Ball-In-Play Leaders and Laggards: AL Pitchers
A few weeks back, we took a look at the 2014 offensive ball-in-play leaders and laggards from both leagues. As the second half of the offseason kicks into gear, let’s now take a look at the same information from the pitcher’s perspective. Today: the American League.
Below are the top and bottom 10 American Leaguers in popup, fly ball, line drive and ground ball percentage, for pitchers who allowed a minimum of 215 balls in play last season:
| POP % | FLY % | LD % | GB % | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Young | 21.25% | Santiago | 38.62% | Capuano | 26.53% | Keuchel | 60.72% | |||
| S.Baker | 17.89% | Bedard | 37.02% | Otero | 25.40% | Petricka | 60.49% | |||
| Duffy | 16.26% | Odorizzi | 36.72% | Tomlin | 25.00% | Badenhop | 60.00% | |||
| Odorizzi | 12.96% | Redmond | 36.32% | Salazar | 24.92% | Masterson | 58.60% | |||
| P.Hughes | 12.58% | C.Young | 36.25% | Tepesch | 24.33% | House | 57.77% | |||
| Milone | 12.30% | Hutchison | 36.08% | R.De la Rosa | 23.90% | Belisario | 57.07% | |||
| Santiago | 12.28% | McGowan | 35.97% | Tanaka | 23.86% | Kelly | 55.44% | |||
| Maurer | 12.24% | Jr.Weaver | 35.87% | S.Baker | 23.58% | F.Hernandez | 55.17% | |||
| C.Lewis | 12.10% | N.Martinez | 35.79% | Warren | 23.26% | Cobb | 54.47% | |||
| N.Martinez | 12.08% | E.Ramirez | 35.44% | S.Greene | 23.26% | Gray | 53.89% | |||
| ————– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ————– | ———– | |||
| Masterson | 4.84% | Gray | 21.38% | Duffy | 18.47% | Jr.Weaver | 33.92% | |||
| S.Greene | 4.65% | Deduno | 20.07% | K.Gibson | 18.47% | Bauer | 33.87% | |||
| F.Hernandez | 4.55% | Otero | 19.84% | Skaggs | 18.36% | N.Martinez | 33.33% | |||
| Badenhop | 4.55% | Kelly | 19.39% | Peavy | 18.20% | C.Lewis | 33.27% | |||
| Keuchel | 4.50% | Petricka | 18.05% | F.Hernandez | 17.86% | Redmond | 33.02% | |||
| Rienzo | 4.33% | Keuchel | 17.66% | Petricka | 17.56% | Bedard | 32.34% | |||
| Carrasco | 4.06% | Belisario | 17.56% | Cobb | 17.21% | Santiago | 30.24% | |||
| Petricka | 3.90% | House | 17.23% | Keuchel | 17.12% | Odorizzi | 28.29% | |||
| Otero | 3.57% | Badenhop | 16.82% | Sale | 16.12% | S.Baker | 24.80% | |||
| House | 3.38% | Masterson | 16.40% | McGowan | 15.42% | C.Young | 22.29% | |||
| ————– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ————– | ———– | |||
| AVG | 8.21% | 28.51% | 20.83% | 42.44% |
As we did with the hitters, let’s move through the frequency data relatively quickly. From a pitcher’s perspective, a popup is a very good thing, as major league hitters batted .015 AVG-.019 SLG on them last year. Inducing popups is a skill, as pitchers’ popup rates correlate very highly from one season to the next. By far, the three most prolific popup inducers were in the AL last season. Chris Young is an outlier among outliers in this regard, with his silly 21.25% popup rate — more than two-and-one-half times the AL average. Scott Baker and Danny Duffy weren’t all that far behind. We’ll talk about those two a little more later on.
Having a low popup rate isn’t necessarily a deal breaker, as one might deduce from the presence of a guy named Felix Hernandez on the popup laggard list. You just have to do other things really well, and as one might expect, Felix does just that in myriad areas, even once you take the Ks and BBs out of the equation, as we’re doing today.
As with the hitters, you see a lot of the same names on the fly ball leaders/ground ball laggards, and vice versa. As with the hitters, there are not many pitchers who yield more fly balls than grounders. While this combination is generally negative for hitters moving forward, it isn’t necessarily so for pitchers, provided they manage fly ball authority to some extent. There were 11 AL qualifying pitchers who yielded more fly balls than grounders in 2014; the 10 fly ball percentage leaders, less Dustin McGowan and Erasmo Ramirez, plus Trevor Bauer, Colby Lewis and Baker.
Despite his rough season, Justin Masterson had the lowest fly ball rate and the second highest grounder rate, behind Dallas Keuchel, among AL starters.
Line drive rates fluctuate more from season to season than other BIP frequencies. Still, it can be quite instructive to observe pitchers who had great seasons despite high liner rates. Dan Otero has been a lifesaver in Oakland for two seasons now; how good could his 2014 been if he hadn’t allowed a 25.4% liner rate? Ditto Masahiro Tanaka, with his lofty 23.86% mark. From another perspective, low liner rates were a contributing factor to the exceptional seasons of both Hernandez and Chris Sale last season; in 2012 and 2013, both pitchers had above league average liner rates.
Next, let’s look at the production by BIP type data. For each major BIP type, each leader and laggard’s AVG and SLG allowed is listed, as well as their production allowed relative to the league average for that BIP type, scaled to 100:
| FLY AVG | FLY SLG | REL FLY | LD AVG | LD SLG | REL LD | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masterson | 0.410 | 1.164 | 244 | Whitley | 0.811 | 1.057 | 149 | |
| S.Baker | 0.361 | 1.024 | 189 | E.Ramirez | 0.773 | 0.977 | 131 | |
| Tomlin | 0.353 | 1.010 | 183 | Peavy | 0.729 | 1.037 | 130 | |
| House | 0.333 | 1.020 | 178 | Verlander | 0.711 | 1.067 | 130 | |
| R.Ross | 0.391 | 0.884 | 169 | Bedard | 0.740 | 0.980 | 125 | |
| Nolasco | 0.350 | 0.885 | 155 | Kluber | 0.722 | 0.970 | 121 | |
| Dickey | 0.335 | 0.888 | 150 | C.Lewis | 0.729 | 0.924 | 117 | |
| Doubront | 0.341 | 0.875 | 149 | N.Martinez | 0.690 | 0.988 | 117 | |
| Salazar | 0.330 | 0.862 | 143 | Rienzo | 0.683 | 1.000 | 117 | |
| Lackey | 0.314 | 0.858 | 137 | Keuchel | 0.726 | 0.916 | 116 | |
| ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | |
| Santiago | 0.209 | 0.550 | 58 | Duffy | 0.560 | 0.787 | 76 | |
| Archer | 0.211 | 0.517 | 54 | Gausman | 0.592 | 0.724 | 75 | |
| An.Sanchez | 0.230 | 0.470 | 52 | Deduno | 0.581 | 0.710 | 72 | |
| Cosart | 0.217 | 0.492 | 52 | Badenhop | 0.561 | 0.732 | 71 | |
| Warren | 0.197 | 0.525 | 52 | C.Ramos | 0.553 | 0.702 | 68 | |
| Duffy | 0.183 | 0.500 | 46 | Petricka | 0.528 | 0.722 | 66 | |
| Carrasco | 0.184 | 0.483 | 45 | Carrasco | 0.548 | 0.671 | 64 | |
| G.Richards | 0.221 | 0.404 | 43 | Otero | 0.563 | 0.641 | 64 | |
| B.Shaw | 0.159 | 0.508 | 43 | B.Shaw | 0.537 | 0.634 | 60 | |
| Pineda | 0.155 | 0.423 | 33 | Tepesch | 0.510 | 0.670 | 59 | |
| ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | |
| AVG | 0.276 | 0.701 | 100 | 0.656 | 0.852 | 100 |
| GB AVG | GB SLG | REL GB | BIP AVG | BIP SLG | REL BIP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lewis | 0.326 | 0.396 | 191 | Nolasco | 0.379 | 0.606 | 140 | |
| McAllister | 0.333 | 0.377 | 188 | Tomlin | 0.360 | 0.613 | 134 | |
| Odorizzi | 0.344 | 0.359 | 188 | Whitley | 0.377 | 0.583 | 134 | |
| Nolasco | 0.327 | 0.386 | 187 | C.Lewis | 0.368 | 0.592 | 132 | |
| Santiago | 0.337 | 0.366 | 186 | Salazar | 0.370 | 0.576 | 130 | |
| Oberholtzer | 0.322 | 0.368 | 177 | Rienzo | 0.358 | 0.573 | 125 | |
| N.Martinez | 0.329 | 0.356 | 177 | Masterson | 0.357 | 0.556 | 121 | |
| Belisario | 0.325 | 0.350 | 172 | R.Ross | 0.367 | 0.538 | 121 | |
| Peacock | 0.317 | 0.353 | 168 | Peacock | 0.345 | 0.575 | 121 | |
| P.Hughes | 0.305 | 0.357 | 162 | E.Ramirez | 0.349 | 0.567 | 120 | |
| ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | |
| Kazmir | 0.210 | 0.215 | 69 | Gray | 0.295 | 0.415 | 75 | |
| Keuchel | 0.199 | 0.223 | 66 | McHugh | 0.283 | 0.437 | 75 | |
| U.Jimenez | 0.197 | 0.218 | 65 | An.Sanchez | 0.288 | 0.409 | 72 | |
| Kelly | 0.196 | 0.209 | 62 | F.Hernandez | 0.279 | 0.423 | 72 | |
| K.Gibson | 0.190 | 0.207 | 59 | Carrasco | 0.291 | 0.399 | 71 | |
| Dickey | 0.188 | 0.200 | 57 | B.Shaw | 0.267 | 0.403 | 66 | |
| J.Chavez | 0.190 | 0.196 | 57 | Otero | 0.280 | 0.371 | 64 | |
| Pineda | 0.174 | 0.174 | 47 | Duffy | 0.254 | 0.390 | 60 | |
| G.Richards | 0.162 | 0.162 | 40 | G.Richards | 0.270 | 0.352 | 59 | |
| Otero | 0.155 | 0.155 | 37 | Pineda | 0.243 | 0.378 | 56 | |
| ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | ————– | ———– | ———– | ———– | |
| 0.254 | 0.278 | 100 | 0.320 | 0.491 | 100 |
It should be noted that SH and SF are counted as outs for the purposes of this presentation, and homers allowed are included in all of the data, so the figures above do not line up with actual 2014 BABIP.
For each BIP type, I have assigned each player an authority score, based on the relative authority of contact allowed. The scale ranges from 89 to 105 for fly balls, from 91 to 105 for liners and from 91 to 107 for grounders. In most cases, the players on the leader lists had high authority scores, and the laggards had low ones. Not all of them, though.
In light of the Indians’ defensive struggles last season, it might not be surprising to see four Indians’ pitchers among the 10 allowing the most fly ball damage in the AL last season. Danny Salazar and Masterson, however, contributed by allowing very high fly ball authority scores in the air of 105 and 103, respectively. Only the aforementioned popup generator Scott Baker among the top 10 could match Salazar’s poor authority score.
On the other hand, T.J. House allowed significant fly ball damage despite a low fly ball authority score of 97. House is a very interesting pitcher, an under-the-radar type prospect who walks no one, has a decent K rate, induces a ton of grounders, and allows weaker than average authority in the air. He’s a player to watch in 2015.
Like House, Robbie Ross was unlucky on fly balls last year, allowing significant damage despite a solid 96 fly ball authority score. And like the Indians, the Red Sox are well represented (by the since-traded Felix Doubront and John Lackey) on the list of those allowing the most fly ball damage, largely due to the offense-inflating tendencies of the Green Monster.
Danny Duffy is an interesting case. As we saw earlier, he allows a ton of popups and fly balls. Among the pitchers allowing the least fly ball damage in 2014, he by far allowed the most authoritative contact in the air, with a 104 authority score. He is a perfect fit for his ballpark and outfield defense. Only Salazar and Baker of those allowing the most fly ball damage allowed more authoritative contact in the air.
Jarred Cosart also rates a mention. He just missed the top 10 grounder frequency list, ranking 11th, and allowed the 4th least damage on fly balls, with a solid 99 authority score. Lots of grounders plus limitation of fly ball authority equals upside, especially if he can whittle down his walk rate.
In general, you don’t want to read too much into line drive production allowed, as an awful lot of luck is involved. The above liner lists do offer constructive information on a couple of pitchers, however. Two of the 10 pitchers allowing the most production on liners last season actually allowed less than league average authority on liners. They were Erasmo Ramirez and Dallas Keuchel.
Ramirez’ raw numbers were not good last season, as he resided in the doghouse of the Mariners’ Manager Lloyd McClendon. While most Mariner pitchers fared quite well on fly balls and liners last season, thanks in large part to Safeco Field, Ramirez did not. He allowed the second most damage of AL qualifiers on liners, and narrowly missed the fly ball top 10. His authority score on fly balls was a bit high at 102, but that’s nothing Safeco wouldn’t generally obscure, and his liner authority score was a low 97. Ramirez drew the short straw luck-wise in 2014, and should be an attractive spring training target for clubs, as he is out of options and not really in the Mariners’ plans.
Keuchel, very quietly, has become a good pitcher. He ranked No. 1 — even ahead of the barely qualifying, low-K reliever grounder specialists like Jake Petricka and Burke Badenhop — in grounder frequency in the AL last season. Like House, he walks no one and has a respectable K rate for a grounder specialist. Oh, and we’ll revisit Keuchel once more regarding his ability to limit grounder authority.
Only two of the pitchers allowing the most production on grounders, Jake Odorizzi and Ronald Belisario, allowed weaker than average grounder authority. Belisario is an intriguing minor league free agent, albeit one with a limited upside. Odorizzi is much more than that, however. He’s a top 10 popup rate guy playing in a pitchers’ park for a club that values defense. He struck out over a batter per inning at age 24 last season, and the only reason his ERA was an uninspiring 4.13 was the fluky production he allowed on grounders. It wasn’t real, and he’s a good bet for a huge 2015 breakout.
The list of pitchers who allow the least grounder production in 2014 features four of the AL hurlers with the lowest grounder authority scores. Otero had the lowest at 91, and he was closely followed by Keuchel (93), Joe Kelly (95) and Garrett Richards (95). They all induce plenty of grounders, and they are often weakly pounded straight into the ground. Not all grounders are created equal.
The bottom right lists show the pitchers allowing the most and least damage on all BIP types combined last season. How’s that Ricky Nolasco long-term deal working out? He has higher than average authority scores on all BIP types, including a massive 106 on grounders. Salazar is a stud stuff-wise, but he needs to better manage contact in the air, and he needs more help from his defense. I still believe in him. Masterson wasn’t right health-wise in 2014, and should benefit by getting away from the Indians’ defense. His grounder tendency, the core of his skill set, remains intact. And then there’s Ramirez, a big breakout change of scenery pick for this season who was extremely unlucky on BIP in 2014 — he also had a grounder authority score of 98.
The list of the 10 pitchers who allowed the least production on balls in play contains many interesting names. There’s Felix, who maximizes Ks, minimizes BBs, and allows loads of weak ground ball contact. He’s hit hard in the air and on the line, but hey, he’s human, and Safeco. Anibal Sanchez suffocates contact, especially in the air. If he were more durable, he might be mentioned in the same breath as Felix. Richards was on the verge of becoming elite himself before his late 2014 injury. Otero is no fluke; he strikes out no one, but had the lowest fly ball and grounder authority scores in the AL last season.
The last words shall be devoted to Michael Pineda. He was a Mariner for most of the time I worked there, and while his K/BB ratio was always exceptional, he generally allowed fairly hard contact. He did have luck on his side in 2014, allowing the least damage on all BIP and on fly balls, and third least on grounders among AL qualifiers despite authority scores of 98 on fly balls and 100 on liners and grounders. Still, the stuff appears to be almost all of the way back. His control is impeccable; his command much improved. A healthy Michael Pineda with even average contact management skill is a star. He should be fun to watch.