Right Fielders on the Market

Our look at free agents by position continues with a trip to right field, where there are just six notable players hitting the market this off-season. To make matters even more interesting, four of the six players have player, club, or mutual options for 2009, meaning the pickings are pretty slim. Now, of course, somebody playing center- or leftfield could always move over to the right if the need presents itself, but the six players below spent the majority of their time in right field this past season:

Name                 Age       G            Slash   WPA/LI
Bobby Abreu           35     156   .296/.371/.471     1.97
Brian Giles           38     147   .306/.398/.456     2.52
Ken Griffey Jr.       39     143   .249/.353/.424    -0.01
Vladimir Guerrero     33     143   .303/.365/.521     1.83
Jason Michaels        33     123   .224/.292/.360    -0.94
Brad Wilkerson        32     104   .220/.308/.326    -1.01

Giles has a 9 mm club option with a 3 mm buyout. Griffey, a 16.5 mm option with a 4 mm buyout. Guerrero has a 15 mm option with a 3 mm buyout, and Michaels has a 2.6 mm option. This leaves Abreu and Wilkerson as the only two “pure” rightfielders hitting the market when the world series ends. Griffey may retire, but if not, he should be used as a DH somewhere. Giles will likely return to the Padres, and I would be somewhat surprised if Guerrero was not a Halo next season.

Abreu is still a productive offensive player at 35 years of age, but the signs are pointing in the wrong direction. His walk rate was lower this year than in the past, and despite an ISO rise to .176 thanks to a “jump” to 20 home runs, his defense is getting considerably worse. He may have won a gold glove a few years back, but you better believe it was undeserved. He may have a nice arm in rightfield, but he was a -24 in the field this year and there is no evidence that this will improve. Anything longer than a 2-yr deal with an option for year three would be a mistake. Abreu has had a very nice career, but it is almost at its end.

Giles only hit 12 home runs this season, but in many ways produced an offensive season we may expect from Abreu: he hit for average, added some power (40 doubles), and reached base a ton. Even at 38 years old, his offense was worth over two and a half wins above an average player. He has been durable for quite some time, and his defense was exemplary this past season. At +20 plays above an average rightfielder, Giles was the second best in the field, and extremely solid offensively. Bringing him back for another season at 9 mm would be a steal.

Guerrero’s 1.83 WPA/LI was his lowest since 1998, and his aging is pretty evident while watching the Angels play. He can still rake and knock the ball all over the place, but his power has diminished a bit in recent years, he has become a slower runner due to injuries, and his outfield range has taken a hit. Now, over the last three years he has been either average or slightly below average in rightfield, so he is not like Abreu out there, but an unhealthy Vlad may not be worth the 15 million dollars he would be owed if his option is exercised. Still, I cannot see the Angels buying him out and risking him sign elsewhere, but if his injuries cannot get under control he will continue to lose value, and do so quite quickly.

Griffey’s WPA/LI pegged him as about a league average hitter in 2008, and his -17 in rightfield says he was well below average defensively. His OPS was the lowest since his rookie season, and despite managing 143 games played, his value seems to be primarily dependent upon veteran leadership and the halo effect. Griffey does not really have much left to prove, so my suggestion would be to hang up the cleats. He is nowhere near worth the 16.5 million dollars on his option, so it may be very wise to buy him out for 4 million and let another team take a chance.

This year’s class of rightfield free agents is not all that interesting given that 2/3 have options, but I would predict the following:

a) Abreu re-signs with Yankees at 2 yrs with a 3rd year option
b) Giles has his option exercised and returns to Padres
c) Griffey is bought out and either retires or latches on a smaller 1-yr deal elsewhere
d) Guerrero returns to the Angels
e) Michaels returns to the Pirates
f) Wilkerson is signed midway through the season by a National League team

Thoughts?