Baked Zito

Following my post last week about Carl Pavano‘s contract a lively discussion ensued in which it was argued that Barry Zito’s was much worse. The reasoning for this being that Pavano’s absence didn’t necessarily hurt the Yankees whereas Zito would actually be hurting the Giants with his poor pitching each start. Yes, it bordered on the absurd to offer him a 7-yr/126 million dollar deal following the 2006 season, but, in looking at his numbers I found that his 2006 seasonal line and current numbers in 2008 shared a similarity.

In 2006 he produced a 4.89 FIP; so far this year he is at 4.98. In 2006, however, his ERA ended up 3.83, a number much lower than the current 5.80. Essentially, both of these seasons resulted in very similar metrics of controllable skills yet one involved an ERA a full point lower and the other is featuring an ERA almost an entire point higher. What’s the difference?

For starters, he has allowed a ton of baserunners this year, posting a 1.80 WHIP following his poor performance last night. He always walked plenty of hitters but this year his walk rate is higher and his BABIP, which hasn’t ever been higher than .300 in his career, is currently .332. On top of that, his strand rate isf 65.2%, meaning that he is allowing baserunners at an insanely alarming clip and allowing them to score at a rate well below the average. In 2006, his strand rate was well above average at 78.5%.

In 2006 he walked 4.03 batters per nine innings while fanning 6.15 per nine. This year, the strikeout rate is similar, coming in at 5.88 K/9, but the BB/9 has risen to 5.63. Despite the vast increase in walks, his home run rate is down, which has allowed the FIPs in each of these seasons to be within .09 of one another. Using the in-season Marcel projector, Zito is expected to produce this over the remaining two months:

2008 Remainder Marcel: 12 GS, 60 IP, 64 H, 30 BB, 44 K, 1.57 WHIP, 4.55 FIP

Compare then his overall line with this projection to his 2006 season:

2008: 33 GS, 169.0 IP, 192 H, 98 BB, 115 K, 1.72 WHIP, 4.82 FIP
2006: 34 GS, 221.0 IP, 211 H, 99 BB, 151 K, 1.40 WHIP, 4.89 FIP

Dan Szymborski, creator of the ZiPS projection system, was kind enough to send me his in-season projector this weekend and so what happens when we plug Zito into that?

2008 Remainder ZiPS: 12 GS, 68 IP, 67 H, 34 BB, 49 K, 1.54 WHIP, 4.55 FIP

Substitute ZiPS for Marcel in the 2006 vs. 2008 comparison to get the following:

2008: 33 GS, 176.2 IP, 195 H, 102 BB, 120 K, 1.70 WHIP, 4.82 FIP
2006: 34 GS, 221.0 IP, 211 H, 99 BB, 151 K, 1.40 WHIP, 4.89 FIP

And, in comparing the two projections for Zito over the remainder we see virtually the same results: He is not as bad as his numbers thus far would suggest but he isn’t necessarily good either:

Marcel: 12 GS, 60 IP, 64 H, 30 BB, 44 K, 1.57 WHIP, 4.55 FIP
ZiPS: 12 GS, 68 IP, 67 H, 34 BB, 49 K, 1.52 WHIP, 4.55 FIP

It seems that Zito was not as good as some of his 2006 numbers would suggest nor is he as bad as some of his 2008 numbers suggest. He’s not a very effective pitcher anymore but he is a very expensive and handsomely paid one. If we didn’t know his name and just heard about a pitcher with his numbers coupled with an 84-85 mph fastball and a lack of control, I would tend to think we would all question how he is a major league pitcher. We may not be at that point completely yet with Zito, but that corner may be turned quite soon.