Just because you are optimistic overall doesn’t mean you are doing anything good or bad.

It may reduce the absolute error by guessing the median higher than the mean. For example, what’s the better guess:

Guess1	Guess2	Actual
490	575	700
490	575	675
490	575	650
490	575	625
490	575	600
490	575	550
490	575	500
490	575	400
490	575	200
490	575	0

Guess1 represents the actual average, while Guess2 represents the median.

Here is the absolute error for each pick:

Guess1	Guess2	Actual	Error1	Error2
490	575	700	210	125
490	575	675	185	100
490	575	650	160	75
490	575	625	135	50
490	575	600	110	25
490	575	550	60	25
490	575	500	10	75
490	575	400	90	175
490	575	200	290	375
490	575	0	490	575

The average of Error1 is 174 and the average of Error2 is 160. So, guessing higher reduces the overall average error.

Guess1 totaled 4900 PA while Guess2 totaled 5750 PA. The actual PA was 4900. So, in this particular illustration, if it represents anything resembling reality, fans are justified in guessing PA 10% above what the group total would suggest.

Basically, fans are not only justified but are probably correct: they are not guessing on random events; they are not guessing randomness by distributing things evenly to everyone.

Indeed, in this particular illustration, the Fans could have set the forecast at anything between 550 and 600, and the average error would remain at the (minimum) of 160.

So, it is NOT a requirement that things actually add up at the league or team level. Indeed, being optimistic may very well be the right thing to do.

At the same time, you now have to be careful in trying to take things out of context. You can’t add up all the team’s forecasted WAR or forecasted HR and think that’s what is the best forecast at the team level. If we add up all the individual forecasted WAR, we’re going to get a total like 1500, when in reality, it’s going to come in at 1000. Just be careful in taking things out of context.

I looked at all pitcher forecasts with at least 8 fan votes. There are 329 pitchers, which is 11 per team.

The total wins-losses is 2410-2036. Seeing that there are 2430 wins and losses available, Fans pretty much nailed the wins column. But, there are many losses unaccounted for. The win% comes in at .542, which is 7 losses too few per 162 games. (This is a similar story as with the position players.)

The average ERA is 3.98, which is pretty optimistic compared to the 4.3 that is the norm. Total runs per 9 IP is 4.28, which is 10% too low.

Total IP is 39310, which works out to 146 9-inning games. IP estimates are actually low by 10%.

Total WAR is 570, which is a similar story to the position players: multiply by 75% in order to get the number to make sense.

Fangraphs shows 220 non-pitchers with Fan forecasts. The total WAR of those players forecasted is 685 wins. With my personal forecasts, I have those exact players at 496 wins.

Seeing that all non-pitchers in 2009 came in at just under 600 wins, and seeing that there were nearly 700 non-pitchers in 2009 (meaning that there are plenty of players still left to be forecasted), my personal forecast probably serves as a reasonable baseline.

On that basis, Fans are expecting 38% more marginal wins than will be generated. That works out so that the average team wins about 94 games.

Hope truly springs eternal, as everyone thinks they are a playoff contender. Not to worry though. At some point, the Fan forecasts will be recalibrated to knock out the optimism, so that the total WAR (nonpitchers + pitchers) will come in around 1000.

… the most outstanding players on the ballot are (with BaseballProjection.com WAR in parens):
16-20. Burks (48), Da Parker (38), Lankford (38), Le Smith (30), Galarraga (27)
13-15. Mattingly (40), Ja Morris (39), Baines (37)
12. Ventura (55)
11. Appier (50)
10. Da Murphy (44)
9. McGriff (51)
8. Dawson (57)
7. Trammell (67)
6. McGwire (63)
5. Edgar (67)
4. Larkin (69)
3. Raines (65)
2. Alomar (64)
1. Blyleven (90)

Interestingly, I would bet that a small minority were aware of the BProj numbers, and yet, those numbers reflect the perceptions of the fans pretty well. The eight most outstanding players according to the fans is identical to the eight players with the most WAR.

Thanks to all for participating!

It’s the final two: this means you are choosing the MORE outstanding player. MORE. Got that? MORE.

Balloting now closed.

Who was the MORE outstanding player?

Alomar, Roberto   44.8%
Blyleven, Bert    55.2%

Total votes: 563

Knocked out:
Ventura
Appier
Da Murphy
McGriff
Dawson
Trammell
McGwire
Edgar
Larkin
Raines

This is the Seventh annual report, where you the fans get to evaluate the fielding traits of your favorite players. Take a few minutes, and help me out.

Help me -> help everyone -> help you.

http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/

There are alot of questions in various threads in the forums and in the blog entries over the past few months as to what all these stats mean, especially those in which I’ve played a role. And David has a great series of “getting to know”, and he posts references, etc.

The intent of this thread is for me to capture all those questions, and provide a more complete and nuanced set of responses.

In this thread, no question is too simple or too complex. The question itself doesn’t even have to make sense. The only criteria to posting here is that you are confused.

Think of me as “Dear Abby”.

Fire away, and I’ll answer as I can…

Update: Just to let you know I have more answers starting here. You can make more comments in this thread.