The title of this post should be taken quite literally. Cody Ross, a 5’9 outfielder of the Florida Marlins, may not intimidate opposing pitchers with his stature but he sure will with his bat. Over the last 14 days he has been the most productive major league player—hitter or pitcher—with a 1.44 WPA. The player closest to Ross is Jose Guillen, who has a 1.26 WPA in that same span. Ross has posted a .316/.386/.711 slash line in this span, complete with 3 2B, 4 HR, 2 SB, and 11 RBI.

Something really interesting regarding Ross’s numbers is his seasonal slash line: .228/.299/.535. Ross has an OPS of .834 that clearly consists primarily of his power. His ISO counts of this and last year back that up; .318 in 2007, .307 this year. Oddly enough, though, his BABIPs traveled in different directions; .374 last year, .191 this year. Last year’s very high BABIP led to a slash line of .335/.411/.653 in 66 games. With a 1.064 OPS last year Ross showed he could be a productive major leaguer but that OPS looks like a 50/50 balance when stacked up next to this year’s OBP and SLG.

I looked to see if there has been a significant number of instances in which players posted OPS totals above .830 with an OBP under .300 and found the answer to be a resounding no. In fact, since 1901, there have only been three hitters to accomplish this “feat” while playing 50 or more games:

1) Mike Jacobs, 2008: 54 GP, .847 OPS
2) Cody Ross, 2008: 50 GP, .834 OPS
3) Daryle Ward, 2000: 119 GP, .833 OPS

Now, granted Ross and Jacobs are still playing so it is not truly fair to list them alongside Ward; Daryle is the only person to do it for a whole season since 1901. There have likely been others to accomplish what Ross and Jacobs are doing during random 50-game spans but, right now, they are the only two players with these numbers.

For those unaware, Jacobs is also a member of the Marlins. Just two players this year have a sub-.300 OBP and .830+ OPS and both are on the same team. Overall, though, they’ll each need about 60+ games of similar production to reach the level of Ward.

Everyone knew this would be an important season for Cy Young Award incumbent C.C. Sabathia. Pitching in the final of his contract, with the type of money Johan Santana proved pitchers could receive, all Sabathia really needed to do was pitch like some semblance of what we have come to expect from the huge Indians lefty. After his first four starts panic began to surface across some of the blogosphere due to the following numbers:

4 GS, 0-3, 18 IP, 32 H, 27 ER, 14 BB, 14 K
13.50 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, 1.00 K/BB

Those are not numbers indicative of a potential 150 million dollar man. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending how you look at it, Sabathia has been terribly unlucky for most of the season, not just due to his FIP coming in so much lower than his ERA or a very high BABIP, but because his overall numbers are tainted for the most part by just 2 of his 14 starts.

4/11: 3.1 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
4/16: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 5 BB, 1 K

Take away those two starts and here Sabathia’s numbers:

14 GS: 91.1 IP, 95 H, 28 BB, 87 K, 4.34 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
12 GS: 84.0 IP, 75 H, 21 BB, 82 K, 2.79 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Believe me yet when I say those two starts, just 14% of his season, severely affected the rest? Remove them and Sabathia starts to look like teammate Cliff Lee or even current saber-darling Edinson Volquez. While I am normally not a fan of removing information to make someone look better it is hard to look past those two starts, which seem way, way behind him, hindering his overall numbers from reflecting his true performance level.

In fact, lately, Carston Charles has been even better, as from 5/9 to 6/10 he has a 1.77 WPA, thanks in large part to these numbers:

5/9-6/10: 7 GS, 53 IP, 45 H, 10 BB, 50 K, 2.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

Fangraphs recently added a feature on the leaderboards allowing us to look at performance over the last 7, 14, and 30 days; in the last 30, just Scott Kazmir has been a more productive starting pitcher than Sabathia. His overall numbers may look worse than in recent years but do not let them fool you: Over the last month, and essentially ever since April 16, Sabathia has largely (very largely in his case) been himself.

As every baseball fan not living under a rock knows, Ken Griffey Jr. hit his 600th home run last night, putting him in a category with just Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Sammy Sosa. Griffey is currently being managed by Dusty Baker, who previously managed Bonds and Sosa and played alongside Aaron, which is eerily interesting in its own right.

Griffey did not play in much of the Reds/Phillies four game series last week, while stuck on 599, but between 599 and 600 he remained pretty productive, posting the following milestone tweener numbers:

Griffey Between: 6-14, 3 2B, 9 BB, .429/.652/.643, 1.295 OPS

With that in mind I decided to take a look at how the 600 Club sans-Ruth performed in between certain milestones.

Willie Mays: 599 on 9/15/69, 600 on 9/22/69
Between: 7-21, 2B, 2 RBI, .333/.391/.381

Sammy Sosa: 599 on 6/15/07, 600 on 6/20/07
Between: 0-13, 5 K

Barry Bonds: 599 on 8/6/02, 600 on 8/9/02
Between: 3-8, 2B, 5 BB, .375/.700/.500

Barry Bonds: 659 on 4/5/04, 660 on 4/12/04
Between: 4-17, 2B, RBI, 7 BB, .235/.458/.235

Barry Bonds: 699 on 9/12/04, 700 on 9/17/04
Between: 3-9, 2B, RBI, .333/.571/.444

Barry Bonds: 713 on 5/7/06, 714 on 5/20/06
Between: 4-29, 2B, 2 RBI, .138/.400/.172

Barry Bonds: 754 on 7/27/07, 755 on 8/4/07
Between: 2-18, 10 BB, .111/.444/.111

Barry Bonds: 755 on 8/4/07, 756 on 8/7/07
Between: 2-5, 2B, .400/.571/.600

Griffey’s milestone tweener plate appearances produced the highest OPS of this group. Granted, Babe Ruth’s gamelogs are not easily available, and he may have out-OPSd Griffey between some of his milestones but, as a devout baseball fan, regardless of these numbers, I cannot help but wish some of what Dave discussed this morning actually came true.

When the Pirates cut ties with Matt Morris they needed to replace his spot in the rotation. Opting to fill the role with someone already on the major league club, reliever Phil Dumatrait soon found himself a starter. Since assuming the position he has performed quite well; in fact, he has pitched better than in his relief appearances:

SP: 8 G, 44.2 IP, 35 H, 22 BB, 33 K, 3.22 ERA
RP: 10 G, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 13 BB, 13 K, 3.92 ERA

In terms of WPA, Dumatrait clocks in at -0.65 as a reliever but +0.28 as a starter; the +0.28 makes him the most productive Pirates starting pitcher. Additionally, his relief WPA took a severe hit in one outing—with a -0.666. His overall WPA comes in at -0.37 whereas he has a 0.49 WPA/LI and 0.28 REW.

Overall, Dumatrait is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.31 K/BB. He isn’t the best at keeping runners off base but has stranded 75.8% of them.

Looking at his splits vs. batter handedness, lefties have made up just 20.3% of his total batters faced but he has handled them quite effectively:

RHB: 224 PA, .250/.327/.393, 24 BB, 33 K
LHB: 57 PA, .182/.368/.205, 11 BB, 13 K

He has kept batters to a quite low opposing OPS but batters produce better as the leverage of a situation increases:

High Lev.: 48 PA, .211/.313/.395, .707 OPS, .182 BABIP
Med Lev.: 105 PA, .227/.352/.352, .705 OPS, .271 BABIP
Low Lev.: 128 PA, .254/.331/.351, .682 OPS, .311 BABIP

His opposing OPS increases as the importance of the situation increases while their BABIP decreases. The Pirates have been a surprising 30-33 this season (better than many expected at this point) and Dumatrait’s seamless efforts in filling a rotation spot has been one of the major reasons. With their other starters underperforming it will be key for Phil the Pirate Swingman to sustain this general range of performance.

Last week I took a look at how the members of Atlanta’s former big three—Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine—are currently performing. It only made sense to now take a look at Atlanta’s newest incarnation of a big three. The quotes in the title do not imply sarcasm but rather denote the large dropoff in talent from one group to another.

With Smoltz now out for the season, Mike Hampton pulling a Hampton (what we can now call DL-stints for pitchers) and Chuck James pitching in AAA, Bobby Cox has had to get creative with his rotation. These three have seemingly been replaced with Jair Jurrjens, JoJo Reyes, and Jorge Campillo. So, how are the newbies faring?

Jair Jurrjens
13 GS, 6-3, 3.77 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.44 WHIP
76.1 IP, 78 H, 32 BB, 55 K
73.3% LOB, .313 BABIP, 1.72 K/BB
FA: 91.5mph/64.5%, SL: 80.4mph/9.3%, CH: 83.9mph/26.2%
1st 10 GS: 61.1 IP, 50 H, 18 ER, 22 BB, 45 K, +0.884 WPA, 31 RS (3.1/gm)
Last 3 GS: 15.0 IP, 28 H, 14 ER, 10 BB, 10 K, -0.764 WPA, 18 RS (6.0/gm)

Essentially, Jurrjens pitched his best when the Braves weren’t scoring for him but lately, with plenty of runs, he must have felt bad for the oppositions and let them score to make it more competitive.

JoJo Reyes
8 GS, 2-4, 4.80 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
45 IP, 48 H, 16 BB, 42 K
68.9% LOB, .331 BABIP, 2.63 K/BB
FA: 91.3mph/63.8%, SL: 81.5mph/12.5%, CU: 72.7mph/8.6%, CH: 82.3mph/15.2%
5/28 @ Mil: 7 IP, 2 H, ER, 3 BB, 9 K, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
All Others: 38 IP, 46 H, 23 ER, 13 BB, 33 K, 5.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

Reyes throws virtually the same amount of fastballs and sliders as Jurrjens, but splits the rest between a curve and changeup. He has a nice K/BB ratio but he lets many on base and hasn’t been the best at preventing them from scoring.

Jorge Campillo
5 GS (18 GP), 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 1.03 WHIP
45.2 IP, 38 H, 9 BB, 38 K
74.8% LOB, .278 BABIP, 4.22 K/BB
FA: 86.6mph/34.5%, SL: 81.7mph/19.2%, CU: 71.0mph/12.4%, CH: 75.3mph/27.3%
As SP: 5 G, 24.1 IP, 22 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .663 OPS
As RP: 13 G, 21.1 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .516 OPS

Almost 30 years old and still considered a rookie, Campillo pitched so well out of the pen he earned a spot in the rotation. Since joining he really has not disappointed. Campillo is the definitive example of a “comfortable 0-fer” as hitters will not be dominated by his pitching but could very easily find themselves 0-4 at the end of the day, wondering how this guy stopped them.

OK, so Jurrjens/Reyes/Campillo isn’t anywhere near Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine… but if Braves fans want to be discussing their Divisional Series opponents in October, you better believe these three will need to at the very least channel and sustain Steve Avery/John Burkett/Denny Neagle for the rest of the season.

Anybody who has seen the Adam Sandler film Happy Gilmore will remember that his character generated power and distance on his drives thanks to a running start. Well, in watching the replay of last night’s Phillies-Braves game I saw rookie outfielder Gregor Blanco do something similar in an at-bat of his. Check it out:

Whatever he did worked as he singled on that pitch but Chris Wheeler said it best, “..that is different!” The Braves, in the Schuerholz era, have been known for their propensity to develop young players and Blanco is no different. He has not posted superstar-caliber numbers but has filled in nicely. In 49 games he has a .269/.379/.343 slash line. His hits have mostly been singles but he does have 5 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR.

His .354 BABIP looks quite high but actually comes in a bit low when stacked up next to his gaudy 27.2% LD rate. He has been in a slump lately, going just 5 for his last 34, but he has hit a ton of line drives this year. His K% suggests he might not be able to sustain his current performance level but his LD rate argues it should be a bit better. Only time will tell what lies in store for “Blankman” (his nickname, not the Damon Wayans film) but at least he won’t have to deal with the evil Shooter McGavin, no matter how ridiculous that swing looked.

When the Braves won their nine-hundred consecutive division titles they did so in large part with the help of their stellar pitching rotation. The Big Three, they were called, referring to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz; three aces that could easily headline every other rotation in the league but served as 60% of the same one. Glavine left Atlanta after 2002 and Maddux left after 2003. Smoltz stayed.

Five or six years later, these three are in the twilight of their careers, albeit at different stages of said twilight. Smoltz will undergo season-ending surgery and, despite proclaiming he would make a comeback attempt, recovering from surgery provides ample time to do nothing but think and consider options. Glavine rejoined the Braves but has not been particularly effective and seems to be a shell of his old self. Maddux is still pitching quite well, regardless of his home park, but has hinted that the time has come to watch his son play baseball, rather than vice-versa.

Before Smoltz got hurt, he was continuing his dominance as a starter, posting these numbers:

5 GS, 28 IP, 25 H, 8 BB, 36 K
2.57 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 1.18 FIP, 82.8% LOB

Smoltz, whose career LD% is around 20.2%, was limiting hitters to just 13.9% this year; despite that, his BABIP clocked in at .349. Odd.

Glavine has not been as unlucky as Smoltz and, as his ERA-FIP suggests, it has actually been the other way around:

11 GS, 56.1 IP, 59 H, 29 BB, 34 K
4.47 ERA, 5.24 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, 75.6% LOB

His K/BB has plummeted to just 1.17 and his HR/FB of 15.1 is the highest it has ever been. He lets a lot of guys reach base but strands 3/4 of them. Interestingly enough, his BABIP of .269 is down from the .292-.305 range of the last three years.

Maddux plays in a notorious pitcher’s park in San Diego, but still, his FIP has steadily improved since leaving Atlanta:

13 GS, 77.2 IP, 80 H, 12 BB, 42 K
3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 67.0% LOB

Essentially the opposite of Glavine, Maddux doesn’t let many runners reach base but more of them come around to score. With regards to BABIP, Maddux once mentioned (when discussing DIPS) that it was definitely true that a pitcher’s hits allowed would fluctuate; still, Maddux’s BABIPs of the last six years have been: .290, .290, .296, .295, .313, .295. Not too much fluctuation there! Maddux also has a 0.68 WPA, ranking behind just Jake Peavy as the most from a Padres SP.

I always wanted to see these three retire together so they could all go into the Hall of Fame at the same time. With Smoltz’s impending surgery and the time in which he will be forced to consider his future, this very well may happen. All three are no-doubters, in my eyes, when it comes to the HOF, due to their dominance, individual and team success on the field, and the legendary ambassadorship they have garnered over the years.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens but I am definitely not looking forward to a baseball season in which none of these three will be active.

Aaron Rowand, by all accounts, had a career year last season with the Phillies. In 161 games he boasted a slash line of .309/.374/.515, complete with 27 HR, 89 RBI, and 45 doubles. Playing in the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park caused many, myself included, to speculate his performance would drop off the radar when he signed a 5-yr/60 mil deal with the Giants. Going from a career year in a notorious hitter’s park to an equally notorious pitcher’s park would make intuitive bells ring with regards to a regression of sorts.

His numbers at home have not been anywhere near those on the road this year—.777 OPS vs. 1.084 OPS—but those road numbers have been stellar enough to result in an overall slash line of .328/.396/.527.

Rowand has seen his BB%, BABIP, and HR/FB increase each year from 2006 until now, but one number is going in the opposite direction, which is quite puzzling: His percentage of contact has steadily decreased. Not necessarily surprising, this has caused an increase in K%.

His overall statistics have improved from 2006 to today but he is putting his bat on the ball less often; 73.46% of the time as compared to 80.78% in 2006.

2006: 80.78% Contact, .297 BABIP
2007: 78.29% Contact, .348 BABIP
2008: 73.46% Contact, .389 BABIP

This could point towards Rowand fouling the ball off less often; perhaps instead of making noticeably less contact he is either swinging and missing or putting it into play much more often than the past. He might not sustain this level of performance all year long but it is definitely counterintuitive to say that a guy making less contact will increase his production… but I guess that’s why they* call him Aaron “Counterintuitive” Rowand.

*-nobody calls him that.

Aaron Harang lost Tuesday night, despite pitching well, continuing his general 2008 theme of solid pitching and receiving next to no run support. The loss to the Phillies dropped him to 2-8 on the season; yet, looking at all of his statistics sans W-L would lead many to believe his record would be MUCH better. In the spirit of unluckiness take a look at Harang’s 2008 stacked up next to Matt Cain‘s 2007 and Brandon Webb’s 2004:

Aaron Harang (2008)
13 GS, 88.2 IP, 94 H, 20 BB, 78 K
2-8, 3.86 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 76.1% LOB
.323 BABIP vs. .313 career BABIP
HR/FB 10.6% vs. 10.2% in 2007 and 10.5% in 2006
2.98 RS/9, 2nd Worst Run Support in NL

Matt Cain (2007)
32 GS, 200 IP, 173 H, 79 BB, 163 K
7-16, 3.65 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 72.9% LOB
.284 BABIP vs. .271 career BABIP
5.5% HR/FB vs. 7.1% in 2006 and 5.9% in 2005
3.51 RS/9, Worst Run Support in NL/MLB

Brandon Webb (2004)
35 GS, 208 IP, 194 H, 119 BB, 164 K
7-16, 3.59 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 71.0% LOB
.295 BABIP vs .293 career BABIP
HR/FB 15.0% vs 15.4% in 2003 (career 13.6%)
4.24 RS/9, 8th in NL

Overall, Cain and Harang seem unluckier due to Webb’s much higher FIP and rank in run support. Still, none of these three deserve the W-L records listed here, and if the Reds don’t start scoring for Harang he could easily surpass Cain in this area of unjust results.

For those who read the title and thought this post had something to do with food, I apologize, it does not. Instead, the spread I speak of refers to the pitch distribution in the Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation. Last month, when writing about Shaun Marcum’s hot start, some loyal readers commented that he was one of very few pitchers that threw five different pitches at least 10% of the time. Trying to verify this assertion I discovered that were only two other pitchers that fit this bill: Adam Eaton and Andy Sonnanstine.

It was recently revealed to me that Jesse Litsch joined the 5/~10% club. Catchy title, eh? I named it myself.

Now, not many starting pitchers throw even four different pitches at least 9-10% of the time and the Blue Jays have three of them: Dustin McGowan (4), Jesse Litsch (5), and Shaun Marcum (5). Group the three of them with the steady three-pitch mix of Roy Halladay and the fastball-curveball combo of A.J. Burnett and you have one extremely solid rotation.

Here are their pitch distributions, with velocity/frequency:

Roy Halladay: FA 92.7/45.9, CT 90.5/25.0, CB 78.2/23.6
A.J. Burnett: FA 94.1/66.2, CB 80.5/26.4
Dustin McGowan: FA 95.1/59.2, SL 87.6/19.3, CB 81.4/11.3, CH 86.7/10.1
Jesse Litsch: FA 88.8/17.7, SL 82.2/22.9, CT 85.0/37.5, CB 76.8/12.9, CH 80.0/9.0
Shaun Marcum: FA 86.8/39.0, SL 81.4/15.5, CT 84.5/14.0, CB 74.8/10.0, CH 80.9/21.5

Not only does this rotation mix their pitches effectively but their speeds as well; McGowan’s changeup is the same speed as Marcum’s fastball. Lastly, take a look at their stats:

Roy Halladay: 3.01 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 5 CG, 12 BB, 72 K, 1.51 WPA
A.J. Burnett: 4.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 33 BB, 71 K, 0.17 WPA
Dustin McGowan: 3.95 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 28 BB, 55 K, 0.72 WPA
Jesse Litsch: 3.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9 BB, 33 K, 0.80 WPA
Shaun Marcum: 2.63 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 22 BB, 67 K, 1.89 WPA

Their “worst” ERA is 4.14 and just one WHIP is over 1.40. Overall, the rotation has contributed 5.09 wins while being a steady and major factor in the success of the team. Perhaps their pitching coach has preached different spreads in order to, as a rotation, keep teams off kilter; whatever it is, though, it definitely seems to be working.