Let’s play a little game. Below are seasonal lines for four of the top pitchers in the National League, and I would like you to try and identify the owners while simultaneously deciding which holds the best numbers:

a) 3.04 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 7.60 K/9, 3.33 K/BB, .294 BABIP
b) 2.59 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 9.02 K/9, 3.70 K/BB, .292 BABIP
c) 3.14 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 3.51 K/BB, .303 BABIP
d) 3.28 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 8.77 K/9, 3.69 K/BB, .304 BABIP

All four have earthbound BABIPs so it isn’t to say one has been more or less lucky than another in that area, and each has very solid numbers. While any team should feel safe with any one of these pitchers, I would tend to think that Pitcher B has the best numbers of the group. His WHIP is the lowest, K/9 the highest, K/BB the highest, ERA the lowest, with a higher-but-still-great FIP.

With that in mind, here are the identities:

a) Brandon Webb
b) Jake Peavy
c) Ben Sheets
d) CC Sabathia

Of the four pitching lines above, Jake Peavy arguably has the best numbers, and yet this baseball fan/writer simply has not heard anything about his performance to date. With so many surprise-pitchers like Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Ryan Dempster, et al, hogging the headlines and the Padres spending most of the season as cellar-dwellars, the Jakester has seemingly been lost in the shuffle. His 8-7 W-L record does not help him much either; while many of us understand how W-L records are terrible barometers there are many more fans who treat that stat as gospel.

One aspect of Peavy’s performance line due to regress is his strand rate. To date he has allowed very few baserunners and 84.5% of them have been left on base. The league average is around 72% and an absolutely tremendous season may result in a 77-79% rate; sustaining an 84.5% rate just is not very likely. When this does regress, it means more runners will score, which should lessen the gap between his ERA and FIP; however, his numbers will likely still be very, very good.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Peavy is expected to finish off the season with 56 innings over nine starts, walking 17 and fanning 55 batters. His WHIP over the remainder would be an almost-identical 1.14, while his FIP would drop to 3.07. Should this come to fruition, his season would finish like this:

28 GS, 178 IP, 150 H, 50 BB, 177 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.74 ERA, 3.21 FIP

There are very few pitchers in the league likely to finish with numbers better than that yet nobody seems to be discussing him. Maybe he has the Pujols-syndrome in which everyone expects tremendous numbers and because of that would rather discuss the surprises. That doesn’t seem very fair though. In closing, here are Peavy’s ranks in the NL:

1st, 2.59 ERA
2nd, 3.70 K/BB
2nd, 27.66 BRAA
3rd, 2.75 REW
3rd, 1.12 WHIP
5th, 9.02 K/9
6th, 3.27 FIP
6th, 1.99 WPA/LI

To me, that’s someone who should be getting some recognition, regardless of whether or not his performance level is expected.

Well, the trade deadline has passed which means that teams can no longer exchange players and that players cannot change teams from here on out. Or wait, nevermind, they still can, just not through conventional methods. Players can still switch sides for the next month through the magical waiver wire. Everyone has heard the term “waiver” tossed around with cavalier delivery but its actual meaning and implications are not necessarily known by most fans. If you have ever been confused with regards to its exactitudes, do not worry because you are not alone.

For starters, what is the waiver wire? Essentially, the waiver wire is used to gauge interest in certain players of a team as well as make moves when the trading deadline has passed. If a team puts a player of theirs on waivers it does not mean they are steadfastly interesting in moving him; instead, it could mean they are curious as to what could be obtained for his services or perhaps how many teams show interest.

This leads into a bit of “waiver theory.” Teams will put many of their players on waivers, even if they have no intention whatsoever of even listening to offers or taking notice of piqued interest. This occurs because the team in question wants to disguise the players they are actually offering. As a pure hypothetical, a player placed on waivers with an OPS of, say, .760, might look more enticing when surrounded on the waiver wire by teammates with much higher or much lower marks. This same player might not catalyze much discussion if placed by his lonesome.

A player is placed on waivers at 2 PM on day one and has until 1 pm, two business days later, to be claimed. If nobody made a claim for him, and the team doesn’t want his services anymore, they can either send him to the minors, release him, or even work out a trade. If a player is claimed prior to this deadline, the owning team can either pull their man off of waivers, work out a trade, or do nothing and let the claiming team receive the player. Once a player is pulled off of waivers he cannot be traded for another month. Additionally, you can only be pulled off once; if pulled off and placed back on, the player is fair game.

What happens if there are multiple claims? The team with the worst record in the same league gets precedent. If nobody in the same league makes a claim this same rule reverts to the opposite league; the team with the worst record has first dibs, so to speak. For the first month of the season, the previous year’s W-L records are used to gauge these dibs. After that, current season records come into play. This again leads into some waiver theory or strategy, in that some teams will put in a claim simply to block another team from getting a certain player. If the Red Sox want a relief pitcher on waivers, and make a claim for him, the Yankees, who have a worse record, may also make a claim in the hopes that their rivals cannot improve their team.

Then again, if the team owning the relief pitcher doesn’t pull him off of waivers, the Yankees would then be stuck with him whether they like him or not. I hope this cleared up some confusion relative to the inner workings of the waiver wire because, over the next month, it is safe to say we are not going to be at any type of drought of waiver-talk.

The information in this article was derived from an old Jayson Stark article, an older Steve Phillips article, and Tim Dierkes’ post from 2006. Thanks also to Keith Law for further clarifications.

I took a drive down to D.C. to take in the Nationals-Phillies game last night with my family and, following two great fielding plays, was reminded just how much I like Ryan Zimmerman. Prior to this year I had spent seven years (age 15-21) as a freelance graphics coordinator for CN8 Sports, wherein my job consisted of supplying stats to the guy who generated the on-screen graphics amongst others. One of the perks was all of the minor league games requiring my services. One of these games, involving the AA Harrisburg Senators, always stuck out due to Zimmerman’s involvement.

The game took place in August 2005, only a couple of months after the Nationals drafted Ryan, and, in my best scouting impression, he just had that look about him. I’m not too sure what that means or tells us but he just seemed to have the body, raw skills, and makeup of a future major league star. He performed quite well that game and two weeks later found himself in the major leagues. I’ll never forget thinking how remarkable it was that he had gone from college kid to relatively successful major league player in the span of two and a half or so months.

In 20 September games back in 2005, Zimmerman produced a .397/.419/.569 line, built upon a laughably unsustainable .500 BABIP. The following year, his true rookie year, he finished behind Hanley Ramirez in Rookie of the Year voting but posted extremely impressive numbers. In 157 games of plus-defense at third base, Zimm hit .287/.351/.471, with 20 home runs and 47 doubles. Playing in RFK didn’t help his home run numbers but 47 doubles as a rookie? Come on, now…

His BABIP that season was a more earthbound .329 and given his young age, 21-22 years old, it was not too insane to think that this would merely serve as a stepping stone for much greener performance pastures. Last season, however, he didn’t pick up where he left off. While playing all 162 games he hit .266/.330/.458, with 24 home runs and 43 doubles. His grand total of homers and two-baggers remained the same, as did his walk and strikeout rates, but his lower .298 BABIP resulted in a drop of twenty points in his batting average and on-base percentage.

While those numbers might be good for others, I quite simply expected more from Zimmerman. Perhaps it was merely a sophomore slump, something he would shake off this year. I’m not so sure anymore. Though he has battled injuries this year, he entered last night’s game with a .259/.300/.414 slash line. He has seemingly traded in some line drives for grounders and currently has an even lower .284 BABIP. Plugging him into both of the in-season projection systems offers this:

Marcel: 16 2B, 7 HR, .285/.351/.472 over the remainder
Total: 28 2B, 15 HR, .271/.325/.442, and an OPS of .767

ZiPS: 10 2B, 6 HR, .283/.353/.500 over the remainder
Total: 22 2B, 14 HR, .268/.322/.446, and an OPS of .768

Should he stay true to his talent level, this season should not end too differently from last season; however, in my eyes, that is not necessarily a “good” thing considering that last season signified a drop in performance from his rookie season. Though a .768 OPS in an injury-shortened season and a .788 in his sophomore season aren’t extremely different from his .822 in 2005, he is yet to take that next step towards super-stardom. Granted it may be tough to do while in a Nationals uniform but right now I’m disappointed with his production. From anyone who follows the Nationals—which, by the way the stadium looked last night constitutes a small number of fans—is there anything you have noticed with regards to Zimmerman, either this year or last? Is it injuries having an effect or has he not truly improved at all?

Back on June 24th, Yankees second-baseman Robinson Cano had the Rafael Belliard-esque slash line of .227/.270/.325. He had been a huge disappointment and seemed to be in the midst of a big step in the wrong direction. After all, by the time his third season in the big leagues ended last year, it appeared that Cano might give Chase Utley a run for his money as the premier offensive keystone cornerman in the game. If we know anything about a player’s true talent level, though, it is that a player performing much, much worse than his pre-season projection through the first half is very likely to post much better numbers from that point on.

It should come as no surprise then that, since June 24th, Cano has produced a .359/.377/.573 slash line. He has never been one to walk much, finishing both 2006 and 2007 in the AL’s bottom ten in BB%, while currently ranking fourth lowest this year. His strikeouts, however, are occurring less frequently this year. After finishing out of the top ten lowest strikeout rates in 2006 and 2007 he currently has the fourth lowest rate.

Due to this he is putting balls in play at a higher rate this year and, whether a direct result or not, his BABIP has taken a serious hit. After coming in between .320 and .361 in his first three years, his current mark of .273 pales in comparison. It may not be significantly different from a statistics standpoint but the fact remains it is a big cause of his lower numbers. I initially thought this drop may be due to a lower rate of line drives, but he has actually hit them at a higher frequency this year; his groundball rate has dropped, though. Additionally, his flyballs have increased while his HR/FB has dropped; after ranging between 10.4% and 12.3% it is currently just 7.8%.

Plugging him into both of the in-season projection systems produces the following:

Marcel: 65-211, 6 HR, .310/.352/.486, .838 OPS
Total: 170-605, 15 HR, .282/.319/.429, .748 OPS

ZiPS: 62-213, 6 HR, .291/.332/.451, .783 OPS
Total: 167-607, 15 HR, .275/.314/.417, .731 OPS

While both project the same amount of home runs over the next 50-55 games, ZiPS has him posting a slugging percentage 35 points lower than the Marcel. Both seem to agree, though, or come relatively close to each other in the slash line and OPS departments when looking at his total seasonal line. Unless Cano absolutely destroys his in-season projection this is going to be a down-year for him, but he is not as bad as his current numbers would lead us to believe. Next year will be the test to see if he can bounce back or if this season is the beginning of an early downward trend.

While perusing the league leaderboards last night I noticed that two former Phillies—Gavin Floyd and Kevin Millwood—are on the opposite ends of the ERA-FIP spectrum. Floyd’s -1.45 E-F is the largest negative discrepancy in the American League. Millwood, however, has a +1.31 differential, which ranks behind nobody other than Carlos Silva in his league. By looking solely at their standard barometers of W-L and ERA the seasons of these two pitchers can be very misleading.

Gavin Floyd, White Sox, 25 yrs old
10-6, 3.57 ERA
6.19 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.24 WHIP, .223 BA, 1.31 HR/9
.237 BABIP, 69.7% LOB, 5.02 FIP

Kevin Millwood, Rangers, 33 yrs old
6-6, 5.40 ERA
6.73 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 1.74 WHIP, .326 BA, 0.91 HR/9
.379 BABIP, 69.7% LOB, 4.09 FIP

Millwood has the higher K/9 as well as the lower BB/9 and HR/9. His Zito-esque WHIP and 5.40 ERA can largely be attributed to his .379 BABIP, a number 35 points ahead of closest competitor Livan Hernandez. Though his strand rate isn’t abnormally below average, Millwood has allowed plenty of baserunners thanks to no help from balls put in play against him. His 27.1% rate of line drives, which leads the league, could account for this; next closest is Jon Garland’s 24.2%. Over the past three years, when his BABIP was lower, he posted line drive rates of 20.6%-21.3%.

Floyd’s ERA is deceiving not just due to his controllable skills but also because he has actually allowed more runs to score than it would suggest. Floyd has allowed just 49 earned runs but 66 total runs; that’s 17 unearned runs that have scored against him not taken into account with his ERA. He also has the second lowest BABIP in the league, behind only Justin Duchsherer, and the seventh lowest line drive rate. While both he and Millwood have identical strand rates, Floyd has allowed much fewer runners to reach base thanks to an unsustainably low BABIP; Millwood’s has essentially been unsustainably high.

What happens when we plug these guys into the in-season Marcel?

Floyd: 11 GS, 4.85 FIP, 67 IP, 62 H, 25 BB, 46 K, 1.31 WHIP
Millwood: 11 GS, 4.04 FIP, 58 IP, 73 H, 21 BB, 44 K, 1.61 WHIP

All told, Floyd would end with an FIP of 4.96 and Millwood much lower at 4.07. Regardless, Floyd could win 14-15 games and look much better than he should whereas Millwood would have been the better pitcher in terms of controllable skills; his results, however, would be much worse. He can’t possibly keep up a .379 BABIP, just like Floyd can’t possibly sustain a .237, but it might be too late for their regression to make a truly significant impact on their overall seasonal lines. If anything it should still lessen their ERA-FIP differentials.

This is just another example of how W-L and ERA don’t necessarily do a pitcher justice. It seems like forever ago that Millwood was an important part of the Braves rotation, and toiling in Texas, owners of perhaps the worst rotation of the last fifteen or so years in 2007, hasn’t helped, but he has definitely been much better than his numbers suggest this year.

While it’s certainly possible for pitchers to outdo their FIP with ERA (see: Carlos Zambrano) I would tend to bet Floyd won’t fall into this category. Then again, I could be biased due to seeing him struggle for the Phillies early on. Floyd has been a key component of the first place White Sox, who quite possibly have the best rotation in the league (it’s either them or Toronto), but his success is hinged upon a ridiculously low BABIP. It won’t even out as the remainder of the season plays out but I would be hard-pressed to believe that, assuming he hovers around the average strand rate, when his BABIP regresses that his ERA will stay in the 3.57 range.

His story may not follow the same Hollywood storyline as Chris Coste, but Athletics rookie reliever Brad Ziegler has made quite a splash since his call to the big leagues on May 30. Ziegler, who maintains his own blog titled Getting Ziggy With It at Athletics Nation, was drafted in 2002 by the Athletics before returning to school, incidentally where he played alongside Ryan Howard. The Phillies drafted him the following year but, following shoulder tendinitis, deemed him unworthy of even their low single-A affiliate.

Though the outlook appeared to be bleak, Brad caught on with an independent team and, after four starts, found himself a member of the Athletics farm system. After a few seasons in the minors, Ziegler shifted to a sidearm or submarine delivery and steadily improved. Following a strong start in AAA this year, the Athletics brought him up to “the show,” where he has yet to disappoint.

In fact, he has tossed 27 innings without allowing a runner to cross home plate. While not even half of Orel Hershiser’s consecutive scoreless innings streak it is actually the new record for most scoreless innings to begin a major league career. The previous record, 25 innings, belonged to George McQuillan who did so in 1907, his rookie year with the Phillies.

Brad doesn’t throw hard but currently possesses a groundball rate of 69.9%; his GB/FB is a ridiculous 4.64. Given the amount of flyballs given up we would expect him to have surrendered at least one home run, so it isn’t as if his lack of gopher balls is extremely lucky. Overall his numbers look like this:

0.00 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, .202 BABIP, 4.33 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 2.17 K/BB, 100% LOB

He isn’t striking out many hitters but his low walk rate has resulted in a quite respectable strikeout to walk ratio. Few runners have reached base thanks to an extremely low BABIP and the aforementioned walk rate, and as his 100% LOB and new record suggests, none of these runners have scored. 27 major league innings isn’t really enough to gauge anything with regards to a true talent level or expected results moving forward, but here are Brad’s current ranks amongst relievers with at least 20 innings pitched:

T-1st, least home runs allowed with 0
1st, 0.00 ERA (second place is Joe Nathan at 1.05)
1st, 100% LOB%
1st, 4.64 GB/FB
2nd, 69.9% GB (Roy Corcoran of the Mariners is higher)
4th, .202 BABIP
4th, 0.81 WHIP
6th, 1.44 REW
T-9th, 1.05 WPA/LI (tied with Jonathan Papelbon)
10th, 2.00 BB/9

Suffice it to say, Brad Ziegler has had a very impressive first 23 games, ranking in the top ten in a number of statistical categories. His numbers may regress as the season goes on but he has done enough at this point to be known as more than a former teammate of Ryan Howard. Brad is definitely, as his blog suggets, getting ziggy with it, and opposing hitters are paying the price.

Following my post last week about Carl Pavano‘s contract a lively discussion ensued in which it was argued that Barry Zito’s was much worse. The reasoning for this being that Pavano’s absence didn’t necessarily hurt the Yankees whereas Zito would actually be hurting the Giants with his poor pitching each start. Yes, it bordered on the absurd to offer him a 7-yr/126 million dollar deal following the 2006 season, but, in looking at his numbers I found that his 2006 seasonal line and current numbers in 2008 shared a similarity.

In 2006 he produced a 4.89 FIP; so far this year he is at 4.98. In 2006, however, his ERA ended up 3.83, a number much lower than the current 5.80. Essentially, both of these seasons resulted in very similar metrics of controllable skills yet one involved an ERA a full point lower and the other is featuring an ERA almost an entire point higher. What’s the difference?

For starters, he has allowed a ton of baserunners this year, posting a 1.80 WHIP following his poor performance last night. He always walked plenty of hitters but this year his walk rate is higher and his BABIP, which hasn’t ever been higher than .300 in his career, is currently .332. On top of that, his strand rate isf 65.2%, meaning that he is allowing baserunners at an insanely alarming clip and allowing them to score at a rate well below the average. In 2006, his strand rate was well above average at 78.5%.

In 2006 he walked 4.03 batters per nine innings while fanning 6.15 per nine. This year, the strikeout rate is similar, coming in at 5.88 K/9, but the BB/9 has risen to 5.63. Despite the vast increase in walks, his home run rate is down, which has allowed the FIPs in each of these seasons to be within .09 of one another. Using the in-season Marcel projector, Zito is expected to produce this over the remaining two months:

2008 Remainder Marcel: 12 GS, 60 IP, 64 H, 30 BB, 44 K, 1.57 WHIP, 4.55 FIP

Compare then his overall line with this projection to his 2006 season:

2008: 33 GS, 169.0 IP, 192 H, 98 BB, 115 K, 1.72 WHIP, 4.82 FIP
2006: 34 GS, 221.0 IP, 211 H, 99 BB, 151 K, 1.40 WHIP, 4.89 FIP

Dan Szymborski, creator of the ZiPS projection system, was kind enough to send me his in-season projector this weekend and so what happens when we plug Zito into that?

2008 Remainder ZiPS: 12 GS, 68 IP, 67 H, 34 BB, 49 K, 1.54 WHIP, 4.55 FIP

Substitute ZiPS for Marcel in the 2006 vs. 2008 comparison to get the following:

2008: 33 GS, 176.2 IP, 195 H, 102 BB, 120 K, 1.70 WHIP, 4.82 FIP
2006: 34 GS, 221.0 IP, 211 H, 99 BB, 151 K, 1.40 WHIP, 4.89 FIP

And, in comparing the two projections for Zito over the remainder we see virtually the same results: He is not as bad as his numbers thus far would suggest but he isn’t necessarily good either:

Marcel: 12 GS, 60 IP, 64 H, 30 BB, 44 K, 1.57 WHIP, 4.55 FIP
ZiPS: 12 GS, 68 IP, 67 H, 34 BB, 49 K, 1.52 WHIP, 4.55 FIP

It seems that Zito was not as good as some of his 2006 numbers would suggest nor is he as bad as some of his 2008 numbers suggest. He’s not a very effective pitcher anymore but he is a very expensive and handsomely paid one. If we didn’t know his name and just heard about a pitcher with his numbers coupled with an 84-85 mph fastball and a lack of control, I would tend to think we would all question how he is a major league pitcher. We may not be at that point completely yet with Zito, but that corner may be turned quite soon.

On April 12, the Orioles made arguably their most productive move of the season, regardless of whether or not they had any idea it would work out that way. They optioned infielder Scott Moore to the minors and recalled 24-yr old pitcher Jim Johnson. Johnson, a starter in the minor leagues, had made two “audition” starts for the Orioles in 2006 and 2007, racking up the undesirable line of 5 IP, 12 H, 10 ER, 5 BB, 1 K. His minor league numbers suggested he was better than that and, since making his 2008 debut on April 13, he has been a key component on an its-surprising-they-aren’t-thirty-games-under-.500 team.

Johnson also stakes claim as the highest-ranked reliever with both a 1.85 WPA/LI and 2.15 REW. Relative to context-neutral wins and wins based on shifts in run expectancy, there has not been a more productive relief pitcher to this date. His overall numbers this year: 43 G, 57.1 IP, 34 H, 24 BB, 30 K. He has also surrendered 12 earned runs on the year, four of which came in one outing in the last couple of weeks.

His 3.30 FIP suggests an ERA of 1.88 has not necessarily been born out of his controllable skillset and, amongst relievers with at least 40.0 IP, his ERA-FIP differential ranks tenth in baseball. The higher FIP is also a direct result of his low strikeout rates and relatively high walk rates. While giving out 3.77 free passes every nine innings won’t lose a reliever his job, especially when comparing him to his peers, the 4.71 K/9 is, at least right now, a bit of a red flag. Looking at the same group of relievers with forty or more innings tossed, his K/9 is the fifth lowest, as is his K/BB. Due to only 34 hits allowed, though, his WHIP is currently a tremendous 1.01.

The question should then become, well, if he doesn’t strike anyone out and his walk rate isn’t that impressive, how has he managed to produce an extremely respectable 3.30 FIP? The answer: he has not given up a home run yet this year. In 43 games, not one ball has left the yard in fair territory after sailing from his hand to the batter’s box. In fact, he is the only reliever with forty or more innings not to serve up a gopher ball this year.

In the minors he had decent but not overwhelming numbers, but his 93-94 mph fastball and 78 mph curveball combination has definitely more than gotten the job done to this point in his first full year in the big leagues. He has only given up, as mentioned, 34 hits this year but his BABIP is a ridiculously low .205. Either Jim Johnson is going to emerge as the elitest of relievers or this is going to regress from here on out. His strand rate of 78% is high but nowhere near the likes of Joe Nathan and his companions atop the leaderboard.

He isn’t allowing a ton of baserunners primarily because balls put in play haven’t been falling in for hits as much. If/when that regresses we can expect the BABIP and WHIP to rise. Though his strand rate isn’t ridiculously high, it is well above average and, if sustainable, will help prevent some of these “new” baserunners from scoring. Regardless, even if or when his numbers do worsen, it won’t mask how effective he has been this year or make us forget that at the end of July he was one of baseball’s most effective relievers. It will take another year or two to know his true talent level but that does not take anything away from his productivity.

In yesterday’s Phillies-Mets game, Damion Easley picked up three hits in his five at-bats, all of which were infield singles. Upon witnessing the third of these singles it hit me somewhat quickly that, wow, Easley has been around for a long, long time. His major league career began in 1992, meaning that this is his seventeenth major league season. In fact, Easley’s career began so long ago that his first employer was actually the California Angels, not the Anaheim Angels, or even the Los Angeles Angels of Californian Los Anaheim like today.

The title is a bit facetious given that I was well aware Easley still belonged to a major league club but is anyone else surprised in the least that he has been able to stick around for seventeen years?

It isn’t as if Easley had the peak years of a star shortstop either. Easley’s peak came between 1997 and 2001, with the Tigers, where an average season looked like this: 147 G, 142 H-544 AB, 32 2B, 19 HR, 53 BB, 101 K, .262/.342/.435, .777 OPS. Say what you will about the OPS metric but, amongst those with 500+ games played in this five-year span, Easley’s ranks 124th, right in the vicinity of Jose Offerman, Michael Tucker, and Troy O’ Leary. Essentially, his peak was not terrible, but I would generally have a hard time believing that a player with a .777 OPS in a five-year peak would be a seventeen year veteran.

His best season came in 1998, when he slugged 27 home runs, good enough to earn quite the curious berth in the Home Run Derby. One of my favorite aspects of baseball is how, on occasion, the smaller details will stick with us. With Easley, I couldn’t quote you his career numbers or peak stats without some research, or even name all of the teams that employed him (Angels, Tigers, Devil Rays, Marlins, DBacks, Mets) without glancing at his player page, but I’ll always remember how odd it looked in the 1998 derby when Easley stood next to all of those proven sluggers… though, to his credit he did out-HR one Chipper Jones on that fateful day in Coors Field.

Since his peak, Easley has largely become a reserve, making spot starts here and there and filling in during extended injuries for starters. This in part explains how he has stuck around so long; it isn’t as if he’s a full-time regular anymore. From 2002 until now he has put together a .242/.317/.399 slash line, right on par with Brandon Inge in that same span. The major difference there is that Inge was a starter for the majority of those numbers. Though that likely explains more about the misuse of Inge than anything about Easley, it’s pretty remarkable that the guy has been able to play major league baseball for at least seventeen years, primarily under the radar, and without a peak that would garner him a big reputation.

Back at the beginning of the season we didn’t know a whole lot about the Cincinnati Reds. Dusty Baker had taken over as team skipper and opted to go with Corey Patterson in centerfield over top prospect Jay Bruce. Adam Dunn had shown consistency in being a three true outcomes player, Ken Griffey Jr. had some home run milestone on the horizon, and Aaron Harang had shown himself capable of carrying a pitching staff, but to those outside of Cincinnati the team likely looked no different than Reds teams of the past; teams with some nice pieces that wouldn’t win.

After the first couple weeks of the season, however, it appeared they had found themselves a great young pitcher in rookie Johnny Cueto. The media went nuts over this guy and analysts did their thing with regard to his repertoire and what made him effective. Heck, why wouldn’t they? Through his first two starts he had gone 13.1 innings, surrendering just six hits and three earned runs, while walking nobody and fanning eighteen.

From there he turned inconsistent, mixing some quality starts with a few resulting in five or more earned runs, and lost his spot as the emerging Reds rookie pitcher to Edinson Volquez. In fact, Volquez’s performance thus far has made many forget about Cueto; not necessarily forgetting he exists but rather that he was highly touted as recently as two months ago.

For the season, Cueto has a 4.90 ERA, 4.78 FIP and a 1.36 WHIP. He fans a good deal of hitters, 8.27 K/9, but walks 3.37 per nine innings. Additionally, his 1.61 HR/9 ranks as the 4th worst in the senior circuit and he has been a bit below average in stranding runners. The HR/9 may be a function of his ballpark, however, as teammates Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang literally rank right behind him in that category. Since this is his first season we don’t have much reliable data to gauge his true talent level, so I’ll resort to this season’s numbers for the time being.

He seems to throw three different pitches—a heater, slider, and changeup—with the occasional curveball mixed in. His fastball, however, clocks in at around 93.4 mph according to the BIS data here and even looks a bit faster in the Pitch F/X data. Actually, that 93.4 mph ranks third in the NL in heater velocity, a slight tenth of a mile per hour ahead of teammate Edinson Volquez. It appears Cueto has some good “stuff” and that the lack of luck he received early on has tended to even out, but I’m curious to hear your thoughts on him. How many of you lauded his first two starts and then largely forgot about him? And what do you see moving forward from those who watch him more often?