Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/11/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s get going; I’m gonna chat for around an hour and a half today but I’d like to make it count

The person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: You know, I’m not actually sure today. Just got back from a working vacation (rent a house out in the countryside but then just work as normal from there, I highly recommend it)

Ben Clemens: So we’re a bit light on food in the house

Ben Clemens: perhaps a banh mi takeout

Davy Andrews: Hi Ben. Just saying hi.

Ben Clemens: Hey Davy

The pirate parrot: Which cruz will have a better season, Elly or Oneil?

Ben Clemens: Elly for me. Oneil is another of my constant player crushes but I just can’t get over how loud Elly’s tools are, and he made some serious improvements as the season went on that make me more confident as well

Dennis: If you were really Mike Elias writing under a pen name, would you trade any more Orioles position players for pitching in light of Bradish’s injury and Means’ rehab setbacks?  I know spring training doesn’t matter (a lot) but there’s a lot of players who look pretty good.

Ben Clemens: I might trade for some depth at this point. I’ve always been a bit of a Cole Irvin guy, though ,to the point where I wrote a LOT about him when the O’s traded for him, and I think that their bigger issue was getting top-end pitching talent, which they’ve already done

Ben Clemens: If it’s feeling like they don’t have enough juice after a month or two, there will be time to trade for more pitching

Oh noooo: You think Yanks gotta sign Snell if Cole’s arm is toast?

Bob: With the injury to Gerrit Cole what do you think the Yankees will do?

Ben Clemens: We have a lot of questions like this in the queue today

Ben Clemens: I mean…. they’ll panic! This seems very bad

Ben Clemens: But I recognize that that is not a real answer

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re going to cross their fingers that things work out roughly okay for Cole, and carry on without much change

Ben Clemens: If in a week that’s not the case, well, then they need to start considering Snell

Ben Clemens: That said, I don’t really buy the argument that Snell somehow has more leverage over them and he’ll suddenly get the kind of deal that wasn’t available beforehand

Ben Clemens: If Cole is hurt, I do think that the Yankees will just ignore the luxury tax consequences and sign a top starter

Ben Clemens: you don’t trade for Juan Soto and then not go for it

Baltimoron: Can you name one baseball writer you wish would write for FanGraphs?

Ben Clemens: Jeff Sullivan if we’re counting former writers

Ben Clemens: Sam Miller and Steve Brown are my two favorite writers/researchers who are active right now, but I don’t know how realistic getting them over here is

Gold Star: How do you think Mookie Betts, shortstop will work out for the Dodgers? (And why not just put Rojas there? It’s not like the team is hurting for offense.)

Anon21: Betts to shortstop seems a little wacky. If you’re Dave Roberts, at what point do you prioritize keeping your star in his comfort zone rather than keeping Gavin Lux, career 99 wRC+ hitter, in the lineup?

Ben Clemens: Here’s another question that I’m seeing a lot of in the queue

Ben Clemens: so if I didn’t pick your exact spin, maybe I’ll come back to it

Ben Clemens: I think that if you asked Mookie, he’d prefer to play shortstop

Ben Clemens: I also don’t buy the whole ‘eh, the offense is fine’

Ben Clemens: I’d rather have Gavin Lux than Miguel Rojas if my lineup permutations would allow it

Ben Clemens: it feels like they do

Ben Clemens: and I’m sure that if they don’t, the Dodgers will retreat from the plan, but figuring out a way to get Lux in the lineup seems veyr smart to me

bosoxforlife: Can you venture a guess on the length of the contracts Snell and Montgomery will eventually get and do you think the days of 6+ year deals for pitchers is fading rapidly?

Ben Clemens: I think that they’re both going to sign three-year deals with opt outs after each year

Ben Clemens: and uh, yes, I do think that’s happening

TomBruno23: Going to order one of those Rocket Bananas jerseys for yourself?

Ben Clemens: I have to be honest: no

Ben Clemens: It’s cool, but I already have a good amount of bananas gear and Im’ not a big fan of the Rocket as a person

Ben Clemens: ]immaculate taste in last names, though, of course

bosoxforlife: O’Neil hit two scalding rockets in the first two innings yesterday and I still can’t get enough of Elly. I will be doing a lot of channel switching to try to capture their AB’s this season

Idiotic Failson: I’ve been hearing speculation that the potential Cole injury increases the chances of a Snell signing for the Yankees. Color me skeptical, I haven’t seen any indication that they are interested in spending twice the amount required to secure his services. Do you agree?

Ben Clemens: I guess I covered this up above but I think it’s reasonable assuming the Cole injury is serious

Ben Clemens: if it’s not, I don’t see it

Me: o/u $40M guaranteed for Snell? (total, not AAV)

Ben Clemens: over

Quadzilla: for all the talent and hype around Strider, he gets hit hard way too much…is he more of Cease 2.0 with better ratios than Degrom?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that’s quite right, but I have never been a big Strider-is-new-deGrom guy

Ben Clemens: People throw around deGrom comps so liberally

Ben Clemens: some scout said Cole Ragans was lefty deGrom, like wtf

Ben Clemens: deGrom has a career 2.53 ERA! Since 2018 it’s 2.08! He’s thrown 400 fewer innings than Gerrit Cole in that time and is 1.3 WAR behind him for first among all pitchders

Ben Clemens: like, just stop trying to say that pitchers who seem pretty good are the next deGrom, no one is

Refugee: Do you believe the Lunch Question Asker is one person or many people who wear the cowl?

Ben Clemens: I’m not gonna pull IP addresses and try to find out or anything, and I’m not even sure if I could. I like to think that it’s one person largely but that should they falter, someone will step in

Zach: I just found out you worked for Goldman and Citadel. I’m curious if you have any links to discussions you’ve had about your previous work life and the work-life balance trade-off you experienced? Not to get into numbers, but presumably you left a lot of money on the table moving over to Baseball.

Ben Clemens: You know, I’m not sure I’ve ever had a good solid discussion of that, which means I should probably do that. Perhaps on FG Audio when we reboot, or maybe a one-off stream or something

Ben Clemens: So keep a pin in this, let’s say, because I’m going to try to do something about it, but I’ll give you a tl;dr

Ben Clemens: I greatly enjoyed working at both of those places, I really loved my coworkers and even management

Ben Clemens: I know a lot of people who have carried on doing it and been very happy. I thought my work-life balance was workable, even, and man do I love making numbers dance around and solving puzzles

Ben Clemens: I just wanted to do something different; I was already writing about baseball for free on a Cardinals blog, and I didn’t quit specficially to work for FG by any means

Ben Clemens: in fact, I made up my mind to leave before the job I applied for here opened up

Ben Clemens: Do what you love and if you stop loving it, consider changing what you do would be my advice

Ben Clemens: but I really do want to talk more about it. some other time!

TomBruno23: Sign Michael Lorenzen depth for pitching and the inevitable Stanton breakdown.

Ben Clemens: Love it

TomBruno23: You are a St. Louis Cardinals season ticket rep…sell me on jumping on board for 2024.

Ben Clemens: Do you like Ozzie Smith?

Ben Clemens: Yes you do

Ben Clemens: Don’t kid around

Ben Clemens: Come watch Masyn Winn, because his defense is going to be an absolute blast

Ben Clemens: And if there’s another iconic shortstop in St. Louis, you want to be able to tell people that you were there when he broke in

Cardinals: With their banged up OF, do you see them signing Pham or Duvall?

Ben Clemens: ohhhh man, a Pham reunion would make me very happy

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s that likely, though, because I really don’t feel that they’re hurting for that level of outfield talent

Ben Clemens: and it’s just creating a slightly-delayed logjam

Ben Clemens: I think it’s more likely that they’ll give minor leaguers some run. Look at how much they let Burleson play last year

Billy: Why did they have to hurt Noot. I am broken.

Ben Clemens: so sad

Guest: Two points: this site only has great writers, but Jeff Sullivan was probably the best ever (as a writer, anyway). Nice of you to single him out.

Ben Clemens: Truly one of the greatest

TomBruno23: 9 days until real baseball maybe more or less I can never figure out massive time zone changes. Soon!

Ben Clemens: Soon!

Tacoby Bellsbury: Thank you for publishing an article today that didn’t have conclusive results and undermined your hypothesis in a way. Way to leave your ego at the door, so to speak.

Ben Clemens: Ooh is it out?

Ben Clemens: I loved this one

Ben Clemens: I was sooooo ready to say that Kevin Gausman is doing something that no one else is

Ben Clemens: and then whoops, no

Just read your article: I really enjoyed your just-published article–do you think that one variable that maybe is impossible to quantify that prevents clearer patterns from emerging in the data is the benefit a hitter gets when he knows that he has to swing? (It seemed like you were accounting for this with the difference between 1-2 and 2-2 counts, but still, what is it worth to the hitter to know that if he doesn’t make contact on his next swing, he’s out. Probably makes a sizable difference based on the hitter.

Ben Clemens: Absolutely

Ben Clemens: Not only knowing that he has to swing, but understanding that weak contact is better than a whiff in a way that isn’t true in a 1-0 count

TomBruno23: How about Messi not suiting up last night at home. Where is the outrage? Ooops I might be in the wrong chat.

Ben Clemens: Messi was at the Oscars

Ben Clemens: well, the dog named Messi, at least, the true MVP in my book

birds birds birds: Joey Votto has a home, hurray!

Ben Clemens: Truly tremendous

Ben Clemens: I’m rooting for him

Sodo Mojo: Does J.D. Davis to the Mariners make sense if the M’s can get the Giants to take some of the salary hit?

Ben Clemens: Absolutely, 100%

Ben Clemens: I have to say that seeing J.D. Davis on waivers makes me understand the Suarez trade more

Guest: I’ve been invited to join a regular whist game with my father-in-law and a couple of other 75 year olds. Do you know what a whist is?

Ben Clemens: I don’t but you should play

Ben Clemens: I love playing card games with old people

Ben Clemens: It’s like the version of my hobbies in today’s world that was available when they were kids

Ben Clemens: I have a lot of fun playing bridge with my dad and his friends

Nats Fan: Yes/No Will the Nats have the worst record in the NL?

Ben Clemens: I do not think so

Guest: The Mets are close enough to dominating their division that Snell would be worth the $80M he would cost them for 140 IP at an ERA around 3.9, right?

Ben Clemens: Laughing emoji

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: actually, Joy emoji

Matt: No they mean Cole Ragans is if deGrom just started throwing with his left hand starting now.

Ben Clemens: ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Ben Clemens: Okay now I’m in

birds birds birds: Surely Snell/Monty already have 3 year deals with opt-outs on the table to them.  So… they just haven’t personally accepted they’re not getting 5-6 years?  Or they think they can squeeze another $1-2M on the AAV for the 3 years?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, something like this but I think leaning towards the first

Nate: do the fangraphs writers ever consider impersonating each other in the chats for a week and see who notices

Ben Clemens: Absolutely not. Let’s go get some Skyline Chili

J: For the record, I am not the what’s for lunch asker, but I was ready to ask if they didn’t appear.

Reputation: Who are some low-recognition prospect names that are going to get at least 250 PAs this year/contribute on a major league level in some way? Is James Wood going to play in at least 80 games, for example?

Ben Clemens: Seller of Wood getting that many games, though I really hope he does

Ben Clemens: this is not a place where I’m particularly plugged in

Ben Clemens: so I think I’ll defer this question to people who know the ins and outs a little bit better

BiscuitPants: Something I discovered while perusing the leaderboards is that last year Corbin Carroll had the second greatest baserunning season of all time (and the greatest since 1887!): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&ind=1&sortcol…. Firstly if you want this as a free article idea go for it lol. I’d love to see any breakdown you can do. But second, does Fangraphs have any more granular data on baserunning to help understand this? Or any plans to add it? UBR and wGDP are kind of a black box to me. (I know BRef has some event-level stuff on their season page but it’s limited and hard to use and none of it flows into their player pages or leaderboards.)

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely something I’m interested in writing about. I have been meaning to look into UBR at a more granular level

Ben Clemens: mabye this will be the kick in the butt I need to start doing it

GraphsFan: When did your own baseball playing skill max out? Any fun anecdotes from your playing days?

Ben Clemens: You know what is shocking?

Ben Clemens: I stopped playing in little league

Ben Clemens: I played football and basketball and ran track in high school, but I was never any good at baseball

RTJ: Roster Resource surprised me when I looked at San Diego this week: Jackson Merrill in the starting CF spot with almost 500 at bats. Agree?

Ben Clemens: Let me put it this way: Jason is the best person in the industry at figuring out playing time, and he’s also the biggest Padres fan I know

Ben Clemens: I would trust his Padres PT projections more than anyone else’s

wheelhouse: when are the yankees going to trade Soto

Ben Clemens:

Why not Zoidberg: Any concern about the Acuna injury from a fantasy standpoint?

Ben Clemens: In a draft, I’m still taking him first and not particularly close

Ben Clemens: I assume that the chance of lower steals would erode his value somewhat in an auction, but I’m not an auction guy

O’s fan: I am thrilled to even consider this, and likely crazy, but is Coby Mayo a better prospect than Jackson Holiday? What do you see as Holliday’s carrying skill so to speak (besides all of them, even though none are 70 grades like Mayo’s power/arm).

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think Holliday’s carrying tool is everything. Hit/power combos at shortstop are so rare

Ben Clemens: and to be fair, I think that he might end up at second or third, I really like Henderson at short

Ben Clemens: but yeah, I’d still take Holliday over Mayo if I had to choose

Ben Clemens: at, say, 70% confidence

Colton: Seen quite a few people say its the Twins division to lose. I don’t buy that at all, they made no major acquisitions this off season and even lost several key contributors to their team from last year. I realize the division overall is pretty soft, but the Twins are not a great ball club on paper by any means in my opinion. Why doesn’t it feel like other people see this?

Ben Clemens: I just disagree with you. I thought the Twins were quite good last year, they project well again this year, and their division is putrid

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’re as good of a team as the AL East squads, which is how they project for 85 wins in a weak division while the Jays project for 83.5 in a tough one. But I don’t know, are the Guardians gonna challenge them? The Tigers?

Ben Clemens: Like maybe! But it doesn’t feel like a smart bet

Guest: Among all qualified SP since 1960, deGrom is top 3 in career ERA, FIP, ERA-, FIP-… his dominance in his healthy years feels honestly underrated.

Ben Clemens: I agree with this

TomBruno23: Winn’s defense will be a blast and hopefully he is not moved to CF so this year’s Mark Ellis (Brandon Crawford) can play too much Never Forget Mike Matheny.

Ben Clemens: I can pretty much guarantee that that won’t happen

Ben Clemens: I’ll personally tempt Crawford back to the bay with some garlic fries and my epic retelling of his elite pitching appearance (I was walking out of the stadium and ran back to see him pitch) if he starts eating into Winn’s shortstop playing time

Ben Clemens: Also I just have to show you this tweet of his

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna ntake a quick break while I dig into it

Ben Clemens: https://twitter.com/MasynWinn/status/1543096300324982785

Ben Clemens: there we go

Ben Clemens: he’s perusing Cardinals prospect twitter and replying to gifs of himself, what a legend

Ben Clemens: also the play in that gif is one of my favorites, what an absolute madman to even attempt that throw

Chicago Steve: Is it completely nuts to suggest Wyatt Langford play some first for the Rangers with Lowe almost certain to start the year on the IL?

Ben Clemens: It’s definitely not nuts

Ben Clemens: their defensive outfield is such a logjam

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Where between the Montgomery Biscuits and the Rocket City Trash Pandas should the line have been drawn on team names?

Ben Clemens: Much closer to trash pandas I think

Ben Clemens: Montgomery Biscuits is one of the best names in the minors

Ben Clemens: you can’t draw the line too close to that and end up with the delightful diversity of minor league names

Sodo Mojo: If you haven’t played Splendor Duel yet you should the rare time a game improves when they make a two person edition.

Ben Clemens: I haven’t, but I will look into it for sure

Ben Clemens: I played a ton of Cascadia last week with my wife (we were in the woods so it felt appropriate) and man, it’s great as two player

harry: How are you feeling about Alec Burleson? Do you buy his good peripherals from last year? Does Donovan get any playing time in the outfield ahead of him?

Ben Clemens: It pains me b/c Burly was a success of some of my minor league data scouting, but I don’t think it’s working

Ben Clemens: sure, his xwOBA was better than his wOBA, but he wasn’t making impact contact at the rate I’d hope for with his defensive skills

Ben Clemens: and he wasn’t walking enough to make up for it

deBride: As an 18 year old in A ball Dwight Gooden threw 191 IP with 10 CG and 6 SHO racking up an even 300 K and 112 BB in the process. No question, that’s just freaking insane. Then again I guess 1983 is over 40 years ago now so…

Ben Clemens: lol

Ben Clemens: that’s great

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens: Now this one I’m pretty sure is multiple people

deBride: How many more innings will Jacob deGrom throw?

Ben Clemens: In his career? I’m a relentless deGrom optimist so I’m gonna say 500

Dmx: Whist is alot like bridge. Both a ton of fun!

Ben Clemens: there you have it

Nats Fan: How much of a darkhorse is the Tigers?

Colton: That’s fair, I just don’t think they’re getting anywhere close to the production they got from Gray and Maeda down the stretch with a combination of Desclafani, Paddack and Varland and they still have some questions in production from a lot of guys in their offense in my opinion. Guess we’ll see how it plays out over the next couple month! But I definitely think the Tigers are sleepers for that division.

Ben Clemens: They’re definitely my second choice to win the division

Ben Clemens: a quick look at gambling markets has them in the +350 to +400 region, so like 20-25% area. We have them at 18%. I think I like them more in the 30% range, so I guess that makes them dark horses

bosoxforlife: Watching Brandon Crawford in anything but a Giants uniform is something I never wanted to see, like Dewey Evans spending a year with the Orioles after he was washed up. It was not a pretty sight.

Ben Clemens: It’s going to be very strange. Crawford grew up around here evne

Ben Clemens: I cannot tell you how many delightful old ladies I’ve seen wearing Crawford gear and absolutely ignoring the rest of the Giants to root for him

Guest: in 2021, deGrom was heading for a season which would have surpassed Gibson in 1968 in terms of ERA+

Ben Clemens: You don’t have to tell me that

Matt Damon: ONE. PERSON.

Matt Damon: SINCE. 2018.

Matt Damon: SINCE. ENO. SARRIS.

Ben Clemens: Well then

Ben Clemens: Can’t argue with that

todd: JD Davis released and SFG doesn’t need to pay salary? How does that work, I thought it was agreed upon already.

Ben Clemens: So, his salary was not a contract, it was decided in arbitration

Ben Clemens: The way this works is kinda weird

Ben Clemens: and I’m going to do my best to explain it. Arb contracts don’t lock in until Opening Day. Until then, it’is something like 30 days of pay guaranteed (45 if it’s very close to the season)

Ben Clemens: so the new CBA got rid of that rule for players who don’t go to a hearing

Ben Clemens: but Davis went to a hearing, which means that his salary doesn’t guarantee until opening day

birds birds birds: So anyone who goes to arbitration can be released and not be paid?? Wow, talk about a massive threat to the player if they don’t agree to the club’s arbitration offer.

Ben Clemens: yeah….

Magoo: Biggio quietly turning his career around?  I see a late blooming Ben Zobrist developing, very valuable to a contending club.

Ben Clemens: I’ve been a big Biggio guy for a long time

Ben Clemens: so I’m in!

Dylan: Thoughts on Astros chances on remaining a pennant contender in 2024.

Ben Clemens: Yes

Derek: Are you playing Ottoneu this year again? If so, how is/are the team/s looking?

Ben Clemens: I am playing, but I’m not feeling amazing about my team. I’m kinda stuck in a didn’t rebuild enough rut

Ben Clemens: My best players are BWJ, Semien, Alonso, Luis Robert, McLain, MH2, Will Smith.

Ben Clemens: Oh and Framber/Buehler/Bello/Ashcraft/Helsley on the other side

Ben Clemens: I just feel like I’m a little bit short on impact talent

G4: Do you think Farhan intentionally went to a hearing on Davis for this reason? Even if he suspected SF would lose the battle of salary exchange?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, this seems like too high-level of thinking for a marginal gain. They didn’t know they were gonna sign Chapman

bosoxforlife: In the battle to lose the most games this year have the White Sox dropped to the level of the A’s?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’ll take the Sox under over the A’s under any day, which is shocking to say

farm: Have you played Stardew Valley? How about the board game version?

Ben Clemens: No to both. That said, I walked by my local game store and they had the board game in their display case. It looks AMAZING

RTJ: The most productive starting pitcher on the Red Sox this year will be:

Ben Clemens: Bello

Michael Nelson Trout: Trout: Is he still great, or just very good?

Ben Clemens: Ugh, I think he’s just very good

TomBruno23: Pitching season lines from that Gooden Era are great. Bobby Witt Jr.’s dad through 97 for Oklahoma in 1985 with 78 BB and 118 K and Texas still took him 3rd overall then after 35 AA innings with 44 BB and 39 K he opens 1986 in the MLB rotation. With predictable results.

bosoxforlife: Never forget that a player can have three 80 tools, but if the hit tool is a 30 then he isn’t going to be a major league regular. Does the name Elly DeLaCruz, with 80 power, 80 speed and 80 arm, come to mind?

Ben Clemens: Hit tool is definitely the most important tool. That said, I think Elly is easily going to be a major league regular so maybe not the best exmaple

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: How often do the Yankees go for a one-year rental who’s very likely to test free agency? Probably not very often

Ben Clemens: They used to fairly often

Alanis M.: my first big hit was “You Ottoneu”

Ben Clemens: and I’m here to remind you of the mess you left when you went away

Ben Clemens: is what I told Craig Edwards when I inherited his team

J: People gotta stop throwing out Zobrist comparisons for merely good utility players. It massively underrates someone who put up an 8.7 win season and consistently produced at an all star level.

Ben Clemens: how about Baby Zobrist

Dodgers Blue: RE Cardinals outfield nagging injury situation: you wouldn’t consider signing Michael Taylor to play CF until Edman is ready – and perhaps even beyond that?  You could also move Taylor over to RF and use Walker as your DH.

Ben Clemens: MAT is someone I’d sign

Ben Clemens: because he brings a different skill and would still be useful in the Cards’ plans after the other guys return

Ben Clemens: so totally agreed here, and I think it’s a completely different idea than Pham or Duvall

bosoxforlife: I can’t shake this thought that keeps sneaking into my consciousness that the Reds are going to just sweep away the NL Central this season.

bosoxforlife: I was lucky enough to follow my childhood dream almost to the brass ring. I was good enough to make several starts on the PGA Tour but never questioned my decision even when I came up a gnat’s eyelash short. My advice to every young person on this blog is Climb Every Mountain doing something you love.

Ben Clemens: Two different messages from the same person, because I forgot to reply to the first

Ben Clemens: uh, yeah, I think the Reds are interesting and under-regarded

Max: Does it bother you as much as it does me when an article says something like “the Dodgers spent a billion dollars during the offseason.”? They didn’t spend a billion dollars, they committed to spending an amount of money over a fairly long period of time. very different.

Ben Clemens: Hmmmmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: I mean, it hadn’t bothered me

Ben Clemens: and I agree it’s silly

Ben Clemens: but I don’t think I’ll get up past marginally annoyed about it

Ben Clemens: there are just far dumber things that the baseball media do

Ben Clemens: even counting me in that group

Andrew: What do you expect from Yainer Diaz in 2024? I’m skeptical of him having an .850-ish OPS again if he never walks, but he is potentially a huge offensive upgrade at C (Maldy was awful).

Ben Clemens: I think he’s going to be a borderline top 10 catcher right away

Refugee: +1 for null hypothesis

Patrick Dubuque at BP recently published an article that concluded no form of doubles is predictable year-to-year. It’s not a sexy outcome, but it’s real research!

Ben Clemens: We do a decent amount of that here. I like to think that Meg’s leadership has given us a lot more confidence to write stuff that is interesting even if the conclusions are disappointing

Order in the Court: So Aaron Judge is being shut down for a couple of days because, according to Boone, he is “mid-spring beat up”, yet this comes not long after Judge himself said his toe will have to be managed for the rest of his career.  Do you think it’s the toe that flared up?  Could this be more serious than it seems?  Boy, not a great day for Yankee news.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, definitely seems worrisome to me

Tacoby Bellsbury: Joey Gallo probably had a 25 hit tool and most definitely was a major-league regular. 80 game power and 70 defense covers up a whole lot of sins.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, he’s a good example

KG: Is Kevin Goldstein still with the Twins front office?  His insight into the inner workings of teams was always a fun read here.  Do you all keep in touch?

Ben Clemens: He is, and I do talk to him from time to time. Probably most frequently about White Lotus, if I’m being honest with you

Ben Clemens: or sometimes after I write a nice/mean article about the Twins he will be mock elated/annoyed

bosoxforlife: Ortiz and Ramirez or Judge and Soto. Who do want?

Ben Clemens: I’m a hopeless Juan Soto fan so Soto and Judge

Ben Clemens: but man, it’s tough

RTJ: that’s like when I buy take-out with my credit card. I didn’t spend $40, I agreed to spend $40 in a month or so in return for food right now

Ben Clemens: Lol that’s one way of looking at it for sure

Ben Clemens: but I think it’s more like a mortgage almost

Ben Clemens: you didn’t spend 400k on that house

Ben Clemens: you agreed to pay back 400k over a long time

Ben Clemens: and yes, 400k, what am i, living in the past?

BenZo: Baby Zobrist needs at least a ring or CS MVP

J: Baby Zobrist = Craig Counsell?

Ben Clemens: bang

Greg: Fair to say that J.D. Davis’s agent dropped the ball here? Losing that guarantee seems like too much risk to take on just to fight over a mere $350K in arb.

Ben Clemens: Yeah. Like, I didn’t realize the way this worked exactly, but I am not a major league agent

Ben Clemens: I’m actually not sure whether it’s worth the risk

Ben Clemens: 350k is not nothing

Ben Clemens: Like, is this happening to 5% of players who go to arb? No

Ben Clemens: but if they didn’t talk about the risks and rewards, it’s not great

The 6ix: Is there any research on the in-season performance of pitchers who report a dead arm or some general arm soreness in spring?

Ben Clemens: No but I’d be interested in reading it if there were

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

Guest: After listening to Ben Lindbergh on Effectively Wild, I hear all of your chat comments in my head in his voice.  Totally weird, or perfectly normal?

Ben Clemens: Totally normal

Ben Clemens: I hear a lot of things in Ben’s voice, I’ve been listening to EW for a decade at this point

Princess Leia: Who TF is Mary Kate Olsen?

Ben Clemens: Oh right, you’re not from around here

Ben Clemens: Alderaan didn’t get Full House reruns?

Nats Fan: a few teams could still use a solid Dh.  JD Davis will find a home.

Ben Clemens: Yeah there’s no question of him not finding a job somewhere. It’s all about the salary

Ben Clemens: when you’re looking at his risk/reward

Darryl Vanilla: Have you tried Forbidden Jungle yet?

Ben Clemens: No but I’m absolutely going to. I really liked Desert and Island

Princess Leia: Spring training, and all that.. but my goodness, Luis Gil’s fastball looks sensational today

GraphsFan: How often do you sit down to watch / observe / scout a full game? Do you skip around games via MLB.tv? Or do the box scores + Baseball Savant + Twitter tell you everything you need to know?

Ben Clemens: I’m not a scout. I do watch a ton of games, though

Ben Clemens: an entire game? Eh, maybe not THAT often, I do like to flit around

Ben Clemens: I also go to a lot of Giants games during the season

Ben Clemens: I get a lot of info from box scores, savant, and twitter, that’s for sure. But particularly for writing Five Things, you have to be watching the game, not just seeing a box score

Ben Clemens: so many of those “things” are little observations rather than scoreline stats

Greg: “5% of people that go to arb” doesn’t seem like the correct way to think about it though. I can look at the average probability of being attacked by a shark but that does not consider whether my client is a surfer or a landlocked 80 year old. But I do know that about my client, or I should.

Ben Clemens: Right, yeah, I’m not saying that the answer is obviously one way or another. But I don’t think it’s as easy as saying ‘eh 350k is nothing, get a guarantee’

Jake S: If you could get everyone at FanGraphs together for one game night, what would you pick? I played Blood on the Clocktower for the first time this weekend and I feel like Dan’s energy would have been incredible.

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: oh man, I’m looking at my board game shelf and I have a great idea. Rush MD. It’s real-time based and there’s a lot of yelling which sounds perfect for hijinks

Tim: Orioles prospect not named Jackson Holliday who is going to have the biggest impact this season?

Ben Clemens: Westburg if he still counts

Ben Clemens: Mayo otherwise

Wigglebot23: Is there any merit to the idea that rest weakens top teams in the Division Series? Or is it just a fluke?

Ben Clemens: Dan and I both wrote about this last year and neither of us found anything

Ben Clemens: we used extra-rest games going back a long time

Ben Clemens: Wild Card era, maybe?

wheelhouse: more likely: the yankees suddenly believe adding Snell is worth adding 210% of whatever his market rate is to their payroll plus tax bill, or hal steinbrenner says “Oh thank god, an excuse to suck! What a relief!” and trades Soto et al

Ben Clemens: I mean, Soto is just not getting traded

Krusty: Let’s say a club decided to select and develop its starting pitchers for endurance and durability — they want to create a new crop of Workhorses. The goal would be at least 00s types of workloads(Halladay/Johnson/Sabathia, etc., 35ish GS, 250+IP, 7-10+ CG) and, ideally, more like 80s-90s levels.

A series of interrelated questions: do you think it *could* be done in the modern game? Would it just be the old process of picking Big Strong Guys and then seeing which arms survive getting slagged? Would it work? Would any of those pitchers be any good?

Ben Clemens: I think it might work but that you’d blow out a lot of arms around the way. One thing I’m not sure about is whether they’d really be able to get guys to buy in on not being max effort

Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s your guilty music pleasure?

Ben Clemens: Neil Cicierega

Ben Clemens: I love mashups

Ben Clemens: b/c I love pop music but I also love new music

Ben Clemens: so hearing new music being made using pop hooks I like? Glorious

Key Flaw: As a fan of both Stardew Valley and board games, I am here to tell you that the board game is really bad, both as a board game and as a simulation of Stardew Valley.

Ben Clemens: but it’s so preeeeeettty

Princess Leia: Ben, old friend… Jedi master… buddy, ol pal. What’s Full House?

And yeah, I’m serious. Never seen it.

Star Full House Wars: The younglings to Anakin, “Have Mercy”

Colton: I don’t like the guy, but I feel like Bauer is more likely to end up with the Yankees than Snell right now because of the salary/luxury tax aspect. Am I crazy?

Ben Clemens: I think you are, I don’t think it’s happening without some more contrition on Bauer’s part and I mean……

Broken Bat: Cole’s’ injury.. suddenly Boston looks very competitive don’t they? Is Rafaela going to make their pitching that much better because of his glove? Bet they wish they had Sale now…

Ben Clemens: I’m about as interested in the Sox as I was yesterday

Ben Clemens: which is to say, I thought that they were in it before Giolito got hurt, and now I think they’re only in it if they get some great outcomes on the pitching side

Ben Clemens: It’d be one thing if the Yankees were the only team ahead of them in the ALE pecking order but it’s legit everyone

Ben Clemens: the Yankees finished fourth in the division last year! Their ace getting hurt suddenly boosts the SOx?

J: Fantasy Q: 5×5 13-team mixed. Would you keep Ragans in the 9th round (FAAB pickup) or Esteury Ruiz in the 13th? Can have one other keeper, will be Elly in the 25th.

Ben Clemens: Ragans by a mile

Ben Clemens: I get it, those steals are amazing, but I think you have to worry about playing time with Ruiz at least a little

Jared: Any pitchers you are excited about who added new pitches this offseason?

Ben Clemens: I’m holding off judgment on the Strider curveball b/c I don’t quite get it

Ben Clemens: So how about this: Erick Fedde’s sweeper

Guest: Would you say the Dodgers or the Braves have a higher ceiling? Purely hypothetical

Ben Clemens: Braves I think. I think that they have more players who I look at and go ‘oh he could be a superstar and isn’t yet’

Ben Clemens: I think the Dodgers have a higher floor htough

Broken Bat: Love your insights. Why do so many pitchers report arm soreness as ST begins and endures? Dont they throw away from ST like in Jan. To get ready? Seems like they wait until ST and then the injuries occur?

Ben Clemens: Sure does seem that way. I don’t have any specific dirt on this though

diadem: Tyler Black’s numbers seem so much better than Ortiz. What are Black’s chances for impactful PT this year?

Ben Clemens: I mean, his offensive numbers are better but he’s a bad defender instead of a stellar one

Ben Clemens: that said, I’m higher on him than Eric is

Ben Clemens: It seems like pretty much everyone is? He made most other top 100’s

Ben Clemens: I like Ortiz more b/c I think that infield defense is a great carrying tool, while Black doesn’t have an obvious defensive home. BUt I think they’re at least somewhat close, particularly since the Brewers will likely need some help at first base

Marshall: I think last season you said in a chat that you thought Mookie would be the best SS in baseball if he played there full time. Now that he’s permanently (for now) a SS, do you still think he’ll be the best?

Ben Clemens: No, I think that was if he’d been doing it for a long time. He’s also 31 now, and defense tends to peak a bit earlier. That said, I think he’ll be a comfortably plus defender at short

Michael: Would JD Davis fix the Blue Jays offseason?

Ben Clemens: no but they should absolutely add him if they can

Insert Witty Name Here: Just passed along the working vacation recommendation to the wife and she loved it. Thank you!

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah I cannot recommend this highly enough

Ben Clemens: We like to go places that are in the woods, because it’s just hard to feel stressed out about work if you look outside your house and it’s just all nature around

Ben Clemens: But whatever your happy place is generally works

Ben Clemens: We’re actually looking into buying a place so we can do it more frequently, I am just a much happier person when I’m out in the woods (and I’m already a happy person in general)

Key Flaw: You have 80 points to put into both hit tool and power for a prospect, how do you distribute them? 20/60, 30/50, 40/40?

Ben Clemens: so let’s say I have 80 points to add from the 20 baseline

Ben Clemens: I think I’d go 65/55 hit/power

Ben Clemens: b/c both 70/50 and 60/60 sounded okay to me so I split the difference

Ken: Do you think the Royals will get close to 81 wins this year?  In a weak division, I feel they should get pretty close

Ben Clemens: Yeah, fairly close

Ben Clemens: I think that their pitching additions really help on that front

Ben Clemens: I think they end up ahead of the Guardians, very hot take I think

heyhey: Would you rather have Bo Bichette for 10/350 and Vlad goes to the Yankees or the opposite?

Ben Clemens: Bo and give Vlad to the Yankees

Ben Clemens: as a long-term card-carrying ‘vlad is just a good first baseman not an mvp’ member, I would prefer the tougher defensive position guy

Marshall: RE: Mookie at shortstop, I was referring to best overall, not best defender.

Ben Clemens: ohhhhh

Ben Clemens: Yeah, haha

Ben Clemens: Right now I think he’s the best shortstop

Tim: Orioles roster looking CROWDED with the way some of the youngsters are playing. If you had to guess today, which prospects break camp with the club? Holliday? Cowser? Kjerstad? Stowers? Mayo?

Ben Clemens: Wow, that’s a tough one. I’m not plugged into the ins and outs of daily roster stuff like the beat writers are, so I’m not sure you should take my word for it, but I’d go with Holliday most likely, Cowser next, then Mayo

Ken: Is Volpe going to be in the same conversation as Elly?

Ben Clemens: Sure, “let’s talk about some young shortstops”

i’m just Kenley Jansen: Greinke gonna be a mid-season pickup?

Ben Clemens: hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: I don’t know! I want Greinke on my team as a fan

Ben Clemens: I truly don’t know how much he has left, or what he’s looked like in workouts

Grandal Richuk: If Mookie ends up playing SS full time, is he the MVP favorite if the offense stays steady? Has anyone won MVP as an outfielder and an infielder?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the answer to the second question but I have to assume no

Ben Clemens: I think that I’d still take Acuna as the favorite, and Mookie is second right now

Ben Clemens: that sounds about right to me

Farhandrew Zaidman: If we’re talking about young shortstops, what’s your handicap for the chances McLain ends up with the more productive career over Elly?

Ben Clemens: 35%

Ben Clemens: I’m a big McLain fan too

Ben Clemens: I pushed him and Elly both perhaps irresponsibly high in my trade value rankings last year

These was one!: I’m pretty sure Robin Yount did the MVP IF/OF thing.

Ben Clemens: Oh hey, you are correct

Ben Clemens: I did not realize he won the ’89 MVP, sorry to my Brewers fan relatives

Marshall: Can a team ever have “enough” offense so that it makes sense to punt offense at a position in favor of defense? In other words, are there nonlinearities that make score an additional run less valuable than saving an additional run?

Ben Clemens: Wonderful question that I don’t think I have enough time to dig into here

Ben Clemens: but I think the answer is pretty close to no

Ben Clemens: non-linearity kind of works the other way

Ben Clemens: the better the rest of yhour offense is, the more PA

Greg: Hank Greenberg also did it, first base and left field

Ben Clemens: okay fine, I was wrong

bosoxforlife: What do the Orioles do? So many young players who look like they belong and so few positions. I think Mike Elias is afraid of making the next “Jeff Bagwell for …….. ” and getting nothing in return.

Ben Clemens: Look, respect to them for trading for Corbin Burnes. That’s the kind of trade I’ve been saying they should make. I think that they’ll end up making a deadline deal this year to ease some of the prospect pressure, but if I were them, I’d be willing to wait a little bit to see who pans out and who doesn’t now

Danny Valencia: are you a believer in the Dominic Canzone breakout? (>2.0fWAR)

Ben Clemens: I’m not

Ben Clemens: But I will say, that’s a low bar to clear. Spike some defensive metrics and I could see it

Wigglebot23: Did Gabriel Moreno deserve the Gold Gloves for NL catcher?

Ben Clemens: No, I think that Patrick Bailey did

Ben Clemens: but Moreno had an awesome defensive season, it’s not like he had no business being in the running

Farhandrew Zaidman: Before/After July 1 – when will the Dodgers make a change at starting SS?

Ben Clemens: Honestly, I think after, I think they’ll just end up with this working somehow

Guest: How about Harper winning an MVP at first base this year?  We could have *two* players nabbing the IN/OF MVP duo.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s that likely to win an MVP at this point in his career, but stranger things have absolutely happened

Ben Clemens: Alright, I’m gonna go try to scrounge up some lunch

Ben Clemens: wish me luck, guy who asks the lunch question

Ben Clemens: Thanks for chatting with me today, everyone, and have a wonderful week