Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/13/15

January 13, 2015

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to live baseball chat

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: This one’s going to end a little earlier than my chats usually do, owing to another obligation. But to make up for that, I’m starting late

9:04	Comment From Tony G. Any chance we see a bounce back for Alex Rios in 2015?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how much of a bounceback you’re looking for. Kansas City is a bad place to try to re-discover lost power, but I can see Rios fitting well in the system and being a half-decent semi-regular

9:05	Comment From Ryan Content, content, content!

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Glad to hear you’re so content!

9:06	Comment From Tommy Given his contact issues, would Sano be nearly as intriguing if power wasn’t so down across the board?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: When he was newly 20, he slugged .571 in Double-A

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The strikeouts are a legitimate issue, but Sano knows how to walk, and he just obliterates the baseball when he hits it. To do what he’s done at such young ages is something often done by future All-Stars

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: For reference, George Springer destroyed Double-A when he was 23. Now subtract three years.

9:09	Comment From L. Scott With the Pirates signing Kang, do you see them moving Jordy Mercer or keeping him as SS insurance? Would Mercer be a good target for the Mets?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates are kind of drowning in versatile middle-infielder types. There’s a whole lot of depth there, and it would seem like Mercer’s going to lose a good chunk of time given the commitment to Kang. However, it’s unclear right now whether Kang is really a shortstop, so I don’t think Mercer is automatically on his way out, at least at this point. And I don’t know if Mercer is sufficiently good to draw the Mets’ interest anyway

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure the Mets and Pirates have had conversations, but Mercer isn’t a great upgrade for New York, and he’s still kind of important for Pittsburgh. So I don’t think that one’s a given

9:11	Comment From Maxwell When you talk about how much value a team should get back in a trade for prospects, where do you get this info?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Public prospect valuations are my starting point. From there, you kind of have to go by feel, but I think it’s a neat tool that usually passes the smell test

9:13	Comment From American League Hustle Has Carlos Santana hit his ceiling, or are his best years yet to come?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been basically the same hitter since he came up. Never a wRC+ below 120, never above 140. This is what he is. His walk rate is getting insane.

9:14	Comment From THE Average Sports Fan Of the bargain bin free agents still available, any that stand out to you?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Let me take a quick look

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: No, not really

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’m pretty interested in Hector Olivera, whenever that happens

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: And I’ll never not be interested in Franklin Gutierrez, just because I’ve seen him at his best, but that’s more of my own blind spot than baseball’s

9:17	Comment From Roger Dodger Do you expect guys like Carrasco and McHugh to improve upon their impressive 2014 performances going forward?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Carrasco finished with a 72 xFIP-. McHugh, 82. I can’t in good conscience project improvement on those

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: (I meant 70, for Carrasco)

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I buy them both as good starters but I think they just hit their ceilings

9:20

Comment From STiVo
Hi Jeff. I loved your article on the history of adjustment to Mike Trout (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…). Quick question about the batter heat maps: Do the runs above average (RAA) figures in the maps compare the batter to the average of all hitters *on that part of the plate* or against the average of all pitches?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: That’s…actually a good question. I think it’s against the average of all pitches.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Would explain why the MLB league-average heat map isn’t all zeroes http://www.fangraphs.com/zo…

9:23	Comment From Nelson Do you think Vlad has a decent chance of making the hall (and then unfortunately replacing Rice as a reference for bad HOF selections)

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Decent chance sounds right — extraordinary, unusual skillset, terrifying, memorable, regarded as clean. I would personally want my Hall of Fame to include Vladimir Guerrero, but then I don’t think about the HoF much

9:24	Comment From Shawn Is there any way Shields really turned down $110M? That could be $20M more than anyone else

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I could see him turning down the biggest offer if it just came from a place he didn’t want to play, as was reported. Chase Headley turned down the biggest offer, from Oakland, because he didn’t want to go there

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if $110m is correct, but I could see a large bid

9:25	Comment From eelz Are you bullish on Xander Bogaerts? How do you compare his probability for success with, say, Nick Franklin over in Tampa?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I like Bogaerts much much more

9:25	Comment From Natitude Adjuster It’s a great time to be a DC sports fan. We have the most Ovechkin player in the NHL (Alex Ovechkin) and the most Ovechkin player in MLB (Bryce Harper). Don’t you like watching Bryce Harper play baseball?!

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I like watching Bryce Harper play baseball

9:25	Comment From Mike D. Any thoughts on Heyward in STL?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Super good?

9:27	Comment From Guy I’m trying real hard to see Nick Franklin as Ben Zobrist v.2.0, offensively. BZ had a better track record in the minors, but was much older than NF at each stop. Your thoughts?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Franklin’s probably never going to develop Zobrist’s discipline or contact skills. The selling point will be surprising power from a player his size. The fantasy is that Franklin turns into another Ben Zobrist, but for now the Rays might be happy if he’s just more than another Sean Rodriguez

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Well let me take that back, Rodriguez has been worth about 1.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances in his career. That’s not awful

9:29	Comment From jelly billy beane even after the zobrist trade (which i loved) i still have no idea what to make of the butler contract. any thoughts on this besides what Eno said?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think the A’s like that he’s relatively young for a free agent, and I think they realized certain free agents just wouldn’t consider playing in Oakland. Butler, they knew they could get. Doesn’t make it a good deal, but I think it explains much of the thinking

9:30	Comment From Dugan What do we expect to see from Hosmer this year?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Double last year’s home run total

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Which was nine. Don’t be too impressed.

9:30	Comment From Bob Who would you give the 5th starter’s spot to, Norris or Sanchez?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Norris

9:32	Comment From Christian Yankees just acquired Chris Martin for cash considerations. Thoughts?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Throws hard, strike-thrower. Huge. Effective enough against righties and lefties. Handy bullpen depth to have around, but not someone to count on for an important role

9:33	Comment From Guest Miguel Cabrera’s health a major concern yet?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this issue is a major concern, but I do think it’s increasingly silly to think about Cabrera’s ability “when healthy”. These things aren’t going to stop happening. More often than not, for the rest of his career, he’s going to be a little banged up.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Still great, though

9:34	Comment From George is Curious Now that the A’s have acquired Zobrist, does that make you think differently of their overall offseason (so far)?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: I think the key was right after they traded Donaldson, they tried to sign Chase Headley. If you didn’t know that, you would’ve thought they were selling. But if you did, you would’ve realized it was an attempted reconstruction with no intention of giving up on 2015. The Zobrist trade fit what the plan had been all along. It’s a lot easier to argue that the A’s are pretty good, now, than it was a week ago, though

9:36	Comment From Phillies113 Hi Jeff! Could you please give me just one genuinely positive statement about the Phillies? It’s my birthday; I just need something.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies have beautiful uniforms

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: some of the time

9:37	Comment From The Dude Should teams with more offensive trending ballparks care more or less about defense than people in pitchers parks?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: It probably actually comes out about even. The fewer runs there are, the more individual runs matter, but then that’s true for defense, pitching, and hitting.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: This feels like a trick question of sorts.

9:38	Comment From Bobby Hill Should James Shields and Max Scherzer simply form a freelance 2-man baseball team, similar to the one in the “Ace of Diamonds” episode of King of the Hill?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: One of them would have to catch 🙁

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Shields would be the smarter choice for that responsibility

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Scherzer misses more bats

9:40	Comment From The Dude I need a good name for a workplace weight loss campaign team name. Suggestions?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Fat Murderers

9:40	Comment From Doug Assuming he becomes eligible, will Moncada pick a team based on money alone?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: It’s never money alone. It’s usually mostly money.

9:40	Comment From Tarvis Is Zobrist the most A’s player of all time?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Only for the recent A’s. Adam Dunn was the most A’s player of all time if you think of them as the A’s of 10 – 15 years ago

9:41	Comment From – Casey – The Dodgers recently announced that they are adding to each minor league coaching staff, ensuring at least one Spanish speaking coach on each team. Is this something that will become industry standard? And why is it only happening now?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Teams have never been short on interpreters or Spanish-speaking teammates. But, yeah, every coaching staff should be at least bilingual. No good reason not to be

9:42	Comment From George is Curious Following up on the Sano question, when do you expect him to debut in the majors?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: This coming September or the following May

9:43	Comment From Bill Was the power and SBs that Rendon displayed last year real or does he revert to a more 15-10 type rather than a 20-15 type?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I believe the power more than the steals

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He had all of one stolen-base attempt in the minors. Some of that would’ve been avoiding injury, and I think he’s quick enough to be opportunistic, but I don’t think Rendon has a future of running a whole lot

9:45	Comment From Brandon If Baez has a K% of under 35% and Bryant bats .260 do you think the cubs can win a wild card spot?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Cubs can win a wild card spot even if those players don’t do that

9:45	Comment From Mike Any reason to not run Howard out there if you’re the Phillies? Best case, he rebounds (a bit in platoon splits, mainly) and is worth slightly more than he is now. Worst case, he gets hurt and you pay all of the money instead of 97% of the money.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s just awkward, given what Amaro has already said about Howard on the record. This is more of a symbolism thing than a meaningful thing, but the Phillies are finally trying to turn the page and it would look weird to have Ryan Howard hanging around.

9:47	Comment From mtsw Dylan Bundy for Lucas Duda: who says no?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The Mets would be ecstatic.

9:47	Comment From jocephus do you think cards will get a “big name” pitcher (hamels, price, max, shields,etc)

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Increasingly so

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Price becomes real interesting if Scherzer returns to Detroit. I think the odds are St. Louis doesn’t get any of these guys, but I think those same odds are higher every few days

9:48

Comment From harmony
Philadelphia lefthander Cole Hamels (five years, $110 million) to Seattle for six years of shortstop Chris Taylor, five years of lefthander Roenis Elias, six years of lefthander Danny Hultzen and six years of outfielder Austin Wilson. What club says no? Would five years of shortstop Brad Miller in place of Taylor make a difference?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners wouldn’t touch that

9:49	Comment From Optimetstic Thoughts on Michael Cuddyer as a Met?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: In short: weird

9:50	Comment From jack stupid question here, but would a Giolito for Lindor trade be A)fair, B) help both teams?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that’s a stupid question!

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: It seems fair to me, more or less, but I don’t know that Cleveland would want to give up a close-to-ready shortstop for a (very talented) pitcher who hasn’t pitched above Single-A. The Indians already have a lot of pitching, so they don’t have an imminent need for Giolito, but I think they’d prefer more safety

9:51	Comment From PL78 Oakland better or worse than Seattle right now? Keep in mind, SEA has almost no depth to speak of.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners have more depth than you think

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It helps to have one of Chris Taylor and Brad Miller without a big-league job, in a sense

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mariners are better by a few games, but it’s close enough that it’s almost a coin flip

9:52	Comment From Mike Fan Projections (doing them for the first time this year) are super addicting. You guys should put a disclaimer with them, informing everyone of that when you open them up.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I love that people love them, because I love analyzing the results!

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Mookie Betts currently projected by fans for…5.5 WAR. That’s the other side of this.

9:53	Comment From Brandon Lets say the Cubs bring up Addison Russell in August. Where do you see the Cubs playing castro, baez and Russell?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I know this seems like a cop-out answer, but by August we’ll have a better idea of what Javier Baez is. So the decision should be made with that information already in hand

9:55	Comment From JJ Hey Jeff …. What are your thought RE: Joe Mauer? He’s only 31 but is his arrow pointing down?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: The hit tool’s still there, and he’s a good defensive first baseman who walks. But the power’s obviously eroded, lowering Mauer’s ability ceiling at this point. At his best right now, he’s a worse version of John Olerud. Still good enough to start for the time being, but he’s not going to get better

9:58	Comment From Tim How big or small would a team have to make park dimensions before MLB tried to intervene? Is there even a process for doing that? I’m picturing the Cardinals trying to set up their new riverfront stadium with Polo Grounds Center Field 2.0.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/offi…