any semblance of power. Renteria has seen his ISO fall from .144 to .111 over the last three seasons, a mark not much higher than Cora’s .079. A .270/.317/.382 line might be acceptable if you were Everett and significantly better in the field than anyone else, but Renteria has gone from a +6 to a -1, to a -9 this season. His reputation will land him a job somewhere else, and he couldn’t possibly be worse than this season, but it’s pretty evident that the Braves won that trade.

Lastly, we have David Eckstein, who was also profiled in the second base edition of this series. He cannot field anymore at shortstop, at 12 plays below average, and he really cannot hit much either, as his -0.70 WPA/LI explains. He does not strike out much, and his 8.7 BB% is the highest of his career, but a switch to second base should be mandatory if he wants to stick around. He should not be the starting SS for any team serious about contending. Furcal and Renteria will likely get the hefiest paychecks of this group, but guys like Cora, Izturis, and Everett will still be able to contribute.

Earlier this week we saw that the class of free agent rightfielders was quite small, at just six players, two-thirds of whom have options on their contracts for 2009 likely to be picked up. Then, moving over to leftfield showed that there are several potent offensive threats, all of whom, well stink defensively and should not be playing leftfield anymore. Today, our trip goes up the middle to centerfield, the much tougher defensive position in the outfield. Unfortunately, this year’s free agent class is not very impressive, so yes, the title to this post has sarcastic connotations.

Mike Cameron is the cream of the crop, so to speak, and is 36 years old. He played in 120 games for the Brewers this season, missing some time due to a performance enhancing related suspension, but was worth just about 1.5 wins above an average hitter. He posted an impressive .243/.331/.477 slash line, complete with 25 home runs and a career high ISO of .234. In the field, Cameron ranked 8th amongst centerfielders at +8 in John Dewan’s system. He has a 10 mm option for 2009 but can be bought out for $750,000. I would tend to think Cameron’s option will be exercised as he was productive both offensively and defensively and would be available for the entire season.

The next best free agent centerfielder, via 2008 WPA/LI, is the 39-yr old Jim Edmonds, who was worth just over one win above an average hitter. In 111 games split between San Diego and Chicago, Edmonds hit .235/.343/.479. His .244 ISO was closer to his power prime with the Cardinals, and his walk rate rose above the percentages from the previous two seasons. He was always lauded for his fielding and is even considered by some to be the best defensive centerfielder in the last few decades, but this is no longer the case. His +- system numbers have drastically declined since 2006, going from a +2, to a -11, to a -26 this season. He handled righties quite well and the declining defense was not exploited as much in Wrigley Field, so he could still be productive for at least another year, but he should be used in a platoon as opposed to full time starting duty.

After Cameron and Edmonds, we have Mark Kotsay, Corey Patterson, and Scott Podsednik, none of whom should be starting regularly. Kotsay and Podsednik are both 33 years old, but had seasons going in different directions. Kotsay was slightly better offensively, with a .276/.329/.403 line, compared to Patterson’s putrid .205/.238/.344, but Patterson was tied with Cameron at +8 while Kotsay registered a -16. Both were below average offensively, with Kotsay posting a WPA/LI of -0.85 with Patterson at -1.63.

I do not understand why Patterson is still given regular playing time, but hopefully this year was the final straw. Even his base-stealing has gotten worse, going just 14/23. If there is anything positive to take away from his season it would be that his strikeout rate dropped, but he rarely walks and rarely hits. A defensive replacement scenario would make sense, or a pinch-running capacity, but nothing more.

Podsednik only played 93 games this season for the Rockies, posting a .253/.322/.333 line. Scottie Pod has a -0.45 WPA/LI but a +3 in centerfield. In the previous two seasons, he played leftfield and posted a +8 and +7, respectively. His base-stealing has dropped off recently as well, meaning he is likely to be better suited for a defensive replacement role than a full-time starter. The pickings are slim in centerfield this year, especially given the likelihook of Cameron’s option being exercised. Perhaps we will see some trades this offseason or some prospects promoted to full time duty.