Entering tonight’s matchup of Derek Lowe and “Kentucky” Joe Blanton, the Phillies hold a 2-1 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series. After taking the first two games at home, the Phillies stumbled yesterday, behind a poor Jamie Moyer outing, en route to a disappointing 7-2 loss. The Phillies hitters continued to struggle against Hiroki Kuroda, and the win helped reinforce that these teams have trouble defeating each other on the road. The Phillies have a 6-5 season series lead against the Dodgers, going 6-0 in Philadelphia, but 0-5 at Chavez Ravine. As Game Four sets to get underway, I thought I would offer some notes of mine on the series thus far:

Poor Russell Martin
In Game Two, Brett Myers threw a pitch behind Manny Ramirez, that got everyone in the Dodgers dugout stirring. Myers claimed the pitch slipped out of his hands, and given his struggles early in ballgames–he led all major league pitchers in runs surrendered in the first inning–it is pretty safe to say that he did not want to put Manny on base. He was likely attempting an inside pitch that slipped out of his hand. Chad Billingsley did not retaliate, much to the ire of Ramirez, who went onto say that Myers is the kind of guy he would want on his team.

Last night, Hiroki Kuroda threw a pitch that sailed over the head of Shane Victorino, who promptly acknowledged that he understood the need for retaliation, but asked that he be hit in the ribs, not the head. After grounding out, Victorino said something to Kuroda, which ultimately resulted in both benches emptying. The melee soon calmed down, but it was clear that both teams had had it up to here (as I type this my hand is positioned high in relation to my body to emphasize the “here”) with balls “slipping.”

Lost in all of this is how Russell Martin was hit, twice, and brushed back in another at-bat. Ramirez and Victorino may have been near targets, but Martin got not only the taste of sweet chin music, but also two beanings.

Rollins and Howard…not MVP-like
Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are very talented players, and the recipients of the last two MVP awards in the National League. In this NLCS, however, they have been about as productive as Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist, combining for a 3-25 mark, with 8 punchouts. This has put more pressure on guys like Pat Burrell, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino, and if the Phillies have to rely on that triumvirate to help Chase Utley out, without Rollins and Howard, it is not very likely the Phillies will win this series.

Broxton
His mound presence is as intimidating as his last name sounds, and he throws really, really hard. If there was one major league pitcher that I would be terrified to face right now, it would be the Broxmeister.

Home Field Advantage
Perhaps my anger at the schedule of this series only surfaced due to being a fan of the Phillies, but is anyone else irked by the 2-3-2 format? I mean, sure, the team with the “2’s” gets more home games than not, but playing three straight home games in a row can be a massive momentum builder. You would think that the team with home field advantage might be the benefactor of three consecutive games at home, or at least that neither team would have that benefit. What is wrong with the 2-2-1-1-1 format? Sure, it adds time to the schedule, but it is not as if it adds a week. The teams would play two days, then a day off, then two days, followed by another day off. Then, each of the remaining three games would have a day off interspersed between them, meaning that, at its maximum, the series would last 12 days; in its current state, the maximum is 10 days.

Moyer
Jamie Moyer has now made two playoff starts this season, amassing a total of 5.1 innings, surrendering 8 earned runs. He was one pitch away from exiting the first inning last night with just two runs surrendered, but a poorly placed pitch to Blake DeWitt ensured that did not occur. The Phillies are now faced with a serious conundrum next time around, as, other than Cole Hamels, nobody has been stellar. Joe Blanton pitches tonight, and could perform well, but the triumvirate of Hamels-Myers-Moyer, as a whole, has not performed to expectations. Hamels has been brilliant, but Myers has been a better hitter than pitcher lately, and Moyer’s struggles were documented by Dave earlier today.

Dodgers Bullpen
Has not given up a run in three games. Cory Wade, James McDonald, Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Clayton Kershaw, Greg Maddux, Joe Beimel, and Chan Ho Park have combined for 11.1 scoreless innings, with 10 strikeouts.

Despite my allegiances to the Phillies, I initially predicted a 4-2 series win for the Dodgers. For me, honestly, tonight is a must-win for the Phillies, as it would push the series to 3-1, with Hamels pitching in Game Five. A loss here would bring with it the very real possibility of a 3-2 Dodgers lead heading back to Philadelphia, where they would once again face Kuroda, against whom they have struggled.

A good buddy of mine, RJ Anderson of Beyond the Box Score, sent me the introduction to a book he plans on writing, way back in March, and graciously allowed me to expound upon what he had been discussing. Essentially, RJ had, using the Lahman Database, found that the average slash line for all hitters from 1960-2006 was .259/.326/.395. Further utilizing the same database, he then found that the player whose career most closely matched this line was Oddibe McDowell, who, at .253/.323/.395, was closer to the average than anybody else.

Taking this discovery to the next level, I began to find the most average hitter each year by taking the average slash line in baseball in a given year and finding the hitter whose season most closely resembled that performance. It wouldn’t be fair to use the overall total from 1960-2006 as a constant because that would mean players from 2004 would be held to standards from 1962, but if you click the link above, you can see the winners of what I deemed The Oddibe Award, from 1981-2007. For the record, Jhonny Peralta was last year’s winner, with Curtis Granderson taking home the honor in 2006, a year before posting a tremendous statistical season.

This year, the average NL line was .260/.331/.413; the average AL line was .268/.336/.420. Finding players whose slash lines exactly match these is next to impossible, so instead I went looking for players in the general vicinity. Unfortunately, two of the closest players split time between leagues, so below are the players who came closest to either of the average slash lines:

Aaron Rowand (NL): .271/.339/.410
Jeremy Hermida (NL): .249/.323/.406
Casey Kotchman (AL+NL): .272/.328/.410
Ken Griffey (AL+NL): .249/.353/.424

From the looks of these four, the honor would seem to lean in the direction of Kotchman, but what happens when we introduce WPA/LI to the mix, which essentially tells us how many wins above an average player you were worth. A WPA/LI of 0.0 would designate you as a league average offensive performer. Rowand’s was 0.25, as was Hermida’s; Kotchman chimed in at 0.22; and Griffey at -0.01, making him the closest to the average among the four candidates. This puts me in a dilemma: I would like to say that Kotchman is the 2008 Oddibe Award Winner, but Griffey’s WPA/LI doesn’t lie. His slash line, however, is significantly off in the BA and OBP area. What do you think out there? Kotchman, because his slash line is right on par with the average, and his wins above average are under 1/4 of a win above average? Or Griffey, who is a little more off with the slash line but essentially the definition of average with WPA/LI?

Third base is nicknamed “the hot corner” due to the screaming liners or lightning-fast grounders that find their way to this position on the left side of the infield. Since the rest of the infield has been covered, we now turn to this hot corner to see which players stood out in a variety of different ways. While the discussion at third base usually begins with Alex Rodriguez, this year the position belonged to David Wright of the New York Mets. Wright produced a 5.20 WPA/LI, which ranked third in baseball behind Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez, let alone atop the list of third basemen.

In fact, Rodriguez did not finish directly behind Wright, either, as Chipper Jones put together quite the stellar season resulting in a 4.23 WPA/LI, about a win less than Wright. Rodriguez did come in third, on the heels of a 3.59, with Aramis Ramirez a half-win behind at 3.01. After these four, however, a wide gap separates them from the rest of the pack. In fifth place is Troy Glaus of the Cardinals, at 1.73, with Evan Longoria right behind at 1.71. Lastly, I am not quite sure how Jorge Cantu did not win the Comeback Player of the Year Award, but he produce a 1.35 WPA/LI for the surprising Marlins.

Third base is traditionally a solid-hitting position, and this year was no different than years past. Amongst those that qualified for the leaderboards, only Chone Figgins and Marco Scutaro were legitimately below average with the stick. In Scutaro’s defense, he only played 46 games at the hot corner this year, though his playing time was almost equally split between third base, shortstop, and second base. If we remove the qualifier, Andy LaRoche finished last at -1.82, with former hot prospect Andy Marte barely in front at -1.81. Jose Castillo (-1.44), Mike Lamb (-1.23), and Pedro Felix (-0.98) rounded out the bottom.

Feliz has been the best fielding third basemen in baseball over the last few years, but time missed to injuries and starts given to the more offensive-prone Greg Dobbs resulted in his fall from the top ten. Adrian Beltre, much maligned for falling short of expectations, led the way by a vast margin with a +32. Beltre has been very productive for the Mariners and it simply is not fair to compare him to the 48 HR version of him on the Dodgers prior to signing. Behind Beltre is Jack Hannahan of the Athletics, at +21. Hannahan is an interesting case as he was very adept defensively, but average or slightly below average at the plate closer to replacement level at the dish.

Behind Hannahan are a pair of third basemen that missed significant time yet performed well enough while healthy to finish with a +13. Scott Rolen, who played in just 115 games, and Joe Crede, in just 97 games, tied for third place. Fifth place brought with it a three-way tie between Evan Longoria, Blake DeWitt, and Chone Figgins, at +11. Figgins may have been below average with a bat in his hands, but his fielding was solid, and his baserunning topped all other third basemen. According to Baseball Prospectus’s EqBRR, a form of runs contributed due to base advancements, Figgins finished 8th in baseball at 7.66, with no other third basemen finishing in the top thirty. Next closest was Alex Gordon, 33rd, at 3.37.

Figgins also led with 34 stolen bases. Three players hit 40+ doubles, with Aramis leading the way with 44; David Wright‘s 42 and Jorge Cantu’s 41 were right behind him. The triples crown is split five ways between the scary quintet of Martin Prado, Jamey Carroll, Brandon Inge, Jose Castillo, and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Alex Rodriguez clouted 35 longballs, slightly ahead of Wright’s 33. But Chipper Jones took the OPS crown among third basemen, with a gaudy 1.044.

One player of note is Russell Branyan, who, in 50 games, produced a .230/.342/.583 line, a .925 OPS, complete with 12 home runs and 8 doubles in 132 at-bats. For anyone wondering why he is consistently given work, look no further. He may strike out a ton but the man gets on base and absolutely mashes. I know I was thrilled when the Phillies acquired him last year, and there are few lefty threats off the bench like him. You need not be a superstar to produce significant outputs at the major league level, and Branyan should be appreciated a bit more.

UPDATE: Apparently, Jack Hannahan looks better than he should due to a park adjustment. Regardless of his offense, he was the second best defensive third basemen this year.

With first basemen in the books and our look at keystone cornermen last night, our attention will now turn to shortstop, a position once populated with mega-stars such as Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra. Now, we have the new breed of shortstops, all of whom play in the NL East, with last names beginning with same letter: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes. Rollins took home the NL MVP award last season, in a much-debated race. Ramirez is probably the most underrated player in the game of baseball right now. And Reyes is one of the most exciting and talented players in the game.

Offensively, Hanley Ramirez is in a league of his own, with a 4.24 WPA/LI, just about two wins better than closest competitor JJ Hardy of the Brewers. Hardy checks in with 2.27, just ahead of Reyes and his 2.20. Jimmy Rollins places fourth, over a full win less than Reyes, at 1.02, with Christian Guzman slightly behind at 0.96. Rollins did have a disappointing season in 2008, in which he saw his power output diminish. He also missed some time early in the year due to injury, which is uncharacteristic of his career. His value extended beyond just the regular forms of evaluated offense this year, however.

On the basepaths, Bill James’ baserunning score placed him fifth in the entire major leagues with a +46. This metric adds one point for each steal while subtracting two for each time caught stealing, and factors in how often a player was able to get from first to third, second to home, first to home, and avoid double plays. No other shortstop ranked in the top ten. Looking solely at the stolen base portion, Jose Reyes finished sixth, but he could not capitalize enough on the base advancement factors to earn a spot in the top ten.

Additionally, Rollins led all shortstops with a +23 in the field, making him this year’s best fielding shortstop. Yunel Escobar of the Braves finished slightly behind Jimmy, at +21, with JJ Hardy and Cesar Izturis tied for third place at +19. Jack Wilson rounded out the top five with a +16. All of this does not push Rollins into the same area as Ramirez, by any stretch, but serves as an important reminder of why more factors other than offense need to be taken into account when evaluating a season.

Yunel is a pretty neat example of a role reversal. Last year, in half a season with the Braves, he was well above average with the stick, but scored a 0 in the +- fielding system, making him the epitome of a league average shortstop. This year, his WPA/LI deemed him a league average hitter, yet he was the second best fielding shortstop. Oh, how things change.

On the opposite of the effectiveness spectrum, Bobby Crosby’s -2.56 WPA/LI was by far the worst in baseball for shortstops, a full win worse than Yuniesky Betancourt. In the field, Crosby was a -13, with Betancourt a -19, so it is not as if Crosby played gold glove caliber defense. He had a dreadful season. Orlando Cabrera (-1.43), Edgar Renteria (-1.40), and Miguel Tejada (-1.27) round out the bottom five.

Stephen Drew led the pack with 44 doubles, with Jose Reyes topping everyone with his 19 triples. Hanley Ramirez led with 33 home runs, 92 walks, and a .940 OPS. Albert Pujols should win the MVP award this year in the National League, but based on how long the Marlins stayed in the race, Hanley Ramirez should not go unnoticed at all. His fielding has improved as well, with a +3 this year compared to a -37 in 2007. Yuniesky struck out the least, just 42 times. Rollins swung the least often, offering on just 39.7% of the pitches thrown his way. Despite that, he made contact on 90.8% of those swings, a rate topped only by Ryan Theriot and Marco Scutaro, who also found themselves at the top in percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone.

We also cannot forget Troy Tulowitzki, who had an injury-plagued sophomore campaign after proving himself as quite capable offensively and a wizard with the glove in 2007. Or even Rafael Furcal, who had a scorchingly hot April before going into hibernation only to return just in time for the division series. With Troy, Jose, Hanley, and perhaps Yunel on the rise, with veterans like Furcal, Rollins and Guzman still remaining valuable, this position might lack the star power of the A-Rod days, but it is still very talented.

Yesterday, we took a look at the first basemen in baseball this past season, looking at the good, the bad, and the Konerko. Today, our attention turns to second base, one of those pesky middle infield positions to see which bright spots housed the most shine, and where some of that light needs to be directed moving forward. Ultimately, though, there were really only two standouts at second base this year, when you factor in offense, defense, and baserunning: Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia. Utley is both a fan favorite and a saber-darling, as many analysts cannot wrap their heads around how the Phillies won the MVP award in 2006 and 2007 and neither of them went to former UCLA star. Pedroia may very well walk home with the AL MVP this year in a very open race.

When looking solely at offense, there were actually quite a few solid performers at the position this year. Outside of Utley and Pedroia, Dan Uggla smacked 32 more home runs, Ian Kinsler helped spearhead a scary Rangers offense, and Mark DeRosa emerged as a legitimate offensive threat–he may have played all over the place this season but the majority was at second base.

Via WPA/LI, Chase Utley was close to one and a half wins better than anyone else at the position:

Chase Utley, 3.63
Dan Uggla, 2.27
Dustin Pedroia, 2.03
Mark DeRosa, 1.89
Ian Kinsler, 1.62

When we use VORP, we get a slightly different story:

Dustin Pedroia, 62.3
Chase Utley, 62.2
Ian Kinsler, 54.6
Brian Roberts, 50.6
Dan Uggla, 42.5

This is strictly offense, though, so what happens when the defensive element is introduced:

Chase Utley, +47
Mark Ellis, +26
Adam Kennedy, +19
Brandon Phillips, +17
Dustin Pedroia, +15

Only Utley and Petey remain, further establishing my assertion that this position belonged purely to the two of them this season. Based on the fact that Utley made over three times more plays than Pedroia relative to the average second basemen and that he either leads by a large margin, or is essentially tied to Pedroia in several offensive categories, it is in no way a stretch to conclude he had the best season for a keystone cornerman. Pedroia may walk home with some hardware, but Utley performed better, and I’m not just saying that as a fan of the Phillies.

In the baserunning department, Ian Kinsler scored a +41 based on his stolen base success and ability to advance to bases or take the next base. This put him seventh in the sport, ahead of all other second basemen. Placido Polanco‘s 43 strikeouts were the least, and Brian Roberts‘ 82 walks were the most amongst these players. Utley hit the most home runs, 33, and produced the highest OPS, .915. Pedroia came within four doubles of Todd Helton’s “record” of 58, as he hit 54 two-baggers. Helton isn’t the record holder, but in recent history, nobody has more than his 58 from several years ago. Akinori Iwamura led the way with 9 triples in that department.

On the flipside, Freddy Sanchez and Robinson Cano had abysmal offensive seasons, finishing with a -1.44 and -1.31 WPA/LI, respectively. This does not mean either is a poor player, but rather that they had poor seasons. Factor in defense and it becomes clear that Cano had the worst season of any second basemen. Sanchez’s +2 at the position put him 11th, while Cano’s -16 placed him 34th, as he made sixteen less plays than an average second basemen. Entering the season, the thought existed that Cano might be able to challenge Utley in some way for second base supremacy. I don’t think anybody anticipated they would find themselves as polar opposites on both offense and defense. Tomorrow, we turn to Shortstops and Third Basemen, before finishing off the infield with Catchers on Friday.

For the rest of the week I am going to be taking a position-by-position look at players, discussing the best and worst in certain measures. For those keeping score at home, we are going to begin with first basemen, position number three in your lineup key. According to our leaderboard page, there were 27 players that qualified for inclusion amongst first basemen, ranging from the brilliance of Albert Pujols to the, well, complete opposite of brilliance produced by Daric Barton. Via WPA/LI, Albert Pujols was over one and a half wins better than any other first baseman. He should be the senior circuit’s most valuable player, though that much is yet to be seen. Here are the top five in terms of context-neutral wins:

Albert Pujols, 6.48
Lance Berkman, 4.81
Mark Teixeira, 4.69
Adrian Gonzalez, 3.43
Carlos Delgado, 3.00

And the bottom five:

Daric Barton, -1.09
Kevin Millar, -0.85
Ryan Garko, -0.48
Paul Konerko, 0.02
Casey Kotchman, 0.22

Interesting how the fourth and fifth worst marks in this metric were still above average, which goes to show just how offensive-minded of a position first base can be. Speaking of offense, Ryan Howard led all first basemen with 48 home runs. Lance Berkman led with 18 stolen bases, which I am still having trouble wrapping my head around. Justin Morneau may not have lit the world on fire with longballs, and may not even be the most valuable player on his own team, let alone the league, but he did lead first basemen with 47 doubles.

James Loney and Conor Jackson tied for the lead with 6 triples apiece; somehow, Ryan Howard managed to hit four three-baggers. Straight out of the not-so-shocking department, Albert Pujols led with 104 walks, and struck out just 54 times. Unfortunately for Albert, Casey Kotchman fanned just 39 times, for the lowest total. But, Pujols posted the highest ISO at .296 and highest OPS at 1.114, so something tells me he wouldn’t let finishing second in least strikeouts amongst first basemen bother him too much.

Mike Jacobs, who hit for plenty of power this year but virtually refused to get on base any other way, swung the most, offering at 54% of the pitches thrown his way. Albert once again topped all first basemen, this time in contact made, as he was able to get his bat on 90% of the pitches he swung at. Kevin Youkilis, formerly nicknamed the Greek God of Walks, is still displaying excellent patience, so it is no wonder he led with 53.47% of pitches seen in the strike zone. After all, if he will not swing at a pitch outside the zone, why throw them with great frequency?

In the fielding department, Mark Teixeira led with a +24, followed by Pujols at +20, the surprising Joey Votto at +19, Lance Berkman at +18, and Carlos Pena at +14. Based on the WPA/LI and fielding data, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira, and Lance Berkman were the three best first basemen this year, with the order of Tex and Lance virtually being up to he who decides to arrange them in a given order. Plenty of first-sackers may hit for power, but these three displayed brilliance all around. Lastly, Geovany Soto likely has the Rookie of the Year award in the national league locked up, but Joey Votto had a very, very good year, largely under the radar, displaying both power and solid fielding skills. Hopefully for Reds fans he can build upon this year and not experience any type of slump next season.

Over at Statistically Speaking, and The Hardball Times, my pal and colleague Pizza Cutter has posted the results of what I guess we are deeming the Renegade BBWAA Awards. The premise was simple: contact as many stathead bloggers as possible, and ask them to offer first, second, and third place votes for the three major awards in each league. The awards in question were the MVP, Cy Young Award, and Rookie of the Year. It did not make much sense to include Comeback Player of the Year or any other absolutely ridiculous award designed to give some sponsor of major league baseball air time.

The results are posted at both of the linked sites in the above paragraph, but instead of going over who we voted for, with arguments for and/or against, I wanted to touch on how we probably picked the same player as the BBWAA in five of the six instances. I cannot see Albert Pujols not winning the NL MVP, though I sincerely doubt it will be a unanimous victory as in our poll. Geovany Soto is a lock for NL Rookie of the Year, and while I personally voted for Johan Santana for NL Cy Young Award, I have a very strong inclination that Tim Lincecum will walk home with some impressive hardware.

The AL Rookie of the Year award was essentially won by Evan Longoria after one week in the major leagues. Okay, maybe not literally, but what I mean is that ever since his call-up, this has been his award to lose, and despite missing time with an injury, he will probably receive votes for a more “important” award, let alone enough to win this one. In the AL Cy Young Award race, I felt our results most clearly depicted what happened in the junior circuit this year, with Cliff Lee eventually winning, but Roy Halladay finishing very, very close. I can honestly see Cliff being an almost unanimous choice in reality, but Halladay definitely deserves some first place votes. Hey, at least Toronto has some BBWAA members!

The only award that seems to be up in the air is the AL MVP. I mean seriously, who is the AL’s most valuable player? Our votes resulted in a tie between Joe Mauer of the Twins and Grady Sizemore of the Indians. Alex Rodriguez finished third, with Dustin Pedroia finishing fourth. I support the Mauer choice even though he lacks the drama and superstar quality that writers seem to look for. I cannot support the Grady Sizemore choice for the simple reason that I just cannot truly justify giving both the Cy Young Award and MVP to players on an 81-81 team. A team does not have to make the playoffs to have an award winner, but the Indians were out of the race all season. Sizemore had a fantastic year, and put up gaudy statistics, but if I had to vote for the MVP specifically from the Indians, I might actually be more inclined to go with Lee. And why isn’t Evan Longoria getting more mention?

I really see Pedroia taking home the award when it is announced, but has there been a tougher AL MVP race in recent history? It seems that nobody is a clear-cut candidate. Anyways, if you are interested in participating in this next year, simply send myself or Pizza Cutter an e-mail.

Last week, Red Sox lefty Jon Lester and Angels righty John Lackey met in Anaheim for the first game of a much anticipated division series. On one hand, the Red Sox won the World Series last season, had beaten the Angels in the playoffs about nine straight times, and despite winning the wild card, were considered by many to be the superior time. On the other hand, the Angels won the most games in the junior circuit, and actually went 8-1 against the Red Sox in the regular season, with the Halos winning eight in a row.

In game one, the Red Sox would not start Josh Beckett, one of the, if not the best playoff pitchers we have ever seen, and instead go with Jon Lester. Lester, a star in the making, had a breakout season this year, amassing 210.1 innings of 3.21 ERA/3.64 FIP pitching. He had a WHIP of 1.27 and a nice K/BB of 2.30. A hard thrower, Lester threw his 93 mph fastball close to 60% of the time this year, relying on a cutter and a curveball to make up the rest of his deliveries. His season was so good, and perhaps even unexpectedly good, that he has actually been able to shake the reputation as being primarily a cancer survivor, and instead become known as an extremely good pitcher.

The Angels decided to send their ace, John Lackey, to face Lester. Despite missing time earlier in the season, Lackey made 24 starts this year, in which he posted a 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 3.25 K/BB. If there was one blemish, it was that his FIP suggested his ERA should be closer to the 4.53 mark. The Red Sox took game one from the Angels, with Lester giving up one unearned run over six hits in seven innings. He issued just one free pass and fanned seven hitters. Lackey lasted 6.2 innings, giving up four hits and two runs, while walking three and striking out five.

While Lackey has been a good pitcher for quite some time now, he is still remembered for being a rookie pitching in game seven of the 2002 World Series against the Giants. That post-season, he appeared in five games, three of which were starts, posting a 2.42 ERA and 2.25 FIP in 22.1 innings. Since that time, he has made five playoff starts, in which he has produced a 4.34 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 29 innings. His achilles heel has been walks.

In 2002, he issued six walks and struck out 17 hitters. Since then, 15 walks to go with his 21 strikeouts. A team like the Red Sox cannot be given extra baserunners in the form of walks, so if the Angels have any chance of winning this game, not only will they need to break through against Lester, but they will need Lackey to limit his free passes. Otherwise, the Red Sox will more than likely take advantage of these miscues and move onto the ALCS tonight.

In Game 3 of the division series, the oft-frustrating Dave Bush shut down the powerful Phillies offense to bring the Brewers-Phillies series to 2-1. Yesterday, another unlikely “hero” emerged in the form of Joe Blanton, who managed to walk nobody and fan seven hitters, allowing just one run over 6+ innings. The Phillies won the series, their first playoff series win since 1993, and advanced to the NLCS to take on the Dodgers. The Torre Gang swept the Cubs in their division series, thanks to solid pitching and timely hitting with two outs. This sets up quite the interesting matchup given that the two teams played each other eight times after Manny Ramirez was acquired, with the home team sweeping a four-game set each time.

The Dodgers did not have Rafael Furcal in either series, but since both offenses are impressive, this will likely come down to which starting pitchers can truly perform well enough to not only shut down the opposing offense but also limit the bullpen usage. Not that either bullpen is bad, but I am sure fans have more confidence in their starters facing tough hitters in crucial situations than, say, Ryan Madson or Cory Wade, regardless of how effective each has been. Let’s take a look at the potential rotations for both teams, using their regular season statistics:

Phillies
Cole Hamels: 3.09 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 76.0% LOB, 3.70 K/BB, 2.83 WPA/LI
Brett Myers: 4.55 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 72.6% LOB, 2.51 K/BB, -0.40 WPA/LI
Jamie Moyer: 3.71 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 76.6% LOB, 1.98 K/BB, 1.01 WPA/LI
Joe Blanton: 4.20 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 74.4% LOB, 1.58 K/BB, -0.07 WPA/LI

Blanton’s stats are strictly in a Phillies uniform. Brett Myers is a much better pitcherthan his ERA, FIP, and WPA/LI would indicate, and since returning to the majors at the end of July, has been fantastic in all but two starts. Unfortunately for the Phillies, those starts were his final two of the regular season. Fortunately, however, he rebounded quite nicely and tossed a gem against the Brewers in the division series. Moyer was not very accurate in Game 3, and was squeezed a bit by the home plate umpire, so he is the wild card of the Phillies rotation.

If he is getting calls and pitching in and out like he did during the regular season, he will be very tough. If, however, he struggles with control and is not getting calls, there honestly is no point in keeping him in the game. 82-mph fastballs might be tough when the ump is generous with the strike zone, but as he has to adjust to a tighter zone, they become very hittable. Quick sidenote: all four of these guys have 10-letters in their names.

Dodgers
Derek Lowe: 3.24 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 70.8% LOB, 3.27 K/BB, 2.61 WPA/LI
Chad Billingsley: 3.14 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 78% LOB, 2.51 K/BB, 0.91 WPA/LI
Hiroki Kuroda: 3.73 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 68.5% LOB, 2.76 K/BB, 0.62 WPA/LI
Clayton Kershaw: 4.26 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 75.7% LOB, 1.92 K/BB, -0.61 WPA/LI

Derek Lowe had an outstanding season and is going to land a hefty contract this off-season. His ability to strike batters out, keep balls in play on the ground, and limit his walks deemed him over two and a half wins better than an average pitcher this year. If you are unsure just how good that is, look at Cole Hamels‘ season, a 2.83 WPA/LI, and it should become clear how good Lowe’s season really turned out. Lowe is always tough on the Phillies lineup, primarily due to their reliance on the longball for runs. They will need to steal bases and be more patient with him, rather than attempt to launch everything in orbit.

Billingsley is very interesting because his season is pretty much what fans in Philadelphia hoped for from Brett Myers. Both are power-pitchers with nasty breaking pitches. They also both had nearly identical K/BB ratios and WHIPs this season. Whether or not it speaks volumes to Lowe’s effectiveness against the team or Billingsley’s repertoire—if there is anything the Phillies offense does well it is hit 93+ mph fastballs—and lack of experience, the word around Philadelphia is that Billingsley should be a much easier game than Lowe. I would highly doubt either game will be easy, but Myers-Billingsley is very intriguing because both pitchers essentially rely on the same ingredients to concoct their outs-recipe.

Kuroda won’t win the rookie of the year award but he should merit some love in that regard. Despite a well below average strand rate of 68.5%, Hiroki produced just a 3.73 ERA. His controllable skills were even better, earning him a 3.59 FIP. The fourth spot in their rotation will likely go to Clayton Kershaw, as he is a lefty while the other three are righties. Torre seems enamored with using Greg Maddux out of the bullpen, but I would not be surprised if Maddux gets the call at some point in this series.

This has all the makings of a very fun series, with top-notch pitching, impressive starting rotations, and both finesse and flames out of the bullpen. I firmly believe that if the Dodgers had Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez all season long, they would have won more games than the Cubs, or at least been within striking distance. They are not the team they were in May, and are much more potent now, with a scarier 1-8 than the Phillies. If Myers is on, then both Game 1 and Game 2 will essentially see ace vs. ace. I can honestly see this going all seven games, but either team will need to fire on all cylinders to take the series, and neither can get satisfied after taking a lead.

Let’s face it: Khalil Greene stunk this year. He entered 2008 as a .253/.306/.446 true talent hitter, projected to hit 35 doubles and launch 20 home runs. These numbers may not be remarkable, but they look Ruthian compared to his .213/.260/.339 line in 105 games this season. You won’t find him on the leaderboards here but if you adjust the qualifier to those with 400+ plate appearances, Greene can be found second from the bottom—to just Michael Bourn—with his .599 OPS, and fifth from the bottom amongst senior circuit hitters in WPA/LI, with a -1.56. In about two-thirds of the season, Greene was one and a half win worse than an average hitter.

His strikeout rate, which was projected to be around 21% this year was actually 25.7%. His BABIP, which had ranged from .277 to .287 over the last three years, dropped to .262, which is not monumental given that he seemed like 15-25 points below .300 was his true talent level, but still a cause for his poor production. Khalil’s Marcel projection for Isolated Power was .192 and he finished sixty-six points below, at .126.

His fielding also took a hit. After recording a +13 in 2006 and a +7 last year, Greene lost range to his right, at which he had been quite good the last few years, and his ability to range left worsened as well, ultimately resulting in a -4. His frustration at poor production came to its boiling point on July 30, against the Diamondbacks.

After recording his one-hundredth strikeout of the season, Greene punched a storage cabinet at Petco Park, breaking a bone in his left hand. He missed the rest of the season, meaning there would be no opportunity to regress or improve. For reference, via WPA/LI, in the national league, only Jeff Franceour, Michael Bourn, Jeff Keppinger, and Cesar Izturis had worse seasons. As the title of this post suggests, however, there is more to this story. Because Greene’s injury was self-inflicted and not the byproduct of an on field incident, Sandy Alderson and the Padres are looking to get their hands on about 1.47 of the 4.5 million dollars Greene was set to make this year.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this. I understand baseball is a business and yadda yadda, but the team was not going anywhere this year, at least by July 30, and so Greene’s frustration-induced-injury didn’t necessarily prevent them from making the playoffs. If you’re in Alderson’s shoes, do you look to recollect some of the money too?