Mussina’s Impact
Every now and again when I get a few free moments to myself it has become customary to check sites like Baseball Think Factory and see what is going on across the blogosphere. In the last month or two it has dawned on me that I end up reading about one article every other day discussing Mike Mussina and his chances of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Writers present stats, discuss why they are good enough, play devil’s advocate to show why he might not get in, and then make some comparison to a pitcher either in/not in to prove their point.
He is currently in the midst of a very good season but, unless I’m mistaken, he mentioned in John Feinstein’s book (along with Tom Glavine) that this would be his final season. Perhaps his great pitching has changed his mind but I had thought this year would be his last.
Regardless, when I look at the Hall of Fame, one question surfaces: Can the story of baseball during the era in which this guy played be truly, accurately told, if we remove him? If the answer is yes, he doesn’t really belong in Cooperstown. That qualifying question discusses the impact a player had on the game on a very simple level; if someone was that important to the game then you would need to include him in some type of historical document or pamphlet when explaining the era to future generations. To me, that is what the Hall of Fame is and should be.
For Mussina, I’m not so sure the answer to that question is positive. And, even if it is, doesn’t the hesitance pointed in his direction say more than the numerous articles written about him?
Anyways, supposing he does find himself enshrined, on whom do you think he made the most impact? Orioles or Yankees? Here are his overall numbers and average seasons with each team. Be sure to note that his numbers with the Yankees are including his overall 2008 numbers using the in-season Marcel projection system.
Orioles: 10 yrs, 288 GS, 2009.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 131 ERA+, 3.29 K/BB, .249/.293/.394
Yankees: 8 yrs, 247 GS, 1547.0 IP, 3.89 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.99 K/BB, .261/.301/.406
Orioles: 29 GS, 6.98 IP/GS, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 47 BB, 154 K
Yankees: 31 GS, 6.26 IP/GS, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 40 BB, 158 K
The numbers on the Orioles tend to look a little bit better but on whom did he have the bigger impact? As in, if he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, would it make more sense to see him wearing an Orioles or Yankees cap? When answering, try to think along the lines of the future and the question posed towards the beginning. For us, it’s very hard to break free from the current, and since we have seen him in pinstripes this entire decade they might be an easy choice… but if someone, fifty years from now, who had little knowledge of this era, were to learn about it and Mike Mussina came up, which team would it make more sense for him to represent?
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
Just putting my vote in to bring back full text RSS feeds.
Was that a minor league team he played for?
Sandy Koufax had a 131 ER+ over ~12 seasons in his career.
Mike Mussina had a 131 ERA+ over 10 seasons with the Orioles and then added 8 above average (and a few extremely good) seasons after that.
Just to clarify…. Mussina is not Sandy Koufax. I was just making the historical comparison for the writers.
Well Sandy Koufax realistically only had 6 good seasons; they were just so very good that his other years are largely forgotten. Mussina has been a great pitcher and definitely one of the best in the last twenty years. He just seems to me like someone who will be left behind. I guess it could depend on when he retires, too. If he goes this year and some others do as well, it could be a ballot of Maddux, Glavine, Mussina, Johnson.
Who knows, but that’s not the question here. I’m curious to hear thoughts on who would represent him better if he were to get in.
Eyeballing Mussina’s FIP, it looks like he was basically the same pitcher in New York as he was in Baltimore, maybe better.
Makes sense in context, knowing how bad the Yankee defense used to be.
The Koufax comparison is useful for your criterion, Eric. Your emphasis on the “historical account” of baseball will emphasize peaks over long, consistent careers (as well as postseason play and major market teams).
Studes, that’s exactly why, in my mind, a guy like Mussina is going to be forgotten whereas six years of great pitching from Koufax was enough to immortalize him. Moose was never the best, he was good and he was there. Because he never had that peak to make people gasp I just can’t see him doing well in HOF voting.
He goes in as an Oriole, though the New York media may have something to say about that.
He spent more time there, and was a better pitcher. He had 8 good/great seasons with the O’s and only 2 average seasons. He had 4 good/great seasons with the Yanks and 3 average and one poor. Over his career with the Yanks he has been a bit above average. Approximately boils down to a 133 ERA+ v. a 115. If I were a GM I know which pitcher I want, and that is probably the way to answer that question. If you were a GM, what version of the player do you want and that is the hat they wear.
All that said I think Mussina was a very good pitcher, but I don’t think he is Hall worthy. He was never a serious contender for a Cy Young, if you want to reward longevity be prepared ton induct Moyer. (1999, was actually quite pedestrian)
He should go in as an Orioles if we look at numbers, but as we know it is the hall of “fame” – and as far as Mussina’s fame goes, the bulk of it, understandably, came during his Yankee years. I cannot find the article, but I remember there is a “fame rating” some statistician tried to come up with that is added to the hall of fame numbers total. Here are some completely made up numbers:
If he gets 75 HOF points for being a good Orioles and only 65 HOF points for being a good Yankee, then he’d go in as an Orioles. But say he gets 15 “fame points” for being a good Yankee, then he’d go in as a Yankee at 80 > 75.
I think if the Hall of Fame was based on numbers only – as it should be – , then Orioles. But since fame seems to be part of the equation, it makes sense he’d go in as a Yankee.