Growing up as a young Phillies fan, prior to my introduction to sabermetrics or advanced analysis, there were a few things I knew, essentially as facts: the Braves would win the division every year, Scott Rolen was an absolutely incredible fielder, and when the Expos had Javier Vazquez on the mound they were going to be tough to beat. I didn’t immerse myself in the numbers but perhaps the scout in me just knew that his ridiculous movement, repertoire and savvy out there on the mound was bound to baffle hitters.

As I became more sabermetrically inclined it hit me as a shock that his numbers were so, well, what they were. They weren’t bad. They weren’t below average. They weren’t average either. His numbers were above average but nowhere near what they should have been based on the way he looked on the mound and on the potential he possessed. Vazquez, as I would grow to understand, is the classic example of a pitcher whose stuff, savvy, and potential are never fully realized, but who will never experience a drought of suitors based on the belief that he can still figure things out.

Here are his ERA and FIP marks since 2000:

2000: 4.05 ERA/3.67 FIP
2001: 3.42 ERA/3.21 FIP
2002: 3.91 ERA/3.68 FIP
2003: 3.24 ERA/3.31 FIP
2004: 4.91 ERA/4.78 FIP
2005: 4.42 ERA/4.06 FIP
2006: 4.84 ERA/3.86 FIP
2007: 3.74 ERA/3.80 FIP
2008: 4.74 ERA/4.02 FIP

Notice anything? Perhaps that his FIP is just about always better than his ERA? Based on his controllable skills, Vazquez is a very, very good pitcher, but for whatever reason this does not always come to fruition in his ERA. Granted, ERA is not the best metric to gauge pitcher performance, but when a guy consistently posts lower FIPs you have to wonder what exactly is going on.

Each year he posts very good K/BB ratios and solid walk and strikeout per nine inning rates. Additionally, from 2001-07, his WHIP ranged from 1.08-1.29, so it isn’t as if he has allowed a plethora of baserunners. His strand rate in that span is around 72%, which is league average, meaning he hasn’t been drastically unlucky in that regard. All told, he has great controllable skills, doesn’t allow many baserunners, and strands around the average rate, yet something is preventing him from being an annual Cy Young Award contender.

He throws a two-seam fastball which is more closely associated with a sinker than a hard heater. Because of this we wouldn’t be wrong to expect good groundball numbers from Javy. Since 2005, however, his GB/FB has been under 1.0, which tells us that he has been allowing more flyballs than grounders. His home runs allowed could be a big factor in preventing him from being more successful: From 2001-2007, of all starters with at least 180 starts in that seven year span, Vazquez has the 6th highest HR/9.

Perhaps something in his location or use of pitches is catalyzing these home runs, or perhaps not. All I know is that he has been a very frustrating pitcher because he just looks like he should be so much better… and he isn’t. Not that he’s bad, by any means, but he should be a perennial all-star. Any thoughts? Or can anyone think of an equally frustrating pitcher?

Upon looking back at the best pitchers of the 1990s, whose careers continued into the Y2K era, a general concensus seems to exist involving which ones sit atop the totem pole. The order of these pitchers may differ from list to list but, based on several articles written by some smart and reliable writers, that list tends to include: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Kevin Brown, and Mike Mussina.

Some feel all nine of these pitchers are Hall of Fame-worthy. Others draw the line after Smoltz. Some more say all but Brown are deserving. Regardless, it does seem that these nine pitchers had the most impact on the game from a starting pitching standpoint, especially in the statistical department. With that in mind, I went to each of their profile pages and isolated, using WPA/LI, their best seasons. Below they are ranked by these context-neutral wins:

Pedro Martinez (00): 8.09 WPA/LI, 1.74 ERA/2.16 FIP, 0.74 WHIP, 32 BB/284 K
Greg Maddux (95): 6.86 WPA/LI, 1.63 ERA/2.25 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 23 BB/181 K
Roger Clemens (97): 6.23 WPA/LI, 2.05 ERA/2.25 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 68 BB/292 K
Randy Johnson (95): 6.15 WPA/LI, 2.48 ERA/2.08 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 65 BB/294 K
Curt Schilling (02): 6.07 WPA/LI, 3.23 ERA/2.40 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 33 BB/316 K
John Smoltz (96): 5.23 WPA/LI, 2.94 ERA/2.64 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 55 BB/276 K
Kevin Brown (98): 5.08 WPA/LI, 2.38 ERA/2.23 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 49 BB/257 K
Mike Mussina (01): 4.28 WPA/LI, 3.15 ERA/2.91 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 42 BB/214 K
Tom Glavine (91): 4.13 WPA/LI, 2.55 ERA/3.05 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 69 BB/192 K

First, some commonalities. Nobody here had a WHIP 1.10+ in their best season; the highest ERA, 3.23, belongs to Schilling, who actually had the biggest E-F discrepancy at -0.83. Nobody had an FIP higher than 3 except Glavine, who also had the highest WHIP, most walks, and second lowest amount of strikeouts. Okay, so it seems that Glavine had the worst best-year of this group and Pedro’s 2000 (as well as his 1999 campaign) just might be the best pitched season in the history of the sport, but I’m curious to know your thoughts on the rankings of these best seasons and how you would rank their careers overall.

Would you stick with the WPA/LI in ranking their top seasons? Does this order represent the order for their overall careers?

While I have a feeling the top four will remain the same it should be very interesting to see some takes on how the bottom five are ranked with some reasoning behind it. With enough of a vote we’ll be able to see if any real concensus exists with regards to their order of effectiveness.

We’ve discussed here as well as at Statistically Speaking with regards to Pedro Martinez’s pitching in 1999-2000 as perhaps the best we have ever seen, but another peak for a different pitcher in a similar span should not be overlooked. Though the numbers compiled in this peak may not be as impressive in the grand scheme of things they point to a domination of hitters. I’m speaking of Randy Johnson and his performance from 1999-2002.

For starters, here are some of his peripheral numbers in each of these seasons:

1999: 35 GS, 271.2 IP, 207 H, 75 ER, 70 BB, 364 K, 1.02 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, 2.75 FIP
2000: 35 GS, 248.2 IP, 202 H, 73 ER, 76 BB, 347 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.64 ERA, 2.53 FIP
2001: 34 GS, 249.2 IP, 181 H, 69 ER, 71 BB, 372 K, 1.01 WHIP, 2.49 ERA, 2.12 FIP
2002: 35 GS, 260.0 IP, 197 H, 67 ER, 71 BB, 334 K, 1.03 WHIP, 2.32 ERA, 2.66 FIP

Let those babies sink in. Those are four absolutely ridiculous seasons. His 2000 campaign “looks” worse than the other three seasons yet his FIP of 2.53 comes in as the second lowest. In 1999 he led the NL in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts. In fact, his 364 K outranked everyone by a very wide margin; second place was Kevin Brown and his measly-in-comparison 221 punchouts. He also finished second in WHIP by two-hundredths of a point.

The following season he again ranked in the top three in just about every category, finishing first in CG and K (347 to Chan Ho Park’s 217); he also finished 2nd in ERA and 3rd in IP and WHIP. In 2001, he led the league in ERA, Strikeouts, and WHIP while finishing 2nd in IP to teammate Curt Schilling. And in 2002, he led in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts while finishing 3rd in WHIP. Those are just the peripheral numbers.

In terms of Win Probability, here are his WPA/LI and REW numbers, as well as their ranks in each of these seasons:

1999: 5.04 WPA/LI (1st), 5.93 REW (1st)
2000: 4.41 WPA/LI (2nd), 4.82 REW (1st)
2001: 5.84 WPA/LI (1st), 6.25 REW (1st)
2002: 4.43 WPA/LI (2nd), 5.91 REW (1st)

We all know RJ as a strikeout machine, and his K/9 counts in these four seasons did not disappoint. 12.06 in ’99, 12.56 in ’00, 13.41 in ’01, and 11.56 in ’02. He of course led the league in each of these seasons. Equally impressive are his K/BB ratios; it isn’t as if he struck out a ton of batters but walked many as well. No, Johnson’s lowest K/BB in this span was 4.57 in 2000. In 1999 he clocked in at 5.20; a 5.24 in 2001, and a 4.70 in 2002. These ratios placed him either second or third in each season.

All told, Johnson led the league or finished no lower than third in all of these categories for four straight seasons. He is without a doubt a Hall of Fame pitcher and the kind of guy whose starts used to be considered “events.” While it usually takes a few years after a player retires to detach ourselves from the most recent performance—for instance, it’s tough to really remember every facet of Johnson’s peak when we see his most recent seasons on the Yankees and again DBacks—let’s not forget that the man who induced a Lou Collins flyout in the film Little Big League had arguably the second best peak in baseball history.

Every now and again when I get a few free moments to myself it has become customary to check sites like Baseball Think Factory and see what is going on across the blogosphere. In the last month or two it has dawned on me that I end up reading about one article every other day discussing Mike Mussina and his chances of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Writers present stats, discuss why they are good enough, play devil’s advocate to show why he might not get in, and then make some comparison to a pitcher either in/not in to prove their point.

He is currently in the midst of a very good season but, unless I’m mistaken, he mentioned in John Feinstein’s book (along with Tom Glavine) that this would be his final season. Perhaps his great pitching has changed his mind but I had thought this year would be his last.

Regardless, when I look at the Hall of Fame, one question surfaces: Can the story of baseball during the era in which this guy played be truly, accurately told, if we remove him? If the answer is yes, he doesn’t really belong in Cooperstown. That qualifying question discusses the impact a player had on the game on a very simple level; if someone was that important to the game then you would need to include him in some type of historical document or pamphlet when explaining the era to future generations. To me, that is what the Hall of Fame is and should be.

For Mussina, I’m not so sure the answer to that question is positive. And, even if it is, doesn’t the hesitance pointed in his direction say more than the numerous articles written about him?

Anyways, supposing he does find himself enshrined, on whom do you think he made the most impact? Orioles or Yankees? Here are his overall numbers and average seasons with each team. Be sure to note that his numbers with the Yankees are including his overall 2008 numbers using the in-season Marcel projection system.

Orioles: 10 yrs, 288 GS, 2009.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 131 ERA+, 3.29 K/BB, .249/.293/.394
Yankees: 8 yrs, 247 GS, 1547.0 IP, 3.89 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.99 K/BB, .261/.301/.406

Orioles: 29 GS, 6.98 IP/GS, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 47 BB, 154 K
Yankees: 31 GS, 6.26 IP/GS, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 40 BB, 158 K

The numbers on the Orioles tend to look a little bit better but on whom did he have the bigger impact? As in, if he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, would it make more sense to see him wearing an Orioles or Yankees cap? When answering, try to think along the lines of the future and the question posed towards the beginning. For us, it’s very hard to break free from the current, and since we have seen him in pinstripes this entire decade they might be an easy choice… but if someone, fifty years from now, who had little knowledge of this era, were to learn about it and Mike Mussina came up, which team would it make more sense for him to represent?

In looking at Brian McCann yesterday I found some interesting parallels between his numbers and those of Pirates backstop Ryan Doumit. Considering the definite lack of national attention thrust upon the Pirates it is pretty safe to say most of non-fantasy baseball playing fans have next to no idea who he is or what he has done this year. With that in mind, here are some Doumit facts:

• In 75 games he is hitting .336/.377/.549
• That .926 OPS ranks 11th best in the NL amongst those with 300+ PAs
• His SLG ranks 12th best with those same parameters
• He has an AB/HR rate of 23.8, which is in the same vicinity as David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto
• His 2.18 REW is ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and Chase Utley
• His 1.70 WPA/LI ranks ahead of Dan Uggla, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Derrek Lee
• His 13.3% strikeout rate falls in the lowest twenty-five percent
• His BABIP is a very high .356
• That BABIP isn’t too crazy considering his 23.2% LD rate (.232+.120 = .352!)
• His in-season Marcel estimates a .259/.336/.432 clip with six home runs to finish the year
• That would end his season at .307/.361/.505, good for 18 HR and an .866 OPS

In other words, Doumit has put together a very solid line of stats that are due for a regression but will still look good at season’s end. Though most of the general public has no idea who he is, he has actually been better to date in numerous areas than several all-stars and MVP candidates.

Suppose I titled this post something else and you had no idea in what direction it was headed: Would you have any idea that Brian McCann of the Braves, one of Dave’s favorite players, is the top offensive catcher in baseball this year? I’m sure some of you might have pegged him to be one of the best, but not the king of the castle, so to speak. No, Russell Martin would have gotten some votes, Joe Mauer, too; heck, maybe some would even forget Victor Martinez is injured and homerless in 54 games and give him some major loving. Regardless, the fact remains that McCann is having a very good offensive season, better than the large majority of non-catchers, let alone catchers themselves.

When discussing catchers, we primarily stick to offense because, well, there is no real way to quantify defensively what a catcher does behind the plate. Offense can definitely be quantified, however, and nowadays a good hitting catcher is generally a league average hitter or slightly better. McCann is way above the league average this year.

In 101 games he has a .306/.386/.558 slash line, good for a .945 OPS. The OBP ranks 10th in the NL (ironically tied with Russell Martin); the SLG comes in 9th; and the OPS ranks 8th. McCann’s SLG and OPS ranks first amongst all catchers, NL or AL; Mauer tops him in OBP, but he comes in second place. On top of that, his 2.10 WPA/LI ranks first in the NL amongst catchers (Joe Mauer has a slight overall lead), and his 2.49 REW leads all catchers regardless of league. It seems Mauer would be deserving of some recognition this year but he just does not bring the dimension of power to the plate that McCann offers.

Ryan Doumit has had a tremendous season as well, but his is built on a .359 BABIP whereas Brian’s is a very solid and much more regression-proof .306. He has struck out just 46 times this year, putting him in the top twenty for lowest strikeout percentage. He doesn’t draw a plethora of free passes, but enough so that his BB/K is a tick under 1.0.

McCann might not be a household name outside of NL East cities, but he should be. These numbers, and his numbers in the seasons prior definitely back up my sentiments.

After receiving a late May call to the bigs last year, Brewers 3B Ryan Braun went on an absolute tear, taking home Rookie of the Year hardware in the process. 112 games into his second season it does not appear that he has fallen victim to the ever heralded “sophomore slump.” In fact, take a look at his two seasons, side by side (or on top of one another) as he has had virtually the same amount of opportunities:

2007: 113 GP, 146-451, 26 2B, 6 3B, 34 HR, 29 BB, 112 K, .324/.370/.634
2008: 112 GP, 138-460, 31 2B, 6 3B, 30 HR, 26 BB, 99 K, .300/.339/.589

With roughly two months remaining he should easily surpass his counting stats from the tremendous rookie campaign. Interestingly enough, due to the season-long success of the Cubs, the early struggles of the Brewers, and outside factors such as acquiring CC Sabathia, there are plenty of knowledgable baseball fans out there unaware that Braun is having this good of a season. His 30 home runs ranks third in baseball behind just Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn, and his WPA/LI of 2.74 checks in ninth in the senior circuit.

He didn’t walk much last year and is doing so even less this year—seventh lowest BB-rate at 5.3%—but at least his frequency of strikeouts has decreased a bit. Due to his lack of free passes, his OBP is not very high relative to his batting average; doubly so it means his slugging percentage would need to be very high to result in the ninth best OPS in the national league. Sure enough, his slugging percentage ranks sixth best and his isolated power of .289 ranks fifth best.

Using the in-season Marcel, he is projected to finish the season hitting .310/.368/.572, with 11 doubles and 12 home runs. The reliability or accuracy of his projection is not going to be as high as others, however, given that this is his second year. Regardless, this would put him at .303/.358/.584 in his sophomore season. Stack up his first two years:

2007: 113 GP, .324/.370/.634, 1.004 OPS, 26 2B, 34 HR
2008: 156 GP, .303/.348/.584, .932 OPS, 42 2B, 42 HR

Not too shabby for his first two years in the major leagues. He doesn’t walk much and is not a tremendous fielder, but the Hebrew Hammer can flat out rake.

The Phillies fell to the Marlins last night, 8-2, dropping their lead in the NL East to just one and a half games. I missed the game due to attending a Hootie and the Blowfish concert, but upon learning the score, developed a real gut feeling that Shane Victorino was somehow involved in those two runs. You see, Victorino, otherwise known as “The Flyin’ Hawaiian,” has been on an absolute tear over the last month and yet very few have realized. Sure enough, the box score revealed that the Phillies two runs came as a result of a two-run homer off the bat of Victorino. Granted, replays showed it was likely a foul ball, but that isn’t changing the stat sheets or the fact that he has been one of baseball’s best over the last month.

Thanks to the ‘last 30 days’ feature here we can definitively check how his performance has been and gauge it relative to the rest of the league. Here are his numbers:

Last 30 Days: .347/.386/.705, 1.091 OPS, 6 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 1.30 WPA/LI

His WPA/LI ranks behind just Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun, meaning that Victorino has arguably been the most productive players in the NL over the last thirty days, let alone the most productive centerfielder. Additionally, his 1.091 OPS and 8 HR top all centerfielders. To add even more fuel to the fire, all of this has been built upon a .316 BABIP; while the BABIPs of other hot performers in this span are ridiculously high and unsustainable, Shane’s has been relatively normal.

The recent stretch has brought his overall seasonal line to read: .288/.351/.451, 20 2B, 11 HR, 1.20 WPA/LI, 1.00 REW. His WPA/LI ranks fourth amongst NL centerfielders behind Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, and Carlos Beltran; his REW comes behind just McLouth and Beltran.

As The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball as well as a few other studies have shown, hot and cold streaks have very little predictive ability, so this isn’t to say Victorino will outslug Ryan Howard from here on out. Still, he has been very productive and I would be willing to wager that the vast majority of baseball knows next to nothing about him.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Shane would go .278/.343/.421 with 10 2B and 5 HR. This would bring his overall line to .284/.346/.441, with 30 2B and 16 HR. Compare then his projected 2008 finish to his 2006 and 2007 seasons:

2006: .287/.346/.414, .760 OPS, 19 2B, 6 HR
2007: .281/.347/.423, .770 OPS, 23 2B, 12 HR
2008: .284/.346/.441, .787 OPS, 30 2B, 16 HR

His BA and OBP would stay virtually the same while the value of those hits—more doubles and home runs—would increase. He may not get much better considering his age of 27 years old, but teams could do a lot worse than having a solid centerfielder with a very good arm who would top their speed charts and add a dimension of power. He may not get the publicity of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, or Ryan Howard, but his contributions have definitely been key in getting the Phillies out of their recent funk.

One of the most sought after players leading up to, and at, the trading deadline was Kansas City Royals reliever Ron Mahay. I’m not sure if he was ever really going anywhere or if the media latched onto this effective lefty as a potential savior for some teams, brewing the trade winds themselves. Regardless, he stayed put and is still a late inning lefty for the Royals. In looking at his numbers, I was quite surprised (and embarrassed) to find out that he is actually in the midst of his twelfth big league season; I honestly had not heard of him prior to 2001.

From 1997-2002 his numbers jumped all over the place. Here are his FIPs and LOB% in that span:

1997: 4.23, 89.2%
1998: 5.02, 67.2%
1999: 3.38, 85.4%
2000: 6.54, 69.1%
2001: 5.41, 98.1%
2002: 8.01, 55.6%

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mahay is what it appeared to be throughout these six years, but he apparently still performed well enough to earn more opportunities. That could largely be due to the fact that his career ERA is close to a full run below his FIP; the controllable skills might not be there but that does not automatically disqualify him from effectiveness. From 2003 to the midpoint of 2007 he played for the Rangers before being traded to Atlanta in the Mark Teixieira deal. In the off-season he signed with the Royals and has been one of the most effective relievers this year, and arguably the best non-closer.

In looking at the Relievers page on the leaderboards here, Mahay has the 5th highest WPA of any reliever in baseball. The top portion of that board is generally reserved to closers as they usually perform in the most pressure-filled situations; Mahay’s position means he has found himself in some tight jams and performed admirably in escaping from them.

Now, WPA is not an end-all barometer, but it does have more merit when dealing with relievers. Still, I like to think of it the way Dave Studeman thinks of it, as a “story stat,” one that mirrors our emotions in the game and tells the story of exactly what happened. Based on our emotions when watching, Mahay’s performance has been worth about three wins this year. Teammate Joakim Soria ranks second with a 3.57 WPA, so they have quite possibly been the best relief tandem in baseball this year, yet both are likely still unknown in numerous areas across the country.

When we look at WPA/LI, however, or context-neutral wins, Mahay falls to thirteenth, worth about one win. Soria ranks first in the whole league, at just about two wins, and another of their teammates, Ramon Ramirez, actually ranks ninth, ahead of Mahay. WPA/LI counts each plate appearance as its own entity and attempts to rid the bias in WPA that credits certain situations as being worth many more plate appearances. This tells us that Mahay has been very adept in late-inning situations but his overall performance has not been as incredible as we may think.

He is still performing very well and would most likely be an upgrade on any of the teams that received him, but he is not a savior. And especially considering his trade would have taken place at the deadline, when as Dave showed, the upgrades would not be as substantial with just fifty games remaining, you have to wonder how much of an upgrade he even would have been. As I said, he is a very good reliever relative to the last two years, but a team’s success should not hinge upon acquiring Ron Mahay.

Though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sport a pythagorean record nine games worse than their actual mark, they have outdone this run-based estimator each year since 2004. Credit Mike Scioscia as a tremendous manager, or the makeup of the team, but the fact remains they currently own the best record in baseball. On top of that they hold an 11.5 game lead over the second place Rangers; quite honestly, barring some drastic, unforeseen event, this division is all but locked up.

One of the reasons the Halos have been so effective to date is their starting rotation. With that in mind, let’s take a look at its members and see if we can get to know these pitchers a little better.

John Lackey
9-2, 3.10 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 80.1% LOB, 3.40 K/BB
HR/FB between 5.7% and 9.0% from 2004-07; currently 12.4%

Ervin Santana
12-5, 3.38 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, .294 BABIP, 74.5% LOB, 3.67 K/BB
2007: 150.0 IP, 174 H, 96 ER, 26 HR, 58 BB, 126 K
2008: 149.1 IP, 130 H, 59 ER, 14 HR, 39 BB, 143 K

Joe Saunders
14-5, 3.09 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .244 BABIP, 77.4% LOB, 1.74 K/BB
6th lowest K/9 at 4.38, 4th lowest BABIP, 1st lowest LD rate at 13.5%

Jered Weaver
9-9, 4.37 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 2.59 K/BB
Most numbers better than 2007 but less flyballs with an increase in HR/FB

Jon Garland
10-6, 4.30 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, .299 BABIP, 72.4% LOB, 1.40 K/BB
5th lowest K/9 at 4.11, FIP 4.24-4.36 from 2005-07
47.9% GB (from 39.4% in 07), 28.4% FB (from 37.7% in 07), but 11.9% HR/FB (from 7.1% in 07)

Of these five pitchers, based on their BABIPs and strand rates, it appears that Santana and Garland are the most “for real.” Weaver’s strand rate is right around league average but his BABIP has been well below average. Lackey’s strand rate is likely unsustainable, regardless of how talented he may be, and given his BABIPs in the .300+ range over the last few years, a .266 mark is quite low.

Saunders and Santana seem to be on opposite ends of the luck/skills spectrum. Lefty Joe has built his seasonal line upon an unsustainably low BABIP, a high 77.4% strand rate, one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, and one of the lowest rates of line drives in the last twenty years. Could he defy the odds and prove to be regression-proof? Sure, it happens time to time. I just wouldn’t bet on him being as effective from here on out. Santana, on the other hand, has more earthbound numbers and, as surprising as it may be that he is the same guy that looked lucky to have a job last year, he has not benefited from too much luck this year.

When Saunders, Lackey, and Weaver experience their likely regressions it won’t hurt the Angels chances of making the playoffs but it does call into question who may start in that division series against the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees. Lackey is going to be the #1, and based on performance to date, Santana should be #2, but who would you start in that series? Do you trust Saunders enough to sustain these ridiculous rates? Or would you throw him in regardless given the fact that he is a lefty?