Garrett Crochet Makes Good on ‘Arrogant’ Prediction as Red Sox Take Game 1 From Yankees

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

NEW YORK – One day before taking the mound at Yankee Stadium for the most important game of his life, Garrett Crochet sat in the visitor’s dugout with Alex Cora. A few members of the front office were out in the bullpen, and Cora told his ace that it’d be fun to give them a call.

“Tomorrow you are going to make one call to the bullpen,” Crochet said. “Maybe two,” the manager responded.

But the 26-year-old lefty was adamant. One pitching change, with Aroldis Chapman closing things out, was all it would take for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees in Game 1 of the best-of-three AL Wild Card Series.

So, naturally, that’s exactly what happened. Crochet dominated the best offense in baseball across 7 2/3 innings. He allowed one run, four hits, no walks, and struck out 11 before he was finally pulled after 117 pitches, the most he’d ever thrown in the majors. Cora called on Chapman, who secured a four-out save and a 3-1 Boston win.

So what was behind that prediction? “Just being arrogant, to be honest,” Crochet said. “I didn’t actually expect that to be the case.”

Maybe it would’ve been too much for him to think that’s how it all would play out, but such an outing is exactly what the Red Sox were hoping for last December, when they traded four prospects to get Crochet from the White Sox, and then signed him to a six-year, $170 million extension that begins next season. At first, though, it looked like things would get away from him.

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Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge led off the bottom of the first inning with back-to-back singles before Crochet struck out Cody Bellinger on four pitches and then got Giancarlo Stanton to ground into an inning-ending double play. After two quick outs in the second inning, he left a 1-2 sinker up and out over the plate to Anthony Volpe, who smacked it over the wall in right field to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead. That made it three hits and seven batters faced. It looked like his confidence from the day before might’ve been a bit premature. Then he retired the next 17 batters that he faced.

Meanwhile, the Yankees had their own prized southpaw on the mound, and he was also dealing. Max Fried, who signed an eight-year, $218 million deal with the Yankees shortly before the Red Sox traded for Crochet, was flummoxing the Boston batters with a heavy dose of curveballs and changeups, and keeping them off his junk with a combination of cutters and four-seamers.

The two lefty starters offered an exhibit in contrast. Fried is lanky, and he stoops slightly as he stands on the rubber; his motions are narrow and under control. Crochet’s windup is jerky and violent. He spreads his broad shoulders wide and whips them around his torso as he straightens his oak-like right leg and kicks it out to the side as if he were performing at Radio City Music Hall. Whereas Fried was all about precision, Crochet overpowered the Yankees with the upper-90s velocity of his four-seamer and sinker, and induced some ugly swings from right-handed hitters on devastating low-and-inside cutters and sweepers.

And while Crochet’s trouble came quickly and then disappeared, Fried cruised through the first few innings and then pitched into and out of trouble for the rest of the night.

He walked Carlos Narváez with two outs in the fourth inning on a borderline pitch up and away. Nate Eaton then flubbed a 2-2 fastball over Goldschmidt’s head into shallow right field for a double. Judge raced over, picked up the ball against the wall in foul territory, and got it back in quick enough to hold Narváez at third. Fried fell behind Jarren Duran 3-0, got two called strikes with cutters, and then, with Narváez leading nearly halfway down the third base line, delivered a high sweeper. Duran swung and missed for strike three.

In the fifth, Fried once again issued a two-out walk, this time to Rob Refsnyder. He got ahead of Trevor Story, 0-2, the second strike a majestic curve. Fried went back to the curve again, this time low and away; Story fished it out and grounded it into the six hole. Volpe ranged to his right and backhanded it, but had no play. That brought up Alex Bregman, playing in his 100th career postseason game. He grounded out to third base for the final out.

In the sixth inning, Narváez went down 0-2, then took a slider in the dirt and spit on a curveball just off the plate away to even the count. He fouled off a high cutter before Fried went back to the curve. It was a beautiful swoosh that clipped the high-outside corner, except umpire Junior Valentine called it a ball. Narváez continued to fight, fouling off a sinker and a four-seamer, and Fried’s pitch count continued to climb. The ninth pitch of the plate appearance was a cutter that stayed away for ball four.

Now at 93 pitches, Fried threw a first-pitch strike to Eaton and then three straight balls, the first of them prompting manager Aaron Boone to get Luke Weaver up in the bullpen. The dilemma for Boone here was that Duran, the only lefty in the Boston lineup, was due up next. He needed Fried to get through Duran before going to the right-handed Weaver.

Eaton fouled off a 3-1 cutter on the outside corner. Fried then challenged him with a cutter down the middle; Eaton served it to second baseman Amed Rosario, who stepped on the bag and fired to first for the double play.

In the dugout after the inning, Boone told Fried that he would have one more batter, the lefty Duran, who grounded out to first to begin the seventh. At 102 pitches, Fried’s night was done, though he said after the game he felt like he could have kept going.

Because of what happened next, a lot is going to be made of Boone’s decision to pull Fried after 6 1/3 scoreless innings with the bases empty, the bottom of the order due up, and the Yankees leading by a run. But it was understandable. Unlike Crochet, who was getting better as the night wore on, Fried had labored through the middle innings and was showing signs of fatigue. His command was slipping, and hitters were fouling off some pitches that they’d swung through earlier in the game. Even if Boone had stuck with Fried, he wasn’t going to last much longer. At some point, the Yankees would have to turn to their suspect bullpen.

No, the bigger problem was Boone’s decision to bring in Weaver, specifically, when he did. The righty-hitting Ceddanne Rafaela was much better against right-handed pitchers this season than lefties, and Weaver was a reverse-splits guy too. The Red Sox center fielder was also 2-for-6 with two home runs in his career against Weaver. Small sample size, sure, but it wasn’t an ideal matchup.

Weaver jumped ahead in the count, 0-2, before Rafaela hunkered down. He fouled off one pitch after another while taking the occasional ball, until he finally walked on the 11th pitch of the plate appearance. Next up was Nick Sogard, the pesky second baseman and no. 9 hitter. He sent a 1-1 changeup into shallow right center and stretched it into a double, taking advantage of Judge’s compromised throwing arm due to an elbow injury that sent him to the injured list and limited him to DH-only duty for part of the summer. Sogard’s hustle gave the Red Sox two runners in scoring position for pinch-hitter Masataka Yoshida, who laced the first pitch he saw into center field for a go-ahead two-run single. Fernando Cruz relieved Weaver and escaped the jam, and then Devin Williams took care of the eighth.

“Gets ahead 0-2 with Rafaela there and lost the strike zone,” Boone said of Weaver. “Placed a couple hits on him where, you know, maybe just a little up with a couple of the pitches more than he wanted. But, you know, getting ahead 0-2 to Rafaela and losing him, that’s the one that stinks a little bit.”

After having thrown 100 pitches through seven innings, Crochet emerged from the dugout and climbed the mound to pitch the eighth. He struck out Trent Grisham swinging, and then Volpe stepped in and singled to end Crochet’s string of 17 straight outs. Cora made that phone call to the bullpen to get Chapman and Garrett Whitlock warm as Crochet faced the next batter, Austin Wells. As Volpe danced off first, Crochet fired a 2-2 heater toward Wells’ head that knocked the catcher off the plate. Narváez called time and jogged to the mound to calm Crochet down. When play resumed, he reared back and unleashed his hardest pitch of the night, a 100.2-mph heater to freeze Wells for strike three. Chapman came in and, after balking Volpe to second because he made three pickoff attempts, got José Caballero to fly out.

Story singled off David Bednar with two outs in the ninth and stole second before Bregman doubled him home. That insurance run proved to be crucial because the Yankees led off the bottom of the ninth with three straight singles — Goldschmidt, Judge, and Bellinger — to load the bases with nobody out. If it had still been a one-run game, Boone could have pinch-run for Goldschmidt, who represented the tying run at third, with Jasson Domínguez. And then, after Stanton struck out, Domínguez might’ve tagged up and scored when Jazz Chisholm Jr. lifted a fly ball to right field. Instead, Goldschmidt stayed put, not wanting to risk making the final out at the plate. It was Grisham who made the last out, a strikeout — his fourth of the game.

In the short history of the best-of-three Wild Card Series, no team has advanced after losing the first game. When asked about that after the game, Boone said, “We are going to show up tomorrow, and I expect us to do pretty well.” The Yankees hope he’s as good at making predictions as Crochet turned out to be.





Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.

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KeithMember since 2024
9 months ago

As a Red Sox fan, there a few quotes better then “Yankees on brink of elimination”
However I’m a realistic fan and I doubt NY will only score once tomorrow. Boston is going to need to plate at least 5 to win the next one.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  Keith

How about “the Yankees have been eliminated”?

FrancoeursteinMember since 2025
9 months ago

Incredible baserunning by Sogard to earn a hustle double. Incredibly fun game to watch in an electric atmosphere.

FrancoeursteinMember since 2025
9 months ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

Also, super weird outing from Chapman. IIRC his first two fastballs were 95-96 and I assumed he was hurt. He started trending towards 101 towards the end.

Last edited 9 months ago by Francoeurstein
rickdugo3000
9 months ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

He has done this pretty much all year. His first pitch of an inning is usually 95-98 and then he gains 3-5mph from there throughout the inning. Almost as if he’s done this a lot and gotten a pretty good idea of what he needs to do — like he has 367 saves or something

FrancoeursteinMember since 2025
9 months ago
Reply to  rickdugo3000

“Almost as if”

God I hate internet snark.

OgbertMember since 2025
9 months ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

Some of that may have to do with coming into the game pitching out of the stretch. I think Chappy tends to need his full windup to uncork 100+ consistently, but that’s anecdotal/memory-based and I’m not sure if that’s true in actuality without scrubbing through all of his appearances this season.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

I had forgotten about Judge’s arm issue, but clearly Sogard hadn’t. I did think Judge was a bit casual in getting to the ball and getting it in, being more focused on the runner heading to third.

FrancoeursteinMember since 2025
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

Totally forgot about it too. Gives the play much needed context.

David Klein
9 months ago

Boy was that Houdini act by Chapman in the ninth with the bases loaded and no out incredible and reminded me of Diaz’s save vs the Reds a month or so ago in the same situation the difference was Chapman didn’t need to change his shoes. Crochet is incredible he’s totally worth his weight in gold.

DavidMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

And he’s a heavy dude. As a White Sox fan it makes me sad we didn’t get to enjoy him longer.

carterMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

Fortunately if my math is correct he is actually worth *2x* his weight in gold (over the course of his contract). It’s 83m for 250lbs of gold. He’s getting roughly twice that, but also weighs 260. But you have to assume there is a bulk discount as well.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
9 months ago

Fire Boone into the sun.

opifijiklMember since 2024
9 months ago

Lifetime contract! He brought them to the World Series last year, that deserves at least a few more years.

-totally not a Red Sox fan

MoMember since 2024
9 months ago

I was surprised he didn’t pinch run for Goldschmidt in the 9th. It didn’t end up mattering, but they could have been down to their final out with the tying run on 3rd rather than 2nd. That could have made a big difference. Plus, if Goldschmidt comes out of the game, then Ben Rice plays 1st.

It felt like the kind of conservative, non-decision that managers use to avoid blame.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  Mo

I wonder whether Goldschmidt (or a pinch runner) scoring on the hit to right allows Judge to get to 3rd. The Chisolm fly to Abreu may have been enough to score the tying run.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

There is the thought the goldy should not be aggressive when his run wouldn’t tie the game but in the playoffs i think you have to weight heavily who the pitcher is. Chapman has been almost unhittable. so i would have told goldy (or a pinch runner) to push the limit and make the Red Sox throw him out at home (and also hopefully get Judge to third) on either the base hit by Bellinger or the fly by Chishom.

Chapman was very unlike to give up loud contact to the bottom of the order. Of course if a runner is thrown out on the bases we would scream about it, but its crazy hard to score 2 of chapman.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

There was no hit to right. Bellinger dropped a hit into left-center to load the bases. After Stanton struck out, Chisholm popped to right. It would have been crazy to send the man from 3rd because that run was meaningless but Abreu should have thrown to 3rd to be certain that the tying run stayed at 2nd.

JimmieFoxxalorianMember since 2020
9 months ago

Spectacular game! Loved every minute of it

sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 months ago

11 strikeouts, no walks, four hits (but a solo homer) over 7+ innings.

When I think of a #1, Crochet is exactly the type of pitcher who comes to mind. A “league ace” who is more likely to give a performance like this in a short series against one of MLB’s best offenses (potentially best offense in this case).

Pitchers like this are so much more valuable in the playoffs, especially in a 3 or 5 game series. The teams that have them have a huge edge in the games where they start in a series where one game has outsized importance.

Of course the Red Sox can only start him once in this series, so this is going to be an uphill slog in Games 2 and 3…

cashgod27Member since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

If that report that David Stearns immediately shot down Sproat and Jett Williams as the main package for Crochet is true, Steve Cohen may need to do some serious evaluation. I get it was “risky”, but I don’t know how teams saw a guy with a 30% K-BB% in Year 1 of starting and didn’t jump all over it. Kudos to the Red Sox for doing so.

rickdugo3000
9 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

Yeah when people bring up the retrospective “risk” in trading for Crochet that K-BB is exactly what they ignore and overlook. It wasn’t like he was Joe Ryan or somebody merely “very good”. It’s like nobody was watching him. Healthy pitchers who do what he does are absolute gods.

Last edited 9 months ago by rickdugo3000
sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  rickdugo3000

Your use of scare quotes around risk does downplay (ignore?) the very real risk of injury and/or reduced effectiveness from a season where he pitched more than he had before.

The Red Sox took a calculated gamble and look really good after a year.

If Crochet did get hurt/was less effective, the fanbase would be trying to run Breslow out on a rail right now.

rickdugo3000
9 months ago

Every single pitcher has enormous injury risk it’s almost not worth talking about. Teams still pay them.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  rickdugo3000

There are degrees of injury risk and every single team considers those degrees carefully.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago

I know. I hate the monday morning QBing on the trade. Tons of people (and probably some of the same people praising the deal now) were saying crochet was destined for TJ any day, he had never put in a full season so would be gassed by September, pitched in low pressure only for white sox, etc.

Its working out, so it looks great. And I would have made the trade too! But come on, it was risky and the teams that didn’t do it are not automatically stupid.

rickdugo3000
9 months ago
Reply to  mconsultatl

Yoshinobu Yamomoto got $325m after an intense bidding war as a 5’10” guy from Japan. Teams were lining up for Sasaki and would have given him something similar. Corbin Burnes got $210m after we saw a year-over-year trending decline in key metrics. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell got mid-$100m contracts as guys that have proven they can’t stay healthy.

Elite upside starting pitching is the most expensive thing in the sport. Teams go crazy. For good reason! We saw why they do last night.

Crochet was a 25 year old flamethrowing monster at the time of the trade. It was so easy to see that he could become what he is given health. The risk is always there.

He absolutely should have cost more, and I’ll submit that were he developed (perhaps more conventionally) by any other organization in baseball, he would have.

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  rickdugo3000

Crochet had arm injuries dating back to college and hadn’t started a single professional game before last year. His innings total jumped from ~25 to ~150, and he was showing signs of fatigue. That’s not normal injury risk, and that’s why he came at a discount. I agree that it’s a risk worth taking because of the upside, but I wouldn’t have traded a top 20 prospect for him.

Yer Main GuyMember since 2024
9 months ago

To 20 prospects have all that risk and then some.

DavidMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  rickdugo3000

To be fair, he was developed in an org with a decent to good track record on that front. Crochet, Cease, Lopez, Rodon, Giolito, Sale, Quintana, Shane Smith this year… The White Sox are terrible at many things, but pitching development hasn’t really been that bad.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  rickdugo3000

*Healthy* pitchers is the key term here. Crochet’s track record of pitching under a starter’s workload was nonexistent until 2024–it consisted of 11 starts in *2018*, and he’s already had some major injuries as a reliever. And he looked like he might be wearing down near the end of 2024.

That’s an entirely different level of risk than “being a pitcher.” Anyone who wants to retrospectively minimize those risks is either rewriting their past or was blindly optimistic.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

At the time of the deal, I think Sproat was a top 20-30 prospect and Williams top 50-100 or so. The Red Sox, by comparison, reportedly refused to include Anthony, Campbell, or Mayer in the deal for Crochet. They ended up giving up Teel (top 40ish), Montgomery (a 45+), Gonzalez (40+), and Meidroth (40).

Given that, that’s a pretty reasonable no from Stearns, and the injury history is a good reason.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

There were a *lot* of good reasons to be skeptical at the time. He had barely pitched in his pro career due to injuries and the fact that he was a reliever. I think he might have had two major arm surgeries already? There was absolutely no reason to think he could hold up over a full season with that level of performance and they did start limiting near the end of 2024. There was real concern that after such a huge innings jump he would hurt his arm again or otherwise fade in effectiveness. Turns out none of those came to pass in 2025 but they were absolutely real concerns at the time.

FrancoeursteinMember since 2025
9 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It’s a borderline miracle that he was able to sustain his elite level of pitching with the workload he was given this year. No one could have seen that coming.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

Lots of people will say they saw it coming, but if that’s true it’s because except saw full seasons coming from *all* of their team’s pitchers every year. When your default is that everyone pitches 165 innings every year and many will go much higher it’s not much of a prediction.

FrancoeursteinMember since 2025
9 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’m not sure what you’re saying, ST.

David Klein
9 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

I think it was more like the Chisox liked the Red Sox offer more from I read from non Heyman sources.

OgbertMember since 2025
9 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

Right? I mean, in 3-5 years or so, the White Sox’s haul from their fellow hose-wearers could be a massive component of a contending window (Teel looks the part, Wikelman and Meidroth already look quite useful, Braden Montgomery looked really good at three minor league levels this season).

But, as the Red Sox, you do that trade 11 times out of 10 for exactly the sort of start Crochet just gave them in G1.

Last edited 9 months ago by Ogbert
cashgod27Member since 2024
9 months ago

This is the exact nightmare scenario for the Yankees. Crochet and Chapman pitched all nine innings yesterday, and now Whitlock and Chapman can probably pitch three of them tomorrow.

With how much of a mess the bullpen has been and clearly still is, really hard to see a path to victory for NYY unless they shell Bello. Which they very well could!

sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

They have two games and they won’t face Crochet again. They absolutely have a path to victory.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

To clarify this: They obviously have to win both of them. But going on a two-game winning streak against a team with a BaseRuns record of 93-69 is possible for basically any team. I count approximately 15 teams who did it against the Red Sox this year, including the White Sox, Pirates, and the Yankees themselves.

This is also true for the Tigers / Guardians matchup. And it’s made easier because the dropoff from guys like Skubal or Crochet to the rest of their rotations is enormous, and it’s not like either game was a huge blowout.

cashgod27Member since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

With more time to dwell on it, I feel better about the Yankees’ chances, at least tonight. Game 1 was incredibly close. The drop-off in starter quality from Game 1 to Game 2 is far more drastic for the Red Sox than it is for the Yankees, and they get Rice and Chisholm back in the lineup against the righty.

opifijiklMember since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

Depends on whether they can frazzle Bello – he seems to spiral after a walk/hit etc. If they can, they’ll be in good shape for some long innings.

That’s an emotional take; I don’t have any stats to back the frazzle thing up besides the eye test. It would be interesting if someone could quantify that.

opifijiklMember since 2024
9 months ago

Feels like this year the Red Sox have been great this year at playing to their strengths, being able to get great contributions from most players, even if they weren’t the starters they went into the season planning to play. I think that Cora has done a good job getting the team to play however they need to in order to succeed, whether via smallball or homers or whatever.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
9 months ago
Reply to  opifijikl

This is an excellent observation. The contributions from the castoffs has been instrumental in the Red Sox being where they are. Rob Refsnyder has been a force against lefties, 165 OPS this year, in his 4 years with the Red Sox. I will admit that nobody could have foreseen Romy Gonzalez putting up a 128 OPS+ but he did. Nick Sogard, as shown last night, and Nate Eaton both played well whenever they were called upon. When the bench players are hitting above league average this adds a large dimension that most teams are lacking.

sokpuppetMember since 2025
9 months ago

Would it have been crazy to pinch hit for Grisham against Chapman in the ninth so you wouldn’t have a lefty who struck out 3 times in the game against one of the best lefty closers in baseball?

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  sokpuppet

The only reasonable option would have been Rice at that point (the bench was him, Dominguez (switch hitter, bad against LHP), McMahon (lefty and terrible) and Escarra (third C for Rice/Wells) — Jazz was already in the game). Slater’s inactive (he’s been useless). Rice had moderately better numbers against LHP this year.

That does mean that you likely have Dominguez in LF in extras if goes that far, but I’d rather get to extras and blow it there then not at all…

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago

It’s weird that their was not a real option (as you point out) for NY in this situation. To me that is what Slater was supposed to be for but like you said…

sokpuppetMember since 2025
9 months ago

Rice would have been reasonable in that spot given how good he’s been this season and lack of a track record against Chapman.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  sokpuppet

To be clear, given that he’s only not been the Yankees hottest hitter recently because Judge put up a Judgian September, I would have went with Rice myself.

I can’t hate leaving Grisham in there too much though — Chapman wasn’t exactly pinpoint out there, and Grisham’s had some big high leverage hits for the Yanks this year.

opifijiklMember since 2024
9 months ago

Other thoughts:

  • Ben Rice – I saw some people praising Cora for gaming to keep Rice on the bench. Is this true? Could Boone have counter-gamed to get Rice into the game somewhere?
  • Volpe – I still like watching him play and that little jumpy bouncy routine on first must be so distracting to the pitcher! I was distracted as a viewer.
  • The Rafaela stunned look after Wild Willy drive-by’d his fly out was funny.
Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  opifijikl

Boone could have counter-gamed by starting Ben Rice, given that Goldschmidt hasn’t hit well against LHP since May.

Ciudad FritosMember since 2023
9 months ago

Maybe, but Goldschmidt did get 2 hits out of lefties yesterday, albeit singles.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  Ciudad Fritos

Yeah I like the Goldy start actually. The problem was not having a righty on the bench to counter moves late in game.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  Ciudad Fritos

Was having him catch not an option?

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

Fried preferred not to work with him — they’ve only worked together once, IIRC.

opifijiklMember since 2024
9 months ago

I just looked at Rice’s splits vs lefties. .208 AVG but .481 SLG (his SLG vs righties is .501, not tooo different) and a 104 WOBA. That seems playable.

Goldschmidt’s splits vs lefties are very good too though, and he did get 2 hits yesterday.

Not sure what point I’m trying to make. Lineup construction is hard.

CosmoMember since 2024
9 months ago

His wRC+ vs Lefties is 169, how poorly could he have hit them in the last 4 months of the season?

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  opifijikl

I don’t know if any of Cora’s strategy was specifically aimed to keep Rice out of the game but if he goes to Whitlock in the 8th, we probably would have seen Rice as a PH.

tarvisMember since 2019
9 months ago

I’m a little surprised more isn’t being made of the ghost of Aaron Judge’s right arm today … not that it was THE story of the game last night, but goodness, his lollipop tosses certainly were a contributing factor to that 2 run inning!

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  tarvis

It isn’t news — this has been the status quo since his injury. You live with it because your other options are 1) Stanton 2) not playing Aaron Judge 3) not playing Stanton.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago

Cardinals also had a similar situation way back in the day where Pujols was in the outfield (and had an arm injury) and an infielder would run like mad towards him anytime the ball was hit to Pujols. I think the yankees are doing the right thing but the players should maybe have a bit more urgency when hit to him?

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
9 months ago

You live with it, but wouldn’t the damage be less in left, at least in terms of runners going first to third?

tarvisMember since 2019
9 months ago

This is more or less what I was thinking … I know you need both Stanton and Judge in the game and the ghost of Judge’s right arm is still better than the (uncomplimentary) statuesque Stanton … so why not move Judge to left where his arm is less of a liability? We know he can field the position with skill … it just seems like an odd hill to lose on when the Sox have absolutely no compunction about running hard on anything hit to Judge.

Jon L.Member since 2016
9 months ago

He’s a good right fielder and very familiar with that position, especially in Yankee Stadium. Left field is much bigger, and he literally never plays there.

They said his arm looked great in warmups, so it’s surprising he wasn’t able to make strong throws in the game.

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  Jon L.

I get all that–I just figured that since he spent a few years masquerading as a center fielder, he could handle left. He did make a few starts there last year as well, though I’m sure not enough to be super familiar with the position.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago

You almost need a better arm in LF at Yankee stadium because of the depth of left-center.

PressXToJason
9 months ago

If it was Fenway, they’d be able to hide him a lot easier over there. It might actually be hurting the Yankees to have home field advantage in this specific situation.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  tarvis

I was surprised that his play of the ball and his throw was pretty much ignored on the TV broadcast (unless I missed it). The discussion was mostly about Sogard’s hustle and daring.

darren
9 months ago

I’m still astounded at Crochet’s ability to pitch so many innings this year. The workload looked to be catching up to him at bit down the stretch but the past few games he’s been incredible.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

There is no reason that Crochet should not have been able to throw 205 innings in a season. I grew up in an era in which pitchers didn’t automatically come out after 6 innings. In 1968, for example, 56 pitchers threw over 200 innings and most of these men pitched for many years. Some arms fell off but most didn’t. Ever since the game was invented there have been attempts to find out why but nobody has come up with a reason. Crochet will never be allowed to be what Bob Gibson or Tom Seaver or Steve Carlton showed was possible but there is no reason he couldn’t if given the opportunity.

AsaMember since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

In those days pitchers could let up against 7-9. They can’t anymore. Now most have to nibble to avoid contact.
So they all go for the strikeout because hitters are so optimized for the long ball. It takes a toll by the 6th. This isn’t the same game they played in 1985. I miss the old ways too, pitching to contact and trusting your fielders. But in this day and age if you do that you’re going to be pulled from the game when you start going through the order the 2nd time — because the opposition will take you deep. Monsters like Crochet and Skubal are built a bit differently because their stuff is so unhittable. But even they don’t challenge hitters like Judge.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  Asa

This and 800 other differences.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I don’t see the relevance of comparing his workload to those of pitchers from 50 years ago. Too much has changed.

Putting that aside, Crochet has dealt with a number of injuries that, before last year, prevented him from pitching more than 50 innings (65 if you count college) in a season. Even in 2024, he fell off hard in the second half of the season, despite the White Sox severely limiting his innings.

For that guy to be dominant, lead the league in innings pitched, and keep pitching well in the postseason was surprising and impressive to me.

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

There have been lots of comments on this already about how this ignores Crochet’s lengthy injury history, but what was the average velocity for those 56 pitchers in 1968? The very likely reason that pitchers throw fewer innings, which has been written about ad nauseam, is the max effort involved in generating high velocity and spin.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago

Yeah if those same 56 pitchers came back now, probably 2/3 of them are throwing 89 mph fastballs or trying to sneak 78 mph curves on the outer half and get destroyed. Gibson and Seaver would be fine but most wouldn’t.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
9 months ago

These arguments are the same ones that I have heard constantly and I question the validity of them because I watched Bob Gibson and he put everything he had into every pitch he threw. He applied so much torque that he spun around after each and every pitch. Steve Carlton’s slider, perhaps the best one ever, broke as much or more than anything thrown today. The spin rate was obviously extremely high yet he pitched for 24 years and his arm never fell off. I think there are many pitchers today who might be the equal of those greats and that it is sad that today’s pitchers aren’t given the opportunity to see if they are cut from the same cloth.

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Survivorship bias or the exception that proves the rule (how many non-greats are you not remembering because they blew out young). You expect most pitchers to throw as many innings as the greats (presuming that health is not a ‘skill’ and every flamethrower can be Nolan Ryan), but so many today are getting injured without throwing anywhere near 200 innings. Even presuming that maybe some pitchers today could handle that workload, why on earth would you expect Crochet, who before last year had only started in college and had TJS as a reliever, to be one of them?

hopbittersMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Everybody (every body?) is built differently and there have been huge advances in training, nutrition, and tracking of every minute detail. Is it that hard to imagine that one or two guys might have the right combination of mechanics and biology to make it work with careful monitoring and tweaks? I’m not saying Crochet is the guy, but somebody?

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Two of the greatest pitchers of all time. Like top 10-15. Among the freaks of nature who can pitch in the Major Leagues, these guys were freaks of nature.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

Of course they were freaks of nature. All pitchers who reach the show are to some degree but how can we find out if there are other freaks if they never get a chance to show what they have. If coddling pitchers was shown to have any value then an argument could be made but nothing indicates that limiting the number of pitches a man throws does anything towards preserving his health. The Joba Rules were laughable and poor Jacob deGrom was pulled from a large number of games with the lead only to see the Mets bullpen cough it up. This was obviously futile because, unfortunately for all of us who love the game, it didn’t keep him off the IL and under the knife. I am not expecting a repeat of the 6/14/1974 game between Luis Tiant and Nolan Ryan but as recently as 2011 Justin Verlander threw between 105 and 132 pitches in every one of his 34 starts and it is well known that he was throwing just as hard in the 9th as he was in the 1st and is still pitching effectively. Nobody expects to see return to the days of 250 innings but I would think teams would be better served if they asked their top of the rotation men to reach 200-220 if for no reason other than eating up the 50 or so innings that Jordan Hicks is on the bump.

dezreMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

It doesn’t seem healthy, generally, to throw that many high intensity innings. Very few can do it. Many many more have not. And it’s a more involved decision these days…more input from players and medical staff / specialists (nutritionists, strength training, etc.) They’re all pretty incentivized to get max innings from the player. Why attempt to hold the modern player to such an archaic standard? Not everyone can pitch 200+ innings, and players shouldn’t have to try to.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

What’s interesting to me is that there were so many young dudes on that list, and how many of them were out of the league by 32/33. It’s a meat-grinder mentality that had some HOFers come out the other end, but it chewed up some dudes. (It’s not that far off from what some people find distasteful about the Rays’ pitching machine, in a different sort of way.)

That having been said, I’m not sure if the pendulum hasn’t swung too wide the other way. Or if the innings before they hit the pros aren’t adding up in some way.

Whoever figures it out will likely make a lot of money.

darren
9 months ago

The platooning decisions by the Red Sox were pretty interesting. Refsnyder is a no brainer–he hits lefties very well and always has.

But the rest are at least debatable because of Fried’s splits:

2025: vs L: .674 OPS; vs R: .598 OPS
2024: vs L: .859 OPS; vs R: .589 OPS
2023: vs L: .600 OPS; vs R: .638 OPS

Given those numbers, there’s a good argument for getting Yoshida, and possibly Lowe, into the lineup somewhere.

JimmyMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

That’s a very small sample size (just 89 2/3 innings vs. lefties out of 447 1/3 total), and it’s extremely susceptible to selection bias, as the main lefties who face him are the ones who are quite good. If you take Shohei Ohtani alone out of the sample (.953 wOBA with 3 HR in 9 PA) Fried’s wOBA against lefties goes down from .326 to 0.311. If you look at the list of 36 lefty batters who have been allowed to face Fried 5 times over the past 3 years, it’s disproportionately really good hitters. I don’t blame anyone for just going with the ordinary platoon advantage there, especially when Yoshida has always been drastically better against righties (118 wRC+) vs. lefties (80 wRC+).

Now, Fried’s pitch usage is so drastically different against righties (primary cutter plus a kitchen sink approach) vs. lefties (mostly sinker-sweeper), so it makes sense to key off that if there’s something in particular the batter is good against. If we look at a relatively small sample over Yoshida’s career, the only pitch he’s hit with any authority off lefties is the 4-seam fastball, which Fried throws just 10% of the time against lefties and surely would just avoid here. Yoshida had an ISO of just .098 against lefty sinkers and an abysmal (for him) 31.4% whiff rate against sweepers. There’s no way you let that guy bat against a tough lefty in a playoff game.

All this to say, be really careful when calling to start same handed batters with tough platoon splits against tough pitchers with reverse splits. Odds are the top line numbers are misleading.

Last edited 9 months ago by Jimmy
darren
9 months ago
Reply to  Jimmy

Wow that’s a really great, deep analysis.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

Now, Fried’s pitch usage is so drastically different against righties (primary cutter plus a kitchen sink approach) vs. lefties (mostly sinker-sweeper), so it makes sense to key off that if there’s something in particular the batter is good against. If we look at a relatively small sample over Yoshida’s career, the only pitch he’s hit with any authority off lefties is the 4-seam fastball, which Fried throws just 10% of the time against lefties and surely would just avoid here. 

I thought about this a little more. Wouldn’t Fried’s numbers here be based on just as small of a sample and just as susceptible to selection bias? And what of the Yoshida’s splits on fastballs, which are based on 284 plate appearances over three years?

All this to say, be really careful when calling to start same handed batters with tough platoon splits against tough pitchers with reverse splits. Odds are the top line numbers are misleading.

This part was kind of condescending. I wasn’t calling for them to start, I said it was interesting and there was a good argument for it.

Overall, it’s important to remember that we aren’t talking about Yoshida/Lowe vs. someone like Rob Refsnyder. We’re comparing them to minor league journeymen Nate Eaton and Nick Sogard. And we’re talking about a lineup that looked like it would struggle greatly to score runs. With those things in mind, I think there’s an argument for starting one or both of Yoshida/Lowe. I probably would have put one of them in and hoped for the best.

JimmyMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  darren

Sure, it’s a small sample for those, but I noted that, and my point is that even if we try to get really granular we don’t see convincing evidence that Yoshida would match up well with Fried.

Apologies if I came off as condescending. That wasn’t my intention.

booondMember since 2019
9 months ago

Fried saying he could’ve pitched more is why managers/coaches have to ignore what athletes say. He was struggling. Boone was correct to give him the one and done in the seventh. Problem was Boone had no one reliable in the pen. Yankees need a big game from Roden and their offense. They don’t want to go back to the pen tonight.

Chapman’s last pitch to Grishman was perfect. Over 100, in on his hands, and borderline enough that Grishman has to swing but likely can’t make good contact.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  booond

I think if i was Boone i would have tried to get 8 outs from Devin and Bednar. Easy to say in retrospect I know but weaver has not looked nearly as good as last year, and Fried got you into the 7th.

AsaMember since 2024
9 months ago
Reply to  booond

Fried was clearly running out of gas. Two hitters later, it might have been too late.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  booond

I agree. Whether you agree with Boone pulling him or not, Fried saying he could have gone further is not something that should matter. How many pitchers are going to say “Nah, I’m beat, let’s give someone else a shot”?

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago
Reply to  booond

I honestly thought sendiing him out to get Duran was brilliant, and I’m not sure I would have gone to a reliever other than Weaver. Not that I had a ton of confidence in Weaver, but if he was on, he absolutely can get you to Devin/Bednar.

It didn’t work.

Sometimes, in baseball as in life, you make the right decisions and things still don’t work out.

I am more frustrated by first and second with no out in the first and bases loaded, no outs in the 9th both coming up empty. For as many times as Stanton has come up huge for the Yanks in the postseason (and this year), that DP was a killer and whiffing on the hanging splitter in the 9th was brutal.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 months ago

Turning those two Navarez walks into the Ks they should have been would have changed the complexion of the game entirely.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
9 months ago

Wait till next year!

darren
9 months ago

I was really impressed with Valentine aside from that really bad call on the Narvaez pitch. He seemed to be really do a great job on pitches that were on the edge of the zone or just outside it. Umpire Scorecard gave him a 93% accuracy rating, which is above average, and said he favored Boston by 0.07 runs.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
9 months ago

Whitlock could be the key to game 2. Early in his career he was a multi-inning stud but has been used almost exclusively as the 8th inning set-up man since the end of June. I wonder if Cora might ask him for 3 innings today if the opportunity arises.

darren
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Do you mean use him for 3 + 1 inning from Chapman or have him close out the game?

Either way, I don’t think he will. He has enough confidence in his other relievers to try to play matchups until he can get to Whitlock for 2 and Chapman for 1. I’m not sure that confidence is well-founded but he has it. 🙂

Uncle SpikeMember since 2020
9 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

2 maybe but I would be very surprised if he was asked to go 3.