The World Series starts tomorrow, and for the first time in, well, forever, I actually care about the outcome. Sure, the Phillies participated in the series back in 1993, but it is very hard to understand the severity of such a situation as an 8-yr old. Heck, back then I even thought that batting average was a sufficient evaluative barometer. Though this series will feature Joe Buck and Tim McCarver in the broadcasting booth, my eyes will still be glued to the screen each night, hoping that the team I devote so much of my energy to can reward me in the biggest way possible. The Phillies will have to be sharp, sharper than they have been thus far, in order to walk away victorious, but there are a few key specifics they need to hone in on in order to be successful.

First, even though this may be a cry on deaf ears, Charlie Manuel really needs to separate Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The specific batting order does not matter that much, but having them back to back is literally just asking for Trever Miller, JP Howell, or perhaps even David Price to enter into a high leverage situation with the goal of neutralizing the heart of the Phillies order. Especially given Howard’s recent struggles, why not go with Utley-Burrell-Howard? At the very least it splits the order up, meaning that the first six could be Rollins (S), Werth (R), Utley (L), Burrell (R), Howard (L), Victorino (S), or the same incarnation with Werth and Victorino reversed.

Next, for the games played in Tampa, they will need to pick their defensive poison between Ryan Howard at 1B or Pat Burrell in LF. Considering Burrell is replaced each night with a better defender, it is more than likely that he will serve as the designated hitter come tomorrow. This means that either Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, or Geoff Jenkins can join the outfield. Dobbs is not a natural outfielder, but he has seen time there for the Phillies over the past two seasons, and is the most consistently productive of the three. Getting him in the game could prove to be very important.

Another key aspect will be to have a short leash on Jamie Moyer. Jamie has a remarkable season, regardless of how old he is, but his two playoff starts have been abysmal. He may have been unlucky, and just an inch lower from striking out Blake DeWitt, ending the first inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers down 2-0 as opposed to 5-0, but if Moyer is not getting calls from the umpire, or his location is poor, he is not going to be effective. JA Happ has proven himself capable enough, and while he should not begin the game already warming up in the bullpen, if Moyer starts struggling, Manuel needs to make a move quickly.

Lastly, for now, Charlie Manuel needs to avoid going crazy with micro-managing the bullpen. The Phillies relief corps has been the best in the bigs this season, but Manuel has a tendency to do what he thinks is the correct way to go about doing things as opposed to, say, the right thing. If Cole Hamels is cruising through six innings and is at, or below, 90 pitches, there is no reason to bring in Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, or JC Romero. Likewise, yes, Brad Lidge has not yet blown a save this season, but if any of these starters is cruising through eight innings, and can come back out for the ninth, do not waste him or make him throw more pitches than is necessary.

Finally, while this is not necessarily something the Phillies organization can control, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins need to step up, big-time. Rollins did not have tremendous statistics in either series, but he did record timely hits, which more than helped the Phillies reach the World Series. Howard really only has one meaningful hit the post-season, racking up statistics in relatively meaningless situations. If he does not start producing, given that Manuel is not going to separate he and Utley, it gives Chase no much less protection and virtually creates a black hole. He was able to knock the ball out of the park all year long, and he needs to continue to do so now, when it matters most.

This series might not get the ratings, but it is a very solid matchup of two of the best teams in baseball this year, and has the makings of providing some very entertaining games to watch.

This morning we took a look at the right fielders set to hit the free agent market, so now we will shift to the opposite side and examine this year’s class of free agent left fielders. There are significantly more pure left fielders, or players more suited to play left field than the amount mentioned earlier in right field, but only a few truly stand out. Wily Mo Pena is the youngest of the group while Moises Alou, who has hinted at retirement, is the elder statesman. The fourteen players are listed below, with their 2008 games played, slash line, and WPA/LI:

Name                 Age     G            Slash  WPA/LI
Wily Mo Pena          27    64   .205/.243/.267   -1.56
Adam Dunn             29   158   .236/.386/.513    3.06
Juan Rivera           30    89   .246/.282/.438   -0.62
Milton Bradley        31   126   .321/.436/.563    3.33
Pat Burrell           32   157   .250/.367/.507    2.77
Gabe Kapler           33    96   .301/.340/.498    1.34
Emil Brown            34   117   .244/.297/.386   -0.94
Fernando Tatis        34    92   .297/.369/.484    0.77
Jay Payton            36   127   .243/.291/.346   -1.61
Raul Ibanez           37   162   .293/.358/.479    1.58
Manny Ramirez         37   153   .332/.430/.601    6.10
Garret Anderson       37   145   .253/.325/.433    0.29
Luis Gonzalez         41   136   .261/.336/.413   -0.32
Moises Alou           42    15   .347/.389/.388    0.26

Pena has a 5 mm club option for 2009 as well as a 2 mm player option, and Anderson has a 14 mm option with a 3 mm buyout. If the Angels decide to exercise the options of both Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero, they will be spending 29 million dollars next season on aging, declining outfielders. Keeping Vlad around makes sense given he can still rake, but Anderson has lost a ton of productivity with the bat and is, at best, an average fielder. Buying him out for 3 million makes sense if they can find a nice upgrade.

At just 29 years old, Dunn has established himself as a durable and consistently productive offensive threat. He hit 40 home runs on the nose for the fourth straight season, and now has 40+ dingers in five straight years. His low .262 BABIP should regress a bit, meaning his line is more likely to be in line with 2007’s productivity. He and Burrell are three true outcome players, with Burrell being three years his elder. Both should land big contracts. From 2004-2008, Burrell’s OPS has ranged from .821-.902, with the lowest coming in that injury-plagued 2004 season. He and Dunn may be terrible defensively but put them in the DH spot and 30+ home runs with an OPS above .850 ain’t too shabby.

Milton Bradley served primarily as a DH in 2008, and despite an injury, was absolutely on fire, producing a .999 OPS. Unfortunately, this was largely built upon an unsustainably high .396 BABIP which is sure to regress. He has talent, as has always been the case, but not this much talent. He could find himself in the outfield of another team, but he seemed to fit in perfectly with the Rangers. Gabe Kapler is just 33 years old but feels like a 40-year old given the crazy turns his career has taken. In 96 games was a -2 in LF despite being +7 in CF, and put together an .838 OPS.

Fernando Tatis wanted to get back to the major leagues in order to earn enough money to build a church in his hometown. Not only did he earn the amount he desired, but he proved he could still produce at the highest level, smacking 11 home runs with an .853 OPS in under 100 games of work. He was also +3 in the field in left field. Jay Payton, on the other hand, should not be given a job this offseason. The 36-yr old has seen a decline in OPS of .749 to .637 from 2005-2008, decreasing each season. He is +6 in the field, but giving players like he and Kevin Millar significant playing time is exactly why the Baltimore Orioles have not been able to compete recently.

This brings us to our interesting 37-yr olds: Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez. Somehow, Ibanez has been around since 1996, producing quite nicely offensively, without becoming anywhere near a household name. He may be a horrid defender in recent years, but his offense has been consistent with OBP/SLG tandems in the last three years of: .358/.479, .351/.480, .353/.516. Manny, on the other hand, was worth over six wins above average this year and continued to show why he is one of the greatest hitters of all time. Scott Boras mentioned he may be seeking an iconic contract, along the lines of 5/150, which is absurd, but he definitely has at least a couple extremely productive seasons left in the tank. If he stays in the National League his numbers will look even better.

He didn’t like the in-your-face style of baseball along the East Coast, so it is unlikely he signs with the Yankees or Mets, but perhaps the Angels cut bait with Garret Anderson and offer Manny a 4/100 deal like he was originally seeking. The Phillies will have an opening in left field as well, assuming they cannot resign Pat Burrell, so somebody like Tatis or Kapler may be interesting options to platoon with Geoff Jenkins or Matt Stairs. Regardless, Emil Brown and Jay Payton should be avoided, and it is somewhat likely that Luis Gonzalez and Moises Alou will hang up their cleats.

Our look at free agents by position continues with a trip to right field, where there are just six notable players hitting the market this off-season. To make matters even more interesting, four of the six players have player, club, or mutual options for 2009, meaning the pickings are pretty slim. Now, of course, somebody playing center- or leftfield could always move over to the right if the need presents itself, but the six players below spent the majority of their time in right field this past season:

Name                 Age       G            Slash   WPA/LI
Bobby Abreu           35     156   .296/.371/.471     1.97
Brian Giles           38     147   .306/.398/.456     2.52
Ken Griffey Jr.       39     143   .249/.353/.424    -0.01
Vladimir Guerrero     33     143   .303/.365/.521     1.83
Jason Michaels        33     123   .224/.292/.360    -0.94
Brad Wilkerson        32     104   .220/.308/.326    -1.01

Giles has a 9 mm club option with a 3 mm buyout. Griffey, a 16.5 mm option with a 4 mm buyout. Guerrero has a 15 mm option with a 3 mm buyout, and Michaels has a 2.6 mm option. This leaves Abreu and Wilkerson as the only two “pure” rightfielders hitting the market when the world series ends. Griffey may retire, but if not, he should be used as a DH somewhere. Giles will likely return to the Padres, and I would be somewhat surprised if Guerrero was not a Halo next season.

Abreu is still a productive offensive player at 35 years of age, but the signs are pointing in the wrong direction. His walk rate was lower this year than in the past, and despite an ISO rise to .176 thanks to a “jump” to 20 home runs, his defense is getting considerably worse. He may have won a gold glove a few years back, but you better believe it was undeserved. He may have a nice arm in rightfield, but he was a -24 in the field this year and there is no evidence that this will improve. Anything longer than a 2-yr deal with an option for year three would be a mistake. Abreu has had a very nice career, but it is almost at its end.

Giles only hit 12 home runs this season, but in many ways produced an offensive season we may expect from Abreu: he hit for average, added some power (40 doubles), and reached base a ton. Even at 38 years old, his offense was worth over two and a half wins above an average player. He has been durable for quite some time, and his defense was exemplary this past season. At +20 plays above an average rightfielder, Giles was the second best in the field, and extremely solid offensively. Bringing him back for another season at 9 mm would be a steal.

Guerrero’s 1.83 WPA/LI was his lowest since 1998, and his aging is pretty evident while watching the Angels play. He can still rake and knock the ball all over the place, but his power has diminished a bit in recent years, he has become a slower runner due to injuries, and his outfield range has taken a hit. Now, over the last three years he has been either average or slightly below average in rightfield, so he is not like Abreu out there, but an unhealthy Vlad may not be worth the 15 million dollars he would be owed if his option is exercised. Still, I cannot see the Angels buying him out and risking him sign elsewhere, but if his injuries cannot get under control he will continue to lose value, and do so quite quickly.

Griffey’s WPA/LI pegged him as about a league average hitter in 2008, and his -17 in rightfield says he was well below average defensively. His OPS was the lowest since his rookie season, and despite managing 143 games played, his value seems to be primarily dependent upon veteran leadership and the halo effect. Griffey does not really have much left to prove, so my suggestion would be to hang up the cleats. He is nowhere near worth the 16.5 million dollars on his option, so it may be very wise to buy him out for 4 million and let another team take a chance.

This year’s class of rightfield free agents is not all that interesting given that 2/3 have options, but I would predict the following:

a) Abreu re-signs with Yankees at 2 yrs with a 3rd year option
b) Giles has his option exercised and returns to Padres
c) Griffey is bought out and either retires or latches on a smaller 1-yr deal elsewhere
d) Guerrero returns to the Angels
e) Michaels returns to the Pirates
f) Wilkerson is signed midway through the season by a National League team

Thoughts?

Our look at the free agent class of 2009, split by position, continues as we venture over to first base, where Albert Pujols calls home. There are eight free agent first basemen available this offseason, but many more questions exist regarding these players than certainties. The only certainty, in fact, is that Mark Teixeira is the cream of the crop, and far more attractive (in a baseball sense) than any of his compadres. In fact, after him, the next youngest players are five years his senior. And of those players ranging from ages 34-38, a couple may be kept via options in their contract, and those remaining look more like backup pieces or potential new members for AARP than likely contributors to a franchise. Here is the list:

Name                   Age       G             Slash      WPA/LI
Mark Teixeira           29     157    .308/.410/.552        4.69
Richie Sexson           34      96    .221/.321/.382       -0.61
Sean Casey              34      69    .322/.381/.392       -0.15
Doug Mientkiewicz       35     125    .277/.374/.379        0.27
Kevin Millar            37     145    .234/.323/.394       -0.85
Carlos Delgado          37     159    .271/.353/.518        3.00
Tony Clark              37     108    .225/.359/.318       -0.18
Jason Giambi            38     145    .247/.373/.502        2.66

Giambi, the elder statesman of the group, has a 22 million dollar option on his contract for next season. The Yankees bringing him back is largely contingent on whether or not they ink Mark Teixeira to a big deal, which they can and should do. If Tex ends up in another uniform, one more year of Giambi would not really hurt anything, as he is still very productive and still hit 32 home runs with an OPS above .850 this past season. His BABIP was .257, which should call for regression, however, his BABIPs in 2006 and 2007 were .251 and .264, so perhaps this year’s number is more normal than it seems.

Teixeira, as mentioned, is the cream of the crop. His ability to get on base and hit for power are fantastic, and he is one of the best fielding first basemen in baseball. AKA, he is the total package, and at just 29 years old, looks primed for a big 5-6 year deal. Last season his OBP/SLG was .400/.563; this season, .410/.552. He hit 33 home runs and 41 doubles, was extremely durable, and his +24 at first base led the position this year in fielding.

Delgado has a 12 million dollar option on his contract that the Mets should almost certainly exercise given that he carried the team on his shoulders for the second half of the season. His 38 home runs and 32 doubles are even more impressive when it is remembered how poorly he performed early on. He takes pride in his defense, but this was a down year in that category. After posting a -4 and +1 in 2006 and 2007, he fell to -15 this year, one of the worst at the position. It is unclear whether this was a fluke or a sign of things to come, but if he can hit 35+ home runs with an OPS above .850 for the Mets next season, he will be worth all of that 12 million dollars.

Sexson is an interesting case, because his career entering 2007 looked great. He hit a ton of home runs, showed an ability to get on base despite striking out a lot, and at 32 years old, had at least a few more good seasons left in the tank. He also looked to be around the league average defensively. His 2007, however, was disastrous, as his fielding dropped to -15, and his slash line looked worse than Michael Bourn’s from 2008. A .217 BABIP can carry most of the blame for that, but even with a regression to .275 in 2008, Sexson only managed a .221/.321/.382 line with 12 home runs in 96 games. A line like that might be okay for a defensive replacement with occasional starting duty, but not for an everyday starting first baseman. He could easily ink a 2-yr deal given his reputation from pre-2007, but a safer bet would be an incentives-laden contract.

Aside from these four, we are left with Millar, Mientkiewicz, Clark, and Casey. Clark should probably retire at this point, as even though he still possesses the ability to get on base, his power has diminished over the last couple of seasons, and he is not that big of a threat off the bench. He could provide veteran leadership for another season, but, if anything, I see him as a mid-season signing somewhere and nothing more. Mientkiewicz is still a very solid defender, but his offense is not good enough to merit a full-time starting job somewhere. In the past, the Pirates would sign a guy like him to be their starting first basemen, so hopefully they can show they have some brains now and realize he is better suited to be a late innings replacement with occasional starts, and nothing more.

Casey is only 34, but he seems like he is 38 or 39 given his position on the bench over the last couple of years. A .368 BABIP helped massage this year’s statistics, accrued in limited action, but again, he is much better suited to come off the bench at this juncture of his career. Millar seems like a great clubhouse guy, and that could earn him some money and playing time next season, but like Clark, he should be looking towards retirement. He still managed to hit 20 home runs and 25 doubles, but he should not be the starting first baseman for any team serious about contending.

When the Phillies made the playoffs in 1993, I was eight years old, starting the second grade, and despite a claim staked as a baseball fan, largely unaware of the magnitude of the situation. It had been ten years since they last found themselves playing into October, and that ended with a disappointing four games to one loss to Cal Ripken’s Orioles in the World Series. I attended the 15-14 World Series game, but the only non-Joe Carter memory I can conjure up about that postseason is Fred McGriff mashing a long home run.

Last year, when the Phillies won the division on the final day of the season, I was absolutely elated. It was my senior year at Penn State University and I had come home for the weekend to attend my girlfriend’s sister’s sweet sixteen party. Luckily, the day of the party coincided with a lousy Adam Eaton performance that almost cost the Phillies their season, so I did not miss much. But the next day, my brother, a Phillies blogger at MVN, and my father, the former TV producer for the Phillies, watched in awe as Wily Mo Pena stood, dumbfounded, as a Brett Myers curveball resulted in a called third strike, and ultimately, the division.

After six or seven years of the Phillies coming within three games of the division and/or wild card, I was so excited that they made the playoffs that losing the division series did not matter to me. I did not care that they got swept by the Rockies, because the team I devote so much energy and so much of myself to, finally rewarded me for my loyal fandom. Sure, a division series win would have been nice, but they got there, and that is what mattered to me. This year, however, was a different story. Perhaps making the playoffs for the first time in my young adult years spoiled me, but I had expectations this season. Expectations that they could at least get back to the division series. The outlook appeared to be bleak at several different junctures, but they always battled back, and ended up winning the division for a second straight season.

Unlike last year, I wanted a division series win this time around. Last year, I got a sniff, but this year, I wanted a big, delicious bite. When the Brewers handed the Phillies game one on a silver platter, I was thrilled, but also uneasy due to the fact that the Phillies just as easily could have lost the game and did not perform too well outside of Cole Hamels. In Game Two, myself and fellow bar patrons went into an absolute frenzy when Shane Victorino hit a grand slam off of CC Sabathia, an event nobody could have predicted. Of course the annoying comments such as “CC-ya later” resulted when he was pulled from the game but the Phillies took a 2-0 lead into Milwaukee and I honestly felt that, wow, my bite was almost complete.

Dave Bush shut the Phillies down in game three, setting up an important fourth game matchup between Jeff “I am the epitome of average” Suppan and Joe “I am an innings eater, I swear!” Blanton. To show off my clairvoyant ability, I predicted that Jimmy Rollins would lead off the game with a home run, and vowed to buy a drink for everyone at my table if it came true. Of course, Rollins did hit a leadoff home run, and I lost $20 buying drinks. It was $20 well spent, though. Blanton pitched a gem, and even though the Eagles lost to the Redskins on the adjacent television set, my Phillies had won a playoff series and were actually advancing. It did not really sink in until I got ready for the first game of the championship series, one that looked like it would be very tough given the Dodgers recent run, and, of course, Manny Ramirez.

During game one, which took place in Philadelphia, I was very annoyed that the song leading into commercial breaks was “I Love LA” by Randy Newman. Nothing against Mr. Newman, but this game took place in Philadelphia, and even when the Phillies took a 3-2 lead, FOX’s usage of the song persisted. This was my first inclination that maybe, just maybe, FOX was pulling for the Dodgers. I didn’t mind, but when Joe Buck and Tim McCarver exhibited pro-Dodger broadcasting, failing to highlight or capitalize on solid plays by the Phillies, I grew more than ticked off. To FOX, Buck, and McCarver, shame on you. I understand that Dodgers-Red Sox would be huge ratings, but I tune into a game and like to hear objective announcing. Not only does Buck not understand that the opinion of a play by play guy is irrelevant, but McCarver is a complete idiot and gets by because “catchers are smart!”

Their broadcasting in this series was atrocious, only diagnosing aspects from the Dodgers point of view, and as Brian Joseph of MVN Outsider wrote, if I was going to tune in and listen to a Dodgers’ broadcast, at least give me Vin Scully. But I digress. Brett Myers and Shane Victorino handled the Dodgers with the bat in game two, giving the Phillies a 2-0 series lead heading to Manny-wood. In game three, Hiroki Kuroda manhandled the Phillies, who just could not do anything to erase an early 5-0 deficit. Russell Martin seemingly took pride in setting up inside to incite retaliation, but once again failed to back up his talking the talk with any semblance of walking the walk at the plate. Martin may be an all-star and a solid player, but he came off as an absolute punk in this series, whining about call after call, and not doing anything to back it up. He also should never have been batting behind Manny Ramirez because, well, he provided absolutely no protection.

Game four would be extremely important, as the difference between 2-2 and 3-1 is huge. The game appeared to belong to the Dodgers until Joe Torre’s odd usage of the bullpen resulted in Shane Victorino lining a two-run home run off of Cory Wade into the right field bullpen, knotting the game at 5-5. Then came the home run from new Phillies legend Matt Stairs, off of Jonathan Broxton, to put the Dodgers away, 7-5. Stairs pretty much has a one track swing, and Broxton threw him the best possible pitch for that track.

Last night, at a bar on Frankford and Cottman Avenue, I once again called that Rollins would hit a leadoff homer, but in case I was correct, did not offer to buy drinks. Jimmy did, in fact, lead the game off with a home run, so I saved some money and got just as much satisfaction. Howard and Burrell hit RBI singles of their own to put the Phillies up 3-0, and errors by Rafael Furcal led to the Phillies taking a 5-0 lead. I could feel it. I mean, I could really feel it. Hamels was cruising, the LA crowd was out of it, and there were only so many more outs before the Phillies could advance. For the fifth straight time, a Phillies pitcher failed to throw high heat to the target, missing with a fastball right down the middle, and Ramirez showed why he is one of the greatest hitters of all time, smacking a dinger into the right-center seats.

The home run only made the score 5-1, and after Cole Hamels got Jeff Kent looking, on a questionable pitch, I knew, deep down, the series was over. Ryan Madson, who has suddenly become unhittable, shut the Dodgers down in the 8th inning, before Brad Lidge had his typical Jose Mesa-like save, one which adds unnecessary drama. As Carlos Ruiz squeezed his glove on the Nomar foul ball, the next three minutes were an absolute blur, as I hugged and shook the hand of people I did not previously know and will never see again. We also apparently formed one of those pre-game NBA circles and were jumping around, screaming sentences that could not have made much sense.

The celebration then exited the bar and continued onto Frankford and Cottman Avenue, where there were easily 5,500 people celebrating in the streets, climbing street lights and stop signs, high-fiving, hugging, and just celebrating the fact that the Phillies were actually in the World Series. After about a half hour I got tired and needed to go home, but it still has not quite sunk in that the team I devote so much of myself to is now four games away from a world series. I don’t know how I will feel if they win or lose. I mean, clearly, I’ll be happy if they win, but since I have never experienced a championship, I don’t know if winning one would make me care less about the 2009 season or something along those lines. If they lose, I’ll still be happy they got there, but upset that some of my favorite faces, like Pat Burrell, probably won’t be returning.

Regardless, this was a hell of a year so far, and I just cannot believe that I actually care about the World Series this season. Now, if only they could stop showing that creepy astrophysicist and his commercials, I’d be set.

Yesterday, we took a look at the free agent catchers and third basemen about to hit the open market. Now, we will look to the keystone cornermen, a fancy literary term that allows me to delay writing just simply, second basemen. Our 2009 Free Agent 2B Class ranges from 29-41 in age, with some solid veterans and nice complementary pieces, a couple of whom exploded in the second half. There are, however, no overt stars in this class, no equivalents to Mark Teixeira or CC Sabathia at their respective positions. A couple of these players might even retire, so their free agent status would not likely matter too much, but without further ado, here they are:

Name                   Age        G             Slash       WPA/LI
Felipe Lopez             29      143   .283/.343/.387        -0.17
Orlando Hudson           31      107   .305/.367/.450         0.52
Mark Ellis               32      117   .233/.321/.373        -0.19
Jerry Hairston           33       80   .326/.384/.487         0.98
David Eckstein           34       94   .265/.343/.349        -0.70
Tadahito Iguchi          34       85   .232/.292/.306        -1.23
Ray Durham               37      128   .289/.380/.432         1.03
Mark Loretta             37      101   .280/.350/.383        -0.05
Damion Easley            39      113   .269/.322/.370         0.29
Mark Grudzielanek        39       86   .299/.345/.399        -0.04
Jeff Kent                41      121   .280/.327/.418         0.73

Lopez, the youngest of the group, had performed so poorly during the first 2/3 of the 2008 season that even the Washington Nationals cut their ties with him. He latched on to the St. Louis express and proceeded to hit .385/.426/.538 over his final 43 games. A poor fielder, registering -14 in the +- system this year and a -6 last year, Lopez could be a nice combo SS/2B player somewhere, but shouldn’t be starting for any team seriously trying to make a run to the playoffs. His stretch with the Cardinals was borderline incredible, but it appeared to be nothing more than regression taking full form, making up for his putrid production in Washington.

Hudson, the O-Dawg, is a very consistent performer both offensively and defensively. He is not going to OPS above .900, but he has shown improvement over the last few years and has posted an OPS of .817 in back to back seasons. Couple that with very solid defense–a +20 and +13 before this year’s -4–and you have a very good second basemen. If he can show his injuries are merely a figment of the past, he should command a nice-sized four year deal somewhere.

Mark Ellis had a terrible season with the stick, but was the second best fielding keystone cornerman in baseball this year, at +26. Now, that is a far, far distant second from Chase Utley’s +47, but Ellis is the real deal with the glove, posting a +13 in 2006, +19 last season, and this year’s +26. If anything, he is getting better on the field. He did manage to hit 12 home runs this season, and his .249 BABIP did not help his offensive statistics, so if he is going to regress and continue his solid defense, he will be quite valuable.

Jerry Hairston had an interesting season, as Dave mentioned not too long ago, as he posted an .871 OPS, much higher than any other season of his. Granted, it took place in just 80 games, but perhaps you can see how this guy continues to get work. He played all over the field in 2008, with average to above average defensive skills, and, in just 80 games, was worth one win above an average player. David Eckstein, on the other hand, is not very good offensively, and his defensive skills have been eroding. After a +2 in 2006, he posted a -14 and -12 at shortstop. He did manage a +2 at second base this year, so it might be time for the champion of grit to permanently move to second base if he wants a starting job.

Even at 37 years old, Ray Durham was still immensely productive with the bat. Being a switch-hitter at a relatively poor offensive position, with oodles of veteran presence to dish out to youngsters, Durham probably has another 2-3 years left before he hangs up his cleats. If he was producing OPS counts in the .650s it might be different, but he basically had the same season as Orlando Hudson this year, if not better. He isn’t a solid fielder, by any stretch, but he will definitely find a home, likely in extended backup duty.

Damion Easley is the kind of player who elicits “he’s still around?” reactions all across the country. He may be 39, and his overall numbers might not be that solid, but he has shown a knack for hitting lefties extremely well. This drastic split deteriorated a bit in 2008, so he might not look as valuable as he may be, but I am sure he will find a home for a one year deal to platoon and hit off southpaws.

This brings us to Grudzy and Kent, two players who have at least hinted at retirement. Both are old, poor fielders, and losing many steps offensively. Kent is still a scary player off the bench, but at 41 years old, what else does he have to prove? If he cannot field and he is posting a lower SLG than Ray Durham, the only thing productive about him is his reputation as the second baseman with the most career home runs. Grudzielanek played a less than stellar 86 games for the Royals, and with his below average defense, is not worth a whole lot anymore. If I had ultimate control of the baseball universe, Kent, Grudzielanek, and Easley would retire, Loretta would become a utility player in the National League, Hudson and Ellis would get the bigger deals of this group, Eckstein would move to 2B, and Iguchi/Hairston/Lopez/Durham would get backup roles, occasionally with extended duty.

Continuing our series of looking at the free agents to be, by position, we move from the backstop to the hot corner, checking out the third basemen who will be available this off-season. Eight third basemen of note are going to be free agents, which include three pairs from the Rangers, Brewers, and Dodgers, a productive when healthy player, and a player only in the major leagues for his ability to play each and every position with league average skills. Here are the eight:

Name                  Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Hank Blalock           28       65   .287/.338/.508          0.21
Willie Bloomquist      31       71   .279/.377/.285          0.32
Joe Crede              31       97   .248/.314/.460         -0.57
Ramon Vazquez          32      105   .290/.365/.430         -0.10
Russell Branyan        33       50   .250/.342/.583          1.21
Nomar Garciaparra      35       55   .264/.326/.466          0.26
Casey Blake            35      152   .274/.345/.463          0.89
Craig Counsell         38      110   .226/.355/.302         -0.29

Blalock has an option on his contract for 2009, which should be exercised given that, despite the small sample size, he looked more like the 2003-2004 version of himself than the 2005-07 version. His ISO, OPS, and BB/K all returned to their 2003-2004 ranges, back when he was an all star. He also hit 12 home runs in 258 at bats and was a league average defender. His -3 and -4 defensive ratings in 2006 and 2007 support that he is probably average or slightly below average, but if he can produce for a whole season what he did in 1/3 of the 2008 season, he will definitely be worthwhile for the 6.2mm option.

Willie Bloomquist is a player that actually lives up to the oft-used example of why batting average does not tell the whole story. The example compares a player who hits in the .270s but with no extra base hits to someone in the .250s but with plenty of extra base power. Bloomquist had one double, and everything else was a single. He played all over the place this year, generally ranging from -2 to +2 wherever he found time. He may find a home somewhere as a utility player, but he does not have much value.

Crede was worth about a half win less than an average player in just 97 games, but managed to be the fourth best fielding third baseman, at +13 in the field. He did hit 17 home runs in 335 at bats and has established himself as a capable performer, so if he can stay healthy, he could be a nice addition. Ramon Vazquez was the opposite in the field, at -10, and despite a nice .290/.365/.430 line, it was more of a mirage than an accurate performance indicator. Ironically, his 2007 and 2008 seasons were eerily similar in terms of playing time: he played 104 games last year and 105 this year; he amassed 300 AB in both seasons; he stepped to the plate 345 times in 2007 and 347 times in 2008. He walked more, struck out less, and added more hits to improve his overall numbers. Unfortunately, this hinged upon an unsustainable .355 BABIP. He may have had a nice season, but Blalock is the much better bet here.

I cannot speak enough about Russell Branyan and it pains me that he does not play more. Yes, he strikes out, but he walks and absolutely mashes as well. In 132 at bats this year he hit 12 home runs, and managed to play +2 defense when he found himself at third base. Three true outcome players usually decline around the 35 years old mark, so the Bran-man should have a couple more productive years in him.

Nomar’s career reminds me a lot of Grant Hill’s: they were megastars for six or seven seasons, well on their way to the respective halls of fame, but injuries slowed them down and turned them into nice role players but nowhere near go to guys. Casey Blake was a nice pickup by the Dodgers to solidify the position down the stretch, but I would not expect him to be re-signed by Ned Colletti. I would expect Nomar to land himself a 1B/3B job somewhere, and Blake to be a starting third baseman for at least one more season.

Craig Counsell, however, has probably reached the point where he hangs up the cleats and becomes a bench coach. From what I have heard, he is destined to be a manager, and it might be time to start that process. He was not awful with the bat, but is a below average hitter still hanging on due to his ability to play multiple positions and do “the small things.” Blalock is the real catch here, and so it is likely the Rangers will keep him for at least 2009.

With the playoffs in full swing and approximately just two weeks of baseball remaining, I thought it would be prudent to take a look at the free agent class at each position. After all, these are the players our teams will be fighting for in trying to acquire their services for, at the very least, the 2009 season. For now, our target will be the free agent class of catchers, which, to put it kindly, might bring some intangibles and unmeasurable defensive value to the table in order to counteract their putrid offense. One, just one of the fifteen free agents to be listed below, had a positive WPA/LI this season, and it was barely above average, meaning that the best hitter below was a league average producer. First, the “young guns” of this year’s free agent crop of catchers:

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Miguel Olivo        30       84   .255/.278/.444         -0.20
Josh Bard           31       57   .202/.279/.270         -1.09
Dave Ross           32       60   .225/.369/.352         -0.10
Michael Barrett     32       30   .202/.274/.298         -0.60

Now, Olivo has a 2.7 million dollar mutual option for next season, and he would be a good investment as he has always shown a knack for power in a more elevated backup role. He probably should not be a starting catcher, but he would perform well in a catcher platoon situation, or as a backup making more than 40 starts a season. Bard had an extremely disappointing season; maybe he cannot get over his inability to catch a knuckleball. Ross is a classic three true outcomes player, almost like Branyan-lite, and he was the least bad of this group. And Barrett, despite injuries, posted numbers Michael Bourn would be proud of in his 30 games of action.

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Rod Barajas         33      104   .249/.294/.410         -0.02
Johnny Estrada      33       23   .170/.200/.170         -0.56
Toby Hall           33       41   .260/.304/.331         -0.31
Javier Valentin     33       94   .256/.326/.411          0.06
Jason LaRue         35       61   .213/.296/.348         -0.33

How is Rod Barajas only 33 years old? Based on his play last season with the Phillies I would have guessed 37 or 38. On top of his ability to prevent himself from aging, he actually played quite well this year in extended duty with the Blue Jays, actually leading them in OPS at one point halfway through the season. He has a mutual option on his contract for next season that will likely be exercised. Estrada’s career has fallen fast but I am sure some team will take a low-risk flyer on him. Hall, like Barajas, has an option that will likely be exercised. Valentin falls into the aforementioned Miguel Olivo category, of a catcher with power that will do well in duty that falls between the roles of backup and starter. LaRue did not have a terrible year, and for a backup with leadership ability–I’m assuming, at least–he should be able to play until he is at least 37.

Name               Age        G            Slash        WPA/LI
Jason Varitek       37      131   .220/.313/.359         -1.55
Ivan Rodriguez      37      115   .276/.319/.394         -1.11
Paul Lo Duca        37       67   .243/.321/.295         -0.69
Henry Blanco        37       58   .292/.325/.392         -0.27
Paul Bako           37       99   .217/.299/.328         -1.35
Brad Ausmus         40       81   .218/.303/.296         -1.18

Blanco has a mutual option on his contract, and based on his lack of offensive suckitude this year, as well as his reputation of being defensively stellar, he will have a job next season. The other five, in a Seidman-run MLB, would be out of work. I know Varitek is “the captain,” but the captain cannot hit anymore, and sometimes, just sometimes, winning is better than nostalgia or loyalty in the sport of baseball. Pudge is a surefire hall of fame catcher, but he is well past his prime, not so great defensively, and below average offensively. However, I am sure he will be able to provide “veteran presence” to a young team somewhere in 2009.

Lo Duca shouldn’t have had a job this season, let alone next season, so enough said right there. Bako and Ausmus could be okay in very limited backup duty, but at that point, why even pay someone who may be okay in a situation when there likely are better options in the farm system? If I were GM of a team, I would go for Blanco, Valentin, Ross, and Olivo out of this group, and that is pretty much it. As a group, they were awful offensively, with one-third of the players posting a higher OBP than SLG, and adding up to enough lost wins below average that, if reversed, might have even gotten the Marlins or Astros into the post-season.

Thanks to Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors for supplying the free agent lists!

Trailing the Rays 2-1, The Red Sox are sending Tim Wakefield to the hill tonight to oppose Andy Sonnanstine in Game Four of the ALCS. Earlier today, Dave documented the offensive woes of last year’s World Series victors, but on top of that, to advance to the World Series, their starting pitching will also need to be sharp. Wakefield, even at 42 years old, can dominate the best of them with that incredible knuckleball, and he will shoulder the responsibility of helping the Sox knot this series up at two games apiece. Much has been discussed about Wakefield’s playoff numbers and his performance against the Rays in the regular season, but honestly, that should not be taken into account.

With such small samples of performance, we cannot accurately predict or understand how a player will perform in a playoff game like this. Lester shut the Rays down to the tune of a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings this season, before giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings yesterday. Ryan Dempster was untouchable at Wrigley Field and managed to touch everything in Game One of that NLDS. His postseason gamelogs show that he can either be hit or miss, shutting a team down, or allowing plenty of damage in a short time-span. The Rays, once on base, will try to wreak havoc, swiping as often as possible due to the amount of time it takes for Wakefield to get the ball to home plate.

If there is pressure on anyone in Game Four, it is on catcher Kevin Cash, who will need to, well, catch the knucklers from Wakefield. As simple a task as that seems, it is actually so difficult that Doug Mirabelli was able to extend his career by about four seasons due to his ability to handle Wakefield. Back to Timmy, though. The 16-year veteran does not nearly get the credit he deserves, and his 2008 proved to be one of his best seasons this decade.

He posted a 4.13 ERA, 4.84 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP in 181 innings this season. His K/BB was a tick under 2.0, thanks to a 5.82 K/9 and a 2.98 BB/9. The WHIP is his best since 2002, as is his .247 BABIP. Wakefield’s 71.9% strand rate is the best since 2005, and he produced a 1.60 WPA/LI, deeming him over a win and a half better than an average pitcher this season. Wakefield allowed very few baserunners and stranded a much higher percentage than in recent years. On top of all of this is the odd change in balls in play rates, as his GB/FB fell to a decade-low 0.73, while hsi FB% rose to a decade-high 48%. With about a league average 9.1% HR/FB, this resulted in a higher FIP and HR/9 due to the drastic rise in flyballs.

For his career, Wakefield has a 4.14 WPA/LI, making him just about four wins better than an average pitcher in this span, which makes sense. Wakefield has pretty much been an average pitcher, mixing points of dominance with some clunkers, but people often forget that average players possess plenty of value. He has a career 4.32 ERA and 4.72 FIP, along with a 1.35 WHIP and 71% strand rate. He will not make the Hall of Fame, but will definitely go down as one of the great knuckleballers of our time, and his ability to fill in as a starter or reliever for the Red Sox makes him extremely valuable to their team, year in and year out. Only time will tell how much longer he sticks around, but tonight will be a very important start for the two-time World Series winner.

Last night had all the makings of an easy Dodgers victory, as the Phillies looked tired and beat following the first inning and made too many mistakes to legitimately walk away as the victors. Joe Blanton, in an attempt to throw some high heat, threw a fastball right down the middle of the plate that James Loney just barely missed for a three run home run. Later in the game, Ryan Howard made another defensive miscue, which helped the Dodgers take a 5-3 lead. Following utter domination at the hands of Hong-Chih Kuo, it seemed that the Phillies would have to prepare for Game Five, with the series tied 2-2. But Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs did not receive that memo, or mission statement, for Jerry Maguire fans.

Kuo stayed in the game to pitch the 8th inning, but after surrendering a single to Howard–quite the unexpected event–Joe Torre lifted him in favor of Cory Wade. Wade retired Pat Burrell, but Shane Victorino, who has seemingly been in the middle of everything this post-season, lined a two-run home run over the right field wall to tie the game, 5-5. Wade then retired Pedro Feliz, before Carlos Ruiz hit what had the makings of a nothing-single. In actuality, this was as crucial a play as there was in the game, because his single helped prolong the inning. In many cases, I have seen the subsequent hitters weakly ground out or loft easy popups following a game-changing play, where nobody really even notices because their emotions circle around the game-changing play.

Ruiz kept the inning alive, and Joe Torre turned to Jonathan Broxton, the flame-throwing righty whom many fans thought should have been pitching earlier, especially given Wade’s limited availability coming in. The Phillies countered with Matt Stairs, the NLCS version of Russell Branyan, who went to the dish with one thought in mind: hit a home run. Stairs, who freely admits to swinging for the fences, was sitting dead red, and on a 3-1 count, got a 97 mph fastball closer to the middle of the plate than the outside corner and crushed an absolutely no doubt about her.

Stairs just completed his 17th major league season, where he has amassed 254 career home runs, with a .266/.358/.483 slash line. He will strike out, he will walk, and he will smack longballs. His best seasons belonged with the Athletics, where, from 1995-97, he OPS’d between .880 and .969, in full time duty. He also hit 26, 27, and 38 home runs in those seasons. Via WPA/LI, his best season was actually last year with the Blue Jays, where he was worth 2.56 wins above average. He posted an OPS of .917 in 2007 and hit 21 home runs without playing in a full-time capacity. Suffice it to say, of all the home runs he has hit, last night’s has to be the most memorable and most important.

The other man of the hour is Victorino, who is seemingly in the middle of everything in each game. After his two-run homer last night, Shane now holds the Phillies record for most RBIs in a single post-season, with 11 batted in. Whether it be his fine defensive plays, his baserunning (taking the extra base on the Furcal error, and the interference call in Milwaukee), his part in the melee in Game Four, the grand slam off of CC Sabathia, or the fine hitting in this NLCS, it seems that Victorino has suddenly transformed from a fantasy stud that is not a household name, to arguably the most covered Phillies player this October. With guys like Victorino and Stairs stepping up, the load is lessened on the big superstars, who can hopefully find their groove. If the Phillies do win Game Five, behind Cole Hamels, they will officially be in the World Series, where they will need to be firing on all cylinders to beat the Red Sox or Rays.