Back-to-Back Home Runs Spur Cubs’ Game 1 Win

by
September 30, 2025
David Banks-Imagn Images

Wrigley Field and its patrons are accustomed to day baseball, as the club still honors its once electricity-free history by playing Friday home games in the afternoon rather than at night. And so despite having not hosted playoff baseball since 2020 (and a playoff win since 2017), the scene on Wild Card Tuesday, a day that saw Chicago bathed in gorgeously clear fall light while still enjoying lovely late-summer temperatures, was a familiar one, as the Cubs dispatched the visiting Padres 3-1 in a brisk Game 1. The afternoon’s action was headlined by back-to-back home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly, as well as the perfect 4 2/3 innings worked by the Chicago bullpen.

Much like ABC’s broadcast, both offenses struggled to make sustained noise (was anyone else’s volume constantly fluctuating?) in this game. The teams combined for just 10 total hits, and the Cubs didn’t have a single hit with a runner in scoring position all afternoon. Under the hood, it was the Padres who made more frequent, high-quality contact, even though they managed just four hits. San Diego was responsible for 14 of the game’s 21 hard-hit (95 mph or more off the bat) balls in play, many of which were struck right at Cubs defenders.

San Diego jumped out to a slim early lead with back-to-back doubles in the second inning. Jackson Merrill squared up a pitch around his hands, and then was driven in when Xander Bogaerts, who just over a week ago was still in Arizona rehabbing from a foot fracture, crushed a piped Matthew Boyd fastball into the left-center field gap. The Cubs erred in their haste to try and cut Bogaerts down at second base, with Nico Hoerner mishandling a Pete Crow-Armstrong throw that allowed Bogaerts to advance to third. Though the next three Padres hitters all put the ball in play, they did so directly at Cubs. The first of these looked like their best chance to add on, but with the infield drawn in on the grass, Dansby Swanson skillfully handled a hotshot grounder off the bat of Ryan O’Hearn and held Bogaerts at third:

That wasn’t the only time Swanson’s defense impacted a key moment. It looked like the Padres were set up to manufacture another run in the fourth inning after a Manny Machado walk, a Merrill sac bunt (more on that in a moment), and a Bogaerts infield single led to a second favorable RBI opportunity for O’Hearn. Boyd jammed O’Hearn with a fastball around his hands, but he was able to get enough of it to poke a soft fly ball into shallow center field. Off the bat it looked like it had a chance to fall in, but Swanson gave chase and made a tough, leaping play behind his head:

Both Swanson snags turned out to be significant, as the two runs prevented by each difficult play (to say nothing of whatever rally might have come after) proved to be the difference in the game.

The Merrill sac bunt after the Machado leadoff walk in the fourth was curious, considering both the game state (it tends to be correct to play for multiple runs early in the game rather than give up an out to play for just one) and that Merrill had doubled off of Boyd in his previous at-bat. After the game, Padres manager Mike Shildt responded to a question about the bunt, saying, “Jackson was on his own there, seeing the game, getting it over.”

The Padres led the league in sacrifice bunts during the regular season; it’s more a part of Shildt’s style than is typical in the modern game, and probably more than is advisable both in an analytical vacuum and for a lineup as deep as San Diego’s. It’s possible Merrill was trying to take advantage of how deep Matt Shaw was playing at third base, that he was bunting for a hit rather than an explicit sacrifice, but it didn’t work out. That stands out as the only potentially detrimental decision made in an otherwise cleanly-played baseball game.

Padres starter Nick Pivetta ripped fastballs past Cubs hitters throughout the first four innings of this game. He needed just 50 pitches to get his first 12 outs, and at one point retired 11 consecutive Cubs. A whopping 73% of his pitches were fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers, combined), which the Cubs couldn’t touch early on. In the fifth, however, the Cubs were sitting on Pivetta’s heater. Suzuki and Kelly swung at six of the seven fastballs they saw (and ignored Pivetta’s other pitches), and torched two of them, clubbing back-to-back solo home runs to kick off the fifth inning:

That ball left Suzuki’s bat at 112 mph and traveled an estimated 424 feet. Statcast didn’t capture the exit velo of Kelly’s homer, which came against a 95-mph fastball at his belt. Kelly, whose parents are Chicago natives and who grew up a Cubs fan in Oregon, hit just .225 and slugged .304 against fastballs thrown 95 mph or more this season, and had just four extra-base hits against them:

The Cubs’ lead was never really threatened after that. The Padres’ all-world bullpen coughed up an eighth inning insurance run on a rally sparked by a Swanson leadoff single. A bunt, a wild pitch, and a Hoerner sacrifice fly eventually plated Swanson for the Cubs’ third and final run.

While they did cede some hard contact, the Cubs bullpen had a great line at the end of this one, working 4 2/3 perfect innings in relief of Boyd, who was removed proactively in the fifth before he had thrown 60 total pitches. Young fireballer Daniel Palencia worked 1 2/3 innings against the top of San Diego’s order, needing just 17 pitches to retire five and likely leaving him available for Game 2 should Craig Counsell need him in another key spot. Palencia was followed by a clean inning each from Drew Pomeranz, Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller. Combined, Cubs relievers threw 41 of their 55 pitches for strikes and ended the game quickly enough for the Wrigley faithful to find a nearby barstool and order an Old Style before the Yankees and Red Sox game began:

While four members of the Padres’ bullpen hydra (Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller, Jeremiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta) were used in this one, none of them threw more than 13 pitches, leaving the entire group relatively fresh for tomorrow’s tilt. The Cubs announced that Kittredge will serve as the game’s opener. Japanese southpaw Shota Imanaga, who last started on Thursday, would be working on five days rest were he to follow Kittredge. He was bombed in his final regular season start and has given up at least three earned runs in his last six outings. He’ll be opposed by Dylan Cease, who leads the majors in strikeouts since 2020.





 

Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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