Hamels Not Alone In Playoff Dominance
Entering yesterday’s Game Five between the Phillies and Rays, Cole Hamels had pitched brilliantly in four straight post-season starts, and could have become the first pitcher in the Wild Card era to win all five of his playoff starts. Due to the nasty weather conditions, it is unlikely for him to reach this feat, but he could still pull it off if the Phillies take the lead in the bottom of the sixth inning and hold on for the victory. Sure, it would be quite the odd win, but regardless of whether or not he records a decision, his post-season has been extremely stellar.
In five starts, he scattered 23 hits over 35 innings, walking 9, striking out 30, and surrendering just two home runs. All told, he produced a 1.80 ERA, 3.33 K/BB, 0.91 WHIP, and a 2.92 FIP. While he has pitched beautifully and basically provided a guarantee that the Phillies would win or, at the very least, stay in the ballgame, he is not alone in post-season dominance this decade. From 2000-2007, I found five other post-seasons that either matched or surpassed Hamels in 2008.
In 2001, we saw a pair of amazing performances from the Diamondbacks dynamic duo of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. In six starts, Schilling posted the following: 48.1 IP, 25 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 56 K. Those numbers resulted in a miniscule 1.12 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, a 9.33 K/BB, and a 1.98 FIP. Teammate Johnson appeared in six games, five of which were starts, putting together the following line: 41.1 IP, 25 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 47 K. His 5.88 K/BB is fantastic but actually pales in comparison to Schilling’s, as do his 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His FIP of 2.06 comes strikingly close, however. It is no wonder the Diamondbacks were able to win the World Series.
In 2003, Andy Pettitte put together a tremendous line, even though the Yankees ended up losing the World Series to the Florida Marlins. Pettitte, in five starts, produced a 2.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.09 K/BB, and 3.24 FIP. Josh Beckett, then a member of the series winning Marlins, put together even better post-season numbers: a 2.11 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 3.92 K/BB, and 2.67 FIP in 42.2 innings assembled over five starts.
Beckett further cemented himself as arguably the best playoff pitcher in recent history, if not ever, with his line in 2007 as a member of the Red Sox: 4 GS, 30 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 35 K. Yes, Beckett produced a K/BB of 17.50, almost doubling Schilling’s overly impressive ratio from 2001. Beckett posted a 1.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and an astounding 1.42 FIP, which is actually lower than that of others before adding the 3-3.20 ERA normalizing number. Hamels may have just put the finishing touches on a brilliant post-season, but let’s not forget that there have been other absolutely tremendous performances. Which do you think was the best? Beckett in 2007, or Schilling in 2001?
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
I am alittle biased being a Red Sox fan and saying Beckett. However, I watched all of the above mentioned playoff stints. Beckett’s was by far the most superior. Schilling was amazing but he also had Johnson putting up incredible numbers to help ease the pressure. Beckett single handedly carried the pitching staff through the playoffs. When down 3-1 to the Indians with CC on the mound for the other team. Beckett went in and pitched a demoralizing victory and turned the series around.
I’d probably go with Schilling, if only because he pitched 18.1 more innings.
The Rays had the most productive bullpen in the majors with a 9.30 WPA. Close behind were the Phillies with 8.27. No wonder these two teams are in the World Series. I’m beginning to think that the bullpen is the most important “arm” as between hitting, starting pitching, and relieving.
Well, I think you have to get to the bullpen first. The Phillies are constructed in a way, because of their offense prowess, that they can win consistently with mediocre starting pitching depth. Most teams can’t win this way. Tampa Bay has great starting pitching depth and shrewdly put together a formidable bullpen, but don’t win like they have without starting pitching depth.
As for pitching, and I hate to say it, I have to go with Schilling. 48 innings is incredible. Does Beckett do it for another 18? Who knows. But Schilling did it. Plus if Beckett walks just one more guy his K/BB becomes 11.67. If Schilling walks one more his becomes 8. I don’t put as much credence into the K/BB differential once you get to 5+ K/BB.
I would say, at least prior to this past post-season, that Schilling’s 2001 was the best, but Beckett’s 2003 and 2007 combined were better than anyone else’s.
But what about his 2008?
Yeah, that’s why I said before this season. Entering this season I felt like Beckett probably had the best playoff numbers of anyone, but now I think Schilling may be taking the lead.
Tom, Diamond Mind did a series of studies of how the bullpen has become a necessary requirement for success in the playoffs, finding that superiority in offense and starting pitching was not enough. But I would not go so far as to say that it is the most important arm, else you would see more teams with lousy rotations or lousy offenses making it to the World Series. As in most things in life, there needs to be a balance.
However, one hypothesis, which I’ve come up with but haven’t seen studied anywhere yet, is whether having a dominating pitcher tilts the favor towards that team. Besides the obvious that this is one or two less win needed by the team to win any of the playoff series, does having that one pitcher help a team immensely in making or even winning the World Series?
The data in this post supports this hypothesis, the only one to not have his team win the World Series was the starting pitcher (Pettitte) who had the misfortune of meeting an even more dominating pitcher (Beckett) in the World Series, though of course Hamels’ team has not won yet either. But they are knocking on the door and have a very good chance of doing it, particularly if there is enough rain to give Hamels enough rest to pitch game 7.
“Yeah, that’s why I said before this season.”
Doh. Then I totally agree.
Interesting..