In Sunday’s 18-inning marathon between the Reds and Padres, pitchers Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez made uncharacteristic appearances out of the bullpen. After ruffling through eight different pitchers in twelve innings, the Reds found themselves out of traditional relief resources. Harang came in for the 13th-16th innings while Volquez pitched the 17th before surrendering a walkoff home run with two outs in the 18th. Though odd that they pitched out of the bullpen, period, the actual ingredients comprising these appearances are even more interesting.

Harang had pitched just three days earlier, against the same Padres, experiencing his worst start of the season. In it he went just 5.1 innings, giving up 10 hits and 5 runs; he also walked two and struck out seven. This start had been one of just two stains on an otherwise very solid albeit unlucky season for the Reds ace. In his career, Harang had never pitched on just two days rest. Based on his performance against the Padres, perhaps he should more often!

Okay, I’m kidding, and would never base a statement like that off of just one game but Harang might have pitched his best on Sunday. In four innings of relief work he gave up just two hits and struck out nine batters. His nine strikeouts happened to be his season high. Harang was clearly aided by imposing shadows, causing some feeble and futile swings from Padres hitters; for a guy as unlucky as he throughout this season this goes down as positive karma in my book.

Volquez, on the other hand, had pitched two days prior, striking out 12 Padres hitters in six innings of two-hit, one-run work. Volquez has been so good this season that his ERA actually went up after that outing. On Sunday, though, Volquez went 1.2 innings, walking one and striking out two. He also gave up one hit which proved to be the game-winner. With two on and two out in the bottom of the 18th, he gave up a walkoff three-run home run to Adrian Gonzalez.

Despite garnering the loss, the three runs were all unearned because, a few plays earlier, Joey Votto botched a routine play to first base. Volquez pitched six tremendous innings on Friday, giving up one run, and yet he raised his ERA; on Sunday he gave up a three-run home run and his ERA went down.

Based on the WPA results, Volquez’s -.216 deemed this his worst appearance of the season while Harang’s +.568 was far and away his best.

For most of the season all eyes directed towards the Phillies offense have been focused on Chase Utley. And why not? After all, Chase can be found in the top five or top ten in just about every offensive category in the National League. Recently, though, Utley has hit a coldspell, posting a .203/.294/.356 slash line in his last sixteen games. Luckily for the Phillies, others have stepped up and filled the void.

My brother, who covers the Phillies at Phanatic Phollow Up, wrote yesterday about how not just one but many Phillies hitters are stepping up at this juncture. In his first 19 games, Shane Victorino had a .626 OPS; in his last 19 games it has been .773, raising his season OPS to .703. Geoff Jenkins had a .237/.284/.329 slash line through 24 games; in his last 21 it has been .339/.358/.468. Even Pedro Feliz is at a .304/.333/.478 clip over his last 12 games.

Of all the players stepping up, none is more satisfying to Phillies fans than Ryan Howard. Since May 7th, Howard has played 18 games, with a .264/.321/.681 slash line, 4 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR and 18 RBI. On the season he has 14 HR, coming in just behind Lance Berkman, Dan Uggla, and teammate Utley. Howard is still striking out, 28 K in these 18 games, but the extra base hits, about half of which have been to the opposite field, are definitely a promising sign.

He puts about one-third of his flyballs into the stands and hits a lot of balls hard, as evidenced by his ~20% line drives. Despite lacking anything resembling speed, Howard has had very high BABIPs for his career; .375 in 2004, .358 in 2005, .363 in 2006, .336 in 2007. This year, however, it is only .245. This should regress to his mean as the season progresses meaning Howard could, and probably will, defy his critics by having what ends up as a good season.

The strikeouts are definitely a problem but, unlike in April, when he was just striking out, now he is striking out and hitting the ball hard, often out of the stadium.

Last year the Yankees struggled in the first half of the season and fought their way back into playoff contention. This year, it is no secret they are underachieving, prompting many analysts to question whether this will be the season in which the Yanks miss the postseason. In an attempt to determine what is going wrong with the team I turned to their team page and became fascinated with the numbers of Jason Giambi.

Believe it or not, Giambi is one of just three Yankees hitters with a WPA of at least 0.15; his 0.17 comes in behind just Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu. Additionally, he has a WPA/LI of 0.73, much higher than his WPA.

What will turn many fans off is his lowly .236 batting average. When put into perspective with the rest of his slash line—.236/.384/.516—it becomes clear that the batting average truly does not do his production justice. He has just 29 hits but 8 are doubles and 9 are home runs. Those 9 HR lead the Yankees and his 24 RBIs ranks second to Abreu.

Giambi has increased his BB% from a year ago and decreased his K% from 26 to 15. His LD/GB/FB rates were virtually identical in both 2006 and 2007, coming in at 16.4/30.2/53.4; this year he has BIP rates of 19.4/28.7/51.9. He is hitting more line drives and yet has just a .208 BABIP. We have talked here a lot about expected BABIP and how it works for hitters, so we would expect Giambi to be closer to the .314 range with this percentage of line drives. Now, this isn’t to say he will sustain 19.4% LD all season but that frequency should roughly correlate to the aforementioned BABIP.

Looking at Giambi’s numbers from 2002-2007, the only year in which his BABIP and xBABIP differed significantly was 2003; generally speaking, his BABIPs have been close to what his percentage of line drives would suggest.

What really interested me about Giambi is his shift in swing and contact percentages. He currently leads the league with the lowest percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone. Giambi has swung at just 9.9% of outside pitches, making contact on 51.7% of those swings. Last year he swung at 18.2% of the pitches outside the zone, likely contributing to his higher K%.

He has swung at 67.9% of pitches in the zone, making contact on 88.5% of them; the 88.5% puts him right in the 50th percentile. Overall, these swing and contact shifts have resulted in Giambi making contact four percent more often than a year ago. Giambi might not be the player he was five years ago, steroids or not, but his numbers seemingly absolve him from blame for the Yankees early struggles.

Entering tonight’s action the Twins have a 23-24 record and are just 3.5 games behind the first place White Sox. Though the 2008 season is still relatively young, I think it is safe to say most of us did not expect the Twinkies to be so close to .500, at any point this season. By trading the best pitcher in the game, Johan Santana, for a slew of prospects, the Twins seemed poised for a rebuilding phase; one that would not necessarily bring with it much success this year. Despite this, the Twins are no cakewalk and catcher Joe Mauer is a major reason why.

Though Joe is yet to hit his first home run, he is posting a .333/.404/.413 slash line, which gives him the highest catcher-OPS in the American League; only Geovany Soto and Brian McCann have higher OPS counts for catchers. Additionally, he has struck out just 13 times in 150 at-bats, the fifth lowest K% in the AL.

He leads the Twins with a 1.39 WPA, 1.09 REW, and 11.29 BRAA. His WPA surpasses everyone else on his team so much so that it would take the aggregate sum of Justin Morneau, Carlos Gomez, Craig Monroe, and Scott Baker to roughly equal Mauer’s contributions. He is hitting the same percentage of flyballs from a year ago but has replaced 5.5% of his grounders with line drives this year.

The area of Mauer’s statistics that fascinates me most is his selectivity. He has swung at a very low 16.2% of pitches outside of the strike zone yet has increased his out of zone contact by nearly ten percent. This increase has given him the highest percentage of contact out of the zone in the league.

In the strike zone, Mauer has an almost identical percentage of swings to last year, and only Bobby Abreu has swung at less in the zone in the AL. Despite his low frequency of swings in the zone he ranks 8th in zone contact.

A commonly accepted creed is for the batter to “wait for his pitch.” Well, Mauer not only waits for his pitches more often than the vast majority of the league, but he makes good use of them!

When I posted my article on Kosuke Fukudome yesterday, loyal reader VegasWatch pointed out that the Cubs outfielder’s opening day home run likely contributed the bulk of his 0.52 clutch score. Therefore, after being given the label of “clutch” the net sum of all of Kosuke’s clutchiness would not add up to much.

The formula for clutch, as defined in the glossary here, is:

Clutch = WPA/pLI – WPA/LI

For further clarification, pLI refers to the average leverage index of all game events for a given player while WPA/LI refers to context neutral wins; in other words, what the player produced regardless of the situation he entered into. This formula calculates the performance level of a player in crucial situations relative to his standard production. If a player has a .330 batting average in high leverage situations but hits .330 everywhere else, he is not considered clutch. This is not to say he lacks talent, but rather he just produces at a high level in all situations and isn’t necessarily stepping his game up in crucial plate appearances.

The Kosuke example made me wonder which other players were greatly benefiting from a big play. Looking at the top eight clutch scores before the stats updated last night, I tracked the biggest individual play for each of the eight and compared the clutch score of that singular play to the net sum of their other plays. This way we can see which player’s clutch labels are truly derived from one big play as opposed to those who have been a bit more consistent in stepping up. Here are the eight, with their overall clutch score and the three required components of their biggest play – note that the pLI refers to the season average, not the game average:

Pat Burrell (1.33): 0.899 WPA, 3.56 LI, 1.09 pLI
Melvin Mora (1.30): 0.418 WPA, 5.14 LI, 1.04 pLI
Freddy Sanchez (1.27): 0.363 WPA, 4.65 LI, 1.03 pLI
Skip Schumaker (0.93): 0.287 WPA, 4.29 LI, 1.04 pLI
Jeremy Hermida (0.86): 0.294 WPA, 2.61 LI, 0.94 pLI
Bobby Abreu (0.84): 0.512 WPA, 5.44 LI, 0.92 pLI
Manny Ramirez (0.81): 0.482 WPA, 2.38 LI, 0.95 pLI
Joe Mauer (0.80): 0.364 WPA, 4.35 LI, 1.07 pLI

With these figures, here is the breakdown of the big play clutch vs. the clutch in all other plate appearances:

Pat Burrell: 0.57 big play, 0.76 other
Melvin Mora: 0.32 big play, 0.98 other
Freddy Sanchez: 0.27 big play, 1.00 other
Skip Schumaker: 0.21 big play, 0.72 other
Jeremy Hermida: 0.20 big play, 0.66 other
Bobby Abreu: 0.46 big play, 0.38 other
Manny Ramirez: 0.30 big play, 0.51 other
Joe Mauer: 0.26 big play, 0.54 other

Pat Burrell had the most clutch “big play” when he hit a walkoff two-run home run against the Giants on May 2nd. However, according to these numbers, Abreu actually benefited the most from his play; he is the only one whose big play exceeded the net sum of all other clutch plays.

On the flipside, Freddy Sanchez and Melvin Mora have been very consistent in raising their performance level in high leverage situations. When talking about a player’s clutchiness, though, it really only takes one or two big plays to cement the label. We could remove the one big play and look at all other performances but since one play can change a fan’s perception of clutchiness that just would not be fair; regardless of whether or not the clutch benefits from a huge play or a group of smaller plays added together, the bottom line is that these players have helped their team win games by stepping up in crucial situations.

Down three runs in the ninth inning on opening day, Kosuke Fukudome belted a three-run homer off of Eric Gagne to tie the game. The Cubs would ultimately lose, but Kosuke had earned himself the clutch label, and labels can be very hard to break. In certain cases these labels are undeserved, like calling David Ortiz clutch based on past results; the stats here at Fangraphs show he was one of the least clutch players last season and he has a -0.32 score this season. Likewise, players with negative labels will find themselves hard pressed to shake off the opinions pointed in their direction.

Looking at Kosuke’s numbers, however, it seems he was properly labeled, at least so far. In case you cannot recite all of his numbers off the top of your head, here they are:

Fukudome 2008
46 GP, 51-167, 11 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 30 BB, 27 K
.305/.409/.439, .355 BABIP
1.11 WPA, 0.58 WPA/LI, 0.52 Clutch

More facts about him? Well, his home/road splits have been pretty drastic:

Home: .393/.505/.562
Road: .205/.292/.282

And his splits with runners on base are drastic as well:

Nobody On: 104 PA, .261/.346/.337, 12 BB, 18 K
Runners On: 95 PA, .360/.479/.547, 18 BB, 9 K

The clutch score is what stuck with me, though, as he ranks 10th in the NL. Looking at a few other areas that could determine clutchiness, the results seemed to match:

High Leverage: 40 PA, .412/.462/.647
Within 1 Run: 49 PA, .361/.463/.482
Tie Game: 100 PA, .419/.490/.581

The clutch stat here does not measure performance in clutch situations but rather how a player performs in the high leverage situations as compared to context-neutral situations. Based on that definition, Kosuke is definitely stepping up in the situations in which his team needs him to. He might not be lighting the world on fire with extra base hits but these numbers clearly suggest Kosuke still deserves the label assigned on opening day.

By acquiring Dan Haren the Diamondbacks front office made it clear that this team could legitimately contend for a world series title as soon as this year. Placing a clear cut AL ace in Haren alongside one of the game’s best and most consistent in Brandon Webb would provide quite the formidable 1-2 punch.

Almost two months into the season, Webb and Haren have been more than a 1-2 punch; they have been a 1-1A punch, with Webb pitching out of this world and Haren performing like a true ace. In fact, some of their stats are pretty similar too. Take a look.

Brandon Webb
9-0, 2.56 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.88 K/BB
9 GS, 63.1 IP, 46 H, 17 BB, 49 K
70.3% LOB, .253 BABIP, .293 xBABIP
17.3/65.4/17.3 LD/GB/FB (Career: 18.2/64.3/17.5)

Dan Haren
5-2, 3.14 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 4.50 K/BB
9 GS, 57.1 IP, 46 H, 10 BB, 45 K
68.0% LOB, .260 BABIP, .303 xBABIP
18.3/47.6/34.1 LD/GB/FB (Career: 19.5/45.0/35.5)

Both prevent runners from reaching base but are slightly below average in stranding them. They are also each about forty percentage points better in the BABIP department than their line drive rate would suggest. Webb and Haren have also changed their pitch selection and frequency. Webb is throwing 3% less fastballs and 3% less curveballs; the difference is made up by a 6% increase in changeup usage. Haren, on the other hand has replaced 4% of his splitters/changeups with fastballs.

One glaring difference between the two can be found in their leverage splits. Here are Webb’s:

High: 48 PA, .100/.208/.175, 10 K
Med: 132 PA, .192/.244/.233, 22 K
Low: 75 PA, .264/.293/.347, 17 K

And Haren’s:

High: 31 PA, .308/.367/.462, 6 K
Med: 90 PA, .253/.303/.386, 18 K
Low: 105 PA, .168/.184/.248, 21 K

It seems Webb gets better as the importance level rises whereas Haren performs better as the importance level lessens. Give me Webb over Haren with one game to make or break a season, but give me Webb and Haren over other twosomes, at least right now, with two games on the line.

In the early parts of a season there is no such thing as middle ground… at least in the eyes of the media and most baseball analysts. Players off to scorching starts are publicized all over the place, just like their initial statistical opposites. I’m looking at you, Barry Zito. Though I have no problem with guys like Cliff Lee and Joe Saunders appearing everywhere there are numerous pitchers performing quite well that are overshadowed by these hot and cold starts.

These are not pitchers necessarily under- or over-achieving but rather those whose names do not make headlines, primarily because they are hogged by the likes of Lee and Saunders.

Looking at some statistics this morning I found six pitchers that fit this bill the best. Some (at least one) names might surprise you but here are The Unheralded Bunch:

Javier Vazquez: 4-3, 3.55 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 58.2 IP, 12 BB, 58 K
Always a personal favorite of mine, it’s good to see Javy kicking some statistical butt. His FIP suggests his ERA should be the second lowest in baseball right now. He has a 72% LOB rate, which is just about the league average; he has not been lucky or unlucky in stranding runners or letting them score. He has the 4th best K/BB, at 4.83, but he has already posted high strikeout to walk ratios. In fact, since 2000, his low came with the Yankees, at 2.50; otherwise, his K/BBs have always been very, very good. Adding fuel to the fire is his .347 BABIP which just about perfectly matches his .345 xBABIP. Vazquez is not doing this with smoke and mirrors and his statistics should become a bit more well-known as the year goes on.

Johan Santana: 5-2, 3.30 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 60 IP, 15 BB, 57 K
Nobody is saying Santana is bad, underperforming, or overperforming, but the fact of the matter is that he simply has not been in the news all that much this year. After becoming the prized possession this offseason it was safe to say Santana would be scrutinized by the media, forced to live up to the expectations just like all other New York acquisitions. That simply has not been the case. Santana has been good, not tremendous or outstanding, but it says a lot about a pitcher when we have come to expect a 3.30 ERA or less, with K/BB numbers of 57/15. The one chink in his armour is the 11 home runs allowed, which becomes a bit off when we realize he is allowing around seven percent less flyballs from a year ago. He has also left 85.6 percent of his runners on base. A big strikeout pitcher like him could theoretically sustain a high LOB%, but it is not very likely he will set the millennium high at 85.6.

Ryan Dempster: 5-2, 2.70 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 63.1 IP, 26 BB, 53 K
The starter-turned-closer-turned-starter has exceeded expectations in the early going, going from a sight Cubs fans did not want to see walking towards the mound in the ninth inning to one they welcome in the first inning. Dempster has allowed just 41 hits in 63.1 innings; that, combined with his decreased BB/9, have contributed to the fifth lowest WHIP in the senior circuit. His xBABIP of .286 greatly outdoes his current .228 clip, so it is not likely Dempster will sustain this performance all year long, but he has definitely been a big part of the Cubs early success.

Mark Hendrickson: 6-2, 3.72 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 58 IP, 20 BB, 31 K
Yes, I had to double-check this a few times, run tests through SPSS, and even cross-reference with NASA to ensure this was correct, but Hendrickson…is…pitching….well. He is allowing six percent less line drives from a year ago, which are split between his grounders and flyballs. Due to this decrease, his BABIP of .293 matches his xBABIP of .294, which is right near the .300 mark. The one red flag in his corner deals with his K/BB dropping from 3.17 to 1.55.

Chad Billingsley: 4-5, 3.76 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.41 FIP, 52.2 IP, 29 BB, 60 K
The swingman finally placed in the rotation has not disappointed the Dodger faithful this year. Tied for fourth in the NL with 60 strikeouts, Billingsley has allowed just 2 home runs. His LOB% of 71.8 is right around the league average and he has maintained his line drive rate from a year ago. Despite this, his grounders have increased while his flyballs have decreased. His K/9 and BB/9 are also way up; he is striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. If he can keep missing bats and keeping the decreased flyballs in the yard he could be a very effective pitcher all season long.

Joe Blanton: 2-6, 3.87 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 74.1 IP, 83 H, 16 BB, 34 K
Due to Greg Smith and Dana Eveland making headlines for contributing so early into the Dan Haren trade, Kentucky Joe does not get much love. As his numbers above indicate, he probably deserves some. There is not much to say about Blanton, statistically, other than how his LD/GB/FB, LOB%, and BABIP of current all seemingly match his career averages. He might not be worth Carlos Silva or Gil Meche money to a prospective team, but this As team will be in good shape if Blanton sustains his current performance and still manages to be just the third best pitcher on his team.

I can remember Gavin Floyd’s first start like it was yesterday. Never before had I been able to experience firsthand the sort of hype that surrounded him that night. The Phillies were in third place, playing the dreadful-at-the-time Mets, and had vastly underachieved all year long. When the hot prospect threw an absolutely ridiculous curveball to the befuddled Cliff Floyd, striking him out to end the first inning, it’s safe to say I was not alone in thinking this kid could be the answer.

Unfortunately, he was not the answer. Even though the Phillies went on a 20-8 run to close out the season, Floyd would frustrate fans with spurts of brilliance masked by the inability to harness his “stuff.” A change of scenery was deemed necessary and Floyd soon found himself a member of the Chicago White Sox.

In eight starts this year, Floyd is averaging a 56 Game Score, even coming close to throwing a no-no. His numbers:

8 GS, 4-2, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 49.1 IP, 33 H, 23 BB, 22 K

Okay, the walks and strikeouts clearly signal a red flag, but it has been very hard to hit Floyd in the early going. He has an opponents BABIP of just .193 which should also signal a red flag, especially considering his LD% would predict something in the .230 range. Oh, and his ridiculously low LD% requires us to buy a new set of flags since the 11.8% is a far cry from his 18.4% career rate.

His FIP of 5.07 results in the second highest discrepancy between FIP and ERA; only Fausto Carmona’s ERA has been luckier than Floyd’s. Instead of focusing on why he will not sustain this current level of performance, I would much rather look at what has contributed to these numbers.

His fastball usage has dipped from 72% in 2004 to 59% right now. He has increased his usage of sliders, mainly due to his development of the slider, and cut back on his curveball. The problem during Floyd’s Phillies tenure was that he could not locate his fastball; due to this, he would pitch behind hitters and not be able to utilize the curveball as much. Additionally, his changeup frequency has stayed stagnant. His velocities of these pitches have not shifted much since 2004 or even from last year to now.

Last week I wrote about Brett Myers and how odd it was that he had better numbers at home, in one of the top hitters parks in the league. The same can be said for Floyd:

Home: 3 GS, 21.2 IP, 7 H, 11 BB, 12 K, 2.08 ERA, .101/.220/.188, 16 OPS+
Road: 5 GS, 27.2 IP, 26 H, 12 BB, 10 K, 3.58 ERA, .252/.350/.456, 112 OPS+

Unlike Myers, whose road starts took place in notorious hitters parks, Floyd has experienced his fair share in pitchers parks this year.

It seems he has been successful due to his limited damage when runners get on base.

Nobody On: 126 PA, .180/.278/.252
Runners On: 77 PA, .213/.329/.525

Despite the increase in OPS with runners on he has also gotten help from five double play balls, and the fact of the matter is that I had to combine all of the baserunner states to even have something remotely close to a significant amount of PAs to analyze. In case the message was lost just now, Floyd has not allowed many runners to reach base and when they have he has done a good job keeping them there.

I don’t know if he’s found the right repertoire and frequency to help harness the “stuff” he clearly has but, for now, he definitely does not look as bad as he did in 2006.

It seems that a common course of action for pitchers trying to revive their careers is to sign with the Nationals. Jason Simontacchi tried it; as did Esteban Loaiza and Jerome Williams. The same can be said for Pedro Astacio. Odalis Perez hopped on this year; and Tim Redding is currently experiencing some success in his second year with the team.

In his 25 games with the Nationals since the middle of last season, Redding has the following numbers:

2007: 15 GS, 84 IP, 84 H, 38 BB, 47 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
2008: 10 GS, 57 IP, 44 H, 22 BB, 38 K, 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

His FIPs of 5.17 and 4.36, respectively, suggest his ERA should be higher based on controllable skills, but Redding has definitely produced well enough to at least draw some interest from teams other than the Nationals. Puzzling, too, is his domination so far of the Phillies. In five starts against them as a National, Redding’s numbers are:

vs. Phillies: 5 GS, 31 IP, 25 H, 6 ER, 10 BB, 21 K, 1.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

His FIP of around 3.57 still implies he has done quite well against one of the league’s best offenses. Is there anything different from a year ago that could be attributed to this increased relative success?

His BABIP has been lucky, coming in at .234 when it should be closer to .280, but Redding has kept this down for his entire career.

What about his BIP rates? Last year, his LD/GB/FB was 22.2/38.3/39.5; it is currently 16.0/46.3/37.7. He has replaced six percent of line drives and two percent of flyballs with grounders. Grounders that apparently have not found holes in the infield too often.

His selection and velocity is also quite interesting. Though not by leaps and bounds, his velocity has increased in all four of his pitches; his selection of them has also differed. His fastball usage is down three percent but velocity is up 1 mph; his slider usage is up ~6% and velocity is up ~1 mph; his curveball usage is down ~1% but his velocity is up 1.5 mph; and his changeup usage is down ~1.5% while velocity is up ~1.5 mph.

When put together, this selection and his location has helped him increase his K/9 and decrease his BB/9. Despite not lighting the world on fire with a high K/BB, his numbers are up from a year ago and are likely a major reason for his WHIP dip from 1.45 to 1.16.

He doesn’t strike many batters out, 5.68 K/9, and he walks 3.47 batters per nine innings, but teams should not automatically write off playing the Nationals, especially when Tim Redding is on the hill.