Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/16/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to my last chat of the year

Ben Clemens: 2024 was an awesome year of baseball, and I’m going to remember it quite fondly, so if you have any year in review type questions, send them my way

Ben Clemens: in the meantime, let’s answer some regular questions

Sig Mejdal: should I get over it and trade Coby mayo for an SP like Cease or Castillo? Or hoard prospects and hope they work out and sign a lesser SP like Flaherty?

Balmore Bill: What are we doing?! Can we not trade excess from our big league roster (Mountcastle, Heston, Ramon urias) and/or prospects for pitching? Is anyone besides Jackson and basallo off limits? Who should we target?

Ben Clemens: Ah yes, “Here’s Ramon Urias, give me the best pitcher you can for him”

Ben Clemens: sadly, that wouldn’t get too far

Ben Clemens: I think that the O’s are in an interesting spot. The real thing I want them to do is sign some players to extensions

Ben Clemens: I liked their trade for Burnes, for example, and I wouldn’t hate seeing them replicate that, but one thing I feel very sure about is that they shouldn’t do half measures

Ben Clemens: Half of Adley’s team control is gone. 1/3 of Gunnar’s. You have a rare opportunity. The present matters

El Tim: If Shohei pitches most of a full season at an aceish level, could he win Comeback Player of the Year the season after winning back-to-back unanimous MVPs? Seems very on-brand.

Ben Clemens: No, haha

Zilko: I know it all depends on price, but it feels like the Red Sox should double down and get Burnes, no?  Saved money by trading for Crochet, multiple elite position player prospects on the cusp of the MLB.  Burnes-Crochet 1-2 feels like it gets you pretty dang far in both the regular and postseason.

Ben Clemens: I think that they are in need of more players

Ben Clemens: pitcher? Bregman? Teo? I don’t have a super strong take on which option they should take

Ben Clemens: but this is not a great team as it is

Nickles: Will the Yanks regret not topping the Cubs offer for Tucker? Reportedly they balked at Gil and Lombardi.

Ben Clemens: If that reporting is true, I think that was a big error on their part

Ben Clemens: they even have great evidence of how well a trade for a FA-to-be superstar can work out

Pitchers List: Why is the SP market so much hotter this year than last, when Snell and Montgomery signed so late? Are teams prioritizing clear Game 1/2 playoff starters, regardless of price or age? While the pen market has been slow to develop. An interesting shift from the recent mantra to not overpay pitchers…

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m surprised. I guess we’ll have to wait for some other top hitters to sign to see whether it’s the whole market being hot or just the pitchers who have signed so far

Kid: In a vacuum, should the Mets (a) resign Pete, (b) sign Bregman and shift Vientos, or (c) address the void via trade (e.g., Arenado)?

Ben Clemens: I think I like B most of these options

Ben Clemens: but it depends what the market for Arenado looks like

Davy Andrews: Hey Ben, just wanted to let you know that you appear in the background right around the 2:30 mark of the video clip at the top of this article.

Ben Clemens: Hey Davy! Impressive spot

Ben Clemens: I wondered what kind of angle those cameras were capturing, I guess now I know

Ben Clemens: I feel like they were perfectly placed to cdatch the entirety of the crowd milling around

AAAA: Only two defensive shift violations were called last season (both after manager challenges and both in the span of ~a week)–does that seem low?

Ben Clemens: not really… you can just look at where you’re standing, which seems to make it a lot harder to accidentally run afoul of

Guest: Does anyone know the rules by which team names reference a city or state? Could the As theoretically temporarily rebrand as the Sacramento As?

Ben Clemens: I believe they could have, becuase they chose to just be called the athletics instead of adding at eam name

Ben Clemens: a city name, rather

TKDC: I love the Walk-Off feature you all added, though I’m a little sad I came one percentage point short of platinum status. Do you know how many days were covered by it? I know it’s short of a full year, and I just wanted to know how many days I didn’t visit Fangraphs?

Ben Clemens: I think we cut it off two Saturdays ago

TheBeatlesShow: Hey, Ben.  Brent Rooker good for 50 HR’s in Sacramento?  Happy holidays.

Ben Clemens: that is a LOT of home runs

Ben Clemens: more than Statcast thinks he would have hit if he played the whole season in Cincy last year

Ben Clemens: so I’m gonna say no. I don’t think the park is going to be the best hitter’s park in baseball or anything. Just a lot friendlier than the Coliseum

Justin: Kyle Tucker: set-your-watch-by-him 5 war all star, or going-forward 8 war superstud?

Ben Clemens: for me, the first

Ben Clemens: demonstrate the second before I’m willing to believe it, you know?

Justin: Best christmas song?

Ben Clemens: I have a few contenders, I’ll give my wife credit for these because I wasn’t a big Christmas song person as a kid

Ben Clemens: Christmas Wrapping by the Waitresses, Merry Christmas by Elton John and Ed Sheeran, Fairytale of New York by the Pogues, and the entire Sia Christmas album are my go tos

Ryan: Red Sox don’t have a shortstop. Dbacks have two. Dbacks also need a first baseman. Who says no to a Geraldo Perdomo for Tristian Casas trade?

Ben Clemens: The Red Sox

Ben Clemens: by like, a lot

Ben Clemens: I think Casas is just better in addition to having an extra year of control

Guest: Post Kyle Tucker trade: The Cubs outfield is LOADED. Do you think Bellinger/Suzuki are most likely to be moved?

Ben Clemens: Yes I do. Last week, Seiya’s agent mentioned that he was not interested in being a full-time DH, and that he’d specifically looked to avoid that when he signed his free agency contract

Ben Clemens: I think that puts them in a huge bind, tbh

Ben Clemens: there’s just nowhere for him to play. I think that they’re going to end up trading him, probably for not that much because it’s an awkward market for corner OF bats with some good free agents available for contending teams still

Ben Clemens: I’d make a move to get Kyle Tucker every time still, but they definitely need to make some more moves given current roster construction

drhotdog: as an angels fan ive been dreading a nolan areando trade.  is there a trade you think could be win-win? cuz i only see disaster brewing

Ben Clemens: no. Arenado to the Angels only makes sense because he’s from there

Ben Clemens: I love that he talked about how much he wanted to win, then gave a list of teams that had a bunch of teams that eclipsed .500 and have legit WS aspirations

Ben Clemens: and then the Angels

Ben Clemens: like, you can just say you like where you’re from, that’s okay too

Justin: We all know the Pirates aren’t gonna offer enough dollars for teoscar/santander, the main cleanup style corner OFs in FA.  Aav probably 20-30.   Assuming they could afford a AAV closer to 10-20, who are some trade targets who make sense?

Ben Clemens: what about Seiya???

Justin: What are your thoughts on the Horwitz deal from the pirates POV?  Solid enough leadoff hitter at 1b for a few years?

Ben Clemens: I mean, no

Ben Clemens: this is the kind of trade you make when you know you’re not going to spend any real money in FA, in my opinion

Ben Clemens: he’s a perfectly reasonable blah bat, if he ends up as a rotational player that’s fine

Ben Clemens: if you’re counting on him as one of your best hitters, you did something wrong

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Even with Soto, the Mets still need pitching. They’ve got Senga and a bunch of question marks. Is this team really a contender without further additions?

Ben Clemens: I mean…. why would we expect no further additions

Ben Clemens: It’s December 16 and 17 of the top 50 free agents have signed

Ben Clemens: ‘is this team really a contender’ yeah the team that just made the NLCS, signed Juan Soto, and still has a payroll nearly 100 million lower than last year’s is a contender

RetireNutting: WRT your O’s Adley window response…aren’t the Pirates in a similar spot with Skenes’ window just a few years earlier? Couldn’t the two teams match up nicely on say a (one of) Jared Jones/Mitch Keller for Coby Mayo sort of deal including other pieces to make it work?

Ben Clemens: I don’t really understand why the Pirates would do this

Ben Clemens: I mean, unless the O’s just bowled them over with value. But the O’s don’t do that. they specifically try to win every trade

Thank you for the chat!: In the case of Bellinger, can cash be conditionally added to the deal based on opt in years?

Ben Clemens: It can. The Arenado-to-the-Cards deal had the Rockies kicking in a different amount of cash based on whether he exercised his opt out. Similarly, the Mets had some conditional cash on Verlander’s trade to the Astros

Hot Stove Please: What was the most impactful trade of 2024?

Ben Clemens: The preseason Soto trade

Ben Clemens: not only did it spearhead the Yankees, but it gave the Padres a head start on rebuilding their rotation, and the two combined had huge impacts in both leagues

Sirras: What was the most surprising moment of 2024 for you? Most surprising storyline?

Ben Clemens: Shohei going 50/50 shocked me. I didn’t even consider him a contender for it

Ben Clemens: I think that the most surprising storyline for me was Skenes turning into the best pitcher in baseball (ish)

Ben Clemens: I was too low on him heading into the year

Colton: The news that the Astros are in on the Arenado sweepstakes (if that’s what we’re calling them I guess) was not surprising, but the timing seemed off with the moving Tucker directly before it came out. Any ideas on a potential return for him would be when the Cardinals move him?

Ben Clemens: Yeah…. honestly I could totally see this, the Astros seem to be going full thrift mode out of nowhere

Ben Clemens: and maybe they can get the Cardinals to eat a bunch of money, kick in some prospects, and do that

Ben Clemens: one thing I’m curious about is whether they think Paredes can play third

Ben Clemens: I think he can, and if he’s na average defender out there, I don’t quite understand the impetus to move a bunch of pieces to get Arenado

Ben Clemens: but if they think he’s better suited for first base, then I like it more

SPArn: Did you get a good enough (literal) look at Andres Chaparro in his cup of coffee last season to audibly giggle at the “If Chaparro can play third base” qualifier in today’s ZIPS Nationals write up?

Ben Clemens: I did!

Ben Clemens: I watched a lot of Nats games in the second half of the year

Dan’l: What do you suppose is the primary reason for the Cards to move Arenado this offseason? Salary relief? Honor his desire for a winning team? There’s a chance Arenado is worth more next offseason, as his average salary is lower and maybe (?) his offense improves in 2025.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, salary relief and because he asked to be traded

Troy: The mariners seem to have put it out there that they would trade Luis Castillo for real impact, likely at 3B or 2B. Do you think that trade actually exists? It’s hard to envision prying guys like Westburg or Mayo (who might not even be 3B) from Os or Vientos from the Mets

Ben Clemens: Nah, I don’t see it happening

Ben Clemens: The Mariners could always completely change their ways, but it’s clear that they value pitching EXTREMELY highly

Ben Clemens: so sure, they would trade Castillo for real impact

Ben Clemens: but they might think real impact is like, Brice Turang + Joey Ortiz

Neutral Fans Fan: Which team has the best bandwagoners to haters ratio going into 2025?

Ben Clemens: the Padres, maybe?

Ben Clemens: it’s a good question

Danny G100: I’d like to push back on the Suzuki thing… I think he is the 2nd best hitter on the team and can certainly split time with Tucker in right field. As a cubs fan I would take a lot in return like solid 3rd baseman or a top 2 starter on the rotation

Ben Clemens: okay, what if he tells you “I don’t want to play DH, I’m requesting a trade if I’m not going to be an outfielder”

Ben Clemens: I think Seiya is great, I’m consistently making dumb predictions about how good he’ll be

Ben Clemens: but I don’t know, they’re like a fantasy team that accidentally ended up with five first basemen

Ben Clemens: you can’t just go eh, it’ll work

Ben Clemens: I’d prefer to have all the great players on my team. but I dunno, are you gonna ask Tucker to DH? Bench Ian Happ?

Jazzy: Is it difficult to move a player like vientos from 3rd to first?

Ben Clemens: I don’t believe so, no

Ben Clemens: there aren’t a lot of examples of guys NOT being able to adapt to first

Northside: Why the interest in Jesus Luzardo? He’s constantly injured.

Ben Clemens: so, I’m with you

Ben Clemens: I just don’t see it. But a lot of people do

Ben Clemens: he has electric stuff and he’s had some good results when he can stay healthy, which is definitely infrequently

Jazzy: Do you think Bergman is beginning to decline? I’m not sold on him for the Mets if they go that way?

john darc: Sell me on the Yankees needing to crawl to Bregman and pay superstar money for a guy who isn’t producing like a superstar

Ben Clemens: alright, I guess the pitch is this

Ben Clemens: Bregman’s last three years: 5.4 WAR, 4.5 WAR, 4.1 WAR

Ben Clemens: Yankees who have hit 4.1 WAR in any of the last three years:

Ben Clemens: Aaron Judge (3x), Juan Soto

Dan’l: It makes no sense to keep Helsley, yes?

Ben Clemens: Not NO sense, but let me put it this way: I’d accept 90 cents on the dollar to trade him

Ben Clemens: it’s not out of the question that they’d get a better return by waiting for the deadline, and that’s interesting to me

Ben Clemens: but they seem serious enough about retooling that keeping a closer, and a dominant one, doesn’t really track with what I’d be trying to do

SPArn: A real question – Are you a bigger believer in Herz, Parker, Irvin, or none of the above being a member of the next contending Nats rotation? 2026… please? I lean Herz b/c of the bat missing, even though it comes in a weird way (I think he throws one fastball at… 5 different velocities?)

Ben Clemens: oh man

Ben Clemens: I think it’s Herz? It’s him or Parker for me

Okra: I think the Rays will have huge amount of rain delays this year which will put an extra strain on all their pitchers (and likely make them underperform.  Do you agree?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know how exactly they’re gonna handle it, but they manage to play FSL games without blowing people’s arms out

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll probably be able to figure it out, though I do agree that on the margin it won’t be ideal

Telemachus: Do you think Milwaukee could have gotten a better package for Williams? A deal including a top 100 prospect and other pieces?

Ben Clemens: I do not

Ben Clemens: I think that the deal they got is RIGHT in line with what they need

Ben Clemens: they struggled mightily in the rotation last year and they just cannot afford to sign people given their budget constraints

Ben Clemens: they’re trying to win every year

Ben Clemens: they seem to have a window right now, too: the Cardinals are taking a step back and the other teams haven’t quite gotten things together yet

Ben Clemens: “oh this guy is a top 100 prospect” is probably not as appealing to them as a complementary and pretty good prospect (Durbin) plus a rotation starter for this year

Guest: I like the way you characterized the Devin Williams trade, with the Brewers rotating the wheel of effective pitchers. But at some point, if you just keep staying at the same level, you’ll always get the same results. At some point, don’t they have to go all-in (or at least be additive, rather than trying to maintain status quo)?

Ben Clemens: Philosophical question, really

Ben Clemens: Would you rather get a ton of so-so bites at the apple, or go more boom-bust?

Ben Clemens: I remember thinking, when the Stearns era started, that his plan of not really bottoming out and trying to compete right away was novel and fun

Ben Clemens: I think this might be a grass is always greener situation here. I’m a big fan of taking shots when you can, and I completely agree that the Brewers refuse to do that

Ben Clemens: but I definitely understand their perspective

Ben Clemens: they really want to be competitive and bring the fans out every year

SPArn: Thanks for all the fun in chat and on the website this year. Five things was my favorite read every week. Z Lowe would be proud

Ben Clemens: Thank you very much

Ben Clemens: 5 things is very hard to write, just because the idea generation part of it takes a very long time and the giffing isn’t automatic, but it’s also my favorite thing to write, so it works out

SPArn: What are you looking forward to most, personally, in 2025?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna limit this to baseball

Ben Clemens: because if not, it’s my trip to Scandinavia that I’m planning

Ben Clemens: but: I’m excited to see what Ohtani does back on the mound

Ben Clemens: and I’m very excited to see a Chapman/Adames infield in person frequently

Danny G100: Any predictions for DeGrom this year? I keep seeing stuff like he’s still a top 7 or 8 pitcher in baseball.

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll still be the best pitcher in baseball on a rate basis

Ben Clemens: I truly have no idea how to handicap his health

Ben Clemens: I’m going to be very excited to watch, though

john darc: I was worried that would be your answer, that Bregman’s “down years” are still better than anybody on the team not named Judge. I just worry they’ll have to pay him like a superstar and it will prevent them from going after Tucker in free agency because “Oops, we spent all our money!” fake austerity nonsense.

Ben Clemens: yeah I mean, that’s all well and good, but they cannot run the team back as is imo

Ben Clemens: Judge is great RIGHT NOW

Ben Clemens: give him some help

Henry Dodger: Do you think next off-season’s free agent market might be cooler with the CBA being just one year from done, or is there no causation there?

Ben Clemens: I think it depends on how the internal conversations are going, and also very importantly on how the tv deal fallout is looking at that point

Right Field: Tucker put up a 180RC+ last year with good fielding and baserunning. His fluke shin injury aside, is he right up there with Soto as one of the best players at the moment?

Ben Clemens: well one way of looking at it is just projections. He has a 5.1 WAR projection over 672 PA. Soto is at 6.8 WAR in 686

Ben Clemens: Tucker’s WAR projection is 15th in baseball, so that’s definitely star level

Ben Clemens: And if you aren’t as bullish on the various defensive value adjustments propping people up, you could dock Cal Raleigh, Michael Harris, and William Contreras out of that list and get him to 12th

Ben Clemens: but let’s put it this way: in an abbreviated season, Tucker put up the best numbers of his career, by 30+ points of wRC+, and projection systems think that probably he’s not suddenly that good on a go-forward basis

Ben Clemens: in a full season, Soto put up the best full season of his career (not as good as 2020 on a rate basis), but by meaningfully less

Ben Clemens: and our projection systems think he’ll be not too far from the hitter he’s been most of his career, though they seem to like his plate discipline-driven producdtion a little more on a go-forward basis

Ben Clemens: either way, both are great. But the fact that SOto has 4 seasons better than Tucker’s best season, and is younger, probably means that Soto is better

Guest: With a last place finish, and one of the worst farm systems, should the Jays start a fire sale and try to get some value for their top assets?

Ben Clemens: If Vlad is not interested in an extension, then maybe

Ben Clemens: if he is: you don’t get Vlads very often, maybe pay him and keep trying to win

Sir Nerdlington: how can the cubs ‘be going all in’ per the post-Tucker trade reporting and yet still treat the CBT like a salary cap? It’s like we’re rooting for the brewers except, ya know, without the division titles.

Ben Clemens: No, the Brewers are way better at maximizing their roster

Ben Clemens: but yeah, kinda wild imo

SPArn: Re: the what are they going to do, ask Tucker to DH/Happ to sit occasionally, comment – I guess Tucker being an upcoming FA is a wrinkle in what I’m about to say, but are we… overrating the human element there? Like, they’re handsomely paid… the Cubs should probably be able to ask them EXACTLY that lol. I feel like we also just learned from the Reds that there’s no such thing as too much depth/just let these things work themselves out because they likely will

Ben Clemens: okay so, you could always try that

Ben Clemens: one wrinkle is the budget element

Ben Clemens: and clearly the Reds weren’t in love with their experiment b/c they went ahead and traded India as soon as they didn’t have pressing injury issues

Ben Clemens: but the human element matters! also they’re trying hard to re-sign Tucker and also presumably to find some contract extensions for young and good players

Ben Clemens: and they’d inevitably stunt PCA’s growth by doing this

Ben Clemens: one place where the Reds differed is that it was pretty obvious who needed the most playing time (Elly, McLain)

Ben Clemens: and those guy shappened to be the young players

Danny G100: I think what I meant with the suzuki take was that Happ, PCA will keep their jobs with Bellinger being traded.

Ben Clemens: so if they trade Bellinger, I guess things get a little easier

Ben Clemens: but that’s still one of Seiya, Happ, or Tucker DH’ing a ton

Ben Clemens: Bellinger to the Yankees, maybe?

Leric A Ongenhagen: holy cow Cubbies. If they land Luzardo, do you think they own the NLC? How would tank them against the entire NL if they have Luzardo?

Ben Clemens: Maybe I’m just a dummy, but landing Luzardo wouldn’t move the needle much for me at all

Ben Clemens: I’m not a big MIchael Busch believer, and for whatever reason I can’t talk myself into Hoerner even though I think the data disagrees with me

Ben Clemens: but I do think they’re co-favorites in the NLC with the Brewers

David Stearns: Pete Alonso doesn’t have much of a market does he just return to the Mets on a Bellinger type deal?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think that’s in the cards, although “doesn’t have much of a market” is pretty theoretical at this point

Yukon Cornelius: Is Kerry Carpenter closer to a future star or full time platoon player?

Ben Clemens: i think he’s closer to a future star

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he *IS* one, necessarily

Ben Clemens: but if you hit that well against righties, I’m gonna let you bat against lefties too

DeeBo: Do you think free agent market “dollar per WAR” calculations miss the point? I get how there’s a market average, but each team’s own dollars/WAR tolerance would seem to depend on their budget + ability to develop (cheap) talent internally through the minors

Ben Clemens: 100%

Ben Clemens: I actually wrote about this a few years ago

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/open-market-musings/

Bullock’s: Giants somehow only at $167M for next year.  They gotta get Burnes and get back in the playoffs, no?

Ben Clemens: I think that they should absolutely be trying to make the playoffs

Ben Clemens: I think that signing Burnes makes a lot of sense, too

Ben Clemens: and not just selfishly b/c I want to watch him, though also that

J: Ginny Searle had a pretty good take at BP about the Seiya situation. If Bellinger’s moved, between Tucker backing up CF on off days for PCA, Tucker and Happ DHing once in a while, and inevitable injuries, Seiya can probably get 600ish innings in the OF even as a primary DH. It just depends on how many innings he needs to be happy.

Ben Clemens: Ginny’s stuff is great, and I suppose that makes sense if they can trade Bellinger

Ben Clemens: in theory, Bellinger’s market is probably not huge

Ben Clemens: given that he chose to stay on a player option

Ben Clemens: but maybe they can pay some down (hahahahha Cubs fans, fun joke about your team being cost-insensitive) or just let him go for nothing?

Guest: Also $/war seems different for hitters and pitchers. Having one number doesn’t reflect that imo.

Ben Clemens: I’ve done some checking of this in the past, and the real divide is relievers vs. other

Ben Clemens: starting pitchers and hitters actually come in pretty close in the years I’ve checked

Dan Sanchez: On the topic of replicating the Burnes trade, could the O’s get Cease or Valdez with a package like Kjerstad, Suarez and a draft pick or 45 FV prospect? Obviously Suarez isn’t as attractive as DL Hall but he’s cheap rotation depth for a team giving up a starter and Kjerstad feels like the right level of headliner for a good rental?

Ben Clemens: I think they could, that sounds like a reasonable return

Ben Clemens: I think the Padres would probably do that if they like Kjerstad

Bobby Peru: Is Verdugo washed already? Where does he go from here?

Ben Clemens: yeah, washed imo

SeattleMarinersFan: Your thoughts on Julio Rodriguez? He’s only 23 yrs old but doesn’t seem to be a stud OF. Still room for improvement?

Ben Clemens: I think we are seeing different things looking at the same guy

Ben Clemens: He looks like a stud OF to me

Statcast: Will EV90 ever be added to FG?

Ben Clemens: it’s on our list of stuff, we de-prioritized it to focus more on getting the various stuff metrics onto the site in useful ways but I’ll bring it up again at some point b/c I really like it as a stat

Guest: If I’m making a trip to AZ for Spring Training, are there certain ballparks I should prioritize visiting?

Ben Clemens: I’m not the most knowledgeable, Eric is better, but: I love Salt River FIelds

Ben Clemens: FIeld?

Ben Clemens: I saw Acuna hit a homer in AFL there once, it was awesome

Ben Clemens: saw Nicky Lopez hit a homer too, it was a much less impressive homer

Colin: Do you think $/WAR equals out between Def WAR and Off WAR because maybe I am wrong but I would definitely pay more for Off WAR then Def WAR

Ben Clemens: Yeah, this I agree with

Ben Clemens: I think that the market, pretty reasonably, feels offensive war is more stable

Songbird’s Hay Den of Iniquity: What’s your take on Hayden Birdsong? Giants folks seem to think he’s got another gear. Prospect hounds don’t seem so sanguine. What would you expect from the kid over the next couple years?

Ben Clemens: storytime!

Ben Clemens: I got some free tickets to a Giants game last year through a friend and who was sitting in front of us? Birdsong’s entire family, all wearing Birdsong jerseys

Ben Clemens: either that or just a ton of fans who all went REALLY out of their way to get a custom jersey of a rookie making his first start

Ben Clemens: I think that I’d be willing to speculate on him having another gear, it’s far from a given and I understand why he wasn’t a huge, can’t miss prospect but he feels to me like one of those guys that would suddenly be much better if they could just add a little command

Ben Clemens: it’s no given that it’ll happen, but I like several of his pitches and his aggression. I just think the ball doesn’t go where he wants often enough for it all to work yet

Jim Bob Cooter: Is it safe to assume that the Cubs aren’t even half way through their big moves?

Ben Clemens: in terms of number of trades, maybe

Ben Clemens: in terms of total impact, Tucker is going to be more than half of the total moves, so I’d say they’re more than half through

Clen Bemens: Over/under Angels playoff over the next ten years: 0.5

Ben Clemens: ew

Ben Clemens: but over

Jamie: What do you think of the Woo rumors? The offer is apparently Woo for Casas, Luis Guerrero, and Allan Castro

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a great reason for this, but I’ve been a little lower than consensus on Woo

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a strong view on Guerrero or Castro, either

Ben Clemens: so I’d say I’m probably the wrong person to ask on this one… but I like Casas, and think that he’s a reasonable headliner for young pitching if the throw-ins are interesting to the team trading a pitcher

Bosoxforlife: The Red Sox won 81 games last year and just added  a key part of the equation. I see them as contenders if Anthony or Campbell turn into Jackson Merrill, and do you see them getting anything out of Giolito?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I think they’re contenders for sure, partiuclarly after they add one more hitter, which I think they’ll do

Ben Clemens: really hard to know with Giolito

Ben Clemens: you have to assume zero-ish given the injury timeline, but with huge error bars

Jason N: Read a rumor that Padres were shopping Bogaerts. I’m guessing he would approve a trade back to Boston.  Would a framework work around Bogaerts and cease for story, Casas and yoshida?

Ben Clemens: I must be missing something

Ben Clemens: why would the Padres do htis?

Ben Clemens: they’re trading the best player in the deal (Cease) and not even saving much money

Ben Clemens: paying MORE money in the short term

Ben Clemens: Story is pretty clearly worse than Bogaerts for 2025

Ben Clemens: Yoshida is at best a question mark

Ben Clemens: this trade would make the Padres a lot worse in the short term, it’d create an awkward positional logjam at first/DH, and it would involve trading a pitcher they’re hoping will get them a good prospect or pivot piece to somehow make shortstop worse?

DeeBo: You’d expect a couple of jersey numbers to be retired if your team makes 7 straight ALCS and wins two World Series. After this latest run, anyone besides Altuve and potentially Yordan get theirs retired by the Astros?

Ben Clemens: Bregman?

Ben Clemens: like definitely him

Ben Clemens: maybe Verlander, he felt like a key part of those runs

John B: I’ve been big on Josh Naylor to the Giants, maybe for a couple of mid level SP prospects. Does this make sense to you?

Ben Clemens: It doesn’t really, for two reasons. One, I’m just not a Naylor believer. This may or may not be rational

Ben Clemens: two, I think LaMonte Wade does a lot of what he does, and arguably better

Ben Clemens: but at worst, at a similar level

Ben Clemens: I think that the Giants would be better served to address their rotation or perhaps try to get another star outfielder to pair with Ramos flanking JHL in center

Ben Clemens: and given that the farm is not wildly deep, trading meaningful pieces for a 1b/DH feels like it’s a stretch

RMR: How do you think teams process the not-trading-in-the-division conventional wisdom?  Tie-breaker? Demand more value? Just don’t consider it? Would love to see Suzuki in Cincinnati.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a tiebreaker, or close to it

Ben Clemens: I could see that trade working out maybe, it really depends on what the Cubs want to do. I think that moving Bellinger would happen first most likely

Bosoxforlife: Few things have shocked me more than the price of mediocre pitching this off-season. I thought that the Giolito deal last winter couldn’t be topped but $67 million for Severino has challenged it and this is with starters being used mostly as not much more than openers. It is crazy.

Ben Clemens: Severino probably got an A’s boost, but even including him, I’m with you

josh: should/will the tigers make a move to consolidate talent into a 3-win player? given the abundance of young role players and lack of above-average regulars (esp in the infield), and also the money to spend on a FA if they vacate a starting roster spot, this feels like a must if they’re serious about competing

Ben Clemens: they should have gone nuts trying to get Kyle Tucker, and probably they did

Ben Clemens: ‘consolidate talent into a 3-win player’ is an admirable goal

Ben Clemens: maybe it’s Bo Bichette?

Ben Clemens: but in looking through our projections, I’m trying to think which of these guys are on the block, and eh…. Bichette, maybe Yandy Diaz who doesn’t really feel like a star, and no one else who seems likely to be on the trade block

Ben Clemens: so yes, I think that they should invest in having more stars on their team, particularly via trade

Ben Clemens: I just think that is a tough needle to thread

Ben Clemens: on that note: time to go pick up some lunch

Ben Clemens: and hten back to digging through old prospect lists for a fun article I’m working on

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week, everyone, and a wonderful holiday season