The Yankees are going to trade A.J. Burnett before the season starts. He isn’t necessary to their success moving forward and his spot in the rotation is better filled by Phil Hughes or Freddy Garcia. The Yankees can also reallocate whatever portion of Burnett’s salary gets absorbed by a trade partner to more pressing areas, such as designated hitter. While the Yankees aren’t typically cost-conscious in this fashion — we would expect them to just add salary on top of a player like Burnett — A.J. still has value and the move represents more than a straight salary dump.

While four teams are reportedly pushing for Burnett, the Pirates have emerged as the likeliest trade partner. They have some money to spend and prospects to trade and, after having their attempts rebuffed by Edwin Jackson, are itching to acquire a solid #2/#3 starter. Whether that description still fits Burnett is largely debatable, but this is a deal the Pirates should pursue.

Contextually, everything makes sense for both the Buccos and Burnett. He isn’t going to push them into contention, but he will help move the needle. Realistically, that’s all a team like the Pirates can hope for. Burnett would move to the easier league, and a much easier division overall, and can potentially re-establish his value. At 35 years old he isn’t going to sign another big contract when his current deal expires, but two solid years with the Pirates in which he serves as a mentor of sorts to the youngins could go a long way towards garnering him short-term offers when his remaining $33 million comes off the books.

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It shouldn’t have been difficult for Kenny Lofton to find work after the 2007 season. He hit .296/.367/.414, played decent defense and tallied right around 3 WAR. He stole 23 of 30 bases, posted his first walk rate at 10 percent or higher since 2002, and managed to play in 136 games despite being 40 years old. His batting line was almost identical a year earlier with the Dodgers, and he posted 4 WAR a season before that with the Phillies. Age wasn’t slowing Lofton down, but as with any player that age, his performance could crater at any moment.

For that reason, teams were hesitant to offer Lofton a lucrative major league contract, if even for just one season. Though he was still potentially a very productive player, none of his offers made sense and he chose to retire. The Rays were interested but nothing materialized, and Lofton walked away after two seasons in which he averaged a .299/.364/.408 slash line, a .347 wOBA, 27 stolen bases and 2.2 WAR.

His forced retirement was indicative of a changing game. Players were being viewed under a different lens, and to most, guaranteeing a 40-year old a major league roster spot was too risky. Whether teams were off-base with that assessment of Lofton is certainly debatable, but it signified the end of a trend.

Older players couldn’t simply use their name power to get a guaranteed gig, and the teams that might have expressed interest are those the players likely wouldn’t consider to begin with. The choices left on the table were retirement or to accept a minor league deal and vie for a spot in spring training. At least four veterans, two of whom are going to the Hall of Fame, fit similar bills this offseason. Skills and remaining talent vary across the quintet, but they represent the type of player who would have been signed to a contract at this point no fewer than five or six years ago. Will any of Johnny Damon, Derrek Lee, Ivan Rodriguez, or Vladimir Guerrero latch on somewhere this year?

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The Phillies signed reliever Chad Qualls to a one year deal worth $1.15 million on Tuesday. The move is likely their last of the offseason as the major league roster is close to filled and the team is right up against the luxury tax threshold. While one year deals almost always benefit the team, and while $1.15 million isn’t exactly a king’s ransom, the deal doesn’t make much sense for the Phillies, who have a number of relief pitching prospects knocking on the door.

For a team that reportedly does not want to pay any luxury tax, signing Qualls for three times what one of Michael Schwimer, Justin De Fratus or Phillippe Aumont would make is an odd course of action.

Every half-a-million dollars is of material significance to the Phillies at this juncture, and the potential trade-offs here are the stunted development of prospects and reduced payroll flexibility down the road to bolster the roster if the need arises.

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Decent shortstops are hard to come by, but the Red Sox have now traded away two potential starters this offseason. After trading Jed Lowrie to the Astros for Mark Melancon, Ben Cherington and Company completed a deal this weekend to send Marco Scutaro to the Rockies for Clayton Mortensen and $6 million in salary relief. In each case the Red Sox dealt from depth to solidify perceived weaknesses. Melancon improves the Papelbon-less bullpen, and the $6 million previously due to Scutaro can now be reallocated to the starting rotation.

Given the issues the Red Sox faced with their rotation last year, the newly available money can go a long way towards signing Roy Oswalt or acquiring Wandy Rodriguez. Last season, the Red Sox offense and bullpen were statistical bests in the American League, but the overall rotation struggled in both the performance and health departments. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett pitched well, but Clay Buchholz couldn’t stay on the mound, and the rest of the rotation was a mess. All told, the Red Sox rotation posted the highest walk rate in the league and finished in the bottom third in ERA, FIP and SIERA.

Without much money available to improve the starting staff, the Sox turned to both Aaron Cook and Vicente Padilla on minor league deals, hoping to recreate the Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia magic the Yankees experienced. Now, the Red Sox have the capability of acquiring someone who can offer a greater level of assurance in improving the rotation. But it doesn’t come without a cost, as the Sox are now forced to use a platoon of Nick Punto and Mike Aviles at the most important position in the infield.

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Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over a mess of a roster, one good enough not to completely embarrass, but bad enough to show no signs of improving. Thus, their seeming first order of business is to rebuild. The term rebuilding is consistently misapplied, as the common perception is that teams in such situations must deal away all valuable pieces at once in order to stockpile prospects. While shedding payroll and converting costly players that don’t truly benefit the team right now into stars of the future is certainly a part of rebuilding, it isn’t everything. Another frequent tactic is creating the perception of starting anew by unloading costly players signed by the previous regime.

The Cubs are certainly implementing the latter tactic by attempting to move Alfonso Soriano. According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts is willing to eat most of the remaining $54 million on Soriano’s contract to facilitate a move. The writing is on the wall: Soriano’s days in a Cubs uniform are numbered, and it’s simply a matter of time before numerous teams come calling for an inexpensive outfielder with a decent bat and underrated fielding skills they can deploy in a left field platoon.

At $18 million per season, and in a full-time starting role, Soriano has negative value — his salary outweighs what his production typically costs on the market. But at $2-3 million per year, and in a role that limits his playing time, keeps him healthy, and allows him to face predominantly lefties, a league average year isn’t out of the cards. Though Soriano is a sunk cost, it makes more sense for a rebuilding team to eke out some prospects, after selling suitors on these factors, than to keep him around and platoon him themselves.

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The Red Sox entered the 2011 season with high hopes of winning their third championship of the millennium. Best laid plans didn’t come to fruition as the events of that wild and wacky final day of the regular season kept them out of the playoffs entirely.

Their offense wasn’t to blame, as the Red Sox posted a league-leading .351 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Their bullpen led the junior circuit in WAR and FIP as well, while throwing 517.1 innings. That innings total was the second-highest in the league, indicative of their major problem area: the rotation.

While the Red Sox starting rotation wasn’t atrocious, it certainly didn’t live up to expectations. It posted the highest walk rate in the American League, and finished in the bottom third in all of ERA, FIP and SIERA. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester pitched well, as did Clay Buchholz over his 14 starts. Everyone else left much to be desired.

After seeing the Yankees eek solid seasons out of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, the Red Sox seem to be adopting a similar approach for the 2012 season. Instead of looking for major splashes, or even above average reinforcements like Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt, the Red Sox have signed Aaron Cook, and are currently engaged in talks with Vicente Padilla. Cook makes some sense, in spite of his recent struggles to stay on the mound, because he offers one of the best groundball rates in baseball when healthy, and averaged close to 4 WAR from 2006-08.

Padilla is another story, as he carries various forms of risk and has never really offered much reward. Minor league deals are almost never detrimental to the signing team, but expectations should be significantly tempered for Padilla, even if he somehow manages to stay healthy.

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The Texas Rangers took an interesting approach at the 2011 trade deadline. Instead of seeking big-time impact talent in the lineup or rotation, they sought to shore up the bullpen. Jon Daniels worked out deals with the Orioles for Mike Gonzalez and Koji Uehara, and when it seemed like Heath Bell was headed to Texas, it turned out the Rangers’ bid was awarded the prized Mike Adams. Gonzalez was set to hit the free agent market after the season, while both Uehara and Adams were under control for the 2012 season as well.

The impact of the newly acquired bullpen trio was tougher to measure statistically — which is the case for most relievers, especially over minute samples — but the bullpen was certainly improved. In the end, however, best laid plans didn’t come to fruition and Uehara was left off of the World Series roster. The Rangers even fielded calls pertaining to his availability this offseason. This, despite a fluky high home run rate that spat in the face of his 23 strikeouts and one walk over 22 innings after the trade. Regardless, all available evidence suggests that Uehara remains a relief stud, and over a full season has a better chance to make his impact felt.

And in spite of his “struggles” the Rangers still intended to further shore up the bullpen this offseason, signing Joe Nathan, seriously pursuing Andrew Bailey and considering both Gonzalez and Ryan Madson. Their activity suggests that they want to reduce the risk of bullpen attrition by employing numerous top-notch relievers, especially at the back end. This invites the multi-million dollar question: should they sign Ryan Madson given their circumstances?

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The Padres acquired Carlos Quentin over the weekend by sending prospects Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez to the can-anyone-tell-if-they-are-actually-rebuilding White Sox. At first glance, the move doesn’t make much sense for the Padres. Quentin’s attributes may not translate to the spacious PETCO Park and he is about to enter his final year under team control. Further, the Padres aren’t really in a position to contend in 2012, where a slugging corner outfielder could be the difference in a tight race.

Even if they were, this deal is worth scrutinizing because Quentin is a tough player to peg. He can hit, but plays the field about as bad as a corner outfielder can. His home run totals can partly thank the friendly dimensions of US Cellular Field — fifth-highest park factor for homers in 2011 — whereas dingers are suppressed in his new digs. And given his contractual status, the Padres aren’t even going to get a great deal out of this, as Quentin will likely cost around $8 million before being able to file for free agency.

However, trades like this are always interesting to discuss because they shed light on an element of transaction theory. Mainly, they elicit questions about why a team in the Padres situation would even bother acquiring Quentin. Before delving into their mindset, though, let’s take a closer look at Quentin himself.

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The acquisition of Gio Gonzalez certainly bolstered the Nationals starting rotation and bumped up their postseason odds. It wasn’t a splash of the Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder ilk but with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, Gonzalez will help form a fairly formidable trio. However, the Nationals aren’t finished just yet.

In addition to their rumored interest and pursuit of Prince Fielder to replace Adam LaRoche at first base, the Nationals are also in the hunt for a centerfielder. Last season, they expressed interest in both Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton. The former was eventually traded to the division-rival Braves, while the latter posted a .449 wOBA in September as the Rays won the Wild Card on the season’s final day.

But the Nationals are still looking to shore up their outfield. Center field remains a legitimate weakness on a team with sights on significantly improving and potentially contending for a playoff berth. As it currently stands, there are four realistic options: trade for Marlon Byrd, trade for B.J. Upton, sign Coco Crisp, or shift Jayson Werth over while installing someone else in right field.

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Ryan Madson has had a successful career spent entirely with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies signing of Jonathan Papelbon early in the offseason effectively ended that chapter of Madson’s career, but he entered the offseason as either the best or second-best available closer.

Madson was going to get paid, and it was just a matter of which team would see past his “inexperience” at the position and opt for his services over, say, Heath Bell or Francisco Cordero.

Unfortunately, best laid plans haven’t come to fruition, and it seems with each passing day that he will end up being the loser of the offseason: a very good player forced to sign for less than he would have had he hit free agency a year earlier or later.

Because so few remaining teams have both the need and payroll flexibility to give a multi-year deal to a closer, it’s looking like Madson’s first foray into free agency will result in his eventual employer getting a bargain.

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