It’s long been a sabermetric truism that for hitters, strikeouts aren’t any worse than any other out — or at least, that strikeouts are much less harmful than is typically assumed. Strikeouts are slightly worse than outs on balls in play, since sometimes in play outs can advance or score a runner. But the difference between the two is minuscule, while fans tend to lampoon high strikeout hitters and overestimate the negative effects of strikeouts.

So the sabermetric truism has stuck: strikeouts aren’t that bad. Hitters can have high strikeout rates and still contribute loads of offensive value through their plate discipline. After all, the end goal is not making an out, right? It shouldn’t matter how a player does it, simply as long as they reach base at a high rate and avoid making outs.

But there’s a problem with this logic. While a player can be valuable even he strikes out frequently, strikeouts still decrease how often a player reaches base and can have an adverse effect on a player’s on-base percentage. They’re not as harmless as casual saberists typically assume.

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I came across this blurb a couple days ago over at HardBall Talk (originally from ESPN Boston):

“David [Ortiz] is (too) proud and respectful to say how he feels in public, but the guy feels hurt, upset by the way that he is being ignored by the Red Sox,” said the unnamed source. “After all he’s done here and having a good season, he was at least hoping to be approached by the team to talk about his future.”

On one hand, David Ortiz has a point. He’s in the midst of his best season since 2007 — his .390 wOBA is impressive — and as one of the most-loved players on the Red Sox, it would seem like a common courtesy that the team would reach out to him about a new contract. If you can help it, you certainly don’t want to annoy one of your star players during the stretch run.

But as weird as it may sound, I think the Red Sox are actually doing Ortiz a favor. He might not realize it now, but if the Sox had reached out to him, he might not have liked what he heard. I’m certain Ortiz will end up back in Boston, but much like Jeter’s situation this past offseason, things could get messy before the end.

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Edwin Jackson is a pitcher everyone wants to acquire, but then seemingly can’t wait to unload as soon as possible.

Or at least, that’s the impression you get from looking at his trade history. Jackson has been traded six times over the course of his career, with five of those trades happening within the last three years. He’s been traded for exciting prospects, not exciting prospects, an enigmatic center fielder, a powerful outfielder with platoon issues, and a multitude of relief pitchers. He’s 27-years-old and has yet to become a free agent, but he’s already been on seven different teams in his career. For comparison, Ricky Henderson — the prototypical man-of-many-hats — only played on nine different teams over the course of his entire career.

As Jackson was at the heart of the recent Colby Rasmus trade, I wanted to take another look at all the place he’s been. So without further ado, I present to you my pitiful, Paint-tastic attempt to visualize Edwin Jackson’s full trade history (click to enlarge):

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I love trades, transactions, and rumors. Love ’em. While the actual game of baseball is pretty cool too — you know, I’ll watch it on occasion — there’s something endlessly fascinating about discussing roster moves. The flurry of action around the trade deadline makes it one of my favorite times of the season, and it’s one of the few things fans of rebuilding teams have to look forward to each year.

There’s just something so addicting about the deadline. Following the trade deadline on Twitter is like watching the climax of a giant, twisting, real-life soap opera unfold 140 characters at a time. Rumors are buzzing everywhere, emotions are running high, analysts are making over-the-top assessments, and debates are flying nearly as fast as the rumors. It’s an adrenaline rush that doesn’t require an HDTV or special effects, just a knowledge of the narratives surrounding this year’s season. It’s the ultimate story — a real-time novel with 30 authors and millions of attentive readers.

But one of the key reasons I love this time of the year is because it stimulates so much good analysis and debate. Each trade can be debated on the merits of the return for both sides — something saberists love to do — but there are also underlying philosophical debates about proper team building and strategy. How close is close enough to justify making a run at the playoffs?  Should this team be looking to sell or buy? What should be this organization’s long-term plan? Are they working toward it? Sometimes the answer to these questions are easy; other times they can be the cause of all sorts of debate.

The Ubaldo Jimenez trade is a great example. I have conflicting emotions on this trade: while I like the total package the Rockies got back in return, I really dislike the trade from a philosophical point of view.

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It’s Friday, two days before the trade deadline, and I officially have rumor-induced ADHD. I keep catching myself peeking at my Twitter feed ever couple minutes, and I don’t think I’ve closed my MLB Trade Rumors tab in four days. Sunday needs to come and go already so I can go back to having a life.

As I can barely focus on anything for more than 15 minutes, I figured I’d write up some of my assorted musings on the big rumors floating around out there. Original idea, huh?

The Ubaldo Jimenez Rumors

I don’t get it. If I was the Rockies, there’s no way in heck that I’d trade Jimenez. I can understand the logic behind shopping him, considering they have lots of holes on their roster for 2012 and no surefire prospects ready to fill them, but the Rockies had better be sure they’re getting back an absurd haul for him. How often do 5-6 WAR pitchers come along, nonetheless ones that are signed for only $18 million over the next three years? Pitchers like Jimenez are rare commodities, and no matter how good a prospect is, they’re still only a prospect.

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We’ve had our five part series introducing everyone to FanGraphs’ newest stat, SIERA. Now, how about we simplify things and explain SIERA in 500 words?

The following is taken from the new FanGraphs Library page on SIERA, so it will always be available here whenever needed.

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While the barriers between traditional and advanced baseball analysis are falling every day — hearing David Cone cite FanGraphs during a Yankees-Rays broadcast this week was awesome — there are still certain players who are a wedge between non-saberists and saberists. It’s always the same pattern: one side thinks Player X is awesome, the other doesn’t. Flame wars ensue. Each side cites statistics to back up their position, then declares that the other side’s statistics are worthless.

Ryan Howard is one of those players. Traditionalists love him because he posts huge home run and RBI totals; saberists say he’s overvalued because of those same stats. And so the fight continues — wOBA vs. HRs, WAR vs. RBIs. In the end, the debate isn’t about Howard at all — it’s about which stats you want to believe.

I noticed one of these pro-Howard, anti-WAR columns the other day and it made me curious: Can I explain why Ryan Howard’s 2011 season is overrated without using sabermetric statistics? Can I point out that his contract overpays him without using information that would turn off a casual baseball fan? As it turns out, it’s pretty easy to do — though it’s worth noting that saberists might be dismissing Howard’s RBI “skills” too quickly.

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…even if they want to.

Does anyone recognize this player?

Centerfielder.
Former top prospect, ranked as one of the top 5 in baseball at one time.
Great plate discipline (11% walk rate), but strikes out at a high rate (20+%).
Batting average hovers around .250.
Above-average power, posting around a .160 to .180 ISO.
Called out in the past for “attitude” issues.

Oh, you were thinking of Colby Rasmus? Sorry, I was describing B.J. Upton.

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Late last night, news broke that the Mets had traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers (along with $5 million to help off-set his contract) for two players to be named later. My immediate reaction to hearing the news was twofold: what a no-brainer trade for the Mets, and not a half-bad for the Brewers either.

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With the All-Star Game coming up tomorrow — and with my already-exposed love of flipping leaderboards on their head — I figure it’s about time I put together an anti-all-star team. Baseball coverage is dominated this week by talk about the best players in the game, so why not spend some time looking at which players have been the worst in the majors this season?

There are many different ways to choose who’s been “the worst” player at each position — just like there are multiple ways of choosing the best player — but for the sake of simplicity, I used Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to compile this list. I didn’t simply choose the player with the lowest WAR at a position, though; I gave preference to players that had more playing time, and I chose to put less weight on defensive performance. I try to explain any slightly odd selections that I made, but feel free to make arguments for different players in the comments.

Without further ado, here are your 2011 starting American and National League All-Flub teams:

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