Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/13/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna let questions pile up for, call it, 5 minutes

Ben Clemens: I ran into a database construction snag that I’m juuuuust about finished working on

Ben Clemens: Okay, I think I’m maybe done there

Ben Clemens: let’s get going

Davy Andrews: Hi Ben!

Ben Clemens: Hey Davy

Idiotic Failson: On the heels of the extraordinarily bleak ZIPs forecast for the White Sox in general and especially the bullpen, doesn’t it make sense for that team to just take as many flyers on low end castoffs as possible to see what they can get to stick? If your bullpen is literally below replacement level it seems like you have to be trying to be that bad.

Ben Clemens: For sure. But to be fair, they’re doing a lot of this

Ken: How do the A’s fit Rooker, Soderstrom, Bleday, and Kurtz into the same lineup everyday? Soderstrom can’t play catcher effectively. Bleday can’t play centerfield at all. Rooker probably shouldn’t play the field at all. Is one of Bleday or Soderstrom bound to be traded once Kurtz is ready? Any chance that Soderstrom could handle left field?

Ben Clemens: I think that the A’s will cross that bridge when they get to it. Rooker could maybe handle a corner outfield spot but maybe not; I think it depends on how much last year was impacted by injury

Ben Clemens: But just so we’re all clear, Nick Kurtz was drafted less than a year ago, and has exactly 15 plate appearances above A ball

Ben Clemens: if it turns out that Soderstrom, Rooker, and Bleday are all such good players that you want to squeeze them into the lineup, there’ll be some way to do it or they’ll manage to trade one

Ben Clemens: but this is classic ‘assuming all of our 50/50 bets hit we’re going to be over-staffed’

Ben Clemens: like, yeah. but probably one of these guys won’t pan out

Bart: Hi Ben!

Ben Clemens: Hey Bart

Carson: I feel in the minority with this, but do you genuinely believe in a path forward for Nolan Gorman in St. Louis? Feels tailor-made for a team like Seattle to acquire some pitching, with Donovan at 3B and Wetherholt eventually at 2B. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens: Perhaps… but okay, what kind of pitching are you getting back for Gorman

Ben Clemens: everyone wants to trade Seattle their middling young players for like, Logan Gilbert

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the M’s would even consider trading Bryan Woo for Gorman, though

Tacoby Bellsbury: What do you miss most from your pre-professional writing days?

Ben Clemens: I miss having a real office with coworkers who did similar but not completely overlapping stuff

Ben Clemens: It was nice that I could talk shop during the day, and not in a ‘we’re doing the same project’ way

Ben Clemens: I feel like I got a lot of very good ideas from just bs’ing with friends

Ben Clemens: To be clear, that’s a pretty minor thing and I love my job

Ben Clemens: but I really did like that feeling

Sirras: Ben, will Seattle trade me their best cost-controlled pitcher for my team’s castoffs and nontender candidates?

Ben Clemens: You? yes

drplantwrench: hi ben! do you ever go by Benji?

Ben Clemens: nah

Bosoxforlife: MLB recently had a segment about the best free agent signings of all time. Neither Kenny or Russo mentioned the greatest FA , nothing comes close to David Ortiz.

Ben Clemens: I think the issue here is that he was never REALLY a free agent in the way we think about them

Ben Clemens: or well, I supose he was in 2011?

Ben Clemens: No, actually now that I’m looking at it, that’s not true

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t think that signing a non-guaranteed deal counts. Like, he signed a one-year $1.25 million deal. Can’t really credit the rest of his career to that deal

Carson: I hear you on Gorman, I am more pessimistic than most on him and wouldn’t expect a ton. Logan Evans + a name or two would intrigue me enough.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I mean maybe that would work? I’m not really sure. I’m generally a Gorman pessimist too, though

jaygray007: Just a followup on one of your answers to someone else… is “Rooker might have been injured, and this might have kept him out of OF duty” an actual thing?  or are you just musing?

Ben Clemens: musing

Ben Clemens: or well, I’m not musing that he was injured

Ben Clemens: he had surgery after the year

Guest: How does this upcoming J15 class compare to previous years classes? Who are some names we should look out for?

Ben Clemens: Not really my area of expertise, but I bet you Eric Longenhagen woul dhave ansers for you

Guy: Is Matt McLain’s time in the infield over? Should he be valued as an OF moving forward?

Ben Clemens: We

Ben Clemens: We’re gonna have to see in spring training

Ben Clemens: I’m very surprised that this is the way they’re going, they must have really strong views on the likelihood of injury aggravation

Ben Clemens: because he was an excellent defender in the infield. Maybe they think he’ll be spectacular in the outfield too but I’m a bit confused

Booney: Do you think the Yankees regret adding Bellinger during their post-Soto frenzy of moves? Bregman and Alonso are still available and it seems pretty likely at least one of those guys would’ve gone to NYY for a similar AAV and not too many years. Perhaps even on Fried, too, it feels like the Yankees misjudged just how robust free agent demand would be a little further down in the market.

Ben Clemens: why?

Ben Clemens: like… they could just sign someone else and put Bellinger in the outfield

Ben Clemens: they literally got him for free

Ben Clemens: I guess that would move Dominguez? or like, maybe Stanton loses a efw DH AB’s? But I’m just kinda confused here

Ben Clemens: ah sorry

Ben Clemens: brain freeze here

Ben Clemens: they already got Goldy and Bellinger is gonna play center

Ben Clemens: so now I’m even a little more confused by your question

Ben Clemens: it’s not like they can’t sign Bregman, and if anyone’s making Alonso worse, it’s Goldschmidt

Matt: Hey Ben, love these chats! I was reading the Mets ZIPS projections and Brett Baty is getting a decent amount of love, looks like he’s projecting for about 2 WAR. is there anything in his profile that indicates why? He’s looked great in AAA at times, but has looked lost three straight seasons at the MLB level

Ben Clemens: Probably a question for Dan Szymborski, but ZiPS has consistently loved Baty

Bencle Mens: What is OOPSY

Ben Clemens: There is an article about this coming out soon

prono: How crazy is it to think that Kristian Campbell might just be better at baseball than Alex Bregman right now and the red sox really don’t need to give bregman 7/175 or whatever … ? Bregman had a .315 obp last year…

Ben Clemens: So, two separate questions

Ben Clemens: how crazy is it to think that campbell would outperform Bregman in the majors this year? Definitely crazy

Ben Clemens: I’m not saying it can’t happen, but that’s very clearly not an even odds bet

Ben Clemens: Bregman’s offensive production was 18% above average last year and didn’t look wildly fluky. That’d make him one of the best regulars on the 2024 Red Sox, who notably employ Kristian Campbell and didn’t call him up

Ben Clemens: Also I think the Sox might need Campbell in left or at second

Ben Clemens: I guess my point is that I’m not in love with the idea of Bregman to the Sox because I don’t know how it’d go with moving Devers, but I don’t think it’s a case of blocking someone

Bosoxforlife: Do you think the Red Sox are the favorites for Bregman? I keep having this dream of him playing 3rd, Devers moving to 1st and the team putting Casas and Rafaela and a middling prospect in a package for a solid player or pitcher.

Ben Clemens: I think they probably are the favorites if Devers is into it

Ben Clemens: I’m just not sure he is, I guess we’ll see

Ben Clemens: Casas is a very interesting case. I like hijm quite a bit but he hasn’t really produced

Ben Clemens: so I dunno what he’d be able to get in trade, but like, I do like him

Bill Lumbergh: What program/language do you utilize for databases?

Ben Clemens: In this case, I’m setting up a sql database of my own (i generally just read data from teh FG database) for a project I’m doing

Ben Clemens: but normally Python

Roman: How much of the Padres off-season depends on Roki’s decision? Would his decision to take his talents to SoCal mean they double down on the roster? Conversely, without him do they do a mini rebuild by trading off the expiring contracts?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, this sounds right to me

Ben Clemens: I think that flipping Cease seems quite likely if they don’t hit on Sasaki

Ben Clemens: I’m really interested in teh Sasaki deal for the record

jaygray007: Are there any “projected-to-be-cheap” FA’s out there who you think could be pretty good if you squint a bit?   A few of my picks are Grichuk (his career 93 wrc+ vs rhp isnt total dog excrement, and had a small sample of RHP success last yr. obviously mashes lefties. non-terrible defense) and Jose Iglesias (if he can physically still play short, which i assume he can).

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical that Iglesias could handle a whole season at short, but he’s an okay option

Ben Clemens: JD Martinez and see if he’s not cooked/ Mark Canha is just quietly solid

Ben Clemens: Jesse Winker if you only want a lefty

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: If a QO’d player signs for a deal that could exceed >$50M depending on options/opt outs, does the player’s former team get a comp A or comp B pick? Jason Martinez wasn’t sure but thought it could depend on if it’s a player option (comp A) or club option (comp B).

Ben Clemens: my read agrees with Jason’s but I can’t find exact documentation anywhere

Guest: What are the OOPSY projections? Sorry if I missed an explanation somewhere

Ben Clemens: An explainer will come up soon

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: I know it’s been taken as a given (and probably reported on), but are the Padres trading Cease? He’s no longer cheap in arb 3 but still way below market value, and they’re down one Joe Musgrove.

Ben Clemens: I think they only will if they look at 2025 and find they don’t expect to compete

drplantwrench: fascinating that you use Python! I do python every day, do you have any projects on github for amateur baseball comp sci guys to use?

Ben Clemens: I have a small database on GitHub, bclemens6

Ben Clemens: That said, there are some good resources on twitter and bluesky for folliwing people who do this more rigidly than me

Ben Clemens: Nick Wan of the Reds does some cool coding bootcamp for baseball things

Ben Clemens: rigorous, not rigid, for the record

JJP: How toast is Kris Bryant? Is he at all fantasy relevant, even in Only leagues?

Ben Clemens: I might still go for a yo on him, particularly in NL only

Ben Clemens: but like, late round in draft or cheap in aucdtion

Ben Clemens: the most likely outcome is that he’s unplayable

Brian: I have a favorite team (not the Reds) but also follow MLB generally. Am I wrong or do the Reds always have too many or not enough infielders at all times?

Ben Clemens: I feel that way too

Ben Clemens: sometimes it’s at the same time

Miguel: Do you feel that all the criticism of Mike Elias this offseason is warranted? It sounds like Burnes was always going to sign with a west coast team close to his family, and Baltimore seems very likely to trade for a front end starter at some point.

Ben Clemens: I guess I’d say that if you’re criticizing Elias for specifically this offseason, that feels off-base

Ben Clemens: if you’re criticizing him for a general pattern, well

Ben Clemens: the general pattern is not great

Ben Clemens: Like the O’s have gone up payroll a lot this offseason

Ben Clemens: they’re clearly willing to spend

Ben Clemens: but it’s for: Tyler O’Neill, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Andrew Kittredge

Ben Clemens: oh and Gary Sanchez

Ben Clemens: it just feels to me like a weird way to manage a team that is getting its best-value years out of two incredible prospects right now

Ben Clemens: and it’s somewhat of a pattern – Elias is a big fan of small moves and accumulating

Ben Clemens: he’s very good at running a baseball team. but c’mon, aren’t O’s fans a little bit worried that he only has one move and isn’t willing to make a big, franchise-altering swing at a pitcher to pair with the generational hitting talent they’ve accumulated

Alec: How do you feel about the Tigers offseason? Given the current roster construction and the finish to last season, do you think it’s best to be more patient and make smaller depth additions, or do you think they should be making a bigger splash to try and bump up a tier from where they currently rank in the division/AL?

Ben Clemens: I’m actually okay with what they’re doing. I don’t think that they HAVE to break the bank this year, and they got a free agent who I think was extremely undervalued in Gleyber Torres

Ben Clemens: if there’s someone they see as a core piece, they should absolutely go get that person

Ben Clemens: but I don’t think they’re a team in a ‘you must spend regardless of who’s available’ situation

Ben Clemens: like, even if the Jays are down on Jeff Hoffman, I don’t think they had a lot of choice in the matter

Ben Clemens: they needed to sign an elite reliever

Nate: People are giving the Orioles some well-deserved grief but let’s not forget that the Twins have yet to sign a single major-league deal in a winnable division

Ben Clemens: Oh that’s worse for sure

Ben Clemens: I do think that a lot of the O’s grief is about their multi-year arc more so than 2024-2025 winter

Ben Clemens: the Twins tv deal collapse and associated team spending freeze is pretty gross though

Sam: How do you balance your fandom with your knowledge of optimal baseball strategy? Asking as a Mets fan whose torn between wanting the Mets to pay whatever it takes to keep Alonso and knowing much more than a 3 year deal is going to get ugly

Ben Clemens: I basically throw it all away when I feel strongly as a fan

Ben Clemens: so this is based on other sports

Ben Clemens: in baseball, I gave up hardcore fandom to do this as my job

Ben Clemens: but in other sports, I’m guided by optimal strategy unless i feel strongly. and if I feel strongly, well, sports are about making me happy

wheelhouse: speaking of bellinger: what’s your read on what he’s physically capable of at this stage of his career? not like slash line predictions, but is the bat speed he once had gone gone or in reserve after a change in approach? is his defense far enough along in decline that he shouldn’t be in centerfield?

Ben Clemens: I think the bat speed is probably gone

Ben Clemens: like… he was 13th percentile in the first year of measuring

Ben Clemens: and even at his peak, I feel like he was more a lift-and-pull guy than a pure bat speed type

Ben Clemens: footspeed, I’m willing to give him a chance to bounce back

Ben Clemens: I think that he also has elite defensive instincts, which can make average athleticism play up

Ben Clemens: I could be wrong, of course. but I’d be willing to take the chance if I were the Yankees

Theo be Praised: I am a Michael Busch skeptic; the batted ball data doesn’t look great and I wonder if he’ll hit enough to contribute at 1B long-term.  Should I be concerned?

Ben Clemens: oh yeah I feel the same

Ben Clemens: Obviously, I could be wrong

Ben Clemens: I

Ben Clemens: I’m wrong all the time

Ben Clemens: but I am not a big fan of his profile

Bosoxforlife: Pete Alonso’s situation is puzzling. All things considered he has far more value to the Mets than any other team. He is as much the face of the franchise as the incomparable Lindor and has tremendous marketing value. His consistently low BABIP, ridiculously so in 2023, seems bizarre for a player who hits the ball as hard as he does. In the equally bizarre world of today’s contracts he is a man I wouldn’t hesitate to pay him a lot more than Joc Peterson and many others who are reaping windfalls this off-season.

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think he should stay on the Mets

Thank you for the chat!: Arenado to Yanks, Stroman to As, what are the missing pieces for a three way trade?

Ben Clemens: Oh, this is a fun one

Ben Clemens: okay, so the Cards eat some of Arenado’s salary, let’s say

Ben Clemens: but not all, the Yankees are more willing to make this deal if they offlay Stroman’s deal

Ben Clemens: The A’s chip in a minor prospect who heads to St. Louis. The Yankees chip in a 45FV type

Ben Clemens: I could see that working

Theo be Praised: Do you think the Cubs will regret that Kyle Tucker trade?  He’s a great player, but only 1 year…..and Cam Smith might be a dude

Ben Clemens: I definitely do not

Ben Clemens: do you know how hard teams try to get players as good as Kyle Tucker?

Alf: From a strictly financial perspective, is there any way to justify Roki Sasaki’s decision to come to the US now versus waiting until he could come over as a free agent? Is it possible he could make up enough money off the field that it’s not a huge financial loss?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, here’s an argument for you

Ben Clemens: Sasaki isn’t a Yamamoto level complete package

Ben Clemens: he’d get a decent deal, no doubt, but not record setting

Ben Clemens: by coming now, he’s going to hit free agency younger, and he’ll get to pick the team he wants to develop with

Ben Clemens: so he hits free agency at 29 and gets a bag?

Ben Clemens: that seems feasible

Mr. E: Is it better news that the Jays signed somebody or worse news that no one else liked his physical apparently?

Ben Clemens: better news imo

Brad Towner: Hey Ben, kind of a specific question here. I was recently reading your top 50 players in terms of trade value, I was curious why a guy like Pablo Lopez wouldn’t at least get an honorable mention. 18 MM AAV for the next 3 years. He is only 28, and projects to be nearly a 4 win player next season.

Ben Clemens: becuase there are just so many players

Ben Clemens: he’s been an HM before

Ben Clemens: I think there were like… 85 players or something in my top 50 counting honorable mentions

Bart: I daydream of Sasaki going to KC or DC and shaking up the entire baseball US world.

Ben Clemens: hell yeah, that’d be fun

Matt: Do you see any more moves from the DBacks this offseason?  Maybe dealing an arm like Gallen or Montgomery?

Ben Clemens: I mean, definitely not dealing Gallen

Ben Clemens: you don’t sign Corbin Burnes and then trade Gallen

Ben Clemens: trading Montgomery, yeah, they’d do that

Rayy: Would you trade Jackson Holliday for a Roman Anthony/Walker Jenkins type top prospect who has not yet debuted? Wondering what your thoughts are on the effect a disappointing debut can have on top prospect’s overall value.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think I would, but I feel like this is a classic case of paralysis around other players

Ben Clemens: like non-org players

Ben Clemens: I think I’d be too afraid of what red flags the other guy had

Ben Clemens: though look, I’m very low on Holliday relative to consensus and have been for a while

Steve O: Do you think the Yankees are cheap? Relatively. They make the most revenue in MLB yet they are rarely ever 1st in payroll for the last several years. Typically 3rdish. Now they need to offload Marcus Stroman’s contract to add an infielder? If they aren’t going to compete with the Mets and Dodgers, they should just sell for billions and count their money. Wishful thinking I know, but it’s frustrating as a fan.

Ben Clemens: I mean, I generally agree with this

Ben Clemens: but not to an extreme

Ben Clemens: like, Stroman is relatively unimportant to their goals this year and if it’s going to keep them flexible to move him for a star, do it

Guest: Speaking of Sasaki, you mentioned him choosing a team to develop with. Do you still believe player dev. is ahead in MLB vs NPB? And do you think talent out of Japan is higher or lower than the US especially with other sports crowding the US prospect market?

Ben Clemens: I definitely do not have a strong view on this

Ben Clemens: I think that picking where you go for development is a huge deal, though. I have no particular view on the Marines development group (my only views on the Marines are that I went to a game there when I was in Tokyo and absolutely loved it, 10/10 experience)

Ben Clemens: but they drafted him, he didn’t pick them

Chip: So, is Hoffman the Jays closer?

Ben Clemens: mmmm…. we have him there on our depth chart

Ben Clemens: I think it makes sense, with some consideration to Garcia as well. Maybe they’ll both get opportunities

Brad Towner: do you see the reds possibly trading Nick Martinez after trading for Singer?

Ben Clemens: I could see that

Ben Clemens: They seem to be pretty focused on maximizing their payroll and roster

Ben Clemens: and I get the sense that they were a little surprised and delighted he accepted the offer

Justin: Are you surprised about the lack of buzz around Ha-Seong Kim’s free agency? He seems like a $100 million guy if it weren’t for the injury

Ben Clemens: I mean, I shoved him very high up the free agency list

Ben Clemens: I definitely agree with you

Guest: Bo bichette had a really bad year even considering he missed half the season. Do you think the bounce back is likely?

Ben Clemens: I think that a bounceback is reasonable

Ben Clemens: I’d bet on it?

Ben Clemens: Bichette is just an incredibly streaky player and I don’t really think his core skills have changed

Ben Clemens: fwiw our projection systems agree with me too

Ben Clemens: ZiPS is the low one by far and has him with a 112 OPS+, 3 WAR

Wags: Brady SInger a good fit of GABP?

Ben Clemens: man, good question

Ben Clemens: the grounders, yes

Ben Clemens: the fact that he doesn’t strike anyone out, not at all

Ben Clemens: i think it’ll net out okay

Ben Clemens: and that he’s more or less a neutral fit

Ken: How concerned should A’s fans be about Severino pitching in Sacramento? Outside of Citi Field, his ERA was 5.

Ben Clemens: nah, I wouldn’t worry about that specifically

Ben Clemens: not a huge split in K/BB things, he ran a .270 BABIP at home with really juiced things but similar FIP and xFIP (better xFIP on the road actually)

Ben Clemens: which* really juiced things

Steve O: If you’re the Red Sox do you prefer to extend Crochet now, or to wait and see if he can stay healthy for more than one season?

Ben Clemens: I’d extend him now if he were willing to take a reasonable deal

Ben Clemens: b/c honestly, I think he should accept a discount for certainty, and that’s a great position the Sox are in

Ben Clemens: if you wait, you’re just getting market rate one way or another. why not monetize the fact that you get to develop many players over many years and assume a little bit of their risk (will he get hurt?) in exchange for a deal

Ben Clemens: that’s an everyone happy situation in my eyes

John B: Luis Matos posted an .880 ops in the Venezuelan winter league and won ROY. I know he struggled last year but he’s just turning 23 and has shown a ton of promise at times in the past. Do you think he could be poised for a breakout season?

Ben Clemens: look, I’ve been wrong before

Ben Clemens: I definitely told people to keep Matos over Ramos in fantasy last year b/c I thought his spot was pretty locked up with JHL on the IL

Ben Clemens: but uh…. no, this time I’m out

Ben Clemens: I’m sure a few hustle doubles and a nice defensive play will chnage my mind again in May, but nah, I think that the outfield is too crowded and he’s had too many chances

Ben Clemens: at best I think he needs a change of scenery

Bosoxforlife: I am trying to figure out the AL East. First of all, I can’t put my finger on why the Blue Jays stink. I haven’t been able to answer my question whether the Yankees are better or worse after losing 1/2 of one the better one-two acts of all-time. The Orioles appear to be blowing their opportunity to get what they should from the hoard of prospects they have and the Rays are playing in a spring training venue. The Red Sox just might be ready to ascend.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, good year for the Red Sox for sure. Also a good year for the Jays to ascend, imo

Ben Clemens: I agree with you that I don’t get why they’re bad. maybe that means they’ll just be good

Baloo: Biased, but wouldn’t Sasaki in Detroit be an incredibly fun outcome?  Jobe and Sasaki behind Skubal would be cool af.  And they have a very good reputation for pitching development, so maybe it’s not just a pipe dream?  JK, I know it won’t happen. 🙁

Ben Clemens: yeah I would be into it

Sir Nerdlington: Sure, sure offseason isn’t over, but the Cubs have one of the largest payroll drops on the heels of trading for Kyle Tucker feels horrifically short-sighted. Talk me off the ledge, please.

Ben Clemens: maybe they’ll get Sasaki, get encouraged and sign Flaherty, then somehow luck into one more contributor from a team looking to shake up their roster. Also the NLC will be bad, and the Cubs will cruise to the division title

Matt: Thoughts on Josh Naylor for 2025? Will he continue his 2024 performance?

Ben Clemens: the odds seem good given that he’s basically been this player for three years in a row

Ben Clemens: I think that he’ll continue to be really bad on the bases and defensively, but hit 20% above average thanks to some power and a low strikeout rate. I’m into it

Ben Clemens: that’s a great above avearge 1b right there

Ben Clemens: in a very standard way, too

Ben Clemens: i think it’s no surprise that the projection systems all peg him right around 2 wins

Justin: Who do you think comprise a larger percentage of A’s fans/watchers this year. Former Oakland A’s fans or future Las Vegas A’s fans.

Ben Clemens: former oakland a’s fans

Ben Clemens: maybe that’ll change in a year or two

Ben Clemens: I think there is very little A’s buzz in Vegas yet

Ben Clemens: alright, I gotta get back to spreadsheeting

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week, everyone, and let’s talk baseball again soon. And maybe lunch too, I feel like the person who asks the lunch question has been conspicuously absent

Ben Clemens: takeout sandwich from somewhere nearby today, in case you’re curious, last night’s dinner didn’t have leftovers