Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/14/22

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to my first chat of the HOT HOT STOVE season

Ben Clemens: I might have to call this off early if more deals come through, since we need writers to write words about them and I’m a writer, so let’s just get started right away and aim for a high density of questions answered per minute.

Juan Pursuit: Thoughts on the Nats signing Cruz?

Ben Clemens: Like it

Ben Clemens: It’s not gonna make them incredible, but it’s going to win them more games, and I think that having Nelson Cruz on your team is a really great idea if you want your young hitters to improve

Ben Clemens: Do I have a mathematical way to prove that? I absolutely do not

Ben Clemens: But their payroll is going down down down, and they don’t have a lot of obvious ways to spend it, so I like the idea of getting a player who will be good and fun this year without tying things up long-term if they decide it’s not a fit

Ben Clemens: Also if someone wants a big bat at the trade deadline, they now know who to call

Ben Clemens: The Nats weren’t gonna be good regardless this year, might as well be fun

Appa Yip Yip: I’m glad you’re as befuddled by that trade as everyone else. It’s the baseball trade version of a Tumblr post where someone writes “what is she thinking” and it’s a picture of their cat. It’s so weird! Baseball.

Ben Clemens: yeah, don’t quite get it

Derek: Really enjoyed your write-up of the bizarre Twins-Yankees trade. I couldn’t really figure that one out either so I’m glad people smarter than me are coming to the same (non-) conclusion! Also incredibly disappointed that both Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa gave in so quickly and easily to the Yankees’  oppressive anti-facial hair decree…

Ben Clemens: I guess you can say that IKF is just really under-valued by projectoins?

Ben Clemens: but also, the Twins are being frugal without an end point in mind?

Ben Clemens: And the Yankees are going to use two backup catchers as their catcher?

Ben Clemens: I’m just very confused and I want to see more before I give it a final grade for either team

Ben Clemens: Trevor Story to the Twins makes this all SO much more lgoical

baseballenjoyer: This is less pressing with McCullers now out for an indefinite amount of time, but how do you think the Astros should handle their logjam of rotation quality arms? (Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier and Odorizzi)

Ben Clemens: I think they should laugh giddily and flaunt it in front of their competitors

Ben Clemens: Too many arms, what a problem to hvae

Ben Clemens: For example…. McCullers is now out for an indefinite amount of time!

Ben Clemens: Yeah, fine, if they have to use all six, I guess Javier and Garcia are on the fringes but great problem to have. Just go 6-man rotation for a bit if you have to, it’ll work itself out

Colton Anderson: What are the odds of the A’s trading one of the Matt’s before the end of today?

Ben Clemens: I have a two-hour commitment around 5 PT today, so I think you should plan on them being traded in that window

Ben Clemens: I do think that Olson will be traded first and that it will probably happen soon; seems like there are a lot of teams looking to fix first base and that they have urgency in it so that if they miss on Olson they can pivot to Freeman

Ben Clemens: Chapman doesn’t have nearly as clear of a substitute so the market will likely  move more slowly

Appa Yip Yip: Given the Jays sample size of fixing 2 out of 2 lefties with good stuff and mediocre results last year Kikuchi is a lock to improve yes? That’s how math works?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think Kikuchi is a near-lock to improve, yes

Ben Clemens: From his second-half form, at least

Ben Clemens: Which was quite bad

Ben Clemens: I can’t decide between thinking that the Jays maybe paid too much and just liking the fact that they understand the need to build a good rotation

Ben Clemens: I do find it a LITTLE strange that they signed Kikuchi for 3/36 instead of Matz for 4/44 though

Reuben: Does Fangraphs weight cumulative defensive WAR as the season progresses? Is some of the high variation hidden by weighting toward average? Or is it presented as is, with an understanding that it will stabilize as we approach 162 (or more)?

Ben Clemens: The second

Ben Clemens: I guess which you should do is kind of a philosophical question, but we do the second because it’s procedurally easier

Appa Yip Yip: How much Schwarber in left is too much Schwarber in left? Asking for a team with Vladdy at 1st.

Ben Clemens: Matt Olson just got traded

Ben Clemens: But…. any amount of Schwarber in left is too much at the moment IMO

Ben Clemens: he could DH/1B/pinch of outfield in an emergency, but I don’t know if I love it for the Jays

Ben Clemens: Olson to Atlanta!

DaveH: Is there any chance Braves could be in on re-signing Freddie and landing Olson? They’ve got some upper minors guys like Pache and Langeliers, who seem like “Oakland-type targets”…

Ben Clemens: One of them happened

Ben Clemens: But I think this means no to Freddie

pegasus: is jack flaherty still good? follow up: not great that you have to think about it for a minute, huh?

Ben Clemens: Hi!

Ben Clemens: I think he’s still good, and I didn’t actually have to think about it

Ben Clemens: Not 2019 Flaherty but above average starter

Colton Anderson: Well there goes Olson

Wyatt: Olson to Braves just now?

Dan McGraw: Do you think IKF gets time at Catcher for the Yankees?

Ben Clemens: NOOOOOOOPE

Ben Clemens: That would be a criminal mis-use of his skillset

Ben Clemens: He’s a good infield defender who played catcher because they needed him to try and had a logjam on the left side of the infield

Ben Clemens: They have two good defensive catchers and no good left-side infield defenders aside from IKF and Donaldson

Ben Clemens: He’s finally in a good spot

Ben Clemens: To maximize his skill set

Ben Clemens: So I think they’ll do it

Colton Anderson: Do you think Cincy is in full tear down mode after the deal yesterday and how much longer before we see another domino in that fall?

Ben Clemens: Yes I do. I think Castillo is the next chip to fall

Sir Nerdlington: If it was discovered that the Tatis injury was from a prohibited activity in his contract, would there be any team recourse given the lockout? Is there a “we were on a break!” loophole?

Ben Clemens: No clue, to be honest with you

Ben Clemens: I have not read the language of the UPC

Phil: Fangraphs should market a browser extension that automatically changes “on the verge of” to “might or might not” (context in this case that sites that were suggesting Olson was definitely headed to the Bronx as of last night).

Ben Clemens: We have an even better solution

Ben Clemens: We just don’t report the tick-tock until it happens

Ben Clemens: There are great places to get baseball rumors

Ben Clemens: We are not really one of them

Ben Clemens: Now, analysis? Pull up a chair

Mike M: What is your updated belief about where Freddie Freeman lands given this trade for Olson?

Ben Clemens: Uh…. Dodgers I guess? I can’t believe he didn’t come back to Atlanta

Colton Anderson: What do you think of the haul Oakland got for Olson? Pache, Langeliers, Cusick and Estes.

Ben Clemens: I like it for Oakland to be honest

Ben Clemens: What are the Braves doing sending out a big chunk of their farm system to keep payroll down? They just reported huge operating profits and Freeman would undoubtedly be good for business

Ben Clemens: I think that if you could get Olson for a song, fine! But this is a weighty return. I like Langeliers, good defensive catching prospects are underrated, Pache could be the real deal and has value even if he isn’t…. this just feels like too much when Freeman was an option

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: Kim stock up given Tatis news?  Take a stab at playing time and stats?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah for usre

Ben Clemens: sure*

Ben Clemens: His brutal performance on balls in play last year could easily have been luck. It could also have not been, so I’ve shaded down my median expectations, but would it surprise you if he came out and hit for a league-average line with great defense? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me

Guest: Hi Ben. When we talk about an owner spending or not spending on salary, what does that actually mean– in terms of their own personal cash flow? Player salaries come from a team’s operating budget, right? And, in an ideal world, are covered by operating revenues? So, what are the personal cashflows to and from the owner, after they’ve purchased the team? Is it just profits at the end of the year- or making up a shortfall in the budget if needed? If an owner is willing to spend more on player salary, does it generally just mean that they are willing to take less profit at the end of the year?

Ben Clemens: Good thing to talk about in light of my ATL comments

Ben Clemens: It’s a lot of the ‘take less profit’ thing

Ben Clemens: You could, if you wanted, run a team at roughly 0 operating profits and just reap tax losses

Ben Clemens: Teams don’t release their books, but given the size of TV contracts, the amount of attendance, and the state of payrolls, there’s room

Ben Clemens: Those profits accrue back to ownership in the end, so it’d just be a matter of accepting fewer of them

Logan: Yeah seems like OAK’s return for Olson is equivalent to a top 5-10 prospect. I’m surprised Braves gave up that much when Freeman was available.

Ben Clemens: Exactly how I feel

Ben Clemens: Olson is great!

Ben Clemens: If I didn’t think I had a shot at signing Freeman, I’d be pretty interested in this

Ben Clemens: But if the Braves wanted to sign Freeman, I’m almost positive they had last look

Didace: “this just feels like too much when Freeman was an option”
Was he? It takes both sides to make a deal. Fans always say “My team should just sign player X”. Seems like they think it’s like going to the market and taking a can off a shelf.

Ben Clemens: If this were the Yankees, I’d be with you

Ben Clemens: The Georgia kid who played for the Georgia team, won an MVP there, and just won a WS? Yeah I feel okay about saying that

Guest: Do you think the new rules are enough for Rutschman, Tork, Witt etc. to break camp with their clubs?

Ben Clemens: hahahaha

Ben Clemens: hahahahahahhaa

Ben Clemens: hahahahahahahaha

Ben Clemens: Oh man

Ben Clemens: Ah, delightful!

Ben Clemens: To be fair, I do think the Royals will bring Witt up if he deserves it

Ben Clemens: But no, what a joke these new incentives are

Ben Clemens: What if I told you you could either have an extra year of cost-controlled Adley Rutschman or a 25% chance at an extra draft pick

Chris: Does Jose Miranda have clear path to 3B for Twins?  They seem a bit thin now at SS/3B.

Ben Clemens: Gio Urshela is insulted you said that

Ben Clemens: No, I do not think so. I think that between Urshela, Arraez, Polanco, and whatever shortstop they sign (presumably?) he’s looking at a utility/DH kinda thing

Wireless Joe Jackson: Do the Twins really see Sanchez as a viable catcher?  They really don’t have anything behind Jeffers after the trades.

Ben Clemens: I mean, he’s not an UN viable catcher

Ben Clemens: he’s below average defensively for the position but it’s not like he’s Ryan Doumit out there

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t PREFER to have him as my everyday catcher but as a part-time DH who backs up Jeffers, it seems fine

Colton Anderson: Now that Oakland got this return, what kind of return can you expect from a guy like Chapman? I know you said his market is down a bit more, but should still bring in a decent haul based on performance and number of year left, right?

Ben Clemens: Yes, I think so

Ben Clemens: I wonder if they’ll go more for the established young major leaguer type of return for him

Ben Clemens: Oakland is pretty good at making those trades

Ben Clemens: Incidentally, ZiPS superstar Dan Szymborski is writing about Olson so I don’t have to cancel this chat, hooray

Appa Yip Yip: A lot of teams are switching to a DH by committee setup to get guys partial rest days, but given that most guys have a fairly pronounced decrease in production when DHing (because they get bored and can’t focus, which, fair) does this even really make sense when you could just give them a full off day and get yourself a proper DH who mashes?

Ben Clemens: I’m a little skeptical of the DH penalty, largely due to some research by Jeff Zimmerman that I can’t find right now but that makes it believable that a lot of the penalty is b/c the hitters who DH often have nagging injuries

Ben Clemens: Which, as you might expect, decrease performance

Ben Clemens: That said, if you can get a real DH and still have playable backups to give your position players some rest, it’s often a good move

Ben Clemens: Having an extra real bat is nice

T: Reports coming out that Atlanta didn’t actually try all that hard to bring Freeman back. That’s surprising. Was a sixth year really that big of a sticking point?

Ben Clemens: I mean, apparently!

Ryan Williams: What are your thoughts on the Cardinals two new reliever additions? Seems like a good diversion of all their “name” pickups that haven’t worked out in recent seasons (Cecil, Miller, Holland)

Ben Clemens: I like VerHagen, less enthused by the Wittgren addition

Appa Yip Yip: Speaking of Chapman, would a package centered around Alejandro Kirk be a good starting point?

Ben Clemens: I think that’s the right caliber of player, but I’m unsure if the A’s would be interested in Kirk. They seem to prioritize catcher defense pretty highly and also just traded for a top catching prospect

Sirras: How much caffeine do you think has been consumed across MLB (including front offices, agents, writers, reporters, etc) since the end of the CBA? Please answer in cups of coffee rounded to the nearest silly 3rd decimal point. For any non-coffee caffeine, please convert to coffee cup equivalent units

Ben Clemens: Love it

Ben Clemens: I think we should do per person per day

Ben Clemens: because otherwise this is just a consulting interview question about how many people work in baseball

Ben Clemens: Four?

Ben Clemens: I’m at four

Didace: As a Nats fan, having Freddie Freeman out of Atlanta is the best move the Nats could possibly make this year.

Ben Clemens:

Colton Anderson: What’s the market look like for a guy like Seiya Suzuki now that signings and trades are heating up again? I know before the lookout I saw a lot of people saying Philly was a good spot for him but haven’t seen anything since.

Ben Clemens: The buzz I keep hearing is that everyone wants him

Ben Clemens: I just think that the risk is kinda high. I’d like to sign him if I were a team, but I’d want to have a lefty who plays the same position in case he’s worse than expected against same-handed pitching

Appa Yip Yip: If the sticking point for Atlanta was the sixth year at 30m, didn’t they just give up more than 30m value worth of prospects?

Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I truly don’t get it. I guess you could make an argument that for them the core is Acuna/Albies/Soroka/Fried and they don’t want anyone older than that on a long-term deal?

Ben Clemens: But that strikes me as overly rigid th inking

Mariners: 1-10 how worried should I be that we are going to miss all the good bats?

Ben Clemens: Let’s say 6.5

Ben Clemens: It’s not like a ton of big names that I thought made sense on the Mariners have gone off the board, but they could use another bat, preferably one who can either play first or outfield?

Ben Clemens: And of course, everyone can use more pitching, but there’s just not a lot of that left

Ben Clemens: Maybe they’ll be involved for Castillo

Wireless Joe Jackson: Fangraphs servers struggling under the load of the compressed offseason?  Hard to load any pages.

Ben Clemens: We are experiencing some site-wide difficulties right now for sure

Ben Clemens: I’m impressed so many people are here talking to me!

T:

Ben Clemens: Seems reasonable to me. I could see higher on Estes, he’s one of those guys that I intermittently hear is underrated and then wonder ‘wait he’s rated?’

Guest: Am I wrong to think Pache isnt really that big a loss? He’s a great defender but his bat hasn’t improved in 3 years.

Ben Clemens: I think you’re wrong

Ben Clemens: Not wildly wrong or anything

Ben Clemens: But his outfield defense is SPECIAL

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s wise to accumulate players like that, because if they make any advance on the offensive side… even just striking out less, let’s say… that’s an All Star

Ben Clemens: His bat hasn’t improved in three years, it’s true

Ben Clemens: But particularly in a giant stadium like Oakland, I think it makes a ton of sense for them to see what happens with his development

Guest: Do you think the 13th hitter roster spot, in addition to the NL DH, creates incentive for teams to carry the likes of say Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario and we could see a pinch hitter/ backup DH/ fringy corner defender type role on every team? A Darin Ruf 2021 being the hoped for best possible outcome?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I could totally see that

Ben Clemens: Having a guy who you mainly like for his bat but who profiles as a backup outfielder might feel weird

Ben Clemens: But if you don’t have a DH, that’s just bonus AB’s for a guy you want for his bat

Baby Jay: If the asking price for players like Ramirez and Marte and Chapman is high, should the Jays stand pat and then reassess their needs at the trade deadline? They have a pretty decent team right now. And they did pretty well at last year’s trade deadline (Berrios, Cimber, Richards).

Ben Clemens: 100% yes

Ben Clemens: I think that the Jays are good as is, and to their credit, they have a bunch of neat prospects they can dangle in trades too

Ben Clemens: But I don’t think the right thing to do is to commit to ‘winning’ one of these trades

Ben Clemens: I think they should figure out what they want to offer, offer it, and then wait for someone else as a trade target if that doesn’t work out

Ben Clemens: One really nice thing about Toronto’s current setup is that they have a wide range of places they could park improvements. Biggio is flexible, I like Espinal but it’s not like he HAS to play, and the outfield has a ton of movable spots

Matt: Who do you think plays LF and 3b for the phillies this year?

Ben Clemens: Alec… Bohm…. ugh I don’t know

Ben Clemens: In theory they should be asking Oakland how many trucks full of prospects they need to back up to get Chapmn

Ben Clemens: We have Adam Haseley projected for 350 PA in left field

Ben Clemens: I mean, go Hoos, love Haseley, but woooooof that’s a tough look for a playoff contender

Appa Yip Yip: So Schwarber is a bad fit for Toronto, but is Freeman a better bad fit? Let Vlad play 3rd, Gurriel has a cannon he can gun guys out at home when grounders squeak through Vlad’s legs.

Ben Clemens: You know, I can kind of see it

Ben Clemens: I think you’d end up with Vlad DH’ing half the time, covering for Freeman, and  playing a FEW games at third

Ben Clemens: It would not be good defensively

Ben Clemens: But boy could that lineup thump

Derek: Another lens through which to view the Braves trade… Is a cheaper (than Freeman) deal for Schwarber or Rizzo (could Castellanos feasibly play 1b??) not more palatable than giving up what they did? Obviously those guys aren’t on Olson’s level, but MAN they gave up a lot of interesting, near-MLB ready talent.

Ben Clemens: Ehhh… I agree with their desire to shop at the top end of the 1b market

Ben Clemens: maybe Castellanos?

Ben Clemens: I just don’t like the idea of taking half-measures in a division that’s tight at the top like the NLE

ryan: do you think billy hamilton would be a good fit on the mariners (or any contending team)? light bat but excellent speed and defense, can start in a pinch, would be the 4th or 5th outfielder

Ben Clemens: Nah

Ben Clemens: ‘light bat’ like I’m ‘over 25’

Ben Clemens: I’m a lot over 25, and he’s a lot under league average with the bat

Ben Clemens: Could he be useful in the playoffs? Definitely

Ben Clemens: Ultimate defensive replacement and pinch runner

Ben Clemens: But I think the White Sox experience with him kind of tells you what’s gonna happen

Ben Clemens: He ran a .329 BABIP…. and hit .220/.242/.378

B’Ryce Hammer: What the EXPLETIVE, EXPLETIVE, EXPLETIVE, are the EXPLETIVE Yankees doing? They needed to sign a top pitcher. They needed a star shortstop. They needed a left handed first baseman.

They have… checks notes… Josh Donaldson and IKF?

Ben Clemens: Yeah uh…. they can still get some of those things, but they did not get them in this trade

Colton Anderson: What are the odds of Philly being in on a guy like Bryant?

Ben Clemens: Could totally see that, and I think it makes sense

Ben Clemens: He’d be their best left fielder and third baseman

Ben Clemens: They should just sign him twice

Thomas: Re: the Jays signing Kikuchi rather than Matz, I think I heard something about Matz and his wife finding the cross-border travel difficult. I also heard a rumour that maybe he isn’t vaccinated, but that’s total speculation (he did have a stint on the COVID IL, but I don’t remember if his vaccination status was disclosed)

Ben Clemens: Well, that helps explain it. I do like the Jays acquiring mid-tier pitching, to be clear

Astros: If the Astros signed Correa, would you see them trading Pena? Is Pena enough to headline (plus other prospects) a Mullins deal?

Ben Clemens: I think so

Ben Clemens: It’s not Pena straight up, but if the Orioles are planning on doing a forever rebuild, they could do worse than trading Mullins and trying to get new prospects in return with longer service time clocks

Ben Clemens: I think that’d be gross, and a real misunderstanding of the point of running a baseball team and doing a rebuild

Ben Clemens: It’s very strange to punt your clock even further ahead when Adley is coming up

Ben Clemens: But it ABSOLUTELY wouldn’t surprise me if they said they needed an extra two years of prospect accumulation to feel good about trying in the majors

harry dipoto: what is the twins plan? they picked up IKF (and traded him immediatly), landed Sonny Gray, got urshela and sanchez, have been linked to story and manaea today and gave upgarver IKF and donaldson. If they want to compete I think they will need another arm or 2 or 5. Gray, Bundy, Ober, Ryan, Dobnak isn’t a contending team rotation in my opinion

Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I don’t know what their plan is

Ben Clemens: They’re trying some one red paperclip nonsense but I don’t know what the end state is going to be?

Ben Clemens: They need pitching — I like a lot of their rotation but it’s just not bulky enough at the top

ROY: Isn’t the top-2 ROY voting getting a full year of service a reason to promote the absolute stud prospects sooner? If Orioles are convinced Adley is a top-2 player and will win ROY, would they bring him up instead of wait 4 weeks?

Ben Clemens: They’d obviously wait 8 weeks

Ben Clemens: Wander Franco didn’t win rookie of the year last year

Ben Clemens: In fact, that top-2 ROY thing is a reason to hold them back even a little more

Ben Clemens: If you’re unsure

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s a useful system for incentivizing quicker promotions at all

171: I understand the “LOL Orioles” stuff about a forever rebuild but can we all collectively wait until they actually trade away one of these players before we assume that they’re going to? Just because Buster Olney tweets that they’re “discussing” a trade of Mullins/Means doesn’t mean its happening.

Ben Clemens: if ‘it absolutely wouldn’t surprise me’ counts as that, I don’t know what to tell you

Zach: Are you surprised the Padres aren’t pushing for Freeman more than reported? If he wants to be in CA then it makes all too much sense especially since Tatis is out and it would keep him from the Dodgers.

Ben Clemens: Eh….. I think they’re only doing that if they find a taker for Hosmer

Ben Clemens: So maybe they are having some back-channel conversations with Freeman to see if he’s interested while they work on Hosmer deals, but I thinkt hat is just a bit too much wasted money. I’m all for teams spending more but that’s just a LOT for SD

Bread Miller: Why are the White Sox making such small-time moves? They could use a real RF and 2B but seem content with stopgaps

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I wonder if Nick Madrigal is available

Ben Clemens: I can’t tell you what they’re thinking, I find it strange too

Ben Clemens: It helps that the division sucks

Ben Clemens: But the new playoff rules are not good for them

Ben Clemens: And I think it’s a fair statement that in this current build, they are probably the third-best division winner

RTJ: What do you think of Correa to SD on a massive 1 year deal to fill FTJ

Ben Clemens: I’m curious where all this Correa 1-year deal buzz has been coming from

Ben Clemens: If I’m him, I have little to no interest in it

Ben Clemens: But if someone offers him say, 1/50, and he wants to do it, SD seems like an okay fit? I guess they could guarantee him he’d get to play short the whole season or sometihng

Ben Clemens: I think if I were him, I’d want to go a place where I wouldn’t be the second-best shortstop on the team when everyone is fully healthy

Ben Clemens: I mean, maybe he’s just better than Tatis, but Tatis is the incumbent etc.

baby shark: the nationals seem to be picking up as many guys from the 2019 team as possible (they signed anibal sanchez, parra, doolittle, their might be another idk). Is this purely a fan pleasing tactic as they go through a rebuild, or is their actual meaning to these signings.

Ben Clemens: Mostly fan-pleasing, but I generally like the idea of short-term deals for Doolittle and Sanchez. They can eat some innings, and if they’re good you could always trade them, and they’re fun for fans

Cen Blements: what are the odds of freeman to the not dodgers?

Ben Clemens: 50%

Ben Clemens: It’ll happen, or it won’t

Ben Clemens: I honestly hvae no clue how serious these Dodgers rumors are

Farhandrew Zaidman: More likely for the Dodgers to sign another starter, or sign Freddie Freeman? (Bonus question) if Freeman signs, that pushes Muncy to 2B – where does Lux play?

Ben Clemens: Center field

Ben Clemens: OBv

Ben Clemens: We know they like him out there

Ben Clemens: But uh, there’s a DH, they’d make it work

Ben Clemens: The Dodgers loved having 9 players for 8 spots, I’m sure they’d love having 10 players for 9 spots

171: There are reports that Nelson Cruz signed with Washington, in part, because the FO told him that they’re going to make more moves to become competitive. Do you think either side actually believes that, or is this just lip service for fans?

Ben Clemens: Depends on what competitive means

Ben Clemens: If they told him ‘we’re making the playoffs’, nah, don’t believe

Ben Clemens: If they said they want to be around .500 and convince Juan Soto there’s a future, definitely believe

Norm: I feel like the Royals core is comparable in talent and proximity to the majors to that of Detroit’s but they haven’t done jack this offseason. What gives?

Ben Clemens: They made their moves last year and it didn’t really pan out

Ben Clemens: I think that they”ll probably give it a year to breathe before trying again

Appa Yip Yip: The Correa 1 year stuff comes because if he signs a long term deal his old agency will get money but if he signs a 1 year deal next year Boras will get all the money for his long term one. Some people think very poorly of Boras for no particular reason.

McHugh: What do you see Collin McHugh’s contract being worth? Any guesses on where he lands?

Ben Clemens: I think Boston is a pretty reasonable fit at this point. I thought St. Louis but between VerHagen and Wittgren I dunno

Ben Clemens: Contract wise…. 2/25?

Teddy: Are you higher on Cedric Mullins or Bryan Reynolds?

Ben Clemens: Mullins

Ben Clemens: Both good though

Ben Clemens: I’m a little more skeptical of Reynolds’s defense than I am of Mullins’s bat

Braves: How should I feel about the Olson trade as a Braves fan? Tough as a fan to see Freddie leave but objectively this feels like a good move. Olson is really good.

Ben Clemens: If you thought the team was picking between signing Freeman and signing Olson, this is a bad deal

Ben Clemens: Freeman only costs money and we know they’re raking it in

Ben Clemens: They report their financials

Ben Clemens: If they’re spending the savings on something and the money wasn’t available, you should like it

Ben Clemens: If we assume Freeman was out the door, then the Braves needed a big bat, and they got the biggest one on the market

Ben Clemens: Great

Guest: do you think the ban of the shift adds more value to defensive first players i.e andrelton simmons

Ben Clemens: I think it does but that it’s marginal

Ben Clemens: Simmons was a standout defender in shifted setups too

Jfast: How do you feel about the combo of McCormick/Meyers/Siri as the Astros’ CF platoon? Who would you start / would you try to upgrade?

Ben Clemens: I’d start Myers, I am kind of enamored of him of late

Ben Clemens: Prospect/young major leaguer crush du jour, let’s say

harry dipoto: would you trade a julio rodriguez and/or george kirby if it helped you land a proven guy like jram or reynolds?

Ben Clemens: Not and, that’s for sure

Ben Clemens: Or? I’d be very tempted to. I think that prospect-clutching has gone too far if you can get someone like J Ram

ChatzMcGee: Freddie is from Cali.

Ben Clemens: Yeeesh embarrassing for me

Ben Clemens: Oh wow, from Orange County no less

a’s and reds: which one of the pitchers on the teams wanting to have a firesale (mainly a’s and reds )would bring in the most?

Ben Clemens: Castillo

Farhandrew Zaidman: It’s ok, Orange County is the Georgia of California.

Ben Clemens: I was going to fire off a witty rejoinder but I’m with you

Ben Clemens: STOP THE PRESSES

Ben Clemens: ROCKIES WITH A BIG MOVE

Ben Clemens: Chad Kuhl as a swingman

Farhandrew Zaidman: Is David Price just…not a starting pitcher anymore? In all the variations of the Dodgers’ rotation, I haven’t seen him mentioned.

Ben Clemens: Right? I’m rather surprised too

Ben Clemens: But it does seem like there’s a smoke/fire thing here. Everyone is reporting this and at this point I’ve been incepted into believing it

Eric Hosmer: Do you think Preller is a good GM

Ben Clemens: No. I think he’s a good talent evaluator with good strategic ideas though

Ben Clemens: Would love to have him in my franchise, with maybe more of an analytical type as GM

Ben Clemens: I dunno what he’s like to work for but I can imagine that having a guy who is such a famous workaholic might not be fun, also

Ben Clemens: I like that Meg isn’t scouting minor league games on the weekends and calling me for my impressions

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hi Ben. The White Sox have an extra closer, and a glut of corner/1B bats. Is there any deal that makes sense for them that addresses their 2B issue? Thanks.

Ben Clemens: Is this the time whre I’m strong enough not to make a Madrigal-for-Kimbrel joke?

Ben Clemens: It is not

Ben Clemens: They should trade Kimbrel for Nick Madrigal

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure, I’m writing up the second base power rankings at the moment and nothing jumps out to me

Ben Clemens: Like… Whit Merrifield? Is that a good fit?

Mike: Is a McNeil for Bummer framework something that’s feasible? McNeil seems to provide more WAR in terms of ZiPS while Bummer gives the Mets a good reliever behind Diaz, May, and Lugo

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the Mets want to trade McNeil

Ben Clemens: I think they’re gonna end up trading J.D. Davis

Ben Clemens: Trading McNeil means a lot of Cano at second and that’s too risky imo

Lorenzo: Besides Luis Castillo and possibly John Means, can you name any other SP that may be available via trade?

Lorenzo: ……forgot Manaea and Montas, add them too

Ben Clemens: Yeah, the Oakland duo are hot commodities

Ben Clemens: Mike Minor

Ben Clemens: Luke Weaver

Ben Clemens: Shane Bieber? You’d have to really pile on the enticements there

Jordan: Ken Rosenthal is championing the “Correa 1 year contract” talk on Twitter, which personally, I think is ridiculous

Ben Clemens: Agree but I mean, he knows people

Derek: Would a team that had Juan Soto in every lineup spot but also Juan Soto at every defensive position be a good team? My gut tells me yes but also that this team would play some loooong games

Ben Clemens: I think they’d be quite good

Ben Clemens: It’d be awkward at catcher, short, and second for sure

Ben Clemens: but ‘Juan Soto can’t field’ talk is overblown

Ben Clemens: He’s gotten better

Ben Clemens: and he’s pretty clearly a good athlete, you know?

Ben Clemens: It’s not like he’s Vladdy Jr. or Kyle Schwarber out there

Ben Clemens: Did you know that he has above-average sprint speed and was in the 90th percentile for RF defense per Statcast last year?

Dan: What’s the most important reason the best hitters tend to play the easier defensive positions, rarity of a human being truly elite at multiple things, increased need/difficulty of practicing defense, different ideal body type, something else?

Ben Clemens: The ideal body type thing definitely matters

Ben Clemens: I think it’s just all of these things

Ben Clemens: But it’s also a self-selection thing. In positions where defense matters relatively more, you funnel the better defenders even at the expense of bat

Joe shlabotnik: Braves and Mets just got better. Phillies need a big name to make it work for them. Who you got? Kb? Castellanos? Correa?????

Ben Clemens: KB

Ben Clemens: An earlier commenter talked me into it

Appa Yip Yip: Freddie’s parents are Canadian he has a truer home to come back to. True, north, strong, Freeman.

JJ: Rosenthal also implied that the Cubs shouldn’t be counted out of Correa when talking about the Simmons deal, so its hard to beleive him right now.

Ben Clemens: I’m pretty sure that the Cubs have a person on the payroll who just calls every scoop reporter and talks their ear off about how they’re in on the big names

Ben Clemens: Maybe they are!

Ben Clemens: But there’s been SO much smoke for a team that isn’t really trying to win in 2022 if you look at their roster

Dodger Fan: Am I crazy for thinking that we don’t need Freddie and that we should spend the money on a starter instead?  We should have JTurner DH pretty often and I still want to give Lux a bit of a leash.

Ben Clemens: You wouldn’t be… if there were starters to fill this voi

Ben Clemens: void*

Ben Clemens: The starters are all gone

Ben Clemens: If I use the Roster Resource Free Agent Tracker (and I will, because it is great)

Ben Clemens: Let’s see… Tyler Anderson?

Ben Clemens: Zack Greinke?

Ben Clemens: Danny Duffy?

Ben Clemens: The pickings are slim

Matt (Oceanside): I love the “what-if” game….sooo….If the Dodgers sign Freeman and trade for for Castillo from Cincy…annnd the Astros re-sign Correa….and they meet in the world series this year…who ya got Ben???

Ben Clemens: Dodgers

Ben Clemens: ez

Ben Clemens: I just think the Dodgers are a better team now… and they’re getting more players

🙂: with brady coming back, it got me thinking about mj, which got me thinking about dion and bo which got me thinking about what current mlb player would be the best 2 sport athlete? my knee-jerk reaction was judge

Ben Clemens: Judge seems like a solid pick

Ben Clemens: Buxton

Ben Clemens: I can’t prove this but Jacob deGrom

Matt (Oceanside): What would the Dodgers have to give up to acquire Castillo from the Reds? Would Pepiot, Outman, and Busch get it done? Dodgers seem to have a really good stable of prospects with an underrated system, no? THANKS BEN!!!!

Ben Clemens: To be honest, I have a tough time figuring out prospect returns involving the Dodgers

Ben Clemens: They have an interesting mix of guys who look like high-probability major leaguers to me without a ton of top-of-the-market standouts currently in the minors

Ben Clemens: Obviously Smith and Lux have graduated

Ben Clemens: But If I’m Cincy I hang up unless they put Busch and Miguel Vargas in the deal

Ben Clemens: You have to squeeze LA when you trade with them for something they need, imo

Dodger Fan: Also: where’s the Kenley Jansen news?

Ben Clemens: No idea!

Ben Clemens: I’m surprised we haven’t heard more

Jordan: Trout is build like a linebacker, he could be a 2 sport star, he’s very Bo’ish

Ben Clemens: Three years ago I just would have said Trout

Ben Clemens: If it’s peak physical Trout, I’m in still

Ben Clemens: I don’t want him playing football though

M’s Fan: is dipoto’s openness a problem? He sets expectations sky high….and if he disappoints, people will be calling for his head.

Ben Clemens: I think that’s good, to be honest

Ben Clemens: Is it a problem for him? It might be

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a net good for Mariners fans though

Ben Clemens: I support the front office having high expectations whenever possible

Joe shlabotnik: Bell / Soto / Cruz – over under 80 homers

Ben Clemens: Our projection is way over (98) so I’ll take the over

Ben Clemens: if you said 95…. I think I’d still take the over

Ben Clemens: Soto is just gonna blow up for 55 one day

Outside Animals: I would love to have an post season retrospective of moves that seemed obvious at the time that didn’t happen. And a comparison towards what teams actually did.

Ben Clemens: When I’m not tirelessly writing about all these moves I’m probably gonna do that

Ben Clemens: I want to write about that and a retrospective of the Braves’ new stadium

Ben Clemens: JC Bradbury did a very interesting study of it and I just haven’t had time to write about it/interview him about it given the rush of baseball news

For the Joke: Phillies sign Castellanos and play him at third.

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: Castellanos could go all Bane-in-Dark-Knight-Rises on Bohm

Ben Clemens: You think defensive miscues at third are your ally?

Ben Clemens: You adopted being bad at third base

Ben Clemens: I was born in it

Sabey Sabes: Nice breakdown on the Twins-Yanks swap. If this doesn’t yield Trevor Story for  Minnesota … what the heck are they doing?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I think that this trade is going to look AWFUL for them if they don’t turn aroudn and spend the money

Ben Clemens: Honestly I’d prefer they didn’t make the trade and still spent the money

Ben Clemens: But, if it’s one or the other

Derek: What about a team of Juan Sotos on offense and Alec Bohms on defense?

Ben Clemens: Yiiiiikes I think I’d be more worried there

Ben Clemens: But they still get to have 9 Soto’s

Insert Witty Name Here: As a Phillies fan, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry at that joke. But I’m also worried Dombrowski is asking Casty’s agent about his positional flexibility.

Ben Clemens: Look, I’ll cheer you up

Ben Clemens: If the Phillies signed Castellanos, he’d be one of the better left field options

Ben Clemens: There’s no CHANCE they’d talk to him about the infield

Ben Clemens: unless it was first because Hoskins somehow got dealt

Ben Clemens: What if the A’s would take back Hoskins as part of the Chapman return?

Broken Bat: Did the new CBA do anything to help the MILB players? I get they are not part of the union, but still, what could they have done to really help the future of baseball?

Ben Clemens: One thing that I think is big in the new CBA is that players on the 40 man but not in the majors get paid more

Ben Clemens: But generally speaking, there wasn’t a lot about the minors in the CBA

Ben Clemens: Not giving the commissioner unilateral power to cut roster sizes was good, I guess?

Insert Witty Name Here: Damn that does cheer me up. Love Hoskins, but I think Chapman and his defense is a huge upgrade right?

Ben Clemens: Oh hugely so

Ben Clemens: I don’t know if they’re actually doing that…. but there’s no world where the Phillies sign Castellanos and then he ends up in the infield

Ben Clemens: Or sorry, at third

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Here is something I always wondered about players with No Trade Clauses.

Let’s say, you’re Robinson Cano. The Mets tell you that you will receive almost zero playing time. Would you be more receptive of accepting a trade if you’re reasonably sure that you will receive more playing time? Or do you just say screw it, and make them release you?

Ben Clemens: I think that in situations like that, playing time and pride both play a big role

Ben Clemens: But generally speaking you can find a way to make it work

Ben Clemens: Alright, I think that was a fun way to end this, and I need to eat some lunch before hunkering down for the afternoon in strange trades I want to write about

Ben Clemens: It was an absolute joy chatting today

Ben Clemens: Baseball being back is GREAT

Ben Clemens: Have a wonderful week everyone