As it came time for this season’s action, two pitchers I had my eyes on were Dustin McGowan of the Blue Jays and Shawn Hill of the Nationals. Both had displayed the ability to succeed in the major leagues in 2007, showed very solid controllable skills, and looked poised to take the next step in 2008. Hill’s 2007 was by no means reminiscent of Pedro circa 1999-2000, but he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 4.03 FIP, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 2.60 K/BB. Via WPA/LI, Hill was worth right around one win above an average pitcher, despite making just 19 starts.

This year he was plagued with injuries right from the get-go, missing time due to a strained right forearm, then right elbow tightness, and finally right forearm tightness, an injury serious enough to keep him out of action from June 25 until the end of the season. In the time he did toe the rubber, he posted a 5.83 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a -1.18 WPA/LI, making him worth over a win less than an average starting pitcher. Fortunately, these numbers do not tell the whole story, as his BABIP was an otherworldly .373, and his strand rate was way below average because of this, at just 62%. Looking solely at his controllable skills, Hill’s FIP was 4.06, virtually identical to last year’s.

If the problems were due to the injuries, and the time off can help get him back on track, great, however he is very likely going to be on injury watch the rest of his career. I can remember watching Mitch Williams break down Hill’s mechanics before, and with Hill’s windup, his legs are planted while his arm still has its ways to go. This means he is basically throwing with all arm, which is an injury just waiting to happen. Williams proposed Hill alter his windup or else his career is going to consist of solid 16-start seasons with the other time spent rehabbing or on the disabled list.

McGowan, last year, posted a 4.08 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, a 2.36 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP, and was worth 1.5 wins above an average pitcher via WPA/LI. His 68% strand rate was below the league average but his BABIP was somewhat significantly better than the rest of the league. Entering this season, he was being counted on to be the key third member of what could be the best rotation in baseball. His numbers were not as “poor” as Hill’s, but did not signal a step forward by any means. His 3.81 FIP, very similar to last year’s, suggests his 4.37 ERA was too high, and his .316 BABIP led to a higher WHIP of 1.37. Since his strand rate remained the same, the increase in BABIP led to more baserunners who came around to score. His K/BB dropped a bit, but only from 2.36 to 2.24.

Dustin was previously diagnosed with a rotator cuff tear before it was decided he would need to undergo surgery to repair fraying in the glenoid labrum of his right shoulder. From what I have gathered, pitchers tend to resume mound throwing around seven months following such a surgery, though the rehab time could be longer. Additionally, if he experiences a problem with his rotator cuff again, he could miss the entire 2009 season. The Blue Jays expect him to be back in action in May, however. Injuries prevented both of these potential stars from taking the next step this year, so we will have another year of wondering what if, but next year will definitely be pivotal in understanding where they might be headed.

The other night, while watching the Braves/Phillies game, I could not help but notice that, with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann getting a day off, Bobby Cox’s lineup looked terrible, registering a zero on the intimidation-ometer. Granted, McCann is still a regular even though Chipper’s days off are becoming the norm rather than the exception, but on September 22, this is the lineup Cox put out there, followed by their WPA/LI and OPS:

Josh Anderson, CF, -0.41, .649
Martin Prado, 3B, 1.10, .849
Kelly Johnson, 2B, 0.97, .799
Omar Infante, LF, -0.06, .762
Jeff Franceour, RF, -2.42, .653
Casey Kotchman, 1B, -0.17, .641
Clint Sammons, C, -0.56, .426
Brent Lillibridge, SS, -0.50, .515

Now, Kotchman’s numbers are with Atlanta only, Sammons and Lillibridge have yet to rack up 80 plate appearances, and these guys are not considered top prospects for nothing, but as a pitcher, wouldn’t you salivate over facing this batting order? Omar Infante batting cleanup? Seriously? Is that supposed to scare pitchers?

Interestingly enough, when Dave and I were discussing this, he mentioned that the Mariners recent lineups could give this one a run for its money. On the same day, September 22, against the Angels, the Mariners had this lineup:

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 0.09, .753
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, -2.16, .661
Raul Ibanez, LF, 1.37, .856
Jose Lopez, 1B, -0.27, .752
Jeremy Reed, CF, -0.70, .673
Timothy Hulett, DH, -0.18, .624
Matthew Tuiasosopo, 3B, -0.56, .395
Luis Valbuena, 2B, -0.29, .583
Rob Johnson, C, -0.41, .190

Again, Johjima is the regular catcher over Johnson, but it isn’t as if you would be inserting someone like McCann back into the lineup. Although, compared to Johnson’s .190 OPS, Johjima’s numbers likely would look like McCann’s. The Mariners lineup has Ichiro, Ibanez, and perhaps Jose Lopez as somewhat of a threat, while the rest do not look so good. The Braves have Johnson, a surprising Prado, a Kotchman just waiting to “bust out” and an about league average Infante. So, the question is, even though these might not be the exact everyday lineups of these teams, as an opposing pitcher, which of these September 22 lineups would you rather face, and why?

Mike Mussina did not have too great of a season last year. He barely surmounted the 150 innings plateau even with 27 starts and a relief appearance. He fanned just 91 hitters, a 5.39 K/9, his lowest rate since 1994. Coupled with a 2.07 BB/9, Mussina’s 2.60 K/BB was his lowest since 1993. Surrendering 188 hits in those 152 innings helped produce a career worst 1.47 WHIP. Stranding just 66% of those baserunners resulted in all time high ERA of 5.15. With numbers like that and a fastball that struggled to touch 86-87 miles per hour, the end appeared to be rapidly approaching this potential and oft-debated hall of fame candidate.

There were some good signs, however, as the hits surrendered hinged upon an unusually high .340 BABIP. Additionally, despite 5.15 ERA, his FIP was a solid 4.01, which might not be the caliber of a #1 pitcher, but definitely what a team should be looking for in a #3-#4 guy. Entering this season, the Marcel projection system saw Mussina as a 4.53 ERA/3.95 FIP pitcher with a 2.83 K/BB and a 1.38 WHIP. His numbers were projected to regress a bit, but not all the way back to the Moose from the late 90’s/early 2000’s.

With a week left in the season, Mussina has made many forget about last season’s numbers as he has been a rock for the Yankees staff. In 32 starts, he has pitched in 189.1 innings, and while he has gotten hit around a bit to the tune of 207 hits surrendered and a .326 BABIP, his WHIP has dropped to 1.25. The major reason for this is his 1.38 BB/9, which happens to be the lowest of his entire career. Coupled with a nice 6.70 K/9, Mussina’s K/BB now rests at 4.86, one of the highest in his career. The strand rate has regressed to the league average 72%, and with the reduced amount of baserunners, period, this has helped him to a 3.57 ERA. His FIP of 3.38 suggests it should be even lower.

His fastball has gotten even slower this year, as he averages around 84-86 mph on his “heater” but something noteworthy is his change of rates on balls in play. His career rate of grounders is 43%, and from 2002-2007, it ranged from 40-43%. This year, however, he is at 48%. It is very tough to discuss Mussina right now without mentioning his hall of fame candidacy, so I will leave that for the comments section below, but if he were to retire following this season, going out on top so to speak, what do you consider his chances to be? Or does he need one more season like this to cement his place in Cooperstown?

Much of the talk this week surrounding the Yankees has centered on the final game at Yankee Stadium. It is natural for nostalgic love to kick in when something widely considered an historical monument reaches its last legs, but what many have not discussed thus far is how one of the players who calls the stadium home is in the midst of his best season to date. Yes, Mariano Rivera, the 39-yr old closer for the Yankees, the best postseason closer of all time and likely the best overall closer as well, is putting the finishing touches on a masterpiece of a season.

Someone his age, who throws virtually one pitch, will not usually improve as the years pile on, but what he has done this year is nothing short of remarkable. And, for the record, I will be able to show just how great this year is without ever mentioning his saves total. In 68.1 innings, Rivera has given up a measly 41 hits, just 4 of which are home runs. Get ready for his other controllable skills. He has struck out 74 hitters and issued just 6 free passes! 6! That is a 12.33 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is 0.69, and when you add in his two hit batsmen it does not get much higher.

With an 87.6% LOB, which could very well be sustainable for a closer of his ilk, Mo has an ERA of just 1.45 this year. His FIP suggests it should be around 2.06, but still, 2.06 is not too shabby either. His 1996 season was quite dominant as well, but he was still setting up John Wetteland at that juncture. Since 1997, when Rivera became the full-time closer, he has never been better than right now, as he is posting highs/lows in ERA, FIP, WHIP, BAA, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and LOB.

Looking at his win based metrics, his 4.36 WPA ranks second in baseball amongst relievers to Brad Lidge, who by all accounts is also having a fantastic season. Rivera leads all relievers in WPA/LI, however. WPA is a better stat to look at for closers primarily because they are pitching in high leverage situations, and they are going to be judged by how well they perform in like situations. It would still depend on how often the closer gets to appear and in what situations, but suffice it to say, Rivera has been the best closer in the AL this year (sorry K-Rod), and only Brad Lidge is going to give him a run for his money in the entire sport. This may be the last year of Yankee Stadium, but its beloved closer is going out in style, producing the best closed season of his career… oddly enough, it will be the first time his team misses the playoffs since he took over the reigns.

The Chicago Cubs are going to win the NL Central en route to their second straight playoff appearance. They have been firing on all cylinders virtually all year and bolstered an already solid rotation by adding Rich Harden, who has been nothing short of fantastic since joining the team. The Philadelphia Phillies, with just six games to go, a 1.5 game lead on the Mets and a 3.0 game lead on the Brewers, look like they very well may be heading to Dane Cook October baseball for the second straight season. Two key players in this regard are Carlos Zambrano and Brett Myers, big pitchers with plus arms who could largely determine the fates of their respective teams.

Each has had a very interesting week, however. Zambrano tossed a no-hitter against the Astros, at Miller Park (not the home park of either the Cubs or Astros), posting the following line: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. And no, nobody in the Cubs front office decided to protest the ball four in the hopes that their appeal would result in a perfect game. How did he follow that act? Well, against the Cardinals, Big Z went just 1.2 innings, surrendering 6 hits and 8 earned runs, while walking 3 and striking out just 1 hitter. Talk about opposite extremes. When put together, Zambrano had a two-game stretch of 10.2 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, and 11 K, which results in a 6.75 ERA. No way anyone would, without knowing, guess that the above line divides into a no-hitter and, well, an all-hitter.

Since his callup, Brett Myers has been brilliant for the Phillies, one of the major reasons they have stayed alive and taken the division and/or wild card lead, however you choose to look at it. From August 9 to September 14, Myers made 8 starts, compiling this line: 62 IP, 52 H, 11 ER, 11 BB, 62 K, good for a 1.60 ERA. The last start in that span, on September 14, Myers tossed a complete game against the Brewers, going 9 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. How did he follow that masterpiece up? Well, he took on the fiesty fish from Florida on Friday night and promptly posted this line: 4 IP, 9 H, 10 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. His ERA actually rose from 4.06 to 4.46. His two-game stretch? 13 IP, 11 H, 11 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, a 7.62 ERA. After giving up 11 ER in 8 starts, he managed to give up 10 in one outing.

Interestingly enough for Zambrano, he is a repeat “offender.” On July 29, in Milwaukee, he pitched a five-hit shutout with nine strikeouts. Two starts later against the Cardinals he surrendered 9 ER and 10 hits. On August 21, against the Reds, he gave up one run over seven innings of work. His next start, in Pittsburgh, 8 hits and 6 runs in 4.1 innings. All of this seems very Jeff Weaver. Make no mistake, both Z and Myers are tantamount to their team’s success, but it is rather strange how pitchers so good can look so very bad, and ironic how these awful outings followed tremendous ones.

The Cy Young Award in the American League is more than likely going to go to Cliff Lee, and deservedly so. After all, he leads all starters in WPA/LI, has the highest K/BB in baseball, the lowest WHIP, the most innings, the most complete games, ranks third in strikeouts… oh wait, that’s Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays. Throughout this entire season we have watched in shock, disbelief, and awe as Cliff Lee put together one tremendous season. His season, however, is not that much better than Roy Halladay’s, and many fans could make very good cases that Halladay has had the better year.

On the season, which happens to be the best full season of Doc’s career, Roy has a 5.06 WPA/LI (5.19 when you count his one relief appearance), a 5.60 K/BB ratio, a 1.06 WHIP, 2.79 ERA, and a 2.98 FIP. By all accounts, his is one of the best season’s over the last eight or nine years, but it is very likely it will not be recognized as such when the baseball writer’s vote. Now, I’m never one to cry over “injustices” especially when these athletes are making more money than my entire street combined, but in a year when K-Rod broke the saves record and Cliff Lee came out of nowhere to post ridiculous numbers, Halladay will be lucky to even receive some first or second place votes.

If you look past the rates, his numbers get even better, as his 228.2 IP lead all AL starters, as do his 8 complete games. His 196 strikeouts ranks third in the junior circuit. W-L record, as we know, is a terrible evaluative barometer, but it is extremely hard for many to look at a record like Lee’s 22-2 and think that someone who went 18-11 was more effective. Run support could help explain this, though; Lee has the fourth highest at 6.16 RS/9 while Halladay’s is twelfth lowest at 4.57 RS/9. If Halladay had anywhere near the run support of Lee, and his record was more like 23-5 or 21-7, don’t you think more people would be discussing him as a legitimate contender?

This just magnifies the problems with W-L record, not just in the mainstream but even in the world of analysis, because whether realized or not, it is very, very difficult to block the W-L out of our minds. Moving forward, Halladay is much more likely to repeat, or come close to repeating, this year’s performance. Even though both have very sustainable BABIP’s hovering around the .300 mark, Lee’s LOB% is close to 80%, which might be sustainable for Randy Johnson 2001-03 or Pedro 1999-00, but probably not the Cliffmeister. Additionally, his HR/FB is an unsustainably low 4.9%. Halladay’s numbers in these areas are very close to the league average.

Aspects like moving forward or which pitcher is “more real” are not taken into account in a Cy Young Award race, and Lee will very likely win the award based on his performance and how good of a story it is, but make no mistake, Roy Halladay is putting the finishing touches on his best year, a masterpiece of a season, one just as good, if not better than Lee’s, and he deserves all the accolades that may or may not come his way.

On February 6, 1998, the Yankees acquired Chuck Knoblauch from the Twins for a four-player package including prospects Eric Milton and Christian Guzman. Following a relatively poor rookie season in which his OPS+ was just 38, Guzman’s sophomore campaign saw him smack 25 doubles, 20 triples and jump to a 70 OPS+. Next year, in 2001, he performed so well that, despite playing no more than 118 games, he finished 16th in MVP voting. From 2002-2004, his OPS+ regressed to the seemingly expected range of 77-79. The Washington Nationals liked his fielding, approach, and perhaps his still not yet reached potential and inked him to a nice contract prior to the 2005 season.

Guzman promptly pulled a “Beltran,” which is my new term for someone who performs poorly in the first year of a big and/or new contract. During that season, he posted a Bloomquist-like .574 OPS. Christian missed the entire 2006 season, but returned towards the end of last year, playing 46 games and posting an .846 OPS. Though it was less than one third of the season, his rates were better than ever, leading some in the fantasy world to buy low, in the hope that he could parlay that production into a very solid 2008 season.

He has not disappointed this year. In 132 games, his OPS is .787, which is the highest it has even been in a season in which he played 120+ games. His 9 home runs are one off of his career high, and his 34 doubles established a new career high. Additionally, his rate of strikeouts is at a personal low of 10%. Unfortunately, his rate of walks is also a very, very low 4%, the fifth lowest in the senior circuit. Guzman has always built his OBP largely off of his batting average, and this year is no different. With a BABIP of ~.340 and a very low walk percentage a good chance exists that his current numbers are not as much driven by skill as luck.

On the defensive side, he is currently at +15 at shortstop, good for fourth at the position, meaning he is producing nicely on both sides of the ball. His numbers may regress or he may establish himself capable of posting higher BABIPs, but this is the first season he has played over 130 games in which his production has been of this caliber. He may have gotten laughed at as an all-star due to each team needing a representative, but his season has definitely been all-star worthy.

Raise your hand if you have heard of Vernon Wells. You know, the Blue Jays centerfielder who served as an ESPN analyst in the offseason? The guy who hits about 27-30 home runs each season, has an OPS close to .900, and plays stellar defense. Right, we all know him… but do we really know him? After finding out that he has been one of the more productive players over the last thirty days I perused his career numbers, as well as this season, and was a bit shocked. See, I just assumed he put up seasonal lines like the one mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph. I, like many others, probably saw him in an all-star game, saw one really great season of his, and constructed the rest based on reputation.

In actuality, Wells’ current .831 OPS would be one of the highest of his career should the season end today. He has only played 98 games, so the counting stats are lower, but his offensive rates are right in line, or better than, those in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2007. This leaves just 2003 and 2006 as being standout and tremendous seasons offensively. Here, I figured that 2006 was the norm, when he had an .899 OPS, blasted 32 home runs, stole 17 bases, and finished fourth amongst centerfielders with a +14 in the field.

In the field, he has steadily declined since 2006, going from +14, to +7, to this year’s -14, meaning that he has made fourteen plays less than an average centerfielder this season. Last year, he had a very low .265 BABIP which contributed to his low .706 OPS, but this year it has risen to .300; however, his ISO is at .190, down from the .200-.233 range in other seasons. Essentially, Wells has been able to get hits at a decent pace but they do not account for as much power as most in Toronto would like. Add in his declining defense and he is quickly heading past disappointment-ville.

Maybe he can have a tremendous September and increase the rates. We’ve seen Ryan Howard make significant leaps in short times before. Over the last thirty days, Wells is hitting .321/.369/.571, a .940 OPS, with a .250 ISO. This is the Vernon Wells that many fans think of or that fans in Toronto hope for, but at this stage it just seems more like a teasing hot streak than sustainable production. Perhaps the defense this year is an outlier and perhaps the injuries have prevented him from reaching his full potential, but he definitely seems to be a case where the reputation inflates his actual production and causes ignorance to those who don’t astutely pay attention.

On occasion I like to peruse the leaderboards here by position and see which players rank atop or on the bottom of the WPA/LI spectrum. Yesterday, however, I discovered a disturbing pattern while doing this for the junior circuit. It seemed that the bottom of each position was populated by members of the Oakland Athletics. The A’s stayed in the playoff race for half of the season before shipping away parts like Rich Harden, signaling a throwing in of the towel, so to speak. Their poor performance from that point on was largely attributed to the trading away of Dan Haren in the off-season and Harden in-season. From what these numbers showed, though, their struggles have a whole heck of a lot to do with their offense.

Since WPA/LI is a counting stat, I did not use the qualified only field, but found that all but Frank Thomas and Jack Cust were above 0 in this category. In fact, some of the others are so below 0 that they rank within the bottom five or bottom ten at their respective positions, if not at the very bottom of the list. Here are some of the players and their context-neutral wins:

Kurt Suzuki, C, -0.89
Daric Barton, 1B, -1.81 (lowest)
Mark Ellis, 2B, -1.16 (3rd lowest)
Bobby Crosby, SS, -2.87 (lowest)
Jack Hannahan, 3B, -0.81 (5th lowest)

Additionally, five of their six outfielders rank in the bottom twenty, as Emil Brown is ninth from the bottom, Carlos Gonzalez is eleventh, and Eric Patterson, Rajai Davis, and Travis Buck rank eighteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth from the bottom. The WPA/LI of these players range from Buck’s -0.72 to Brown’s -1.37. The other outfielder, Ryan Sweeney, is at -0.01, making him essentially a league average hitter, keeping him away from the bottom twenty. That leaves the Athletics with Jack Cust, Frank Thomas, and Ryan Sweeney as average or above average hitters, with Cust being far and away the best.

The team has an MLB-worst .683 OPS on the season, from a .318 OBP/.365 SLG. To put that in perspective, it would be the equivalent to having Felipe Lopez occupying every spot in the lineup this year. Their pitching may still be relatively solid and may only improve in the years to come, but the offense of their personnel needs drastic improvement, regardless of how solid defensively some of these players may be.

The best part of what analysts call a “slash line” is that we get to see the on-base percentage and slugging percentage stacked up next to the traditional barometer, batting average. Looking at the three of these metrics, side by side, can help us understand which players are great all-around, which are purely power hitters, or which ones have a tremendous eye. For instance, a .333/.420/.560 slash line looks Pujols-esque; the player has a high percentage of hits that consist of singles as well as those of the extra base variety. A Dunn-type line of .244/.368/.571 would offer that the player has a great eye, as his OBP vastly exceeds his BA, and that he is a great power hitter, because although the BA is low, the value of the hits put into the equation are, more often than not, greater than a single.

When we see the slash line, though, sometimes it looks a bit “off.” We are almost trained to see the three numbers increase as we move from left to right, but occasionally a player will post a higher OBP than SLG, which looks nutty in slash line form. Someone hitting .273/.332/.328 just looks, well, different from the mold. It tells us that he has almost no power to his name and that the vast majority of his hits are singles.

This year, five players that qualify for the leaderboard are posting higher OBPs than SLGs: Willy Taveras, Gregor Blanco, Chone Figgins, Jason Kendall, and Ryan Theriot. To no surprise, these five players have combined for a whopping six home runs this year. If a player has absolutely no power yet still holds down a major league job, he either must play Ozzie Smith-caliber defense, or serve as a menace on the basepaths. As we might expect, while these five combine for just about half the amount of home runs Ryan Howard has over the last month, they have stolen 141 bases between them.

Curious to see if players have posted a higher OBP than SLG for an extended period of time, I probed the Baseball Reference Play Index, looking for anyone from 1983-2008 with at least 3,000 PA. The following thirteen names surfaced:

1. Dave Magadan, .390/.377
2. Willie Randolph, .375/.347
3. Quilvio Veras, .372/.362
4. Luis Castillo, .367/.356
5. Walt Weiss, .351/.326
6. Ozzie Smith, .351/.346
7. Mark McLemore, .349/.341
8. Jose Oquendo, .346/.317
9. Otis Nixon, .343/.314
10. Wally Backman, .343/.335
11. Garry Pettis, .332/.309
12. Darren Lewis, .323/.322
13. Felix Fermin, .305/.303

Pretty safe to say these guys fit the bill described above, as either defensive wizards, menaces on the basepaths, or utility players that can fill any and all gaps for teams. While there were thirteen players that have posted a higher OBP than SLG over 3000+ PA, the number seems relatively small given a 25-26 year span. None of these players are hall of famers, other than Ozzie, but it is still pretty remarkable they were able to stick around for so long with next to no power in their arsenal.