Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/25/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, happy Monday

Ben Clemens: Seems like we’re back into the ‘no big signings’ portion of the offseason for a bit now that Springer has signed, but there are plenty of minor things going on

Ben Clemens: And let’s be honest, you’re reading a chat about baseball in the middle of January, minor things are probably something you’re interested in

Ben Clemens: So let’s chat!

Milton Bwadley: Why don’t the Rockies rebuild?

Ben Clemens: Really good question that I don’ know the answer to

Ben Clemens: Last year they thought (or at least Dick Monfort thought) they’d win 94 games!

Ben Clemens: It could be that they just disagree with the premise that they need to rebuild

YardGoat: Over/Under 83 wins for NL Central Division winner in 2021

Ben Clemens: Over

Ben Clemens: Even though I might not project any of the teams higher than that, someone will spike it

Ben Clemens: At 88 I’m not sure which way I’d go

Appa Yip Yip: So Brad Hand got himself a 15% raise (1 m buyout, 10.5 contract) because teams were trying to be cheap and galaxy brain their way through the off-season. Do any front offices take a lesson from this? Maybe just … get the good player when he’s available?

Ben Clemens: Not really clear. He got himself a 15% raise, but teams got some information too

Ben Clemens: They got to see what players signed for over 1.5 months

Ben Clemens: As it turns out, signings are mostly beating expectations

Ben Clemens: I think a lot of front offices will convince themselves they had a good process/bad outcome situation here

Ben Clemens: But overall, I agree with you that teams are a little too cute about trying to grab little edges

Swifty Mcvay: Good Day Ben. I know the Padres Signed Kim Ha-Seong for just Four years but do they control him through arbitration for 2 aditional years after that contract is up just like any first year player?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t looked at Kim’s contract specifically, but contracts can include a clause that requires teams to relinquish a player’s rights and let them elect free agency after the contract is over

Ben Clemens: Look at Miles Mikolas for a good example

Ben Clemens: He technically only has 4 years of service time but he would have hit free agency after his first 2-year deal with the Cards

Kyle: Imagine Marlins get Benintendi and Phillies bring back Realmuto. Is there a single team in the NL East that doesn’t go over .500 in that scenario?

Ben Clemens: Yes, the Marlins probably

Ben Clemens: It’s really hard for every team to go above .500 even if they’re all good

Ben Clemens: But also, are the Marlins THAT good?

Tigers Fan: Do you think any of these 3 players will have bounce back year (ie. All Star caliber numbers)…Cody Bellinger, Gleyber Torres, Shohei Ohtani?

Ben Clemens: Bellinger

Ben Clemens: Also I’d believe either of the other two, I’m just most confident in Bellinger

Ben Clemens: As the best defender of the group, he has the lowest bar to putting up All Star level numbers

Ben Clemens: As a bonus, he’s the best hitter in the group

Ben Clemens Replacement: I have taken over Fangraphs and will chat every day.

Ben Clemens: My robot replacement is causing trouble again apparently. I will not be chatting every ady!

Rockies: Better question: Why don’t the Rockies fire the whole FO?

Ben Clemens: My guess is that they don’t think the front office is performing poorly

Ben Clemens: I’m pretty sure that if you asked the Rockies front office what they thought of their chances, privately

Ben Clemens: They’d be like ‘yeah look this team is not equipped to compete’

Bring Back Mookie: Like that Ottavino trade for the Sox? Doesn’t seem like much downside

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think it makes sense. Skeptical that the Red Sox are favorites to make the playoffs without another move, but they got a competent reliever for free in exchange for being friendly with the Yankees

Ben Clemens: What’s not to like about that?

Old Man 603: Is Ottavino the clear closer in Boston, or does Cora stick with Barnes?

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure, to be honest. I think you’ll just have to wait and see what Cora tells beat writers

Ben Clemens: I’d be worried about Ottavino’s splits vs lefties if I were him

Ben Clemens: Although I suppose I’d be worried about Barnes’ enduring Barnesiness

Larry B: Over/ under on HJ Ryu IPs this year?

Ben Clemens: ooooof

Ben Clemens: 150

Ben Clemens: Gotta hope for an over

Mike Rizzo: Hey Ben, I was wondering why the Nats aren’t being linked to Wong/La Stella to allow a shift of Castro to a more utility role. Is Castro a legit starter any more? Or is the hope for Garcia to step up and split ABs?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that Castro is a legit everyday starter anymore, personally

Ben Clemens: I mean, he could be

Ben Clemens: I’d just prefer not to have to count on it

Ben Clemens: I’m surprised they haven’t been linked to a 2B upgrade given that they’re abundant this year

Ottavino #0: This trade is scary for what it says about my elbow.

Ben Clemens: I’d think that if the Yankees didn’t have a 40-man crunch

Ben Clemens: They literally couldn’t announce the LeMahieu signing if they didn’t clear a roster spot

Ben Clemens: The fact that they got rid of salary AND a 40-man spot w hen those are two things they’ve said they need to move

Ben Clemens: Makes me think that it’s most likely just a non-baseball-talent thing

Benintendi: Does Benintendi even raise the Marlins win total?

Ben Clemens: I think so, not exactly sure what hte projections say but after Starling Marte I would take him over every Marlins outfielder

Sanford: Thanks for chatting, Ben. If there’s no DH in the NL this year (looking likely per Heyman’s report), do you think the Mets should still go for a CF like JBJ, or stick with Dom, Nimmo, and Conforto as their every day OFs? Conforto is locked in regardless, and Dom’s bat has to stay in the lineup IMO. Maybe flip Nimmo for another starter?

Ben Clemens: Let’s do two things. First, what should the Mets do if there’s no DH?

Ben Clemens: I think they should just fake it with Nimmo

Ben Clemens: I’d be in for Mike Petriello’s eternal Bader/Nimmo swap too

Ben Clemens: If they could get fair return for Nimmo and sign JBJ, that’s fine, but Nimmo is really good

Ben Clemens: I know Mets fans are pretty divided on him for whatever reason

Ben Clemens: But at this point he’s played four straight years, and while injury prone, his worst OBP was .375

Hugh: Patxi’s or Little Star for deep dish pizza in SF

Ben Clemens: Quick interlude: haven’t had Little Star deep dish, love its regular crust though

Ben Clemens: I live about 3 blocks from the one on Divis, so I’ve been there too often

Ben Clemens: Now, back to the DH thing

Ben Clemens: The Heyman thing, I’d totally ignore it

Ben Clemens: That’s the owners leaking a wild perspective on a story

Ben Clemens: We already know from what the owners and PA have said that DH and expanded playoffs aren’t valued in the same ballpark

Ben Clemens: It’s like if Heyman reported “The PA has elected not to accept a two dollar bill in exchange for a ten dollar bill. Looks like they might not be getting a two dollar bill.”

Ben Clemens: The owners are dying to expand the playoffs, and they’ll offer more than just the DH for it

Ben Clemens: They’re just playing the negotiation through the media game

MM: If the Red Sox go on a long World Series drought after trading Mookie, then what should we call it?  The “Curse of the Mookie” just does not have a very good ring to it.

Ben Clemens: I vote they call it the Mookie Monster

Ben Clemens: As in, the Mookie Monster ate the team’s chances this year

George: Is the Nats bullpen going to actually be good for once? I’m so sick and tired of the Nats just trading away good bullpen pieces and then ALSO having bad pen.

Ben Clemens: I think it will be acceptable

Ben Clemens: Not great, maybe

Ben Clemens: I’m down on Hand relative to consensus

Ben Clemens: I would hardly be surprised if he’s the 4th-best reliever for the Nats this year behind Harris, Suero, and Rainey in some order

Ben Clemens: But that’s an okay bullpen

Ben Clemens: Gonna be higher than the recent Nats versions, I think?

45 blows billygoats: Are you expecting a bounce back year from Matt Olsen or was he truly exposed as not being able to hit the wicked bender?

Ben Clemens: Bounce back

Ben Clemens: His numbers weren’t even *that* awful last year under the hood, more of a ‘he didn’t bat enough times’ thing

Ben Clemens: His strikeout rate went up but so did his walk rate. Seems to me from a quick look like he maybe got too passive at the plate

Ben Clemens: That said, he was an above-average hitter despite a .227 BABIP

Ben Clemens: Not saying he’s going to replicate his short-season 2017 but I totally buy the projection systems (steamer and zips both think he’ll OBP around .340 and wRC+ above 120 next year)

Handy Hand: Brad Hand will be Handy. Before the signing, the Nats had a bad Hand in the bullpen. He will have a Hand in improving in it. On the other Hand, he is expensive.

Ben Clemens: I was intrigued by the idea of writing the Brad Hand signing up

Ben Clemens: Just to lean RIIIIIIIGHT up to puns

Ben Clemens: then ignore them

George: How do you personally separate rooting for a player and feeling repulsed by their personal beliefs? I want to root for players on my favorite team but also find it hard to ignore their less than desirable personal opinions.

Ben Clemens: This is a wonderful question that I don’t have a satisfactory answer for

Ben Clemens: I think that you need to make up your own mind on this, but it’s worth being mindful of the fact that yeah, there are probably a lot of players, and certainly owners, whose personal beliefs you m ight disagree with

Ben Clemens: Following baseball while being conscientious about the bad things that the sport and the people involved in it do isn’t easy

Ben Clemens: The one thing that I think you should under no circumstances do is defend a bad actor’s bad actions b/c you like how they play baseball

Ben Clemens: You can say “this is a bad thing, but sports are fraught and I choose to root for the players on my team who are good on the field”

Ben Clemens: that’s fine

Ben Clemens: Even though that’s not how I feel

Ben Clemens: But don’t start defending people for one thing b/c you like another thing they do

See! You! Later!: On the subject of Hand getting a $500,000 raise: I don’t think it is that teams were trying to get cute, just that they thought the market would be weaker than it was, like most fans and writers. We saw it with the Astros giving Brantley 2/32 after not giving him the QO.

Ben Clemens: Yeah exactly. Teams thought Hand was worth less than the option given the deal they expected him to get

Ben Clemens: The market turned out stronger than expected, now his value has gone up

Ben Clemens: Good deal for him

Guest: So the Red Sox have actually done some hot-stoving!  They don’t seem like a great team, but they’ve shown a willingness to spend money and be creative.  What else do they need to get back to wild card level, while not messing up their win-later moves?

Ben Clemens: They should sign a starter

Ben Clemens: Not necessarily a good one

Ben Clemens: but just someone who can eat some innings for them

Ben Clemens: Tyler Anderson? sure

Griff: Any good SPs that might be surprisingly available? Flaherty?

Ben Clemens: Surprisingly rules out Castillo, I guess

Ben Clemens: So, this is definitely not my area of expertise

Ben Clemens: I don’t really have any inside dirt or anything

Ben Clemens: That said, I think that Brandon Woodruff might be available in the right deal. The Brewers don’t strike me as the kind of team who wants to tie up resources on long-term deals for starters, and if you’re going to deal him, this year is a good time

Ben Clemens: I don’ tihnk it’s likely, just more than 0%

Ben Clemens: hot take, I know

45 blows billygoats: Last year’s exhibition season, Oracle Park closed the right field fence access which made for a different environment for hitters and pitchers. How does this factor in, if at all, to your projection for Giants players if they go back to keeping it open?

Ben Clemens: I’m not in charge of that, but I assume you just further weight down the 2020 results

Ben Clemens: Given that it’s hard to do that systematically, you probably just let it be. But given that it made the park play more hitter-ish, you can shade everyone’s productions down (in wOBA or ERA)

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I know you’re not big on accumulating kitchen gadgets, but we got an immersion circulator for the holidays, and wow, sous vide steaks are delicious and idiot-proof. Also makes for an impossibly juicy chicken breast. Thinking salmon next since minimizing albumin (the icky white stuff) has been a thorn in my side forever.

Ben Clemens: I’ve learned from Top Chef that salmon is tricky to get right in sous vide. That said, that’s from a Top Chef from 2007 so maybe it’s gotten easier since then

Ben Clemens: My wife is on a big bread baking kick that has toned down the rest of our cooking

Guest: Okay so FG Depth Charts has Boston as the sixth best team. Am I missing something?

Ben Clemens: Hm, I see them at 10th-best, but I don’t know, we chop stuff up differently on different pages. I think what this reflects is how good we think the core of the team is, plus I think that Steamer is a smidge high on Alex Verdugo (just my opinion)

Ben Clemens: The thing is, though, they have enough great players that they can afford some holes and they’ll still be competitive

Ben Clemens: It’s a lot easier to have a good team when you start with Bogaerts and Devers

Ben Clemens: We also have Sale pitching 100 innings, so if you’re lower there, that will also hurt

Magical Mangina: Soooo….no DH?  For one, I am tired of the rules being used as political footballs in CBA talks.  Hard for a GM to properly construct a roster without knowing the rules of the game, I would think.

Ben Clemens: It’s indeed very frustrating. I hope they just do it

Morbo: I used sous vide for steaks for probably a year and a half but I have entirely converted to reverse searing my steaks. Season the place in a 200 to 225 oven until internal temp is roughly 10 degrees below your desired temp then sear in the hottest you can possibly get a cast iron for about 90 seconds (less if the cut is thin) a side. Feel free to butter baste while searing

Ben Clemens: Iiiiinteresting

Ben Clemens: I’m not much of a steak person, but that style makes sense

Ben Clemens: Also, instant read thermometers — if you’re cooking, buy one

Ben Clemens: They’re so great

Appa Yip Yip: Brad Hand watching Captain Holt yell “Vindication!” on repeat for days.

Marc: With their newfound cap space, which pieces do you think the Yankees will go after? I assume they’ll bring back gardner with something like 1/6, maybe with a team option, and they want/need bullpen help. Think they go after Rosenthal, or maybe a cheaper option like Kintzler, or perhaps an upgrade somewhere else for depth?

Ben Clemens: I’m thinking just Gardner. Spreading it out over many players feels like a weird thing given their 40 man situation

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll audition various minor leaguers as relievers for hte first half of the season and make a trade if nothin works out

Ottavino #0: If the Mets really play JD Davis at 3B and Dom Smith in LF, opposing managers should start 9 RH hitters and tell them all to pull everything or you’re benched.

Ben Clemens: I think that’s too harsh to Smith

Ben Clemens: Probably appropriately harsh to Davis

Ben Clemens: Like, he’s definitely not a good left fielder

Ben Clemens: But he’s learning it on the fly and I think you can say with some conviction that he’s a better outfielder than Davis

Ben Clemens: Statcast doesn’t hate Davis’s defense at third but uh, I do

5 is greater than 6: I’m not gonna even lie. I hate the 6-man rotation trend because this almost kills the 2 start week for fantasy baseball purposes. Tigers, Mariners, Angels – anyone else?

Ben Clemens: It sounds like the Padres are gonna goof around with it here and there

Ben Clemens: I think the Red Sox will when Sale comes back

Morbo: This just in: Its Monday

Ben Clemens: Disastrous news

furtive stan javier: Why is everyone projecting that Enrique Hernandez will play 2B in Boston? He’s a capable CF, a much more demanding position, and there are many more 2B on the market (Villar, Miller, Santana, Hernandez, Wong, Schoop, La Stella, Cabrera, Lowrie, Kipnis, et al.)

Ben Clemens: Eh, just depends on who they sign. On their current roster, he’s a 2B

Ben Clemens: Well, he’s a super utility guy even then, b/c he’s also kind of their fourth outfielder

Ben Clemens: But yeah, he can play a competent CF, I’d argue

major puig baseball: what do you think the end of the dodgers’ offseason ends up looking like — turner and/or semien and that’s it? that plus a reliever (rosenthal or ???)? something totally out of left field like getting another SP?

Ben Clemens: Turner/Semien plus another reclamation project pitcher

Ben Clemens: Rosenthal seems like maybe a fit

Ben Clemens: but someone like that

Ben Clemens: I’m leaning Turner over Semien though

George: Kolton Wong or Tommy La Stella? Both lefties, both on the wrong side of 30, both going to command basically the same contract. Which would you prefer?

Ben Clemens: I like Wong more. Maybe it’s my Cardinals homer-ism showing through but I think his floor is just way higher

Ben Clemens: And I’m not convinced his ceiling is any lower

brad penny for your thoughts: what the NL central is doing should be criminal

Ben Clemens: Inclined to agree

Ben Clemens: It’s truly amazing how no one wants to jump to the front of the line

Johnny5Alive: I think the general impression is that Sandy was always running the show, but after the Porter incident, it seemed like all the players the Mets were previously linked to (and supposedly ‘close’ – Hand, Springer, but also Hernandez) have signed elsewhere.  Like I know its not in solidarity with Porter, but if one person is laying the groundwork on these deals and then just is no longer there, does that affect these negotiations that much?

Ben Clemens: I have to imagine it really varies from player to player

Ben Clemens: And depends on specific personal relationships

Ben Clemens: If your recruiting pitch has been heavy on ‘you’ll get along with the front office’ and light on ‘here’s a bag full of money you dope’

Ben Clemens: Well, that’s bad

Appa Yip Yip: How deep do you think the Cubs tear down is going to go? Baseless Hendricks/Bryant rumours are flying everywhere.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that Hendricks will actually move

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re going to tear it down pretty hard in a year though

Ben Clemens: I think that they’ll struggle to get both fair return and palatable fan reaction for much more teardown this year

Ben Clemens: But I think their trend is towards bottoming out below 80 wins for a bit soon

Kyle: If you had to rank all the divisions by how good they are off the top of your head, what would it be 1-6?

Ben Clemens: Sure, let’s just do this off the top of my head. NLW, ALE, NLE, ALC, ALW, NLC

Ben Clemens: Really unsure on the bottom 3 though

Bookie Metts: What do you make of the Ottovino trade? Seems like a great deal for the Red Sox considering their current team status.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, the Yankees wanted to hand someone Adam Ottavino and they were willing to pay for it

Ben Clemens: Sounds like something worth accepting

Alabama Hot Pocket: The correct answer is AL East, NL East………………………….who cares?

Alabama Hot Pocket: NLW is a good division?  Two good teams and a hot mess below them makes a good division since when?

Ben Clemens: I think the DBacks are fine, but yeah, having the two best teams in the NL (and arguably in baseball) counts for a lot

Ben Clemens: This isn’t a binary ‘how many good teams are there’

Kyle: Can the Nats sustain this stars and then whatever cheap FAs are on the market for much longer? Feels since Harper has left that has been the basic plan. Can they keep it up much longer if they keep spending this much every season?

Ben Clemens: It seems like it’s going to mostly work for a while

Ben Clemens: I think a bigger issue is that we dn’t really know Nats’ ownership’s willingness to hand out cash

Ben Clemens: We know they’re willing to guarantee cash

Ben Clemens: But a lot of their deferrals are still ongoing or coming up

Appa Yip Yip: The question would be better phrased as “best competition for the division title” which boils down to how many teams you like in the race.

Ben Clemens: Now that question

Ben Clemens: Might have NLC at the top lol

Ben Clemens: I think the NLC and NLE are the only divisions with 4 reasonably likely division winners

Nolan: If the M’s sign Rosenthal and Eddie Rosario you think they’d be a legit sleeper pick for the division? Seems crazy that they’re keeping the budget so tight with the west so open right now.

Ben Clemens: Legit sleeper pick is a hard one to define

Ben Clemens: I don’t really think so, though

Ben Clemens: Their rotation is just not there

Ben Clemens: To the point where you can get away with a middling offense like theirs

Ben Clemens: I think if Evan White takes a huge step forward, Haniger plays a full year, and one of Moore/Long is an above average second baseman

Ben Clemens: Then you get to the point where you’re like, oh, this is interesting

Ben Clemens: But they don’t really have the length or star power in the rotation to where I’d like that offense to make the playoffs

Ben Clemens: I think they’re a year or two and a few starters away

Guest: I can’t buy the Phillies as a division title contender, so were you including the Miamis when you cited 4 contenders in the NL East?

Ben Clemens: I think the Phillies are a contender. Clearly a cut below the other 3 but at least in the mix

Ben Clemens: I suppose given that you could add ALE as well

Ben Clemens: I think the Red Sox are in a similar spot

Ben Clemens: But i agree with you, they’re the worst of that group

Ben Clemens: By a fair margin

Bookie Metts: Would you rather have Jameson Taillon or Garrett Richards in your 2021 rotation?

Ryan: What’s your take on the Pirates’ return for Tailon? And are you taking the over or under on Depth Charts’ projected 4.44 FIP for Jamo?

Ben Clemens: Under

Ben Clemens: And I’d rather have Taillon

Ben Clemens: Not that I think he’s an All Star but I just have given up on Richards

Ben Clemens: I hope he proves me wrong!

Ben Clemens: But I’m just going to need to see him make 15 starts in a year before I’m projecting him to make it work

Ben Clemens: Not that Taillon is a paragon of health but he had three straight healthy-ish seasons at one point

Ben Clemens: Richards did from 2013-2015, but then he’s spent 5 years being broken

B.B. Rodriguez: The luxury tax is effectively a salary cap now right? Yankees dumping a useful player and prospect is shameful for the sport.

Ben Clemens: If that were the most shameful thing baseball had done in the last month, I’d be so happy

Ben Clemens: But yeah

Ben Clemens: What a joke

Phil: Are the twins still the favorite in the AL Central. Or do they need more starters to hold of the White Sox? What FA should they target?

Ben Clemens: I’ll give it narrowly to the Sox, but it’s a two-team tossup

Ben Clemens: I think they should sign someone they’re familiar with

Ben Clemens: Jake Odorizzi

Ben Clemens: But I think they could also sign a bat and tuck them into LF or DH easily

Guest: Olney tweeting informed speculation that Mets & Jays may be in on Kris Bryant- if so, he’s not really worth that much in the way of prospect capital, is he? Given inconsistency, price, and 1 year of control?

Ben Clemens: Nah

Ben Clemens: It’ll be a cosmetic prospect basically

Ben Clemens: Someone the Cubs can say they got, when what they really got was salary relief

Mike Rizzo: Say the Nats struggle and decide to blow it up at the deadline. Everyone besides Soto has to be on the table right? Would Strasburg/Corbin be moveable? Scherzer would get something. Turner too. Hand/Harris/Rainey/Suero Maybe? would there be enough of a return to justify a rebuild or just retool and hope for the best in 2022

Ben Clemens: I’d keep Robles, b/c I don’t expect his return to be commensurate with his skill

Ben Clemens: But if you can get a fair return, sure

Ben Clemens: I think Stras is probably not movable until we get more health info

Ben Clemens: I don’t honestly see the appeal of a teardown though

Ben Clemens: You have Juan Soto, just try to win a bunch of games right now

Bauer: With only 1 full well above-average season, am I really an Ace worth $25-$30M per year for 4+ years? Or am I topping the market due to the lack of high-quality FA SP in this year’s class

Ben Clemens: Not to get too inside baseball, but I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about this exact question for a future article

Ben Clemens: I think that the reason Bauer is bein considred as more of an ace than his career averages would suggest is b/c he started using pine tar (or you know, some other sticky thing)

Ben Clemens: Which is something that most pitchers do

Ben Clemens: And was really good

Ben Clemens: So you have a prior…. Trevor Bauer doesn’t use sticky stuff and is an average pitcher

Ben Clemens: You have new info: Trevor Bauer sticked up and was great

Ben Clemens: And a hypothesis: sticky stuff improves pitching ability

Ben Clemens: You can think of those all together in your head and see Bauer as a top 20 pitcher

Ben Clemens: I think he’s being a little overrated but I also think you have meaningful new data to consider

Ryan: Who plays the most games at 1B for MIN in 2021?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say Sano

Ben Clemens: But my runner up is Brad Miller

Dee Arby: is corner defense overrated? I get C, 2B/SS, CF are super important on that side. My non-evidence based argument that a LF may get only a few balls hit to him per game, is the one or two balls they can’t get to compared to a better defender worth the trade off of a better bat?

Ben Clemens: Having a bad defender in a corner hurts less than putting one in an up-the-middle spot, specifically b/c of opportunity

Ben Clemens: Given that most defensive metrics don’t scale to opportunity, they’re aware of it only passively

Ben Clemens: I would argue that corner defense *reputation* is wildly overrated

Ben Clemens: And that the spread between the best and worst corner defenders is necessarily smaller

Ben Clemens: Due to fewer opportunities

Ben Clemens: I dunno if that’s a great answer, but I think you’re generally on the right track

Bauer: Does that mean I have to admit I used sticky stuff in 2020 to teams during the interview process (to prove my 2020 is not a fluke)? I’ve been very careful about that claim in the past

Ben Clemens: I mean

Ben Clemens: I just don’t see how this is a thing

Ben Clemens: Teams aren’t like ‘well he added 300 rpm of spin but I don’t know how, probably just a fluke unless he admits it’

Ben Clemens: Also, it’s not like he’s answering a subpeona that will be published forever

Ben Clemens: He can privately tell a team that and tell them it’s obviously off the record

Appa Yip Yip: If speculation were to be believed the mets and jays would be the only teams signing players at all

Ben Clemens: That would be kind of fun, though

Ben Clemens: Two teams who should be flexing more financial muscle both doing it

Guest: Re: Defense being overrated- I know a run is a run but you seriously can not convince me that the difference between medium bad defense and good defense is worth the equal run difference in their batting skill. Maybe its because we can tangibly quantify batting, but I remain unconvinced that defense is really that important as long as you aren’t a dumpster fire.

Ben Clemens: Oh, it’s definitely not!

Ben Clemens: Here’s one way of thinking about it: the difference between the best and worst 3b last year per UZR was 13 runs

Ben Clemens: Arenado vs. Devers

Ben Clemens: (I wouldn’t necessarily buy Devers’s defense being that bad but that’s neither here nor there)

Ben Clemens: The difference between the best and worst offensive value for full-time 3B last year was 35 runs

Ben Clemens: roughly triple the difference

Ben Clemens: Also, offensive statistics are more reliable than defensive statistics for a similar sample size, so you hsould believe the gap on offense more

Orioles Tragic: Hey Ben! Orioles fan dying for good news. There’s been rumors of a Santander to Miami trade, what could they conceivably get back? Trevor Rogers at best?

Ben Clemens: That seems reasonable, and I don’t think that’s a terrible outcome

Ben Clemens: I share your frustration, btw. My mom is a huge O’s fan and she is eternally hopeful and eternally saddened

Appa Yip Yip: I would argue the Jays have been flexing financial muscle for years now, using money during the down years to snag prospects like teoscar and mcguire, cutting bait on Tulo when he still had 50 million owed to make room for Bichette while teams like baltimore hold out for a crumb of Chris davis, and now it’s kicking into higher gear with the Springer signing.

Appa Yip Yip: There was never any sense to Shapiro leaving Cleveland if he didn’t have certainty that ownership was willing to spend.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, this is a better way to put it I suppose

Ben Clemens: The jays have never been shy about money

Ben Clemens: They’re just becoming even less shy

Ben Clemens: The Tulo move is probably not cited enough. It wasn’t really a financial decision, but a willingness to accept sunk costs decision

Ben Clemens: But it was excellent

Gavin Lux: Now that Hernandez went to Boston, do I have a starting role in LA?

Ben Clemens: The Dodgers are going to try really hard to give you one

Doug: Did the Pirates get more for Taillon than Musgrove? Which would you rather have of the two?

Ben Clemens: I think they got about the same

Ben Clemens: I would rather have Musgrove

Ben Clemens: So, I like the Taillon trade more for them I suppose

Pitch_Out: Is Ottavino another “couldn’t handle the bright lights of NY” guy,  just another reliever subject to noisy year-to-year statlines, or is it just because it’s *really friggin’ hard* to control a pitch with that much break?

Ben Clemens: The second one

Ben Clemens: He gave up a .375 BABIP last year in 18 innings

Ben Clemens: gotta kinda ignore that, it’s 18 innings

Ben Clemens: There are red flags there, namely the diving swinging strike rate

Ben Clemens: And I do think he was miscast as a true elite reliever given the split issue

Ben Clemens: But I don’t see any reason to think anything other than ‘above average reliever’ here, and that’s not a bad outcome given what he has been over his career

Ben Clemens: That said, he’s 35 so

Ben Clemens: One arm twinge and gg

Guest: Have you heard anything about the new MASN controversy? (Cutting Pre/Post game shows for both Nats and O’s and other general budget cuts) Do you think this gives the Nats enough leeway to just leave this atrocious television deal and get a new TV deal that the O’s don’t screw them with?

Ben Clemens: I have been following it and what a mess

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the legal ramifications of the original MASN deal

Ben Clemens: So I can’t really opine on that

Ben Clemens: That said, this will surely put some pressure on the arrangement

drew: am i being anxious for thinking the padres still don’t have enough sp depth? i don’t really have high hopes for any of the prospects to make a big step this year with the exception of morejon

Ben Clemens: Not really. They have a lot of depth 1-5 but not a lot 6-10

Ben Clemens: It’s a different kind of depth

Ben Clemens: And I think they could probably acquire some cheaply if they needed it

Ben Clemens: But the reinforcements aren’t amazing even though the highlights are great

Ben Clemens: I think they could do a Profar-esque thing with starters still

Guest: Yankees and Red Sox trade, now the know the end is near.  what is the yankees plan for that $8M they saved?

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll laugh about how they don’t need to pay the CBT

Ben Clemens: And then also sign Brett Gardner

Tacoby Bellsbury: So, thanks for the Sagrada and Jaipur recommendations, everyone. Can you please stop recommending games for me? The pile of boxes is beginning to teeter, and we’re starting to lose our memory of rules for the games on the bottom of the pile.

Ben Clemens: This is a massive problem in the Clemens household

Ben Clemens: My mother-in-law got me Taverns of Tiefenthal for Christmas (a board game about drinking beer? amazing!)

Ben Clemens: And after we played it a few times and wanted to put it on the shelf…. we didn’t have the shelf space

Ben Clemens: The biggest problem with board game collecting is that you can’t stop

Dee Arby: What does Ben Clemens register on the speed pitch at the ballpark?

Ben Clemens: —

Ben Clemens: probably

Ben Clemens: I have never had much of an arm

Ben Clemens: if you wanted a player comp for my college intramural softball league I’d be James Loney

Ben Clemens: scaled way down

Ben Clemens: BABIP-y first baseman

Steve O: How much do you think Rosenthal will cost? Seems like he’d be a big upgrade in the Yankees pen. Maybe around what Yates got?

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll cost less than what Yates got

Ben Clemens: And yeah, I think he’ll be a bargain at that rate

Ben Clemens: But I don’ see the Yankees doing it

Lucas: Do expanded playoffs benefit free agents? Wouldn’t a lower win threshold to get in incentivize the projected 75 win team to spend on FA more than under the current 10 team system?

Ben Clemens: Yeha but it would disincentivize the 80-win team from spending

Ben Clemens: I find it almost inconceivable that it would help unless teams started giving huge financial payouts to teams who made the playoffs

Ben Clemens: Okay, a few quick hitters and then I’m out of here

Ben Clemens: Both about baseball writing, as it turns out, and both probably from the same person

Guest: Out of curiosity do you read all the stuff published by the other writers at Fangraphs?

Ben Clemens: Depends on the day but mostly yes

Ben Clemens: I got into writing baout baseball b/c of how much I loved reading about baseball

Ben Clemens: So unless I’m just completely swamped with work, for sure

Ben Clemens: It’s also a great way to get ideas

Guest: Of all the non-fangraphs MLB writers, whose work do you like to read the most?

Ben Clemens: I’ll just quickly say that I read a lottttt of other baseball stuff and think that there are a ton of great writers out there doing interesting work

Ben Clemens: But favorite? I think it’s Tom Tango, b/c I admire his ability to frame questions so well

Ben Clemens: A Tango Tiger blog almost always means you’re in for a treat if you’re into that kind of thing, and it’s very much something I enjoy

Ben Clemens: On that note, I’m out of here

Ben Clemens: Have a great week, everyone, and I don’t know, some generic platitude

Ben Clemens: May all your days be good ones, bam, there