Reputations Can Lead To Ignorance

Raise your hand if you have heard of Vernon Wells. You know, the Blue Jays centerfielder who served as an ESPN analyst in the offseason? The guy who hits about 27-30 home runs each season, has an OPS close to .900, and plays stellar defense. Right, we all know him… but do we really know him? After finding out that he has been one of the more productive players over the last thirty days I perused his career numbers, as well as this season, and was a bit shocked. See, I just assumed he put up seasonal lines like the one mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph. I, like many others, probably saw him in an all-star game, saw one really great season of his, and constructed the rest based on reputation.

In actuality, Wells’ current .831 OPS would be one of the highest of his career should the season end today. He has only played 98 games, so the counting stats are lower, but his offensive rates are right in line, or better than, those in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2007. This leaves just 2003 and 2006 as being standout and tremendous seasons offensively. Here, I figured that 2006 was the norm, when he had an .899 OPS, blasted 32 home runs, stole 17 bases, and finished fourth amongst centerfielders with a +14 in the field.

In the field, he has steadily declined since 2006, going from +14, to +7, to this year’s -14, meaning that he has made fourteen plays less than an average centerfielder this season. Last year, he had a very low .265 BABIP which contributed to his low .706 OPS, but this year it has risen to .300; however, his ISO is at .190, down from the .200-.233 range in other seasons. Essentially, Wells has been able to get hits at a decent pace but they do not account for as much power as most in Toronto would like. Add in his declining defense and he is quickly heading past disappointment-ville.

Maybe he can have a tremendous September and increase the rates. We’ve seen Ryan Howard make significant leaps in short times before. Over the last thirty days, Wells is hitting .321/.369/.571, a .940 OPS, with a .250 ISO. This is the Vernon Wells that many fans think of or that fans in Toronto hope for, but at this stage it just seems more like a teasing hot streak than sustainable production. Perhaps the defense this year is an outlier and perhaps the injuries have prevented him from reaching his full potential, but he definitely seems to be a case where the reputation inflates his actual production and causes ignorance to those who don’t astutely pay attention.