Beachy Makes Braves Rotation
The rag to riches story of Brandon Beachy continues with the announcement he has won a job as a member of the Atlanta Braves’ rotation to start the 2011 season. Since joining the organization as an undrafted free agent in 2008, Beachy has been on an accelerated path through the system. After starting the ’08 season in rookie ball, he ended 2010 with the big league team. Now he finds himself a week away from his first opening day roster spot.
Beachy, 24, has worked his way quickly through the organization on the strength of fantastic peripherals at the minor league level. Without overpowering natural ability, the right-hander has been a control freak thus far. He allowed just 49 walks in more than 200 innings as a minor leaguer and owns a career K/BB of nearly five.
After posting a rather normal 7.5 K/9 in 2009, Beachy struck out 148 batters in 119 innings splitting time at the Double and Triple-A levels (11.2 K/9) in 2010. In his brief time as a major leaguer, he gathered 15 more strikeouts in 15 innings. As a relatively neutral pitcher according to statcorner.com, he has shown the ability to keep the ball in the yard throughout his career. He allowed just five balls to clear the fence last year, and just eight home runs total since turning pro.
Beachy has been able to achieve stellar strikeout numbers despite having rather pedestrian stuff. Although his fastball can touch the mid-90s, he generally works in the low-90s. His secondary offerings: a changeup and a curveball have been described as works in progress; the boys over at the Capitol Avenue Club, however, had some nice things to say about the off-speed pitch.
The change up featured pristine fastball separation at 81-84 MPH and had some fade. He had no trouble spotting it and used it as an effective out pitch both in the zone and below the knees. He generated several swing-and-misses with the change and relied on it heavily during the middle innings when his fastball/curve ball weren’t all there.
Even though he has shown some monster peripheral numbers, Beachy is still pretty raw when it comes to experience. In three seasons since joining the professional ranks he has made 79 total appearances. Of those appearances, just 24 have come in the form of starts –including three at the major league level. In terms of innings pitched, he has topped the century mark just once, pitching a combined 134.1 innings last season.
Because of this, his workload could become a concern at some point during the season. The fatigue point is interesting since of the reasons that probably helped him win a job this spring was to limit the workload and service time of Mike Minor. While Beachy may show more polish, Minor has more upside. On the other hand, depending on the severity of Jair Jurrjens injury, both could end up in the starting rotation come next week regardless of Minor’s recent demotion. Looking at the rest of the Braves’ rotation, there could also be some time to make up with a pair of 30-somethings in Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson anchoring the staff.
If everything goes well, the Braves’ player development team will have found another useful member of the pitching staff from an unlikely source. The Marcel projection of a sub 4.00 ERA seems optimistic; albeit in a projected small sample size of less than 70 innings. Even if Beachy gets bumped from the rotation by Minor or another talented Atlanta youngster, his stuff and experience in the bullpen could be an asset to a team that is ready to contend right now in whatever role they may need. Not bad for the undrafted kid from Kokomo, Indiana.
Tommy Rancel also writes for Bloomberg Sports and ESPNFlorida.com. Follow on twitter @TRancel
I love the Braves starting pitcher depth. From the big league club to veterans in the minors to the young stud prospects, this team is loaded with pitching for this year and the future.
This sounds like Ian Kennedy, part II. Both were able to strike out minor league players at an elite rate, and raced through their respective farm systems. I’m thinking Beachy’s going to be in for a rough adjustment period too.
Also, is there any reason that Beachy was selected for the team over Minor besides keeping Minor’s service time down?
Minor’s breaking ball needs work. He doesn’t have a tremendous amount of minor league experience. He seems to have somewhat of a fatigue issue and throwing less pitches per appearance could be a goal.
That said, I think the Braves feel Beachy helps them more in the next few weeks than Minor would and I believe the service time issue is probably the biggest reason.
Minor’s numbers in the majors last year did not tell the whole story. He had a start or two with good results, but lots and lots of hard hit outs. He really just did not look ready.
I think with frequent off days and probable rain delays the Braves can pick and choose to some degree when Beachy starts. Maybe to help keep Minor’s total innings down too? He kind of got gassed at the end of last year.
Any idea of Ian Kennedy’s command? Is average, above average? From everything I read Beachy has plus command. That could help him avoid extended periods of struggling.
If Beachy isn’t a prototypical Team Joy Squad member I don’t know what is.
This must be the FG article, more than any other I’ve ever read here, that begs for video highlight links.
First off, here he is last week talking about his start against the Tigers, where Fredi said he was incredible. http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13241175.
First of all, as he clearly states, he also throws a slider. This is just one example of how bad the scouting and media reports are on him.
According to McCann and others quoted recently, he has elite command, which explains how Fredi can say he looked incredible and Brandon thought he struggled the whole time.
Here is his first MLB start against the Nationals last year, called up in the middle of the pennant race: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12485227.
How often does Ian Kennedy use his FB as a strikeout pitch? This guy was making his first MLB start and challenging Adam Dunn with a 93 mph heater.
Those claiming he does not have a plus FB are just wrong. Very few MLB pitchers can put 92-92 where they want it within a “knat’s ass” as McCann artfully put it.
If you have not drafted yet in your league or if he is available, I’d highly recommend grabbing him now. The Mike Minor story is just bogus. Beachy is better. Period. Minor will get his shot in due course, but not because Beachy is a placeholder for him.
It’s a stretch to think that Beachy could put up a 2.4 win season and 4.33 FIP over 194 innings.
It’s a stretch to say that any pitcher will put up 194 innings regardless of effectiveness if they haven’t done it before. That is a much smaller list than you might think.
from what i saw, plus fastball in the low 90s with natural movement, plus changeup, curveball is okay. To go with the arsenal is plus plus command — looks like a future star. But it is only one start, any ML quality pitcher can throw like an ACE on one good day.
Brandons offspeed pitches include a plus change, curve and a newly added and possibly plus slider. His change is the nastiest pitch he has. Go back and watch his three starts last season and see how much he uses it, even on 3-2 counts Also, see how much guys miss it.
With him adding his possibly plus slider to his arsenal Brandon could have a huge impact with the Braves this season. Proof: last weekagainst an opening day like Tigers lineup. He threw 5 shutout, 1 hit innings. He talked about how he struggled early which he did. 2 walks and a balk in the 1st. But he pitched threw that and ended up throwing 4 more great innings.
Also, I think the whole Mike Minor having more upside thing is a bunch of bologna. Brandon has been a full time pitcher for 3 years. All of those being professionally. He pitched 20 innings his senior year of high school and even less his junior and none before that. He pitched a very limited number of innings in college. The moment he decides he wants to pitch full time, he goes to a summer league where he is found and signed. 2 1/2 years later he’s in the majors. So you tell me who has more upside. A guy that has been pitching for 3 years and is pitching well against major league batters, or a guy who has been pitching his whole life and hasn’t yet figured out his curveball?
look at the stats of Minor in last year in the major. Look carefully at the Ks BBs, and recall that he has not figured out his freaking curveball yet. This is what we called tremendous upside.
If he’s having that much problem figuring out his curveball, then he’ll probably never figure it out to that level that he would want.
Guys that “figure out” a pitch do so rather quickly. If not, go to a different pitch.
I mean that genuinely and without flippant, smart-arsed remarks.
There just isn’t much to “figure out”. You can either pretty much throw it how and where you want, or you can’t. A curveball requires a great deal of movement and/or control, otherwise it’s the easiest pitch to take deep.
He may be better off working on something easier to throw, like a cutter, that still offers movenent but without the lack of control or “figuring out”.
Completely biased, but I really like this take.
Your last paragraph is very good, IMO.
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Here’s what I don;t understand …
Beachy puts up the peripherals with “pedestrian stuff”.
Casey Kelly on the other hand has something like “17 major league quality, or plus, pitches” but can’t dominate AA, even as a younger pitcher.
I would think that it is incredibly difficult to “luck” your way into good BB/9 and K/9 numbers.
Cliff Lee has what would be described as “pedestrian stuff” with outstanding control.
You can do quite well in MLB with good command of a fastball-changeup combo, and can mix in something that “bends” enough to make the batter’s eyes move around.
Lee is helped by being left-handed, which makes his “pedestrian” stuff less pedestrian
Wow, there’s some serious fanboys. I wanna see that release point graph after a few more starts…
Anyways, if you don’t throw a slider in 15IP, i have trouble believing it’ll come out of your ass as plus.
Anyways, let’s just compare Beachy to James Shields and get it out of the way.
Well when youre learning to pitch it takes time. You could say he pulled his 94 mph fastball change and curve out of his ass too. And it looks like he got two of those at a plus. He’s been working on his slider since last season but is now comfortable enough to start using it in games, after working on it all offseason. I’m also pretty sure I said possibly plus. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
It’s impossible to derive any kind of conclusion, so waiting and seeing is always the best option. I think if you’re predicting 3 plus pitches, you’re drinking the koolaid, but anything’s possible.
Is there a way I could get your scouting report on Tim Collins too?
I think Beachy and Minor can both possibly be very good major league pitchers. I just don’t like the guys that are hating on a guy who has made a big league team. They can keep hating, but what has Beachy done to not deserve it? Tonight he went 6 innings with no runs, 6 Ks, 2 hits, and 1 BB. He also hit 97 on the gun.
“The Marcel projection of a sub 4.00 ERA seems optimistic”
If i’m remembering correctly, Marcel isn’t really supposed to be used for players with very little major league experience. It just takes their really small sample from the majors, and none of their minor league performances, and weights it heavily toward league-average (or maybe it’s replacement level, can’t remember). So don’t read too much into a Marcel projection for a prospect
I am not saying he is or ever will be this guy, but the changeup-fastball combo with plus-plus control makes me think back to Maddux. He didn’t have blistering stuff, but it goes to show you can be an elite pitcher if you have great control of your pitches and the smarts to know where to put them.
Smarts and control can make up for a lack of “stuff.” But “stuff” is worthless if you can’t control it and don’t know how to use it. Well, now I’ve gone from feeling good about Beachy to being concerned about Kimbrel!
Jeff Suppan pitched 2500 major league innings by just having pretty good control and “pedestrian stuff”. Bret Saberhagen racked up 61+ WAR with outstanding control.
This site, due to the nature of it’s WAR for pitchers, should be all over control pitchers, given the coponent of FIP.
If you don’t walk many and can supress HRs to a reasonable degree, fWAR will be outstanding (provided innings pitched). If you can do all that, plus strike out your share of batters … well, then you’re in the Hall of Norris.
Bud Norris?
Just another story of the Braves superior scouting system. Braves could end up trading both Lowe/JJ in the offseason and still have too much starting pitching. So amazing.
Even as big of a Braves homer as I am, I still can’t see Beachy as having ace type upside. I was impressed how he “gutted” some performances against Philly at the end of 2010. I am just not ready to put him above Minor’s ceiling. Minor throws as hard as Beachy with the same movement and may even have a better changeup. Oh yeah, his slider/curve is filthy and he is lefthanded. This isn’t a knock on Beachy but once Minor was throwing it in the mid to lower 90’s consistently his upside skyrocketed to a top of the rotation pitcher.
I do understand the argument for Minor and I like him. My position on Beachy-Minor is:
1) Laziness and groupthink have led smart people to repeat over and over that Beachy does not have good stuff, which is simply not true; and
2) In addition to the very good point that Minor has trouble commanding his “best” pitch (sorry, but if you can’t command it, at the MLB level it’s not even an average pitch), I am skeptical of the velo jump. As were many people early last year about Minor’s velo jump, then late in the season it dropped off again. I’m not saying it’s not there, but there’s a reason why he threw 88-90 in college and to see that kind of very large velo jump, especially for a lefthander after he’s been through 3 years of an elite college program and summer leagues, I really think that begs for a wait and see approach. I could be wrong, but I don’t remember reading last year that the Braves drafted Minor because they though there was 7 mph of velo there, just that they thought he’d be very good at what he was at Vandy plus some development. Before everybody bought into the velo jump last year, Minor was not much of a prospect. Now, overnight, he’s a jewel for doing something that is very rare. How is this different than Beachy coming out of nowhere?
My point is I don’t think the skepticism is being applied consistently here.
I completely agree Paul. Beachy strikes out 41 in 41 2/3 innings at AAA. He then gets called up to the show and K’s 15 in 15 ML innings and the scouting report on him is a 4 – 5th starter who lacks an “out” pitch. I think his K/9 proves he’s making outs from some pitch. His command/control is plus and he shows enough velocity and movement on his pitches to be a number 2. Reminds me a little of Zack Greinke.
Greinke can throw 3-4 mph harder and turn around and throw his curve even slower.
AA: Greinke does top out at 97, but as noted here above, Beachy was clocked there in his last start. The avg. diff is ~2 mph. Greinke does, however, have both a 2 seamer and a 4 seamer that are very effective. The curveball is now his 5th pitch, nobody swings at it anymore, and it only get whiffs 6% of the time. It’s just a novelty at this point. He won the Cy with a sick slider, which is now his bread and butter.
Now that I’ve accurately described Greinke’s stuff, I’m buying more into that future comp for Beachy.
Wasn’t saying it was a perfect comparison but Greinke’s average FB is “only” 92.7 MPH.
For a non-Braves fan, this org is very frustrating in that they always seem to have very good prospects to plug into their already solis roster.
I think there are good parallels btw ATL and BOS. ATL traded away Wainwright but still have a host of young pitchers to go with their effective vets.
They always seem to have an “in house” solution for a problem.
Here’s the thing:
I don’t think the Braves have THAT many more in-house outta nowhere prospects than anyone else — I think they give them a better chance to shine.
This isn’t Beachy (he’s better than this description), but — every organization has a handful of minor leaguers that have pitched for five plus years, shining at every level with sparkly ERAs, WHIPs, and K/BB ratios. The pitchers that do it with superior control and no killer out pitch rarely get taken seriously. Some organizations care about results, some care more about the process.
Prado/Beachy/Venters can be considered out of nowhere recently unless you follow the Braves system. What other team can say that?
Just look at the roster.
Chipper
B-Mac
Prado
Heyward
Freeman
Jair
Hanson
Venters
Kimbrel
Young
Hicks
Moylan
Beachy
All homegrown talent, all on the roster. This has to tell you that the Braves are good at developing talent. More than half their roster is homegrown.
I don’t get the “velocity = stuff” mentality that has sprung up. It seems rather anti-saber, not to mention gets people away from truly effective pitchers.
Maddux had ridiculous stuff, but rarely threw above 92-93 at his peak, and ended his career as a still effective pitcher throwing 85. Halladay doesn’t just gas people to get his job done. Neither does Haren.
This guy Beachy, who I had no idea existed until this post, looks like he has ridiculous stuff – just not the hardest. BFD.
Beachy sounds like me. Not nearly enough love from the prospect hounds … nice numbers in the upper minors….couldn’t crack BA’s top 100 worth a damn…but I’ve had a nice few years so far, eh?
Yeah, tell me about it.
Jeez, Mr. Shields. I asked for a comparison to you on the 25th and you didn’t respond until the 27th. In my opinion, that’s disrespectful.
Anyways — I’m still curious as to why Beachy doesn’t seem to have a discernible two-seamer. If I recall correctly — i’m totally not going to check — each one of these guys can cut and sink their fastballs.
Am I in the right place? Is this the “drastically underrated SP prospects made good” support group?
Yeah, you in the right place, bro.
I’m in the right place as well?
Way to ruin a perfectly good joke, Dontelle. Remember when you started walking everyone and saw your SwStr% drop 3% and your zone% drop like 10%. That’s when you were kicked out of the club.