While we have discussed here how solid or awful performance very early in the season can “make or break” the reputation of a player for that given season, so too can similar performance at the end of the season. Most don’t remember that Carlos Delgado stunk early on, but since they cannot remember exactly when he started performing well, feel it has been for a very long time, maybe all year. A player in a somewhat similar situation is Ryan Howard. Howard, the Phillies first baseman and former NL MVP, got off to an extremely slow start, but has been so good recently that he is now creeping his way into award discussions.

Over the last 30 days, Howard is second in baseball with a 1.41 WPA/LI, leads baseball with both 11 home runs and 29 RBI, and has added 10 doubles as well. While RBIs are not the greatest evaluative tool, they are gospel to the mainstream, and he is not disappointing in that area. In this span, he has hit .291/.381/.709, a 1.090 OPS.

His overall WPA/LI is just 2.08, meaning that prior to this recent 30-day stretch, Howard had gone the whole season being no more than 2/3 of a win better than an average hitter. Sure, he has 44 HR and 133 RBI, and seems to be on a streak hot enough of helping him reach 48-50 longballs, but his numbers have taken serious hits. In 2006, he posted a .425 OBP/.659 SLG. Last year, a .392 OBP/.584 SLG. This year, however, even with the home run and doubles and RBIs, his slash line included a .332 OBP/.526 SLG. His batting average over the last three years has gone from .313 to .268 to its current .244.

Since his extra-base hits appear to be the same, it seems that Howard is just plain hitting less. His BABIP helps explain that, as it ranged from .336-.363 in 2005-07, and is just .283 today. Add to that his dearth of walks this year—108 in 2006, 107 in 2007, just 74 in 2008—and it’s no wonder why his slash line has plummeted. On the season, his .858 OPS is not terrible, but many would claim his numbers are much better based on how great he looks right now, “when it matters.” This same group likely would not believe that teammate Jayson Werth, with an .881 OPS, has a higher count in the same metric.

As an analyst, it’s important to remember that Howard’s dominance in the month of September so far does not come close to telling the whole story. As a fan, however, it is very exciting for this guy to finally start performing like everyone in the Philadelphia area has wanted him to for months. If the Phillies make the playoffs this year, he is definitely going to receive MVP votes, as unjustified as it may be, but that’s how it seems to go. Perform tremendous early on and stay the course for the rest and your reputation will remain in tact or perform tremendous at season’s end and it’s all anyone will remember.

Last week, Matthew examined the idea of anchoring, or how our perception of a player’s performance on the whole can largely be influenced by very good or very poor production in the first month of the season. No matter what happens from that point forward, unless the player in question belongs to “our” team, we are going to instinctively jump back to the April performance to gauge how he is doing. It is with this in mind that I bring up Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers, the offensively-talented youngster that is usually thought of as a force to be reckoned with when he steps up to the plate.

From 2005-2007, Cabrera posted OPS counts ranging from .947-.998, exhibiting the kind of patience and power that makes any fan of an opposing team feel uneasy. After an off-season trade from the Marlins to the Tigers, some speculated that the change of scenery, or the change in leagues that is, may effect his numbers, much like those of Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre. Now, Beltran and Beltre had poor inaugural seasons with their new teams but bounced back quite nicely after that. The Tigers got off to an incredibly disappointing start, and Cabrera’s numbers in April were not necessarily indicative of his proven track record.

He was hitting .270/.359/.470, an .829 OPS, with 5 doubles and 5 home runs. His relatively slow start, coupled with the poor performance of the team, led many to believe this speculation was coming true, and that Cabrera would have a down season. Since May 1st, Cabrera has hit .293/.350/.543, an .893 OPS, with 27 doubles and 28 home runs. On the whole, that brings his seasonal line to .289/.351/.530, an .882 OPS, with 32 doubles and 33 home runs, numbers very similar to those he posted in 2004, his first full year in the majors. In fact, his current OPS+ of 130 is the same as it was back in 2004.

His line has definitely improved since April, but it does not appear that anyone has realized. Not many know he’s got 33 jimmy-jacks this year, or that his ISO of .241 is the second-highest of his career. They just know that he had a slower-than-usual April, and are basing assessments off of that. Granted, his season is well off the Marcel projection of .328/.408/.558, a .966 OPS, but there are some interesting reasons why. First, his BB % is the lowest it has been in a full season in his career, meaning quite simply that he isn’t walking as much. That is one reason his OBP is much lower—the SLG is actually quite similar to year’s past, but the OBP is off. Additionally, his BABIP has ranged from .330-.382 in his career, even being projected at .371 this year. As of right now, it is .312, still technically above average but much lower than what he has established himself capable of. Because of this, not as many hits are falling in, which affects all three components of the slash line.

Cabrera is on a new team, at a new fielding position, in the league with superior talent. All three of those factors could play a big part in his performance this year, or they could have nothing to do with them. If the BABIP is any indication, it seems like an outlier. He could very well “bounce back” next season and post numbers similar to those in Florida, as his true talent level would suggest, but he will need to be a bit more patient at the plate, swinging at less pitches out of the zone, as his percentage is higher this year. A team could do much worse than employ a first baseman with an OPS right around .900, but Cabrera has shown himself capable of so much more than that. His early season performance may still be affecting his current seasonal reputation, but he is still having a very good year, one extremely similar to his 2004 campaign.

Teams either in a pennant race or that believe they are in a pennant race tend to make moves to bolster some area of their roster in which a perceived weakness exists. The Brewers landed CC Sabathia. The Cubs traded for Rich Harden. The Mets went for smaller upgrades like Luis Ayala and Fernando Tatis, believing that those underachieving would eventually regress. The Astros turned to the likes of Randy Wolf and Latroy Hawkins. While the Cardinals, as Matthew noted last week, stood pat, the Phillies attempted to fix a problem in their starting rotation by bringing in Joe Blanton.

Now, on paper, Blanton is nowhere near as impressive as Sabathia or Harden, but Phillies fans and the local media justified the trade based on the idea that Blanton is an “innings eater.” He apparently would pitch well enough to keep the team in the game, and long enough to avoid having to overuse a bullpen that the team has been reliant upon. I’m not sure exactly what eating innings means, though. If it means that Blanton would get the definition of a quality start, IE, 6 IP and 3 ER, or that he would go for 7 IP and give up 3-4 ER, that at least sounds plausible and could very well be positive for a team with an offense like the Phillies.

He has been giving up the 3-4 runs consistently, except they aren’t coming in 6-7 innings. Rather, Blanton has not exactly been eating innings in red pinstripes, as he has gone for 59.2 total innings in 11 starts, an average of just over 5 IP/GS. Entering yesterday’s action against the Brewers, just 4 of his 10 starts with the Phillies involved pitching 6 or 7 innings. Interspersed throughout were appearances of 2 IP, 5 IP, 5 IP, 5.2 IP, 4 IP, and 5 IP. When someone advertised with only one real positive trait suddenly fails to exhibit that trait, well, you can imagine what that person looks like to fans.

Most of Blanton’s issues have been chalked up as control problems, as he throws plenty of pitches, is walking more hitters, and is running deeper counts. His BB/9 in Oakland earlier on was 2.48, but it has been 4.39 while on the Phillies. His K/9 has risen to over one more batter per, as well, but not enough to counteract the increase in free passes. All told, his 4.53 ERA/5.36 FIP for the Phillies have not exactly killed them in the standings or severely hindered their playoff chances, but they have not done much to help. Yesterday, Blanton made arguably his most important start of the season, going 7 IP and giving up 3 ER to the Brewers in the first game of a doubleheader that eventually put the Phillies and Brewers into a wild card tie.

He has been just about the definition of average with the Phillies, as his partial season sports a 0.05 WPA/LI, but the fact that he was brought in to “fix” a situation makes his numbers and performance seem much worse. He has not lived up to expectations as an “innings eater” consistently and is nothing more than a fourth starter, but he has kept Adam Eaton out of the rotation, so at least he has that. With several Phillies starters making appearances on short-rest recently, they are going to need Blanton to build upon his performance yesterday or else this will end up being a carbon copy of the 2001-2006 seasons, where the Phillies have great personnel, and plenty of talent, but end up a few games short of the promised land.

Over the last thirty days, no starting pitcher has been even close to touching Roy Oswalt’s 2.48 WPA/LI. Derek Lowe, as great as he has been lately, is still a full win lower. Third on that list, however, is Francisco Liriano, the Twins lefty phenom who underwent surgery and made his return to the big leagues this year. In his early outings, he simply stunk. He wasn’t striking hitters out, walked many, and gave up plenty of hits. This earned him a demotion wherein he could hopefully, for the sake of Twins fans, work on his kinks and get that confidence and swagger back.

Prior to this recent 30-day stretch, he had made 5 starts, for just 22 innings, in which 24 hits and 16 earned runs were surrendered, along with 18 walks and 17 strikeouts. Recently, however, he made 6 starts, for 40 innings, giving up just 28 hits and 6 earned runs, walking no more than 7 and fanning 34. With a WHIP under 0.90, an ERA of 1.35, a K/BB nearing 5.0, Liriano has earned produced a 1.32 WPA/LI in these six starts. This more than made up for the poor performance early on as his seasonal wins added have gone from -0.18 to 1.14.

He may have been dominant lately, but I’m not sure I would say he is 100% “back” yet. His K/9 is 7.40—7.65 in this six-game stretch—way down from the 10.71 in 2006. His BB/9 has risen about a full batter per. Instead of 2005-06, where he was clearly a groundball pitcher instead of a flyball pitcher, his current GB/FB is 43%/41%, resulting in a 1.05 GB/FB. On top of that, his HR/FB is a very low 5.3%, meaning he has seen a vast increase in flyballs but is keeping them in the yard at a lucky or likely unsustainable pace.

Though he is still likely not himself following the surgery, he is only throwing 90-91 mph, instead of 94-95 mph on his fastball, while his slider has been around 83 mph instead of 87-88 mph. He may be effective right now, and his numbers may look like the Liriano we fell in love with two years ago, but he seems to be quite a bit away from reclaiming the throne as “the next Johan.” It definitely could happen as his body gets more comfortable, but right now, he is a different version of Liriano, inferior to what we glimpsed in 2005-06, but still effective.

One of the issues of analysis Dave and I have discussed here numerous times is that defensive value must also be taken into account when evaluating a player. Without understanding what a player does for his team in the field, it is impossible to accurately evaluate him. Defense might not be as sexy as offense in the traditional evaluative sense, but it is very important. Which brings us to Yunel Escobar, the 25-yr old shortstop of the Atlanta Braves, who looked so good offensively in his rookie campaign last season, that Edgar Renteria suddenly became expendable.

In 94 games during that 2007 season, Escobar splashed onto the scene with a .326/.385/.451 slash line, and a 1.45 WPA/LI. He didn’t strike out or walk a ton, but posted a .367 BABIP that aided his line. Not to say he couldn’t continue to post higher BABIPs but we really knew nothing about his capabilities. In the field, the +- system had him at 0, meaning he was essentially the average fielding shortstop last year. Granted, he did not have a full season’s worth of chances, but last year’s numbers suggested he was a very solid hitter who would not necessarily hurt the team defensively, but would merely get the job done.

This year, things have seemingly reversed. In 128 games, he appears to be in a sophomore slump of sorts, hitting .286/.363/.395. His walk rate has risen from 7.8% to 10.2%, and he is striking out less as well, but the BABIP has dipped significantly to .312. His percentage of line drives has decreased, with an increase in the already very high groundball rate and the flyball rate. Primarily a groundball hitter, his 2.44 GB/FB last year has become a 2.37 rate this year. All of this has resulted in a -0.04 WPA/LI, which is extremely close to 0.00, making it safe to say he has been about an average hitter this year.

His defense, however, has been anything but average, as the +- system pegs him at +25, making him statistically the best fielding shortstop in baseball this year, nine plays ahead of second-place JJ Hardy. Last year, Escobar was a well-above average hitter and the average fielder. This year, he is the average hitter and a well-above average fielder. The problem is that next to nobody pays attention to the defensive side of evaluation, so he just appears to be in a sophomore slump or a decline. If he can sustain the solid defense, or at least some semblance of it, even if just half of the +25, and contribute at the pace he did offensively last year, the Braves will have one heck of a shortstop moving forward. Next year will be important for him as we’ll understand more about his true talent level both offensively and defensively.

This morning I wrote about the numerous players from the North roster in the 2003 Eastern League All Star Game who have not only gone on to play in the major leagues, but as everyday regulars. Marc then discussed some of the players from the same roster who failed to live up to their prospect hype, really never making the major leagues. When looking at the South roster, listed below, you will notice that there are very few that actually made it to the major leagues, with only one standout player… hint… he might not be better than Curtis Granderson.

1. Max St. Pierre, C
2. Scott Ackerman, C
3. Jose Castillo, IF
4. Ivanon Coffie, IF
5. Mike Fontenot, IF
6. Luis Gonzalez, IF
7. Josh McKinley, IF
8. Chan Perry, IF
9. Juan Richardson
10. Shawn Garrett, OF
11. Noah Hall, OF
12. Jeff Inglin, OF
13. Grady Sizemore, OF
14. Jeremy Ware, OF
15. Taylor Buchholz, P
16. Sean Burnett, P
17. Fernando Cabrera, P
18. Kyle Denney, P
19. Brian Forystek, P
20. Mike Johnston, P
21. Josh Karp, P
22. Seung Lee, P
23. Homero Rivera, P
24. Brian Schmack, P

Of these players, most baseball fans will have heard of Castillo, Sizemore, Fontenot, Buchholz, Burnett, and that’s it. Fernando Cabrera has also seen his fair share of playing time, pitching out of the Cleveland bullpen for the last several years, but it is definitely clear that this group produced not just less major leaguers, but less everyday or solid players. Sizemore is an all-star, will be an all-star, and is one of the top commodities in the game of baseball. Outside of him, on this list, the players are not too impressive.

Castillo spent 2004-2007 with the Pirates, playing third base, before splitting time between Houston and San Francisco this year. His best WPA/LI came in 2005, at -0.97. With such poor offensive numbers, he would need to have a great glove to stay around, right? Well, according to the +- system, Castillo was a -15 in 2006 at 2B, just about 0 in 2007, all told, and a -6 this year. How he still has a job is a question I just cannot answer.

Sean Burnett debuted in 2004, making 13 starts for the same Pirates. His FIP was 5.06 with a K/BB of 1.07. He spent the next few years in the minors before returning to the Pirates this year, pitching out of the bullpen. His K/9 has gone from 3.77 in 2004 to 6.80 today… however, his BB/9 has risen from 3.52 to 5.69, ultimately producing an abysmal 1.19 K/BB.

Fontenot seems to be solid for the Cubs, OPS’ing .909 in 108 games right now, so we can leave him alone. Taylor Buchholz, however, cannot be left alone. Formerly a prized prospect in the Phillies system, he was traded to the Astros as part of the Billy Wagner deal, and after a poor 2006 season in Houston, was sent to the Rockies, where he has thrived? Buchholz may have the reputation of a prospect gone wrong, but his numbers tell a different story. Last year, in 41 appearances, he posted an ERA of 4.23, a K/BB of 3.05, and an FIP of 3.75. This year, in 63 appearances, a 2.17 ERA, 3.11 K/BB, and an FIP of 3.30.

The amount of players from the South that have succeeded in the major leagues may be lesser than that of the North, but a perennial all-star in Sizemore, and a solid reliever in Buchholz are doing quite well.

Through high school and the early parts of college, I worked as a graphics coordinator in the television truck on sporting events for the station CN8. My job involved compiling the statistics and coming up with interesting tidbits on players so that the graphics operator could make the lower-thirds you see on-screen when hitters come to the plate. In going through some of my old papers yesterday, I stumbled across the rosters we were given at the 2003 Eastern League (AA) All-Star game. As I began down the list I found numerous players who are in the big leagues today, and regulars at that. Tonight we will examine the South roster, but for now, here are the players from the North roster that have made the majors.

1. Guillermo Quiroz, BAL, -0.97 WPA/LI in 50 games for the Orioles
2. Kelly Shoppach, CLE, 0.40 WPA/LI, leads AL catchers with 17 HR
3. Jason Bartlett, TB, -1.45 WPA/LI for the Rays, an everyday regular
4. Terry Tiffee, LAD, 1-4 in 5 PA this year, 54 G for MIN in 2005
5. Kevin Youkilis, BOS, 2.41 WPA/LI, All-Star
6. Gabe Gross, TB, 0.29 WPA/LI, acquired from Brewers earlier this year
7. Alex Rios, TOR, 0.66 WPA/LI, OPS from .814-.865 last three years
8. Kevin Correia, SF, been in majors since 2003, -0.95 WPA/LI this year
9. Jorge de la Rosa, COL, -0.94 WPA/LI, 4.05 FIP
10. Neal Musser, KC, made 17 appearances at a 6.04 FIP last year, just 1 scoreless inning in 2008
11. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY, career 3.90 FIP, 9.05 WPA/LI in 3+ big league seasons

Fifty percent of the players on this North roster are currently in the major leagues, with Youkilis and Wang headlining the group. There are a few others that had cups of coffee, such as Josh Rabe, and Mike Cervanek, but I will leave it to Marc to take a look at those who have failed to capitalize on their past minor league success. I tried my hardest to remember Youkilis and Wang back in 2003, but really could not draw out any real memories. It is safe to say, though, that I did not peg one as a key driving force on a world series team, or the other as a potential Yankees ace. Tonight we’ll take a look at the South roster, where fewer players have made the big leagues, but at least one all-star stands out.

During last night’s Phillies/Marlins game, I happened to catch a glimpse of a pitch released by Marlins reliever Joe Nelson, that featured such an odd grip that I had to rewind the DVR several times. I called my brother in the room to confirm I wasn’t going crazy, because Nelson’s grip on this changeup or splitter, looked like Dr. Spock’s hand signal in which the index and middle fingers have noticeable divide between the ring finger and pinky. He laughed, and said he heard the story while listening to Vin Scully a few months back, and that it was how Nelson threw his changeup.

While most people hold their changeup with three fingers or a circle-grip, Nelson holds it like a Vulcan from Star Trek. Apparently, when he warms up in the bullpen, his first action involves stretching the divide between his fingers with a golf ball. While Nelson served up a three-run longball to Jayson Werth in last night’s affair, he has been pretty nasty out of the pen for the Fish this year.

After four surgeries in ten years, Nelson is in the midst of just his second full season in major league baseball. He last pitched more than, well, three games back in 2006, when he made 43 appearances for the Royals. While his numbers then were not too impressive, he has definitely gotten the job done this year. In 49 games for a very surprising and pesky Marlins team, Nelson has allowed just 33 hits in 45 innings, walking 20 and striking out 51 hitters. His ability to fan hitters has led to a 10.20 K/9, which somewhat counteracts his 4.0 BB/9 by resulting in a 2.55 K/BB.

He allows baserunners to the meager tune of a 1.18 WHIP, and, once there, 85% have been stranded. This has helped him produce a tremendous 1.80 ERA. His controllable skills have been solid—a 3.46 FIP—but nowhere near as good as that ERA would suggest. Essentially a two-pitch righty, with a 90 mph fastball 65% of the time and the vulcan taking up most of the remaining deliveries, Nelson has been a great story this year that next to nobody, inside or outside of Florida, has noticed. This might just be a career year, never again to be replicated, but after fighting his way through surgery after surgery, all to make it to the big leagues, Joe Nelson has definitely delivered.

Last week, Dave previewed the important Dodgers-Diamondbacks series by discussing the three great pitching matchups on tap. Dan Haren vs. Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb vs. Chad Billingsley, and Randy Johnson vs. Clayton Kershaw. Well, the Big Unit was scratched from yesterday’s start, paving the way for rookie Max Scherzer to step in. Scherzer, the 24-yr old flamethrowing prospect, had success earlier in the season, however, the return of Doug Davis relegated him to the bullpen, before he was eventually sent back to AAA when the Snakes needed a more durable reliever.

Johnson used to be a flamethrower, as well, arguably staking claim as the best left-handed power pitcher of all time, but it seems the torch of heat may be passing to Scherzer. Now, I’m not saying Max is a hall of famer or anything along those lines, but he definitely deserves a spot in this Diamondbacks rotation. Personal affinities aside—Max and I speak routinely through e-mail as he is very into sabermetrics—his mere 13 appearances this year, 4 of which were starts, have produced a WPA/LI of 0.44. Mark Buehrle’s is 0.50, as is John Lannan’s. Joe Blanton, the supposed answer to the Phillies rotation troubles, has been worth just 0.37 wins above an average pitcher.

In 39 innings this season, he has surrendered just 32 hits, only two of which are home runs. His controllable skills only get better, as his 45 strikeouts and 15 walks translate to a 10.38 K/9 and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. Of balls put in play, an exorbitant 31.2% have been line drives, which means his .316 BABIP is much lower perhaps than what should be expected, but this will not persist and can be expected to even out at some point.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he throws his 94.4 mph fastball 72.3% of the time, with 7.01 horizontal inches of movement and 8.76 vertical inches. His slider is thrown 15% of the time, with the changeup accounting for most of the leftover. His changeup looks particularly effective, too, as it comes in almost a full 10 mph slower, at 84.8 mph. Additionally, he has essentially sustained the horizontal movement from his fastball, but lessened the vertical movement, meaning it will not “rise” as much as his heater. Whether in the rotation or temporarily working out of the bullpen, Scherzer needs to be in the big leagues. If he has the capability to miss bats like he does at the major league level, being in AAA serves no purpose.

To read my interview with Max, in which he explains his relationship with sabermetrics and analysis, and how it pertains to him as a pitcher, click here.

When the Mets traded for Johan Santana and promptly signed him to a six year contract extension, I was one of few Phillies fans actually excited that their rivals had just acquired arguably the best pitcher in the game. My sentiment was that, come September, I could not wait for a Santana vs. Cole Hamels matchup with the division potentially on the line; two of the league’s best lefties, with the best two changeups in baseball, squaring off with the collective fanbase of each team hanging onto every pitch. You can imagine that when Sunday’s game was moved to 8 pm EST, to be the ESPN national Sunday Night Game, everything I looked forward to before the season had gone to that next level.

What occurred, however, was a pretty one-sided beating in which the score did not tell the whole story. The Mets may have won 6-3, but the deficit seemed much larger than that, as the Phillies failed to do anything against Johan Santana for virtually the entire game. Hamels pitched poorly, giving Carlos Delgado’s much-publicized book some great notes to add, and the Phillies failed to put the finishing touches on a sweep that would have put them in a tie for first place.

With 19 games to play, the Mets are in the driver’s seat with a two game lead. Last year, with 17 games remaining, the Mets led by 7 games and managed to lose the division. One of the primary reasons for that collapse was a sweep at the hands of the Phillies, which directly loosened their divisional grip by three games. Unlike then, the Phillies and Mets are now finished playing each other for the season, which means the division will be decided by how they fare against their remaining opponents.

The Phillies start a three game set with the Marlins tonight, before playing the Brewers for four. Following that seven game homestand, they go to Atlanta and then Florida for three games each, before returning home to finish the year out against the Braves and Nationals. All told, they have 3 against the Nationals, 4 against the Brewers, 6 against the Marlins, and 6 against the Braves. The Mets, on the other hand, have 3 against the Marlins, 4 against the Cubs, 6 against the Nationals, and 6 against the Braves. It seems that the division will be decided by which team fares the best against potential NL East spoilers and the top-tier NL Central teams. Or, the Marlins could win all six against the Phillies and all three against the Mets and win the division.

This September might not have the exact makings of 2007, but it still has the potential to be a very fun and intense stretch of 19 games. Throw in the close proximity between the DBacks-Dodgers and Twins-White Sox and there are three potential divisions that could be decided over the last few games.